Policy Implications of Warming Permafrost November 27, 2012 Kevin Schaefer Ted Schuur Dave McGuire Policy Implications of Warming Permafrost

Policy Implications of Warming Permafrost

November 27, 2012

Kevin SchaeferTed SchuurDave McGuire

Policy Implications of

Warming Permafrost


Focus Discussion on Report

• United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP)

• Nov 2012 at Doha Conference of Parties (CoP)

• Authors– Coordinator: Ron Witt– Kevin Schaefer– Hugues Lantuit– Vladimir E. Romanovsky– Edward A. G. Schuur

• http://www.unep.org/pdf/permafrost.pdf


Impact of Thawing Permafrost on Global Climate• ~1700 Gt of carbon in permafrost as frozen organic matter

• Thawing permafrost will release CO2 and methane into atmosphere


The Permafrost Carbon Feedback

• Amplifies surface warming

• Irreversible• Emissions for centuries

Projected annual permafrost emissions for

A1B scenario


Estimates of Permafrost Fluxes

Study Permafrost Carbon Emissions (Gt C)2100 2200 2300 Uncertainty

Schneider von Deimling et al. (2012)a 63 (82) 302 (392) 380 (493) 34%

Koven et al. (2011)a 62 (80) nac na 11%

Schuur et al. (2009)a,b 85 (110) na na 15%

Schaefer et al. (2011)a 104 (135) 190 (246) na 34%

a CO2 equivalent calculated assuming 2.7% of total emissions is methane (Schuur et al. 2011) and a global warming potential of 33 (Shindell et al. 2009)b calculated from emission rates in the paperc not available


Impact on Climate Change Treaty

• 2°C warming target• Account for permafrost

emissions• AR5 Projections don’t

include permafrost emissions

• Temperatures higher with feedback

• Emissions targets may be too high

• Risk overshooting 2°C warming target

Temperature Projections 4th

Assessment Report


Recommendation 1: Special IPCC report on permafrost emissions

• IPCC special assessment report– Future permafrost degradation– Permafrost CO2 and methane emissions

– Projections with permafrost carbon feedback

• Complement current projections• Support negotiation of emissions targets


Recommendation 2: Create National permafrost monitoring networks

• Issue: Current networks not adequate

• Take over TSP/CALM– increase funding– standard

measurements– expand coverage

• All countries, especially Russia, Canada, China, United States

Circumpolar Active Layer Monitoring (CALM)Thermal State of Permafrost (TSP)


Recommendation 3: Plan for adaptation• Issue: No plans to

address infrastructure impacts

• Nations should develop adaptation Plans– Identify at-risk

infrastructure– Evaluate risks, costs,

mitigation

• All countries, especially Russia, Canada, China, United States


Breakout Objectives

• How to implement recommendations?1) Special IPCC Assessment2) Nationalize CALM and TSP3) Adaptation Plans

• Focus on (1)• International Permafrost Association will

focus on (2) and (3)• All suggestions welcome


Questions to consider

• How to make special assessment a priority?

• Who should we talk to?• Which agencies should be involved?• How should science community be

organized?• What should the special assessment

include?


Thank you


Acknowledgements

• Project Coordinator: Ron Witt, UNEP• Authors

– Kevin Schaefer, University of Colorado– Hugues Lantuit, Alfred Wegener Institute – Vladimir E. Romanovsky, University of Alaska

Fairbanks– Edward A. G. Schuur, University of Florida

• Full report: http://www.unep.org/pdf/permafrost.pdf


Permafrost is permanently frozen ground• Occurs in 24% of Northern

Hemisphere land


Permafrost has begun to thaw

Permafrost

Active Layer Active layer thickness increasing

Permafrost temperatures rising


Permafrost will continue to thaw

Projection of active layer thickness for A1B scenario

year

Active Layer Thickness (cm)


Impacts of Climate Change on Permafrost

Ecosystems Infrastructure

Documents

Policy Implications of Warming Permafrost November 27, 2012 Kevin Schaefer Ted Schuur Dave McGuire Policy Implications of Warming Permafrost