Political Socialization and Public Opinion · Political Socialization and Public Opinion American Government: Continuity and Change ... Larggge news organizations

Ch t 11Chapter 11

Political Socialization Political Socialization and Public Opinionand Public Opinion

American Government: Continuity and Change9th Edition9th Edition

How Political Socialization and other Factors Influence Opinion Formation

P liti l S i li tiPolitical SocializationThe process through which an individual acquires particular political orientationsacquires particular political orientationsThe learning process by which people acquire their political beliefs and valuesacquire their political beliefs and values

p.390

Agents of Socialization

F ilFamilyChildren learn their political values from their parentstheir parents

School & PeersStarting very early students are taught Starting very early, students are taught respect for the US ~ Pledge of AllegianceAs we get older our peers become a very As we get older, our peers become a very important factorSchool has a liberalizing effect on studentsg

Critical thinking ~ Questioning the status quo p.391-394

p.392

Most first year college Most first year college students*students*

p.392


Mass MediaSurveys estimate that 40% of American d lt t h 30 h f TV/ k & hild adults watch 30 hrs of TV/week & children

even moreTV/radio talk shows often skew their TV/radio talk shows often skew their information2004 ~ Survey estimated that 40% ylearned about candidates from late night entertainment shows

p.394-396


l d l d fReligion ~ 2nd largest predictor of vote after political party ~ 76% consider religion an important part to their livesreligion an important part to their lives

’72 ~ Richard Nixon referred to religious people as the “silent majority”p p j y’79 ~ Jerry Falwell – Moral Majority

Dissolved in ‘89

’88 ~ Pat Robertson – Christian Coalition700 Club

p.396-397

p.397

Most likely to vote conservative*Most likely to vote conservative*

p.397


Race & EthnicityBlack children generally show positive f li b t A i t l / tifeelings about Am society, less w/ timeSome stark differences in black v. white attitudes regarding US response to attitudes regarding US response to Hurricane Katrina ~ Next SlideHispanics & Native Ams similar opinionsp pNational origin can divide an ethnic group

Hispanics from Cuba = Conservative/RepubHispanics from Mexico = Liberal/Democratic

p.397-398

p.398

p.399


G dGenderPolls indicate men & women differ on a variety of issuesvariety of issues

Women nurturers ~ Men aggressive

Political PartiesPolitical PartiesSingle women = DemocratsWhite men = RepublicansWhite men = Republicans

Men & women close on military affairs following 9/11 but moving apartfollowing 9/11, but moving apart

p.398-400


G dGenderPolls indicate men & women differ on a variety of issuesvariety of issues

Women nurturersWomen nurturers ~ Men aggressiveMen aggressive

Political PartiesPolitical PartiesSingle women = DemocratsWhite men = RepublicansWhite men = Republicans

Men & women close on military affairs following 9/11 but moving apartfollowing 9/11, but moving apart

p.398-400

p.400

Generally speaking, women are more supportive of Generally speaking, women are more supportive of social welfare policies*social welfare policies*

p.400

social welfare policiessocial welfare policies


A H d id d ff li i l i iAge ~ Has a decided effect on political opinions

p.400-401


A H d id d ff li i l i iAge ~ Has a decided effect on political opinions

p.400-401Age trends*Age trends*


RegionImmigrants naturally settled in areas w/ th f i il li i t & those of similar religious customs & traditions

Scandinavians in MinnesotaScandinavians in MinnesotaIrish, Italian, Jewish in large urban center of the Northeast

North v. South ~ Natl v. States RightsWest ~ Avoid city life & seek as much i d d iblindependence as possible

p.401

Kerry ~ Large cities, Northeast & West Coast

Bush ~ 59% of rural & small towns, the South & Midwest

Figure from Chap 1 Text Only ~ p.401

Kerry ~ Large cities, Kerry ~ Large cities, Northeast & West Northeast & West CoastCoast

Bush ~ 59% of rural & Bush ~ 59% of rural & small towns, the South small towns, the South & Midwest& Midwest

Text Only ~ p.401Figure from Chap 1

The Impact of Events

K liti l t l i t t l Key political events play a very important role in a person’s socialization ~ Next SlideNixon’s resignation in 1974Nixon s resignation in 1974

Impression on young peopleGovernment not always right or honest

Survey in 2006 (Age 18-20) ~ ContrastFailed to report a single political event that affected them during their early school yearsaffected them during their early school years

Many major studies conducted in the aftermath of Watergate & the Vietnam War

l d d ti d ff i th t t f revealed a dramatic drop-off in the trust of the govt ~ Upcoming Slide

p.402

p.402


Largest impact of political Largest impact of political socialization in recent history socialization in recent history (Watergate & Viet Nam)(Watergate & Viet Nam)(Watergate & Viet Nam)(Watergate & Viet Nam)


p.403

p.403What is the most frequently mentioned problem?

p.403What is the most frequently mentioned problem? Crime

HalfHalf Wa PointWa Point

Ch t 11

HalfHalf--Way PointWay Point

Chapter 11



Public Opinion and Polling

h h bl h k b lWhat the public thinks about a particular issue/set of issues at any point in timeP bli O i i P llPublic Opinion Polls

Interviews/surveys w/ samples of citizens that are used to estimate the feelings & beliefs of are used to estimate the feelings & beliefs of the entire population

George Gallup (1901-1983), Ph.Dg p ( ),

U of Iowa ~ Founder of modern pollingHe believed ldrs must constantly take public opinions—no matter how short lived—into consideration

p.403-404

Public Opinion and Polling

h h bl h k b lWhat the public thinks about a particular issue/set of issues at any point in timeP bli O i i P llPublic Opinion Polls

Interviews/surveys w/ samples of citizens that are used to estimate the feelings & beliefs of are used to estimate the feelings & beliefs of the entire population

George GallupGeorge Gallup (1901-1983), Ph.Dg pg p ( ),

U of Iowa ~ Founder of modern pollingFounder of modern pollingHe believed ldrs must constantly take public opinions—no matter how short lived—into consideration

p.403-404

The History of Public Opinion Research

1883 ~ Boston Globe sent reporters to selected precincts to poll voters as they exited1916 ~ Literary Digest mailed survey

i i l ( h b k questions to potential voters (phonebook, club rosters, city directories, mail order lists etc )lists, etc.)

Correctly predicted the Preselection from 1920 to 1932election from 1920 to 1932

p.404-407

History of Public Opinion Research

Public opinion polling as we know it did not begin to develop until the 1930s

Walter Lippman’s, Public Opinion (1922) stated that pp , p ( )public opinion was too limited

Earlier straw polls used unscientific surveys to gauge public opinion on issues & policiesg g p p p

Literary Digest ~ Incorrectly predicted that Alf Landon would defeat FDR in 1936George Gallup

Correctly predicted the 1936 presidential contestTechniques became more sophisticated in the 1940s.Dewey incorrectly predicted as winner

p.404-405

History of Public Opinion Research

Public opinion polling as we know it did not begin to develop until the 1930s

Walter Lippman’s, Public Opinion (1922) stated that pp , p ( )public opinion was too limited

Earlier straw polls used unscientific surveys to gauge public opinion on issues & policiesg g p p p

Literary Digest ~ Incorrectly predicted that Alf Literary Digest ~ Incorrectly predicted that Alf Landon would defeat FDR in 1936Landon would defeat FDR in 1936George Gallup

Correctly predicted the 1936 presidential contestTechniques became more sophisticated in the 1940s.Dewey incorrectly predicted as winner

p.404-405

George Gallup Jr. now chairs the organizationchairs the organization

Recent Efforts to Measure Public Opinion

National Election Study conducted at National Election Study conducted at University of Michigan since 1952InternetInternet

Harris Interactive achieved a 99% accuracy rate of 73 political contests in November rate of 73 political contests in November 2000Weakness: Many poory p& elderly not on-line

p.406-407

Traditional Public Opinion PollsHow questions are askedHow questions are asked

Have you stopped beating your wife?Emotional issues~abortion, same sex marriage, etc.

Selecting the sampleSelecting the sampleRandom Sampling ~ A method of poll selection that gives each person the same chance of being selectedStratified Sampling ~ A variation of random sampling; p g p gcensus data are used to divide the country into four sampling regions. Sets of counties and standard metropolitan statistical areas are then randomly selected in proportion to the total national population

Contacting respondentsTelephone polls most frequent (95% have)

Cell phones may affect in futurePollsters exempt from the no-call list

Constitutionally protected free speech issue p.407-409

Traditional Public Opinion PollsHow questions are askedHow questions are asked

Have you stopped beating your wife?Emotional issues~abortion, same sex marriage, etc.

Selecting the sampleSelecting the sampleRandom Sampling ~ A method of poll selection that gives each person the same chance of being selectedStratified Sampling ~ A variation of random sampling; p g p gcensus data are used to divide the country into four sampling regions. Sets of counties and standard metropolitan statistical areas are then randomly selected in proportion to the total national population

Contacting respondentsTelephone polls most frequentTelephone polls most frequent (95% have)

Cell phones may affect in futurePollsters exempt from the no-call list

Constitutionally protected free speech issue p.407-409

Political PollsPush Polls Polls taken for the purpose of Push Polls ~ Polls taken for the purpose of providing “pushing” voters away from a particular candidate

“Would you vote for Bob if you knew he was a child molester?”

Tracking Polls ~ Continuous surveys that enable a Tracking Polls Continuous surveys that enable a campaign to chart its daily rise or fall in support

Next Slide

E i P ll P ll d d l d lli Exit Polls ~ Polls conducted at selected polling places on Election Day ~ Sample every 10th voter

Large news organizationsg gEastern to Pacific time zones ~ ’80 Carter conceded to Reagan before polls in west closed ~ no longer allowed

p.409-411

Political PollsPush PollsPush Polls Polls taken for the purpose of Push PollsPush Polls ~ Polls taken for the purpose of providing “pushing” voters away from a particular candidate

“Would you vote for Bob if you knew he was a “Would you vote for Bob if you knew he was a child molester?”child molester?”

Tracking Polls ~ Continuous surveys that enable a Tracking Polls Continuous surveys that enable a campaign to chart its daily rise or fall in support

Next Slide

E i P ll P ll d d l d lli Exit Polls ~ Polls conducted at selected polling places on Election Day ~ Sample every 10th voter

Large news organizationsg gEastern to Pacific time zones ~ ’80 Carter conceded to Reagan before polls in west closed ~ no longer allowed

p.409-411

Small samples contacted pevery 24-hours

p.410

Shortcomings of PollingV t N S d it ll d i th Voter News Svc made exit poll errors during the 20000 presidential election

Failed to est # of voters accurately & yinaccurate exit poll modelIncorrectly estimated the number of African American & Cuban votersAmerican & Cuban votersResults lead to predict Al Gore winner in FL & therefore overall

VNS di b d d i 2003VNS disbanded in 2003Major networks & Associated Press joined together to form a new polling consortium, the og o o a po g o o u ,National Election Pool

p.411-412

Shortcomings of PollingV t N S d it ll V t N S d it ll Voter News Svc made exit poll errors Voter News Svc made exit poll errors during the 20000 presidential electionduring the 20000 presidential election

Failed to est # of voters accurately & yinaccurate exit poll modelIncorrectly estimated the number of African American & Cuban votersAmerican & Cuban votersResults lead to predict Al Gore winner in Results lead to predict Al Gore winner in FL & therefore overallFL & therefore overall

VNS di b d d i 2003VNS disbanded in 2003Major networks & Associated Press joined together to form a new polling consortium, the og o o a po g o o u ,National Election Pool

p.411-412

Shortcomings of Polling

S li E M i f ESampling Error ~ Margin of ErrorA measure of accuracyIf margin of error is larger than the difference = Too g gclose to call

51% to 49% w/ error of 3%

Limited Respondent OptionsLimited Respondent OptionsDo you like this class? Yes - No

Lack of InformationDifficult to respond if little is known

Difficulty Measuring IntensityEmotional level can affect answersEmotional level can affect answers

Abortion v. Eliminating the Electoral Collegep.411-412

Why We Form and Express Political Opinions

P l B fiPersonal BenefitsPolls indicate we are becoming more “I” oriented“Vote with your pocketbook”y p

Political KnowledgeThe more one understands about the political process, the more likely he is to become involvedthe more likely he is to become involvedUSDE report suggests today’s college grads have less civic knowledge than HS grads 50 yrs ago2002 N tl G hi t d h d th t 87% f 2002 Natl Geographic study showed that 87% of Americans (18-24) could not find Iraq on a map2004 Annenberg study states that men know more b t i b t t th f th i about issues, but women vote more than men of their

own income & educational level ~ Go figure p.412-414


P l B fiPersonal BenefitsPolls indicate we are becoming more “I” oriented“Vote with your pocketbook”y p

Political KnowledgeThe more one understands about the political process, the more likely he is to become involvedthe more likely he is to become involvedUSDE report suggests today’s college grads have less civic knowledge than HS grads 50 yrs ago2002 N tl G hi t d h d th t 87% f 2002 N tl G hi t d h d th t 87% f 2002 Natl Geographic study showed that 87% of 2002 Natl Geographic study showed that 87% of Americans (18Americans (18--24) could not find Iraq on a map24) could not find Iraq on a map2004 Annenberg study states that men know more b t i b t t th f th i about issues, but women vote more than men of their

own income & educational level ~ Go figure p.412-414

p.413


Cues from LeadersHigh visibility & access to the media gives leaders tremendous power to affect (manipulate) opinione e dous po e o a ec ( a pu a e) op oGeo W. original call for spt of Afgan & Iraq War

Political Ideology3 ll l30% ~ Conservative = Smaller, less activist govt. Against abortion & same sex marriage29% ~ Liberal = Favor activist govt. Okay w/ abortion & i Sh ld h l h & same sex marriage. Should help the poor/disadvantaged35% ~ Most classify themselves as Moderate06% ~ Didn’t know/refused to label self

p.412-414

The Effects of Public Opinion &pPolling on Government & Politics

P liti i & t d $M / t t k l Politicians & govt spend $Ms/yr to take pulse of the public ~ Reliance on polls hard to judgeBenjamin Ginsberg (Pol Sci Johns Hopkins) ~ Benjamin Ginsberg (Pol Sci Johns Hopkins) Critical of the passive voice of public opinion. Should go w/ active response (unsolicited phone calls/letters)phone calls/letters)George Gallup’s response ~ One might as well insist that a thermometer makes the weatherEarly poll success/failure can make/ruin a candidate

p.414-416

Ch t 11Chapter 11



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Political Socialization and Public Opinion · Political Socialization and Public Opinion American Government: Continuity and Change ... Larggge news organizations