Political Socialization and Public Opinion Socialization and Public Opinion American Government: Continuity and Change ... Larggge news organizations

  • Published on
    23-Apr-2018

  • View
    213

  • Download
    1

Embed Size (px)

Transcript

<ul><li><p>Ch t 11Chapter 11</p><p>Political Socialization Political Socialization and Public Opinionand Public Opinion</p><p>American Government: Continuity and Change9th Edition9th Edition</p></li><li><p>How Political Socialization and other Factors Influence Opinion Formation</p><p>P liti l S i li tiPolitical SocializationThe process through which an individual acquires particular political orientationsacquires particular political orientationsThe learning process by which people acquire their political beliefs and valuesacquire their political beliefs and values</p><p>p.390</p></li><li><p>Agents of Socialization</p><p>F ilFamilyChildren learn their political values from their parentstheir parents</p><p>School &amp; PeersStarting very early students are taught Starting very early, students are taught respect for the US ~ Pledge of AllegianceAs we get older our peers become a very As we get older, our peers become a very important factorSchool has a liberalizing effect on studentsg</p><p>Critical thinking ~ Questioning the status quo p.391-394</p></li><li><p>p.392</p></li><li><p>Most first year college Most first year college students*students*</p><p>p.392</p></li><li><p>Agents of Socialization</p><p>Mass MediaSurveys estimate that 40% of American d lt t h 30 h f TV/ k &amp; hild adults watch 30 hrs of TV/week &amp; children </p><p>even moreTV/radio talk shows often skew their TV/radio talk shows often skew their information2004 ~ Survey estimated that 40% ylearned about candidates from late night entertainment shows</p><p>p.394-396</p></li><li><p>Agents of Socialization</p><p>l d l d fReligion ~ 2nd largest predictor of vote after political party ~ 76% consider religion an important part to their livesreligion an important part to their lives</p><p>72 ~ Richard Nixon referred to religious people as the silent majorityp p j y79 ~ Jerry Falwell Moral Majority</p><p>Dissolved in 89</p><p>88 ~ Pat Robertson Christian Coalition700 Club</p><p>p.396-397</p></li><li><p>p.397</p></li><li><p>Most likely to vote conservative*Most likely to vote conservative*</p><p>p.397</p></li><li><p>Agents of Socialization</p><p>Race &amp; EthnicityBlack children generally show positive f li b t A i t l / tifeelings about Am society, less w/ timeSome stark differences in black v. white attitudes regarding US response to attitudes regarding US response to Hurricane Katrina ~ Next SlideHispanics &amp; Native Ams similar opinionsp pNational origin can divide an ethnic group</p><p>Hispanics from Cuba = Conservative/RepubHispanics from Mexico = Liberal/Democratic</p><p>p.397-398</p></li><li><p>p.398</p></li><li><p>p.399</p></li><li><p>Agents of Socialization</p><p>G dGenderPolls indicate men &amp; women differ on a variety of issuesvariety of issues</p><p>Women nurturers ~ Men aggressive</p><p>Political PartiesPolitical PartiesSingle women = DemocratsWhite men = RepublicansWhite men = Republicans</p><p>Men &amp; women close on military affairs following 9/11 but moving apartfollowing 9/11, but moving apart</p><p>p.398-400</p></li><li><p>Agents of Socialization</p><p>G dGenderPolls indicate men &amp; women differ on a variety of issuesvariety of issues</p><p>Women nurturersWomen nurturers ~ Men aggressiveMen aggressive</p><p>Political PartiesPolitical PartiesSingle women = DemocratsWhite men = RepublicansWhite men = Republicans</p><p>Men &amp; women close on military affairs following 9/11 but moving apartfollowing 9/11, but moving apart</p><p>p.398-400</p></li><li><p>p.400</p></li><li><p>Generally speaking, women are more supportive of Generally speaking, women are more supportive of social welfare policies*social welfare policies*</p><p>p.400</p><p>social welfare policiessocial welfare policies</p></li><li><p>Agents of Socialization</p><p>A H d id d ff li i l i iAge ~ Has a decided effect on political opinions</p><p>p.400-401</p></li><li><p>Agents of Socialization</p><p>A H d id d ff li i l i iAge ~ Has a decided effect on political opinions</p><p>p.400-401Age trends*Age trends*</p></li><li><p>Agents of Socialization</p><p>RegionImmigrants naturally settled in areas w/ th f i il li i t &amp; those of similar religious customs &amp; traditions</p><p>Scandinavians in MinnesotaScandinavians in MinnesotaIrish, Italian, Jewish in large urban center of the Northeast</p><p>North v. South ~ Natl v. States RightsWest ~ Avoid city life &amp; seek as much i d d iblindependence as possible</p><p>p.401</p></li><li><p>Kerry ~ Large cities, Northeast &amp; West Coast</p><p>Bush ~ 59% of rural &amp; small towns, the South &amp; Midwest</p><p>Figure from Chap 1 Text Only ~ p.401</p></li><li><p>Kerry ~ Large cities, Kerry ~ Large cities, Northeast &amp; West Northeast &amp; West CoastCoast</p><p>Bush ~ 59% of rural &amp; Bush ~ 59% of rural &amp; small towns, the South small towns, the South &amp; Midwest&amp; Midwest</p><p>Text Only ~ p.401Figure from Chap 1</p></li><li><p>The Impact of Events</p><p>K liti l t l i t t l Key political events play a very important role in a persons socialization ~ Next SlideNixons resignation in 1974Nixon s resignation in 1974</p><p>Impression on young peopleGovernment not always right or honest</p><p>Survey in 2006 (Age 18-20) ~ ContrastFailed to report a single political event that affected them during their early school yearsaffected them during their early school years</p><p>Many major studies conducted in the aftermath of Watergate &amp; the Vietnam War </p><p>l d d ti d ff i th t t f revealed a dramatic drop-off in the trust of the govt ~ Upcoming Slide</p><p>p.402</p></li><li><p>p.402</p></li><li><p>Figure from Chap 1 Text Only ~ p.402</p></li><li><p>Largest impact of political Largest impact of political socialization in recent history socialization in recent history (Watergate &amp; Viet Nam)(Watergate &amp; Viet Nam)(Watergate &amp; Viet Nam)(Watergate &amp; Viet Nam)</p><p>Figure from Chap 1 Text Only ~ p.402</p></li><li><p>p.403</p></li><li><p>p.403What is the most frequently mentioned problem?</p></li><li><p>p.403What is the most frequently mentioned problem? Crime</p></li><li><p>HalfHalf Wa PointWa Point</p><p>Ch t 11</p><p>HalfHalf--Way PointWay Point</p><p>Chapter 11</p><p>Political Socialization Political Socialization and Public Opinionand Public Opinion</p><p>American Government: Continuity and Change9th Edition9th Edition</p></li><li><p>Public Opinion and Polling</p><p>h h bl h k b lWhat the public thinks about a particular issue/set of issues at any point in timeP bli O i i P llPublic Opinion Polls</p><p>Interviews/surveys w/ samples of citizens that are used to estimate the feelings &amp; beliefs of are used to estimate the feelings &amp; beliefs of the entire population</p><p>George Gallup (1901-1983), Ph.Dg p ( ),U of Iowa ~ Founder of modern pollingHe believed ldrs must constantly take public opinionsno matter how short livedinto consideration</p><p>p.403-404</p></li><li><p>Public Opinion and Polling</p><p>h h bl h k b lWhat the public thinks about a particular issue/set of issues at any point in timeP bli O i i P llPublic Opinion Polls</p><p>Interviews/surveys w/ samples of citizens that are used to estimate the feelings &amp; beliefs of are used to estimate the feelings &amp; beliefs of the entire population</p><p>George GallupGeorge Gallup (1901-1983), Ph.Dg pg p ( ),U of Iowa ~ Founder of modern pollingFounder of modern pollingHe believed ldrs must constantly take public opinionsno matter how short livedinto consideration</p><p>p.403-404</p></li><li><p>The History of Public Opinion Research</p><p>1883 ~ Boston Globe sent reporters to selected precincts to poll voters as they exited1916 ~ Literary Digest mailed survey </p><p>i i l ( h b k questions to potential voters (phonebook, club rosters, city directories, mail order lists etc )lists, etc.)</p><p>Correctly predicted the Preselection from 1920 to 1932election from 1920 to 1932</p><p>p.404-407</p></li><li><p>History of Public Opinion Research</p><p>Public opinion polling as we know it did not begin to develop until the 1930s</p><p>Walter Lippmans, Public Opinion (1922) stated that pp , p ( )public opinion was too limited </p><p>Earlier straw polls used unscientific surveys to gauge public opinion on issues &amp; policiesg g p p p</p><p>Literary Digest ~ Incorrectly predicted that Alf Landon would defeat FDR in 1936George Gallup</p><p>Correctly predicted the 1936 presidential contestTechniques became more sophisticated in the 1940s.Dewey incorrectly predicted as winner</p><p>p.404-405</p></li><li><p>History of Public Opinion Research</p><p>Public opinion polling as we know it did not begin to develop until the 1930s</p><p>Walter Lippmans, Public Opinion (1922) stated that pp , p ( )public opinion was too limited </p><p>Earlier straw polls used unscientific surveys to gauge public opinion on issues &amp; policiesg g p p p</p><p>Literary Digest ~ Incorrectly predicted that Alf Literary Digest ~ Incorrectly predicted that Alf Landon would defeat FDR in 1936Landon would defeat FDR in 1936George Gallup</p><p>Correctly predicted the 1936 presidential contestTechniques became more sophisticated in the 1940s.Dewey incorrectly predicted as winner</p><p>p.404-405</p></li><li><p>George Gallup Jr. now chairs the organizationchairs the organization</p></li><li><p>Recent Efforts to Measure Public Opinion</p><p>National Election Study conducted at National Election Study conducted at University of Michigan since 1952InternetInternet</p><p>Harris Interactive achieved a 99% accuracy rate of 73 political contests in November rate of 73 political contests in November 2000Weakness: Many poory p&amp; elderly not on-line</p><p>p.406-407</p></li><li><p>Traditional Public Opinion PollsHow questions are askedHow questions are asked</p><p>Have you stopped beating your wife?Emotional issues~abortion, same sex marriage, etc.</p><p>Selecting the sampleSelecting the sampleRandom Sampling ~ A method of poll selection that gives each person the same chance of being selectedStratified Sampling ~ A variation of random sampling; p g p gcensus data are used to divide the country into four sampling regions. Sets of counties and standard metropolitan statistical areas are then randomly selected in proportion to the total national population</p><p>Contacting respondentsTelephone polls most frequent (95% have)</p><p>Cell phones may affect in futurePollsters exempt from the no-call list</p><p>Constitutionally protected free speech issue p.407-409</p></li><li><p>Traditional Public Opinion PollsHow questions are askedHow questions are asked</p><p>Have you stopped beating your wife?Emotional issues~abortion, same sex marriage, etc.</p><p>Selecting the sampleSelecting the sampleRandom Sampling ~ A method of poll selection that gives each person the same chance of being selectedStratified Sampling ~ A variation of random sampling; p g p gcensus data are used to divide the country into four sampling regions. Sets of counties and standard metropolitan statistical areas are then randomly selected in proportion to the total national population</p><p>Contacting respondentsTelephone polls most frequentTelephone polls most frequent (95% have)</p><p>Cell phones may affect in futurePollsters exempt from the no-call list</p><p>Constitutionally protected free speech issue p.407-409</p></li><li><p>Political PollsPush Polls Polls taken for the purpose of Push Polls ~ Polls taken for the purpose of providing pushing voters away from a particular candidate</p><p>Would you vote for Bob if you knew he was a child molester?</p><p>Tracking Polls ~ Continuous surveys that enable a Tracking Polls Continuous surveys that enable a campaign to chart its daily rise or fall in support</p><p>Next Slide</p><p>E i P ll P ll d d l d lli Exit Polls ~ Polls conducted at selected polling places on Election Day ~ Sample every 10th voter</p><p>Large news organizationsg gEastern to Pacific time zones ~ 80 Carter conceded to Reagan before polls in west closed ~ no longer allowed</p><p>p.409-411</p></li><li><p>Political PollsPush PollsPush Polls Polls taken for the purpose of Push PollsPush Polls ~ Polls taken for the purpose of providing pushing voters away from a particular candidate</p><p>Would you vote for Bob if you knew he was a Would you vote for Bob if you knew he was a child molester?child molester?</p><p>Tracking Polls ~ Continuous surveys that enable a Tracking Polls Continuous surveys that enable a campaign to chart its daily rise or fall in support</p><p>Next Slide</p><p>E i P ll P ll d d l d lli Exit Polls ~ Polls conducted at selected polling places on Election Day ~ Sample every 10th voter</p><p>Large news organizationsg gEastern to Pacific time zones ~ 80 Carter conceded to Reagan before polls in west closed ~ no longer allowed</p><p>p.409-411</p></li><li><p>Small samples contacted pevery 24-hours</p><p>p.410</p></li><li><p>Shortcomings of PollingV t N S d it ll d i th Voter News Svc made exit poll errors during the 20000 presidential election</p><p>Failed to est # of voters accurately &amp; yinaccurate exit poll modelIncorrectly estimated the number of African American &amp; Cuban votersAmerican &amp; Cuban votersResults lead to predict Al Gore winner in FL &amp; therefore overall</p><p>VNS di b d d i 2003VNS disbanded in 2003Major networks &amp; Associated Press joined together to form a new polling consortium, the og o o a po g o o u ,National Election Pool</p><p>p.411-412</p></li><li><p>Shortcomings of PollingV t N S d it ll V t N S d it ll Voter News Svc made exit poll errors Voter News Svc made exit poll errors during the 20000 presidential electionduring the 20000 presidential election</p><p>Failed to est # of voters accurately &amp; yinaccurate exit poll modelIncorrectly estimated the number of African American &amp; Cuban votersAmerican &amp; Cuban votersResults lead to predict Al Gore winner in Results lead to predict Al Gore winner in FL &amp; therefore overallFL &amp; therefore overall</p><p>VNS di b d d i 2003VNS disbanded in 2003Major networks &amp; Associated Press joined together to form a new polling consortium, the og o o a po g o o u ,National Election Pool</p><p>p.411-412</p></li><li><p>Shortcomings of Polling</p><p>S li E M i f ESampling Error ~ Margin of ErrorA measure of accuracyIf margin of error is larger than the difference = Too g gclose to call</p><p>51% to 49% w/ error of 3%</p><p>Limited Respondent OptionsLimited Respondent OptionsDo you like this class? Yes - No</p><p>Lack of InformationDifficult to respond if little is known</p><p>Difficulty Measuring IntensityEmotional level can affect answersEmotional level can affect answers</p><p>Abortion v. Eliminating the Electoral Collegep.411-412</p></li><li><p>Why We Form and Express Political Opinions</p><p>P l B fiPersonal BenefitsPolls indicate we are becoming more I orientedVote with your pocketbooky p</p><p>Political KnowledgeThe more one understands about the political process, the more likely he is to become involvedthe more likely he is to become involvedUSDE report suggests todays college grads have less civic knowledge than HS grads 50 yrs ago2002 N tl G hi t d h d th t 87% f 2002 Natl Geographic study showed that 87% of Americans (18-24) could not find Iraq on a map2004 Annenberg study states that men know more b t i b t t th f th i about issues, but women vote more than men of their </p><p>own income &amp; educational level ~ Go figure p.412-414</p></li><li><p>Why We Form and Express Political Opinions</p><p>P l B fiPersonal BenefitsPolls indicate we are becoming more I orientedVote with your pocketbooky p</p><p>Political KnowledgeThe more one understands about the political process, the more likely he is to become involvedthe more likely he is to become involvedUSDE report suggests todays college grads have less civic knowledge than HS grads 50 yrs ago2002 N tl G hi t d h d th t 87% f 2002 N tl G hi t d h d th t 87% f 2002 Natl Geographic study showed that 87% of 2002 Natl Geographic study showed that 87% of Americans (18Americans (18--24) could not find Iraq on a map24) could not find Iraq on a map2004 Annenberg study states that men know more b t i b t t th f th i about issues, but women vote more than men of their </p><p>own income &amp; educational level ~ Go figure p.412-414</p></li><li><p>p.413</p></li><li><p>Why We Form and Express Political Opinions</p><p>Cues from LeadersHigh visibility &amp; access to the media gives leaders tremendous power to affect (manipulate) opinione e dous po e o a ec ( a pu a e)...</p></li></ul>

Recommended

View more >