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Population and migration in Southern Africa in the1990'sG. S. Labuschagne a & M. E. Muller aa International Politics Section of the Department of Political Sciences , University of SouthAfrica ,Published online: 23 Feb 2007.

To cite this article: G. S. Labuschagne & M. E. Muller (1993) Population and migration in Southern Africa in the 1990's,Politikon: South African Journal of Political Studies, 20:1, 47-54, DOI: 10.1080/02589349308704986

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POPULATION AND MIGRATION IN SOUTHERN AFRICAIN THE 1990's

G. S. LABUSCHAGNE and M. E. MULLER

ABSTRACT

As South and Southern Africa move into the post-apartheid era, various new potentialsources of conflict emerge. Many of these originate in the composition and nature of thepopulation of the region and in the movement of population, that is, in migration. Thelatter takes various forms which impact on the potential for stability and development invarying ways. In Southern Africa the phenomenon of migration exhibits some uniquecharacteristics or at least mutations of the broader problem. However, problems ofpopulation and migration are universal and therefore cannot be dealt with as exclusivelydomestic or even regional issues when solutions are sought.

The impact of population, and in particular of migration, on international, regionaland domestic stability needs no illustration. It has been amply demonstrated as apowerful force for change through the centuries. This last decade of the twentiethcentury is no exception: the significant migration of people is common to all con-tinents, in Africa as elsewhere. The broad phenomenon of migration has a differingimpact on different socieites, however, which makes the topic both interesting andcomplex. A multitude of factors play a causal role. In addition the implications ofpossible solutions to the problems of migration are also fraught with ethical and legalimplications. The purpose of this article is to deal briefly with the problem of migrationin the sub-continent of Southern Africa in the 1990's, with particular emphasis on theposition of the Republic of South Africa. Various aspects of the problem will behighlighted. A summary will be given of the factors involved and their impact sketchedbriefly. Although there are points of resemblance to experiences elsewhere, SouthernAfrica exhibits some unique characteristics or at least mutations of the phenomenon.Some possible responses to the problems of migration are briefly sketched in theconclusion.

TYPES OF MIGRATION IN SOUTHERN AFRICA IN THE 1990's

Five main types of migration have been identified (Appleyard, 1989: Part II), all ofwhich occur in Southern Africa: temporary or labour migration, clandestine orirregular migration, long-term migration or 'transient professionals', permanentmigration (or in particular the 'brain drain'), refugees, and return migration.

G.S. LABUSCHAGNE & M.E. MULLER. International Politics Section of theDepartment of Political Sciences, University of South Africa, Pretoria.

Politikon Vol.20, No.1, June-1993-Juiiie 47

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Temporary/Labour migration

Temporary labour migration has a long history in Southern Africa and much has beenwritten on the topic (see for example Bohning 1984:191-223). It has also long beenthe ambition of many groups to terminate or at least reduce this practice - commonlyregarded as exploitative in nature - whereby the mining industry in particular but alsomany farms in South Africa have relied heavily on migrant labour from outside thecountry. Some migrant labour practices also exist inside the country, involving forexample labourers from Natal working on contract on mines in the Transvaal. Acomplicating factor in the problem of labour migration is that many of South Africa'sneighbouring countries (Lesotho is a notable example) rely on income earned fromthe export of labour to keep their economies going. Any significant reduction inmigration of this kind - for instance, as a result of economic recession in South Africa- could be seriously to the disadvantage of the rest of the region. Such an effect hasalready been felt by Malawi with which migrant labour contracts have been virtuallyterminated, largely because of health concerns - a matter which is touched on at alater point in the discussion.

Clandestine migration

Clandestine or irregular migration has always been a problem. However, recently thescope of this phenomenon has increased dramatically. The latest official statisticsindicate that the number of illegal immigrants to South Africa has more than doubledin the last two years, and officials readily admit that these statistics represent only thetip of the iceberg. Available statistics show that most of these 'illegals' soon find then-way to the urban areas of South Africa, notably in the Transvaal, compounding thealready considerable problems of the rapid urbanisation which is taking place in SouthAfrica (as elsewhere in Africa).

Long-term migration/transient professionals

Long-term migration or 'transient professionals' as a category refers to a particulartype of migrant who resides lawfully in a foreign country for a period of anythingbetween six months and fifteen years (Appleyard, 1989:144). Research in this fieldhas shown that much of the long-term migration to developed countries clearlyinvolves single men and women leaving for further education and work experience,whereas migration to developing countries involves more often married men accom-panied by their wives and children. Long-term migration from South Africa resemblesthe general patterns of the flow to developed countries, for both males and females,and also in terms of the age groups involved (Appleyard, 1989:145). In the past SouthAfrica itself has attracted transient professionals from both developed and develop-ing countries. However, recently an increasing number of these migrants have comefrom elsewhere in Africa, for example from Zaire. There is also the interesting rumourthat some experienced South African farmers have been recruited to Zambia to helpthe agricultural sector get going again in that country. It is not yet clear whether thescope of this is at all significant.

Permanent migration/brain-drain

Much more damaging to the South and Southern African economy is the extent ofpermanent migration or the 'brain-drain'. This affects South Africa in so far aspolitical uncertainty in the country has lately resulted in increasing numbers of

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better-qualified whites leaving the country. In a recent survey almost a quarter of thewhites interviewed stated that they thought that they would indeed leave the country.This could have serious implications for the economy, as well as other effects; forexample, on the medical profession in South Africa - with obvious consequences forhealth standards. This phenomenon is of course not unique to South Africa and itseriously affects the whole African continent Mention should also be made of the'brain-drain' into South Africa from elsewhere in Africa (and also from EasternEurope). However, it is doubtful whether this could really compensate for'SouthAfrica's loss of highly skilled people to the developed world.

Refugees

The African continent is known for the staggering scale of its refugee problem.Southern Africa in particular has one of the largest concentrations of refugees anddisplaced persons in the world. Well over three million people have been forced toflee their homes within their own countries; one and a half million more have fled toneighbouring countries. A very large percentage of South and Southern Africa'srefugee population comes from Mozambique and much has been done to try and dealwith this. However, tHe burden imposed by the influx of refugees is considerable, asis the impact of refugees on an already difficult situation. Due mainly to civil war, butalso to the impact of the worst drought this century, nearly one million destituteMozambicans have fled to Malawi alone, where they presently constitute more thanten percent of the population. Hundreds of thousands more have fled to Zimbabwe,Tanzania, Zambia, Swaziland and South Africa - all of which have- also felt thedevastating effect of the drought. South Africa has the second largest concentrationof Mozambican refugees in the region, which is estimated at approximately twohundred and fifty thousand. The United Nations High Commissioner for Refugeeshas recently become involved in dealing with this problem, and the South Africangovernment has provided for certain areas in which these refugees may freely settlepending voluntary repatriation. However, the situation remains heart-rending. Thehealth risks involved are truly disquieting: diseases endemic to Mozambique, such ascholera and malaria, are re-introduced into the north-eastern parts of South Africa,where they had been eradicated. In their turn, these refugees are exposed to infectionssuch as ADDS, which is more common amongst local populations than in Mozambique.On eventually returning to their home country, they will of course be responsible forincreased infection amongst other sections of the populations in the region.

Return migration

The health risks involved in many instances of return migration, such as thoserepresented by former refugees and temporary labourers, are thus amply illustrated.(It is worth noting that contracts for migrant labourers from Malawi were largelyterminated due to the danger of AIDS, which is notoriously rife in that country).However, the problems associated with the return of refugees in Southern Africalargely remains a matter for the future. An aspect of return migration which currentlyaffects South Africa is that constituted by large numbers of former political exilesreturning to the country since the changes initiated by the State President, Mr deKlerk, in his speech of 2 February 1990. Though this has provided the country with aninflux of some educated and experienced individuals able to contribute to building 'anew South Africa', it has also compounded the problem of unemployment at a timewhen the economy is at a very low point and large numbers of political prisoners are

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also being released. Some problems associated with this will again be referred tobelow.

PUSH AND PULL FACTORS IN MIGRATION IN SOUTHERN AFRICA

The literature on migration gives considerable attention to factors which motivatepeople to move. These are often classified as 'push' and 'pull' factors. Reviewing thesefactors as they apply to the situation in Southern Africa it becomes clear that peoplestay where they are because of two factors (either one or the other, or a combinationof these): contentment with the circumstances pertaining to their lives, and restric-tions on their movements. The former may be a result of 'real' (objective)stability/prosperity and/or value systems which cause people to believe that theircurrent circumstances are more or less satisfactory. This would imply that the spreadof information could change value systems and thereby change peoples' views of whatconstitutes satisfactory circumstances. The relative stability/prosperity experiencedby a community may also change (for example, due to drought, economic difficulties,civil strife) to such an extent that their circumstances are no longer regarded asacceptable even in terms of a fixed value system. Often, of course, both processes ofchange occur simultaneously, either reinforcing or checking one another. In practicethe reinforcing effect is far more common.

Important push factors operating in Southern Africa (as elsewhere) may be sum-marized as the often simultaneous changes in circumstances of prosperity or stability,and in traditional value systems, the latter reinforcing negative changes in objectiveliving standards which have a variety of causes. The fact is that it is unlikely that eitherof these processes will be reversed or slow down in the immediate future. Add to thisa wave of rising expectations, which the so-called 'soft' (ineffective) states of Africaare usually unable to satisfy, and a very strong push effect is created. Southern Africahas also recently experienced a slackening of the restrictions on the movement ofpeople: the internal political changes in South Africa have included the .scrapping of'influx control measures' within South Africa itself and have also had an impact onimmigration policy. The current situation is that immigrants are no longer admittedor restricted on the basis of any qualification relating to race. Simultaneously transportis continually becoming quicker and easier, in particular with the boom in taxitransport over long distances in South Africa. Finally, mention should be made of amore or less unique factor which operates in Africa and in particular in SouthernAfrica, to augment all other factors encouraging migration: there is a strong feelingof kinship amongst the (black) populations of the various separate states, which notonly encourages movement, but could have a meaningful impact on future restrictionson movement. A future government in South Africa will probably, at least initially,further relax restrictions on the movement of people from elsewhere in Africa toSouth Africa. The prospects for the 1990's, as far as the push factor is concerned, arethus for increased migration in Southern Africa in most of the main categories.

The pull factors involved in migration in Southern Africa are largely the reverse ofthe push, factors: the perception of a 'better life' waiting elsewhere. Again valuesystems and information play an important role in the formation of perceptions of abetter life. South Africa's world wide reputation for relative affluence and her regionaleconomic primacy play important and possibly dangerous roles in attracting varioustypes of migrants, but in particular the clandestine type.

In cases where push factors are dominant, circumstances in the home country orarea are simply perceived to be so unsatisfactory that people migrate almost regardlessof the pull factors. The large flow of refugees from Mozambique may be regarded as

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a case in point A striking and often tragic aspect of this phenomenon is that peoplefrequently disregard natural restrictions on their movement, as in the case of refugeeswalking vast distances through inhospitable and dangerous tracts of country such asthe Kruger National Park game reserve. Once they have been 'pushed' to reach safetyin South Africa in those (rural) areas in which they are currently allowed to settle, therefugees are often 'pulled' towards the main urban areas where they hope to find abetter life. Most often, therefore, push and pull factors operate together, eithersimultaneously or consecutively.

THE CONFLICT POTENTIAL OF MIGRATION IN SOUTHERN AFRICA

The impact of migration on societal conflict may be either direct or indirect, in thelatter case especially through its economic consequences. It is mainly through thedetrimental effects of various types of migration on the economic life of South Africaand other Southern African countries, that population movement is conducive toconflict in these countries.

It is well known that a lot of the conflict currently taking place within South Africaoccurs along lines created by the migrant labour system. These divisions, augmentedby ethnic and political differences, manifest themselves in the dividing line betweenthe so-called hostel dwellers (single male labourers staying in special single quartersoften provided by the mines which employ them) and the other inhabitants of theblack townships in and around the main urban areas. Though it is difficult to determinewhether this is in fact so, there are some indication that the influx of 'new' (oftenillegal) inhabitants into the spontaneous informal settlements also contributes to thelevel of conflict and violence. These people obviously compete for scarce resourcesand job opportunities. This is also true as far as returning exiles and other legalimmigrants are concerned.

Another point worth mentioning is that of late some resentment has becomeevident amongst sections of the population towards non-African immigrants enteringSouth Africa. Swaziland has experienced actual violence aimed at Chinese traders inthat country, and this could happen here as elsewhere. There is much to suggest thata new South African government will tend to favour fellow Africans in its immigrationpolicies, in preference to non-African immigrants.

In so far as South Africa is losing some of its highly skilled people through the"brain-drain', this may simplify the population composition of the country to someextent, but will also have a detrimental effect on the search for solutions to thecountry's most pressing developmental problems. The same negative effect will befelt by other (Southern) African countries losing their "best people'. (Often the•brain-drain' is accompanied by a financial drain). If a country is not able to retain itsmost talented and/or highly skilled people, it simply loses much of its ability to solveits problems and sinks ever deeper into the morass of difficulties. The conflictpotential inherent in such a process is obvious.

It would seem that most of the main types of migration occurring in Southern Africahave a fairly clear potential for causing conflict. As has already been indicated above,some of the 'resolutions' to the problem of migration - such as the reversal of labourmigration movements - can unfortunately also contribute to instability and thus toconflict This points to the urgent need to search for viable solutions.

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THE SEARCH FOR SOLUTIONS

At least three factors militate against the choice of draconian measures to stop theflow of migrants in Southern Africa. Firstly, history has amply demonstrated that inaddition to the conflictual impact of migration, the phenomenon of populationmovement has contributed considerably to positive change and human development.Secondly, the generally advocated notion of human rights, as well as the experienceof the Berlin Wall and all that it implied, militate against any imposition of severerestrictions on the movement of individuals. Thirdly, and this is of particular impor-tance, South Africa has only recently abandoned what may be regarded as a large-scaleexperiment in effectively controlling the movement of people. In attempting to 'keeppeople where they were' by creating infrastructure in the areas concerned, it hadattempted to implement the policy of (separate) development. This region would notwish to experiment any further with such solutions to the problems of migration, notleast because these discredited policies did not succeed in stopping the flow of peoplenor in inducing overall development.

If restrictive measures are not the answer to population movement, two obviousoptions remain: diminishing the impact of push factors by creating more favourablecircumstances where potential migrants currently reside, and improving informationabout potential destinations for migrants in order to remove false expectations orreduce the effect of exaggerated pull factors. Much can and should be done in boththese spheres - however, the forces promoting migration are very powerful. In thefinal instance, therefore, the problems flowing from migration cannot be avoided inSouthern Africa in the 1990's.

Attention will thus have to be given to managing the problems as they arise, aseffectively and humanely as possible. In this process it is essential that the rest of theworld should not dissociate itself from or forget about Southern Africa once the issueof apartheid has disappeared. A continuous and two-way exchange of informationand expertise in dealing with the issues' should be facilitated between our region andthe rest of the world. Inherent in migration are both dangers and opportunities; thelatter should not be missed in dealing with the former. Only through a common effortat managing dangers and optimizing opportunities can a prosperous future be shaped.

CONCLUSION

This paper has focused on migration in Southern Africa in the 1990's. It has notattempted to deal with broader issues of population. In conclusion it must be notedthat in Southern Africa there are rnany pressing issues relating to population apartfrom migration, which are extremely relevant to questions of stability and develop-ment In this regard reference may be made to population growth, general healthmatters including the threat of AIDS, and the problems of drugs, illiteracy, educationand training, and urbanisation, among others.

As Coker (1991: 284) has observed: The social and economic problems whichthreaten to overwhelm the region in the late 1990's will be awesome enough. Thepopulation is doubling every 20 years. One in six babies born in Soweto is a victim ofAIDS. Seventy-five per cent of South Africa's population is likely to become ur-banized, creating a vast underclass significantly larger than that which already exists,of 4,4 million disfranchised, dispossessed children/adolescents at loose in the streets,grown old before their time. The very real prospect of a devastating famine in thesouth-east canot be ignored either as fresh water beings to run out. None of these

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problems, alas, is likely to alter the "meaning" of the region in terms of popularperceptions in the West.'

Arguing that Southern Africa will cease to be relevant to the West, strategically,morally and economically, once apartheid is over and the region is no longer an issueof conscience and consequence in world politics, Coker advocates that SouthernAfrica should forge a regional life and meaning of its own choosing. The strategicconclusion cannot be faulted. However, a plea must also be made for the continuedinvolvement in the region of the international community, which as a whole shouldbe sensitized to the universality of the problems of population and migration, and ofdevelopment None of these can effectively be dealt with as only domestic or regionalissues.

NOTE

This is the text of a paper originally prepared for Working Group 7 at the 42nd Pugwash Conferenceon Science and World Affairs: Shaping our common future: dangers and opportunities, 11-17 September1992, Berlin, Germany. At the Conference the paper was delivered by Marie Muller.

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