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Possible transport policies for urbanareas during the 1990'sVeli Himanen aa Technical Research Centre of Finland , Espoo, FinlandPublished online: 21 Mar 2007.

To cite this article: Veli Himanen (1993) Possible transport policies for urban areasduring the 1990's, Transportation Planning and Technology, 17:4, 331-339, DOI:10.1080/03081069308717524

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Transportation Planning and Technology, 1993, Vol. 17, pp. 331-339 © 1993 Gordon and Breach Science Publishers S.A.Reprints available directly from the Publisher Printed in the United States of AmericaPhotocopying permitted by license only

POSSIBLE TRANSPORT POLICIES FOR URBANAREAS DURING THE 1990's

VELI HIMANEN

Technical Research Centre of FinlandEspoo - Finland

(Received October 20, 1992)

KEY WORDS: Transport policy, future trends, urban areas.

INTRODUCTION

Citizens in developed countries have achieved an unforeseen mobility. However, newproblems seem to arise immediately that old ones have been solved. A modern transportproblem - accidents and pollution - is the result of solving the historical problem:how to get from one place to anther. Our solution involves a tremendous use of materialand energy. After the modern transport problem we have also a post-modern transportproblem. Traffic volumes in major cities and on the main roads of the European coreare have reached the available road capacity, resulting in severe congestion. It is obviousthat it is no longer possible to expand road infrastructure or urban parking space tomeet forecast demand (cf. Goodwin et al., 1991). Congestion has reached such proportionsthat some are waiting for the final gridlock (Banister 1989). This kind of congestionis, however, restricted to large built-up areas.

Transport is a necessary part of our economic and social system. In developed countries,transport is also a part of mass consumption and at the same time transport is necessaryto facilitate mass consumption. Our economy uses energy and raw materials from ournatural environment and - after its use in the production or consumption process -returns these as waste and heat back to nature.

It is evident that the future of the mass consumption system depends - as well asthe development of the system itself — on the limits set by nature. The limits relatedto global resources are influenced also by the needs of fast-growing populations indeveloping countries. In Europe, the environmental hazards caused by the massconsumption system are accumulating in such a manner that many changes in theproduction and consumption system are needed (Stigliani et al., 1989). Being a partand a facilitator of the mass consumption system, transport is undoubtedly likely tochange as well.

In this situation transport policy is caught between demands for more mobility andconcern about negative side-effects of traffic. Transport policy has never resolved theconflict it has provoked. This kind of problem can be found in many areas. Capra(1983) noticed as a striking sign of our time that people who are supposed to be expertsin various fields can no longer deal with the urgent problems that have arisen in theirareas of expertise.

The research into complex systems has produced results, which at least partly havebrought to light why transport policy has been unable to solve transport problems.According to Forrester's first law (King and Schneider, 1991) we may take for granted

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that: "In any complex system, attack - however apparently intelligent - on a singleelement or symptom generally leads to a deterioration of the system as a whole."

When regarding urban transport policy, we can see that at least the following itemsought to be dealt with in a consistent and co-ordinated way: public transport, roadnetworks, and parking in city centres. These transport items are closely related to landuse planning, which must also be included in a comprehensive policy strategy. Consistencyought to be maintained over many decennia, regardless of changing governments andvarying ideologies.

1. INCREASING VOLUMES AND STABILIZING PATTERNS

There has been an unprecedented rise in both passenger and freight transport in westernEuropean countries (see e.g. ECMT, 1990). The traffic increase in Europe has mainlybeen caused by the rise in the number of cars, vans and lorries as well as by the risingnumber of air journeys. The higher speeds obtained by new vehicles and new networkshave been used for more travelling. Various recent forecasts still foresee a considerableincrease in European traffic (see OECD, 1985).

Even with increasing average mobility, there are some rather stable patterns emerging.Average daily travel time seems to fluctuate around 70 minutes per person. The purchaseof a car will double daily kilometres, though after that no apparent increase is expected.

The average daily travel time seems to be very stable over time (cf. Brog, 1991and Himanen et al., 1992). The stability of daily travel time over different people groupsis a somewhat open question. Vilhelmson (1990) noticed that the average daily traveltime is independent of household characteristics, except for old people. Prendergast andWilliams (1980) have, however, found that travel time is related to various socio-economiccharacteristics.

The average daily travel distance has increased with higher average journey speedsobtained by cars (Himanen et al., 1992). However, the average daily journey distancefor car users has been 51 km and for non-car users 27 km (age groups 13-64) in Finlandfrom 1974 to 1986. These figures are very close to Swedish figures, viz. 53 and 25km for 1984/1985 (Vilhelmson 1990). The journey distances given above were averagesfor the whole country. The journey kilometres inside an urban area are lower.

In the urban context, increasing volumes of cars have been the most obviousphenomenon in European cities during the last forty years. Theoretically, the upper limitof car ownership per capita might be reached when almost all adult persons own acar. However, Californian figures showed that this 'natural' limit can easily be exceeded.Whether such as situation would ever become reality in Western European countriesis still an open question. The total number of cars depends naturally on the numberof people, although this is apparently not leading to a fixed saturation level. In anycase, in countries which still have an increasing population, the increase in car trafficwill undoubtedly still continue after the saturation of car ownership has been reached.

If we assume a saturation level of one car per adult person, then in many Europeancountries a saturation of car ownership has already been roughly obtained for males.For example, in the Oslo area during the years 1977-1990 the share of car ownersfluctuated around 80 per cent for males between 25-54 years of age (Vibe, 1991). Thisfigure was reached in 1990 also by older males (55-74 years of age). If we excludethe oldest generations, only a minor increase may be foreseen, resulting in a situationwhere almost 85 per cent of adult males own a car. For females, however, car ownershiphas been increasing very fast for all age groups. However, in 1990 the share of femalecar owners was still just over 60 per cent for females between 25 and 54 years. The

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same phenomenon can be observed in Swedish forecasts (Jansson 1989), where malecar ownership is expected to grow by only 3 per cent at the same time that femalecar ownership is likely to grow by 70 per cent.

Knowing demographic features and assuming that female car ownership will probablyremain somewhat below male ownership, we can calculate the maximum traffic levelin principle. It has to be added that the number of average kilometres can be madewith different cars (e.g. one for long distances and one for intra-urban traffic), so thatthe saturation level for car ownership is still difficult to identify.

2. CONTINUING OR BREAKING TRENDS?

2.1 Long Waves and Logistic Revolutions

Many human phenomena can be seen to include both a long-term trend of increasingvolume and quality as well as a pulsating short-term change rate. This has resultedin a theory of long waves by which both economic and technological change has beeninterpreted (see Vasko, 1985 and Ayres, 1990).

According to Bruckmann (1987), the economic history of man can be divided intothree ages: the pre-industrial, the industrial, and the post-industrial ages. We are nowliving in the breaking point between the last two. What is most interesting is thatBruckmann supposes that the whole framework of our social evolution is changing.During the history of mankind there has always been scarcity, but no limits on growth.Now we have become affluent but the limits of further growth are obvious. Also Kingand Schneider (1991) are waiting for a new era because the name of their new bookis The First Global Revolution. Transitional problems from the industrial age to thepost-industrial age are not made easier by the fact that with the end of the cold war,a large portion of the defence industry is obsolete.

Marchetti (1987) has tried to interpret past and possible future changes in the Europeantransport sector with the same method. His main conclusions include a continuationof the trends. Rail transport will go down, with road transport taking all freight trafficfrom the railways. The volume of intercity passenger transport by car will be stableand passenger air traffic will grow fast. Maglevs with speeds of over 500 km/h arecoming.

Andersson and Stromquist (1988) state that the history of European transport includesfour logistic revolutions. The first one was based on European coastal sea transportand started in the 12th century. The second revolution, including ocean sea transportand modem banks, was in the 16th century. The third logistic revolution in the 19thcentury was based on the technological development of machines, giving us first railwaysand steamships then cars, trucks, and buses, and soon also airplanes. Alsotelecommunications started their progress first with telegraph, followed closely bytelephone and radio. Andersson and Stromquist consider that the most developed WesternEuropean countries are now approaching the fourth logistic revolution where high techcompanies use modern telecommunications, the road network with its flexible vehiclefleet as well as the rapidly increasing their use of air transport. When comparing thefourth logistic revolution with the other three, one may ask if it can really be regardedas a revolution. It seems more like normal evolution. Perhaps the fourth logistic revolutionstill awaits us.

High-speed trains are not well suited to the long-term scenarios discussed above.Marchetti considers them too slow compared to Maglevs. Andersson and Stromquiststress the importance of motorways and air connections. They spare only a few general

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lines about the few fast rail connections in some parts of Sweden. Actually high-speedtrains can be seen as a somewhat delayed development. Even at the beginning of thiscentury a Siemens locomotive reached 200 km/h.

2.2 Everything Which Goes Up Must Come Down

During the industrial age there was also agriculture and during the post-industrial agewe still shall have both agriculture and industry. It is only the relative importance ofvarious sectors which is changing. This importance can be measured by the wealthincluded in the various sectors or the numbers of people employed.

Considering transport, we can see that from the pre-industrial period that we stillhave walking as a transport mode, even though its share of daily kilometres is rathersmall, its share of the number of trips is still high. Walking is also a necessary partof all other trips, depending on the very nature of man's way of life. However, otherolder transport modes — sailing, skiing, and horse riding — have been totally swept tothe amusement sector. During the industrial age we had one mode using human energy- the bicycle - and plenty of modes equipped with motors using special fuel or electricity.The obvious transport trend in recent decades has been the increase in road and airtransport. Now with a profound change in social evolution, what about transport? Willthe previous trends continue or break down. There are factors which could break downthe trends. New modes enter the stage and push the old ones aside, or the limits onthe growth force change.

The difference between the two ways of breaking the trends lies in the fact thatthe former will still increase mobility or at least the service level, while the latter meansthat mobility has to be reduced. The possibilities of new modes may be realized eitherwith further improvement to already known technology or by inventing something totallynew. The limits on growth are quite obvious: shortage of fossil fuels, pollution problems,and lack of space. When considering the future possibilities, we should remember thatGoodwin et al. (1991) see little chance of political support if policies are not capableof making life better.

3. TRANSPORT ACTORS

A transport system may be described as a system involving three actors (producers,users and non-users) in three hierarchical spaces (Figure 1).

Producers mould the natural environment to build equipment and networks as wellas to provide their own and users' operations with energy. The users need the continuoussupport of the producers. The processes also produce waste, which is released into thebuilt and natural environment. In this case the actors can be seen as representing rolespeople are playing. The same person can, during one day, operate in all three roles.When driving to the office he is in a user's role, in the office when planning transportoperation he is in the producer's role, while back at home he is in a non-user's rolewhen suffering from traffic noise.

When considering the future of urban transport, we can relate the actors to the possiblefuture options presented in section 2.2. Every actor has his special interest and preferences.The producers are either private companies (e.g. car manufacturers and oil companies)or governmental offices who take care of street networks. Governmental offices areoperated by civil servants who must more or less listen to the politicians, who againmust listen to their voters who belong to all three actor groups. It is obvious that private

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NATURAL ENVIRONMENTPOLLUTION

NON-USERS

PRODUCERS USERS

TRANSPORT SYSTEM

BUILT-UP ENVIRONMENT

RAW MATERIALS ENERGY

NATURAL ENVIRONMENT

Figure 1 A conceptual model of a transport system.

companies want to make money. They have already invested money in the transportsystem, and so are more inclined to prefer the continuation of the previous trends. Ofcourse, if somebody could find a new transport system with superior characteristics,companies willing to start new production would appear. However, the inertia originationfrom vested interested has its impact on the viewpoints of companies. Governmentaloffices could in principle be neutral concerning the future options. However, we mustremember Capra's (1983) words: "Whatever the original purpose of the institution, itsgrowth beyond a certain size invariably distorts that purpose by making the self-preservation and further expansion of the institution its overriding aim". When consideringthis distortion, we may also expect a lot of inertia in governmental offices, which willfavour the continuation of trends.

The users want to increase their speed and at the same time reduce money and effort.As a result of the already-established patterns, they are against changes especially ifspeed is reduced or more money or effort is needed. Two aspects are important inthis context: the difference between individual and collective activity and the symbolicvalue of the car. Any car owner gains when travelling in his own car, but the problemsstart when all others do the same. The car is often called a private car, which verywell symbolizes the value attached to it. It belongs to a private person and is in manyways a part of that person's life (see e.g. Tengstrom, 1991).

The non-users are, of course, most willing to see changes because in this systemthey have the sufferer's role. They would enjoy a decrease in car traffic.

When one person has both user's and non-user's roles, the result is an inner conflict.In developed countries half of the population is in this situation. Transport professionalshave also the producer's role and in that way experience even severer conflict. Thisphenomenon is quite usual in many situations and has been named cognitive dissonance(Tengstrom 1991). To be in this situation is uncomfortable and people try to eliminate

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or reduce the dissonance. To eliminate the conflict would need deep changes whichwill be avoided because of vested interests, inertia and gains as described before. Thereduction of dissonance may be achieved by underrating the information of thenegative effects of transport as well as by putting one's faith in technical development.A good example of the latter case is the EC's research programme DRIVE, whichis studying possibilities for integrating information technology and transport in Europe.The name DRIVE does not originate from information technology but is anabbreviation of the words Dedicated Road Infrastructure for Vehicle Safety in Europe.Only after the information on the negative effects of transport has become so strongthat it can no longer be underrated or neglected will the dissonance be reduced bychanged habits.

Transport professionals have tried to reduce their own dissonance by relying onvarious policies during their time. Goodwin (1990) distinguishes six differentapproaches:

a) classical road-building, which means more roads for more traffic;b) neo-classical traffic engineering, which achieves optimal use of existing capacity

of the road system;c) public transport, which relies on increased use of public transport;d) traffic calming, where car traffic is reduced on a local scale;e) laisser-faire; if nothing is dome then transport corrects itself;f) road pricing; with the right prices the system organizes itself efficiently.

None of these has provided any permanent answer. However, Goodwin et al. (1991)see the possibility of a new realism in transport policy which would include most ofthe above-mentioned means, and has as its main objectives the matching of demandwith supply and encouraging the use of environmentally beneficial and economicallyefficient mobility. One may ask if this is really a new start or only one more wayto reduce the dissonance amongst professionals.

4. TRANSPORT POLICY

4.1 Basic Elements

King and Schneider (1991), who see the necessity for a global revolution, give as adirective the following instructions:

"Our aim must be essentially normative: to visualize the sort of world we wouldlike to live in, to evaluate the resources - material, human and moral - to makeour vision realistic and sustainable and then to mobilize the human energy and politicalwill to forge the new global society."

When regarding basic elements in transport policy-making, we may concentrate onmeans, conflicts, uncertainty, power, and information.

We know that there are plenty of means to influence transport. However, there arereal conflicts between various actors. If we increase traffic speed, we will get moretraffic as well as more accidents and pollution. If we exclude some groups from carownership, then we get inequity, etc.

Uncertainty regarding the right objectives as well as uncertainly about the resultsof various actions is great and the obvious instability seen in the historical change fromthe industrial age to the post-industrial age does not diminish it.

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In a democratic society, government does as the voters say and in a market economyproducers sell what the consumers buy. This does not exclude the possibility of politiciansalso trying to influence voters and producers using all kinds of marketing efforts toinfluence consumers' choices. The whole power and responsibility of their future (aswell as of their grandchildren's future) lies in the way ordinary people get and interpretinformation regarding the effects of transport. In this context we must remember theprevailing cognitive dissonance which makes it easy to underrate the negative part ofinformation.

Energy conservation has been of topical interest since 1973. Actually there aretwo ways to achieve it. We may invest in new developments and in that way rationalizeour way of using energy without affecting our life styles, or we may directlyreduce our consumption by lowering temperatures inside houses or driving less withour car. This is also the critical question when considering future transport policy; willit improve our mobility or will it force us to reduce our mobility? In the context ofsocial evolution, we may ask if we have gone too far in using global resources sothat soon we shall be obliged to go back, or can we with new technology andmanagement still improve our living standards and at the same time achieve ecologicalsustainability?

4.2 Possible Policies for Urban Areas

Urban transport policy very much revolves around the future of the private car. Itseffect on other transport modes and on urban structure as well as on the general wayof living is overwhelming. With increasing or decreasing car ownership and car trafficwe come to totally different futures.

To highlight possible policies four theoretical scenarios and their consequences upto the year 2030 are described next:

1) Trend extrapolation;2) More mobility;3) Less car traffic and less mobility;4) Less car traffic and increasing mobility.

The first policy is the lazy man's way, no action being needed. The second can beconsidered the hero's style: even with the huge dangers we will continue to expandour actions. The third policy is a sinner's way: we have consumed too much now wehave to pay for it. The fourth one is the way of social evolution: even if man is nowiser than 5000 years ago (cf. King and Schneider, 1991) our collective efforts willimprove our lot in the future too.

1) Trend Extrapolation

Continuing with today's trends is the easiest way. No special decisions are needed,nor revolutionary technological developments. In this case we must also believe thatnature will not put limits on the use of natural resources and resulting wastes. In thiscase, average daily journey kilometres per day per person will increase as the numberof female and older male drivers increases. Mobility for the earless population willsomewhat decrease as well as their share of the total population. The number of roadaccident will increase. However, with continuous safety measures the number of fatalaccidents will stay near today's level. Catalytic converters will diminish emissions exceptcarbon dioxide. Transport will need more energy than today.

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2) More Mobility

More mobility means more motorways to speed up traffic as well as more parkingplaces and sophisticated informatics to guide traffic. For longer journeys this meansmore air travel. This policy does not differ much from policy 1), although in this casecar traffic is favoured somewhat more. Mobility will otherwise be as in policy 1) butwith new investment speeds will be higher and hence also daily kilometres will besomewhat greater. This will also increase accidents somewhat as well as pollution andenergy use.

3) Less Car Traffic and Less Mobility

This scenario will be realized if the limits on natural resources force us to it or ifthe negative effects of car traffic in urban areas are felt to be more serious thantoday.

Cognitive dissonance is then solved by governments restricting car traffic. There areplenty of technical possibilities for this, e.g. road pricing, very high fuel prices, trafficcalming etc. In this case average daily journey kilometres will decrease. Those whohave to stop car driving will travel less than before. Other groups will be favoureda little. Remaining car drivers will enjoy higher speeds and more parking places andwill travel a little more than before. Previous non-car owners will otherwise stay asthey are, although with increasing public transport service they will travel somewhatmore than before. Improvements in public transport will originate from increased numbersof passengers, in this case of former car drivers. The decrease in car traffic will alsodecrease accidents as well as pollution and energy use.

4) Less Car Traffic and Increasing Mobility

This scenario needs huge development efforts requiring far-reaching governmentaldecisions. This kind of action may be introduced by awareness of the increasing negativeeffects of car traffic and a need to find work for the unemployed defence industry(see the problem of the defence industry in King and Schneider, 1991). In this case,car traffic in urban areas will be almost totally abolished. The new transport systemwill need only minor areas as compared to today's situation. Urban areas will, therefore,be much more concentrated. Wide roads and parking areas will no longer be needed.Therefore possible origins and destinations will be much closer to each other. If theaverage daily journey time stays unaffected, then people will be able to reach manymore destinations than earlier and hence enjoy higher mobility. Also the average journeyspeed will be higher than before and thus also daily journey kilometres will increase,especially for former public transport users.

Technological development influences all policies. Currently-known devices candecrease pollution and energy use. To achieve this, government actions are often neededbecause new devices may not be advantageous or even available to individuals. Alsoquite new options may appear. The difference in technological development betweenpolicies two and four, both of which can be considered to represent high techalternatives, is that in the former informatics is integrated with the old car-based transportsystem, while in the latter a new transport system (almost without car traffic) will bedeveloped.

The above description of policy options has been made from a long-term viewpoint.The transport policy of the 1990's however, must be oriented to the future we wantto have. The next period of 40 years starts today. If it has taken 40 years to buildour present transportation system, it may take as long to obtain something new. However,

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the direction to move in ought to be clear as soon as possible, otherwise the neededchanges will be further postponed.

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