PostPC와IT-SoC분야의 산업기술동향과전망 · 3G-GPRS/EDGE/WCDMA/HSDPA ... Configure Choose & Configure. ... ALU-level: Chameleon by Chameleon Systems. IT 산업전망컨퍼런스2005

IT 산업전망컨퍼런스 2005

PostPC와 IT-SoC 분야의산업기술 동향과 전망

서울대학교 전기컴퓨터공학부

실시간운영체제 연구실

홍 성 수 교수

[email protected]


Background (1)

• “Digital convergence” was an empty slogan for almost 2 decades.

• Now, technologies are merging-driven by faster chips, broader bandwidth, and common Internet standard.– Example: PDAs in the late ’90s is

vanishing as customers get the same functions in a cell phone, with camera.


Background (2)

• New opportunities and challenges to PostPC and SoC industry

• “This is going to be the most disruptive period in the past 50 years”Hossein Eslambolchi, President AT&T Laboratories, 2004


Background (3)

• Technology and market drivers for PostPC and SoC Industry

3C Convergence

33C Deep Submicron Technology

C ConvergenceConvergence

Extremely Diversified

Service Needs

Extremely Extremely DiversifiedDiversified

Service NeedsService NeedsPostPCPostPCPostPC IT-SoCITIT--SoCSoC

Deep Deep Submicron Submicron TechnologyTechnology

Extended Mobility

Extended Extended MobilityMobility


PostPC


PostPC Market Drivers

1. Mobility and mobile communications

2. Diversity and complexity in PostPC

– Reduce• Time-to-market

• NRE (Non-recurring Engineering) cost


Mobile Market beyond Voice is Growing Rapidly

Adoption of digital convergence devices accelerates

Mobile subscriber penetration grows at a healthy pace

Encouraging early uptake of 2.5-3G services

• 1.5 billion mobile subscribers – 25% adoption reached!

• Attractive growth market for profitable low ARPU solutions

• WAP page impressions in UK doubled last 12 months – now 1.4 billion per month.

• > 15 million Java downloads per month and growing

• ~ 60 operators launched video services

• Video on demand and TV streaming successful in Korea.

• Smart phone market CAGR >100%

• 200 million camera handsets expected to be shipped 2004

• Portable music devices embraced - 77% Nokia 8310 users listen to FM radio; 100 million iTunes downloads

• Intense mobile enterprise activity: WiFi, e-mail, VPN, RFID


Approaching the Two Billion Milestone (Nokia Case)

Mobile

phone s

ubscription g

row

th

mill

ions

2,000

1,800

1,600

1,400

1,200

1,000

800

600

400

200

01992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2006

／／

Current globalpenetration 20%

Current globalpenetration 20%

2 billionin 2006!

2 billionin 2006!


Interplay of Different Connectivity Technologies, Enriched by IP

Convergence

Wide Area ZoneWide Area Zone> 100m range> 100m range

3G (WCDMA, GSWEDGE, CDMA)3G (WCDMA, GSWEDGE, CDMA)

Local Area ZoneLocal Area Zone10m10m--100m range100m range

Bluetooth, WLAN (WIFI), 3GBluetooth, WLAN (WIFI), 3G

Personal ZonePersonal Zone1m1m--10m range10m range

BluetoothBluetooth

Touch ZoneTouch Zone< 0.1m range< 0.1m rangeRFID, NFCRFID, NFC

Broadcasting ZoneBroadcasting Zone> 10km range> 10km range

DMBDMB

IP ServiceIP Serviceandand

IP MobilityIP Mobility


Opportunity and Portfolio across the Domains

MobileMobiledomaindomain

EnterpriseEnterprisedomaindomain

HomeHomedomaindomain

InternetInternet(Media)(Media)domaindomain ConsumerConsumer

3G-GPRS/EDGE/WCDMA/HSDPA continuum

Multiradio and multiaccess

Software platforms and architecture

IP convergence

Imaging

Music, mobile TV

Content sharing

Security/DRM

Secure mobile connectivity

E-mail and mobile office applications

Device and service management

Interoperability and convergence of fixed/enterprise/ mobile network

Interoperability of content and services

Manageability


3G Technologies for Rich Multimedia

Rich mobileBrowsing with

XHTML

Full Internetbrowsing with HTML

VideoMMS chips(MMS 1.2)

Video streaming(3GPP/Real)

P2P Video(CS,PS)

Mobile TV(DVB-H)

Audio personalization(polyphonic ringtones)

Rich music(AAC/MP3)

Visual ratiobroadcast

OMA DRM 1.0

OMA DRM 2.0

BrowsingBrowsing

VideoVideo

MusicMusic

DRMDRM


Success Strategy

• Driving extended mobility

• Mastering horizontal spectrum of the industry


Driving Extended Mobility

Open

peer-to-peer

architecture

Best possible

technology

available for each

application

Best radio

technology

capabilities and

portfolio


Mastering Horizontal Spectrum of the Industry

Capability to

dynamically

renew bases of

competitive

advantage

Capability to

leverage best

available

technologies

by having

modular

architectures


PostPC Market Drivers

1. Mobility and mobile communications

2. Diversity and complexity in PostPC

– Reduce• Time-to-market

• NRE (Non-recurring Engineering) cost


Diversity in PostPC Industry

Hardware DevicesHardware Devices

General Purpose Platform Devices(PDA, Smart Phone, Tablet PC, Home Server)

General Purpose Platform Devices(PDA, Smart Phone, Tablet PC, Home Server)

Network Infrastructure Devices(Gateway, Router, Switch, Access Point)

Network Infrastructure Devices(Gateway, Router, Switch, Access Point)

Digital Consumer Electronic Devices(DTV, Digital Camera, PMP)

Digital Consumer Electronic Devices(DTV, Digital Camera, PMP)

Ubiquitous Devices(RFID Reader, Sensor Node)

Ubiquitous Devices(RFID Reader, Sensor Node)

Traditional Hard Real-Time Devices(Automotive, Robot, Medical System)Traditional Hard Real-Time Devices

(Automotive, Robot, Medical System)


ARMx

HAL (Device Drivers and etc. )

RT/Embedded Base Kernel

PVR DVRGame

boxPDA

Cell

PhoneRG

Middleware

Vert

ical

App

licat

ion

Choose &Configure

Choose &Configure

PostPC Design Challenges (2)

x86 PPC SH MIPS


ARMx

HAL (Device Drivers and etc. )

RT/Embedded Base Kernel

PVR DVRGame

boxPDA

Cell

PhoneRG

Middleware

Vert

ical

App

licat

ion

Choose &Configure

Choose &Configure

Vertical Customization and Component-based Design

Linux IPs, System Library

x86 PPC SH MIPS


Horizontal Requirements

Embedded systems requirementsPhysical: footprint, powerBehavior: performance, predictabilityPerformance characteristics typically determined by a few application kernelsEconomic: time to market, NRE cost constraints dominate


Customization

Embedded systems requirementsPhysical: footprint, powerBehavior: performance, predictabilityPerformance characteristics typically determined by a few application kernelsEconomic: time to market, NRE cost constraints dominate

Customization is the key !

Customization has been met with custom hardware solutions


IT-SoC


SoC Market Expansion

World Semiconductor MarketWorld SoC Market

95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 050%

15%

30%

45%

60%60%

SoC/SemiconductorMarket Ratio

Year

Chip market as a whole is expected to be $250B by 2008


SoC Success Factors

• Again, the reduction of– Time-to-market

– NRE (Non-recurring Engineering) cost

is the key to success!

• Moore’s law:– Performance doubles every 18 months

– Cost halves every 18 months?


NRE Cost Factors

Cost and risk rising to unacceptable levelsTop cost drivers

Verification (40%)Architecture Design (23%)Embedded Software Design

1400 man-months (SW)1150 man-months (HW)

HW/SW integration

Estimated Cost$85M – $90M

Example: Design with 80M transistors in 100nm technology

12 – 18 months

designverific

ation

plementa

erification

erification

ototypeoductiontion

v pr prim v


Reconfigurable IC

• NRE reduction for low-volume production

bitbit--level: level: Excalibur EPXA10 by Excalibur EPXA10 by AAltera

ALUALU--level: level: Chameleon by Chameleon Systemsltera Chameleon by Chameleon Systems


Success Strategy

Rapidly changing applicationkernels in low volume

EDATools

Power

Size

Timing

Application Specific DesignResponding via Automation


Obstacles to Overcome

• Lack of

– Design culture and methodologies

– EDA tool industry

– Embedded software industry

• Difficulties in

– Interdisciplinary R & D and education


Conclusions

• Expected rapid expansion in PostPCand SoC industries

• Success strategies

– Driving extended mobility

– Mastering horizontal spectrum of industry

– Aggressive customization to reduce time-to-market and NRE cost


Thank you!

서울대학교 전기컴퓨터공학부

실시간운영체제 연구실

홍 성 수 교수

[email protected]

Documents

PostPC와IT-SoC분야의 산업기술동향과전망 · 3G-GPRS/EDGE/WCDMA/HSDPA ... Configure Choose & Configure. ... ALU-level: Chameleon by Chameleon Systems. IT 산업전망컨퍼런스2005