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Dan Berry University High School Morgantown, West Virginia

Predicting Presidential Election Results

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Predicting Presidential Election Results. Dan Berry University High School Morgantown, West Virginia. AP Human Geography Concepts. Unit I Geography: Its Nature and Perspective F. Sources of geographical ideas and data: the field, census data Unit II Population - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Page 1: Predicting Presidential Election Results

Dan Berry

University High School

Morgantown, West Virginia

Page 2: Predicting Presidential Election Results

Unit I Geography: Its Nature and Perspective

F. Sources of geographical ideas and data: the field, census data

Unit II Population

A. Geographical analysis of population

3. Patterns of composition: age, sex, race, and ethnicity

Unit VII Political Organization of Space

C. Changes in political-territorial arrangements

4. Electoral geography, including gerrymandering

Page 3: Predicting Presidential Election Results

Texas CountiesLeaning ClintonLeaning ObamaToss-Up

0 300 Miles N

EW

S

AP US Government Class University High School

March 4 Primary PredictionClinton vs. Obama

Mr. Berry's 4th and 6th Periods

Page 4: Predicting Presidential Election Results

Election Results (cnn.com)

Page 5: Predicting Presidential Election Results

Results

•Students finished completing the data in three fifty-minute class periods.

•The only data students had to work with was that data provided by the 2000 Census which came in the GIS software. The same data can be acquired by going to the US Census Bureau web site.

Weaknesses

•Student Bias: Most of the liberal students may have leaned some of these counties towards Obama.

•While Latinos were leaning towards Clinton, counties with a large young Latino cohort were given to Obama, when in reality those counties voted for Clinton.

•Obama did not get as many suburban counties.

Strengths

•Students loved this activity. It made them feel like Carl Rove and James Carville.

Page 6: Predicting Presidential Election Results

Step 1: Go to the www.census.gov

Page 7: Predicting Presidential Election Results

Step 2: Click on State and County Quick Facts

Page 8: Predicting Presidential Election Results

Step 3: Select a state

Page 9: Predicting Presidential Election Results

Step 4: Select a County

Page 10: Predicting Presidential Election Results

Step 5: Copy the demographic data listed for each county

Page 11: Predicting Presidential Election Results

•This activity may be time-consuming, therefore have students do much of the work outside of class.

•If you have GIS software, then students can enter the data they have collected to create a map.

•If you do not have GIS software, then be sure to secure an outline map of a state with county divisions (included in this lesson).

•There can be many variations with this activity (you may even want to predict results at the precinct level).

•If you have any questions, please feel free to contact me:

[email protected]

If you want to extend this activity, continue to the next slides.

Page 12: Predicting Presidential Election Results

Step 1: Go to google.com and type esri awx

Page 13: Predicting Presidential Election Results

Step 2: Select ArcWeb Explorer

Page 14: Predicting Presidential Election Results

Step 3: Wait for the world map to download

Page 15: Predicting Presidential Election Results

Step 4: Click on “Find” and type in one of the following options listed in the find box.

Page 16: Predicting Presidential Election Results

Step 5: If you selected a street address, city, and state, it will be marked with a pin.

Page 17: Predicting Presidential Election Results

Step 6: Select “Map Types” as listed below.

Page 18: Predicting Presidential Election Results

Step 7: Select “Data Map” to examine demographic features at a smaller scale.

Page 19: Predicting Presidential Election Results

Step 8: A “Hybrid Map” combines the street map and satellite map.

Page 20: Predicting Presidential Election Results

Step 9: The Navigation feature shows a closer look.