Presentation for OAS meeting 1 Dec. 2006 1 MEASURING MILITARY CAPABILITIES MILITARY EXPENDITURE & ARMS ACQUISITIONS AND THEIR RELATION TO MILITARY CAPABILITIES

Presentation for OAS meeting 1 Dec. 2006

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MEASURING MILITARY CAPABILITIES

MILITARY EXPENDITURE & ARMS ACQUISITIONSAND THEIR RELATION TO MILITARY CAPABILITIES


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Global Military Expenditure1996-2005 in constant USD billionsGlobal Military Expenditure1996-2005 in constant USD billions

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

OAS Europe Middle East Asia Africa


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OAS Military ExpenditureShares 2001-2005

OAS Military ExpenditureShares 2001-2005

USACanadaCentral AmericaSouth AmericaCaribbean


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OAS Military Expenditure1996-2005 in constant USD billionsOAS Military Expenditure1996-2005 in constant USD billions

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

South America Central America Caribbean


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Global Arms Imports1996-2005 in SIPRI TIV

Global Arms Imports1996-2005 in SIPRI TIV

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005

OAS Others


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OAS Arms Imports1996-2005 in SIPRI TIVOAS Arms Imports1996-2005 in SIPRI TIV

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005

Central America South America North America Caribbean


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OAS Arms ImportsShares 2001-2005

OAS Arms ImportsShares 2001-2005

CanadaBrazilChilePeruColombiaMexicoArgentinaVenezuelaOthers


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What is wrong with the previous pictures?

What is wrong with the previous pictures?

They do NOT give good indications of military capability

Bean CountingMilitary expenditure and arms acquisitions do NOT make military capability - they are ONLY two of many indicators

They are very weak indicators - certainly when not disaggregated

They do NOT give good indications of military capability

Bean CountingMilitary expenditure and arms acquisitions do NOT make military capability - they are ONLY two of many indicators

They are very weak indicators - certainly when not disaggregated


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How then to measure military capability?How then to measure military capability?

Military capability is in the end only really measurable on the battlefield

Second (and preferred) option is using different quantitative and qualitative data

Military capability is in the end only really measurable on the battlefield

Second (and preferred) option is using different quantitative and qualitative data


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What data are needed?What data are needed?

QuantityWhat is there? Holdings = existing inventory + acquisition + modernization - deletion)

QualityHow good is it? Technical parameters + ageHow is it used? How good are the users?What logistic support is there? How long will the platforms last?

What is the balance of equipment?

QuantityWhat is there? Holdings = existing inventory + acquisition + modernization - deletion)

QualityHow good is it? Technical parameters + ageHow is it used? How good are the users?What logistic support is there? How long will the platforms last?

What is the balance of equipment?


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Equipment data neededEquipment data needed

NumbersPlatforms

Types (detailed)Age and modernizations

Consumption goodsAmmunitionSpares

NumbersPlatforms

Types (detailed)Age and modernizations

Consumption goodsAmmunitionSpares


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Context data neededContext data needed

Military contextBasingDoctrineTrainingNetwork or integration of forces

Policy contextDefence and foreign policyCulture - national will to use military force

Military contextBasingDoctrineTrainingNetwork or integration of forces

Policy contextDefence and foreign policyCulture - national will to use military force


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Where to get data?Where to get data?

NumbersRegisters (UNROCA, OAS - with as much detail as possible)

Budgets (disaggregated)Background

Policy statements (white papers) and policy practice

Training and operation ‘manuals’Observation (exchanges)Joint exercises and operations

NumbersRegisters (UNROCA, OAS - with as much detail as possible)

Budgets (disaggregated)Background

Policy statements (white papers) and policy practice

Training and operation ‘manuals’Observation (exchanges)Joint exercises and operations


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How relevant is measuring of military

capabilities?

How relevant is measuring of military

capabilities?A must in areas of tension

Of much less relevance for international relations in peaceful environments

But relevant for internal use (measuring of own military capabilities)Synchronizing defence with foreign policy

A must in areas of tension

Of much less relevance for international relations in peaceful environments

But relevant for internal use (measuring of own military capabilities)Synchronizing defence with foreign policy


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Where does that leave UN MILEX mechanism?

Where does that leave UN MILEX mechanism?

Good - disaggregated dataGood - standardizationBad - voluntaryBad - very few reportNever meant really to be used for measuring military capabilities, recognizing threats and early warning

Good - disaggregated dataGood - standardizationBad - voluntaryBad - very few reportNever meant really to be used for measuring military capabilities, recognizing threats and early warning


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Where does that leave UNROCA?

Where does that leave UNROCA?

Good - numbers and typesGood - possibility for background info and data

Bad - only importsBad - only traditional ‘aggressive’ weapons

Bad - voluntaryBad - important importers do not report

Good - numbers and typesGood - possibility for background info and data

Bad - only importsBad - only traditional ‘aggressive’ weapons

Bad - voluntaryBad - important importers do not report


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Where does that leave OSCE exchange of

information?

Where does that leave OSCE exchange of

information? Good - mandatory Good - numbers and types Good - including some support/force multiplier systems

Good - verification Good - reporting on planned acquisition Good - acquisitions and holdings Good - info on doctrine and policy But not in region in much need of it

Good - mandatory Good - numbers and types Good - including some support/force multiplier systems

Good - verification Good - reporting on planned acquisition Good - acquisitions and holdings Good - info on doctrine and policy But not in region in much need of it


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Where does that leave OAS Convention?

Where does that leave OAS Convention?

Good - mandatoryGood - numbers and typesGood - includes all acquisitionsBad - no holdingsBad - only traditional ‘aggressive’ weapons

Bad - no background infoBad? - very few reportBut not in a region in much need of it

Good - mandatoryGood - numbers and typesGood - includes all acquisitionsBad - no holdingsBad - only traditional ‘aggressive’ weapons

Bad - no background infoBad? - very few reportBut not in a region in much need of it

Documents

Presentation for OAS meeting 1 Dec. 2006 1 MEASURING MILITARY CAPABILITIES MILITARY EXPENDITURE & ARMS ACQUISITIONS AND THEIR RELATION TO MILITARY CAPABILITIES