Photo : Kristina Koenig, Manitoba Hydro

w

ww

.our

anos

.ca

VULNERABILITIES, IMPACTS AND ADAPTATIONPROGRAM : ENERGY

PROJECT START AND END DATESDECEMBER 2013 • 2 years

INFORMATION

Jacinthe Clavet-Gaumontprojet@ouranos.ca 514-282-6464www.ouranos.ca

Hydroelectricity accounts for about 63% of total electricity generated in Canada. For major dams or for those whose failure may cause loss of life or significant economic losses the Probable Maximum Precipitation (PMP) and the Probable Maximum Flood (PMF) are criteria commonly used in their design and safety analyses. The PMF is estimated to be the flood generated by the most severe precipitation event possible at a site at a particular time of year (referred to as the PMP). Analysis of the observed records and future climate model projections indicate that the occurrence and frequency of extreme precipitation events are increasing. In addition, recent studies indicate that both the PMP and PMF are sensitive to climate change and establishing future projections for these extreme variables poses challenges for both researchers and practitioners. This project seeks to provide Canadian dam managers with credible estimates of maximized precipitation using numerical climate simulations that account for climate change. These estimates will be used by collaborating hydrologists to compute PMFs for a diverse set of Canadian watersheds used for energy production.

Improve and operationalize a methodology to estimate maximized precipitation to use in evaluating Probable Maximum Flood (PMF) criteria that are robust under plausible climate change conditions.

Review existing publications on PMP estimations from conventional observations, climate and weather prediction models. Estimate change in future precipitation extremes over selected basins, compared to a recent historical period with the help of global and regional climate models to evaluate the uncertainty associated to the subset of regional models considered in this study.Compute PMPs from 50-km resolution regional climate simulations in the historical and future periods, for durations of 24, 48, 72 and 120 hours, to provide a factor of change over a diverse set of watersheds across Canada where large dams are operated. Estimate change in PMFs based on the PMPs computed changes.Identify potential adaptation options for each dam studied.

A review of the litterature on conventional and climate model PMP estimation.An evaluation of changes in PMPs and PMFs at selected basins, including an assessment of the uncertainties. A technical document in both official languages providing guidelines in the estimation and application of PMPs in a future climate context based on the experience gained through the project.A non-technical report in both official languages summarizing the approach and results from the case studies, as well as options available to dam managers to adapt to climate change.

C O N T E X T

O B J E C T I V E

M E T H O D O L O G Y

R E S U L T S E X P E C T E D

FUNDED BY

PRINCIPAL INVESTIGATORS

Anne Frigon, OuranosKristina Koenig, Manitoba Hydro

OTHER PARTICIPANTS

PROJECT IN PROGRESSPROBABLE MAXIMUM PRECIPITATION AND PROBABLE MAXIMUM FLOOD UNDER CHANGING CLIMATE CONDITIONS

•

Centre d’expertise hydrique du Québec (CEHQ)Hydro-QuébecInstitut national de la recherche scientifique Eau-Terre-Environnement (INRS-ETE)Manitoba HydroOntario Power GenerationRio Tinto Alcan

This project will increase the capacity of Canadian dam managers to consider climate change in their decision-making processes. It will also permit a knowledge transfer on the computation of PMPs and improve understanding of climate change consequences affecting critical melt scenarios and 100 year return maximum snow cover. The results from this project will be useful to apply the method elsewhere in Canada by other hydroelectric producers and dams managers and increase their adaptation capacity to climate change.

I M P L I C A T I O N S F O R A D A P T A T I O N

•

•

••

•

•

•

•

••

•••

••

•