3
profit.com.pk Uncle Sam could spare some cash for our coal sector Page 03 Monday, 07 May, 2012 I T’S not that tapi is inappropriate, it’s just that it might not be the most appropriate of things right now. Pipelines are good, and we definitely need a lot more of those. And a lot many of them will pass through countries surrounding us to get to us. And some of the time some of them might not be our best friends. What is more, some of them might not even be their own best friends. like in Afghanistan, where some of them are sure to blow up parts of it, which is why tapi’s been prompting clearing of throats at board meetings for almost two decades. A pipeline like tapi is likely to be to Pakistan what radio-therapy is for people who can’t afford it, in places where it’s not available for free. It’s going to be very expensive. And even the most lenient risk assessments will almost certainly guarantee 100 per cent chances of attack/sabotage. Is it really what should draw our funds – harder to get hold of with time – especially when movement on the other, good pipeline (Iran- Pakistan) is still slow for some reason and it’s longevity seems increasingly in doubt? Still, we do need gas, so we will need these pipelines. Perhaps that’s the call in Islamabad, the donors’ nod indicating the plan sits well with them as well. expect serious announcements in Afghanistan soon, about how the American withdrawal will be followed by reconstruction on an unprecedented scale, how acts of terrorism like blowing up pipelines will become things of the past. Come to think of it, should Afghanistan’s use as pipeline host be accompanied by a visible improvement in people’s lives, why would anybody have a problem with it? Perhaps a serious turnaround in Afghanistan is really around the corner. Perhaps Islamabad has come to buy this narrative, at the very least. CommENT Careful with tapi NEW YORK REUTERS G lOBAl stocks swooned and crude oil tumbled on Friday after a weak U.S. jobs report and data that suggested a deeper recession across the than previously thought dented sentiment. Major U.S. and european stock indexes fell more than 1 percent, oil slumped about 4 percent and government debt prices jumped after the labor Department said American employers reduced hiring more than expected in April. The week was the worst this year for Wall Street stocks, with energy leading the decline. The S&P energy index .GSPe of 44 gas and oil-related companies fell 2.2 percent on fears a worsening economy would sap demand. “We have broken through key technical levels here after a disappointing employment report and the PMI number from europe which suggest that the recovery is stalling and could affect energy consumption,” said Gene McGillian of Tradition energy. Just 115,000 workers were added to payrolls last month, or 55,000 less than economists expected. While the unemployment rate fell one-tenth of a point to 8.1 percent, a three-year low, that was only because the workforce shrank as people retired or stopped seeking work. The third straight monthly decline in hiring growth spurred concerns that the U.S. economy is losing momentum and doused hopes that a stretch of strong winter hiring had signaled a turning point for the U.S. recovery. The Dow Jones industrial average closed down 168.32 points, or 1.27 percent, at 13,038.27. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index fell 22.47 points, or 1.61 percent, at 1,369.10. The Nasdaq Composite Index slid 67.96 points, or 2.25 percent, at 2,956.34. The U.S. jobs data added to the gloomy tone from europe, where purchasing managers’ indexes, primarily covering services, suggested a recession across the euro zone could extend to mid-year and be deeper than previously imagined. Markit’s eurozone Services PMI, which gauges business activity over a month, came in at 46.9 for April, sharply lower than 49.2 in March. Anything below 50 signifies contraction. The JPMorgan Global Purchasing All-Industry Output Index of about 20 countries showed declines in April from March. In europe, the pan-european FTSeurofirst 300 index closed down 1.7 percent at 1,027.15, and the euro STOXX 50 index fell 1.7 percent to 2,248.34 , despite strong earnings from Royal Bank of Scotland (RBS.l), BNP Paribas (BNPP.PA) and lafarge (lAFP.PA). MSCI’s all-country world equity index .MIWD00000PUS fell 1.5 percent to 321.72. Benchmark in london fell to three-month lows around $113 a barrel, its steepest weekly fall since December, after the weak jobs report. Brent’s slide took three-day losses to more than 5 percent. While the downbeat data weighed, traders said a combination of less-definitive factors - from confusion over margin changes to the breach of the 200-day moving average - compounded selling. Brent settled down $2.90 at $113.18 a barrel, lows last seen in early February. U.S. crude settled down $4.05 at $98.49 a barrel. Some analysts said the jobs report, which followed weaker-than-expected services sector data this week, will fuel hopes for a third round of stimulus, or quantitative easing, by the Federal Reserve to keep rates low and to foster growth. “The data in the U.S. is weakening somewhat. It puts into play that if the economy in the U.S. continues to weaken then Qe3 will be on the table, so there are really no sellers of Treasuries,” said Charles Comiskey, head of Treasuries trading at Bank of Nova Scotia in New York. The benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note rose 16/32 in price to yield 1.88 percent, and the 30-year U.S. Treasury bond gained almost a full point in price to yield 3.07 percent. Gold rose as the weak data boosted bullion’s investment appeal on talk that a weaker economy might prompt further monetary easing by the Fed. U.S. gold futures for June delivery settled up $10.40 an ounce at $1,645.20. The dollar slipped against the yen in volatile trading after the payrolls number, with the U.S. currency down 0.45 percent at 79.83 yen. The U.S. dollar index .DXY rose 0.33 percent at 79.481. The euro was down 0.47 percent at $1.3088. Stocks, oil slump on weak jobs data DATA DIvE ISLAMABAD ONLINE T he system of international fi- nancial safety nets needs to be reorganized to ensure sufficient liquidity to combat systemic crises, said by Asian Development Bank (ADB) seminar’s speakers. “International and regional financial safety nets have become much more im- portant in an era of globalized financial markets and volatile capital flows,” said ADB Chief economist Changyong Rhee. “To enable developing Asia to ride out fi- nancial storms, what is needed is a new, flexible system that is truly international and adequately financed.” Speakers at the seminar, co-sponsored by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and Philippines Central Bank, emphasized that reform of the international financial system had become more pressing since the 1997–98 Asian financial crisis to pre- vent localized crises from spreading to the global economy. The crisis prompted ASeAN+3 coun- tries to launch the Chiang Mai Initiative (CMI) in 2000 to provide emergency liq- uidity. The initiative began as a bilateral currency swap facility, but after the 2008- 09 global economic crises it grew into a multilateral facility, the Chiang Mai Initia- tive Multilateralisation (CMIM). On 3 May, ASeAN+3 announced a doubling of the CMIM to $240 billion and an increase in the amount countries can access without IMF conditionalities. The network of fi- nancing arrangements, however, remains a work in progress, as seen by the numer- ous reforms since the 2008-09 crises, the audience heard. The challenge is to find a solution that provides the needed support to countries without giving rise to undue risk, such as the IMF lending facilities tar- geted to countries with a track record of sound policies. Panelists discussed how the current system could be reformed and what role existing and new regional financ- ing mechanisms would play. Other issues touched upon included how reforming in- ternational financial safety nets could lead to progress on important global macroeco- nomic issues and how reform would affect exchange rate policy and international capital flows. DISCUSSING ALL THINGS FISCAL Get your act together! g System of international fnancial safety nets needs to be reorganised: ADB ISLAMABAD ONLINE T he controversy triggered over finalization of macroeconomic figures is likely to delay the presentation of next federal budget till the first week of June, said an official, requesting anonymity. Budget was to be presented on May 25th this month but due to controversy triggered over rebasing date is create fear of delaying the presentation of federal budget till first week of June. According to sources familiar with the matter told Online Saturday that Finance Ministry has also sought one week delay in presenting the federal budget while citing delay in budget making process. “Federal Minister for Finance and Deputy Chairman Planning Commission had expressed their displeasure over the National Accounts Committee’s decision for approving GDP growth rate at 3.2 per cent,” said the official, adding that due to these angry economic managers the National Accounts Committee’s approved decisions had revived in the meeting of the Governing Council of the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS) which was held on May 04. The Meeting of National Accounts Committee (NeC) was held last month on April 26 and approved Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth figure at 3.2 per cent. A meeting of the Governing Council of the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS) was held on 4th May, under the chairmanship of the Minister for Finance Dr.Abdul hafeez Sheikh. In the meeting the Members of the Council raised many observations and concerns regarding the methodology, the quality of primary data base on various sectors of the economy, analytical framework and the restructuring steps taken by PBS to adjust the GDP of the past 10 years. The Council also expressed concerns on lack of adequate consultations with stakeholders including academia and multilaterals on the technical aspects prior to taking rebasing data to the National Accounts Committee as was done during the previous rebasing exercise. It figures Budget delaying excuse numero uno g Controversy over finalisation of macroeconomic figures likely to delay budget PRO 07-05-2012_Layout 1 5/7/2012 3:29 AM Page 1

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profit.com.pk

Uncle Sam could sparesome cash for our coalsector Page 03

Monday, 07 May, 2012

IT’S not that tapi isinappropriate, it’s just that itmight not be the most

appropriate of things right now.Pipelines are good, and wedefinitely need a lot more ofthose. And a lot many of them willpass through countriessurrounding us to get to us. Andsome of the time some of themmight not be our best friends.What is more, some of themmight not even be their own bestfriends. like in Afghanistan,where some of them are sure toblow up parts of it, which is whytapi’s been prompting clearing ofthroats at board meetings foralmost two decades.A pipeline like tapi is likely to be toPakistan what radio-therapy is forpeople who can’t afford it, inplaces where it’s not available forfree. It’s going to be veryexpensive. And even the mostlenient risk assessments willalmost certainly guarantee 100 percent chances of attack/sabotage. Isit really what should draw ourfunds – harder to get hold of withtime – especially when movementon the other, good pipeline (Iran-Pakistan) is still slow for somereason and it’s longevity seemsincreasingly in doubt?Still, we do need gas, so we willneed these pipelines. Perhapsthat’s the call in Islamabad, thedonors’ nod indicating the plansits well with them as well.expect serious announcementsin Afghanistan soon, about howthe American withdrawal will befollowed by reconstruction on anunprecedented scale, how acts ofterrorism like blowing uppipelines will become things ofthe past.Come to think of it, shouldAfghanistan’s use as pipeline hostbe accompanied by a visibleimprovement in people’s lives,why would anybody have aproblem with it? Perhaps a seriousturnaround in Afghanistan isreally around the corner. PerhapsIslamabad has come to buy thisnarrative, at the very least.

CommeNT

Careful with tapi

NEW YORK

REUTERS

GlOBAl stocks swooned andcrude oil tumbled on Fridayafter a weak U.S. jobs reportand data that suggested a

deeper recession across the thanpreviously thought dented sentiment.Major U.S. and european stockindexes fell more than 1 percent, oilslumped about 4 percent andgovernment debt prices jumped afterthe labor Department said Americanemployers reduced hiring more thanexpected in April.The week was the worst this year forWall Street stocks, with energy leadingthe decline. The S&P energy index.GSPe of 44 gas and oil-relatedcompanies fell 2.2 percent on fears aworsening economy would sapdemand.

“We have broken through key technicallevels here after a disappointingemployment report and the PMInumber from europe which suggestthat the recovery is stalling and couldaffect energy consumption,” said GeneMcGillian of Tradition energy.Just 115,000 workers were added topayrolls last month, or 55,000 less thaneconomists expected. While theunemployment rate fell one-tenth of apoint to 8.1 percent, a three-year low,that was only because the workforceshrank as people retired or stoppedseeking work.The third straight monthly decline inhiring growth spurred concerns thatthe U.S. economy is losing momentumand doused hopes that a stretch ofstrong winter hiring had signaled aturning point for the U.S. recovery.The Dow Jones industrial averageclosed down 168.32 points, or 1.27

percent, at 13,038.27. The Standard &Poor’s 500 Index fell 22.47 points, or1.61 percent, at 1,369.10. The NasdaqComposite Index slid 67.96 points, or2.25 percent, at 2,956.34.The U.S. jobs data added to the gloomytone from europe, where purchasingmanagers’ indexes, primarily coveringservices, suggested a recession acrossthe euro zone could extend to mid-yearand be deeper than previouslyimagined. Markit’s eurozone ServicesPMI, which gauges business activityover a month, came in at 46.9 for April,sharply lower than 49.2 in March.Anything below 50 signifiescontraction. The JPMorgan GlobalPurchasing All-Industry Output Indexof about 20 countries showed declinesin April from March. In europe, thepan-european FTSeurofirst 300 indexclosed down 1.7 percent at 1,027.15,and the euro STOXX 50 index fell 1.7

percent to 2,248.34 , despite strongearnings from Royal Bank of Scotland(RBS.l), BNP Paribas (BNPP.PA) andlafarge (lAFP.PA).MSCI’s all-country world equity index.MIWD00000PUS fell 1.5 percent to321.72. Benchmark in london fell tothree-month lows around $113 a barrel,its steepest weekly fall since December,after the weak jobs report. Brent’s slidetook three-day losses to more than 5percent. While the downbeat dataweighed, traders said a combination ofless-definitive factors - from confusionover margin changes to the breach ofthe 200-day moving average -compounded selling.Brent settled down $2.90 at $113.18 abarrel, lows last seen in early February.U.S. crude settled down $4.05 at$98.49 a barrel.Some analysts said the jobs report,which followed weaker-than-expected

services sector data this week, will fuelhopes for a third round of stimulus, orquantitative easing, by the FederalReserve to keep rates low and to fostergrowth.“The data in the U.S. is weakeningsomewhat. It puts into play that if theeconomy in the U.S. continues toweaken then Qe3 will be on the table,so there are really no sellers ofTreasuries,” said Charles Comiskey,head of Treasuries trading at Bank ofNova Scotia in New York.The benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasurynote rose 16/32 in price to yield 1.88percent, and the 30-year U.S. Treasurybond gained almost a full point in priceto yield 3.07 percent.Gold rose as the weak data boostedbullion’s investment appeal on talk thata weaker economy might promptfurther monetary easing by the Fed.U.S. gold futures for June deliverysettled up $10.40 an ounce at$1,645.20.The dollar slipped against the yen involatile trading after the payrollsnumber, with the U.S. currency down0.45 percent at 79.83 yen.The U.S. dollar index .DXY rose 0.33percent at 79.481.The euro was down 0.47 percent at$1.3088.

Stocks, oil slump on weak jobs dataDATA DIve

ISLAMABAD

ONLINE

The system of international fi-nancial safety nets needs to bereorganized to ensure sufficientliquidity to combat systemic

crises, said by Asian Development Bank

(ADB) seminar’s speakers.“International and regional financial

safety nets have become much more im-portant in an era of globalized financialmarkets and volatile capital flows,” saidADB Chief economist Changyong Rhee.“To enable developing Asia to ride out fi-nancial storms, what is needed is a new,

flexible system that is truly internationaland adequately financed.”

Speakers at the seminar, co-sponsoredby the International Monetary Fund (IMF)and Philippines Central Bank, emphasizedthat reform of the international financialsystem had become more pressing sincethe 1997–98 Asian financial crisis to pre-vent localized crises from spreading to theglobal economy.

The crisis prompted ASeAN+3 coun-tries to launch the Chiang Mai Initiative(CMI) in 2000 to provide emergency liq-uidity. The initiative began as a bilateralcurrency swap facility, but after the 2008-09 global economic crises it grew into amultilateral facility, the Chiang Mai Initia-tive Multilateralisation (CMIM). On 3May, ASeAN+3 announced a doubling ofthe CMIM to $240 billion and an increase

in the amount countries can access withoutIMF conditionalities. The network of fi-nancing arrangements, however, remainsa work in progress, as seen by the numer-ous reforms since the 2008-09 crises, theaudience heard. The challenge is to find asolution that provides the needed supportto countries without giving rise to unduerisk, such as the IMF lending facilities tar-geted to countries with a track record ofsound policies. Panelists discussed howthe current system could be reformed andwhat role existing and new regional financ-ing mechanisms would play. Other issuestouched upon included how reforming in-ternational financial safety nets could leadto progress on important global macroeco-nomic issues and how reform would affectexchange rate policy and internationalcapital flows.

DISCUSSING ALL THINGS FISCAL

Get your act together!g System of international financial safety nets needs to bereorganised: ADB

ISLAMABAD

ONLINE

The controversy triggered overfinalization of macroeconomicfigures is likely to delay thepresentation of next federal

budget till the first week of June, saidan official, requesting anonymity.Budget was to be presented on May25th this month but due to controversytriggered over rebasing date is createfear of delaying the presentation offederal budget till first week of June.

According to sources familiar with thematter told Online Saturday thatFinance Ministry has also sought oneweek delay in presenting the federalbudget while citing delay in budgetmaking process. “Federal Minister forFinance and Deputy Chairman PlanningCommission had expressed theirdispleasure over the National AccountsCommittee’s decision for approvingGDP growth rate at 3.2 per cent,” saidthe official, adding that due to theseangry economic managers the NationalAccounts Committee’s approved

decisions had revived in the meeting ofthe Governing Council of the PakistanBureau of Statistics (PBS) which washeld on May 04. The Meeting ofNational Accounts Committee (NeC)was held last month on April 26 andapproved Gross Domestic Product(GDP) growth figure at 3.2 per cent. Ameeting of the Governing Council of thePakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS) washeld on 4th May, under thechairmanship of the Minister forFinance Dr.Abdul hafeez Sheikh. In themeeting the Members of the Council

raised many observations and concernsregarding the methodology, the qualityof primary data base on various sectorsof the economy, analytical frameworkand the restructuring steps taken byPBS to adjust the GDP of the past 10years. The Council also expressedconcerns on lack of adequateconsultations with stakeholdersincluding academia and multilaterals onthe technical aspects prior to takingrebasing data to the National AccountsCommittee as was done during theprevious rebasing exercise.

It figures

Budget delaying excuse numero uno g Controversy over finalisation of macroeconomic figures likely to delay budget

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Page 2: profitepaper pakistantoday 07th may, 2012

news02Monday, 07 May, 2012

KCCI THINKS BIG

NEW YORK

REUTERS

WAll Street ended itsworst week this yearwith a sharp sell off onFriday after a

slowdown in job creation in theworld’s top economy raised thebiggest question mark yet about theprospects for US growthemployers reduced hiring for thethird straight month, adding115,000 workers in April, well belowforecasts of 170,000. Traders’expectations had fallen during theweek, but the softer jobs numbermissed even more pessimisticforecasts.energy shares were the worstperformers, with the S&P energyindex .GSPe down 2.2 percent onfears a worsening economy wouldsap demand. Oil fell 4 percent,dropping below $100 a barrel forthe first time since February. The sharp retreat this week was ablow to investors who had beenhoping the S&P 500 would breakout to new recovery highs. The

index is now moving away fromstrong resistance at the 1,400 levelafter failing to make a convincingmove above it.“When we entered the secondquarter, we thought it would be aconsolidation/correction quarterfor the market simply because itwas overbought, over-believed, andwe saw economies were notimproving, and that is still thecase,” said Bruce Bittles, chiefinvestment strategist of Robert W.Baird & Co in Nashville. For theweek, the S&P 500 lost 2.4 percent,its worst weekly performance sinceDecember. Investors were alsocautious ahead of elections in andGreece over the weekend aseuropean policymakers struggle tobring an end to their debt crisisand people rebel against the strainof austerity measures. The utilitysector index .GSPU, considered adefensive play, was the only S&P500 sector in positive territory, up0.2 percent. Shares of CenterPointenergy () led, up 1.7 percent at$20.05.The Dow Jones industrial average

dropped 168.32 points, or 1.27percent, to 13,038.27 at the close.The Standard & Poor’s 500 Indexlost 22.47 points, or 1.61 percent, to1,369.10. The Nasdaq Compositefell 67.96 points, or 2.25 percent, to2,956.34.The selloff came on the highestvolume in two weeks. Around 7.02billion shares were traded on theNYSe, the and the NYSe Amex,above the daily average of 6.76billion. On the NYSe, declinersoutnumbered advancers by a ratioof 3 to 1. On the Nasdaq, four stocksfell for every one that rose.In the oil sector, Chevron Corp ()dropped 2.1 percent to $103.72while exxon Mobil Corp () slipped1.3 percent to $84.57. Both rankedamong the Dow’s top losers, alongwith other big names ineconomically sensitive sectors.With this week’s retreat, much ofthe S&P 500’s gains from the moveoff the April closing low at 1,358.59have been erased. The market hasfound support around that level inthe past, but a breach there couldtake it back to 1,340.

KARACHI

STAFF REPORT

KARAChI Chamber of Commerce &Industry’s President Mian AbrarAhmad urged the support ofGermany for Pak eU bilateral

investment treaty in order to fortify trade withthe countries of european Union. he statedthat Pakistan is the most promising country forinvestment by German investors. Whileexchanging views with the First Secretary &head of economic Section of German embassyin Pakistan Samy Saadi said that Pakistan andGermany friendly relations are deep-rootedand encompassed over last many decades.Germans are well aware about the strength ofPakistan which is concealed due to hugepropaganda drum beat in the Western mediaand biased reporting about the perception ofPakistan by western channels in the countriesaround the globe, he said. he articulated thatPakistan and Germany have upgraded their 50year old trade and investment treaty forproviding better opportunities and protectionto each other’s investors. The ‘Agreement onencouragement and Reciprocal Protection ofInvestments’ will cover all modern and legalrequirements that the investor needs to investin other countries with complete protection.Germany is an important country in european

Union which can help Pakistan for gettingconcessional regimes in eU, GSP plus andfurther entering to Preferntial and Free TradeAgreement with the eU with preferred marketaccess, he maintained.First Secretary & head of economic Section ofGerman embassy in Pakistan Samy Saadirecognized the vibrant role of Karachi Chamberto promote trade and industry. he said thatmany leading German companies includingSiemens, MAC, Bayer, linde and other aresuccessfully operating in Pakistan moreGerman companies are expected to invest inPakistan. he informed that German TradeShow was organized in Punjab to introduce thepresence of German companies and similarshow is planned in Karachi. MeTRO is furtherexpanding its stores and helping in agriculturesector to farmers, he said. he stated thedeliberations were underway and Pak-GermanBilateral Treaty will be revised soon. Germanysupports Pakistan for GSP plus in eU as well asthe signing of Pak-eU bilateral investmenttreaty. he appreciated that the trade of Pakistanwith regional countries would bring economicstability. Within eU Germany has become thebiggest trading partner with Pakistan andGerman investment in Pakistan is likely to rise,he maintained.

Courtesy: Project Syndicate

LAHORE

STAFF REPORT

IN the prevailing global and nationaleconomic scenario, winning customertrust and provision of quality products

is vital for businesses. Only thosebusinesses would be able to make theirpresence felt in the national andinternational market that have grasp overmarketing techniques. This was the crux of the speeches made bythe experts at two-day Sales Conferenceorganized at the lahore Chamber ofCommerce and Industry on Saturday. Thespeakers included lCCI President IrfanQaiser sheikh, CeO CeI logistics AmirMunir, hassan Amjad, head of CustomerServices Wateen Telecom Ahmad Saeed,CeO Kashf Micro Finance Bank MudassirAqil, CeO hotel One haseeb Gardezi whileRehmatullah Javaid was prominent amongthe panelists. The subjects touched upon bythe experts included CustomerRelationship, Sales ethics and Fear ofFailure or Rejection. They said that swiftchanges in the global market have

highlighted the need for a long- term salesplanning. Pakistani businesses must evolvetheir sales and marketing strategies tosurvive and prosper in the rapidly evolvingglobal economy. The lCCI President IrfanQaiser Sheikh said that the conference ispart of the lahore Chamber of Commerceefforts to enhance the capacity andoutreach of its members and students. hesaid that the presence of large number ofprofessionals and students in theconference is an indicator of the need ofeffective sales and marketing. During thefour working sessions and paneldiscussions Chief executives of variousprestigious organizations shared their salesand marketing strategies. Mudassir Aqil,CeO Kashf Bank emphasized the need ofrelation based sales to low incomesegments of the society. he said thateffective marketing has lead to sustainedgrowth in micro finance sector. haseebGardezi, CeO of hotel One emphasised theneed of sales force management in thehospitality business. In the concludingsession Irfan Qaiser Sheikh distributedshields among the speakers and organizers.

Helfen Sie uns!

MARTIN FELDSTEIN

AT the moment, America’seconomy is limping alongwith slow growth and highunemployment. Output grew

by just 1.5% last year, and real GDP percapita is lower now than before theeconomic downturn began at the end of2007. Although annual GDP growthwas 3% in the fourth quarter of 2011,more than half of that reflectedinventory accumulation. Final sales tohouseholds, businesses, and foreignbuyers rose at only a 1.1% annual rate,even slower than earlier in the year.And the preliminary estimate forannual GDP growth in the first quarterof 2012 was a disappointing 2.2%, withonly a 1.6% rise in final sales.The labor market has been similarlydisappointing. The Marchunemployment rate of 8.2% was nearlythree percentage points above whatmost economists would consider adesirable and sustainable long-runlevel rate. Although the rate was down

from 9% a year ago, about half of thechange reflected a rise in the number ofpeople who have stopped looking forwork, rather than an increase in jobcreation and the employment rate.Indeed, the official unemployment rateunderstates the weakness of the labormarket. An estimated 6% of allemployees are working fewer hours perweek than they would like, and about2% of potential employees are notcounted as unemployed because theyhave not looked for work in the pastfew weeks, even though they would liketo work. Adding these individuals tothose officially classified asunemployed implies that about 15% ofpotential labor-force participants areworking less than they want.Solid increases in payroll employmentat the start of the year contributed to ageneral sense of confidence. But therate of increase in payroll employmentfell in March to less than half of therate recorded in previous months, andthe number of workers claimingunemployment benefits recentlyjumped to a four-month high.

even those who are working areseeing their incomes shrink. Realaverage weekly earnings have fallenin recent months, and are now lowerthan they were 18 months ago. Thebroader measure of real per capitaafter-tax personal income has alsobeen falling, and is back to levels lastseen a year ago.Despite their declining incomes,households raised their spending inearly 2012 at a rapid pace by cuttingtheir saving rate to just 3.7%. Withoutfurther declines in the saving ratefrom this very low level, consumerspending will not continue to grow asrobustly. Recent reports of decliningconsumer confidence reinforce thelikelihood that spending will slow inthe months ahead.Moreover, the housing market remainsin bad shape. The most reliable indexof comparable house prices hascontinued to decline month aftermonth, and prices are now about 7%lower in real terms than a year ago,implying a $1 trillion loss of householdwealth. With roughly 25% of all

homeowners with mortgages owingmore than their homes are worth, thedecline in house prices reflects highrates of default and foreclosure. Fallingprices, together with stricter lendingstandards, has spurred a shift bywould-be home buyers to the rentalmarket, causing recent declines in thesales of both new and existing homes.The weakness of America’s economy isnot limited to the household sector.Industrial production has beenunchanged for the past two months,and utilization of industrial capacityhas declined. And the monthlypurchasing surveys conducted by theInstitute for Supply Management nowindicate weaker activity among servicefirms as well.looking ahead, strong headwindsimply that it will be difficult to achievebetter economic performance in therest of the year. higher energy pricesare reducing real household spendingon non-energy goods and services;weakness in europe and Asia will hurtAmerica’s exports; state and localgovernments are cutting their

spending; and concerns about highertaxes in 2013 will dampen bothbusiness investment and big-ticketconsumer spending.The economy is thus shaping up to bea serious liability for President BarackObama, who is likely to place theblame on the conditions that heinherited from President George W.Bush, and on the Republican majorityin the house of Representatives. Butthe public is likely to place the blameon the president, and surveys indicatethat a growing number of Americansbelieve that Mitt Romney, the almostcertain Republican candidate, woulddo a better job than Obama atmanaging the economy.The polls are very close, and votershave not yet locked in their decisions.The economy could rise more sharplythan expected in the months ahead. Ifnot, Obama will try to shift attentionfrom the overall economy byemphasizing his plan to raise taxes onhigh-income individuals. And a varietyof other issues, including immigrationand the role of women, mightinfluence voters.But the state of the economy is usuallythe most important determinant of whowins national elections in the UnitedStates. And US economic conditionsnow favor Romney.

LCCI talks up marketing techniques

The economy and the presidency

g Pakistan seeks Germany’s support for Pak-eU Investment Treaty

Wall Street posts worst weekof 2012 as job growth slows

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news

Monday, 07 May, 2012

03

GSK to increase investment in consumerhealthcare brands

KARACHI: GlaxoSmithKline (GSK) has reinforced itscommitment to Pakistan by announcing it will increaseinvestment in consumer healthcare brands over the next fiveyears. It will do so via the introduction of new brands in itsWellness, Oral health and Nutrition portfolios; said Mr. JohnSayers, President of GSK Consumer health for Asia, Pacific,latin America, Africa and Middle east (APlAM) at a pressconference held at the Karachi Sheraton hotel. Sayers wasaccompanied by members of his leadership Team includingMr. Ambati Venu, Vice President and General Manager forthe Middle east and Mr. Sohail Matin, General Manager forPakistan. Sayers spoke at length on GSK’s commitment toPakistan as an emerging market on which there will beextensive focus in the coming years. he explained that GSKhad identified emerging markets such as Pakistan as futuregrowth drivers for the company. “Pakistan offers a diversepopulation pool that has significant growth potential and isstrongly registering on our consumer healthcare investmentradar,” stated Mr. Ambati Venu. he reiterated his belief thatPakistan would be one of the future growth markets not onlyfor the Middle east region but also for the global business.Sohail Matin said, “GSK has a long standing presence ofnearly 60 years in Pakistan and it is the Consumer healthcareBusiness’ ambition to become the First & Best Fast MovingConsumer healthcare Company not only in Pakistan, but alsoglobally. GSK Consumer healthcare is a company guided byscientific innovation, values and consumer focus and thesewill be the driving force for the Company’s growth ambitionsin Pakistan.” PRESS RELEASE

ACCA organises a pre-budget seminarLAHORE: In order to facilitate industry, government andfinancial expert engagement and perspective sharing on theshape of the upcoming Federal Budget, ACCA Pakistanorganised a Pre-Budget Seminar on Saturday. In thesession, ACCA Pakistan and other experts discussed variousrecommendations on the upcoming budget 2012-13. Thechief guest of the seminar was Khawaja Tanveer, ChiefCommissioner, FBR . The seminar speakers includedKomail Badami, Partner Badami law Associates,Muzzammil Aslam Senior economist, JS Global Capitallimited , Ali Rahim, Director Baker Tilly Mehmood IdreesQamar & Co, Adnan Mufti Partner, Shekha & MuftiChartered Accountants along with Rehan Uddin, head ofACCA Karachi. The seminar was attended by economists,employers and members from the financial fraternity.Speaking on the occasion Khawaja Tanveer, ChiefCommissioner, FBR stressed about introducing reforms inthe tax system along with broadening the tax base andsimplification in assessment and collection of taxes. In hispresentation, he compared Pakistan with other countries toidentify the areas which need improvement. Mr. RehanUddin, head of ACCA, Karachi said “Professionalaccountancy organisations have a broader role to play bysupporting the government in formulating a tax policywhich is fair and encourages economic growth anddevelopment”. he also emphasized on the formulation of asimple, transparent and equitable tax system which willincrease the level of compliance in the country. ACCAPakistan is of the view that improvement in the tax baseessentially requires elimination of all discriminationsbetween tax payers with adequate penalties for defaulters.Capital Gains arising out of immoveable property andpersonal belongings are currently not taxable. however, onthe same lines of taxing the capital gains from capitalmarket, these items may also be brought into the tax net,based on period of holding. This would mainly settle theprices of real estate, making it viable for genuine seekers ofproperty. ACCA Pakistan further proposed that enterprisezones be set up to encourage the industry specially labourintensive and technology industry. PRESS RELEASE

Two-day International marketing Conferencebegins in KarachiKARACHI: A two-day International Marketing Conferencebegan in Karachi on Saturday. Former Governor of StateBank Dr. Ishrat hussain inaugurated the conference. Themain objective of the Conference is to bring academiciansand professionals on a single platform to share theirexperiences and present cutting-edge information in thefield of marketing. Business experts from 10 countriesincluding the United States‚ United Kingdom and Germanyare taking part in the moot. PRESS RELEASE

CORPORATE CORNER

ZAID NASIR

lAST weekend lCCI (lahoreChamber of Commerce andIndustry) organized its 2ndexpo in lahore amidst

much publicity. however many peopledid not know about lCCI’s project“Made in Youngistan” which also de-buted there as well

“We organized Youngistan topromote the efforts and help facilitatethe young entreprenuers in Pakistan”said Madiha Nasrullah, the projectmanager for this event. Their defini-tion of ‘Young’? “We selected the agebracket for the participants between18 and 30 years” What was the crite-ria for selecting them? “Those thatdid not have their own outlets, mostlyrelying on online social communitiesand websites to sell and market theirproducts. We gave these stalls tothem on discounted prices since mostof the entreprenuers could not affordthe steep prices that normally go with

such exhibitions”There were about 50 stalls in

total. Majority of their productscatered to women. There were stallson cosmetics, handbags, jewelry anddesigner wear but for a few excep-tions. Moeez Javed, a student of Bea-conhouse National University startedan initiative by the name of VirginTees. For every t-shirt you buy fromhim, 43% of the retail price paid is do-nated to an NGO. “Profit margin isvery low and we market ourselvesthrough our facebook page. But peo-ple loved our designs and our cause.The response was amazing” he said.

Amongst all the garments lay astall that caught me off guard. Therestood a male quietly leaning beside abanner that read SOS for Animals. Iwent over and was greeted by DrAwais Anees, a Vetnerary who startedthis initiative to help save the stray an-imals running in the city. “Animalabuse is becoming alarmingly com-mon now. Stray dogs and cats are tor-tured, deliberately run over by cars

and left for dead. Animals should begiven the affection they deserve. It wasnot an easy task for us. I used to helpprovide shelter and medicine for thestrays in my home. But slowly we gotsupport. Now we are taking some landnear Thokar Niaz Beg to set up a clinic.We will take stray dogs and cats off thestreet, cater to their injuries, sterilizethem, give them their vaccinations andput them up for adoption” But willpeople still be willing to adopt thoseanimals? I asked. For most peoplehere owning a pet is a luxury and peo-ple take great pains to ensure a purepedigree. “From the response we got italso seems people have a big heart aswell” Awais said admitted they have along way to go. Currently, their roleover here is to spread awareness abouttheir project and garner support. “Wetell everyone who comes to our stallthat if they ever come across any in-jured, abandoned or tortured animalthey can drop it off his clinic.”

Some entrepreneurs had theirreservations, complaining about the

event being below their expecta-tions. “Our main motive was not tohelp them sell their products” saidMadiha. “Rather we wanted to provea platform for them to help show-case their efforts on a larger scale” Iasked what they should really focuson. “They should learn how to mar-ket themselves effectively” she said.“Some of the stalls here would havemade a far better display if they hadutilized their space and lightingproperly. Others did a brilliant jobof it. events like these should betaken as a learning experience. Itwill help the entrepreneurs realizewhere they are and how far theyneed to go” everyone however,agreed that there should be more ex-hibitions like these to help promotethe youth in showcasing their creativ-ity and innovation. While our direeconomy may not encourage peopleto risk their capital for such ventures,the youth have started to show re-silience against all odds and are striv-ing for a better future.

Our Youngistan

SHAuKAT ALI

AS soon the summer approaches as theelectricity demand soars since domesticconsumers switch on their fans/air con-ditioners to beat the heat. There is a need

to devise ways and means to meet the electricitydeficit which has soared upto 15 percent of the totalpeak demand of 19000 MW.

A permanent solution to the present energycrises lies in quantum addition in the generation ca-pacity. This is probably easier said than done, sincepower generation projects both capital intensive andinvolve long gestation periods. The present govern-ment has commissioned new power projects andadded about 3400 MW’s to the system. Despite in-crease in generation, it is feared that the differencebetween demand and supply would touch to a re-markable figure during this summer.

As we strive to add new capacities, we have touse the available power prudently. We have to en-sure that the wheels of industry and agriculture,which drive our economy, are provided electricity onpriority with minimum disruption to the daily rou-tine of a common man. load shedding was not un-known to the country. The present wave of poweroutages, however, surfaced on the national horizonin 2004 when demand for electricity outstrippedgeneration. The situation aggravated with the pas-sage of time. The previous ones failed to add any sig-nificant capacities to the national grid.

In order to save itself from any embarrassment,the then government initially resorted to load shed-

ding in remote areas, insulating the main urban cen-ters from load shedding. This tactics was adopted tomislead the people about the accurate power situa-tion. Realizing the gravity of the situation and theenormity of the challenge, the present governmentconvened two energy Conference, the first energysummit held in April last year and the 2nd energyConference held recently, which were presided overby the Prime Minister. The conference was also at-tended by Chief Ministers of the all the provinces, ex-perts, and representatives of the private and publicsector. The second energy Summit after reviewingthe power situation in the country approved a planto conserve energy, as part of a short term measuresto minimize the impact of shortage in power, by re-duction in demand of power. The objective of theconservation plan was to save energy where possibleand create an awareness on the need to use it pru-dently. In this connection, the conference decided toreintroduce five-day a week in all Provinces as well,closure of shops by 8.00 pm, ban on use of Air con-ditioners in government offices before 11 am, launch-ing of an awareness campaign through media toeducate the masses on the utility of conservation,staggering of industrial holidays, induction of energysaver bulbs, banning neon signs, and switching offalternate street lights. These measures are likely toresult in saving of over 1200 MW . The adage that amegawatt (MW) saved is better than a megawattMW produced was the moving spirit behind the con-servation plan. All over the world businesses andshops close early therefore early closure of busi-nesses and shops is critical to energy conservation ,as this measure alone will save over 700 MW. In eu-

rope and Middle east markets & shopping malls pulltheir shutters before dusk. The situation in our coun-try particularly the urban cities is absurd, Shop own-ers start their businesses after 11`O clock and remainawake till midnight. On top of that, shopkeepers littheir shops extravagantly. Bangladesh is also facingenergy crisis, traders and shopkeepers there use asingle bulb/light to lit their businesses. In Pakistan,the tendency is “open the shop late and close late”.Consequently, instead of utilizing daylight which isabundantly available, electricity is being wasted bykeeping businesses open after sunset.

The success of implementation of early closureof shops lies in the cooperation of traders and shop-keepers, they will have to set the trend of “open earlyand close early”. They should understand that theenergy crisis being faced by the country imposes acivic responsibility on them to lead by example andchange the present culture in keeping with interna-tional practices. Domestic and Commercial con-sumers in the country consume over 9,000 MW’s ofelectricity, a sizeable chunk of the total peak demandof 19000MW, in summers. There is ample room forsaving, if we change our lifestyles and discourage ex-travagant use of electricity. According to experts Airconditioners and home appliances consume over6000 MW’s of electricity. Furthermore, the con-sumption can be reduced by keeping AC`s thermo-stat at 26 degree centigrade.

Our industrial sector especially the Textile sectorhas carried out a comprehensive review of their en-ergy consumption patterns. They have made greatstrides in energy conservation by introducing newtechnologies. This will lead to saving in energy, cutcosts and help lower their cost of doing business.Similarly, other industrial sectors should also intro-duce and adopt technologies to reduce their con-sumptions. leaving lights and energy inefficienthome appliances on even when they are not beingused is a common practice. It is our energy-ineffi-cient lifestyles that is in many ways responsible forthe present energy crises. We have to rise above ourpersonal and vested interests to face this energycrises through a collective national effort by chang-ing our lifestyles. The nation has to clearly draw aline between necessities and luxuries.

eNeRGY CRISIS

Nation has to draw a line between necessities and luxuries

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