Proposal to CLIVAR

Shoshiro Minobe (Hokkaido University, Japan)Emanuele Di Lorenzo (Georgia Institute of Technology, USA)Mike Foreman (Institute of Ocean Science, Canada)Toshio Suga (Tohoku University, Japan)Hiroaki Saito (Tohoku National Fishery Research Institute, Japan, former IMBER SSC member)Hiroshi Ogawa (Tokyo University, Japan, IMBER SSC member)

Co-chairs of PICES WG “North Pacific Climate Variability and Change”

Hiroshi will attend IMBER SSC/CLIVAR SSG meeting in Mexico, June

Under WCRP & IGBP structure, CLIV(M)AR takes care of physical ocean

　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　physical conditions

ocean

Two directions of importance of physical ocean

　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　physical conditions

ocean

　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　Atmosphere

Air-sea interaction

　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　Marine ecosystems

Biogeochemical cycles

Processes & regions are different!

CLIVAR endorsed projects

West African Monsoon

La Plata Basin

Arctic/Subarctic Ocean Fluxes

Tropical Atlantic Climate ExperimentSouthwest

Pacific Ocean and Climate Circulation Experiment

CINDY2011/DYNAMO

C20C (AGCM)

Intra-Americas Study of Climate Processes

Almost for the tropics

Example of topic: Ocean deoxyganation

Keeling et al. (2010): “Ocean Deoxygenation in a Warming World” by two mechanisms

Smaller solubility◦ Warmer temperature leads to

smaller solubility of O2 to the ocean,.

Weakened ventilation◦ Warmer temperatures

prevent forming dense waters, resulting in weaker ventilations of thermoclines water. Old waters have smaller dissolved oxygen.

Watanabe et al. 2003

Impact of PDO relating thermocline displacement on O2

Deutsch et al. (2011 Science)

200-250 m observed dissolved oxygen off California

PDO (or more accurately winds associated with it) changes the volume of suboxic water via thermocline variations.

400 m oxygen [ mol kg-1] WOA05

Oxygen minimum zone

Example of topic: Ocean acidification

IPCC-AR4

As a direct consequence of ocean’s absorption of CO2, pH (-log10(H+)) of ocean reduces.

pH has decreased by 0.1 (30% increase of H+ ion) from pre-industrial era, and is decreasing at 0.02/decade.

Accompanied reduction of saturation level of carbonate calcium, i.e., aragonite used by coral etc. and calcite.

Acidification impacts

Doney et al. 2009 Ann. Rev. Mar. Sci.

Upwelling of corrosive acidified water

Feely et al. 2008 Science

Physical processes, such as upwelling, water mass formation, advections are important in ocean acidification especially at depth.

Example of topic: Ocean Oligotrophication

nutrient

nutrient

Current condition

Future heated world

warm & light

cold & heavy

warmer & lighter

cold & heavy

Vertical mixing

weakened Vertical mixing

Near surface reductio

n

Implications: Reduced primary production Weakened CO2 absorption Impacts on marine ecosystems

up

down

How vertical mixing occurs are not well known.

Meso & submeso-scale impacts on primary production

Resplandy et al. 2009 GBC

Wide Swath Altimetry: SWOT

Benitez-Nelson et al. (2007 Science)

perpendicular velocity

Total Chlorophyll a

1% light level

We do not know much about how meso- and submeso-scales contribute to nutrient supply.

Meso-scale eddy off Hawaii Island.

Two directions of importance of physical ocean

　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　physical conditions

ocean

　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　Atmosphere

Air-sea interaction

　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　Marine ecosystems

Biogeochemical cycles

Processes & regions are different!Need to widen the scope of CLIMAR

CLIV

AR

CLIM

AR

Otherwise CLIVAR may loose the leadership of physical oceanography studies.

IMB

ER

Important oceanic physical processes

For the on-going changes of green ocean, a number of physical processes are important:◦ocean vertical and horizontal mixing

associated with the mixed layer; horizontal and vertical advection due to sub-mesoscale and meso-scale phenomena; the transports of jets, striations and currents; water mass formation and ventilation; and air-sea interaction over SST fronts and eddies

Recommendation/proposal Therefore, we strongly recommend that in

their future endeavors CLIVAR, or CLIMAR, assign appropriate weights to the understanding of physical processes that influence the biogeochemical cycles and marine ecosystems.

For example, “variability and change of physical processes of the global oceans impacting on biogeochemical cycles and marine ecosystems” could be one of main themes for these programs, and could be studied by using field observations, data analysis and numerical modelings.

FUTURE collaborationsFor the aforementioned theme (not air-

sea interaction), PICES especially its WG29 (regional climate model) and WG27 can contribute.

PICES Working Group 27: North Pacific Climate Variability and ChangeChair, CLIVAR PP member

Japan: Shoshiro Minobe, Shin-ichi Ito, Takashi Mochizuki, Bunmei TaguchiUSA: Emanuele Di Lorenzo, Enrique N. Curchitser, Steven J. Bograd, Takamitsu ItoCanada: Michael G. Foreman, Patrick F. Cummins, Korea: Soon-Il An, Sangwook Yeh, Chan Joo JangChina: Lixin Wu, Xiaopei Lin, Guimei LiuRussia: Tatyana Pavlova, Elena I. Ustinova, Yury I. Zuenko

If you are happy with this direction.After proper revising, we can

send a proposal to CLIVAR SSG in time for the CLIVAR SSG/IMBER SSC meeting.

Oxygen reduction in Cal-COFI region from 1984-2006 (Bograd et al. 2008)

Large uncertainty in future

Keeling et al. (2010) “Ocean Deoxygenation in a Warming World”

The results are three times different even for the same scenario!

Stramma et al. 2008 Science

Oxygen Minimum ZonesExpands

Enhanced stratification leads to smaller primary production?

Behrenfeld et al (2006 Nature)

Physical environments

Physical processes, such as upwelling, water mass formation, advections are important for ocean acidification at depth.

Feely et al. 2008 Science

Large uncertainty for future

Keeling et al. (2010) “Ocean Deoxygenation in a Warming World”

Three times different for the same senario.