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2019 Guidance www.bayan.com.sg
2019 Guidance www.bayan.com.sg
1
Executive Summary
The Group continues to expand its production and sales volumes on the back
of the successful expansion achieved in 2018.
Total production is Budgeted to be in the range of 32 to 36 million MT with sales anticipated to be in the range of 33 to 37 million MT.
ASP is anticipated to drop to be in the range of US$ 46-48/MT based on the benchmark reference price (NEWCASTLE) being on average US$ 90/MT for 2019.
Revenue forecast to be between USD 1.5 billion to USD 1.8 billion.
Cash costs anticipated to be in the range of US$ 32-34/MT (include COGS, Royalties and SGA).
EBITDA forecast to be between USD 400 million to USD 600 million.
Capex is Budgeted to be in the range of US$ 100 to 130 million.
www.bayan.com.sg
Overburden Removal Volume (OB)
Overburden Removal
(million BCM)
(million BCM)
2
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FY19 Overburden Removal volume is
Budgeted to increase principally due to the
increased production at Tabang and the
mine developing such that the stripping
ratio has increased.
96
41 33
85
139
160 - 180
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018D 2019B
Quarterly Overburden Removal
2018D
Gunungbayan Pratamacoal - Block II 6
Perkasa Inakakerta 10
Teguh Sinarabadi / Firman Ketaun Perkasa 48
Tabang Concessions 60
Wahana Baratama Mining 15
Total 139
(in million BCM)
21 to 25
160 to 180
2019B
OB
4 to 8
7 to 11
42 to 46
86 to 90
37-42 39-44 43-48 41-46
1Q19B 2Q19B 3Q19B 4Q19B
D : Draft figures which are unaudited figures
Coal Production
Coal Production
(million MT)
(million MT)
3
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FY19 Production Volume is anticipated to
increase primarily due to the increase in
production at Tabang as BUMA
commences its first full year of operations
at Tabang.
Quarterly Coal Production
8 - 9 8 - 9 8 - 9 8 - 9
1Q19B 2Q19B 3Q19B 4Q19B
2018D
Gunungbayan Pratamacoal - Block II 0.5
Perkasa Inakakerta 1.2
Teguh Sinarabadi / Firman Ketaun Perkasa 3.6
Tabang Concessions 24.8
Wahana Baratama Mining 1.2
Total 31
26.6 to 29.3
0.3 to 0.5
0.9 to 1.2
3.0 to 3.4
1.2 to 1.6
(in million MT)
32 to 36
2019B
Coal Production
10 11 10
21
31
32 - 36
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018D 2019B
D : Draft figures which are unaudited figures
Weighted Average Strip Ratio (SR)
Weighted Average Strip Ratio
4
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FY19 Weighted Average Strip Ratio is
Budgeted to increase slightly, primarily
due to higher stripping ratios at Tabang as
the mine starts to develop operations to
be more in line with its Life of Mine
stripping ratio.
10.0
3.8 3.4 4.1 4.5 4.5 – 5.0
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018D 2019B
4.5 – 5.0 4.5 – 5.0 4.5 – 5.0 4.5 – 5.0
1Q19B 2Q19B 3Q19B 4Q19B
2018D
Gunungbayan Pratamacoal - Block II 12.7
Perkasa Inakakerta 7.5
Teguh Sinarabadi / Firman Ketaun Perkasa 13.5
Tabang Concessions 2.5
Wahana Baratama Mining 12.6
Total 4.5 4.5 to 5.0
2019B
Weighted Average SR
14.0 to 15.0
7.5 to 8.5
13.0 to 14.0
2.8 to 3.5
15.0 to 16.0
Weighted Average SR (:1)
Quarterly Weighted Average SR
D : Draft figures which are unaudited figures
Cash Costs
(US$ / MT)
Average Cash Costs per MT(*) Sing Gas Oil Price(*)
(US$ / liter)
FY19 Average Cash Costs are anticipated to be in the region of US$ 32 to
34/ MT.
5
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*(1) Average cash costs include barging, royalty, and SGA
65
43
30 32 33 32 - 34
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018D 2019B
0.8
0.5
0.3
0.6 0.6 0.6
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018D 2019B* Published by Engie Singapore, including PBBKB and VAT
D : Draft figures which are unaudited figures
Cash Costs
(US$ / MT)
Cash Cost per Expense – 2018D (*) Cash Cost per Expense – 2019B
5
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Overburden and Mining, 37%
Transportation, 29%
Royalty, 9%
Employee Cost, 5%
Other Costs, 12%
Coal Purchase, 8%
D : Draft figures which are unaudited figures
(US$ / MT)
Overburden and Mining,
37%
Transportation, 27%
Royalty, 13%
Employee Cost, 5%
Other Costs, 9%
Coal Purchase, 9%
Coal Sales
Coal Sales Volume
(million MT)
(million MT)
Quarterly Coal Sales
Geographic Distribution – 2018D
6
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Japan
12 9
13
21
28
33 - 37
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018D 2019B
8 - 9
9 – 10
7 – 8
9 – 10
1Q19B 2Q19B 3Q19B 4Q19B
D : Draft figures which are unaudited figures
FY19 Budgeted Sales Volume is
anticipated to be in the range of 33 to
37 million MT.
China, 11%
India, 19%
Indonesia, 19% Philippines,
16%
Korea,
15%
Malaysia,
11%
Others, 9%
Average Selling Price (ASP)
Quarterly Average Selling Price(*1)
7
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FY19 ASP is anticipated to be in the region of US$ 46 to 48/MT;
Based on the benchmark reference price (NEWCASTLE) being on
average US$ 90/MT in 2019 and with a continued weak market in the CV
4,200 GAR kcal/kg segment.
* (1) ASP includes coal and non-coal sales
(2) D : Draft figures which are unaudited figures
(US$ / MT)
45 - 48 45 - 48 45 – 48 45 – 48
1Q19B 2Q19B 3Q19B 4Q19B
70
52 43 53 59
46 - 48
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018D 2019B
Average Selling Price(*1,2)
Committed and Contracted Sales (2019)
As at end December 2018 committed and contracted sales were 26.5 million MT for 2019 with an average CV of 4,540 GAR kcal/kg.
2019 Fixed Price element with an
average CV of 4,428 GAR kcal/kg of US$ 41.2/MT.
Additional sales will be made as
progressive production targets are met throughout the year
8
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40%
60%
26.5 million MT
Fixed Price Floating Price
2019
Capital Expenditure (2019)
(US$ million)
2019 CAPEX
9
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Anticipated spend principally due to
progress on new 100KM Coal Haul
Road to Mahakam and Port Facilities.
Major other projects including:
• Asphalting and Upgrade of
existing 69KM Senyiur Coal Haul
Road.
• BCT Upgrade.
• Road Diversion at TSA/FKP.
• Completion of Barge loader 3 and
side dump 5 at Senyiur jetty
(Tabang).
100-130
Buildings & Infrastructure
Equipment and Machinery
Office Equipment Transportation Equipment
Tabang
Pakar
Mamahak
Appendix
10
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PT Perkasa Inakakerta PIK
PT Teguh Sinarabadi TSA
PT Firman Ketaun Perkasa FKP
PT Wahana Baratama Mining WBM
PT Fajar Sakti Prima FSP
PT Bara Tabang BT
PT Brian Anjat Sentosa BAS
PT Tanur Jaya TJ
PT Silau Kencana SK
PT Orkida Makmur OM
PT Tiwa Abadi TA
PT Sumber Api SA
PT Dermaga Energi DE
PT Bara Sejati BS
PT Apira Utama AU
PT Cahaya Alam CA
PT Mamahak Coal Mining MCM
PT Bara Karsa Lestari BKL
PT Mahakam Energi Lestari MEL
PT Mahakam Bara Energi MBE
Appendix
11
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Kangaroo Resources Limited KRL
PT Dermaga Perkasapratama DPP
PT Indonesia Pratama IP
PT Muji Lines Muji
PT Bayan Energy BE
PT Metalindo Prosestama MP
PT Sumber Aset Utama SAU
PT Karsa Optima Jaya KOJ
Disclaimer
12
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This presentation contains forward-looking statements based on assumptions and forecasts made by PT. Bayan Resources Tbk management. Statements that are not historical facts, including statements about our beliefs and expectations, are forward-looking statements. These statements are based on current plans, estimates and projections, and speak only as of the date they are made. We undertake no obligation to update any of them in light of new information or future events.
These forward-looking statements involve inherent risks and are subject to a number of uncertainties, including trends in demand and prices for coal generally and for our products in particular, the success of our mining activities, both alone and with our partners, the changes in coal industry regulation, the availability of funds for planned expansion efforts, as well as other factors. We caution you that these and a number of other known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors could cause actual future results or outcomes to differ materially from those expressed in any forward-looking statement.
Thank You
For more information, please contact :
www.bayan.com.sg