Public OpinionPublic Opinion

What is What is public opinionpublic opinion??►““To speak with precisionTo speak with precision of public of public

opinion is a task not unlike coming to opinion is a task not unlike coming to grips with the Holy Ghostgrips with the Holy Ghost”” –VO Key Jr. –VO Key Jr.

►Attitudes, perceptions, and views Attitudes, perceptions, and views individuals hold about politics and individuals hold about politics and govt.govt.

►Willing to share, Willing to share, common concernscommon concerns►how much goes into making how much goes into making policypolicy??

What makes it so confusing?What makes it so confusing?►Only attracts the attention of someOnly attracts the attention of some►Many times Many times nono majority opinion majority opinion►PluralistPluralist:: often prevails- govt. responds often prevails- govt. responds

to the view of intense minorityto the view of intense minority►ElitistElitist:: other issues that are obscure. other issues that are obscure.

ex: US relations with Madagascar?ex: US relations with Madagascar?►MajorityMajority (mass): (mass): few, broad, all- few, broad, all-

concerning issues- social securityconcerning issues- social security►AttentiveAttentive:: those with an active interest those with an active interest

Ways to express public Ways to express public opinionopinion

►Voting Voting ►Protest demonstrationProtest demonstration►Letter-writingLetter-writing►Television commercialsTelevision commercials►LobbyistsLobbyists►E-mailE-mail►Think of one more!Think of one more!

The debate onThe debate on

►How much should it really play in How much should it really play in public policy?public policy?

►Madison: Madison: popular opinion vs. public popular opinion vs. public o.o.

►““Momentary passions are not govt. Momentary passions are not govt. concern, represent only concern, represent only ““true true interestsinterests””

►Jackson and Progressive movementsJackson and Progressive movements►George Gallup (the George Gallup (the Gallup pollGallup poll): ): anyany

opinion held by citizens should be opinion held by citizens should be taken into accounttaken into account

George GallupGeorge Gallup

Quickly try to predict the margin of error!

How informed are the How informed are the people?people?

►KosovoKosovo►JaywalkingJaywalking►The news?The news?

Thinking stick: Are Americans informed enough to make governing decisions? Should there be prerequisites?

Types of Opinions:Types of Opinions:►StableStable:: change very little (death change very little (death

penalty)penalty)►FluidFluid:: change frequently change frequently

(popularity)(popularity)►LatentLatent:: dormant, but may be dormant, but may be

aroused (the draft)aroused (the draft)►IntenseIntense:: (abortion?) (abortion?)►Non-intensive: Non-intensive: ►SalientSalient: : personal importance to personal importance to

some (Brady Bill)some (Brady Bill) CP Skip!

Types of Opinions:Types of Opinions:

►ConsensusConsensus: : shared by 75% people shared by 75% people (balanced budget)(balanced budget)

►PolarizedPolarized: : shared by LESS than shared by LESS than 75% (serious gun control)75% (serious gun control)

Polarized opinion: America should outlaw weapons!

The value of opinion pollsThe value of opinion polls

Measuring Public Opinion: Measuring Public Opinion: PollsPolls

►Straw PollsStraw Polls are inaccurate are inaccurate►Elections donElections don’’t tell why t tell why ►Scientific pollsScientific polls are the best! are the best!►Construction: Construction:

- - definition of universedefinition of universe- Accurate selection of sample (1000)Accurate selection of sample (1000)- Writing the questionWriting the question- Selection or means of pollingSelection or means of polling

What might be some problems with What might be some problems with polls?polls?

►Sampling error (3%, Gallup Sampling error (3%, Gallup amazing!)amazing!)

►Probability sampleProbability sample►WordingWording►Election night projections through Election night projections through

““exit pollsexit polls”” Horse-race journalism!

Can you see how “wording” of questions can be manipulative?

Exit Poll IssuesExit Poll Issues►““Horse RaceHorse Race”” mentality mentality►Pandering to whims of publicPandering to whims of public►Early projection can Early projection can discourage discourage

turnout turnout in the in the WestWest and flawed and flawed data (Florida!)data (Florida!)

Hand-countsIn Florida: 2000

1992: So many polls lead to voter apathy.Clinton was projected way in lead! Perot?