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Public Opinion and Political Socialization 1
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Trace the development of modern public opinion research
Describe the methods for conducting and analyzing different types of public opinion polls
10.1
10.2
Learning Objectives 10
Assess the potential shortcomings of polling
Analyze the process by which people form political opinions
10.3
10.4
Learning Objectives 10
Evaluate the effects of public opinion on politics10.5
Learning Objectives 10
Roots of Public Opinion Research
The Earliest Public Opinion Research
The Gallup Organization
The National Election Studies
10.1
The Earliest Public Opinion Research
Polling to predict winner of elections
Polling to discover public opinions Walter Lippmann’s Public Opinion
Literary Digest Straw poll Sample
10.1
Is polling always accurate? 10.1
FIGURE 10.1: How successful has the Gallup Poll been?
10.1
a. Survey
b. Straw poll
c. Sample
d. Registered voters
10.1 Which term describes the people who are polled?
10.1
a. Survey
b. Straw poll
c. Sample
d. Registered voters
10.1 Which term describes the people who are polled?
10.1
Conducting and Analyzing Public Opinion Polls
Designing the Survey and Sample Contacting Respondents Analyzing the Data
10.2
Designing the Survey and Sample
Determining the content and phrasing of the questions Wording is crucial “Push polls”
Selecting the sample Population Random sampling Stratified sampling
10.2
Contacting Respondents
Telephone polls Random digit dialing survey What’s the 21st Century issue with this?
10.2
How are polls conducted? 10.2
Contacting Respondents
Telephone polls Tracking polls
10.2
FIGURE 10.2: What does a daily tracking poll look like?
10.2
Contacting Respondents
In-person interviews Exit polls
Internet polls Scientific polls versus unscientific Web polls
10.2
Analyzing the Data
Reveals implications for public policy and political campaigns
Data analyzed by computers Subgroups of population, such as men versus women,
age groups, or political ideology, may be analyzed
Reporting the data News organizations or campaigns
10.2
a. Push poll
b. Straw poll
c. Tracking poll
d. Stratified sampling
10.2 Which type of poll is designed to give a skewed result?
10.2
a. Push poll
b. Straw poll
c. Tracking poll
d. Stratified sampling
10.2 Which type of poll is designed to give a skewed result?
10.2
Shortcomings of Polling
Survey Error Limited Response Options Lack of Information Difficulty in Measuring Intensity Lack of Interest in Political Issues
10.3
Survey Error
Margin of error Natural errors in statistical measurement
Sampling error Happens when a pollster draws an improper sample
10.3
Limited Response Option
Yes/No (Approve/Disapprove) May not give respondents sufficient room to answer
“Feeling thermometer” Respondents rate feelings 0-100
10.3
Can polls measure intensity of opinion?
10.3
Lack of Interest in Political Issues
Many people lack an opinion on certain policies Policies that don’t affect people directly Policies that don’t involve moral values
Foreign policy Less likely to generate interest
Domestic policy More likely to generate interest
10.3
10.3 Which of these can be a problem in designing, executing, or analyzing the results of a poll?
10.3
a. Lack of interest in political issues
b. Difficulty in measuring intensity
c. Limited response options
d. Survey error
e. All of the above
a. Lack of interest in political issues
b. Difficulty in measuring intensity
c. Limited response options
d. Survey error
e. All of the above
10.3 Which of these can be a problem in designing, executing, or analyzing the results of a poll?
10.3
Forming Political Opinions
Demographic Characteristics Family, Peers, and School The Mass Media Cues from Leaders or Opinion Makers Political Knowledge
10.4
Demographic Characteristics
Gender Women historically more liberal than men
10.4
TABLE 10.1: Do men and women think differently about political issues?
10.4
Demographic Characteristics
Race and ethnicity Differences among and within races and ethnicities
Age affects political socialization Religion shapes political beliefs
10.4
Family, Peers, and School
Family influence Children learn political beliefs at early age
Peers are influential in middle or high school
Political socialization in school
10.4
How do you encourage young women to think about careers in politics?
10.4
FIGURE 10.3: What are the ideological identifications of first-year college students?
10.4
The Mass Media
Traditional news sources Americans are turning away from them
Nontraditional news media Talk radio, online magazines, blogs
Cable and Internet Often skewed
10.4
Cues from Leaders or Opinion Makers
Political leaders use media to influence public
President uses media as a bully pulpit
10.4
Political Knowledge
Political knowledge and political participation Have a reciprocal effect on each other
Americans’ level of civic knowledge Lower than 50 years ago
10.4
TABLE 10.2: What is the extent of Americans’ political knowledge?
10.4
Political Knowledge
Gender gap Also affected by education, number of children, and
marital status
10.4
a. Communication and receptivity
b. Public education
c. Political socialization
d. Civic knowledge
10.4 The process by which individuals develop their political views is called:
10.4
10.4 The process by which individuals develop their political views is called:
10.4
a. Communication and receptivity
b. Public education
c. Political socialization
d. Civic knowledge
Toward Reform: The Effects of Public Opinion on Politics Public has become more of a critical
player in national and international politics
Polling a key part of that involvement
10.5
10.5 The influence of public opinion in politics has increased over the past 30 years due largely to:
10.5
a. The increase in Americans’ civic knowledge
b. The increase in alternative political news
sources
c. The increase in the number of polls
d. The decrease in traditional mass media
10.5 The influence of public opinion in politics has increased over the past 30 years due largely to:
10.5
a. The increase in Americans’ civic knowledge
b. The increase in alternative political news
sources
c. The increase in the number of polls
d. The decrease in traditional mass media
Discussion Questions
What role do polls play in policy making? Should public opinion be considered when the government makes policy decisions? How much influence should public opinion have?
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Video: So What?
http://media.pearsoncmg.com/ph/hss/SSA_SHARED_MEDIA_1/polisci/presidency/OConner_Ch10_Public_Opinion_Seg6_v2.html
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