Public Opinion and Public Opinion and Political SocializationPolitical Socialization

Three Broad Classes

• Inputs– Culture– Information– Public Opinion

• Institutions– Branches of Government– Parties/Interest Groups– Rules of the game

• Outputs– Policies– Conditions– Outcomes

Inputs Institutions Policies

Public OpinionPublic Opinion

What the public thinks about a particular What the public thinks about a particular issue or set of issues at some point in issue or set of issues at some point in time. time.

V.O Key- any attitudes the public has that V.O Key- any attitudes the public has that the government would be wise to heedthe government would be wise to heed

Opinions held by the public that may have Opinions held by the public that may have an impact on the political processan impact on the political process

Public OpinionPublic Opinion

Attitudes towards specific issues/policiesAttitudes towards specific issues/policies E.g. War in Iraq, social security reformE.g. War in Iraq, social security reform

Attitudes about state of the nationAttitudes about state of the nation E.g. Important problems, state of the economyE.g. Important problems, state of the economy

Attitudes towards officeholdersAttitudes towards officeholders Presidential approvalPresidential approval

Attitudes towards the governmentAttitudes towards the government

Attitudes towards specific groupsAttitudes towards specific groups

Public OpinionPublic Opinion

Individual and collective propertyIndividual and collective property

2 key elements2 key elements Attitude directionAttitude direction Salience/importanceSalience/importance

A function of both long and short term A function of both long and short term factorsfactors

IdeologyIdeology

Fairly consistent set of ideasFairly consistent set of ideas

Interrelation between more specific attitudesInterrelation between more specific attitudes

Only Some people think “ideologically”Only Some people think “ideologically” More knowledgeableMore knowledgeable More involvedMore involved

Liberal-ConservativeLiberal-Conservative

~20% Conservative~20% Conservative

~30% Liberal~30% Liberal

~50% Moderate~50% Moderate

IdeologyIdeology

What distinguishes ideology?What distinguishes ideology?

Attitude towards government Attitude towards government intervention/individual libertyintervention/individual liberty

Attitude towards change/pastAttitude towards change/past

Attitudes towards social conventions?Attitudes towards social conventions?

Public OpinionPublic Opinion

Stable/Malleable?Stable/Malleable?The wonder is that they (the people) so The wonder is that they (the people) so seldom err as they do; beset as they seldom err as they do; beset as they continually are by the wiles of parasites continually are by the wiles of parasites and sycophants, by the snares of the and sycophants, by the snares of the ambitious, the avaricious, the desperate” ambitious, the avaricious, the desperate” Hamilton Federalist 71Hamilton Federalist 71

Madison and demagoguesMadison and demagoguesEvidence for some of eachEvidence for some of each

Political SocializationPolitical Socialization

Learning process by which people acquire Learning process by which people acquire their political ideas and valuestheir political ideas and values

Ecology->Culture->Socialization-Ecology->Culture->Socialization->Personality->Behavior (Triandis 1994)>Personality->Behavior (Triandis 1994)

Social Learning TheorySocial Learning Theory

American Political Culture(s)American Political Culture(s)

Some commonalitiesSome commonalities

ElazarElazar

3 Sub Cultures3 Sub Cultures IndividualisticIndividualistic MoralisticMoralistic TraditionalisticTraditionalistic

Agents of Political SocializationAgents of Political Socialization

The FamilyThe Family

EducationEducation

RaceRace

ReligionReligion

ClassClass

Peer groupsPeer groups

Long term influenceLong term influence

ValuesValues

Somewhat corrupted termSomewhat corrupted term

EqualityEquality

ToleranceTolerance

FreedomFreedom

Protestant work ethic/deservingnessProtestant work ethic/deservingness

Meritocracy Meritocracy

Which values in which situations?Which values in which situations?

What Moves Public Opinion?What Moves Public Opinion?

Real world events (wars, economic Real world events (wars, economic factors, various salient issues)factors, various salient issues)

Elite DiscussionElite Discussion

Politics (Campaigns, speeches, etc)Politics (Campaigns, speeches, etc)

The MediaThe Media

Public opinion itselfPublic opinion itself

Real World EventsReal World Events

Many Factors Many Factors influence presidential influence presidential ApprovalApproval

Here- Uptick around Here- Uptick around start of warstart of war

As war progresses, As war progresses, decreased support.decreased support.

Elite DiscourseElite Discourse

Can Move Public OpinionCan Move Public Opinion

Only effective when elites have one Only effective when elites have one messagemessage

When Multiple Messages, citizens fall When Multiple Messages, citizens fall back to original opinionsback to original opinions

Elite DiscourseElite Discourse

E.g. VietnamE.g. Vietnam

Early- Most Elites Support WarEarly- Most Elites Support War More Media exposure-> More supportMore Media exposure-> More support MainstreamingMainstreaming

Late- Divided Elite OpinionLate- Divided Elite Opinion Some Hawks, some DovesSome Hawks, some Doves Opinion Depends on previousOpinion Depends on previous PolarizationPolarization

Public Opinion Itself Public Opinion Itself

Public opinion widely reportedPublic opinion widely reported

May cause people to change mindMay cause people to change mind Bandwagon effectBandwagon effect Reconsider reasonsReconsider reasons

Example- Health care 1994Example- Health care 1994 Large majority of Americans satisfied with Large majority of Americans satisfied with

own healthcareown healthcare Large majority think most people get bad careLarge majority think most people get bad care

Measuring Public OpinionMeasuring Public Opinion

PollingPolling

Telephone SurveysTelephone Surveys

Relatively Small SamplesRelatively Small Samples

Random AssignmentRandom Assignment

Margin of errorMargin of error

Types of PollsTypes of Polls

TelephoneTelephone

In PersonIn Person

Exit PollExit Poll

Tracking PollTracking Poll

Shortcomings of PollsShortcomings of Polls

Accuracy?Accuracy?

Social DesirabilitySocial Desirability

Question wordingQuestion wording

Declining Response ratesDeclining Response rates

The Ugly- Literary Digest PollThe Ugly- Literary Digest Poll

1936 Election1936 Election

Over 1 Million RespondentsOver 1 Million Respondents

Predicts Alf Landon WinPredicts Alf Landon Win

Problem- Selecting ParticipantsProblem- Selecting Participants

Problem- Low response rateProblem- Low response rate

Problem- Too far in advance of electionProblem- Too far in advance of election

Polling and DemocracyPolling and Democracy

Verba- Allows voices to be heard that Verba- Allows voices to be heard that would not otherwisewould not otherwise

Allows greater detail on wishes of public Allows greater detail on wishes of public than elections would. than elections would.

Dryzek- Empowers status quoDryzek- Empowers status quo

Does not allow spontaneous expression of Does not allow spontaneous expression of opinionopinion

The Uses Of PollsThe Uses Of Polls

The mediaThe media

Election ForecastingElection Forecasting

By the publicBy the public

By politiciansBy politicians To inform policyTo inform policy To sell policyTo sell policy

By Interest groupsBy Interest groups

Public Opinion and Public Opinion and RepresentationRepresentation

Large shifts in opinion -> changes in policyLarge shifts in opinion -> changes in policy

District level Congruence in some policy District level Congruence in some policy domainsdomains Strongest in states with referendumStrongest in states with referendum

Public Opinion and Public Opinion and RepresentationRepresentation

Can reign in lobbyistsCan reign in lobbyistsWhen is public opinion influential?When is public opinion influential?When it sends a clear messageWhen it sends a clear messageWhen it moves dramaticallyWhen it moves dramaticallyWhen Issue is SalientWhen Issue is SalientLimitsLimitsNot all issues salientNot all issues salientPublic opinion shiftsPublic opinion shifts

Public Opinion and ElectionsPublic Opinion and Elections

Surveys allow for forecastingSurveys allow for forecasting

Can enable strategic votingCan enable strategic voting

Large impact on fundraisingLarge impact on fundraising

Horse race coverageHorse race coverage

Presidential ApprovalPresidential Approval

““Do you generally approve of the way Do you generally approve of the way ________ is handling his job as ________ is handling his job as president?”president?”

Important resourceImportant resource

Increased Bargaining PowerIncreased Bargaining Power

More successful with congressMore successful with congress

Success brings successSuccess brings success

Presidential ApprovalPresidential Approval

Character vs. Character vs. CompetenceCompetence

The case of Bill The case of Bill ClintonClinton

The case of Jimmy The case of Jimmy CarterCarter

Competence trumpsCompetence trumps

Figure 1: Presidential Honesty and Job Approval 1993-1999

0

20

40

60

80

1 2 3 4 5 6 7

Year

Per

cen

t Y

es Job Approval

Honest andTrustw orthy

Sources of Approval (or lack Sources of Approval (or lack thereof)thereof)

The economyThe economy Both current performance and expectationsBoth current performance and expectations Economy as a whole more important than personalEconomy as a whole more important than personal

Presidential “drama”Presidential “drama”

War/foreign policyWar/foreign policy

Media CoverageMedia Coverage

PrimingPriming Focusing attention on particular areas Focusing attention on particular areas Can help or hurt overall approvalCan help or hurt overall approval

Political TrustPolitical Trust

Most of the time, can you trust government Most of the time, can you trust government to do the right thing?to do the right thing?Trend- Generally decreasingTrend- Generally decreasingSimilar trend for other institutions as wellSimilar trend for other institutions as wellSources?Sources?Policy DissatisfactionPolicy DissatisfactionIncreasing gap between promises/resultsIncreasing gap between promises/resultsPolitical Scandal/MediaPolitical Scandal/Media

Political TrustPolitical Trust

ConsequencesConsequences

Decreased Turnout?Decreased Turnout?

Electoral ChoiceElectoral Choice Benefits 3Benefits 3rdrd party candidates and challengers party candidates and challengers

StabilityStability

ToleranceTolerance

A willingness to tolerate the presence of A willingness to tolerate the presence of ideas that you do not agree withideas that you do not agree withStouffer 1955Stouffer 195580-90% of respondents support abstract 80-90% of respondents support abstract libertiesliberties30-35% support applications of those 30-35% support applications of those libertieslibertiesThe more educated more likely to be The more educated more likely to be toleranttolerant

ToleranceTolerance

More recent workMore recent work

Gap between abstract and appliedGap between abstract and applied

Gap between educated and not?Gap between educated and not?

Different groups-> different resultsDifferent groups-> different results

When allowed to pick groups they don’t When allowed to pick groups they don’t like, more educated nearly as intolerantlike, more educated nearly as intolerant

Americans not much more tolerant than in Americans not much more tolerant than in the 50s?the 50s?