Public Opinion and Polling American Government Bowling Green High School

Public Opinion and Polling

American GovernmentBowling Green High School

What is Public Opinion?

It is the collection of individual opinions toward issues or objects of general interest to a significant number of people.

Characteristics of Public Opinion

DirectionFavor or oppose?

IntensityHow strong is your opinion?

StabilityDoes your opinion change over time? (How stable is it?)

LatencyHow well formed are your opinions?

CentralityHow important is this issue to you?

Group differences in public opinion

AgeGenderRaceReligionEducationChurch AttendanceMarital StatusPolitical PartyIdeology

What influences opinion?

Internal (Personal)AgeGenderRaceReligious Beliefs

External FamilyPeersSchoolEventsMedia

What do Americans know about Politics?

Consider a Classic Citizen:An individual who is highly politically informed,

active, and engaged.

Public opinion in the U.S. is usually characterized as:UninformedUnstableUnconnected


National Polls:20% could name two 1st Amendment Rights (2003)25% knew the length of Senator’s term (2003)76% knew which party controls House (2007)37% knew U.S. has lower taxes than Europe (2003)37% chief justice is conservative (2007)


2004 NES: Ideology Placement of Candidates5.5% replied that GW Bush was Extremely

Liberal

2.5% replied that John Kerry was Extremely Conservative

4% replied that Ralph Nader was Extremely Conservative

What do Americans know?

How do we get info about Public Opinion?

VotingFocus Groups (10-25 people)Contacting LegislatorsIn-Depth InterviewsExperimentsSampling (Polling)

Tool of Choice…

What did the polls say right before the election?

Election Tracker: Candidate Polling - Election Center 2008 from CNN.com

Polling

Good to have a sample (subgroup of the population) of 900-1200 people.

It’s a snapshot in timeCan be used to collect info or persuade

people to change candidates.

Why Are Surveys Sometimes Wrong?

Some are not “wrong,” just too close to call (within margin of error).

Some came down to a question of sampling (perhaps it wasn’t random or representative.

This happens frequently – famously: Dewey / Truman 1948Literary Digest 1936

The Purpose of Sampling:

The elements of the sample need to accurately portray the elements of the population.

In other words, we want to get as close as possible to the truth, where the truth is usually unknown.

We want to do as little work (and expend as few resources) as possible.

Foundations of Scientific Polling

Probability Sampling: the method by which you draw the sample of the population, the group you are going to question for the poll.

resemble the larger population to the greatest extent possible.

everyone in the population should have the same probability of being selected for the poll.

Probability Samples

Cluster Sample: Often used for surveys of geographical areas. Example:

Start with a list of counties in Missouri. Randomly sample ten counties. List all towns in those ten counties. Randomly sample towns. List blocks in towns. Randomly sample blocks. Interview houses on those blocks.

Relationship Between Sample Size & Margin of Error

Margin of Error:Range around a sample statistic within which the population parameter is likely to fall.

Assuming a normal sampling distribution:Sample Size Margin of Error100 +/- 11%400 +/- 6%1000 +/- 4%1500 +/- 3%4000 +/- 2%


Example:50% of Americans approve of the way President Bush is handling his job as president (with a margin of error of +/- 4%).

We can conclude that: The sample has 1000 people. That the range of approval is 46-54%.


Example:23% of Americans approve of the way President Bush is handling the Iraq War (with a margin of error of +/- 3%).

We can conclude that: The sample has 1500 people. That the range of approval is 20-26%.

Critics…

Some are skeptical as to how representative a sample can really be of the real population, but it is statistically proved.

Let’s see an mini example…

© 2007 Mars, Incorporated and its Affiliates. All Rights Reserved.

What colors comein your bag?

Types of Surveys

Face-to-face (in-person interview)

Telephone

Self-administered Mail

Internet

Face-to-Face Surveys

Pros: Better quality & richness of responses More completed surveys Higher response rates

Cons: COST!!!! Variance across interviewers Takes great amount of time to administer

Telephone Surveys

Pros: Cheap Easy to administer Higher uniformity among interviewersLess intrusive to respondents

Cons: Lower response rates Lower quality of responses

Higher non-response More acquiescing More socially-desirable responses

Self-Administered Mail Surveys

Pros: Cheap No interviewer bias Respondents can do it when they choose Best at getting at illicit or illegal behavior

Cons Very low response rate Don’t know who is responding

Internet Surveys

Pros Potentially cheap Potentially respondents Easier data collection

Cons Limited access Often non-random sample Multiple entries Self-selection

Survey Design: Questions

Question Wording: Loaded QuestionsOften found in polls done by interest groups, who

are pushing a certain agenda.

4 kinds of loaded questions:CompoundAmbiguousDouble negativeLeading

Question Wording: Loaded Questions

Compound Questions: A question that actually asks two questions, but the

respondent can only give one answer. Compound Questions:

Examples – “Do you still beat your wife?”“Do you still do illegal drugs?”“Do you think that Americans realize how widespread the AIDS

epidemic has become, and that the worst is still to come?”“Do you believe that abortion is murder and that all abortion

providers should be punished with the death penalty?

Better version – break into two questions

Question Wording: Loaded QuestionsAmbiguous Questions:

Question is vague or difficult to exactly interpret. Very common problem.

Examples –“How many children do you have?”

“What is your income?”

“Have you taken a vacation in the past few years?”

Question Wording: Loaded QuestionsAmbiguous Questions:

Better Versions –“How many children do you have currently living with

you?”

“What is your annual gross salary?”

“Have you taken a vacation in the past three years outside of your city?”

Question Wording: Loaded QuestionsDouble Negative Questions:

Questions that employ two negatives to express a single negation.

Confuses respondents. Example –

“Does it seem possible or impossible to you that the Holocaust never happened?”

Better Version –

“Does it seem possible to you that the Holocaust never happened, or are you certain that it happened?”

Question Wording: Loaded QuestionsLeading Questions:

Questions designed to get a specific response. Encourages respondents to agree with the

researchers’ expectation. Often uses incorrect information and statements. Examples –

“Do you agree that the U.S. needs socialized medicine to solve its health care problems?”

“Most people we talk to think that President Bush’s tax cuts should be permanent, do you agree?”


Better Versions – “Do you agree that the U.S. needs more government

intervention to solve its health care problems?”

“Some people we talk to think that President Bush’s tax cuts should be permanent. Other people think that they shouldn’t be permanent. Where do you stand?”


Also, related is Push Polls

“Polls” done to change people’s views on something (like candidates).

Example – 2000 South Carolina Republican Primary

“You may or may not know that John McCain has an illegitimate black child. Does that make you more or less likely to vote for him?”

Question Responses: Quality of Responses

Example of phrasing:

“Should money from the budget surplus be used for tax cuts, or for spending on government programs?”

60% say tax cut

“Should money from the budget surplus be used for tax cuts, or for spending on programs for education, the environment, health care, crime-fighting, and military defense?

22% say tax cut

5 things to consider in evaluating a poll:

1. Who sponsored the survey?

2. The size of the sample

3. The method used to collect the data

4. The actual questions

5. Your own review of the numbers

Your Turn…

Most people we talk to think the U.S. should drill for oil in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge, what do you think?

Do you agree or disagree that most Americans don’t realize how capable Iran is at making nuclear weapons, and that the U.S. will need to invade them?

Your Turn…

Syria is known to sponsor terrorism, don’t you agree that we should bomb them?

Evaluate Bush’s handling of the war in Iraq – horrific or the best ever?

Have you stopped smoking crack this week, or was it last week?

What do polls say now?

CNN Political Ticker

Documents

Public Opinion and Polling American Government Bowling Green High School