Public Opinion and the Media

Concepts What is public

opinion?

What is the public agenda, and how is the agenda shaped?

How is public opinion measured?

What role does the media play in shaping public opinion?

What effect does the media have on individual political beliefs and voting behavior?

Public Opinion How people feel Measure everything… why commission

them? Not uniform (some groups more than others) Political issues

General public (day to day)▪ Does not have to be of interest

Issue public (a cause) Few politicians seek the approval of the

general public as a whole (except president)

Characteristics of Public Opinion People who measure public opinion

are not just interested in the direction or the current moment

Try to gauge the characteristics: Saliency Intensity stability

Saliency

Is the degree to which it is important to a particular individual or group

For example, social security Senior citizens? Young voters?

Intensity How strongly do people feel about a

particular issue? High intensity

Can wield strong political influence even when the group is relatively small

Example, gun control▪ Most favor some kind of gun control▪ Intensity is not high, consider other issues▪ NRA minority position with very high intensity and

members do vote based on the issue▪ Result, NRA is one of the most powerful lobbying

groups.

Stability Public opinion on issues changes over time Some issues like support for democracy or a

controlled free-market economy remain stable or constant.

Other change quickly, case: last 2 yrs. of President Bush, Sr. administration During Gulf War (1991) Bush had recorded the

highest public approval ratings of any president since 1945

Less than 2 yrs. later, majority of Americans showed their disapproval of his performance by voting against him.

Measuring Public Opinion By elections

Indirect measure of public opinion▪ Yes or no vote▪ Rarely translates into clear and specific opinions

Referenda Only for a specific issue Very infrequent – submit to popular vote by a

legislative body (not all states even use this) Most frequent and direct is public

opinion polls

Polls Measure Public Opinion Polls

Designed by asking questions of a much smaller group

Achieve this through random sampling (a representative cross section)

How?▪ By phone, machine that dials numbers randomly▪ By exit poll, target voting districts that collectively

represent voting public and randomly poll voters who are leaving

▪ When preformed correctly, can measure the opinions of 300 million Americans by polling a mere 1500 of them.

Wording of the Questions “Do you approve or disapprove of

the death penalty?” Would yield a different result than, “Would you want the death penalty imposed on someone who killed your parents?”

Most try to phrase them objectively Many generally ask closed ended

multiple choice questions v. open ended questions (explain…)

Closed ended easily quantified

Polls cannot be 100 percent accurate Polling organizations include a sampling

error Tells how far off the poll results may be Suppose a poll says 60% favor the death penalty

with a sampling error of 4 percent▪ Actual % could be anywhere between 56 and 64▪ Generally, the more respondents a poll surveys, the

lower the sampling error. Another cause of error, dishonesty▪ Some answer polls as they feel they should verses how

they really feel Well known polls Gallup poll and Harris poll

Where does public opinion come from? Views of individuals Process called political socialization

Family Location School Religious institutions Mass media (youth?) Higher education (questions beliefs)▪ College campuses that are highly politicized and lean in

one direction strong impact on students there Real life experiences▪ Generalizations.

Political Ideologies

Conservative Liberal Moderate

An ideology is a coherent set of thoughts and beliefs about politics and government.

Liberal and conservative are the predominant ideologies in the United States

Conservative Stress individuals should be responsible for

their own well being and should not rely on government assistance Tend to oppose government interference in

private sector Oppose most federal regulations Support free market to determine costs and

business practices Social conservatives

Powerful wing Do support government action on social issues

Liberal Believe government should remedy the social

and economic injustices of the marketplace Support government regulation of the

economy Support government efforts to redress past

social injustices (like affirmative action) Want strict enforcement of the separation of

church and state Against school prayer Against bans on abortions (perceive as motivated

by religious beliefs)

Moderate

Makes up the largest portion of the American public

In 1993, nearly half of all Americans identified themselves as politically moderate

Moderates do not constitute a coherent ideology

View themselves as pragmatists who apply common sense rather than philosophical principles to political problems.

Political Ideologies Compared to other western nations, we have

fewer main ideological groups Americans readily vote outside of their self-

professed political beliefs In 1996, 30% of Americans identified as conservative

voted for Bill Clinton over Bob Dole If you have strong ideological beliefs, you tend to

be the most politically active Balancing act, to reach the top of your party you

must appeal to the more ideological party faithful BUT to win the elections you must move back to the center to win over the general public

Factors in Ideological and Political BehaviorThere is no one-to-one correlation between people’s backgrounds and their political beliefs BUT people who share common traits TEND to share political beliefs.

Determining Factors

Race/ethnicity Religion Gender Income level Region

Public Opinion and the Mass Media

The News Media Plays an important role in the development of

public opinion Includes the following:

News broadcasts on tv and radio Newspapers News magazines, like Time and Newsweek Newsmaker interview programs like Meet the Press or

Larry King Live Magazine broadcasts like 60 minutes and 20/20 Political talk radio like Rush Limbaugh Websites, blogs, and online forums (we can look at

few…Huffington, Politico, etc…)

The News Media

Provides Americans with most extensive exposure to politicians and the government

In some ways, like an intermediary between the people and the government Questioning motives Questioning purposes Then reporting

As the literacy rate in our country grew so did the impact of the news media

The News Media Most important role is setting the public agenda

Decide which news to cover Decides relative importance of political issues Dynamic, as interest in a story grows so does its

importance Less clear how it can influence public opinion▪ Generally accepted that it does only when coverage is

extensive and it is predominantly positive or negative▪ Example, studies show public approval of the president is

volatile and changes depending on the type of coverage Most Americans choose media that reinforce their

political beliefs.

Is the News Media Biased? Lots of critics Objectivity? Time and space constraints? Decide what facts

to omit. Their sources of information can pass on bias Most modern politicians understand the power

of the media and attempt to influence coverage Stage events Press releases More frequent and more sophisticated in recent

years.