Public Opinion

How can we find out public opinion without asking everyone? Polling

Find out the level of disagreement Errors can be found through the questions

Ambivalence- no strong view point / no set winner or opinion

Ex. War on Terror

Based on polls can range whether the U.S. should stay involved Time of crisis 9/11 almost 92% want

something done

Public Opinion

Distribution of the populations beliefs about politics and policy issues Hard to establish with such a diverse

population and so many policies and issues Especially with an Uneducated Population

White Black

78%

de-mog-ra-phyThe study of the characteristics of human populations, such as size, growth, density, distribution, and vital statistics

13%

Where do we get our numbers?

Census (Census Bureau) Every 10 years since 1790 People are suspicious of the government

• No One opens doors anymore• MO loses a House Member

Dep of Commerce v. U.S HOR 1999• No use of Sampling for House Reapportionment

How are numbers changing?

American Melting Pot or Salad Minority Majority- Non Caucasian Majority, compared to Anglo

Saxon Majority Large rise in Hispanic Population-(lower income)

Simpson-Mazzoli Act- plan to slow down influx by having employers document citizenship/ inadequate

Asian Americans- 1965 Immigration Act-opened doors to Skilled population-50% have college degrees

Native Americans- Less than 210,000 people Lower income and below poverty line

Northeast to South West

White, Non-Hispanic63% Black

78%

13%

Hispanic/Latino17%

White, Hispanic

Political Culture

Overall set of values widely shared within society Treat everyone Equal no matter your

ethnicity

Culture v. Climate How do we get our beliefs?

Political Socialization

Political socialization is the process by which individuals learn the values and norms in their society and by which political culture is passed from one generation to another.

Political Socialization

I. Most of the time is not from Mr. Williams. Accidently, though educations does equal more voting

a. Family-political learnings from parents, not to direct or rebellion

b. Mass Media-new parents

i. lack of political knowledge(Lack of attention spans)

c. School- Push for capitalism, and democracy

i. student senate, pledge of allegiance, fight for first place best grades,

ii. Why do we teach government?

Political Learning

Experience- political behavior is learned not taught

We learn through public opinion

Political Ideology

Liberal v. Conservative Left v. Right Democrat v. Republican

Most people in America do not claim ideologies- fall in the Moderate area.

Liberal

Central Government Taxes Economy Social Programs Stereotypes

Women- Gender Gap-pattern that women vote for Democratic Candidates

Religion

Conservative

Freer Reign to the Private Sector Taxes Economy Social Programs Stereotypes

Race Religion

IdeaLog 2D ModelKNOW THIS ONE!

LIBERALFAVOR: Gov’t activities that promote

equality, such as affirmative action and increased spending on public housing.

OPPOSE: Gov’t actions that restrict individual liberties, such as banning

sexually explicit movies or mandatory testing for AIDS.

COMMUNITARIANFAVOR: Gov’t activities that promote

equality, such as affirmative action and increased spending on public housing.

FAVOR: Gov’t actions that impose social order, such as banning sexually explicit movies or mandatory testing for AIDS.

LIBERTARIANOPPOSE: Government activities that interfere with the market, such as

affirmative action programs and increased spending on public housing.

OPPOSE: Gov’t actions that restrict individual liberties, such as banning

sexually explicit movies or mandatory testing for AIDS.

CONSERVATIVEOPPOSE: Government activities that interfere with the market, such as

affirmative action programs and increased spending on public housing.

FAVOR: Gov’t actions that impose social order, such as banning sexually explicit movies or mandatory testing for AIDS.

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FREEDOM ORDERThe Original Dilemma

Ideology Classifications

Ideologues-connects opinions with candidates

Group Benefits-like party and members based on benefiting

Nature of the Times- link time frames to party

No issue content group- vote on based on personality

Political Participation

Caucus/Primary/National Convention

Demonstrations Interest groups/political Party Media Sue the Government Vote Etc…….

How do we check the populations opinions?

George Gallup- Gallup Poll Cross examination of the population to find

what the majority of people want. 1 gallon of blood to a few drops

Sample- smaller proportion of people Random Sampling- equal probability

of being selected Sampling error- more people, less

error- typical 1500 people 3% error

“If the election was held today, for whom would you

vote?”vs.

“Who do you think will win the election?”

5% edge

20% edge

You

Family

Co-Workers

Colleagues

Neighbors

Friends

After finishing their interviews - usually with about 1,000 people, sometimes more - Pollsters adjust the answers to make sure they reflect Census Bureau data on the population like gender, age, education, and race. For example, if the proportion of women interviewed is smaller than their actual share of the country’s population, their answers are given more “weight” to balance that out. Some pollsters make these adjustments different than others.

I don’t have a landline or if I do, I never answer it

The Pew Foundation found cell-phone-only users tend to be younger, male, less-white, and more Hispanic.

The CDC found cell-phone-only users to be renters, people with roommates, and people in poverty.

How do you use polls?

Help candidates detect Public Preference Pulse or Temp

Improve Democracy but allowing public desires to be heard

Not create policy but to help shape public presentations

Weaken Democracy-bandwagon effect- join because everyone else does

Types of Polls

Exit Poll- public opinion after a person votes Timezone Fall out

Straw Poll- Tracking Poll-same people multiple

times Push Poll-direct someones vote Random digit dialing-

Types of PollsPush Poll

"Would you be more likely or less likely to vote for John McCain for president if you

knew he had fathered an illegitimate black child?"

“Would you be more or less likely to vote for Jill Docking knowing

she is a Jew?”

Would you vote for him?

Are you aware that Claude Pepper is known all over Washington as a shameless extrovert? Not only that, but this man is reliably reported to practice nepotism with his sister-in-law, he has a brother who is a known homo sapiens, and he has a sister who was once a thespian in wicked New York. Worst of all, it is an established fact that Mr. Pepper, before his marriage, habitually practiced celibacy.

Poll from MO

Women’s Suffrage Create a unfair question that would

make people vote a specific way Jefferson- level of public knowledge

about politics is dismally low People recognize slogans more than famous

political Leaders

Microtargeting

MicrotargetingMicrotargeters label clusters of voters like ‘Flag & Family Republicans’ or ‘Tax & Terror

Moderates’

Microtargeting

Microtargeting

Why waste robocalls, canvassing time, direct mailings, fund raising calls, etc. on these folks? They

don’t match the ‘cluster.'

MicrotargetingVoter Vault (R)Catalist (D)

Ooops…

After the 2000 election, when Terry McAuliffe took over as chair of the Democratic Party, he was horrified to discover that the party had no voter files to help contact potential supporters. When he dove into the state party lists, he found there were 27 million wrong addresses and phone numbers. In Florida, the Democratic Party had more than 1.1 million incorrect files. McAuliffe fumed, “Don’t you think we could have found 537 votes if we had corrected that information earlier and contacted 1.1 million more people?”