Public Opinion--Knowledge/Beliefs--Measuring Public Opinion--Using Public Opinion Data/Forecasting Elections

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Public Opinion—Knowledge/Beliefs• I. Knowledge About Politics• A. Levels of Knowledge: Fairly Low

• 1. Structural Knowledge• 2. Policy/Personnel Knowledge• 3. Implications for the Political System?

• B. Levels of Knowledge• 1. Function of Socio-Economic Status (SES): positive relationship• a. education, income, occupation

• C. Sources of Knowledge• 1. Shift from newspapers to TV news• a. TV less thorough, complete, or coherent• b. rise of the “soundbite”

• D. Issue Publics/Attentive Publics: The Exception to the Rule• 1. VERY knowledgeable voters• 2. Small groups especially interested in specific issues• Influence disproportionate to group size

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Public Opinion—Knowledge/Beliefs• II. Beliefs about Politics• A. Nature of Beliefs: Nonideological

• 1. Ideology = consistent and interrelated values that conform to an underlying principle

• 2. Most Americans (liberals/moderates/conservatives) don’t meet that definition• a. “Ideologyville”

• B. How we Learn our Political Beliefs: Political Socialization• 1. Definition: intergenerational transmission of political values• 2. Agents of socialization (rank-ordered):• a. Family• b. Schools• c. Peers—reference groups• d. Media 3

Public Opinion—Measurement • I. Scientific Polling—MUST ensure representativeness• A. Steps in conducting a scientific poll: (example for LHS?)

• 1. Identify the population• 2. Random selection of the sample• a. THE most important part of a scientific poll (GIGO)

• 3. Construct questionnaire• 4. Administer questionnaire• 5. Analyze and interpret results

• B. Sources of error in scientific polling:• 1. sampling errors• a. If the sample does not correspond to the intended population = BIAS• b. typical sample size is around 1200 respondents for a national poll

• 2. questionnaire errors• a. ambiguous terms/questions• b. loaded terms (push polls)• c. forcing a response (no “no opinion” option)• d. question order

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Public Opinion—Measurement • B. Sources of error in scientific polling (cont.):

• 3. administrator errors• a. bias due to the administrator of the questionnaire• b. failure to follow procedures

• i. script

• 4. respondent errors• a. misunderstand question• b. mis-recall the past• c. pressure to give “correct” responses

• 5. interpretive errors• a. misrepresenting results• b. media “frenzy” and statistical probability

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Public Opinion—Using the Data/Forecasting Elections• I. Polling as a tool: forecasting elections• A. “Methods” of forecasting:

• 1. Prognosticators—pure coincidence• 2. Politicos/Pundits• a. make “predictions” • b. go with their “gut”• c. my be self-interested

• 3. Bellwether• a. an “indicator” electoral district

• i. microcosm of U.S.

• 4. Polls• a. Scientific• b. “straw polls”

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