Public Opinion & Political Socialization

ObjectivesObjectives• Define public opinion and explain its role in political

decision making.• Describe American political culture and explain how it

is has evolved over time.• Define American exceptionalism and consider the

factors that have contributed to this perspective.• Understand political socialization and the sources

through which Americans learn their values.

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ObjectivesObjectives• Identify the ways in which different groups affect public

opinion and politics in general.• Evaluate the factors that bring about changes in public

opinion.• Explain how ideologies acquire their structure.• Explore the different methods by which public opinion

can be measured.

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Public Opinion

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• Consists of the combined voices of all the people in a society on political issues.• Until 1940, public opinion complex entity:

multiple public voices• Polling and survey analysis emerge• Measure of all the people’s views• As technology and survey analysis

techniques advanced, public opinion became understood to be the average of all individual opinions.

Political Culture

• Political culture• Consists of the political

attitudes and beliefs held broadly among its citizens.• Varies among countries• Related to political

decision making• Usually changes slowly

• American culture cornerstones• Fairness, individualism,

religion and rule of law• Cornerstones of

democracy• Tolerance of ideas• Trust in government• Political efficacy• Political knowledge and

attention to policies

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American Exceptionalism

• The idea that the U.S. is different from the rest of the world and therefore very special.• Used in a number of ways:• Unique American ideology: freedom, equality, and

individualism• Immigrant history: melting pot• Shining city on the hill with a special destiny to lead the world

to liberty and democracy• Different and “better” than the rest of the world• Implications for relations with other countries; conflict?

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Political SocializationPolitical Socialization• Political Socialization: The learning of political values and

factual assumptions about politics• Occurs most readily in childhood and diminishes as people age.• Children learn basic social attitudes in their families.• Early political learning is very basic.• In adolescence and early adulthood, people form more concrete ideas

about politics.• Continue to learn and develop; role of extraordinary events

• Political identities• Images of who you are – political content: religion or political party

• Party identification• A sense of belonging or attachment to one or another of the political

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Political SocializationPolitical Socialization

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Political Events

(generational effect)

Political Events

(generational effect)

Group Differences in the United StatesGroup Differences in the United States

• AGE: American population growing older• Differences between

younger and older Americans:• Older: hold on to status quo

view; younger: tend to embrace newer view.

• Younger voters often willing to support less typical candidates.

• Race and ethnic groups:• The U.S. comprises a diverse

population• 2050: Only about half

population will consist of non-Hispanic whites.

• Differences across racial/ethnic groups – often related to economic disparities

• Sometimes issue-specific:• Role of life experiences among

groups: discrimination

• Hispanics: socially conservative; economically liberal

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Group Differences in the United StatesGroup Differences in the United States

• Religion: Americans are more religious than citizens of other economically well-off countries.• Less developed countries very

religious: Saudi Arabia, India, Nigeria…

• Important determinant of voting behavior

• Catholics: evenly divided among two parties

• Protestants: mainline and evangelical• Tilt toward Republican Party;

evangelicals very much so.

• Jews: more liberal on most issues – 21% identify as Republicans.

• Muslims: identify with the Democratic Party• Strong emphasis on caring for the

poor• Conservative on moral issues• Islam plays a strong role• Fear of extremism

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Social ClassSocial Class

• Income differences in the U.S. are greater than in most of the world, and they are increasing.• Social class as a political dividing line:• FDR and the New Deal• Today, low income voters are pulled two ways: social and religious issues

pull them toward Republicans; economic issues toward the Democrats. Generally, more toward Democrats.

• High income voters associated with business interests tend to favor the Republican Party; higher income professionals often side with liberals on social issues.

• Difficult for Democratic candidates to please both segments of the voting population.

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Gender

• Before 1980s men and women voted alike and held similar views on political issues.

• Gender gap emerged in 1980s: Women usually vote in greater numbers for Democratic candidates than men do.

• 2008: The gap was 5%.• Differences not found in feminist issues such as abortion and equal

rights, but rather in government intervention to help people and issues involving war and foreign policy.

• Why? Women more nurturing? Women poorer?

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Regions of the CountryRegions of the Country

• States do not differ a much as “blue” state, “red” state representations suggest.• South more conservative on social issues than those

who live on the west coast.• Regions do not vary much on their views on economic

issues or foreign policy.• They do divide differently in terms of political party.• Democrats: West Coast and Northeast• Republicans: Southern and mountain states• Split: Midwest

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How Public Opinion ChangesHow Public Opinion Changes

• Public opinion can change.• Events or leaders:

Clinton and health insurance, Terrorist attacks of 9-11• Generational

replacement: Change due to differences between old and new generation. When old die out, overall opinion shifts.• 30 to 50 years

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Changes in Party IdentificationChanges in Party Identification

• Slow decline in party identification.• Usually pretty stable; can shift in response to events or leaders.• Long-term evolution of party identification does occur: recent history

– increase in number of independents• Global phenomenon: What has caused this increase in industrialized

democracies?• Not clear, generally supported explanation.

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How Ideologies Gain Their StructureHow Ideologies Gain Their Structure• Ideology has structuring principle – connects concepts so they

relate to one another• Europe: socialism, Christian democracy• United States: example found in limited government,

maximum freedom for libertarians• Liberalism and conservatism: different structuring principles –

what are they?

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How Public Opinion Is MeasuredHow Public Opinion Is Measured• Poll – set of questions asked of a carefully

constructed sampling of a population.• Random sample• Margin of error

• Early Polls• Literary Digest poll: did not conduct random

samples, only very large ones primarily with middle class voters; did well for a while until 1936 election, when bias appeared in a sample. They predicted Alf Landon the winner, but many of the poor were voting for Roosevelt.

• Another famous goof: Truman and Dewey • Polls stopped two weeks before and missed large

surge in Truman support.

• Today, polls much more accurate.

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Polls TodayPolls Today• Types of Polls and Techniques• Cluster sampling

• Approximates a true random sample

• Random digit dialing• Internet polling

• How does it generate a truly random sample?

• Polls in campaigns• Tracking polls• Exit polls• Push polls

• What are the limitations of polls?• Margin of error• Question effects; wording• Artificial situations

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