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Public Opinion & Political Socialization

Public Opinion & Political Socialization. Public Opinion How people think or feel about particular things Aggregate (sum) opinion of many “publics” (factions)

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Page 1: Public Opinion & Political Socialization. Public Opinion How people think or feel about particular things Aggregate (sum) opinion of many “publics” (factions)

Public Opinion &Political

Socialization

Page 2: Public Opinion & Political Socialization. Public Opinion How people think or feel about particular things Aggregate (sum) opinion of many “publics” (factions)

Public Opinion

• How people think or feel about particular things

• Aggregate (sum) opinion of many “publics” (factions)

• Constitutional Checks: federalism, representative gov’t, separation of powers,

Bill of Rights, independent judiciary

Page 3: Public Opinion & Political Socialization. Public Opinion How people think or feel about particular things Aggregate (sum) opinion of many “publics” (factions)

Measuring Public Opinion• Poll: Survey of public opinion

• Ensuring Reliable Results:–Random Sample:

• Any voter/adult has = chance • Choose participants from geo. units• Make 15,000 phone calls, goal:

reach 1500 people (will settle for 1,065)

–Sampling Error• Difference between 2 samples (±3% OK)

Page 4: Public Opinion & Political Socialization. Public Opinion How people think or feel about particular things Aggregate (sum) opinion of many “publics” (factions)

Polling Accuracy

Respondent’s Knowledge–25% of Americans follow politics

“very closely” (Gallup Poll, 2002)

–Respondents unlikely to admit this lack of knowledge

–Allow “I don’t know” as a response

Examples follow:

Page 5: Public Opinion & Political Socialization. Public Opinion How people think or feel about particular things Aggregate (sum) opinion of many “publics” (factions)

Don’t Know Answers – offered or volunteered?

42%

54%

4%

NPR/Kaiser Family Foundation/Kennedy School of Government Education Survey, June 1999 (conducted June 25 – July 19, 1999)

Do you favor or oppose the government offering parents money or "vouchers" to send their children to private or religious schools, or public schools outside their district?

Do you favor or oppose the government offering parents money or "vouchers" to send their children to private or religious schools, or public schools outside their district, or haven’t you heard enough about that to have an opinion?

31%

36%

33%Favor

Oppose

No opinion

Favor

Oppose

No opinion

Page 6: Public Opinion & Political Socialization. Public Opinion How people think or feel about particular things Aggregate (sum) opinion of many “publics” (factions)

Polling AccuracyObjective Wording

–Avoid “loaded” or emotional words:• “How much do you distrust Iran?”• “Which public officials have most egregiously

violated the public trust?”

–Yes/No Answers vs. Ranking

–Open-ended vs. Closed-ended

–Must respondent prioritize answers?

• Examples:

Page 7: Public Opinion & Political Socialization. Public Opinion How people think or feel about particular things Aggregate (sum) opinion of many “publics” (factions)

The Importance of Words

Statement: The country isn’t spending enough $ on assistance to the poor. Agreement: 63%

Statement (same survey sample): The country isn’t spending enough $ on welfare. Agreement: 19%

Page 8: Public Opinion & Political Socialization. Public Opinion How people think or feel about particular things Aggregate (sum) opinion of many “publics” (factions)

Open-ended or Closed-ended?

7%

8%

10%

12%

15%

15%

15%

Kaiser Family Foundation/Harvard School of Public Health Health News Index, April 2003 (conducted April 3-6, 2003)

What do you think is the most important problem in health or health care for the government to address? (top 7 answers)

Which of the following do you think is the most important health care issue for the President and Congress to deal with?

Cost of health care

Cost of Rx drugs

Coverage for uninsured

Senior citizens’ care

Other medical conditions

Rx coverage for seniors

Cost of insurance8%

11%

18%

27%

27%Helping seniors pay for prescription medicines

Increasing the number of Americans covered

by health insurance

Making Medicare more financially sound for

future generations

Lowering the cost of medical malpractice

insurance for physicians

Helping states with the cost of Medicaid

Page 9: Public Opinion & Political Socialization. Public Opinion How people think or feel about particular things Aggregate (sum) opinion of many “publics” (factions)

Using scales – getting to “the most”

Now, I’m going to read you some different health care issues. As I read each one, please tell me how important you think it is for the President and Congress to deal with this issue – very important, somewhat important, not too important, or not important at all.

Source: Kaiser Family Foundation Health Poll Report

53%

64%

74%

81%

81%

Making Medicare more financially sound for future generations

Increasing the number of Americans covered by health insurance

Helping states with the cost of Medicaid

Lowering the cost of medical malpractice insurance for physicians

When forced to choose…

Which of the following issues you say are very important do you think is most important?*

Percent saying “very important” Percent saying “most important”

*Also includes those who named only one issue as “very important”

Helping people age 65 and over pay for prescription medicines

11%

8%

27%

19%

27%

Page 10: Public Opinion & Political Socialization. Public Opinion How people think or feel about particular things Aggregate (sum) opinion of many “publics” (factions)

Polling AccuracyCost Efficiency vs. Accuracy

• Caller ID making polls more expensive–Lower response rates harm reliability

• Straw Polls = UNRELIABLE–No moderates, repeat respondents

–Ex. Viewer call-in polls, web polls

• Videos: 5 Hour Energy, Daily Show

Page 11: Public Opinion & Political Socialization. Public Opinion How people think or feel about particular things Aggregate (sum) opinion of many “publics” (factions)

Polls to Know

Gallup Poll

• Started in 1930s

• Tracks public’s attitudes on every political, social, & economic issue– Switched from door-to-door to random

phone dialing in 1980s

• Nearly always objective & accurate– 1948 “Dewey Defeats Truman” blunder

Page 12: Public Opinion & Political Socialization. Public Opinion How people think or feel about particular things Aggregate (sum) opinion of many “publics” (factions)
Page 13: Public Opinion & Political Socialization. Public Opinion How people think or feel about particular things Aggregate (sum) opinion of many “publics” (factions)

Polls to Know

Harris Poll

• Started in 1963

• Uses Telephone & Online surveys

Nielsen Ratings

• Started in early 1940s

• TV and entertainment preferences

Pew Research Center (a “fact bank”)

Page 14: Public Opinion & Political Socialization. Public Opinion How people think or feel about particular things Aggregate (sum) opinion of many “publics” (factions)

Political Socialization

• Process by which people acquire political beliefs & attitudes–Personal Traits

–Background Traits

• Group Identification affects political attitudes

Page 15: Public Opinion & Political Socialization. Public Opinion How people think or feel about particular things Aggregate (sum) opinion of many “publics” (factions)

Political Socialization

1. Family

2. Education

3. Religion

4. Gender

5. Social Class

6. Race/Ethnicity

7. Geographic Region