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Public Opinion &Political
Socialization
Public Opinion
• How people think or feel about particular things
• Aggregate (sum) opinion of many “publics” (factions)
• Constitutional Checks: federalism, representative gov’t, separation of powers,
Bill of Rights, independent judiciary
Measuring Public Opinion• Poll: Survey of public opinion
• Ensuring Reliable Results:–Random Sample:
• Any voter/adult has = chance • Choose participants from geo. units• Make 15,000 phone calls, goal:
reach 1500 people (will settle for 1,065)
–Sampling Error• Difference between 2 samples (±3% OK)
Polling Accuracy
Respondent’s Knowledge–25% of Americans follow politics
“very closely” (Gallup Poll, 2002)
–Respondents unlikely to admit this lack of knowledge
–Allow “I don’t know” as a response
Examples follow:
Don’t Know Answers – offered or volunteered?
42%
54%
4%
NPR/Kaiser Family Foundation/Kennedy School of Government Education Survey, June 1999 (conducted June 25 – July 19, 1999)
Do you favor or oppose the government offering parents money or "vouchers" to send their children to private or religious schools, or public schools outside their district?
Do you favor or oppose the government offering parents money or "vouchers" to send their children to private or religious schools, or public schools outside their district, or haven’t you heard enough about that to have an opinion?
31%
36%
33%Favor
Oppose
No opinion
Favor
Oppose
No opinion
Polling AccuracyObjective Wording
–Avoid “loaded” or emotional words:• “How much do you distrust Iran?”• “Which public officials have most egregiously
violated the public trust?”
–Yes/No Answers vs. Ranking
–Open-ended vs. Closed-ended
–Must respondent prioritize answers?
• Examples:
The Importance of Words
Statement: The country isn’t spending enough $ on assistance to the poor. Agreement: 63%
Statement (same survey sample): The country isn’t spending enough $ on welfare. Agreement: 19%
Open-ended or Closed-ended?
7%
8%
10%
12%
15%
15%
15%
Kaiser Family Foundation/Harvard School of Public Health Health News Index, April 2003 (conducted April 3-6, 2003)
What do you think is the most important problem in health or health care for the government to address? (top 7 answers)
Which of the following do you think is the most important health care issue for the President and Congress to deal with?
Cost of health care
Cost of Rx drugs
Coverage for uninsured
Senior citizens’ care
Other medical conditions
Rx coverage for seniors
Cost of insurance8%
11%
18%
27%
27%Helping seniors pay for prescription medicines
Increasing the number of Americans covered
by health insurance
Making Medicare more financially sound for
future generations
Lowering the cost of medical malpractice
insurance for physicians
Helping states with the cost of Medicaid
Using scales – getting to “the most”
Now, I’m going to read you some different health care issues. As I read each one, please tell me how important you think it is for the President and Congress to deal with this issue – very important, somewhat important, not too important, or not important at all.
Source: Kaiser Family Foundation Health Poll Report
53%
64%
74%
81%
81%
Making Medicare more financially sound for future generations
Increasing the number of Americans covered by health insurance
Helping states with the cost of Medicaid
Lowering the cost of medical malpractice insurance for physicians
When forced to choose…
Which of the following issues you say are very important do you think is most important?*
Percent saying “very important” Percent saying “most important”
*Also includes those who named only one issue as “very important”
Helping people age 65 and over pay for prescription medicines
11%
8%
27%
19%
27%
Polling AccuracyCost Efficiency vs. Accuracy
• Caller ID making polls more expensive–Lower response rates harm reliability
• Straw Polls = UNRELIABLE–No moderates, repeat respondents
–Ex. Viewer call-in polls, web polls
• Videos: 5 Hour Energy, Daily Show
Polls to Know
Gallup Poll
• Started in 1930s
• Tracks public’s attitudes on every political, social, & economic issue– Switched from door-to-door to random
phone dialing in 1980s
• Nearly always objective & accurate– 1948 “Dewey Defeats Truman” blunder
Polls to Know
Harris Poll
• Started in 1963
• Uses Telephone & Online surveys
Nielsen Ratings
• Started in early 1940s
• TV and entertainment preferences
Pew Research Center (a “fact bank”)
Political Socialization
• Process by which people acquire political beliefs & attitudes–Personal Traits
–Background Traits
• Group Identification affects political attitudes
Political Socialization
1. Family
2. Education
3. Religion
4. Gender
5. Social Class
6. Race/Ethnicity
7. Geographic Region