Public Opinion Public Opinion & Political & Political

SocializationSocialization

Public OpinionPublic Opinion Did the Framer’s intend for our Did the Framer’s intend for our

government to mirror public opinion?government to mirror public opinion? What part of our government What part of our government

protects against public opinion or protects against public opinion or “popular passions”?“popular passions”?

Checks on American Govt. Checks on American Govt. from Public Opinionfrom Public Opinion

Representative govt.Representative govt.– ((Federalist 10Federalist 10 & creation of republic) & creation of republic)

FederalismFederalism Separation of powersSeparation of powers BORBOR Independent judiciaryIndependent judiciary

Public OpinionPublic Opinion The attitudes, perceptions, and viewpoints The attitudes, perceptions, and viewpoints

individuals hold about government and individuals hold about government and politicspolitics

Influenced by political culture and political Influenced by political culture and political socializationsocialization

Skewed by limited political education and Skewed by limited political education and efficacyefficacy

Shaped by government, interest groups, Shaped by government, interest groups, and mass mediaand mass media

Development of PollsDevelopment of Polls Straw PollsStraw Polls

– Asked same question to large number of peopleAsked same question to large number of people– Unreliable due to no cross-section of general Unreliable due to no cross-section of general

populationpopulation George Gallup’s IdeasGeorge Gallup’s Ideas

– SamplingSampling Represent general population and Represent general population and

randomizedrandomized 1000-15001000-1500

– Valid questionsValid questions Clear, fair, unbiased, not misleadingClear, fair, unbiased, not misleading

– Control of pollControl of poll Tone of question, basic knowledge of issuesTone of question, basic knowledge of issues

– AnalysisAnalysis Provide sampling errorsProvide sampling errors, show time and , show time and

place of pollplace of poll

Political SocializationPolitical Socialization Process through which an individual Process through which an individual

acquires political opinions and acquires political opinions and assimilates into our nation’s political assimilates into our nation’s political systemsystem

Agents of socializationAgents of socialization– FamilyFamily– SchoolSchool– Peer GroupsPeer Groups– Mass MediaMass Media

Factors that Affect Factors that Affect Public OpinionPublic Opinion

ReligionReligion Religious influences on opinion most Religious influences on opinion most

pronounced on social issuespronounced on social issues Jews are the most liberal demographic group Jews are the most liberal demographic group

todaytoday Catholics tend to be liberalCatholics tend to be liberal Protestants tend to be conservativeProtestants tend to be conservative Fundamentalist Christians (born again or Fundamentalist Christians (born again or

evangelicals) are the most conservative groups evangelicals) are the most conservative groups todaytoday

Christian Coalition- Republican affiliation, was Christian Coalition- Republican affiliation, was once very powerful grassroots organizationonce very powerful grassroots organization

Atheist or agnostics are more liberal than Atheist or agnostics are more liberal than conservativeconservative

Gender GapGender Gap Women were more likely to support the Women were more likely to support the

Republican Party than men in the 1920s Republican Party than men in the 1920s and through the 1960s…correlation and through the 1960s…correlation reversedreversed

Men have become increasingly Republican Men have become increasingly Republican since the 1960s but women has remained since the 1960s but women has remained unchangedunchanged

Biggest reason for gap: size of govt., gun Biggest reason for gap: size of govt., gun control, spending programs aimed at poor, control, spending programs aimed at poor, and gay rightsand gay rights

EducationEducation Increased schooling leads to greater Increased schooling leads to greater

political activitypolitical activity College tends to have a liberalizing College tends to have a liberalizing

affect on studentsaffect on students Students at the most prestigious or Students at the most prestigious or

selective colleges are the most selective colleges are the most liberal of all liberal of all

Married v. UnmarriedMarried v. Unmarried Singles are more likely to vote for Singles are more likely to vote for

Democratic candidatesDemocratic candidates Married voters are more likely to Married voters are more likely to

support Republicanssupport Republicans

Sexual OrientationSexual Orientation Homosexuals tend to side Homosexuals tend to side

with liberal policies with liberal policies especially regarding especially regarding social issuessocial issues

Homosexuals Homosexuals concentrated in urban concentrated in urban areasareas

Strong religious Strong religious affiliations compel most affiliations compel most heterosexuals to deny heterosexuals to deny equal rights to equal rights to homosexualshomosexuals

Blue: Allows same sex marriageRed: State constitution bans same sex marriage and same sex unions

Social ClassSocial Class Americans vote less based on Americans vote less based on

class than Europeansclass than Europeans The main reason is COLLEGE- the The main reason is COLLEGE- the

great equalizer of the social great equalizer of the social classes.classes.

This factor has recently been the This factor has recently been the most unclear and hardest trait to most unclear and hardest trait to predictpredict

Social ClassSocial Class Lower-classLower-class

– Limited educationLimited education– Prefer more government economic Prefer more government economic

interventionintervention– Tend to vote Democrat, but low Tend to vote Democrat, but low

voter turnoutvoter turnout Working-class (blue-collar)Working-class (blue-collar)

– Tend to vote Democrat, but subject Tend to vote Democrat, but subject to other influencesto other influences

– White blue-collar workers tend to White blue-collar workers tend to vote more Republicanvote more Republican

Middle-class (white-collar)Middle-class (white-collar)– Tend to be split and dependent on Tend to be split and dependent on

other influencesother influences Upper-classUpper-class

– Tend to vote Republican with pro-Tend to vote Republican with pro-business policies and less business policies and less government economic intrusiongovernment economic intrusion

Race and EthnicityRace and Ethnicity Whites vote more Whites vote more

RepublicanRepublican– Support death penalty, Support death penalty,

more defense spendingmore defense spending Blacks vote more Blacks vote more

DemocratDemocrat– Affirmative action, Affirmative action,

national healthcarenational healthcare Hispanics vote more Hispanics vote more

DemocratDemocrat– immigrationimmigration

Asians vote more Asians vote more RepublicanRepublican– Conservative cultureConservative culture2008 Democratic primary campaign

between Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton

RegionRegion New England - more New England - more

liberalliberal Southeast/Bible Belt - Southeast/Bible Belt -

more conservativemore conservative Midwest - more Midwest - more

conservativeconservative Pacific - more liberalPacific - more liberal Urban - more Urban - more

liberal/Democraticliberal/Democratic Suburbs/small towns - Suburbs/small towns -

more conservativemore conservative Rural - more Rural - more

conservative/Republicaconservative/Republicann

““Solid SouthSolid South

Cleavages in Public Cleavages in Public OpinionOpinion

Public opinions are never absolute and always Public opinions are never absolute and always overlapoverlap

Examples:Examples:– Blacks vote Democrat due to support on affirmative Blacks vote Democrat due to support on affirmative

action and equality policies, but most blacks are action and equality policies, but most blacks are against gay marriageagainst gay marriage

– Cubans vote Republican despite majority of Cubans vote Republican despite majority of Hispanics voting Democrat for immigration policiesHispanics voting Democrat for immigration policies

– A blue-collar worker would vote Democrat for pro-A blue-collar worker would vote Democrat for pro-union policies, but votes Republican due to union policies, but votes Republican due to conservative religious traditionsconservative religious traditions

– Though men tend to vote more Republican than Though men tend to vote more Republican than women, most men support pro-choice policieswomen, most men support pro-choice policies