PUI Q2 Quarterly Report

Quarterly Real Estate Report

Q2. 2012

A Member Of Real Living

PacUnion.com

Table of Contents

Second Quarter Successes – And More Optimism Ahead 3

Exclusive: Pacific Union’s Interview With Stephen Levy 4

MARIN COUNTY 11

NAPA COUNTY 15

SONOMA COUNTY 18

SONOMA VALLEY 21

EAST BAY 24

CONTRA COSTA COUNTY 28

A Member of Real Living

Second Quarter Successes – And More Optimism AheadAs we close the books on the first half of 2012, we’re pleased with what we see in the rear-view mirror.

Here in the Bay Area, we experienced an over-30 percent increase in homes sold, year over year. Many of Pacific Union International’s regions continue to show robust and dynamic growth in homes sold, putting them on track to post their best years since 2005. And we are even more excited about what lies ahead with Bay Area real estate. We’ve seen numerous positive indicators in our regional data, including firm pricing, multiple offers, and fewer days on the market – all of which support the belief that the current Bay Area housing demand is indeed sustainable.

Meanwhile, sellers are slowly coming off the sidelines, and we are finally seeing an improvement in the number of available homes for sale. This suggests that people are more confident of getting the sales prices they want.

On a larger scale, the real and marked improvement in our Bay Area economic engines, particularly with job growth and the successful technology sector, indicates that the bottom of the real estate market is finally behind us and we are at long last in a new market.

We recently had a conversation with Stephen Levy, one of the top economists in California, whose observations on these topics further fueled our optimism as we swing into summer. We’re sharing that exclusive interview with you in this quarterly report and are confident you’ll find it as valuable as we did.

We wish you all the best for a happy, healthy summer!

Mark A. McLaughlin, CEO, Pacific Union International

Please remember to seek out local news, trend analysis and advice for your real estate decisions.A Member of Real Living

Exclusive: Pacific Union’s Interview With Stephen LevyIn late June, Pacific Union International spoke exclusively with Stephen Levy, director and senior economist of the Center for Continuing Study of the California Economy (CCSCE) in Palo Alto, about the state of the economy and the real estate market in the San Francisco Bay Area. Here are the highlights of our interview.

Pacific Union: Housing markets are on fire, but this seems to be consumer-led rather than job-led. What’s your view of the Bay Area versus the state as a whole?

Stephen Levy: For the San Jose and San Francisco metro area, jobs are on fire. The San Jose metro area is the fastest-growing large metro area in the U.S., measured by jobs, and the San Francisco metro area (San Francisco, San Mateo, and Marin counties) is close behind. We’ve seen 2.8 percent (San Francisco) to 3.5 percent (San Jose) growth from May 2011 to May 2012, which is way ahead of the nation.

It’s also IPO-led. It’s job-related, but also tied to the ability to cash out from the successes of LinkedIn, Google, and Facebook.

Is the Bay Area still in economic recovery, or are we transitioning to growth?

Both. The Santa Clara valley and San Francisco are transitioning to catch this new wave of growth. Most of the state and most of the rest of the Bay Area is still struggling with the lack of construction and lack of government jobs; there hasn’t been really any big pickup in home building. They’re definitely in recovery. The only places you could say are in a new growth mode are San Francisco and San Jose.

I wouldn’t worry about the unemployment rate quite as much as the rate of job growth. If it stays up, it’s because people are pouring into the workforce.

How bullish are you on an appreciable drop in the unemployment rate?

Santa Clara is at 8.2 percent, and both San Francisco and San Mateo are below 8 percent already. Those counties will have their own special bonanza. The state is at 10.9 percent unemployment and won’t see 8 percent for three years at an absolute minimum. But the Bay Area will be below 8 percent as a region.

Are you saying that the job-growth rate is a more meaningful economic indicator than unemployment?

Yes, absolutely. My mother, who made clothes, always said, “You’re only as good as your next season.” Our current “next season” is looking pretty good. It’s not just Facebook and LinkedIn, it’s the big run-up in value of Apple, Google … it’s pretty broad.

What do you see happening in Contra Costa County? Many corporations have moved out there and it seems attractive for business.

I think it’s an incredibly attractive area for the same reason it has been for past 15-20 years: It captures both the labor market within the region as well as the labor market close to it in the Central Valley — Stockton and Tracy, and further out. It’s very well placed for the labor force. They’re not doing what San Jose and San Francisco are doing, but for the long-term future they have a great location.

Housing has been on a tear in Marin lately. Is that due to a jobs uptick?

They have low unemployment, but a lot of those folks work in the city. I don’t know about job growth — unemployment tends to affect you where you live, while job growth is where you work.

Is there any bright news ahead for the East Bay?

I think they’re caught up in the national slowdown. I think they’ll do fine once we get into a strong recovery nationally. They were a home-building center, and have been hurt by that. They’re a very strong region, and historically have had location and price advantages.

In the Wine Country — Sonoma and Napa counties — we’ve noticed increased demand lately, especially for vacation homes. Do you see job growth as an engine there?

That area is not my specialty, but I don’t think the home buying you are seeing is related to local job growth. Foreign investors from affluent areas find California prices cheap — in Napa as well as Palo Alto and Newport Beach. I think Napa and Sonoma are connected to both the overall Bay Area high-end economic growth and to the worldwide tourism/retirement demand.

The Pew Research Center just released a report, “The Rise of Asian Americans,” talking about how Asians are now our largest immigrant group. What I see is that the Asian buyer market is on fire, both with new immigrants and because Chinese and other Asian folks are heading into tech companies as employees.

Finally, is there anything you see driving jobs besides tech?

There has been a resurgence in convention and tourist activity. Hotel and tourist numbers are up. Foreign trade has also been doing pretty well. Tech, trade, and tourism — the three Ts — bring other economic improvement along with them. Retail sales are picking up as the income flow from the tech sector begins to spread into restaurants, car dealerships, and other areas.

Bay Area 10-Year Overview

Here’s a statistical look at the Bay Area’s real estate markets in the second quarter of 2012, with a glance back at the 10 preceding second quarters. The numbers show strong sales activity in the quarter just ended – our best since 2005.

CONTRA COSTA COUNTY

EAST BAY

MARIN COUNTY

NAPA COUNTY

SAN FRANCISCO- S.F.H.

SAN FRANCISCO - CONDOS

SONOMA COUNTY

SONOMA VALLEY

BAY AREA TOTAL

Q2 '02

5,026

820

767

409

912

729

1,672

220

10,555

Q2 '03

4,743

805

753

335

944

715

1,656

197

10,148

Q2 '04

5,369

842

860

448

936

1,050

1,751

180

11,436

Q2 '05

4,819

763

749

411

858

1,011

1,708

183

10,502

Q2 '06

3,672

690

659

315

799

859

1,228

150

8,372

Q2 '07

2,652

646

657

266

670

923

987

141

6,942

Q2 '08

3,207

518

494

247

655

741

1,130

97

7,089

Q2 '09

4,499

490

440

307

557

513

1,275

123

8,204

Q2 '10

4,328

587

574

336

672

711

1,236

135

8,579

Q2 '11

4,128

576

555

356

682

732

1,167

121

8,317

Q2 '12

3,904

663

668

402

685

871

1,449

168

8,810

Source: Bay Area - SFAR MLS, EBRD, BAREIS July 2, 2012

REGION

Exclusive: Pacific Union’s Interview With Stephen LevyIn late June, Pacific Union International spoke exclusively with Stephen Levy, director and senior economist of the Center for Continuing Study of the California Economy (CCSCE) in Palo Alto, about the state of the economy and the real estate market in the San Francisco Bay Area. Here are the highlights of our interview.

Pacific Union: Housing markets are on fire, but this seems to be consumer-led rather than job-led. What’s your view of the Bay Area versus the state as a whole?

Stephen Levy: For the San Jose and San Francisco metro area, jobs are on fire. The San Jose metro area is the fastest-growing large metro area in the U.S., measured by jobs, and the San Francisco metro area (San Francisco, San Mateo, and Marin counties) is close behind. We’ve seen 2.8 percent (San Francisco) to 3.5 percent (San Jose) growth from May 2011 to May 2012, which is way ahead of the nation.

It’s also IPO-led. It’s job-related, but also tied to the ability to cash out from the successes of LinkedIn, Google, and Facebook.

Is the Bay Area still in economic recovery, or are we transitioning to growth?

Both. The Santa Clara valley and San Francisco are transitioning to catch this new wave of growth. Most of the state and most of the rest of the Bay Area is still struggling with the lack of construction and lack of government jobs; there hasn’t been really any big pickup in home building. They’re definitely in recovery. The only places you could say are in a new growth mode are San Francisco and San Jose.

I wouldn’t worry about the unemployment rate quite as much as the rate of job growth. If it stays up, it’s because people are pouring into the workforce.

How bullish are you on an appreciable drop in the unemployment rate?

Santa Clara is at 8.2 percent, and both San Francisco and San Mateo are below 8 percent already. Those counties will have their own special bonanza. The state is at 10.9 percent unemployment and won’t see 8 percent for three years at an absolute minimum. But the Bay Area will be below 8 percent as a region.

Are you saying that the job-growth rate is a more meaningful economic indicator than unemployment?

Yes, absolutely. My mother, who made clothes, always said, “You’re only as good as your next season.” Our current “next season” is looking pretty good. It’s not just Facebook and LinkedIn, it’s the big run-up in value of Apple, Google … it’s pretty broad.

What do you see happening in Contra Costa County? Many corporations have moved out there and it seems attractive for business.

I think it’s an incredibly attractive area for the same reason it has been for past 15-20 years: It captures both the labor market within the region as well as the labor market close to it in the Central Valley — Stockton and Tracy, and further out. It’s very well placed for the labor force. They’re not doing what San Jose and San Francisco are doing, but for the long-term future they have a great location.

Housing has been on a tear in Marin lately. Is that due to a jobs uptick?

They have low unemployment, but a lot of those folks work in the city. I don’t know about job growth — unemployment tends to affect you where you live, while job growth is where you work.

A Member of Real LivingPacUnion.com

Quarterly Real Estate Report Q2 2012

SAN FRANCISCO



SAN FRANCISCO

San Francisco: Q2 ResultsSingle-family homes and condominiums in San Francisco sold briskly at all price points in the second quarter of 2012. The percentage of homes under contract – homes with a sales agreement in place but the paperwork not yet completed – reached its highest point in more than two years, and sales prices also posted two-year highs.

Homes that didn’t sell last year but were put back on the market in the second quarter ended up selling quickly, and with no price reductions. Turnkey homes sold best – that is, homes in move-in condition. Faced with tight lending regulations, new owners are finding it difficult to get a second line of credit for home repairs and construction, so turnkey homes are desirable.

The inventory of homes for sale remained critically tight in the quarter. The number of properties for sale dropped to roughly one month’s supply in the second quarter, down from three months’ supply of homes one year ago and four months’ supply of condominiums. Predictably, most homes sold only after receiving multiple offers.

Looking Forward: Home sales show no sign of slowing down in the year ahead, and prices will keep rising. In such a competitive market, serious buyers are advised to get pre-qualified loans and be prepared to move quickly to put in a successful bid.

Defining San Francisco: Neighborhoods in San Francisco’s District 1 include the Richmond, Laurel Heights, and Lone Mountain. District 2: the Sunset and Parkside. District 3: Lakeside, Ingleside, and Oceanview. District 4: Forest Hill and Sunnyside. District 5: Haight-Ashbury, the Castro, and Noe Valley. District 6: the Western Addition and Hayes Valley. District 7: the Marina and Pacific Heights. District 8: Civic Center, North Beach, Russian Hill, Financial District. District 9: the Mission, Bernal Heights, Potrero Hill, and SoMa. District 10: Bay View, Excelsior, and Visitacion Valley.

Single Family Homes – Median Sales PriceThe median sales price -- the midpoint in the range of prices paid – rose solidly in the first and second quarters for single-family homes in San Francisco, up more than $190,000 from December to June. In fact, June’s median sales price was the highest in two years -- fresh evidence that the Bay Area’s housing recovery is real and sustained.

Condos – Median Sales PriceThe median sales price saw solid growth in the second quarter for condominiums in San Francisco, up more than $147,000 from January to June – with June’s median price the highest in more than two years.

$744,225 $740,000 $698,810 $654,000 $743,000

$682,500 $610,000 $635,000 $642,500

$715,000 $760,000 $786,500 $800,500

$0 $100,000 $200,000 $300,000 $400,000 $500,000 $600,000 $700,000 $800,000 $900,000

Source: SFAR MLS, July 2, 2012

Jun-11 Jul-11 Aug-11 Sep-11 Oct-11 Nov-11 Dec-11 Jan-12 Feb-12 Mar-12 Apr-12 May-12 Jun-12

Napa County Median Sales Price

$640,000 $607,500 $625,000 $577,500

$644,500 $615,000 $625,000 $605,000 $650,000 $625,000

$708,000 $699,000 $752,500

$0 $100,000 $200,000 $300,000 $400,000 $500,000 $600,000 $700,000 $800,000

Source: BAREIS, as of July 2, 2012




SAN FRANCISCO

Single Family Homes – Months’ Supply of Inventory (Properties Under Contract)

Months’ supply of inventory is a common measure of housing supply, and the latest number for single-family homes in San Francisco shows an extremely tight market: almost one-third the number of homes for sale in June compared with the same month last year. Next to the East Bay counties of Contra Costa and Alameda, San Francisco has the lowest supply of inventory in the Bay Area.

Condos – Months’ Supply of Inventory (Properties Under Contract)The months’ supply of condominiums in San Francisco is even tighter than that for single-family homes. June’s measure, barely a month’s inventory, is nearly one-fourth the supply of condominiums in the city one year earlier.

Single Family Homes – Average Days on the Market (Properties Under Contract)

Average days on the market shows the pace of sales activity. In San Francisco, the number of days it took to sell a single-family home peaked in December at 75 days and has been shrinking every month since then – further evidence of an extremely active real estate market. By June, the average number of days on the market shaved a month off the time it took to sell a home one year earlier.

3.0 3.0 3.0 3.4

2.7 2.4

2.8 2.5

2.0 1.6 1.8

1.2 1.2

0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0



4.1 4.1 3.7

4.7

3.9 3.5 3.5 3.3

2.1 1.7 1.7

1.4 1.1

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0



64 57

62 61 67

71 75 66

61

48 46 44 35

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80





SAN FRANCISCO

Condos – Average Days on the Market (Properties Under Contract)The number of days it took to sell a condominium in San Francisco peaked in December at 100 days and has been shrinking nearly every month since then. By June, the average number of days on the market shaved more than a month off the time it took to sell a home a year earlier.

Single Family Homes – Percentage of Properties Under ContractPercentage of properties under contract is a forward-looking indicator of sales activity, tracking expected home sales before the paperwork is completed and the sale actually closes. In San Francisco, the percentage of single-family homes under contract nearly doubled over the past year, rising in four of the past six months.

Condos – Percentage of Properties Under ContractThe percentage of condominiums under contract in San Francisco more than doubled over the past year, rising in each of the past six months.

83 84 93

74 81

91 100 96

73

58

78

44 46

0

20

40

60

80

100

120



23% 22% 22% 21% 25% 26%

22% 27%

32% 36% 34%

42% 40%

0% 5%

10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45%



17% 17% 19% 16%

19% 20% 17%

22%

30% 34% 35%

39% 43%

0% 5%

10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45%





SAN FRANCISCO

Condos – Sales Price as a Percentage of Original Price(No Price Adjustments)

Solid growth in this benchmark over the past two quarters for San Francisco condominiums underscores the brisk real estate activity in the city.

Single Family Homes – Sales Price as a Percentage of Original Price(No Price Adjustments)

Measuring the sales price as a percentage of the original price, without price adjustments, measures the success of a seller in receiving the hoped-for sale amount, but it also indicates the level of sales activity in a region. Numbers above 100 percent are clear indicators of multiple bids. Steadily rising numbers for single-family homes in San Francisco point to aggressive activity in the market.

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98.3% 99% 99.4% 98.1% 98.6%

97.6%

93.4%

98.9% 100.7% 100.7% 100.6%

102.5% 101.7%

88.0% 90.0% 92.0% 94.0% 96.0% 98.0%

100.0% 102.0% 104.0%



100.1% 100% 100.7%

101.4% 100.9%

98.3%

101.1% 99.9% 100%

102.6% 103.6%

104.6% 105.3%

94.0%

96.0%

98.0%

100.0%

102.0%

104.0%

106.0%





MARIN COUNTY



MARIN COUNTY

Marin County: Q2 ResultsThe second-quarter real estate market in Marin County mirrored the first quarter: extremely strong sales but a limited supply of inventory. We saw multiple offers on most desirable properties, with buyers outnumbering sellers across the county.

Home prices climbed higher in the last quarter but are still below levels at the height of the market. People who bought homes in 2005 and 2006 are choosing not to sell for a reduced price, which helps explain the dearth of homes on the market.

In another continuing trend, first-time buyers had a difficult time competing against investors able to pay cash for properties. The investment market remains strong, with buyers having no trouble finding renters for their properties.

Looking Forward: There’s no sign of a sales slowdown in the third or fourth quarters, putting us on track to post our best year since 2005. And home prices are rising, which should encourage more sellers to join the market and relieve the inventory shortfall.

Defining Marin County: Our real estate markets in Marin County include the cities of Belvedere, Corte Madera, Fairfax, Kentfield, Larkspur, Mill Valley, Novato, Ross, San Anselmo, San Rafael, Sausalito, and Tiburon. Sales data in the charts below includes single-family homes in these communities.

Median Sales PriceThe median sales price -- the midpoint in the range of prices paid – jumped significantly in the second quarter of 2012 in Marin County, up $116,000 from March to June. This is fresh evidence that the Bay Area’s housing recovery is real and sustained.

Months’ Supply of Inventory (Properties Under Contract)Months’ supply of inventory is a common measure of housing supply, and in Marin County the latest number shows an extremely tight market: less than half the number of homes for sale in June compared with the same month last year. The number has been falling since December, even as home sales have been rising.

Source: BAREIS, July 11, 2012


$795,000 $775,000 $787,500

$765,000 $750,000

$725,000

$675,000 $700,000 $702,500

$676,000

$765,000 $760,000

$792,250

$600,000

$650,000

$700,000

$750,000

$800,000

$850,000



Jun-12

4.9 4.5

5.6 5.1 5.1

3.8

4.7

3.6 3

2.1 2.4 2.2 2.3

0

1

2

3

4

5

6



MARIN COUNTY

Average Days on the Market (Properties Under Contract)Average days on the market shows the pace of sales activity. In Marin County, the number of days it took to sell a house peaked in December at 114 days and has been shrinking ever since – further evidence of an extremely active real estate market. By June, the average number of days on the market shaved a month off the time it took to sell a home compared with one year earlier.

Percentage of Properties Under ContractPercentage of properties under contract is a forward-looking indicator of sales activity, tracking expected home sales before the paperwork is completed and the sale actually closes. In Marin County, the percentage of prop-erties under contract nearly doubled over the past year.

Sales Price as Percentage of Original Price (No Price Adjustments)Measuring the sales price as a percentage of the original price, without price adjustments, measures the success of a seller in receiving the hoped-for sale amount, but it also indicates the level of sales activity in a region. Steadily rising numbers in Marin County point to aggressive activity in the market.



Jun-12

87 82

105

81

100 108 114

108

86 81

63 62 58

0

20

40

60

80

100

120



16% 17% 14% 15% 15%

18% 15%

20% 23%

31% 28% 30%

27%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%



Jun-12

96.6%97.4% 97.3% 97.2%

98.3%97.4%

95.6%95.1%

96.2%97.0%

99.1%

97.8%

99.0%

93.0%

94.0%

95.0%

96.0%

97.0%

98.0%

99.0%

100.0%



MARIN COUNTY

Marin Snapshot - Q2 (April - June) 2011 vs. Q2 2012

Single Family Homes. Source: BAREIS, July 11, 2012

Sales Volume Homes Sold Avg. Days on Market Median Price Maximum Price Sold

Time Period

Belvedere

Corte Madera

Fairfax

Kentfield

Larkspur

Mill Valley

Novato

Ross

San Anselmo

San Rafael

Sausalito

Tiburon

Q2 '11

$22,985,000

$26,971,900

$15,263,735

$47,125,500

$22,323,500

$101,704,998

$64,413,857

$32,841,500

$41,573,690

$88,903,232

$32,826,850

$43,725,800

Q2 '12

$30,770,847

$32,976,310

$13,699,200

$47,256,000

$33,603,500

$117,106,857

$93,465,834

$43,825,800

$70,753,747

$89,955,060

$25,317,000

$61,427,000

%change

34%

22%

-10%

0%

51%

15%

45%

33%

70%

1%

-23%

40%

Q2 '11

9

28

25

20

17

84

111

9

44

119

23

23

Q2 '12

11

33

19

23

25

98

160

14

67

132

18

33

%change

22%

18%

-24%

15%

47%

17%

44%

56%

52%

11%

-22%

43%

Q2 '11

135

60

68

51

70

74

97

78

76

88

85

121

Q2 '12

102

64

63

50

35

65

73

82

66

82

59

82

%change

-24%

7%

-7%

-2%

-50%

-12%

-25%

5%

-13%

-7%

-31%

-32%

Q2 '11

$2,550,000

$937,500

$567,000

$2,140,000

$1,225,000

$942,500

$540,500

$2,750,000

$842,670

$665,000

$1,245,000

$1,755,000

Q2 '12

$2,099,000

$901,000

$715,000

$2,050,000

$1,281,000

$1,037,500

$546,000

$2,362,500

$860,000

$634,000

$1,335,500

$1,490,000

%change

-18%

-4%

26%

-4%

5%

10%

1%

-14%

2%

-5%

7%

-15%

Q2 '11

$4,000,000

$1,700,000

$1,600,000

$5,035,000

$2,900,000

$4,000,000

$1,350,000

$8,750,000

$2,235,000

$2,500,000

$3,200,000

$3,425,000

Q2 '12

$5,200,000

$3,200,000

$1,639,900

$4,720,000

$2,600,000

$3,300,000

$2,050,000

$11,500,000

$3,000,000

$2,150,000

$3,260,000

$7,000,000

%change

30%

88%

2%

-6%

-10%

-18%

52%

31%

34%

-14%

2%

104%



NAPA COUNTY



NAPA COUNTY

Napa County: Q2 ResultsWith sales climbing higher, month over month, and prices rising, too, Napa County real estate posted solid growth in the second quarter of 2012. Sales would have been even higher, in fact, except for the limited inventory of homes on the market – a problem throughout the Bay Area and beyond as sellers hold off listing their homes in the hope of higher prices down the road.

We’re starting to see those higher prices materialize. Home prices in the second quarter were up 2.5 percent from the first quarter, countywide, although in some communities our real estate professionals saw home prices jump 10 percent or more. Looking back to the fourth quarter of 2011, prices are up 6.4 percent.

With the limited number of homes for sale, almost every home priced under $500,000 received multiple offers in the second quarter. In the over-$1 million market, those homes priced in line with their appraised values sold significantly better than those at premium prices.

Looking Forward: Coming off a strong second quarter, the third quarter looks to be even more successful. July and August will see a seasonal slowdown due to vacations, but year-over-year sales growth will continue unabated. We expect home prices to continue rising, too, and the supply of homes for sale to slowly expand.

Defining Napa County: Our real estate markets in Napa County include the cities of Angwin, Calistoga, Napa, Oakville, Rutherford, St. Helena, and Yountville. Sales data in the charts below includes all single-family homes in Napa County.

Median Sales PriceThe median sales price -- the midpoint in the range of prices paid – rose solidly in the both the first and second quarters in Napa County, up 6 percent in the second quarter of 2012 from the fourth quarter of 2011. This is fresh evidence that the Bay Area’s housing recovery is real and sustained.

Months’ Supply of Inventory (Properties Under Contract)Months’ supply of inventory is a common measure of housing supply, and in Napa County the latest number shows a tight market: less than half the number of homes for sale in June compared with one year earlier. The number has been falling since October, even as home sales have been rising.

Source: EBRD, July 11, 2012Source: BAREIS, July 11, 2012


$343,500

$327,550

$355,000

$340,000

$333,000 $327,450

$333,500

$345,000

$337,500 $340,000

$354,000 $347,625

$352,000

$310,000 $315,000 $320,000 $325,000 $330,000 $335,000 $340,000 $345,000 $350,000 $355,000 $360,000



6.2 6.5 6 6.3 6.6

4.9 5.6

3.9 3.7 3.1 3.1 2.8 2.5

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7



NAPA COUNTY

Average Days on the Market (Properties Under Contract)Average days on the market shows the pace of sales activity. In Napa County, the number of days it took to sell a house peaked in November at 135 days and has been gradually shrinking ever since – further evidence of an extremely active real estate market. By June, the average number of days on the market shaved more than a month off the time it took to sell a home compared with the same month last year.

Percentage of Properties Under ContractPercentage of properties under contract is a forward-looking indicator of sales activity, tracking expected home sales before the paperwork is completed and the sale actually closes. In Napa County, the percentage of properties under contract more than doubled over the past year.

Sales Price as Percentage of Original Price (No Price Adjustments)Measuring the sales price as a percentage of the original price, without price adjustments, measures the success of a seller in receiving the hoped-for sale amount, but it also indicates the level of sales activity in a region. Consistently high numbers in the past two quarters in Napa County point to aggressive activity in the market.



13% 13% 13% 13% 12% 15%

13%

19% 19%

24% 23% 25% 27%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%



118 107

93

127

102

135

101

132

105 117

96 102 83

0 20 40 60 80

100 120 140 160



94.2%

98.2%

93.2%

97.9%96.2%

87.6%

95.1%94.0%

96.1% 96.9%95.6%

97.4%96.4%

82.0% 84.0% 86.0% 88.0% 90.0% 92.0% 94.0% 96.0% 98.0%

100.0%


SONOMA COUNTYQuarterly Real Estate Report Q2 2012



SONOMA COUNTY

Sonoma County: Q2 ResultsWhat a difference a year makes: From June 2011 to June 2012, the median sales price of homes in Sonoma County rose 11 percent, while the supply of homes for sale shrank by two-thirds. The percentage of homes under contract jumped 125 percent, while the average number of days on the market shrank by 40 percent.

The numbers tell a story of a housing market growing aggressively while faced with limited supply. Most sales in the second quarter were for homes priced under $400,000, but the quarter also saw significant activity among homes priced from $400,000 to $3 million – a market that had been mostly dormant in recent years. We saw multiple offers on virtually all reasonably priced homes priced below $1 million – the lower the price, the greater the likelihood of multiple offers.

In another encouraging sign, we saw fewer bank-owned homes and other distressed properties for sale in the quarter, and more equity sales – enabling sellers to rejoin the market and buy something else.

Looking Forward: The real estate market has not yet recovered from its 2008 collapse, but the coming year will see solid progress in that direction. We fully expect home prices to continue rising, which will encourage more sellers to put their homes on the market, creating a healthy, more balanced market. The market for $1 million-plus second homes will continue to expand, a product of the Bay Area’s strong economic recovery.

Defining Sonoma County: Our real estate markets in Sonoma County include the cities of Cotati, Healdsburg, Penngrove, Petaluma, Rohnert Park, Santa Rosa, Sebastopol, and Windsor. Sales data in the charts below includes all single-family homes in Sonoma County.

Median Sales PriceThe median sales price -- the midpoint in the range of prices paid – rose solidly in the second quarter in Sonoma County to their highest level in nearly two years. This is fresh evidence that the Bay Area’s housing recovery is real and sustained.

Months’ Supply of Inventory (Properties Under Contract)Months’ supply of inventory is a common measure of housing supply, and the latest number for Sonoma County shows an extremely tight market: less than half the number of homes for sale in June compared with one year earlier. The number has been falling for nearly a year, even as home sales have been rising.



$319,900 $325,000

$329,000

$343,000

$310,000 $316,000 $315,000

$322,500

$312,950 $318,750

$345,000

$328,500

$345,000

$290,000

$300,000

$310,000

$320,000

$330,000

$340,000

$350,000



4.7 5.1

4.6 4.8 4.3 4.2 3.9

3 2.6 2.3 2.1 1.8 1.8

0

1

2

3

4

5

6



SONOMA COUNTY

Average Days on the Market (Properties Under Contract)Average days on the market shows the pace of sales activity. In Sonoma County, the number of days it took to sell a house peaked in January at 132 days and has been shrinking every month since then – further evidence of an extremely active real estate market. By June, the average days on the market shaved more than a month off the time it took to sell a home compared with one year earlier.

Percentage of Properties Under ContractPercentage of properties under contract is a forward-looking indicator of sales activity, tracking expected home sales before the paperwork is completed and the sale actually closes. In Sonoma County, the percentage of properties under contract doubled over the past year.

Sales Price as Percentage of Original Price (No Price Adjustments)Measuring the sales price as a percentage of the original price, without price adjustments, measures the success of a seller in receiving the hoped-for sale amount, but it also indicates the level of sales activity in a region. A solid increase in the second quarter of 2012 points to aggressive activity in the market.



102 100 104 113 116 116 117

132 112

105

81 71

61

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140



97.4%98.1%

97.6% 97.2% 97.5% 97.4%98.1%

96.6%

98.6%

95.5%

96.7%

99.7%98.7%

93.0% 94.0% 95.0% 96.0% 97.0% 98.0% 99.0%

100.0% 101.0%



16% 16% 17% 16% 17% 18% 18%

23% 26%

28% 31% 33% 33%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%



SONOMA VALLEY



SONOMA VALLEY

Sonoma Valley: Q2 ResultsThe Sonoma Valley communities of Glen Ellen, Kenwood, and Sonoma had an extremely active second quarter, with a greater percentage of properties under contract than we’ve seen in more than a year – this despite a shrinking supply of homes on the market. As a result, homes sold in June 2012 in half the time it took one year earlier.

Homes selling for less than $500,000 were the most active in the quarter, with many homes getting multiple bids before they sold. Homes selling for $500,000 to $1 million significantly picked up the pace, too, and the $1 million-plus market attracted interest it hasn’t seen in quite a while. Investors were increasingly active in the area, and also second-home buyers in all price ranges.

Home prices started to rise by the end of the second quarter, although they remain below the levels reached in 2006 and 2007. Sellers who sold their properties without price adjustments received an average of 97 percent or more of their asking price by the end of the quarter, a marked improvement from previous quarters.

Looking Forward: If the Bay Area economy continues at its current strong pace, the Sonoma Valley will see increasing real estate activity through the end of the year. Prices will continue to rise, hopefully encouraging more sellers to step off the sidelines and help create a more balanced market. First-time buyers will continue to face competition from investors in the under-$500,000 market and may find themselves on the losing side of bidding wars more than once.

Defining Sonoma Valley: Our real estate markets in Sonoma Valley include the cities of Glen Ellen, Kenwood, and Sonoma. Sales data in the charts below refer to all residential properties – including single-family homes, condominiums and farmland – in these communities.

Median Sales PriceThe median sales price -- the midpoint in the range of prices paid – jumped higher in June in the Sonoma Valley to its highest level in nearly a year. If prices continue rising, as expected, it will likely encourage more sellers to put their homes on the market.

Months’ Supply of Inventory (Properties Under Contract)Months’ supply of inventory is a common measure of housing supply, and the latest number for the Sonoma Valley shows a tight market: less than half the number of homes for sale in June compared with one year earlier. The number has fallen significantly in the first half of 2012, even as home sales have been rising.



5.8

8.1

5.1 6.1

5 5.9

8

3.7 3.8 3.3 3

2.1 2.7

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9



$394,250 $345,000

$515,000

$410,000 $367,500 $395,000 $395,000 $399,500 $415,000 $392,500 $367,000 $392,500

$475,000

$100,000

0

$200,000

$300,000

$400,000

$500,000

$600,000



SONOMA VALLEY

Average Days on the Market (Properties Under Contract)Average days on the market shows the pace of sales activity. In the Sonoma Valley, the number of days it took to sell a house peaked in December at 156 days and has been shrinking nearly every month since then – further evidence of an extremely active real estate market. By June, the average days on the market shaved two months off the time it took to sell a home compared with one year earlier.

Percentage of Properties Under ContractPercentage of properties under contract is a forward-looking indicator of sales activity, tracking expected home sales before the paperwork is completed and the sale actually closes. In the Sonoma Valley, the percentage of properties under contract nearly doubled over the past year.

Sales Price as Percentage of Original Price (No Price Adjustments)Measuring the sales price as a percentage of the original price, without price adjustments, measures the success of a seller in receiving the hoped-for sale amount, but it also indicates the level of sales activity in a region. Strong numbers in the Sonoma Valley’s second quarter point to aggressive activity in the market.



14% 10%

15% 13%

16% 13%

10%

20% 19% 22% 24%

30%

25%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%



96.3%

95.2%

96.2%

97.1%

95.6%

98.3%97.6%

94.7%

98.5%

94.7%95.2%

98.2%97.6%

92.0%

93.0%

94.0%

95.0%

96.0%

97.0%

98.0%

99.0%



134 115

125 131 126

98

156

130 128 133

108

70 69

0 20 40 60 80

100 120 140 160 180



EAST BAY



EAST BAY

East Bay: Q2 ResultsEast Bay home prices turned a corner in the second quarter of 2012, with selected communities in Alameda County posting median sale prices up 28 percent from the previous quarter. Also, final sale prices exceeded the original asking prices for each of the past five months.

The number of homes sold also increased in the second quarter, although buyers continued to outnumber sellers. We saw multiple offers on more than 65 percent of homes sold during the quarter, making for an extremely active market. Many of the buyers came from San Francisco. After being priced out of the market there, they found homes much more affordable in the East Bay.

Investors remained active in the market, with one- to four-unit buildings in high demand.

Looking Forward: Rising home prices hopefully will lure more sellers into the market in the coming months, creating a healthy, balanced market and driving home sales to their highest levels in since 2005. Buyer demand is certainly strong enough to absorb the new inventory; in fact, buyers have been frustrated in recent months competing against investors able to make all-cash offers for a limited supply of homes.

Defining East Bay: Our real estate markets in the East Bay region include Oakland ZIP codes 94602, 94609, 94610, 94611, 94618, 94619, and 94705; Albany; Berkeley; El Cerrito; Kensington; and Piedmont. Sales data in the charts below includes single-family homes in these communities.

Median Sales PriceThe median sales price -- the midpoint in the range of prices paid – rose dramatically in the second quarter in the East Bay, up more than $220,000 from January to June -- fresh evidence that the Bay Area’s housing recovery is real and sustained.

Months’ Supply of Inventory (Properties Under Contract)Months’ supply of inventory is a common measure of housing supply, and the latest number for the East Bay shows an extremely tight market: barely one-third the number of homes for sale in June compared with one year earlier. The region had the tightest housing market in the Bay Area.


Source: EBRD, July 11, 2012

2.7

3.5 3.1

3.8

2.7 2.5 2.8 2.9 3.1

1.6 1.7 1.2 1

0 0.5

1 1.5

2 2.5

3 3.5

4



$628,500 $668,500

$565,000 $571,500 $537,500 $560,000 $580,000

$427,000 $517,500 $520,000

$590,000 $592,500 $649,500

$0 $100,000 $200,000 $300,000 $400,000 $500,000 $600,000 $700,000 $800,000



EAST BAY

Average Days on the Market (Properties Under Contract)Average days on the market shows the pace of sales activity. In our East Bay communities, the number of days it took to sell a house peaked in December at 61 days and has been shrinking nearly every month since then – further evidence of an extremely active real estate market. By June, the average number of days on the market shaved a month off the time it took to sell a home compared with December.

Percentage of Properties Under ContractPercentage of properties under contract is a forward-looking indicator of sales activity, tracking expected home sales before the paperwork is completed and the sale actually closes. In the East Bay, the percentage of proper-ties under contract nearly doubled over the past year.

Sales Price as Percentage of Original Price (No Price Adjustments)Measuring the sales price as a percentage of the original price, without price adjustments, measures the success of a seller in receiving the hoped-for sale amount, but it also indicates the level of sales activity in a region. Num-bers above 100 percent are clear indicators of multiple bids. Steadily rising numbers in the East Bay point to aggressive activity in the market.



34 42 43

36 38 40

61

49 41

33 38

28 27

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70



24% 20% 21% 19%

23% 25% 22% 23% 23%

36% 36%

42% 44%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%



101.0%101.8%

99.5% 99.0%

102.2%

99.7%100.8%

99.3%

101.8% 101.6%103.1%

105.4%106.4%

94.0%

96.0%

98.0%

100.0%

102.0%

104.0%

106.0%

108.0%



EAST BAY

East Bay SnapshotQ2 (April - June) 2011 vs. Q2 2012

Source: EBRD, June 30, 2012. *ZIP codes 94602, 94609, 94610, 94611, 94618, 94619, 94705.

Sales Volume Homes Sold Avg. Days on Market Median Price Average Price

Time Period

Albany

Berkeley

El Cerrito

Kensington

Oakland*

Piedmont

Q2 '11

$12,569,400

$110,122,100

$27,811,275

$10,097,000

$175,737,774

$64,658,048

Q2 '12

$10,735,900

$105,600,520

$30,319,100

$15,640,500

$229,621,503

$58,825,625

%change

-15%

-4%

9%

55%

31%

-9%

Q2 '11

21

153

54

14

292

42

Q2 '12

20

155

65

20

359

44

%change

-5%

1%

20%

43%

23%

5%

Q2 '11

29

29

37

27

42

20

Q2 '12

28

29

26

22

31

13

%change

-3%

0%

-30%

-19%

-26%

-35%

Q2 '11

$535,000

$655,000

$486,600

$702,500

$557,000

$1,350,500

Q2 '12

$527,500

$632,000

$445,000

$738,000

$619,000

$1,257,500

%change

-1%

-4%

-9%

5%

11%

-7%

Q2 '11

$598,542

$719,752

$515,023

$721,214

$601,841

$1,539,477

Q2 '12

$536,795

$681,293

$466,447

$782,025

$639,614

$1,336,946

%change

-10%

-5%

-9%

8%

6%

-13%

Oakland Neighborhoods: Price Changes SnapshotQ2 (April - June) 2011 vs. Q2 2012


Average Price <$800,000 Average Price $800,000 +

Time Period

Montclair/Joaquin Miller

Crocker Highlands/Grand Lake

Rockridge/Claremont

Glenview/Oakmore

Laurel/Dimond

Redwood Heights/Lincoln Heights

Crestmont/Ridgemont/Skyline

Temescal/Piedmont Ave.

Q2 '11

$551,738

$557,647

$677,768

$651,550

$355,000

$496,449

$682,200

$493,371

Q2 '12

$612,501

$611,777

$629,761

$619,346

$309,000

$515,173

$564,750

$482,700

%change

11%

10%

-7%

-5%

-13%

4%

-17%

-2%

Q2 '11

$1,032,187

$1,021,722

$1,097,602

$836,333

n/a

n/a

$1,194,000

$825,000

Q2 '12

$1,083,111

$1,064,134

$1,067,458

$1,179,500

n/a

n/a

$951,800

$830,000

%change

5%

4%

-3%

41%

n/a

n/a

-20%

1%

East Bay Price Range SnapshotQ2 (April - June) 2011 vs. Q2 2012

Source: EBRD, June 30, 2012


Time Period

Under $500K

Over $500K

$500K - $1M

Over $1M

Q2 '11

$71,250,494

$332,745,103

$197,296,409

$136,448,694

Q2 '12

$77,939,919

$374,303,229

$239,713,352

$136,589,877

%change

9%

12%

21%

0%

Q2 '11

210

372

281

92

Q2 '12

231

435

338

99

%change

10%

17%

20%

8%

Q2 '11

46

30

31

27

Q2 '12

42

21

21

21

%change

-9%

-30%

-32%

-22%

Q2 '11

$352,250

$745,500

$699,000

$1,300,500

Q2 '12

$350,000

$755,000

$688,000

$1,305,000

%change

-1%

1%

-2%

0%

Q2 '11

$339,288

$894,476

$702,122

$1,483,137

Q2 '12

$337,402

$860,467

$709,211

$1,379,695

%change

-1%

-4%

1%

-7%



CONTRA COSTA COUNTY



CONTRA COSTA COUNTY

Contra Costa County: Q2 ResultsContra Costa County continued to see strong home sales in the second quarter of 2012, and the numbers would have been even higher if not for the limited inventory of homes on the market.

Sellers remained largely on the sidelines during the quarter, and the shortage of homes, coupled with eager buyers, made for predictable results: multiple offers on virtually all fairly priced properties below $1.3 million. But buyers, faced with tight lending policies from banks, generally didn’t bid on inflated listings. (Investor-buyers, able to pay cash, were the exception.) Homes priced significantly beyond their appraised value sat on the market longer.

The number of homes under contract — homes with a sales agreement in place but the paperwork not yet completed – continued to climb throughout the quarter. Significantly, the median sales price also rose in the second quarter, compared with the previous quarter.

Looking Forward: With growing confidence in the economic recovery, we expect to see home prices continue rising throughout the rest of the year, gradually attracting more sellers to put their homes on the market. Sales will slow during the vacation months of July and August, as is typical, and then pick up again at the end of the third quarter and into the fourth. We remain on track to see our best year in at least five years.

Defining Contra Costa County: Our real estate markets in Contra Costa County include the cities of Alamo, Blackhawk, Concord, Danville, Diablo, Lafayette, Martinez, Moraga, Orinda, Pleasant Hill, San Ramon, and Walnut Creek. Sales data in the charts below includes single-family homes in these communities.

Median Sales PriceThe median sales price -- the midpoint in the range of prices paid – has been rising every month since January in Contra Costa County. By June, the median sales price had jumped 68 percent in five months.

Months’ Supply of Inventory (Properties Under Contract)Months’ supply of inventory is a common measure of housing supply, and in Contra Costa County the latest number shows an extremely tight market: less than one-third the number of homes for sale in June than one year earlier. Contra Costa has the second-tightest housing market in the Bay Area.



$670,000 $625,000

$577,000 $604,750 $545,000 $530,000 $499,500

$415,000 $505,500

$582,450 $637,000

$685,000 $697,000

$0 $100,000 $200,000 $300,000 $400,000 $500,000 $600,000 $700,000 $800,000



3.4 3.5 3.5 4

3.6 3.2

3.5

2.9

2.1 1.6 1.7

1.3 1.1

0 0.5

1 1.5

2 2.5

3 3.5

4 4.5



CONTRA COSTA COUNTY

Average Days on the Market (Properties Under Contract)Average days on the market shows the pace of sales activity. In Contra Costa County, the number of days it took to sell a house peaked in December at 60 days and has been shrinking ever since – further evidence of an extremely active real estate market. By June, the average number of days on the market shaved more than two weeks off the time it took to sell a home compared with one year earlier.

Percentage of Properties Under ContractPercentage of properties under contract is a forward-looking indicator of sales activity, tracking expected home sales before the paperwork is completed and the sale actually closes. In Contra Costa County, the percentage of properties under contract doubled over the past year, rising in seven of the past nine months.

Sales Price as Percentage of Original Price (No Price Adjustments)Measuring the sales price as a percentage of the original price, without price adjustments, measures the success of a seller in receiving the hoped-for sale amount, but it also indicates the level of sales activity in a region. Num-bers above 100 percent are clear indicators of multiple bids. Steadily rising numbers in Contra Costa County point to aggressive activity in the market.



21% 20% 20% 18% 19% 21% 20% 24%

31% 36% 35%

40% 43%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%



47 45 46 51 51 51

60

51 50

41 38 31 29

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70



98.6% 98.6%

96.2%

97.5%97.1%

96.3%

97.6%97.9%

98.6% 98.4% 98.6%

99.4% 99.4%

94.0%

95.0%

96.0%

97.0%

98.0%

99.0%

100.0%



CONTRA COSTA COUNTY

Contra Costa County Snapshot - Q2 (April - June) 2011 vs. Q2 2012



Time Period

Alamo, Blackkhawk, Danville, Diablo, San Ramon($1M and below)

Lafayette, Moraga, Orinda($1M and below)

Concord, Martinez,Pleasant Hill, Walnut Creek($1M and below)

Alamo, Blackkhawk,Danville, Diablo, San Ramon(over $1M)

Lafayette, Moraga, Orinda(over $1M)

Concord, Martinez, Pleasant Hill, Walnut Creek(over $1M)

Q2 '11

$244,072,060

$81,206,671

$243,172,701

$128,748,424

$104,759,863

$243,172,701

Q2 '12

$283,790,486

$85,790,690

$285,631,777

$198,303,237

$129,535,045

$285,631,777

%change

16%

6%

17%

54%

24%

17%

Q2 '11

337

106

610

95

75

610

Q2 '12

390

114

653

145

93

653

%change

16%

8%

7%

53%

24%

7%

Q2 '11

41

41

46

65

34

46

Q2 '12

44

34

31

53

21

31

%change

7%

-17%

-33%

-18%

-38%

-33%

Q2 '11

$745,000

$796,000

$350,000

$1,185,000

$1,312,000

$350,000

Q2 '12

$745,000

$779,447

$385,000

$1,220,000

$1,289,500

$385,000

%change

0%

-2%

10%

3%

-2%

10%

Q2 '11

$724,249

$766,100

$398,643

$1,355,246

$1,396,798

$398,643

Q2 '12

$727,667

$752,549

$437,414

$1,367,608

$1,392,849

$437,414

%change

0%

-2%

10%

1%

0%

10%

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