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Cushman & Wakefield Winnipeg Q2 2015 – Winnipeg Office Market Beat
Citation preview
Cushman & Wakefield
Licensed to CWL Realty Inc.
200-260 St. Mary Avenue
Winnipeg, MB R3C 0M6
www.cushmanwakefield.com/knowledge
For more information, contact:
Wayne Sato, Vice President, Office
204-934-6207
The market terms and definitions in this report are based on NAIOP standards. No
warranty or representation, express or implied, is made to the accuracy or completeness
of the information contained herein, and same is submitted subject to errors, omissions,
change of price, rental or other conditions, withdrawal without notice, and to any special
listing conditions imposed by our principals.
© 2015 Cushman & Wakefield, Inc. All rights reserved.
1
PROVINCIAL ECONOMIC OVERVIEW
Manitoba’s Real GDP growth is projected to be
2.3% in 2015, a solid growth rate which ranks
third best among all Canadian provinces. The
first two quarters of 2015, saw the labour force
gain 16,000 entrants and the unemployment
rate hit 5.6%, third lowest among all provinces (Source: RBC
Economics, BMO Capital Markets Economics).
OVERALL VACANCY RATE UP AGAIN IN Q2 2015
Winnipeg’s overall office vacancy rate rose to 9.2% in the second
quarter of 2015, up from 8.7% in Q1 2015.
The class A CBD vacancy rate rose in Q2 2015 to 5.3% from 4.1% in
the previous quarter. The increase in vacancy in the class A CBD
market was primarily due to 51,346 square feet (sf) of headlease
space becoming available at 200 Graham Avenue. The previous
federal government tenant relocated to another building in the
downtown market.
The class B CBD overall vacancy rate was 10.9% at the end of the
second quarter of 2015 – an increase of 0.5 percentage points from
the previous quarter. Several smaller blocks of space became available
on Portage Avenue, which continues to see high rates of vacancy.
The class C CBD overall vacancy remained unchanged at 9.8% at the
end of Q2 2015. The Class C CBD market continues to be an
attractive option for tenants who are looking for affordable office
space even though net asking rents in class C have increased from
$10.49 per square foot (psf) a year ago to $10.92 psf in Q2 2015.
In the suburban market, Winnipeg’s overall vacancy rate rose to
10.0% in Q2 2015, up marginally from the preceding quarter.
The class A suburban market vacancy rate remained unchanged at
13.6% during Q2 2015. This market class has been relatively quiet
over the last four quarters but is expected to improve as space in this
class remains highly desirable.
In the class B suburban market, the overall vacancy rate decreased
slightly to 6.3% this quarter, down from 6.5% last quarter. Building
Ten in Tuxedo Busines Park is now completely leased, as 3,000 sf was
absorbed by Business Development Bank of Canada.
The class C suburban vacancy rate rose to 12.9% during the second
quarter of 2015, up 0.9 percentage points from the previous quarter.
Supply far outstrips demand in this market class. Nonetheless, the
vacancy rate is expected to remain steady for the remainder of the
year.
OUTLOOK
A strong economic forecast tied with new residential construction
projects in Winnipeg’s downtown core are positively impacting the
office market in the CBD. 311 Portage Avenue at Centrepoint
welcomed the occupancy of Stantec Inc. and iQmetrix over the past
two quarters as the office component of this new development was
90% leased at opening. In addition, it is anticipated that ground
breaking of the $400-million True North Square development project
will occur this year, which is expected to encourage new businesses
to relocate into this growing market.
STATS ON THE GO
Q2 2014 Q2 2015
Y-O-Y CHANGE
12 MONTH FORECAST
Overall Vacancy 9.1% 9.2% 0.1 pp
Direct Net Asking Rents (psf/yr) $12.64 $13.32 5.4%
YTD Absorption (sf) (79,147) (53,938) 25,209
DIRECT RENTAL VS. VACANCY RATES
ABSORPTION
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
$0.00
$5.00
$10.00
$15.00
$20.00
$25.00
$30.00
2011 2012 2013 2014 Q2 2015
psf
/yr
TOTAL GROSS RENT OVERALL VACANCY RATE
-1
145
-121
151
-30
28
103
-27
-7
-24
-150
-100
-50
0
50
100
150
200
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 YTD
sf (
thousa
nds)
CBD Non-CBD
Q2 2015 WINNIPEG, MANITOBA
OFFICE SNAPSHOT MARKETBEAT
A Cushman & Wakefield Alliance Research Publication
Cushman & Wakefield
Licensed to CWL Realty Inc.
200-260 St. Mary Avenue
Winnipeg, MB R3C 0M6
www.cushmanwakefield.com/knowledge
For more information, contact:
Wayne Sato, Vice President, Office
204-934-6207
The market terms and definitions in this report are based on NAIOP standards. No
warranty or representation, express or implied, is made to the accuracy or completeness
of the information contained herein, and same is submitted subject to errors, omissions,
change of price, rental or other conditions, withdrawal without notice, and to any special
listing conditions imposed by our principals.
© 2015 Cushman & Wakefield, Inc. All rights reserved.
2
WINNIPEG, MANITOBA
SUBMARKET INVENTORY OVERALL VACANCY
RATE
DIRECT VACANCY
RATE
UNDER CONSTRUCTION
YTD CONSTRUCTION COMPLETIONS
CURRENT QUARTER
ABSORPTION
YTD OVERALL
ABSORPTION
WTD. AVG. NET
RENTAL RATE*
WTD. AVG. GROSS
RENTAL RATE*
Class A 2,919,540 5.3% 5.2% 0 81,069 (37,155) 18,793 $19.56 $35.23
Class B 3,587,840 10.9% 10.7% 0 0 (17,341) (55,716) $14.02 $27.28
Class C 3,827,716 9.8% 9.8% 0 0 1,657 6,883 $10.92 $20.11
CBD TOTAL 10,335,096 8.9% 8.8% 0 81,069 (52,389) (30,040) $13.67 $25.65
Class A 202,385 13.6% 13.6% 0 0 0 (6,500) $21.24 $30.31
Class B 1,407,068 6.3% 4.5% 0 0 2,792 (3,379) $12.12 $19.71
Class C 1,535,457 12.9% 12.1% 0 0 (12,633) (14,019) $11.88 $19.35
SUBURBAN TOTAL 3,144,910 10.0% 8.8% 0 0 (9,841) (23,898) $11.92 $19.41
WINNIPEG TOTALS 13,480,006 9.2% 8.8% 0 81,069 (62,680) (53,938) $13.32 $24.43
* RENTAL RATES REFLECT ASKING $PSF/YEAR
MARKET HIGHLIGHTS
SIGNIFICANT Q2 2015 LEASE TRANSACTIONS SUBMARKET TENANT BUILDING CLASS SQUARE FEET
201 Portage Avenue Central Telus A 4,950
191 Lombard Avenue Central Dash Agency C 3,708
Building Ten- Tuxedo Business Park Suburban Business Development Bank of Canada B 3,000
SIGNIFICANT Q2 2015 SALE TRANSACTIONS SUBMARKET BUYER PURCHASE PRICE SQUARE FEET
1080 Kingsbury Avenue Suburban Private $650,000 5,187
1108 St. James Street Suburban Private $1,980,000 23,184
SIGNIFICANT Q2 2015 CONSTRUCTION
COMPLETIONS SUBMARKET MAJOR TENANT COMPLETION DATE BUILDING SQUARE FEET
N/A
SIGNIFICANT PROJECTS UNDER
CONSTRUCTION SUBMARKET MAJOR TENANT COMPLETION DATE BUILDING SQUARE FEET
N/A