Quantifying natural andQuantifying natural andtechnological disaster impacttechnological disaster impact

Methodology and applicationsMethodology and applications

CRED, University of Louvain, BelgiumCRED, University of Louvain, Belgium

Femke VosFemke Vos

2 July 2009 – Copenhagen2 July 2009 – Copenhagen

OverviewOverview

• RESEARCH FRAMEWORK AT CRED• EM-DAT DATABASE• GLOBAL AND EUROPEAN DISASTER STATISTICS• MICRODIS• PRIORITIES IN RESEARCH• ONGOING ACTIVITIES AND FUTURE PROJECTS

CREDCRED

NaturalDisaster

Research

CivilConflict

Research

Training and Capacity Building(e.g. APHES Summer Course)

Training and Capacity Building(e.g. APHES Summer Course)

Database and information support(e.g. EM-DAT, CE-DAT)

Database and information support(e.g. EM-DAT, CE-DAT)

Emergency Events Database, created in 1988Emergency Events Database, created in 1988

Project funded by OFDA/USAIDProject funded by OFDA/USAID

Occurrence and impacts of over 18,000 natural andOccurrence and impacts of over 18,000 natural and technological disasters from 1900 until presenttechnological disasters from 1900 until present

ObjectiveObjective: : Provide evidence-base to humanitarian andProvide evidence-base to humanitarian and development actors at national and international levels:development actors at national and international levels:

scientific research with a development agendascientific research with a development agenda

What is EM-DAT?What is EM-DAT?

• Transparent conventions regarding Transparent conventions regarding data sources and internal protocoldata sources and internal protocol

• Standard data templates Standard data templates

• Global and coherent dataGlobal and coherent data

EM-DATEM-DAT

•Disaster Number (Unique ID)

•Disaster Group/ Type/ Subtype

•Name

•Criteria

Disaster information

•Country/ Continent/ Region

•Location

•Latitude/ Longitude

Geographical information

•Year

•Start and End dates

•Local time

Temporal information

•Origin

•Associated Disasters

•Magnitude / Scale

Characteristics

•OFDA Response

•Request for Int. Assistance

•Declaration State of Emergency

•Aid Contribution

International appeal

•Deaths•Injured•Homeless•Affected•Total Affected=Injured+Homeless+Affected

Human impact

•Estimated Damages

(direct/ indirect; by sector)

•Insured Losses

•Reconstruction Cost

Economic impact

•Impact on Infrastructure:houses, bridges, hospitals, crops,roads …. damaged/ destroyed

•Sectors affected: Industry,Sanitation,Communication, …

Sector impact

Source: EM-DAT - The OFDA/CRED International Disaster Database Source: EM-DAT - The OFDA/CRED International Disaster Database

EM-DAT standard data templateEM-DAT standard data template

Natural disasters in EM-DATNatural disasters in EM-DAT1950-20081950-2008

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

Num

ber

of n

atur

al d

isas

ters

Years

Storms

Flood, Mass mov. Wet

Earthquake, Volcano, Mass mov. Dry

Drought, Wildfire, Extreme temp.

Epidemics, Insect infestations

OFDA created (1964)

CRED created & OFDAbegan compiling (1973)

EM-DAT created (1988)

Source: EM-DAT - The OFDA/CRED International Disaster Database

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

Num

ber

of n

atur

al d

isas

ters

Years

Storms

Flood, Mass mov. Wet

Earthquake, Volcano, Mass mov. Dry

Drought, Wildfire, Extreme temp.

Epidemics, Insect infestations

OFDA created (1964)

CRED created & OFDAbegan compiling (1973)

EM-DAT created (1988)

Natural disasters in EM-DATNatural disasters in EM-DAT1950-20081950-2008

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

Num

ber

of n

atur

al d

isas

ters

Years

Storms

Flood, Mass mov. Wet

Earthquake, Volcano, Mass mov. Dry

Drought, Wildfire, Extreme temp.

Epidemics, Insect infestations

OFDA created (1964)

CRED created & OFDAbegan compiling (1973)

EM-DAT created (1988)

Source: http://dotearth.blogs.nytimes.com/2009/02/23/gore-pulls-slide-of-disaster-trends/?ref=science

Al Gore quote: Al Gore quote: ““Human-driven climate change is creating weather-related disasters that Human-driven climate change is creating weather-related disasters that are completely unprecedented”are completely unprecedented”

Source: EM-DAT - The OFDA/CRED International Disaster Database

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

Num

ber

of n

atur

al d

isas

ters

Years

Storms

Flood, Mass mov. Wet

Earthquake, Volcano, Mass mov. Dry

Drought, Wildfire, Extreme temp.

Epidemics, Insect infestations

OFDA created (1964)

CRED created & OFDAbegan compiling (1973)

EM-DAT created (1988)

Where do disasters occur & how often? Where do disasters occur & how often? 1989-20081989-2008

  Occurrence KilledAffected (million)

Econ damage (US$ billion)

Africa 874 23,735 233 18Americas 1,628 87,145 108 727Asia 2,521 1,011,721 3,858 907Europe 953 88,671 29 270Oceania 272 3,560 18 23Total 6,248 1,214,832 4,247 1,946

  Occurrence KilledAffected (million)

Econ damage (US$ billion)

Africa 14.0% 2.0% 5.5% 0.9%Americas 26.1% 7.2% 2.5% 37.4%Asia 40.3% 83.3% 90.9% 46.6%Europe 15.3% 7.3% 0.7% 13.9%Oceania 4.4% 0.3% 0.4% 1.2% Total 100% 100% 100% 100%

•Human impact essentially concentrated in Asia: 83% killed; 91% affectedHuman impact essentially concentrated in Asia: 83% killed; 91% affected

•Europe and Africa report a similar number of disastersEurope and Africa report a similar number of disasters

•Asia: estimation of damage costs per capita= 225 US$Asia: estimation of damage costs per capita= 225 US$

•Europe: estimation of damage costs per capita= 325 US$Europe: estimation of damage costs per capita= 325 US$

Disaster distribution by regionDisaster distribution by region1989- 20081989- 2008

Number of disaster eventsNumber of disaster eventsby region (%)by region (%)

Disaster mortalityDisaster mortalityby region (%)by region (%)

Economic damage costsEconomic damage costsby region (%)by region (%)

0.4%0.7%

98.8%

0.1%

Africa

Americas

Asia

Europe

Oceania

14%

26%

40%

15%

5%

Africa

Americas

Asia

Europe

Oceania

2.0%

7.2%

83.3%

7.3%

0.3%

Africa

Americas

Asia

Europe

Oceania

1%

37%47%

14%

1%

Africa

Americas

Asia

Europe

Oceania

Source: EM-DAT - The OFDA/CRED International Disaster Database

Disasters in Europe:Disasters in Europe:What kinds occur most frequently?What kinds occur most frequently?

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

Floods & mass mov. wet

Storms

Earthquake, volcano & mass mov. dryEpid. & insect infest.

Drought, extr. temp & wildfires

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

Floods & mass mov. wet

Storms

Earthquake, volcano & mass mov. dryEpid. & insect infest.

Drought, extr. temp & wildfires

Source: EM-DAT - The OFDA/CRED International Disaster Database

3%7%

13%

39%

31%

7%

Disaster occurrence

Drought Earthquake* Extreme temperature Flood**Storm VolcanoWildfire

Natural disasters in Europe:Natural disasters in Europe:shares of the pie 1989-2008 shares of the pie 1989-2008

3%7%

13%

39%

31%

7%

Disaster Occurrence

Drought Earthquake* Extreme temperature Flood**Storm VolcanoWildfire

36%

2%3%

27%

28%

4%

No. affected people

8%7%

7%

40%

33%

5%

Economic damages

• Floods and storms are the major sources of natural perils• Drought affected the largest number of people

* Includes dry mass movements** Includes wet mass movements

Technological disaster distributionTechnological disaster distributionin Europein Europe

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

Industrial Accident Transport Accident Miscellaneous accident

Number of disasters

Source: EM-DAT - The OFDA/CRED International Disaster Database

Number of technological disasters in Number of technological disasters in Europe 1989-2008Europe 1989-2008

CountryTransport Accident

Industrial Accident

Miscellaneous accident

Russia 71 29 43Spain 30 6 5Italy 27 1 7France 21 6 16United Kingdom 20 6 4Greece 17 1 1Soviet Union 16 4 2Ukraine 14 20 5Germany 12 10 4Norway 9 1 0

Source: EM-DAT - The OFDA/CRED International Disaster Database

WHAT IS MICRODIS?WHAT IS MICRODIS?A multidisciplinary consortium dedicated to a common goalA multidisciplinary consortium dedicated to a common goal

MICRODIS focuses on the MICRODIS focuses on the micromicro level of level of disdisasters.asters.

Health, SocialHealth, Social and and Economic Economic impacts have been recognized as the key impacts have been recognized as the key thematic areas in understanding extreme events and their relation to thematic areas in understanding extreme events and their relation to

human populations.human populations.

Social Impacts Social Impacts GroupGroup

Health Impacts Health Impacts GroupGroup

Economic Economic Impacts GroupImpacts Group

Integration Integration GroupGroup

Key characteristics of MICRODISKey characteristics of MICRODIS

• 16 field studies within a coordinated 16 field studies within a coordinated framework of analysisframework of analysis

• yield yield 16 primary data-sets 16 primary data-sets from disaster-from disaster-affected populations on-siteaffected populations on-site

• outputs: outputs: – standard methods to measure impacts in standard methods to measure impacts in

human populationshuman populations– 16 comparable datasets for analysis16 comparable datasets for analysis

Priority:Priority:Data for monitoring progressData for monitoring progress

What do we need:What do we need:

Standardized definitions

Inclusion criteria

Standard data templates

What can be done:What can be done:

Establish baselines

Monitoring

Comparability across space and time

Priority:Priority:Human health and acuteHuman health and acute

climate eventsclimate events

How do acute climate events affect the How do acute climate events affect the environment and ecology, leading to environment and ecology, leading to changes in disease transmission patterns?changes in disease transmission patterns?

Ongoing activities and potential Ongoing activities and potential collaborations at CREDcollaborations at CRED

• CEHAPIS – WHO – ECCEHAPIS – WHO – EC– Assessment tools for climate change-related health Assessment tools for climate change-related health

impactsimpacts

• Research on climate signals in disaster dataResearch on climate signals in disaster data– In collaboration with NOAAIn collaboration with NOAA

• Natural disaster research programNatural disaster research program– Human impact of natural disastersHuman impact of natural disasters– MICRODIS & similar field studies in EuropeMICRODIS & similar field studies in Europe

• Spatial analysis of EM-DAT dataSpatial analysis of EM-DAT data

THANK YOU …THANK YOU …

CONTACTCONTACT

CREDCRED30, Clos Chapelle-aux-Champs30, Clos Chapelle-aux-Champs1200 Brussels – Belgium1200 Brussels – BelgiumTel: +32-2-764-3327/Fax-3441Tel: +32-2-764-3327/Fax-3441E-Mail: Debarati.Guha@uclouvain.beE-Mail: Debarati.Guha@uclouvain.be

www.cred.bewww.cred.be

Ranking EuropeRanking Europedisasters and their impact disasters and their impact

Top 10 countries in 1989-2008Incidence Victims Econ damage

Russia Spain Italy

France Russia Germany

Romania Albania United Kingdom

Italy France France

United Kingdom Moldova Rep Spain

Germany Ukraine Greece

Spain Macedonia FRY Switzerland

Greece United Kingdom Soviet Union

Bulgaria Lithuania Denmark

Austria Germany Austria

Highest 120 (Russia) 6,044,944 (Spain) 34 US$ Billion (Italy)Lowest  28 (Austria) 578,699 (Germany) 4 US$ Billion (Austria)

• High concentration in few countries (France, Spain, Germany)• Russia most hit (wide geographical area)• Italy the worst hit in terms of economic damages

Natural disaster typesNatural disaster types

NATURAL DISASTERS

Epidemic o Viral Infectious Disease o Bacterial Infectious

Disease o Parasitic Infectious

Disease o Fungal Infectious

Disease o Prion Infectious Disease Insect Infestation Animal Stampede

Earthquake Volcano Mass Movement (Dry) o Rockfall o Landslide o Avalanche o Subsidence

Extreme Temperature

o Heat Wave o Cold Wave o Extreme Winter

Condition Drought Wildfire o Forest Fire o Land Fire

Flood o General Flood o Flash Flood o Storm Surge / Coastal

Flood Mass Movement

(Wet) o Rockfall o Landslide o Avalanche o Subsidence

Storm o Tropical Cyclone o Extra-Tropical Cyclone o Local Storm

Biological Geophysical 

Climatological 

Hydrological  Meteorological 

Hydro-Meteorological 

Source: Centre for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters (CRED) & MunichRe, 2009: “Disaster Category Classification for Operational Databases - Common Accord”, June (unpublished)

Number of technological disastersNumber of technological disasters1960-20081960-2008

Source: EM-DAT - The OFDA/CRED International Disaster Database Source: EM-DAT - The OFDA/CRED International Disaster Database

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50

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Num

ber o

f rep

orte

d di

sast

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Industrial Accident Miscellaneous accident Transport Accident

Technological disaster typesTechnological disaster types

Disaster Generic Group 

Disaster Main Type 

Disaster Sub-Type 

Technological  Industrial accidents Chemical spill Collapse Explosion Fire Gas leak Poisoning Radiation Other

Miscellaneous accidents Collapse Explosion Fire Other

Transport accidents Air Rail Road Water