This project has received funding from the European

Union’s Horizon 2020 Research and Innovation

Programme under grant agreement No. 689669.

The present work reflects only the author's view and the Funding Agency can not be held responsible for any use that may be made of the information it contains.

Quantitative Story-Telling: checking

the plausibility of the biofuel solution

EMP-E 2919 Conference: Modelling the implementation of A Clean Planet For All Strategy PARALLEL SESSION 1C: WEF NEXUS IN ENERGY MODELS - THE CASE OF BIOFUEL

9 October 2019, Brussels

Mario Giampietro, Bunyod Holmatov, Abigail Muscat, Maddalena Ripa, Raimon Ripoll-Bosch,

The present work reflects only the author's view and the Funding Agency can not be held responsible for any use that may be made of the information it contains.

This project has received funding from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 Research and Innovation Programme under grant agreement No. 689669.

Organization of the focus group

• World Cafè format

Three issues to be discussed but not limited to those

• In each of the different tables we will have one moderator fostering the discussion:

(i) Zoltan (DG RTD) & Abigail (MAGIC);

To what extent do biofuels contribute to sustainability (e.g. GHG savings, pressures on land), security of

supply and market competitiveness -locally and globally-?

(ii) Mario (MAGIC) & Raúl (MAGIC);

Is the long-term commitment to biofuels encouraging potentially dangerous loopholes (e.g. favour

some unsustainable second-generation biofuels)?

(iii) Bunyod (MAGIC) & Miki (MAGIC);

Do advanced biofuels represent a reliable net energy supply for the future (considering the current

and future costs and scalability)?

The present work reflects only the author's view and the Funding Agency can not be held responsible for any use that may be made of the information it contains.

This project has received funding from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 Research and Innovation Programme under grant agreement No. 689669.

Time schedule

Item Who Time allocation

Welcome & Introduction Raúl Velasco-Fernández 10 min

Presentation of the ‘primers’ Mario Giampietro 15 min

World Café All participants (3 tables)

3 rounds of

20 min each

Total: 60 min

Feedback from table hosts and

plenary discussion

Table hosts wrapping-up and all

participants discussing 15 min

Closing remarks 5 min

The present work reflects only the author's view and the Funding Agency can not be held responsible for any use that may be made of the information it contains.

This project has received funding from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 Research and Innovation Programme under grant agreement No. 689669.

Expected outcomes

• Identification of common problems and challenges in modelling the role of biofuels in EU energy policy;

• Evaluating the added value of the WEF-nexus approach.

• Maintaining an open and informed deliberation about the uncertainties and trade-offs inherent in EU policies and related technological innovations in order to guarantee the quality and fairness of the process of decision-making.

Marie Antoinette

Quantitative Story-Telling in action Checking the plausibility of the biofuel solution in relation to: 1. First Generation 2. Second Generation 3. Future generations . . .

FIRST GENERATION – agro-biofuels

W/m2

W/m2

W/m2 W/m2 W/m2

W/m2

W/m2

W/m2

W/m2

Useful Energy

FUND

nutrients

nutrients

nutrients nutrients

nutrients

nutrients

nutrients

nutrients

W/m2

W/m2

W/m2

W/m2 W/m2

Useful Energy

FLOW (fossil energy)

CITIES

FARMS FARMS

FARMS ENVIRONMENTAL

SERVICES

nutrients

nutrients nutrients

leakage leakage

leakage

10-2 100 102 104 106 108 1010

10-1

100

101

102

103

104

105

pow

er d

ensi

ty (

W/m

2)

area (m2)

10-2 100 102 104 106 108 1010

10-1

100

101

102

103

104

105

area (m2)

Energy supply Energy requirement

after Vaclav Smil 2003 Energy at the Crossroads, The MIT press

(Fig. 5.2 and Fig. 5.3)

oil fields

coal fields

phytomass

cities

industry

houses

supermarket

power density gaps

Biofuel

modern technical progress =

using oil to save land and labor

biofuel idea =

using land and labor to save oil!

SECOND GENERATION – biofuels from wastes

* How much waste do we have? * How expensive is to gather and re-use wastes?

Biodiesel from Used Cooking Oil Potential: EU case

https://www.euractiv.com/section/agriculture-food/news/the-netherlands-mulls-end-to-used-cooking-oil-double-counting/

https://theicct.org/sites/default/files/publications/Greenea%20Report%20Household%20UCO%20Collection%20in%20the%20EU_ICCT_20160629.pdf

1 kg of UCO p.c./year 0.75 kg of gross biodiesel p.c./year 0.6 kg of net biodiesel p.c./year

• Total, wheat straw and maize stover available for biorefineries – 65.3 mln tonnes, dry (2017)

• Wheat straw makes up 65% and maize stover 35% (2017)

• Using this residue will yield 470 PJ (as gross) or 404 PJ (as net) bioethanol;

• In volumetric terms, the net bioethanol production will be a little over 19 billion liters;

• Total gross bioethanol from wheat straw and maize stover can replace 3.44% of EU’s final energy consumption in the transport sector (13 685 PJ in 2017)

• EU’s current (2017) advanced bioethanol production is 250 million liters or 1.3% of the calculated potential;

• Environmental footprints (land, water, carbon) of bioethanol varies greatly between countries;

• Carbon footprint of advanced bioethanol is small and can lead to emission savings

Bioethanol Potential: EU case

But...

But . . .

• Sustainable harvesting of residue is site, climate and field management

specific. How do we generalize it to the EU?

• Is residue really free? If we think of it as a product and use the value

fraction, the land and water requirements of advanced bioethanol are not

necessarily smaller compared to respective requirements of conventional

bioethanol.

• Residue is bulky to transport. Can we really build biorefineries in a radius

of 50 km?

• We are currently producing 1.3% of bioethanol production potential in the

EU, can we close the remaining gap in 10 years (by 2030)?

• Even if we achieve the 100% production potential it can only replace

3.44% of the EU’s final energy consumption in the transport sector

(assuming it does not increase). Are the risks worth it?

• Total manure production 78 mln kg (2017)

• Total manure used in biogas 1.86 mln kg (2017)

• Total biogas co-digestion production 4084 TJ >>> 0.19 % of total energy consumption

• No biogas from co-digestion of manure used in transport

• Potential if all cattle and pig manure was used for energy production:

37.2 PJ of biomethane (<10 % of 2017 road and rail transport)

• Expensive! E.g. transport of manure in particular be can costly

• Not much land and labour required for biogas production

Biomethane Potential: Netherlands case

But...

Discussion

But...

• Is manure free?

• Should we account for land, water, emissions, labour invested before

manure becomes a feedstock for bioenergy?

• Should we consider manure a waste or a co-product?

• If we are to move towards more circular and sustainable agriculture,

should we value manure differently?

NEXT GENERATIONS – the economics of technological promises . . .

• Theoretical production: anything from biohydrogen to jet fuel can be produced from biomass;

• Actual production: advanced bioethanol, some methanol + 2 listed commercial scale plants produce diesel from oil and fat

https://www.irena.org/publications/2016/Oct/Innovation-Outlook-Advanced-Liquid-Biofuels; https://demoplants.bioenergy2020.eu/index.html

• Other frequently mentioned technologies (i.e. thermochemical conversion of biomass to syngas) produce intermediate products that require further processing and hydrogen input to become transport ready fuels;

http://task39.sites.olt.ubc.ca/files/2014/01/Task-39-Drop-in-Biofuels-Report-FINAL-2-Oct-2014-ecopy.pdf

• most of the advanced biofuel technologies are still at the research or demonstration stages!

Next generations biofuels: actual vs theoretical

The 3 lenses used to check the quality of governance for sustainability

#1 - Checking the quality of the framing

Who have chosen the given story-telling? How have they been chosen? Why have they been chosen?

Whose concerns are acknowledged? Whose concerns are ignored? Whose problems will be solved first?

What are the problems to be solved? What is the priority given to existing concerns?

JUSTIFICATION NARRATIVES

#2 - Checking the quality of the proposed policies

Are they feasible? (compatible with external limits) Are they viable? (compatible with internal limits)

What are the gains and losses across the various indicators of performance (impact matrix) What are the winners and losers among the various social actors (equity matrix)

How do the proposed policies look when considering an evolutionary view?

NORMATIVE NARRATIVES

#3 - Checking the quality of the process used to decide

What information is missing for a better informed decision?

Can we organize the available information into a more robust decision support tool?

Can we implement procedures based on participatory processes allowing a robust co-production of knowledge claims and a fairer deliberation?

EXPLANATION NARRATIVES

The present work reflects only the author's view and the Funding Agency can not be held responsible for any use that may be made of the information it contains.

This project has received funding from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 Research and Innovation Programme under grant agreement No. 689669.

Practical info before starting

Take and put on name and coloured stickers

Join the people having your colour

Fulfill the registration form and sign the consent declaration

Discuss with your group around the selected narrative (use markers, post-it, etc to take notes) over 20 mins

After 20 mins move to another table/narrative

The Moderators remain at the table when others leave, share key insights from the prior conversation so others can link and

build using ideas from their respective tables, report the discussion key-points at the end of the world cafè.

This project has received funding from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 Research and

Innovation Programme under grant agreement No. 689669.

The present work reflects only the author's view and the Funding Agency can not be held

responsible for any use that may be made of the information it contains.

Thank you for your attention!

http://magic-nexus.eu/ https://www.facebook.com/MagicNexusEu/ #MAGIC_NEXUS @MAGIC_NEXUS