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From Efficient Markets Theory to Behavioral Finance Robert J. Shiller The Journal of Economic Perspectives, Vol. 17, No. 1. (Winter, 2003), pp. 83-104. Stable URL: http://links.jstor.org/sici?sici=0895-3309%28200324%2917%3A1%3C83%3AFEMTTB%3E2.0.CO%3B2-J The Journal of Economic Perspectives is currently published by American Economic Association. Your use of the JSTOR archive indicates your acceptance of JSTOR's Terms and Conditions of Use, available at http://www.jstor.org/about/terms.html. JSTOR's Terms and Conditions of Use provides, in part, that unless you have obtained prior permission, you may not download an entire issue of a journal or multiple copies of articles, and you may use content in the JSTOR archive only for your personal, non-commercial use. Please contact the publisher regarding any further use of this work. Publisher contact information may be obtained at http://www.jstor.org/journals/aea.html. Each copy of any part of a JSTOR transmission must contain the same copyright notice that appears on the screen or printed page of such transmission. The JSTOR Archive is a trusted digital repository providing for long-term preservation and access to leading academic journals and scholarly literature from around the world. The Archive is supported by libraries, scholarly societies, publishers, and foundations. It is an initiative of JSTOR, a not-for-profit organization with a mission to help the scholarly community take advantage of advances in technology. For more information regarding JSTOR, please contact [email protected]. http://www.jstor.org Tue Feb 19 12:44:19 2008

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Page 1: R. Shiller (2003)

From Efficient Markets Theory to Behavioral Finance

Robert J. Shiller

The Journal of Economic Perspectives, Vol. 17, No. 1. (Winter, 2003), pp. 83-104.

Stable URL:

http://links.jstor.org/sici?sici=0895-3309%28200324%2917%3A1%3C83%3AFEMTTB%3E2.0.CO%3B2-J

The Journal of Economic Perspectives is currently published by American Economic Association.

Your use of the JSTOR archive indicates your acceptance of JSTOR's Terms and Conditions of Use, available athttp://www.jstor.org/about/terms.html. JSTOR's Terms and Conditions of Use provides, in part, that unless you have obtainedprior permission, you may not download an entire issue of a journal or multiple copies of articles, and you may use content inthe JSTOR archive only for your personal, non-commercial use.

Please contact the publisher regarding any further use of this work. Publisher contact information may be obtained athttp://www.jstor.org/journals/aea.html.

Each copy of any part of a JSTOR transmission must contain the same copyright notice that appears on the screen or printedpage of such transmission.

The JSTOR Archive is a trusted digital repository providing for long-term preservation and access to leading academicjournals and scholarly literature from around the world. The Archive is supported by libraries, scholarly societies, publishers,and foundations. It is an initiative of JSTOR, a not-for-profit organization with a mission to help the scholarly community takeadvantage of advances in technology. For more information regarding JSTOR, please contact [email protected].

http://www.jstor.orgTue Feb 19 12:44:19 2008

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You have printed the following article:

From Efficient Markets Theory to Behavioral FinanceRobert J. ShillerThe Journal of Economic Perspectives, Vol. 17, No. 1. (Winter, 2003), pp. 83-104.Stable URL:

http://links.jstor.org/sici?sici=0895-3309%28200324%2917%3A1%3C83%3AFEMTTB%3E2.0.CO%3B2-J

This article references the following linked citations. If you are trying to access articles from anoff-campus location, you may be required to first logon via your library web site to access JSTOR. Pleasevisit your library's website or contact a librarian to learn about options for remote access to JSTOR.

[Footnotes]

4 Dividend Innovations and Stock Price VolatilityKenneth D. WestEconometrica, Vol. 56, No. 1. (Jan., 1988), pp. 37-61.Stable URL:

http://links.jstor.org/sici?sici=0012-9682%28198801%2956%3A1%3C37%3ADIASPV%3E2.0.CO%3B2-M

5 Why Does the Stock Market Fluctuate?Robert B. Barsky; J. Bradford De LongThe Quarterly Journal of Economics, Vol. 108, No. 2. (May, 1993), pp. 291-311.Stable URL:

http://links.jstor.org/sici?sici=0033-5533%28199305%29108%3A2%3C291%3AWDTSMF%3E2.0.CO%3B2-I

7 The Dividend-Price Ratio and Expectations of Future Dividends and Discount FactorsJohn Y. Campbell; Robert J. ShillerThe Review of Financial Studies, Vol. 1, No. 3. (Autumn, 1988), pp. 195-228.Stable URL:

http://links.jstor.org/sici?sici=0893-9454%28198823%291%3A3%3C195%3ATDRAEO%3E2.0.CO%3B2-O

8 Asset Prices in an Exchange EconomyRobert E. Lucas, Jr.Econometrica, Vol. 46, No. 6. (Nov., 1978), pp. 1429-1445.Stable URL:

http://links.jstor.org/sici?sici=0012-9682%28197811%2946%3A6%3C1429%3AAPIAEE%3E2.0.CO%3B2-I

http://www.jstor.org

LINKED CITATIONS- Page 1 of 7 -

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8 The Determinants of the Variability of Stock Market PricesSanford J. Grossman; Robert J. ShillerThe American Economic Review, Vol. 71, No. 2, Papers and Proceedings of the Ninety-ThirdAnnual Meeting of the American Economic Association. (May, 1981), pp. 222-227.Stable URL:

http://links.jstor.org/sici?sici=0002-8282%28198105%2971%3A2%3C222%3ATDOTVO%3E2.0.CO%3B2-8

15 Market Volatility and Investor BehaviorRobert J. ShillerThe American Economic Review, Vol. 80, No. 2, Papers and Proceedings of the Hundred andSecond Annual Meeting of the American Economic Association. (May, 1990), pp. 58-62.Stable URL:

http://links.jstor.org/sici?sici=0002-8282%28199005%2980%3A2%3C58%3AMVAIB%3E2.0.CO%3B2-H

16 A Theoretical Analysis of Real Estate Returns: DiscussionMeir StatmanThe Journal of Finance, Vol. 40, No. 3, Papers and Proceedings of the Forty-Third Annual MeetingAmerican Finance Association, Dallas, Texas, December 28-30, 1984. (Jul., 1985), pp. 719-721.Stable URL:

http://links.jstor.org/sici?sici=0022-1082%28198507%2940%3A3%3C719%3AATAORE%3E2.0.CO%3B2-8

16 Are Investors Reluctant to Realize Their Losses?Terrance OdeanThe Journal of Finance, Vol. 53, No. 5. (Oct., 1998), pp. 1775-1798.Stable URL:

http://links.jstor.org/sici?sici=0022-1082%28199810%2953%3A5%3C1775%3AAIRTRT%3E2.0.CO%3B2-4

References

Why Does the Stock Market Fluctuate?Robert B. Barsky; J. Bradford De LongThe Quarterly Journal of Economics, Vol. 108, No. 2. (May, 1993), pp. 291-311.Stable URL:

http://links.jstor.org/sici?sici=0033-5533%28199305%29108%3A2%3C291%3AWDTSMF%3E2.0.CO%3B2-I

http://www.jstor.org

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A Variance Decomposition for Stock ReturnsJohn Y. CampbellThe Economic Journal, Vol. 101, No. 405. (Mar., 1991), pp. 157-179.Stable URL:

http://links.jstor.org/sici?sici=0013-0133%28199103%29101%3A405%3C157%3AAVDFSR%3E2.0.CO%3B2-X

Stock Prices, Earnings, and Expected DividendsJohn Y. Campbell; Robert J. ShillerThe Journal of Finance, Vol. 43, No. 3, Papers and Proceedings of the Forty-Seventh AnnualMeeting of the American Finance Association, Chicago, Illinois, December 28-30, 1987. (Jul.,1988), pp. 661-676.Stable URL:

http://links.jstor.org/sici?sici=0022-1082%28198807%2943%3A3%3C661%3ASPEAED%3E2.0.CO%3B2-1

The Dividend-Price Ratio and Expectations of Future Dividends and Discount FactorsJohn Y. Campbell; Robert J. ShillerThe Review of Financial Studies, Vol. 1, No. 3. (Autumn, 1988), pp. 195-228.Stable URL:

http://links.jstor.org/sici?sici=0893-9454%28198823%291%3A3%3C195%3ATDRAEO%3E2.0.CO%3B2-O

Investor Psychology and Security Market under- and OverreactionsKent Daniel; David Hirshleifer; Avanidhar SubrahmanyamThe Journal of Finance, Vol. 53, No. 6. (Dec., 1998), pp. 1839-1885.Stable URL:

http://links.jstor.org/sici?sici=0022-1082%28199812%2953%3A6%3C1839%3AIPASMU%3E2.0.CO%3B2-%23

Does the Stock Market Overreact?Werner F. M. De Bondt; Richard ThalerThe Journal of Finance, Vol. 40, No. 3, Papers and Proceedings of the Forty-Third Annual MeetingAmerican Finance Association, Dallas, Texas, December 28-30, 1984. (Jul., 1985), pp. 793-805.Stable URL:

http://links.jstor.org/sici?sici=0022-1082%28198507%2940%3A3%3C793%3ADTSMO%3E2.0.CO%3B2-Q

Noise Trader Risk in Financial MarketsJ. Bradford De Long; Andrei Shleifer; Lawrence H. Summers; Robert J. WaldmannThe Journal of Political Economy, Vol. 98, No. 4. (Aug., 1990), pp. 703-738.Stable URL:

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Positive Feedback Investment Strategies and Destabilizing Rational SpeculationJ. Bradford de Long; Andrei Shleifer; Lawrence H. Summers; Robert J. WaldmannThe Journal of Finance, Vol. 45, No. 2. (Jun., 1990), pp. 379-395.Stable URL:

http://links.jstor.org/sici?sici=0022-1082%28199006%2945%3A2%3C379%3APFISAD%3E2.0.CO%3B2-Y

Efficient Capital Markets: A Review of Theory and Empirical WorkEugene F. FamaThe Journal of Finance, Vol. 25, No. 2, Papers and Proceedings of the Twenty-Eighth AnnualMeeting of the American Finance Association New York, N.Y. December, 28-30, 1969. (May,1970), pp. 383-417.Stable URL:

http://links.jstor.org/sici?sici=0022-1082%28197005%2925%3A2%3C383%3AECMARO%3E2.0.CO%3B2-V

Efficient Capital Markets: IIEugene F. FamaThe Journal of Finance, Vol. 46, No. 5. (Dec., 1991), pp. 1575-1617.Stable URL:

http://links.jstor.org/sici?sici=0022-1082%28199112%2946%3A5%3C1575%3AECMI%3E2.0.CO%3B2-L

The Informational Effects of Restrictions on Short Sales: Some Empirical EvidenceStephen FiglewskiThe Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Vol. 16, No. 4, Proceedings of 16th AnnualConference of the Western Finance Association, June 18-20, 1981, Jackson Hole, Wyoming. (Nov.,1981), pp. 463-476.Stable URL:

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Options, Short Sales, and Market CompletenessStephen Figlewski; Gwendolyn P. WebbThe Journal of Finance, Vol. 48, No. 2. (Jun., 1993), pp. 761-777.Stable URL:

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Famous First BubblesPeter M. GarberThe Journal of Economic Perspectives, Vol. 4, No. 2. (Spring, 1990), pp. 35-54.Stable URL:

http://links.jstor.org/sici?sici=0895-3309%28199021%294%3A2%3C35%3AFFB%3E2.0.CO%3B2-9

The Determinants of the Variability of Stock Market PricesSanford J. Grossman; Robert J. ShillerThe American Economic Review, Vol. 71, No. 2, Papers and Proceedings of the Ninety-ThirdAnnual Meeting of the American Economic Association. (May, 1981), pp. 222-227.Stable URL:

http://links.jstor.org/sici?sici=0002-8282%28198105%2971%3A2%3C222%3ATDOTVO%3E2.0.CO%3B2-8

Implications of Security Market Data for Models of Dynamic EconomiesLars Peter Hansen; Ravi JagannathanThe Journal of Political Economy, Vol. 99, No. 2. (Apr., 1991), pp. 225-262.Stable URL:

http://links.jstor.org/sici?sici=0022-3808%28199104%2999%3A2%3C225%3AIOSMDF%3E2.0.CO%3B2-L

Returns to Buying Winners and Selling Losers: Implications for Stock Market EfficiencyNarasimhan Jegadeesh; Sheridan TitmanThe Journal of Finance, Vol. 48, No. 1. (Mar., 1993), pp. 65-91.Stable URL:

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Prospect Theory: An Analysis of Decision under RiskDaniel Kahneman; Amos TverskyEconometrica, Vol. 47, No. 2. (Mar., 1979), pp. 263-292.Stable URL:

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The Present-Value Relation: Tests Based on Implied Variance BoundsStephen F. LeRoy; Richard D. PorterEconometrica, Vol. 49, No. 3. (May, 1981), pp. 555-574.Stable URL:

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Asset Prices in an Exchange EconomyRobert E. Lucas, Jr.Econometrica, Vol. 46, No. 6. (Nov., 1978), pp. 1429-1445.Stable URL:

http://links.jstor.org/sici?sici=0012-9682%28197811%2946%3A6%3C1429%3AAPIAEE%3E2.0.CO%3B2-I

Dividend Variability and Variance Bounds Tests for the Rationality of Stock Market PricesTerry A. Marsh; Robert C. MertonThe American Economic Review, Vol. 76, No. 3. (Jun., 1986), pp. 483-498.Stable URL:

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An Intertemporal Capital Asset Pricing ModelRobert C. MertonEconometrica, Vol. 41, No. 5. (Sep., 1973), pp. 867-887.Stable URL:

http://links.jstor.org/sici?sici=0012-9682%28197309%2941%3A5%3C867%3AAICAPM%3E2.0.CO%3B2-E

Risk, Uncertainty, and Divergence of OpinionEdward M. MillerThe Journal of Finance, Vol. 32, No. 4. (Sep., 1977), pp. 1151-1168.Stable URL:

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Are Investors Reluctant to Realize Their Losses?Terrance OdeanThe Journal of Finance, Vol. 53, No. 5. (Oct., 1998), pp. 1775-1798.Stable URL:

http://links.jstor.org/sici?sici=0022-1082%28199810%2953%3A5%3C1775%3AAIRTRT%3E2.0.CO%3B2-4

Speculative Prices and Popular ModelsRobert J. ShillerThe Journal of Economic Perspectives, Vol. 4, No. 2. (Spring, 1990), pp. 55-65.Stable URL:

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Market Volatility and Investor BehaviorRobert J. ShillerThe American Economic Review, Vol. 80, No. 2, Papers and Proceedings of the Hundred andSecond Annual Meeting of the American Economic Association. (May, 1990), pp. 58-62.Stable URL:

http://links.jstor.org/sici?sici=0002-8282%28199005%2980%3A2%3C58%3AMVAIB%3E2.0.CO%3B2-H

Bubbles, Crashes, and Endogenous Expectations in Experimental Spot Asset MarketsVernon L. Smith; Gerry L. Suchanek; Arlington W. WilliamsEconometrica, Vol. 56, No. 5. (Sep., 1988), pp. 1119-1151.Stable URL:

http://links.jstor.org/sici?sici=0012-9682%28198809%2956%3A5%3C1119%3ABCAEEI%3E2.0.CO%3B2-3

A Theoretical Analysis of Real Estate Returns: DiscussionMeir StatmanThe Journal of Finance, Vol. 40, No. 3, Papers and Proceedings of the Forty-Third Annual MeetingAmerican Finance Association, Dallas, Texas, December 28-30, 1984. (Jul., 1985), pp. 719-721.Stable URL:

http://links.jstor.org/sici?sici=0022-1082%28198507%2940%3A3%3C719%3AATAORE%3E2.0.CO%3B2-8

Judgment under Uncertainty: Heuristics and BiasesAmos Tversky; Daniel KahnemanScience, New Series, Vol. 185, No. 4157. (Sep. 27, 1974), pp. 1124-1131.Stable URL:

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What Drives Firm-Level Stock Returns?Tuomo VuolteenahoThe Journal of Finance, Vol. 57, No. 1. (Feb., 2002), pp. 233-264.Stable URL:

http://links.jstor.org/sici?sici=0022-1082%28200202%2957%3A1%3C233%3AWDFSR%3E2.0.CO%3B2-F

Dividend Innovations and Stock Price VolatilityKenneth D. WestEconometrica, Vol. 56, No. 1. (Jan., 1988), pp. 37-61.Stable URL:

http://links.jstor.org/sici?sici=0012-9682%28198801%2956%3A1%3C37%3ADIASPV%3E2.0.CO%3B2-M

http://www.jstor.org

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