Oct. 2, 2015 Bloomberg Brief Economics 6

RANKINGS: BEST FX FORECASTERS BY WEI LU

To Find Top Currency Forecaster, Skip London and Head to WarsawFrom the 80-person

headquarters of TMS Brokersin Warsaw’s financial district,Konrad Bialas's four-personresearch group was the bestoverall forecaster of majorcurrencies in the 12 monthsthrough September, accordingto Bloomberg rankings of 61firms. TMS was also amongthe top four predictors amongseven exchange rates,

including the Australian dollarand the British pound.   TMS hit the mark lastquarter by being pessimistic,incorporating a possiblemeltdown in China’s stockmarket into its FX forecasts.The company also questionedwhether the bullish consensuson the U.S. dollar was toogood to be true. For more,click .here

Overall

Rank Firm Score

1 TMS Brokers 63.68

2 Saxo Bank 59.08

3National Bank

Financial58.76

4 Credit Suisse Group 57.86

5 Macquarie Bank 57.53

AUDUSD

Rank Firm Score

1 TMS Brokers 82.97

2 Saxo Bank 82

3 ABN Amro Bank N.V. 72.7

4ING Financial

Markets70.87

5 Credit Suisse Group 69.54

EURCHF

Rank Firm Score

1Lloyds Bank

Commercial Banking75.92

2 TMS Brokers 64.48

3 DNB 59.97

4Oversea-Chinese

Banking Corp59.44

5 BNP Paribas 58.21

EURGBP

Rank Firm Score

1 TD Securities 66.82

2National Bank

Financial64.96

3 Scotiabank 62.46

4Nomura BankInternational

62.34

5 Westpac Banking 62.07

EURJPY

Rank Firm Score

1National Bank

Financial72.39

2 Alpha Bank 67.83

3 RBC Capital Markets 65.83

4 Nordea Bank 64.38

5 Scotiabank 63.72

EURNOK

Rank Firm Score

1Lloyds Bank

Commercial Banking70.19

2 TMS Brokers 69.77

3 Swedbank 68.02

4 Morgan Stanley 67.69

5 Banco Santander 67.2

EURSEK

Rank Firm Score

1 Rand Merchant Bank 78.28

2 Rabobank 73.77

3 Credit Suisse Group 71.44

4 Citigroup 68.35

5 Wells Fargo 68.16

EURUSD

Rank Firm Score

1 Mizuho Bank 71.77

2 DNB 68.81

3 Barclays 64.09

4 CIB Bank 62.14

5 CaixaBank 61.06

GBPUSD

Rank Firm Score

1Validus RiskManagement

78.78

2 AFEX 64.01

3 TMS Brokers 63.73

4 Nordea Bank 61.54

5Lloyds Bank

Commercial Banking60.69

NZDUSD

Rank Firm Score

1 Saxo Bank 80.78

2 Morgan Stanley 76.69

3Bank of America

Merrill Lynch74.11

4 TMS Brokers 73.17

5 Intesa Sanpaolo 72.65

USDCAD

Rank Firm Score

1 Day By Day 81.74

2Royal Bank of

Scotland75.75

3 TMS Brokers 72.35

4 Saxo Bank 72.1

5 Macquarie Bank 70.42

USDCHF

Rank Firm Score

1 Maybank Singapore 73.34

2 Alpha Bank 69.84

3 Monex Europe Ltd 67.8

4 BMO Capital Markets 66.98

5 Credit Agricole CIB 66.04

USDCNY

Rank Firm Score

1 HSBC Holdings 63.71

2 ABN Amro Bank N.V. 63.53

3 Barclays 62.61

4 Silicon Valley Bank 62.4

5 Cinkciarz.pl 60.11

USDJPY

Rank Firm Score

1 Banco Santander 73.84

2 Commerzbank 69.74

3Bank of America

Merrill Lynch68.31

4 Mizuho Bank 65.25

5 DNB 64.93

NOTE: Currency forecasters are ranked on three criteria: margin of error, timing (for identical forecasts, earlier ones received more credit) and directional accuracy

(whether the movements the forecasts implied coincided  with the currency's overall direction). The above ranking, based on Bloomberg's foreign exchange

forecasts, was for the four quarters ended Sept. 30. Scores were calculated each quarter for the three criteria, which were weighted 60 percent, 30 percent and 10

percent, respectively. The final score for each currency pair was the time-weighted average of the four quarterly scores. Only forecasters who submitted estimates

for at least three of the four quarters were included. The best overall forecasters were identified by averaging the individual  scores for each firm on all 13 currency

pairs and all four quarters. Forecasters  had to be ranked in at least eight of the 13 pairs to qualify for the overall  ranking. 61 firms qualified. All ranking tables

display the top 20 percent of the forecasters who were eligible, to a maximum of 10 names. Bloomberg terminal subscribers can view more of the rankings .here

GLOBAL EVENTS JAMES AMOTT, NANCY MORAN AND KEAT KIAN KOH, BLOOMBERG NEWS