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Steve Rayner James Martin Institute for Science and Civilization WICKED PROBLEMS:CLUMSY SOLUTIONS JamesMartinInstitute for science and civilization

Rayner, Wicked Problems, clumsy Solutions

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Steve Rayner, Jack Beale Lecture

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  • JamesMartinInstitutefor science andcivilization

    Steve RaynerJames Martin Institute for Science and Civilization

    WICKED PROBLEMS:CLUMSYSOLUTIONS

    JamesMartinInstitutefor science andcivilization

  • JamesMartinInstitutefor science andcivilization

    WICKED PROBLEMS

    Identified by Horst Rittel in late 1960s as characterizing socialproblems

    Contrasted relatively easy challenges of public healthengineering in late 19th & early 20th centuries with late 20th

    century urban planning

    Also compared puzzle-solving in mathematics & natural sciencewith complexities of social policy

    Noted challenges of increasing heterogeneity & value conflictsin modern society

  • JamesMartinInstitutefor science andcivilization

    CHARACTERISTICS OF WICKED PROBLEMS

    Symptoms of deeper problems

    Little room for trial & error learning

    Lack a clear set of alternative solutions

    Characterized by contradictory certitudes

    Involve entrenched interests

    Persistent & insoluble

    Coping not solving

    Feasibility not optimality

  • JamesMartinInstitutefor science andcivilization

    ENVIRONMENTAL PROBLEMS ARELOOKING INCREASINGLY WICKED

    Basic clean air & water legislation was based on publicexperience

    London pea-soupers in 1952 killed 12,000 people

    Cuyahoga river fires 1936-1969 were highly visible

    Contemporary issues involve complex science not directlyapprehended by public & politicians

    Not only look like social issues but incorporate them

    Environmental justice

    Sustainable development

  • JamesMartinInstitutefor science andcivilization

    WICKED ENVIRONMENTAL PROBLEMSINCLUDE

    Climate change

    Water resources management

    Genetically modified agriculture

    Urban planning

    Waste disposal

    Energy production & use

    Marine ecosystem protection

    Biodiversity loss

  • JamesMartinInstitutefor science andcivilization

    TAMING WICKED PROBLEMS

    3 strategies along spectrum from reductionist to holistic (Roberts)

    Hierarchical simplify issues & apply routines

    Competitive use expertise to control resources

    Egalitarian open the problem to more stakeholders

    Each reflects a coherent organizational world view

  • JamesMartinInstitutefor science andcivilization

    Wicked - Conflicting

    Worldviews

    Complex - ClinicalConsultancy

    Tame AppliedScience

    Uncertainty/ignorance

    DecisionStakes

    High

    High

    Low

    CONTESTED CHARACTERIZATION

  • JamesMartinInstitutefor science andcivilization

    SEARCH FOR TRANSCENDENT AUTHORITY

    Sees conflicting values as a problem for policy

    Demand for science-based or evidence-based policy

    Attachment to idea that science determines policy

    More research is always needed

    Problems expand to incorporate more technical disciplines

    But a surfeit of science is indeterminate (US NAPAP)

    Alternative is to make a virtue of necessity

  • JamesMartinInstitutefor science andcivilization

    LIMITS TO TAMING STRATEGIES

    None provides solutions. At best each domesticates theproblem or tames the growl (Churchman)

    Domestication operates in at least two modes

    Delay - establish a research programme (USGCRP)

    Goal displacement integrated agency response (CBP)

  • JamesMartinInstitutefor science andcivilization

    Hierarchical

    EgalitarianCompetitive

    A SOLUTION SPACE

    Solution space

  • JamesMartinInstitutefor science andcivilization

    CLIMATE CHANGE AS A WICKED PROBLEM

    UN FCCC objective is to stabilize atmospheric greenhouse gasconcentrations at a level that would prevent dangerousanthropogenic interference with the climate system

    No agreement on meaning of dangerous or interference

    Based on hierarchical model of ozone regime (simple problem)

    Seeks agreement among 195 signatories

    Potentially explosive growth in emissions from China & India

    Kyoto protocol divisive - embraced by Europe but rejected byUSA & Australia

  • JamesMartinInstitutefor science andcivilization

    CLIMATE CHANGE: THE VIEW FROMEUROPE

    70-90% of UK population sees climate as a significant problem

    70-90% sees the government as primarily responsible for action

    3 decades of the European project (climate as a handy externalthreat to all)

    Margaret Thatcher as Green Goddess

    Prevalence of precautionary principle (avoid disaster)

    Faith in behavioural change

  • JamesMartinInstitutefor science andcivilization

    CLIMATE CHANGE: THE US VIEW

    60% sees climate as a significant problem

    Only 40% looks to the Federal government to lead response

    3 decades of decentralization

    George Bush Sr & the Whitehouse effect highlighted(misrepresented) disagreement

    Prevalence of proportional principle (benefits and costs)

    Faith in technological change

  • JamesMartinInstitutefor science andcivilization

    PROFLIGACY: AN EGALITARIAN STORY

    Consumption is the underlying problem Environmental degradation is symptomatic of wider malaise Loss of harmony with nature & each other in pursuit of profit &

    growth Nature is fragile & the economy is forgiving Heroes are outspoken climate scientists & activists Villains are greedy corporations Problem is urgent time is compressed Solution is behavioural, requiring precaution & frugality

  • JamesMartinInstitutefor science andcivilization

    THE CRIES OF THE CORALS (LEFALE)

    Who cares about coral reefs? I often heard in the corridors of the UNbuildings. I care. I listen to the cries of millions of polyps that make upthe corals. Why? Because there is more at stake for us all than just thedeath of polyps and corals.

    What is causing corals to die lies at the core of the way we humanslive.Dead corals are the victims of injusticesof greed, ofselfishness.It is an act of genocide.

    The coral polyps own world mirrors the human experience the criesfor freedom from foreign debt, poverty, starvation, the cries to changelifestyles, not the climate, the cries to stop burning fossil fuels! Toignore the death of coral reefs is, I believe, to ignore the cries of manyof the worlds people.

  • JamesMartinInstitutefor science andcivilization

    PLANNING: A HIERARCHICAL STORY

    Lack of planning & weak global governance is the underlyingproblem

    Both the global commons & the global economy requiremonitoring and managing within limits

    Heroes are those scientists, civil servants, NGOrepresentatives, & enlightened politicians building managementstructures for the global commons

    Villains are complacent governments who wont sign up (US &Australia)

    Long-term view Rome wasnt built in a day

    Solution is diplomatic & regulatory

  • JamesMartinInstitutefor science andcivilization

    A NEW INSTITUTIONAL ORDER (UN HDR)

    The challenge is to find the rules and institutions for strongergovernance to preserve the advantages of global competition, butalso to provide enough space for human, community andenvironmental resources.

    Some of the key elements of an improved international architecture:

    - A stronger and more coherent UN systemA global central bankA worldinvestment trustA world environment agency.

    A Life Observatory should be established to systematically monitormajor ecosystems. Long-term planning should factor-in projectedchanges in climate and changes to specific ecosystems.

    Intergovernmental processes tend to be difficult to organize and slow toexecute, but they are the only realistic way to address cross-borderpollution and ecosystem degradation.

  • JamesMartinInstitutefor science andcivilization

    PROBLEM WHAT PROBLEM? ACOMPETITIVE STORY

    Problem is insufficient scepticism science is uncertain &technological progress rapid

    The economy is fragile & nature is forgiving

    Heroes are technological innovators & venture capitalists

    Villains are panic-prone environmentalists & planners trying topick winners

    Short term focus other issues are more pressing (Lomborg)

    Solution, if there is a climate problem, will be to allow marketforces to work

  • JamesMartinInstitutefor science andcivilization

    HANDS OFF THE MARKET (BATE)

    On the whole societys problems and challenges are best dealt with bypeople and companies interacting with each other freely and withoutinterference from the state. We do not know whether the world isdefinitively warming. If the world is warming, we do not know what iscausing the change man or nature. We do not know whether awarmer world would be a good or a bad thing.Until the science ofclimate change is better understood, no government action should beundertaken beyond elimination of subsidies and other distortions of themarket.

  • JamesMartinInstitutefor science andcivilization

    ALL THREE STORIES

    Are elegant

    Are internally consistent and logically argued

    Are irreducible to one another

    Give plausible but conflicting accounts

    Define what sort of evidence is legitimate and credible

    Are immune to falsification by appeals to scientific facts

    Combine to create a wicked problem

  • JamesMartinInstitutefor science andcivilization

    THE GOOD NEWS

    Individually each story is only a partial vision, but collectivelyeach fills in a perspective on the problem that the others cannotentertain none is entirely right, all are partially wrong

    Policies based on only one or two of these visions will fail tograpple with its wickedness

    Together, they offer a dynamic plural, argumentative system ofpolicy definition

    Omitting any one voice also leads to loss of legitimacy andpublic trust

  • JamesMartinInstitutefor science andcivilization

    THE BAD NEWS

    Climate regime is overwhelmingly based in the hierarchical story

    Focuses overwhelmingly on emissions reductions over impacts

    Assumes policies will be expensive - therefore requiringmonitoring & compliance

    Regime represents 14 years of negotiation

    Has minimal goals that will not make a difference

    Is rejected by major players (USA & Australia)

    Kyoto has been represented as the only game in town Whatwould be a viable alternative?

  • JamesMartinInstitutefor science andcivilization

    CLUMSY SOLUTIONS (SHAPIRO)

    Looked at problem of selecting judges (1988)

    Society & individuals are committed to conflicting values (rule-oflaw & democracy)

    Recognized importance of essential contestation

    Where you stand depends on where you sit: What you seedepends on where you stand

    Need to avoid alienation of significant constituencies

    Importance of maintaining a set of values over time

  • JamesMartinInstitutefor science andcivilization

    A CLUMSY CLIMATE STRATEGY

    Increase initial focus on adaptation emissions reduction issomebody elses problem (Europe) or just too costly (US)

    Deal with issues at lowest possible level of decision making nations, provinces, cities

    Focus emissions reduction efforts on smallest number of players fewer than 10 really matter

    Reverse global collapse of energy R&D funding again 10countries fund 95% of R&D

    Focus on processes rather than targets & timetables

    Consider benefits of international competition as well ascooperation and coercion

  • JamesMartinInstitutefor science andcivilization

    KEY CHARACTERISTICS OF CLUMSYSOLUTIONS

    Observe law of minimum requisite variety

    Clumsiness is not reducible to public participation

    All voices heard & responded to

    Are emergent & often informal

  • JamesMartinInstitutefor science andcivilization

    CHALLENGES FOR CLUMSY APPROACHES

    Media & voters expect policy makers to fix problems

    Policy makers demand scientific bottom lines for decisionmaking, even though they dont use them

    Scientists are committed to improving knowledge, so hold outunrealistic expectations hopes of policymakers

    The hammer problem

    Success of rational choice for solving simple and complexproblems exacerbates expectations

    Claims that there are no alternatives to rational choice tools

  • JamesMartinInstitutefor science andcivilization

    THE CLUMSY IMPERATIVE

    Democracy is not a design problem: It is a challenge to theimagination (VISVANATHAN)

    Embracing clumsiness moves us from techniques for selectingamong alternatives towards new skills for creating imaginativesolutions

  • JamesMartinInstitutefor science andcivilization

    Marco Verweij & Michael Thompson (eds)

    Palgrave, London, September 2006