Recreating the Creative Environment

Donald W BrabenVenture Research International

andDepartment of Earth Sciences

University College Londondon.braben@btinternet.com

University of Uppsala2 March 2009

Universities before ~ 1970

Autonomy generally protected by governments Tenured staff were usually given modest funds that they could use to tackle any problem that interested them

Thus, the environment automatically encouraged and fostered creativity without constraints

Universities after ~ 1970

Governments have increasingly interfered in university governance, and in academic research strategy

Universities treated increasingly as if they were businessesspending “public money”

Creation of league tables

Trust between governments and the academic sector has virtually disappeared

Some 20th century discoveries

Max Planck: Discovered that energy is quantisedAlbert Einstein: Photoelectric effect. Special and General relativityErnest Rutherford: Founded nuclear physicsPaul AM Dirac Predicted existence of positronsWolfgang Pauli: Exclusion principle. Predicted existence of neutrinosErwin Schrödinger: Founded wave mechanicsWerner K Heisenberg: Founded quantum mechanics. Uncertainty principleAlexander Fleming: Discovered penicillinEnrico Fermi: Built first nuclear reactorOswald T Avery: Discovered that DNA is the genetic moleculeLinus Pauling: Seminal work on the nature of the chemical bondDorothy C Hodgkin: Pioneered X-ray diffraction techniquesMax Perutz: Discovered structure of haemoglobin Francis Crick and James D Watson: Discovered double-helix structure of DNAJohn Bardeen, Walter H Brattain, and William B Shockley: Invented the transistorDennis Gabor: Invented holographyCharles H Townes: Invented the maserBarbara McClintock: Discovered transposonsJames Black: Discovered how to design targeted pharmaceutical drugsSydney Brenner: Pioneered molecular biology

The Planck Club

My affectionate name for a fictitious Club comprised of the scientists listed in Slide 3 together with some 300 others of similar calibre whose collective scientific discoveries transformed the 20th century

Indeed, the Planck Club in many ways defined the 20th century

I do not know of any member of that Club who needed to apply for a peer-reviewed grant

Academic Research

Academic research has played a vital role in the global economy

Almost every 20th century Planck-Club member worked at a university or a similar institute

Will the universities spawn a 21st century Planck Club?

Changes to academic research introduced post ~ 1970

• Written proposals essential• Mandatory peer review of proposals: peer preview• Research prioritised• Timetables and milestones• The need to publish in high impact-factor journals• Assessment of university departments

Constraints thereby introduced are ~ outside an individual researcher’s control. They lead to exploration by “road map”

They reduce freedom and inhibit creativity

That is no way to reach the unknown

Loss of youthful leadership?

Average age at first tenured appointment 2006 ~ 42 (US)

Up to 1960s 25-30

Average age of Nobel Prize winners 1997-2006: 66

1961-1970: 56

Industrial Research

Basic exploratory research has virtually disappeared

Time-horizons have been sharply reduced

Benchmarking

Research Funding

Average OECD expenditure on R&D as a percentage of Gross Domestic Product: 1981: 1.95% 2005: 2.30% R&D investments are increasing in quantity (a total of $687 billion in 2005). Money is not the problem, therefore. But what about the quality of these investments?

Observable: A dearth of major scientific discoveries

Some quotes

Jules Henri Poincaré (1854-1912) “Science is built up with facts, as a house is with stones. But a collection of facts is no more a science than a heap of stones is a house.”

Linus Pauling (1901-94) “I have always liked working in some scientific direction that nobody else is working on.”

Richard Feynman (1918-88) answering the question: how can one win a Nobel Prize? – “It’s easy. Find out what your friends are doing, and go in the opposite direction. But above all, enjoy what you do”.

Science’s Breakthrough of the Year, 1996 – 2006, and Molecule of the Year, 1989 – 1995

2006: Proof of Poincaré’s conjecture2005: Evolution in action: Understanding evolutionary mechanisms2004: Exploration of Mars: Data from Rovers2003: Dark energy dominates universe2002: Small RNAs operate many cellular controls2001: Nanotechnology: The first molecular scale circuits2000: An explosion of gene sequencing data in bacteria and humans1999: Ability to isolate and maintain human pluripotent stem cells in culture1998: Evidence that the expansion of the universe is accelerating1997: Lamb cloned from a single cell of an adult sheep1996: Protease inhibitors and chemokines can block HIV replication1995: Confirmation of a new state of matter: Bose-Einstein Condensates1994: DNA repair enzyme system1993: Tumour suppressor protein, p531992: Nitric oxide1991: Buckyballs (Buckminster fullerenes)1990: Manufacture of synthetic diamonds1989: Polymerase chain reaction

The quality of exploratory research

A new criterion for the assessment of exploratory research proposals. Quality here is related to the probability of achieving a high-potential objective. It is dependent on: • the nature of the objective (open-ended research ~ higher quality)• the nature of the approaches to risk: minimise the risk? - i.e. action by the agency (~ lower quality) manage the risk?- i.e. action by the researcher (~ higher quality)

• the levels of trust (higher levels of trust ~ higher quality)

• the relative value of money (fewer competitors ~ higher quality)

• constraints on the use of funds (fewer constraints ~ higher quality)

Venture Research

Its primary objective is to help create a 21st century Planck Club

Ernest Rutherford (1871-1937)

“When money is short, there is no alternative but to think.”

Venture Research Strategy

Aims to stimulate unpredictable discoveries. Fosters individual freedom, and creates an environment in which applicants can select themselves.Some details:• Funds should be "free"- that is available for use as required• No boundaries• No deadlines• No milestones• No peer review• No priorities• No specific objectives other than to understand or explore• Researchers free to go in any direction at any time• Risk to be selected and managed by the researchers

Above all, it aims to foster mutual trust and respect

Risk and research

Risk ~ chanceRisk ~ danger

Research is difficult but it is not intrinsically risky

The more we associate risk with research the more we devalue research enterprise

Schematic: A spectrum of research (1)

Potential Impact

Probabilityof success

~100%

Low High

Mainstreamresearch

0

Schematic: A spectrum of research (2)

Potential Impact

Probabilityof success

~100%

Low High0

High-risk,high-rewardresearch

Schematic: A spectrum of research (3)

Potential Impact

Probabilityof success

~100%

Low High

VentureResearch

0

Venture Research: 1980 – 1990

• Supported exploratory academic research in any field, anywhere.

• Total BP expenditure ~ £15 million

• Final number of research programmes: 26

• Number of scientific “breakthroughs” ~ at least 14

• Subsequently, there has been strong industrial interest in their development. Estimated value over the next decade ~ £1 billion.

Some Venture Research DiscoveriesMike Bennett and Pat Heslop-Harrison: Discovered a new pathway for evolution and genetic controlTerry Clark: Pioneered the study of macroscopic quantum objectsStan Clough and Tony Horsewill: Solved the quantum-classical transition problem by developing new

relativity and quantum theories Steve Davies: Developed small artificial enzymes for efficient chiral selectionNigel Franks,Jean Louis Deneubourg, Simon Goss, Chris Tofts: Quantified the rules describing distributed intelligence in animalsHerbert Huppert and Steve Sparks: Pioneered the new field of geological fluid mechanicsJeff Kimble Pioneered squeezed states of lightGraham Parkhouse: Derived a novel theory of engineering design relating performance to shapes and materialsAlan Paton, Eunice Allen, Anne Glover: Discovered a new symbiosis between plants and bacteriaMartyn Poliakoff Ken Seddon: Transformed Green ChemistryColin Self: Demonstrated that antibodies in vivo can be activated by lightGene Stanley and José Teixeira: Discovered a new liquid-liquid phase transition in water that accounts

for many of water's anomalous propertiesHarry Swinney, Werner Horsthemke, Patrick DeKepper, Jean-Claude Roux, and Jacques Boissonade: Developed the first laboratory chemical reactors to yield sustained

spatial patterns - an essential precursor for the study of multi-dimensional chemistry

The UCL Venture Research initiative

UCL announced on 11 December 2008 the launching of “The Provost’s Venture Research Prize”.

The Provost will provide support for approved Venture Research projects for at least three years.

The standard set will be exceptionally high.

Typical costs might be £100K pa. We will be looking for the research that could radically change the way we think about an important subject; and for researchers whose main requirement is freedom.

It will be restricted to members of UCL initially, but we hope that other universities might wish to join our initiative. Each university would support from its own funds the cost of Venture Research projects each would approve.

Scientific Freedom: The Elixir of Civilization

Donald W Braben, Wiley 2008.

UK based Nobel Prize winners emerging the decade that work started,

and average per decade of real (2003) Government R&D spend

D W Braben 2009

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1920s 1930s 1940s 1950s 1960s 1970s 1980s 1990s 2000s

Starting decade

Number of winners Government R&D spend £billions

Number of UK based Nobel prize winners per decade actual and expected if average before ~ 1970

maintained

D W Braben 2009

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1890s 1900s 1910s 1920s 1930s 1940s 1950s 1960s 1970s 1980s 1990s 2000s

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