Research and Innovation Research and Innovation Addressing climate challenges through Research and Innovation policy Attilio Gambardella 'Climate Action

Research and Innovation


Addressing climate Addressing climate challenges through challenges through

Research and Innovation Research and Innovation policypolicy

Attilio Gambardella 'Climate Action and Earth Observation'

European Commission - DG Research and Innovation

EURASC 2015 Brest, 27 October 2015

PolicyPolicy Research and Innovation




Limiting warming to likely less than 2°C since 1861-1880 requires cumulative CO2 emissions to stay below 1000 GtC.

Until 2011, over 50% of this amount has been emitted.

© IPC

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Accounting for other forcings, the upper amount of cumulative CO2 emissions is 800 GtC; over 60% have been emitted by 2011.



• Warming is already producing sensible impacts, and even if

emissions are stopped today, the impacts will continue and

grow (e.g. sea-level rise).

• Adaptation is possible, but there are limits to it and costs

grow with warming.

• Emission trends are growing, and in the last decade they are

combined with a worsening of the carbon intensity of energy

production.

• Several mitigation trajectories are possible in order to stay

below 2°C warming; however, the later emissions peak and

decrease, the higher the costs will be.

We have a choice, and still a window of opportunity to act.



2015: a crossroad for climate

• IPCC AR5 set the scene: it is time for action.

• COP21 will arrive to an agreement on a new international

agreement – what ambition?

• Decarbonisation has already started – Chinese 2014 emissions

for energy production did not grow;

• Notwithstanding the ambition of the COP21 agreement, the

climate will continue to change for long time: we have to get

prepared for risks and opportunities.



Council Decision for COP21

Stresses •That in order to stay below 2°C, global GHG emissions need to peak by 2020 at the latest•Be reduced by at least 50% globally by 2050 compared to 1990•Be near zero or below by 2100

Recalls•The EU objective to reduce emissions by 80-95% by 2050 in comparison to 1990



What we are up to is a fast transition – from this situation:

GHG emission intensity vs. per capita, major economies, 2010-2030 Baseline



To this, if we want to stay on the 2°C trajectory:

GHG emission intensity vs. per capita, major economies, 2030-2050 Global mitigation scenario



EU decarbonisation vision for 2050EU decarbonisation vision for 2050Energy Roadmap 2050 – COM(2011)112

Reduction of energy sector emissions by 85% by 2050

Energy costs rising to 2030, coming down thereafter

5 scenarios

high efficiency

diversified supply technologies

high RES

delayed CCS (not commercial by 2030)

no nuclear

RES more than 50% of supply in all scenarios



A Research and Innovation strategy on climate action

• Based on two main avenues:• Low-carbon technologies:

Zero-carbon energy technologies (SET Plan, renewables and nuclear)CCS and transition technologiesDecarbonisation of transports (Green Vehicles PPP, Clean Sky JTI)Energy saving in industrial processes and in buildings (SPIRE and

EeB PPPs)Agriculture, forestry and the bioeconomy

• Climate change R&I (in SC5):Supporting the development of a market for Climate ServicesDeveloping cost-effective long-term decarbonisation pathways for

EuropeHot spots in the climate system: the ArcticNature-Based Solutions for Adaptation



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The EU is committed to spend at least 35% of the overall 80

billion Euro budget of Horizon 2020 for Climate-related

research and innovation actions

This includes: physical and social sciences, climate services,

energy and transport innovation, earth observation,

sustainable food production and water management, etc.

Climate change in Horizon2020The 2014-2020 EU framework programmeThe 2014-2020 EU framework programme

for research and innovationfor research and innovation



Climate action in Horizon 2020 is challenge-driven and solution-oriented, with focus on:

Developing climate services in Europe and worldwide,

also including actions to help the climate services market

grow – indicative budget of 50m€ for 2016-2017

Designing realistic and cost-effective decarbonisation

pathways – indicative budget of 30m€ for 2016-2017

Addressing critical climate change hot-spots like the Arctic

– indicative budget of 40m€ for 2016-2017

Mitigating and Adapting to climate change



The development of a market for Climate Services

Climate ServicesThe transformation of climate-related data – together with other relevant information – into customised products such as projections, forecasts, information, trends, economic analyses, assessments (including technology assessments), counselling on best practices, development and evaluation of solutions and any other service in relation to climate that may be of use for the society at large.

A Roadmap on Climate Services was published in February 2015 as the result of an Expert Group: http://bookshop.europa.eu/en/a-european-research-and-innovation-roadmap-for-climate-services-pbKI0614177/



Decision Making under a Changing Climate

• Enabling a range of decision makers to make more

informed decisions in relation to risks, opportunities and

response management

• Demand is relatively unknown (fragmented)

• The potential is largely untapped;

• Community and infrastructure insufficient to support

development; and services are primarily supply-driven and to

some degree user informed



• Move to user-driven and science informed – service

focus to climate services

• Enabling the growth of a "market of CS" where public

and private sector entities collaborate to realise the

vision

Decision Making under a Changing Climate



Climate services 2016 topics

Call 'Greening the economy':

Climate services

•Exploiting the added value of climate services 2016: Demonstration of climate services (IA)

•Climate services market research (RIA)



Towards a low-carbon EuropeTowards a low-carbon Europe

• H2020 will provide support within the Work

Programme 2016-17 for the co-design with

economic and societal actors of feasible, cost-

effective decarbonisation trajectories to achieve

the EU's medium and long-term climate

objectives, while maximising societal benefits and

economic prosperity.



Key areas to be addressedKey areas to be addressed• The risks and costs of climate change for Europe • Defining and assessing complex impact chains under different

climate change scenarios – from unmitigated to effectively mitigated – including macro-economic consequences

• Planning and management of technology transition • Co-designing technological transition ahead of time in different

sectors and with the involvement of innovators, regulators and investors, as well as for users and citizens so as to support stringent mitigation policies

• Assessment of the global mitigation efforts• Analysing the adequacy of EU and global climate action in view of

the long-term climate goal, as well as their impact on global industrial competitiveness, green growth, international trade, energy security, public finance and cross-border capital flows



Decarbonisation: 2016 topics

Call 'Greening the economy':

Towards a low-carbon Europe

•Pathways towards the decarbonisation and resilience of the European economy in the timeframe 2030-2050 and beyond (RIA)

Managing technology transition Assessment of the global mitigation efforts in the

perspective of the long-term climate goal



• Research and Innovation as a key component of the review of the EU Arctic Policy

• The key contribution of DG RTD is built around two pillars:

• The Arctic as a test bed for sustainable innovation

• The Arctic as a clear case for science diplomacy to act

The EU's policy approach towards theArctic Region



Research drivers

Support research activities on Polar Regions and Earth Observation

Regional impacts, risks and opportunities of economic development

Improvement of climate predictions and services for Europe and globally

International cooperation



The Galway Event:

Hosted by the Irish Prime Minister under the Irish Presidency

of the European Union

23rd May 2013 – Science Workshop24th May 2013 Signing ceremony of the"Galway Statement” establishing theTransatlantic Ocean Research Alliance

Canada-EU-US



The Arctic: 2016 topics

Call 'Blue growth – demonstrating an ocean of opportunities':

•BG-09-2016: An integrated Arctic observing system (RIA)

•BG-10-2016: Impact of Arctic changes on the weather and climate of the Northern Hemisphere (RIA)



Further information on the 2016-17 calls on the internet

• http://ec.europa.eu/research/participants/data/ref/h2020/wp/2016_2017/main/h2020-wp1617-climate_en.pdf

Thanks for your attention





EU INDC for climate negotiationsEU INDC for climate negotiationsKey elements of the EU INDC

Type Absolute reduction from base year

Coverage Economy wide

Scope CO2, methane, nitrous oxide, F-gases

Base year 1990

Period 2021-2030 inclusive

Reduction level At least 40% in 2030

Agriculture, forestry, other land uses included

Yes

% of Emissions covered 100%

Net Contribution of International Market Based Mechanisms

No contribution from international credits.

Planning process EUCO Oct.2014; legislative proposals

Fair and ambitious In-line with transition to a low emissions economy. Consistent with IPCC's assessment of reductions required from developed countries as a group of 80-95% by 2050. EU emissions peaked already.



•Aims at developing and delivering a strategic framework and mechanisms to prioritise polar science, optimise the use of polar infrastructure, and enhance coordination with international research organisations and programmes

Horizon 2020

Documents

Research and Innovation Research and Innovation Addressing climate challenges through Research and Innovation policy Attilio Gambardella 'Climate Action