17
Hindawi Publishing Corporation Journal of Climatology Volume 2013, Article ID 680565, 16 pages http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2013/680565 Research Article Climatic Variation at Thumba Equatorial Rocket Launching Station, India K. V. S. Namboodiri, P. K. Dileep, and Koshy Mammen Meteorology Facility, umba Equatorial Rocket Launching Station (TERLS), Vikram Sarabhai Space Centre (VSSC), Indian Space Research Organization, iruvananthapuram 695 022, India Correspondence should be addressed to K. V. S. Namboodiri; [email protected] Received 22 June 2013; Accepted 25 September 2013 Academic Editors: A. V. Eliseev and E. Paoletti Copyright © 2013 K. V. S. Namboodiri et al. is is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited. Long-term (45 years) diversified surface meteorological records from umba Equatorial Rocket Launching Station (TERLS), India, were collected and analysed to study the long-term changes in the overall climatology, climatology pertained to a particular observational time, mean daily climatology in temperature, inter-annual variability in temperature, interannual variability in surface pressure, and rainfall for the main Indian seasons—South West and North East monsoons and inter-annual mean monthly anomaly structure in temperature. Results on various analyses show strong and vivid features contributed by climate change for this South Peninsular Indian Arabian Sea Coastal Station, and this paper may be a first time venture which discusses climate change imparted perturbations in several meteorological parameters in different time domains, like a specific time, daily, monthly, and interannually over a station. Being a coastal rocket launching station, climatic change information is crucial for long-term planning of its facilities as well as for various rocket range operational demands. 1. Introduction Climate change refers to a statistically strong and significant variation in either the average state of the climate or in its variability, persisting for an extended period, typically in decades or longer. Short-period oscillations are statistically insignificant in the scenario of long-term climate change context. Climate change may be due to natural internal processes on earth (atmospheric, seismic, volcanic, and oceanic), external forces (variation in solar activity, rotation and revolution of earth), and more recently anthropogenic activities. It is now well established that anthropogenic activities cause intensification of the greenhouse effect and thereby contribute to the climate change. e paper by Oreskes [1] highlighted the listings in the ISI database on climate change from several abstracts published in refereed scientific journals between 1993 and 2003. In India, the first time document on the concern of greenhouse effect and possible mitigation measures was published in the Science Reporter, CSIR, by Ayyar [2]. Several papers were published in a special session in Current Science (volume 90, 2006) focussing the concerns over the socioeconomic and scientific aspects attributed to climate change on Indian scenario. To develop high-resolution cli- mate change simulations over the Indian region, Providing Regional Climates for Impact Studies (PRECIS) modelling system was applied [3], and it was observed that the warming is monotonously widespread over India with substantial spatial differences in the projected rainfall changes. Different data sets have been used in order to examine the monotonic change in the level of global temperature by vari- ous investigators [47]. From the diversified methodologies adopted, it is observed that the global surface temperature has risen by 0.74 C with an error of ±0.18 C when estimated by a linear trend over the last 100 years (1906–2005) and 0.07 C ± 0.02 C per decade. An executive summary is made available by Solomon et al. [8] on climate change in the fourth assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Climate change features are local or regional highly influenced by agricultural practices, urbanisation, heat island effect, changing irrigation, aerosol modifications, desertification, deforestation, and decay processes of organic

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Page 1: Research Article Climatic Variation at Thumba Equatorial Rocket Launching Station, India · 2016. 8. 22. · Research Article Climatic Variation at Thumba Equatorial Rocket Launching

Hindawi Publishing CorporationJournal of ClimatologyVolume 2013 Article ID 680565 16 pageshttpdxdoiorg1011552013680565

Research ArticleClimatic Variation at Thumba Equatorial RocketLaunching Station India

K V S Namboodiri P K Dileep and Koshy Mammen

Meteorology Facility Thumba Equatorial Rocket Launching Station (TERLS) Vikram Sarabhai Space Centre (VSSC)Indian Space Research Organization Thiruvananthapuram 695 022 India

Correspondence should be addressed to K V S Namboodiri sambhukvyahoocom

Received 22 June 2013 Accepted 25 September 2013

Academic Editors A V Eliseev and E Paoletti

Copyright copy 2013 K V S Namboodiri et al This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons AttributionLicense which permits unrestricted use distribution and reproduction in any medium provided the original work is properlycited

Long-term (45 years) diversified surface meteorological records from Thumba Equatorial Rocket Launching Station (TERLS)India were collected and analysed to study the long-term changes in the overall climatology climatology pertained to a particularobservational timemeandaily climatology in temperature inter-annual variability in temperature interannual variability in surfacepressure and rainfall for themain Indian seasonsmdashSouthWest andNorth Eastmonsoons and inter-annualmeanmonthly anomalystructure in temperature Results on various analyses show strong and vivid features contributed by climate change for this SouthPeninsular Indian Arabian Sea Coastal Station and this paper may be a first time venture which discusses climate change impartedperturbations in several meteorological parameters in different time domains like a specific time daily monthly and interannuallyover a station Being a coastal rocket launching station climatic change information is crucial for long-term planning of its facilitiesas well as for various rocket range operational demands

1 Introduction

Climate change refers to a statistically strong and significantvariation in either the average state of the climate or in itsvariability persisting for an extended period typically indecades or longer Short-period oscillations are statisticallyinsignificant in the scenario of long-term climate changecontext Climate change may be due to natural internalprocesses on earth (atmospheric seismic volcanic andoceanic) external forces (variation in solar activity rotationand revolution of earth) and more recently anthropogenicactivities It is now well established that anthropogenicactivities cause intensification of the greenhouse effect andthereby contribute to the climate change The paper byOreskes [1] highlighted the listings in the ISI database onclimate change from several abstracts published in refereedscientific journals between 1993 and 2003

In India the first time document on the concern ofgreenhouse effect and possible mitigation measures waspublished in the Science Reporter CSIR by Ayyar [2]Several papers were published in a special session in Current

Science (volume 90 2006) focussing the concerns over thesocioeconomic and scientific aspects attributed to climatechange on Indian scenario To develop high-resolution cli-mate change simulations over the Indian region ProvidingRegional Climates for Impact Studies (PRECIS) modellingsystem was applied [3] and it was observed that the warmingis monotonously widespread over India with substantialspatial differences in the projected rainfall changes

Different data sets have been used in order to examine themonotonic change in the level of global temperature by vari-ous investigators [4ndash7] From the diversified methodologiesadopted it is observed that the global surface temperaturehas risen by 074∘C with an error of plusmn018∘C when estimatedby a linear trend over the last 100 years (1906ndash2005) and007∘C plusmn 002∘C per decade An executive summary is madeavailable by Solomon et al [8] on climate change in the fourthassessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on ClimateChange (IPCC) Climate change features are local or regionalhighly influenced by agricultural practices urbanisationheat island effect changing irrigation aerosol modificationsdesertification deforestation and decay processes of organic

2 Journal of Climatology

materials [9ndash14] Long-term changes in maximum temper-ature minimum temperature and their range have beenanalyzed over two stations in Cyprus by Price et al [15] whoestablished a reduction in range and thereby a possibility inincreased cloud cover and tropospheric aerosols Recentlyseasonal variability in mean sea level pressure extremes overthe 11 zones of India and adjoining sea area has been studiedby Singh et al [16]

In the present paper features on surface climate changeoverThumba Equatorial Rocket Launching Station (TERLS)a coastal station near the South tip of Peninsular Indiaare critically examined TERLS was established as an inter-national rocket launching station dedicated to the UnitedNations for conducting meteorological and sounding rocketexperiments on the geomagnetic equator Meteorologygroup TERLS has one of the heaviest responsibilities inthe range to cater (i) weather forecasting and data needs ofsounding rocket launch operations (in planning pad opera-tions and launching) (ii) climatological briefing to workingcrews including scientists to plan experiments (iii) Organisevarious met Observations (iv) processing analyses storageand retrieval of various met data (Class I surface observa-tory autoweather stations sonic anemometers 50m micrometeorological flux tower facility meteorological balloonlaunches rocket chaff derived wind data) and provide thedata for users demand For the planning of a scientificmission the variability of climate is very crucial and therebythe importance of the present study on the climate changeperspective Importance of weather factors affecting rocketoperations can be found elsewhere in detail [17 18] Steadyincrease in temperature anomaly at different levels in thetroposphere over TERLSwas investigated and documented inthe Space research in India [19] Joseph and Simon [20] haveinvestigated weakening trend of the South West monsooncurrent through Peninsular India Dash et al [21] reportedthe decreasing frequency of monsoon depressions over theIndian region and Krishnakumar et al [22] have analysedsignificant decrease in South West monsoon rainfall whileincrease in post monsoon season over the whole KeralaState (also a meteorological subdivision) India From thevoluminous data bank the present study analyses dailymonthly seasonal and interannual variability on differentmeteorological parameters based on both eye reading instru-ments and non-instrumental practices in cloud and visibil-ity observations as per World Meteorological Organization(WMO) practices Till the inception of long-term unin-terrupted data collection through instrument-based cloudand visibility measurements data collection from such non-instrumental means solely vested on conventional methodsin surface meteorological observations adopted worldwide isto be accepted for a reasonable climatology extraction Thepresent work examines the imprints made by the climaticchange on severalmeteorological parameters in different timedomains like a specific time daily monthly and interannu-ally unlike the climate change associated variations on a singlemeteorological parameter like temperature or rainfall alonehave dealt in most of the climatic change studies

N Indiaoutline map

China(Tibet)Nepal

Pakistan

Bhutan

Arabian SeaBay of Bengal

BangladeshMyanmar

Thumba (8∘32998400998400N76∘52998400998400 67 amsl)E

Figure 1 Location shows the class-I surface meteorological obser-vatory at Thumba

2 Data and Methodology

A class I surface meteorological observatory was establishedat TERLS (8∘3210158401015840N76∘ 5210158401015840E 67 amsl) by India Meteorolog-ical Department (IMD) approximately 70m away from thecoastline of the Arabian Sea coast (Figure 1) TERLS is situ-ated hardly 8 km West North West of Thiruvananthapuramthe capital city of the Kerala state of India Various meteo-rological data from 0830 IST (Indian Standard Time IST =GMT + 0530 hr) observations for a period of 45 years (1964ndash2008) except for pressure where it is hourly data (1973ndash2008) are used in order to investigate changes encounteredinmeteorological parameters due to climate changeThe dataused are obtained from the following measurements at 0830IST (1964ndash2008) namely (i) maximum temperature (past24 hr reported at 0830 IST) (ii) minimum temperature (past24 hr reported at 0830 IST) (iii) past 24 hr rainfall (reportedat 0830 IST) (iv) dry-bulb temperature at 0830 IST (v) wet-bulb temperature at 0830 IST (vi) relative humidity at 0830IST (vii) soil temperature at 0830 IST (viii) non-instrumentaleye observations on clouds and visibility at 0830 IST (ix)wind speed and direction at 0830 IST and (x) hourly surfacepressure (1973ndash2008) Table 1 provides details on variousinstrumentation exposure maintenance data span and thelowest and the highest in maximum absolute error valuesamong various monthly statistics from 1964 to 2008

The above mentioned 45 years of data have partitionedinto two climatological slots of 30 years each namely 1964to 1993 and from 1979 to 2008 respectively called as pastdata for the former and present data for the later Maximumabsolute error values in the total data set (1962ndash2008) are the

Journal of Climatology 3

Table1Detailson

instrumentatio

ndatausedand

theo

bservedvaria

tionin

maxim

umabsoluteerrorinmon

thlymeanused

inthed

iscussio

nof

climatolog

yat0830

IST

Sno

Parameter

Datau

sed

Instrument

Height(agl)

(cm)

Expo

sure

Lowestand

high

est

maxim

umabsolute

error

Make

Maintenance

and

calib

ratio

nprotocol

1Maxim

umtemperature

(∘ C)

1964

ndash2008

Maxim

umthermom

eter

(Mercury-in

-glassthermom

eter)

122

Stevensonscreen

0087to

0132(∘ C

)IM

D

Daily

weeklymon

thly

halfyearly

annu

aland

perio

dic

2Minim

umtemperature

(∘ C)

1964

ndash2008

Minim

umthermom

eter

(spirit-in

-glass)

122

Stevensonscreen

0061to0145(∘ C

)IM

D

3Dry-bulbtemperature

(∘ C)

1964

ndash2008

Drybu

lbthermom

eter

(mercury-in

-glassthermom

eter)

122

Stevensonscreen

0088to

0125(∘ C

)IM

D

4Ra

infall(m

m)

Non

recordingrain

gaugeo

fcollector

area

20square

cm0

Groun

d

4Wet-bulbtemperature

(∘ C)

1964

ndash2008

Wet-bulbthermom

eter

122

Stevensonscreen

006

to0146(∘ C

)IM

D

5Re

lativeh

umidity

()

1964

ndash2008

Drybu

lbthermom

eterw

etbu

lbthermom

eterand

psychrom

eter

table

122

Stevensonscreen

0512to

0916(

)IM

D

6Soiltemperature

(∘ C)

1964

ndash2008

Soilthermom

eter

inmetallic

tube

minus5

0201to0261(∘

C)IM

D

7Pressure

(mb)

1974ndash2008

Aneroid

barograph(diaph

ragm

type)

670

mam

slIM

D

8Windspeed

1964

ndash2008

Anemom

eter

300

0043to

024

(ms)

IMDD

ynalab

9Winddirection

1964

ndash2008

Windvane

300

With

in1d

egree

IMDD

ynalab

4 Journal of Climatology

summation of errors [23] of past and present data sets Indi-vidual error is computed as the ratio of standard deviation tothe number of observations of a particular data set Trenberth[24] has established the climate shift as a prominent upwardtrend in temperature after 1976 In order to include thisobservation influence half portion (15 years) period from1979 to 1993 ismade common in the latter half of past data andin the former part of present data The difference obtainedamong present data and past data has been represented as Δin the discussions throughout To see genuineness in findingsattributed to climate change Δ values are compared withabsolute errors so as to see that Δ do not fall within absoluteerrors of corresponding meteorological parameters

3 Results and Discussion

31 Δ Climatology of the Past 24 hr Observations Maximumtemperature minimum temperature and 24 hr accumulatedrainfall are the only 3meteorological parameters registered at0830 IST having effect of the past 24 hr variability behaviourClimatology for various parameters has been derived for pastdata and present data and presented in Tables 2 3 4 and5 in which months that constitute the different seasons arementioned Derived Δ values are also incorporated in theabove tables Comparison between past data and present datamaximum temperature climatology shows marked increasein present data climatology in relation to the past datacounterpart and thereby positive values alone are observedin Δ Δ values vary from +001∘C in the North East monsoon(NE monsoon) month November to +043∘C in the pre-South West monsoon (SW monsoon) month May The NEmonsoon season comprises October and November whereasthe four months from June to September designate SWmonsoon season which are the main two Indian seasonsIn minimum temperature all Δ values are positive withmaximum value in the winter month February with a value+053∘C The observations among maximum and minimumtemperature climatology derived in past data and presentdata along with Δ values can infer that the minimum dailytemperatures have generally increased at a larger rate thanthe maximum daily temperatures Karl et al [25] studied thepossible cause of increased urbanisation effects and Rebetezand Beniston [26] justified the result of increased cloud coverin the large increase in minimum temperature and smallincrease in maximum temperatures

From each individual daily maximum and minimumtemperature mean daily temperatures ((maximum temper-ature + minimum temperature)2) are computed and furtherderive the past data and present data climatologies of meantemperatures Only positive Δ values are observed through-out the year which clearly indicate that the temperature overthis tropical coastal station is increasing Temperature clima-tologies have shown the tropical monsoonal characteristic oftwo maxima and two minima in monthly variation

The diurnal temperature range is calculated from indi-vidual maximum and minimum temperature value andcalculated past data and present data temperature rangeclimatologies Range climatologies are featured by annualvariation The prominent feature of negative Δ values in

range is seen which shows that the difference betweenmaximum temperature and minimum temperature in a dayis decreasing Also the larger rate of increase in minimumtemperatures than maximum temperatures results in thesenegative Δ values in the diurnal temperature range

The rainfall Δ shows decrease in rainfall in present datafor the summermonthsApril andMayWell-marked negativeΔ values of about 21mm are observed in the SW monsoonmonths (JunendashAugust) An increase in rainfall activity isdetected in the SW monsoon month September and in theNE monsoon months October and November (debted tomonsoonal climate) with maximum value of +3650mm inOctober The station weather is dominated by convectivemesoscale systems during the NE monsoon Probably thisinvestigation poses the doubt about whether suchmeso-scaleweather phenomena like thunderstorm formations are onincreasing trend duringNEMonsoon and thereby an increasein Δ

32 Climatology of a Particular Observation at 0830 ISTAnalyses are carried out on different parameters collected at0830 IST Δ in dry bulb temperature wet bulb temperatureand dew point temperature obtained from the two climatolo-gies show only positive values It ranges from +060∘C in Julyto +101∘C in January for dry bulb temperature Variations inΔ among the SW monsoon months are less in general for allthe above three variables even though a maximum value inΔ is observed in dry bulb temperature The less variation ofwet bulb and dew point temperatures may be as a result ofmoisture laden atmosphere during the period which impartscorresponding variations in the moisture parameters like wetbulb temperature and dew point temperature

Station relative humidity values at 0830 IST show morethan 70 throughout the year with maximum in SW mon-soon of the order 89 Low negative values in Δ relativehumidity are detected as the air becomes drier in present datacompared to past As the air is getting dried both dew pointand the wet bulb temperatures are supposed to show negativeΔ values but the feature is not detectedThis may be inferredas the dry bulb temperature is the key parameter in elevatingΔ values of both dew point and wet bulb temperatures andthe meagre relative humidity decrease in present data thanpast data is insignificant to impartΔ changes in dewpoint andwet bulb temperatures Climatologies of RH also have showntwomaxima and twominimawhereas the secondaryminimaaround the NE monsoon is shallow in character

Significant positive Δ values are observed among the twoclimatologies in soil temperature with a low value of +099∘Cto a high of +235∘C in July and January respectively Perhapsthe Δ increase observed in the winter months January andFebruary may contribute reduction in radiational coolingwhich leads to a reduction in fog formation probability overthe station Soil temperature climatologies also have showntropical monsoonal type with two maxima and minima

Wind speed (both scalar and resultant) is decreased inpresent climatologies Mathematically resultant wind speedshall be determined as the square root of the sum of thesquares of zonal and meridional wind components Theencountered Δ values that rise to a maximum value of

Journal of Climatology 5

Table2Clim

atolog

yandΔof

maxim

umtemperaturem

inim

umtemperaturem

eandaily

temperaturem

eanrangeintemperatureand

mon

thlyrainfall

Mon

thMaxim

umtemperature∘

CMinim

umtemperature∘

CMeandaily

temperature∘

CMeanrangeintemperature∘

CMon

thlyrainfallmm

1964

ndash1993

1979ndash2008Δ

1964

ndash1993

1979ndash2008Δ

1964

ndash1993

1979ndash2008Δ

1964

ndash1993

1979ndash2008Δ

1964

ndash1993

1979ndash2008Δ

JAN

3259

3276

+017

2130

2158

+028

2694

2716

+022

1129

1117

minus012

1180

1110

minus070

FEB

3312

3332

+020

2189

2242

+053

2751

2787

+036

1124

1091minus033

1620

1640

+020

MAR

3384

3407

+023

2375

2413

+038

2878

2909

+031

1006

992

minus014

3320

3480

+160

APR

3425

3441

+016

2524

2551

+027

2976

2995

+019

905

888

minus017

10410

9940minus470

MAY

3303

3346

+043

2514

2550

+036

2912

2948

+036

797

796

minus001

1792

016580minus1340

JUN

3036

3071

+035

2399

2436

+037

2720

2753

+033

643

635

minus008

29270

27220minus2050

JUL

2938

2948

+010

2336

2379

+043

2638

2663

+025

603

568

minus035

20300

1813

0minus2170

AUG

2927

2960

+033

2339

2380

+041

2635

2670

+035

592

579

minus013

1415

012090minus2060

SEP

3034

3070

+036

2368

2400

+032

2704

2734

+030

671

667

minus004

15820

1710

0+1280

OCT

3119

3153

+034

2374

2404

+030

2750

2776

+026

753

744

minus009

20490

2414

0+3

650

NOV

3176

3177

+001

2321

2357

+036

2748

2767

+019

853

820

minus033

16680

17070

+390

DEC

3230

3256

+026

2244

2244

+000

2735

2750

+015

983

1011

+028

6660

5370minus1290

DEC

JANand

FEB

winterMAR

APR

and

MAY

sum

merJUNJULAU

Gand

SEP

SWmon

soon

OCT

NOV

NEmon

soon

6 Journal of Climatology

Table3Clim

atolog

yandΔof

dry-bu

lbtemperaturew

etbu

lbtemperaturedew

pointtem

peraturerelativeh

umidityand

soiltemperature

Mon

thDry-bulbtemperature

(0830IST)∘

CWet-bulbtemperature

(0830IST)∘

CDew

pointtem

perature

(0830IST)∘

CRe

lativeh

umidity

()

(0830IST)

Soiltemperature

(0830IST)∘

C1964

ndash1993

1979ndash2008Δ

1964

ndash1993

1979ndash2008Δ

1964

ndash1993

1979ndash2008Δ

1964

ndash1993

1979ndash2008Δ

1964

ndash1993

1979ndash2008Δ

JAN

2606

2707

+101

2233

2290

+057

2035

2069

+034

7136

6885minus251

2903

3138

+235

FEB

2677

2771

+094

2304

2355

+051

2112

2143

+031

7176

6941minus235

3041

3254

+213

MAR

2831

2920

+089

2458

2494

+036

2281

2294

+013

7255

6953

minus302

3280

3425

+145

APR

2929

3000

+071

2609

2630

+021

2471

2472

+001

7656

7361minus295

3373

3511

+138

MAY

2870

2943

+073

2612

2643

+031

2502

2517

+015

8094

7833

minus261

3246

3416

+170

JUN

2661

2733

+072

2520

2557

+037

2455

2481

+026

8851

8643minus208

2955

3099

+144

JUL

2576

2636

+060

2455

2488

+033

2395

2421

+026

8980

8803minus17

72901

3000

+099

AUG

2590

2660

+070

2460

2496

+036

2397

2422

+025

8940

8698minus242

2960

3096

+136

SEP

2662

2737

+075

2484

2521

+037

2402

2425

+023

8577

8345minus232

3110

3223

+113

OCT

2681

2759

+078

2490

2533

+043

2402

2432

+030

8501

8261minus240

3140

3245

+105

NOV

2690

2763

+073

2440

2486

+046

2327

2358

+031

8084

7935minus14

93099

3202

+103

DEC

2670

2759

+089

2335

2372

+037

2161

2174

+013

7448

7139

minus309

3052

3209

+157

DEC

JANand

FEB

winterMAR

APR

and

MAY

sum

merJUNJULAU

Gand

SEP

SWmon

soon

OCT

NOV

NEmon

soon

Journal of Climatology 7

Table4Clim

atolog

yandΔof

visib

ilitycodelow

cloud

highclo

udand

totalcloud

Mon

thVisib

ilitycode

(0830IST)

Lowclo

ud(0830IST)

Middlec

loud

(0830IST)

Highclo

ud(0830IST)

Totalcloud

(0830IST)

1964

ndash1993

1979ndash2008Δ

1964

ndash1993

1979ndash2008Δ

1964

ndash1993

1979ndash2008Δ

1964

ndash1993

1979ndash2008Δ

1964

ndash1993

1979ndash2008Δ

JAN

9679

9698

+019

055

047

minus008

081

078

minus003

118

135

+017

251

253

+002

FEB

9675

9691

+016

048

047

minus001

066

058

minus008

108

116

+008

221

217

minus004

MAR

9661

9688

+027

062

071

+009

054

037

minus017

106

121

+015

220

224

+004

APR

9677

9686

+009

125

157

+032

100

087

minus013

172

179

+007

391

394

+003

MAY

9670

9668minus002

202

208

+006

145

143minus002

156

164

+008

487

468

minus019

JUN

9626

9643

+017

286

284

minus002

231

237

+006

116

149

+033

596

590

minus006

JUL

9610

9637

+027

274

274

+000

250

282

+032

126

167

+041

596

606

+010

AUG

9641

9658

+017

227

238

+011

231

228

minus003

131

186

+055

563

568

+005

SEP

9648

9663

+015

216

215

minus001

163

162minus001

134

162

+028

493

490

minus003

OCT

9676

9670minus006

175

196

+021

207

214

+007

129

173

+044

492

506

+014

NOV

9668

9665minus003

144

155

+011

186

194

+008

126

172

+046

440

465

+025

DEC

9681

9679minus002

101

091

minus010

140

115minus025

120

140

+020

356

325

minus031

DEC

JANand

FEB

winterMAR

APR

and

MAY

sum

merJUNJULAU

Gand

SEP

SWmon

soon

OCT

NOV

NEmon

soon

8 Journal of Climatology

Table 5 Climatology and Δ of wind speed (scalar) wind speed (resultant) and wind steadiness factor

MonthWind speed (scalar)(0830 IST) msminus1

Wind speed (resultant)(0830 IST) msminus1

Wind steadiness factor(0830 IST) ()

1964ndash1993 1979ndash2008 Δ 1979ndash2008 Δ 1964ndash1993 1979ndash2008 Δ

JAN 104 075 minus029 071 033 minus038 6889 4448 minus2441FEB 107 081 minus026 073 038 minus035 6795 4736 minus2059MAR 121 100 minus021 083 056 minus027 6849 5615 minus1234APR 129 100 minus029 092 063 minus029 7146 6315 minus831MAY 145 104 minus041 114 075 minus039 7840 7244 minus596JUN 149 109 minus040 103 08 minus023 6897 7365 +468JUL 168 135 minus033 115 094 minus021 6808 6960 +152AUG 161 131 minus030 136 105 minus031 8468 7999 minus469SEP 157 110 minus047 117 081 minus036 7457 7406 minus051OCT 110 082 minus028 064 040 minus024 5869 4926 minus943NOV 097 074 minus023 049 023 minus026 5029 3117 minus1912DEC 101 075 minus026 067 037 minus030 6644 4888 minus1756DEC JAN and FEB winter MAR APR and MAY summer JUN JUL AUG and SEP SWmonsoon OCT NOV NE monsoon

the order 05ms are due to decrease in wind speeds inthe present data climatology in comparison with past dataclimatology Wind steadiness factor values at 0830 IST arecomputed as the ratio of mean resultant wind speed to meanscalar wind (average value of scalar wind speeds) expressed in and the two slot climatologies are made Wind steadinessfactor is a general meteorological technique in order to derivethe quantitative estimate of steadiness of wind direction[27] The feature of losing controllability of blowing windsfrom a specific direction (computed from wind steadiness)as the demand of a particular season might be justified asa result of heat island effect of the very fast developingurbanisation hardly 8 km East South East of the observatoryand the increasing vehicle populations and thereby drasticmodifications in at 0830 IST observations which belongto land breeze prevalence over the station in the non-SWmonsoonal months (up to a maximum of 20 decrease)Throughout the day strong seabreeze is in prevalence in theSW monsoon months Even in the SW monsoon which isdominantly associated with unidirectional wind flow slightdeteriorations in the steadiness of the wind directions haveobserved Both the above observations brought out thephenomenal changes in the steadiness of offshorewinds (landbreeze) at 0830 IST during the non-SW monsoonal monthsat greater extend and onshore wind (sea breeze) at 0830 ISTduring the SW monsoon steadiness in smaller grades Thefeature of very prominent decrease in direction steadinessin preset data to the past is clearly detected As negative Δdominance exists in the non-SW monsoon months wherechange over of land-sea breezes are so pronounced for thestation this observation may be further studied in order tocheck any possible modifications in the meso-scale meteoro-logical phenomena like sealand breeze thunderstorms dueto associated thermal and moisture environment changes

Visibility and cloud climatologies are also studied Asthese observational procedures are non-instrumental thedata is too subjective and quality observation is solely vested

260265270275280285290295300305

Tem

pera

ture

(∘C)

(a)

00040812162024

Date

Stan

dard

devi

atio

n (∘

C)

1964ndash19931979ndash2008

Jan

1 10 20 10 20M

ar 1 10 20

Apr

1 10 20M

ay 1 20

Jun

1 10 20Ju

l 1 10 20A

ug 1 10 20

Sep

1 10

Oct

1 10 20N

ov 1 10 20

Dec

1 10 20 D

ec 3

1

(b)

Figure 2 (a) Mean daily temperature climatologies in 1964ndash19931979ndash2008 and their differences along with (b) standard deviationof corresponding climatologies

on the experience of the weather observer The observationshows better visibility codes in the present data climatologyA visibility code of 96 and above signifies that a well-definedobject (like a mobile phone tower) at least 1 km far can bedistinctly differentiable Among various cloud climatologydominant positiveΔ values are existed in high clouds throughout the year whichmay be pointed out as one of the reason forsubdued albedo effect which enhances greenhouse effect and

Journal of Climatology 9

50556065707580859095

100105110115120125

Tem

pera

ture

rang

e (∘ C)

(a)

0004081216202428

Date

Stan

dard

devi

atio

n(∘

C)

1964ndash19931979ndash2008

Jan

1 10 20 10 20M

ar 1 10 20

Apr

1 10 20M

ay 1 20

Jun

1 10 20Ju

l 1 10 20A

ug 1 10 20

Sep

1 10

Oct

1 10 20N

ov 1 10 20

Dec

1 10 20 D

ec 3

1

(b)

Figure 3 (a) Mean daily temperature range climatologies in 1964ndash1993 1979ndash2008 and their differences along with (b) standarddeviation of corresponding climatologies

285290295300305310315320325330335340345350

Max

imum

tem

pera

ture

(∘C)

(a)

00040812162024

Jan

1 10 20 10 20M

ar 1 10 20

Apr 1 10 20

May

1 20Ju

n 1 10 20

Jul 1 10 20

Aug

1 10 20Se

p 1 10

Oct

1 10 20N

ov 1 10 20

Dec

1 10 20 D

ec 3

1

Date

Stan

dard

devi

atio

n(∘

C)

1964ndash19931979ndash2008

(b)

Figure 4 (a) Maximum daily temperature climatologies in 1964ndash1993 1979ndash2008 and their differences along with (b) standarddeviation of corresponding climatologies

200205210215220225230235240245250255260265

Min

imum

tem

pera

ture

(∘C)

(a)

00040812162024

Date

Stan

dard

devi

atio

n(∘

C)

1964ndash19931979ndash2008

Jan

1 10 20Fe

b 1 10 20

Mar

1 10 20A

pr 1 10 20

May

1 10 20Ju

n 1 10 20

Jul 1 10 20

Aug

1 10 20Se

p 1 10 20

Oct

1 10 20N

ov 1 10 20

Dec

1 10 20 D

ec 3

1

(b)

Figure 5 (a) Minimum daily temperature climatologies in 1964ndash1993 1979ndash2008 and their differences along with (b) standarddeviation of corresponding climatologies

0102030405060708090100

Less than zero Zero Greater than zero0

20406080

100120140160180200220240260280300320340360

Occ

urre

nces

(day

s)

Daily max tempDaily min temp

Daily mean tempRange

Occ

urre

nces

()

Figure 6 Difference statistics for 365 days between present data andpast data on daily maximum minimum mean temperatures andrange in temperature within a day

hereby surface temperature escalationThis may be the resultof number of high cloud types (Ci and Cc) are less comparedto the varieties of low and middle cloud types which enableseasy estimation for the observer while making counts onhigh clouds The increase in high cloud climatology valuesin present data may be the result of increase in air trafficresulted contrails over the region which results an increasein cirrus cloud formations due to tropical dynamics unlike

10 Journal of Climatology

271273275277279281283285

Mea

n te

mpe

ratu

re (∘

C)

101214161820

Stan

dard

devi

atio

n(∘

C)

dydx = 0013

r = 0891

(a)

minus10minus08minus06minus04minus02

00204060810

Tem

pera

ture

anom

aly

(∘C)

1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010(year)

dydx = 0013

r = 0891

Mean temperature11pt soothed line

Fitted lineStandard deviation

(b)

Figure 7 (a) Yearly mean temperature along with standard devia-tion and (b) anomaly

308312316320324328

1517192123252729dydx = 0012

r = 0725

Max

imum

tem

pera

ture

(∘C)

Stan

dard

devi

atio

n(∘

C)

(a)

minus12minus08minus04

0040812

1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010(year)

dydx = 0012

r = 0725

Tem

pera

ture

anom

aly

(∘C)

Standard deviationFitted line

11pt soothed lineMaximum temperature

(b)

Figure 8 (a) Yearly mean maximum temperature along withstandard deviation and (b) anomaly

microphysical processes in mid-latitudes as in Minnis et al[28] Zerefos et al [29] Eleftheratos et al [30] have studiedthe variability of cirrus clouds over the tropics governedby the activity of El Nino Southern Oscillation the QuasiBiennial Oscillation and solar activity Possible radiationbudget alterations modifications at the time of occurrenceof minimum and maximum temperatures are to be criticallyexamined as a part of future investigations Prominent twomaxima (secondarymaximum is very shallower compared to

dydx = 0014

r = 0952

226230234238242246

1012141618202224

Min

imum

tem

pera

ture

(∘C)

Stan

dard

dev

iatio

n(∘

C)

(a)

minus12minus08minus04

0040812

1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

dydx = 0014

r = 0952

(year)

Standard deviationFitted line11pt soothed lineMinimum temperature

Tem

pera

ture

anom

aly

(∘C)

(b)

Figure 9 (a) Yearly mean minimum temperature along withstandard deviation and (b) anomaly

dydx = 0002

r = 0190

1620242832

Stan

dard

dev

iatio

n

6670747882869094

Tem

pera

ture

rang

e(∘ C)

(a)

minus12minus08minus04

0040812

dydx = 0002

r = 0190

1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

Tem

pera

ture

rang

ean

omal

y(∘

C)

(year)

Temperature range11pt soothed line

Fitted lineStandard deviation

(b)

Figure 10 (a) Yearly mean temperature range along with standarddeviation and (b) anomaly

the primary) and two minima were seen in middle high andtotal cloud climatology

33 Mean Daily Climatology in Temperature Mean of dailymaximum minimum mean and range in temperaturebetween daily maximum and minimum temperatures arecomputed and depicted for the 365 days in a year (Figures2 3 4 and 5) along with their standard deviations Theincrease inmean daily values in present data temperatures arequite obvious and standard deviation values are fallen within

Journal of Climatology 11

(year)

123456789

101112

(mon

th)

1964 1966 1968 1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008

No data

20181614121008060402minus00minus02minus04minus06minus08minus10minus12minus14minus16minus18minus20

(∘C)

Figure 11 Maximum temperature anomaly

27∘C for all the four mean daily climatologies A differencestatistics for 365 days between present data to past data ismade and is shown in Figure 6 Out of 365 days more than80 mean daily maximum minimum and mean tempera-tures are distributed as greater than zero occurrences in thedifference statistics An elevated frequency of occurrence ofmore than 65 under less than zero class is a concrete featurewhich implies that the range amongmaximumandminimumtemperature is alarmingly diminishing

34 Interannual Variability Inter annual variability has crit-ically examined for annual mean of minimum maximumand mean temperatures annual rainfall in the SW and NEmonsoon over the station and for theKerala State and averageannual surface pressure in the SW and NE monsoons forthe station Each inter annual variability data has undergonean 11 year moving average with end point extrapolation tillthe raw data availability to bring out long term trend andthe trend line also has shown in each inter annual variabilityfigures similar to Krishnakumar et al [22] for the interannualvariability of rainfall over Kerala Interpolated values areobtained for each year from the trend and such a data setobtained has been subjected to statistical significant testinterpolated data has not taken for a particular year if theraw data point is missing for the corresponding year Thismethod has enabled no reduction in the degrees of freedom(df ) To confirm the statistical significance on various 11year moving averaged data and also to assess the strength ofsample correlation coefficient (119903) linear regression t-test werecarried out and the results are presented (Table 6) Generallystrong and significant linear trend variations are observedEven though linear trends of maximum and minimumtemperatures have shown strong and significant statisticaltrends the derived variable-temperature range has resulteda weak and insignificant test statisticThis may be statisticallyinferred as a variable derived out of two variables whichfavours strong and significant test statistic separately need notshow the same test static of strong and significant

341 Interannual Variability in Temperature To assess theinterannual variability with temperature annual mean min-imum mean maximum and mean of mean temperaturesare found out for each year from 1964 to 2008 Also to

ascertain deviation from the normal each yearly mean valueis deducted from the mean of the entire values available forpresent data and thereby extracted the anomaly in tempera-ture Mean and standard deviation of daily mean maximumminimum and daily temperature range are computed for ayear and depicted in Figures 7 8 9 and 10 The fitted lineartrend line slope (dydx) as well as correlation coefficient (119903)values are annotated in graphs It is seen that from bothmeandaily temperature as well as from the maximum temperaturean abrupt prominent shift or a discernible upward trendis occurred after 1976 may be like the ldquoclimate shiftrdquo asstated by Trenberth [24] The 45 year rate in mean dailymaximum andminimum are obtained as +0585∘C +0540∘Cand +0630∘C respectively or with decadal rates of (+013 plusmn001)∘C (+012 plusmn 002)∘C and (+014 plusmn 00)∘C accordingly Inthe obtained value for the global mean surface temperatureas a whole (+007 plusmn 002)∘C surface temperatures over landhave risen at about double the ocean rate after 1979 (morethan (+027 plusmn 006)∘C per decade versus (+013 plusmn 004)∘Cper decade) as per the Trenberth et al [31] From 1950 to2004 the global land trend in diurnal temperature range wasextracted as negative (minus007∘C per decade) although tropicalareas are still underrepresented [31] Kumar et al [32] showedtrends of increase in diurnal temperature range significantincrease in annual maximum temperature and practicallytrendless annual minimum temperature over India in thelast century Our inter annual variability results coincidemostly with former studied data period which supports thedecrease of diurnal temperature range and the same is veryvivid from Figure 6 discussed earlier It infers that for thistropical coastal station the obtained decadal rate of (+0130plusmn001)∘C which is in agreement with global ocean rate maybe due to the station being coastal in origin The errorvalue reduction by plusmn003∘C for TERLS can be due to morestabilized single station data Also rate of increase in trend forminimum temperature is high in comparison to maximumtemperature A decreasing trend in maximum temperature isnoticed after 2005 with decreasing standard deviation valuesThis observation might be correct as a result of shifting theobservatory since 1964 to hardly 30m towards north in 2005were smooth and free sea-breeze flow which enables abruptreach of maximum temperature in the diurnal course aroundthe time of sea breeze onset The feature of attaining themaximum temperature of the day around the time of onset of

12 Journal of Climatology

Table 6 Linear trends of 11 year moving averaged data on various inter-annual variability Level of significance was choosen at 005 toread out critical 119905 values (119905

119888

) corresponding to the degree of freedom (df ) If 119903 gt 05 strong 119903 lt 05 weak 119905 gt 119905119888

significant and 119905 lt 119905119888

notsignificant

No Interannualvariability in 119903

Slope (119889119910119889119909) plusmnerror Calculated 119905 df Comments Data missing

1 Mean temperature 0891 0013 plusmn 0001 1208154 38Strong and

significant (Figures7(a) and 7(b))

1974 1975 19761982 and 1992

2 Mean maximumtemperature 0725 00121 plusmn 0002 650392 38

Strong andsignificant

(Figures 8(a) and 8(b)

1974 1975 19761982 and 1992

3 Mean minimumtemperature 0952 0014 plusmn 0000 1929677 38

Strong andsignificant

(Figures 9(a) and9(b))

1974 1975 19761982 and 1992

4 Mean temperaturerange minus0190 minus0002 plusmn 0002 minus119078 38

Weak and notsignificant

(Figure 10(a))

1974 1975 19761982 and 1992

5South West

monsoon rainfall(Thumba)

minus0477 minus2145 plusmn 0616 minus3483 41 Weak and significant(Figure 14) 1964 1998

6North East

monsoon rainfall(Thumba)

0848 3928 plusmn 0393 10000 39 Strong and significant(Figure 15)

1964 1977 1992and 1998

7South West

monsoon rainfall(Kerala)

minus0721 minus6149 plusmn 0934 minus6587 40 Strong and significant(Figure 16)

1964 2007 and2008

8North East

monsoon rainfall(Kerala)

0737 3430 plusmn 0491 6986 41 Strong and significant(Figure 17) 1964 2008

9South West

monsoon surfacepressure

0445 0006 plusmn 0002 2899 34 Weak and significant(Figure 18) 1964 to 1972

10North East

monsoon surfacepressure

minus0616 0010 plusmn 0002 minus4555 34 Strong and significant(Figure 19) 1964 to 1972

123456789

101112

(mon

th)

1964 1966 1968 1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008

No data

20181614121008060402minus00minus02minus04minus06minus08minus10minus12minus14minus16minus18minus20

(∘C)

Figure 12 Minimum temperature anomaly

sea breeze is known [33] As the station is of coastal in originthe occurrence of daily maximum temperature is very muchlinked to the setting and strong establishment of sea breezefront towards the land areas

Mean monthly anomaly structures in minimum max-imum and mean temperatures are presented in time sec-tion contour diagrams (Figures 11 12 and 13) All contour

depictions show well-marked temperature increase duringthe course of years and are so pronounced after 1976

342 Interannual Variability in SW and NE Monsoon Rain-fall and Surface Pressure Interannual variability in rainfalland surface pressure particularly for SW monsoon and NEmonsoon are studied A decrease in trend in SW monsoon

Journal of Climatology 13

123456789

101112

(mon

th)

(year)1964 1966 1968 1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008

No data

14121008060402

(∘C)

minus00minus02minus04minus06minus08minus10minus12minus14minus16minus18minus20minus22

Figure 13 Mean temperature anomaly

300400500600700800900

100011001200130014001500

1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010(year)

Rain

fall

(mm

)

dydx = minus2145

r = minus0477

Figure 14 South West monsoon rainfall over Thumba

(year)

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1000

1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

Rain

fall

(mm

)

dydx = 3928

r = 0848

Figure 15 North East monsoon rainfall over Thumba

and an increase in trend in NE monsoons are the observedfeatures over the station with decadal variability of (minus215 plusmn62)mm and (+393 plusmn 39)mm respectively (Figures 14and 15) Analysis by considering initial rainfall values (atthe beginning year on the fitted straight line) of SouthWest monsoon North East monsoon corresponding slopeof them as 817822mm 296535mm minus215mmdecade and

(year)

1000

1250

1500

1750

2000

2250

2500

2750

3000

3250

1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

Rain

fall

(mm

)

dydx = minus6149r = minus0721

Figure 16 South West monsoon rainfall over Kerala

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1000

1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010(year)

Rain

fall

(mm

)

r = 0737

dydx = 3430

Figure 17 North East monsoon rainfall over Kerala

393mmdecade respectively shows the likelihood exceedof North East monsoon rainfall over South West monsoonover this region after the year 2050 if the current trendcontinues Similar analyses are carried out on the slot 1965to 2007 for the Kerala meteorological subdivision from thelongest instrumental rainfall series of the Indian regions(1813ndash2006) ([34] httpwwwtropmetresin) The actualrainfall amount over Kerala during 2007 is obtained from the

14 Journal of Climatology

10070100751008010085100901009510100

Pres

sure

(mb)

dydx = 00061r = 04452

(a)

101214161820

1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008100012501500175020002250

Standard deviationNumber of observations

(year)

Stan

dard

de

viat

ion

(mb)

No

of o

bser

vatio

ns

(b)

Figure 18 (a) Interannual variability in surface pressure for SouthWest monsoon season along with (b) standard deviation andnumber of observations

100801008510090100951010010105101101011510120

Pres

sure

(mb)

dydx = minus0010r = minus0616

(a)

10

15

20

25

1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008500700900110013001500

Standard deviationNo of observations

(year)

Stan

dard

de

viat

ion

(mb)

No

of o

bser

vatio

ns

(b)

Figure 19 (a) Interannual variability in surface pressure for NorthEastmonsoon season alongwith (b) standard deviation and numberof observations

quarterly journal theMAUSAM (July 2008 andOctober 2008issues) Decadal variations show a decreasing trend in SWmonsoon by (minus615 plusmn 93)mm and increasing trend in NEmonsoon by (+340 plusmn 49)mm (Figures 16 and 17)

Interannual variability in surface pressure was derivedand depicted for SW monsoon (Figure 18) and NE monsoon(Figure 19) For this every hourly data available since 1973

was subjected to mean monthly value computation Numberof observations available ranges from 1100 to 2245 in SWmonsoon and 500 to 1495 in NE monsoon respectivelyand provided along with the standard deviation values inthe above figures Since atmospheric pressure is a highlystabilized property over a region for a particular season thedecadal trend variability observed is (+006 plusmn 002)mb and(ndash010plusmn002)mb for SWmonsoon andNEmonsoon respec-tively The positive (increase) and negative (decrease) inter-annual trends observed in SW monsoon and NE monsoonrespectively might have contributed possible implications inthe development of associated synoptic scale meteorologicalsystems (position and orientation of troughsridges and lowpressures) and thereby corresponding decrease and increasein SWmonsoon and NE monsoon rainfall trends

4 Conclusion

Long-term surface meteorological records from TERLS werecollected and analysed to study the long-term changes inoverall climatology climatology pertained to a particulartime of observation mean daily climatology in temperatureinterannual variability in temperature interannual variabilityin SW andNEmonsoon rainfall andmeanmonthly anomalystructure in temperature Results on various analyses showstrong and vivid features contributed by climate change Thesalient features observed contributed by climate change are asfollows

(1) All the temperatures show increase in their behaviourwith slight decrease in RH between the presentclimatology and past climatology

(2) Steadiness of wind decreases especially in non-SWmonsoon months which gives an indirect signatureof possible modifications in meso-scale systems

(3) High cloud climatology increases and thereby proba-ble modifications in radiation budget time of occur-rence of maximum and minimum temperatures

(4) Daily statistics for 365 days show more than 80exceedance in present climatology in comparison topast in minimum maximum andmean temperature

(5) Interannual variability analysis in mean temperaturefor this tropical coastal station shows +13∘C100 yearswhich is same as that of global ocean rate

(6) Observed interannual rainfall variability in SWmon-soon and North East monsoon shows decrease intrend by ndash2145mmdecade and increase in trendby +393mmdecade respectively Prognosis on thisobservation points out the likelihood exceedance ofNE monsoon rainfall over the South West monsoonafter the year 2050 for the station But it is prejudicialto infer that the rainfall increase in NE monsoon cancompensate the forecasted decrease in SWmonsoonsince NE monsoon is mostly of heavy rainfall innature as a result of meso-scale convective systemsSuch rainfall runoff is very fast than the slow waterinfiltration feature in association with SW monsoon

Journal of Climatology 15

rainfall which is essential for irrigation and agricul-tural needs

(7) Decadal variability in surface pressure has shown+006mb and minus010mb for SW monsoon and NEmonsoon respectively

The imprints due to climate change on various meteoro-logical parameters over this coastal station proved that theregion also faces vulnerable situation due to the phenom-ena and therefore necessary engineeringmethodssocioeco-nomic steps are to be undertaken

Acknowledgments

The availability of this unique data for a continuous periodof 45 years is the outcome of concerted and whole heartedefforts put in by the staffs of TERLSIndia MeteorologicalDepartment It is a pleasure to acknowledge with esteemedgratitude the team that worked since 1963 at the TERLSThumba whose efforts have yielded the voluminous uniquedata bank which is available for investigations The authorsare extremely grateful to Dr K Krishnamoorthy DirectorSpace Physics Laboratory VSSC and the reviewers for theirvaluable comments that helped to improve the paper to thefinal form

References

[1] N Oreskes ldquoThe scientific consensus on climatic changerdquoScience vol 306 p 1686 2004

[2] H Ayyar Effect of Pollution on Weather Science ReporterCouncil of Scientific and Industrial Research (CSIR) 1973

[3] K Rupa Kumar A K Sahai K Krishna Kumar et al ldquoHigh-resolution climate change scenarios for India for the 21stcenturyrdquo Current Science vol 90 no 3 pp 334ndash345 2006

[4] P Brohan J J Kennedy I Harris S F B Tett and P DJones ldquoUncertainty estimates in regional and global observedtemperature changes a new data set from 1850rdquo Journal ofGeophysical Research D vol 111 no 12 Article IDD12106 2006

[5] T M Smith and R W Reynolds ldquoA global merged land-air-sea surface temperature reconstruction based on historicalobservations (1880ndash1997)rdquo Journal of Climate vol 18 no 12 pp2021ndash2036 2005

[6] K M Lugina P Y Groisman K Y Vinnikov V V Koknaevaand N A Speranskaya ldquoMonthly surface air temperature timeseries area-averaged over the 30-degree latitudinal belts of theglobe 1881-2004 In Trends a compendium of data on globalchangerdquo Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Centre OakRidge National Laboratory US Department of Energy OakRidge TennUSA 2005 httpcdiacesdornlgovtrendstempluginaluginahtml

[7] J Hansen R RuedyM Sato et al ldquoA closer look atUnited Statesand global surface temperature changerdquo Journal of GeophysicalResearch D vol 106 no 20 pp 23947ndash23963 2001

[8] S Solomon D Quin M Manning et al ldquoContribution ofworking group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the IPCCrdquoTech Rep IPCC-AR4 2007

[9] R C Balling Jr and S W Brazel ldquoRecent changes in PhoenixArizona summertime diurnal precipitation patternsrdquo Theoreti-cal and Applied Climatology vol 38 no 1 pp 50ndash54 1987

[10] R Bornstein and Q Lin ldquoUrban heat islands and summertimeconvective thunderstorms in Atlanta three case studiesrdquoAtmo-spheric Environment vol 34 no 3 pp 507ndash516 2000

[11] P G Dixon and T L Mote ldquoPatterns and cause of Atlandarsquosurban heat island-initiated precipitationrdquo Journal of AppliedMeteorology vol 42 pp 1273ndash1284 2003

[12] F Fujibe ldquoLong-term surface wind changes in the Tokyometropolitan area in the afternoon of sunny days in the warmseasonrdquo Journal of the Meteorological Society of Japan vol 81no 1 pp 141ndash149 2003

[13] T Inoue and F Kimura ldquoUrban effects on low-level cloudsaround the Tokyo metropolitan area on clear summer daysrdquoGeophysical Research Letters vol 31 no 5 Article ID L051032004

[14] JM ShepherdH Pierce andA J Negri ldquoRainfallmodificationby major urban areas observations from spaceborne rain radaron the TRMM satelliterdquo Journal of Applied Meteorology vol 41no 7 pp 689ndash701 2002

[15] C Price SMichaelides S Pashiardis and P Alpert ldquoLong termchanges in diurnal temperature range in Cyprusrdquo AtmosphericResearch vol 51 no 2 pp 85ndash98 1999

[16] H N Singh S D Patil S D Bansod and N Singh ldquoSeasonalvariability in mean sea level pressure extremes over the Indianregionrdquo Atmospheric Research vol 101 no 1-2 pp 102ndash111 2011

[17] J Kingwell J Shimizu K Narita H Kawabata and I ShimizuldquoWeather factors affecting rocket operations a review and casehistoryrdquo American Meteorological Society vol 72 pp 778ndash7931991

[18] R E Turner and C K Hill Terrestrial Environment (Climatic)Guidlines for Use in Aerospace Vehicle Development 1982 Revi-sion Technical Memor 82473 National Aeronautics and SpaceAdministration 1982

[19] ldquoSpace Research in Indiardquo in Proceedings of the 38th COSPARMeeting pp 199ndash204 Bremen Germeny 2010

[20] P V Joseph and A Simon ldquoWeakening trend of the southwestmonsoon current through peninsular India from 1950 to thepresentrdquo Current Science vol 89 no 4 pp 687ndash694 2005

[21] S K Dash J R Kumar and M S Shekhar ldquoOn the decreasingfrequency of monsoon depressions over the Indian regionrdquoCurrent Science vol 86 no 10 pp 1404ndash1411 2004

[22] K N Krishnakumar G S L H V Prasada Rao and C SGopakumar ldquoRainfall trends in twentieth century over KeralaIndiardquo Atmospheric Environment vol 43 no 11 pp 1940ndash19442009

[23] National Council of Educational Research and Training(NCERT) India Text book of physicsmdashpart I for class 11 2006

[24] K E Trenberth ldquoRecent observed interdecadal climate changesin the Northern Hemisphererdquo Bulletin of the American Meteo-rological Society vol 71 no 7 pp 988ndash993 1990

[25] T K Karl H F Diaz and G Kukla ldquoUrbanization its detectionand effect in the United States climate recordrdquo Journal ofClimate vol 1 pp 1099ndash1123 1988

[26] M Rebetez andM Beniston ldquoChanges in sunshine duration arecorrelated with changes in daily temperature range this centuryan analysis of Swiss climatological datardquo Geophysical ResearchLetters vol 25 no 19 pp 3611ndash3613 1998

[27] K V S Namboodiri P K Dileep and K Mammen ldquoWindsteadiness up to 35 km and its variability before the SouthWestMonsoon onset and the withdrawalrdquoMausam vol 63 pp 275ndash282 2012

16 Journal of Climatology

[28] PMinnis A J Kirk P Rabindra and P Dung ldquoContrails cirrustrends and climaterdquo Journal of Climate vol 17 pp 1671ndash16852004

[29] C S Zerefos K Eleftheratos D S Balis P Zanis G Tselioudisand C Meleti ldquoEvidence of impact of aviation on cirrus cloudformationrdquoAtmospheric Chemistry and Physics vol 3 no 5 pp1633ndash1644 2003

[30] K Eleftheratos C S Zerefos C Varotsos and I KapsomenakisldquoInterannual variability of cirrus clouds in the tropics in elnino southern oscillation (ENSO) regions based on interna-tional satellite cloud climatology project (ISCCP) satellite datardquoInternational Journal of Remote Sensing vol 32 no 21 pp 6395ndash6405 2011

[31] K E Trenberth P D Jones and P Ambenje ldquoObservationssurface and climate changerdquo in Climate Change 2007 ThePhysical Science Basis Contribution of working group I to theFourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel onClimate Change S Solomon D Qin and M Manning EdsCambridge University Press Cambridge UK 2007

[32] K R Kumar K K Kumar and G B Pant ldquoDiurnal asymmetryof surface temperature trends over Indiardquo Geophysical ResearchLetters vol 21 no 8 pp 677ndash680 1994

[33] T R Sivaramakrishnan and P S Prakash Rao ldquoSea-breezefeatures over Sriharikota Indiardquo Meteorological Magazine vol118 no 1400 pp 64ndash67 1989

[34] NA SontakkeN Singh andHN Singh ldquoInstrumental periodrainfall series of the Indian region (AD 1813ndash2005) revisedreconstruction update and analysisrdquoHolocene vol 18 no 7 pp1055ndash1066 2008

Submit your manuscripts athttpwwwhindawicom

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Volume 2014

Advances in

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Environmental Chemistry

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ClimatologyJournal of

Page 2: Research Article Climatic Variation at Thumba Equatorial Rocket Launching Station, India · 2016. 8. 22. · Research Article Climatic Variation at Thumba Equatorial Rocket Launching

2 Journal of Climatology

materials [9ndash14] Long-term changes in maximum temper-ature minimum temperature and their range have beenanalyzed over two stations in Cyprus by Price et al [15] whoestablished a reduction in range and thereby a possibility inincreased cloud cover and tropospheric aerosols Recentlyseasonal variability in mean sea level pressure extremes overthe 11 zones of India and adjoining sea area has been studiedby Singh et al [16]

In the present paper features on surface climate changeoverThumba Equatorial Rocket Launching Station (TERLS)a coastal station near the South tip of Peninsular Indiaare critically examined TERLS was established as an inter-national rocket launching station dedicated to the UnitedNations for conducting meteorological and sounding rocketexperiments on the geomagnetic equator Meteorologygroup TERLS has one of the heaviest responsibilities inthe range to cater (i) weather forecasting and data needs ofsounding rocket launch operations (in planning pad opera-tions and launching) (ii) climatological briefing to workingcrews including scientists to plan experiments (iii) Organisevarious met Observations (iv) processing analyses storageand retrieval of various met data (Class I surface observa-tory autoweather stations sonic anemometers 50m micrometeorological flux tower facility meteorological balloonlaunches rocket chaff derived wind data) and provide thedata for users demand For the planning of a scientificmission the variability of climate is very crucial and therebythe importance of the present study on the climate changeperspective Importance of weather factors affecting rocketoperations can be found elsewhere in detail [17 18] Steadyincrease in temperature anomaly at different levels in thetroposphere over TERLSwas investigated and documented inthe Space research in India [19] Joseph and Simon [20] haveinvestigated weakening trend of the South West monsooncurrent through Peninsular India Dash et al [21] reportedthe decreasing frequency of monsoon depressions over theIndian region and Krishnakumar et al [22] have analysedsignificant decrease in South West monsoon rainfall whileincrease in post monsoon season over the whole KeralaState (also a meteorological subdivision) India From thevoluminous data bank the present study analyses dailymonthly seasonal and interannual variability on differentmeteorological parameters based on both eye reading instru-ments and non-instrumental practices in cloud and visibil-ity observations as per World Meteorological Organization(WMO) practices Till the inception of long-term unin-terrupted data collection through instrument-based cloudand visibility measurements data collection from such non-instrumental means solely vested on conventional methodsin surface meteorological observations adopted worldwide isto be accepted for a reasonable climatology extraction Thepresent work examines the imprints made by the climaticchange on severalmeteorological parameters in different timedomains like a specific time daily monthly and interannu-ally unlike the climate change associated variations on a singlemeteorological parameter like temperature or rainfall alonehave dealt in most of the climatic change studies

N Indiaoutline map

China(Tibet)Nepal

Pakistan

Bhutan

Arabian SeaBay of Bengal

BangladeshMyanmar

Thumba (8∘32998400998400N76∘52998400998400 67 amsl)E

Figure 1 Location shows the class-I surface meteorological obser-vatory at Thumba

2 Data and Methodology

A class I surface meteorological observatory was establishedat TERLS (8∘3210158401015840N76∘ 5210158401015840E 67 amsl) by India Meteorolog-ical Department (IMD) approximately 70m away from thecoastline of the Arabian Sea coast (Figure 1) TERLS is situ-ated hardly 8 km West North West of Thiruvananthapuramthe capital city of the Kerala state of India Various meteo-rological data from 0830 IST (Indian Standard Time IST =GMT + 0530 hr) observations for a period of 45 years (1964ndash2008) except for pressure where it is hourly data (1973ndash2008) are used in order to investigate changes encounteredinmeteorological parameters due to climate changeThe dataused are obtained from the following measurements at 0830IST (1964ndash2008) namely (i) maximum temperature (past24 hr reported at 0830 IST) (ii) minimum temperature (past24 hr reported at 0830 IST) (iii) past 24 hr rainfall (reportedat 0830 IST) (iv) dry-bulb temperature at 0830 IST (v) wet-bulb temperature at 0830 IST (vi) relative humidity at 0830IST (vii) soil temperature at 0830 IST (viii) non-instrumentaleye observations on clouds and visibility at 0830 IST (ix)wind speed and direction at 0830 IST and (x) hourly surfacepressure (1973ndash2008) Table 1 provides details on variousinstrumentation exposure maintenance data span and thelowest and the highest in maximum absolute error valuesamong various monthly statistics from 1964 to 2008

The above mentioned 45 years of data have partitionedinto two climatological slots of 30 years each namely 1964to 1993 and from 1979 to 2008 respectively called as pastdata for the former and present data for the later Maximumabsolute error values in the total data set (1962ndash2008) are the

Journal of Climatology 3

Table1Detailson

instrumentatio

ndatausedand

theo

bservedvaria

tionin

maxim

umabsoluteerrorinmon

thlymeanused

inthed

iscussio

nof

climatolog

yat0830

IST

Sno

Parameter

Datau

sed

Instrument

Height(agl)

(cm)

Expo

sure

Lowestand

high

est

maxim

umabsolute

error

Make

Maintenance

and

calib

ratio

nprotocol

1Maxim

umtemperature

(∘ C)

1964

ndash2008

Maxim

umthermom

eter

(Mercury-in

-glassthermom

eter)

122

Stevensonscreen

0087to

0132(∘ C

)IM

D

Daily

weeklymon

thly

halfyearly

annu

aland

perio

dic

2Minim

umtemperature

(∘ C)

1964

ndash2008

Minim

umthermom

eter

(spirit-in

-glass)

122

Stevensonscreen

0061to0145(∘ C

)IM

D

3Dry-bulbtemperature

(∘ C)

1964

ndash2008

Drybu

lbthermom

eter

(mercury-in

-glassthermom

eter)

122

Stevensonscreen

0088to

0125(∘ C

)IM

D

4Ra

infall(m

m)

Non

recordingrain

gaugeo

fcollector

area

20square

cm0

Groun

d

4Wet-bulbtemperature

(∘ C)

1964

ndash2008

Wet-bulbthermom

eter

122

Stevensonscreen

006

to0146(∘ C

)IM

D

5Re

lativeh

umidity

()

1964

ndash2008

Drybu

lbthermom

eterw

etbu

lbthermom

eterand

psychrom

eter

table

122

Stevensonscreen

0512to

0916(

)IM

D

6Soiltemperature

(∘ C)

1964

ndash2008

Soilthermom

eter

inmetallic

tube

minus5

0201to0261(∘

C)IM

D

7Pressure

(mb)

1974ndash2008

Aneroid

barograph(diaph

ragm

type)

670

mam

slIM

D

8Windspeed

1964

ndash2008

Anemom

eter

300

0043to

024

(ms)

IMDD

ynalab

9Winddirection

1964

ndash2008

Windvane

300

With

in1d

egree

IMDD

ynalab

4 Journal of Climatology

summation of errors [23] of past and present data sets Indi-vidual error is computed as the ratio of standard deviation tothe number of observations of a particular data set Trenberth[24] has established the climate shift as a prominent upwardtrend in temperature after 1976 In order to include thisobservation influence half portion (15 years) period from1979 to 1993 ismade common in the latter half of past data andin the former part of present data The difference obtainedamong present data and past data has been represented as Δin the discussions throughout To see genuineness in findingsattributed to climate change Δ values are compared withabsolute errors so as to see that Δ do not fall within absoluteerrors of corresponding meteorological parameters

3 Results and Discussion

31 Δ Climatology of the Past 24 hr Observations Maximumtemperature minimum temperature and 24 hr accumulatedrainfall are the only 3meteorological parameters registered at0830 IST having effect of the past 24 hr variability behaviourClimatology for various parameters has been derived for pastdata and present data and presented in Tables 2 3 4 and5 in which months that constitute the different seasons arementioned Derived Δ values are also incorporated in theabove tables Comparison between past data and present datamaximum temperature climatology shows marked increasein present data climatology in relation to the past datacounterpart and thereby positive values alone are observedin Δ Δ values vary from +001∘C in the North East monsoon(NE monsoon) month November to +043∘C in the pre-South West monsoon (SW monsoon) month May The NEmonsoon season comprises October and November whereasthe four months from June to September designate SWmonsoon season which are the main two Indian seasonsIn minimum temperature all Δ values are positive withmaximum value in the winter month February with a value+053∘C The observations among maximum and minimumtemperature climatology derived in past data and presentdata along with Δ values can infer that the minimum dailytemperatures have generally increased at a larger rate thanthe maximum daily temperatures Karl et al [25] studied thepossible cause of increased urbanisation effects and Rebetezand Beniston [26] justified the result of increased cloud coverin the large increase in minimum temperature and smallincrease in maximum temperatures

From each individual daily maximum and minimumtemperature mean daily temperatures ((maximum temper-ature + minimum temperature)2) are computed and furtherderive the past data and present data climatologies of meantemperatures Only positive Δ values are observed through-out the year which clearly indicate that the temperature overthis tropical coastal station is increasing Temperature clima-tologies have shown the tropical monsoonal characteristic oftwo maxima and two minima in monthly variation

The diurnal temperature range is calculated from indi-vidual maximum and minimum temperature value andcalculated past data and present data temperature rangeclimatologies Range climatologies are featured by annualvariation The prominent feature of negative Δ values in

range is seen which shows that the difference betweenmaximum temperature and minimum temperature in a dayis decreasing Also the larger rate of increase in minimumtemperatures than maximum temperatures results in thesenegative Δ values in the diurnal temperature range

The rainfall Δ shows decrease in rainfall in present datafor the summermonthsApril andMayWell-marked negativeΔ values of about 21mm are observed in the SW monsoonmonths (JunendashAugust) An increase in rainfall activity isdetected in the SW monsoon month September and in theNE monsoon months October and November (debted tomonsoonal climate) with maximum value of +3650mm inOctober The station weather is dominated by convectivemesoscale systems during the NE monsoon Probably thisinvestigation poses the doubt about whether suchmeso-scaleweather phenomena like thunderstorm formations are onincreasing trend duringNEMonsoon and thereby an increasein Δ

32 Climatology of a Particular Observation at 0830 ISTAnalyses are carried out on different parameters collected at0830 IST Δ in dry bulb temperature wet bulb temperatureand dew point temperature obtained from the two climatolo-gies show only positive values It ranges from +060∘C in Julyto +101∘C in January for dry bulb temperature Variations inΔ among the SW monsoon months are less in general for allthe above three variables even though a maximum value inΔ is observed in dry bulb temperature The less variation ofwet bulb and dew point temperatures may be as a result ofmoisture laden atmosphere during the period which impartscorresponding variations in the moisture parameters like wetbulb temperature and dew point temperature

Station relative humidity values at 0830 IST show morethan 70 throughout the year with maximum in SW mon-soon of the order 89 Low negative values in Δ relativehumidity are detected as the air becomes drier in present datacompared to past As the air is getting dried both dew pointand the wet bulb temperatures are supposed to show negativeΔ values but the feature is not detectedThis may be inferredas the dry bulb temperature is the key parameter in elevatingΔ values of both dew point and wet bulb temperatures andthe meagre relative humidity decrease in present data thanpast data is insignificant to impartΔ changes in dewpoint andwet bulb temperatures Climatologies of RH also have showntwomaxima and twominimawhereas the secondaryminimaaround the NE monsoon is shallow in character

Significant positive Δ values are observed among the twoclimatologies in soil temperature with a low value of +099∘Cto a high of +235∘C in July and January respectively Perhapsthe Δ increase observed in the winter months January andFebruary may contribute reduction in radiational coolingwhich leads to a reduction in fog formation probability overthe station Soil temperature climatologies also have showntropical monsoonal type with two maxima and minima

Wind speed (both scalar and resultant) is decreased inpresent climatologies Mathematically resultant wind speedshall be determined as the square root of the sum of thesquares of zonal and meridional wind components Theencountered Δ values that rise to a maximum value of

Journal of Climatology 5

Table2Clim

atolog

yandΔof

maxim

umtemperaturem

inim

umtemperaturem

eandaily

temperaturem

eanrangeintemperatureand

mon

thlyrainfall

Mon

thMaxim

umtemperature∘

CMinim

umtemperature∘

CMeandaily

temperature∘

CMeanrangeintemperature∘

CMon

thlyrainfallmm

1964

ndash1993

1979ndash2008Δ

1964

ndash1993

1979ndash2008Δ

1964

ndash1993

1979ndash2008Δ

1964

ndash1993

1979ndash2008Δ

1964

ndash1993

1979ndash2008Δ

JAN

3259

3276

+017

2130

2158

+028

2694

2716

+022

1129

1117

minus012

1180

1110

minus070

FEB

3312

3332

+020

2189

2242

+053

2751

2787

+036

1124

1091minus033

1620

1640

+020

MAR

3384

3407

+023

2375

2413

+038

2878

2909

+031

1006

992

minus014

3320

3480

+160

APR

3425

3441

+016

2524

2551

+027

2976

2995

+019

905

888

minus017

10410

9940minus470

MAY

3303

3346

+043

2514

2550

+036

2912

2948

+036

797

796

minus001

1792

016580minus1340

JUN

3036

3071

+035

2399

2436

+037

2720

2753

+033

643

635

minus008

29270

27220minus2050

JUL

2938

2948

+010

2336

2379

+043

2638

2663

+025

603

568

minus035

20300

1813

0minus2170

AUG

2927

2960

+033

2339

2380

+041

2635

2670

+035

592

579

minus013

1415

012090minus2060

SEP

3034

3070

+036

2368

2400

+032

2704

2734

+030

671

667

minus004

15820

1710

0+1280

OCT

3119

3153

+034

2374

2404

+030

2750

2776

+026

753

744

minus009

20490

2414

0+3

650

NOV

3176

3177

+001

2321

2357

+036

2748

2767

+019

853

820

minus033

16680

17070

+390

DEC

3230

3256

+026

2244

2244

+000

2735

2750

+015

983

1011

+028

6660

5370minus1290

DEC

JANand

FEB

winterMAR

APR

and

MAY

sum

merJUNJULAU

Gand

SEP

SWmon

soon

OCT

NOV

NEmon

soon

6 Journal of Climatology

Table3Clim

atolog

yandΔof

dry-bu

lbtemperaturew

etbu

lbtemperaturedew

pointtem

peraturerelativeh

umidityand

soiltemperature

Mon

thDry-bulbtemperature

(0830IST)∘

CWet-bulbtemperature

(0830IST)∘

CDew

pointtem

perature

(0830IST)∘

CRe

lativeh

umidity

()

(0830IST)

Soiltemperature

(0830IST)∘

C1964

ndash1993

1979ndash2008Δ

1964

ndash1993

1979ndash2008Δ

1964

ndash1993

1979ndash2008Δ

1964

ndash1993

1979ndash2008Δ

1964

ndash1993

1979ndash2008Δ

JAN

2606

2707

+101

2233

2290

+057

2035

2069

+034

7136

6885minus251

2903

3138

+235

FEB

2677

2771

+094

2304

2355

+051

2112

2143

+031

7176

6941minus235

3041

3254

+213

MAR

2831

2920

+089

2458

2494

+036

2281

2294

+013

7255

6953

minus302

3280

3425

+145

APR

2929

3000

+071

2609

2630

+021

2471

2472

+001

7656

7361minus295

3373

3511

+138

MAY

2870

2943

+073

2612

2643

+031

2502

2517

+015

8094

7833

minus261

3246

3416

+170

JUN

2661

2733

+072

2520

2557

+037

2455

2481

+026

8851

8643minus208

2955

3099

+144

JUL

2576

2636

+060

2455

2488

+033

2395

2421

+026

8980

8803minus17

72901

3000

+099

AUG

2590

2660

+070

2460

2496

+036

2397

2422

+025

8940

8698minus242

2960

3096

+136

SEP

2662

2737

+075

2484

2521

+037

2402

2425

+023

8577

8345minus232

3110

3223

+113

OCT

2681

2759

+078

2490

2533

+043

2402

2432

+030

8501

8261minus240

3140

3245

+105

NOV

2690

2763

+073

2440

2486

+046

2327

2358

+031

8084

7935minus14

93099

3202

+103

DEC

2670

2759

+089

2335

2372

+037

2161

2174

+013

7448

7139

minus309

3052

3209

+157

DEC

JANand

FEB

winterMAR

APR

and

MAY

sum

merJUNJULAU

Gand

SEP

SWmon

soon

OCT

NOV

NEmon

soon

Journal of Climatology 7

Table4Clim

atolog

yandΔof

visib

ilitycodelow

cloud

highclo

udand

totalcloud

Mon

thVisib

ilitycode

(0830IST)

Lowclo

ud(0830IST)

Middlec

loud

(0830IST)

Highclo

ud(0830IST)

Totalcloud

(0830IST)

1964

ndash1993

1979ndash2008Δ

1964

ndash1993

1979ndash2008Δ

1964

ndash1993

1979ndash2008Δ

1964

ndash1993

1979ndash2008Δ

1964

ndash1993

1979ndash2008Δ

JAN

9679

9698

+019

055

047

minus008

081

078

minus003

118

135

+017

251

253

+002

FEB

9675

9691

+016

048

047

minus001

066

058

minus008

108

116

+008

221

217

minus004

MAR

9661

9688

+027

062

071

+009

054

037

minus017

106

121

+015

220

224

+004

APR

9677

9686

+009

125

157

+032

100

087

minus013

172

179

+007

391

394

+003

MAY

9670

9668minus002

202

208

+006

145

143minus002

156

164

+008

487

468

minus019

JUN

9626

9643

+017

286

284

minus002

231

237

+006

116

149

+033

596

590

minus006

JUL

9610

9637

+027

274

274

+000

250

282

+032

126

167

+041

596

606

+010

AUG

9641

9658

+017

227

238

+011

231

228

minus003

131

186

+055

563

568

+005

SEP

9648

9663

+015

216

215

minus001

163

162minus001

134

162

+028

493

490

minus003

OCT

9676

9670minus006

175

196

+021

207

214

+007

129

173

+044

492

506

+014

NOV

9668

9665minus003

144

155

+011

186

194

+008

126

172

+046

440

465

+025

DEC

9681

9679minus002

101

091

minus010

140

115minus025

120

140

+020

356

325

minus031

DEC

JANand

FEB

winterMAR

APR

and

MAY

sum

merJUNJULAU

Gand

SEP

SWmon

soon

OCT

NOV

NEmon

soon

8 Journal of Climatology

Table 5 Climatology and Δ of wind speed (scalar) wind speed (resultant) and wind steadiness factor

MonthWind speed (scalar)(0830 IST) msminus1

Wind speed (resultant)(0830 IST) msminus1

Wind steadiness factor(0830 IST) ()

1964ndash1993 1979ndash2008 Δ 1979ndash2008 Δ 1964ndash1993 1979ndash2008 Δ

JAN 104 075 minus029 071 033 minus038 6889 4448 minus2441FEB 107 081 minus026 073 038 minus035 6795 4736 minus2059MAR 121 100 minus021 083 056 minus027 6849 5615 minus1234APR 129 100 minus029 092 063 minus029 7146 6315 minus831MAY 145 104 minus041 114 075 minus039 7840 7244 minus596JUN 149 109 minus040 103 08 minus023 6897 7365 +468JUL 168 135 minus033 115 094 minus021 6808 6960 +152AUG 161 131 minus030 136 105 minus031 8468 7999 minus469SEP 157 110 minus047 117 081 minus036 7457 7406 minus051OCT 110 082 minus028 064 040 minus024 5869 4926 minus943NOV 097 074 minus023 049 023 minus026 5029 3117 minus1912DEC 101 075 minus026 067 037 minus030 6644 4888 minus1756DEC JAN and FEB winter MAR APR and MAY summer JUN JUL AUG and SEP SWmonsoon OCT NOV NE monsoon

the order 05ms are due to decrease in wind speeds inthe present data climatology in comparison with past dataclimatology Wind steadiness factor values at 0830 IST arecomputed as the ratio of mean resultant wind speed to meanscalar wind (average value of scalar wind speeds) expressed in and the two slot climatologies are made Wind steadinessfactor is a general meteorological technique in order to derivethe quantitative estimate of steadiness of wind direction[27] The feature of losing controllability of blowing windsfrom a specific direction (computed from wind steadiness)as the demand of a particular season might be justified asa result of heat island effect of the very fast developingurbanisation hardly 8 km East South East of the observatoryand the increasing vehicle populations and thereby drasticmodifications in at 0830 IST observations which belongto land breeze prevalence over the station in the non-SWmonsoonal months (up to a maximum of 20 decrease)Throughout the day strong seabreeze is in prevalence in theSW monsoon months Even in the SW monsoon which isdominantly associated with unidirectional wind flow slightdeteriorations in the steadiness of the wind directions haveobserved Both the above observations brought out thephenomenal changes in the steadiness of offshorewinds (landbreeze) at 0830 IST during the non-SW monsoonal monthsat greater extend and onshore wind (sea breeze) at 0830 ISTduring the SW monsoon steadiness in smaller grades Thefeature of very prominent decrease in direction steadinessin preset data to the past is clearly detected As negative Δdominance exists in the non-SW monsoon months wherechange over of land-sea breezes are so pronounced for thestation this observation may be further studied in order tocheck any possible modifications in the meso-scale meteoro-logical phenomena like sealand breeze thunderstorms dueto associated thermal and moisture environment changes

Visibility and cloud climatologies are also studied Asthese observational procedures are non-instrumental thedata is too subjective and quality observation is solely vested

260265270275280285290295300305

Tem

pera

ture

(∘C)

(a)

00040812162024

Date

Stan

dard

devi

atio

n (∘

C)

1964ndash19931979ndash2008

Jan

1 10 20 10 20M

ar 1 10 20

Apr

1 10 20M

ay 1 20

Jun

1 10 20Ju

l 1 10 20A

ug 1 10 20

Sep

1 10

Oct

1 10 20N

ov 1 10 20

Dec

1 10 20 D

ec 3

1

(b)

Figure 2 (a) Mean daily temperature climatologies in 1964ndash19931979ndash2008 and their differences along with (b) standard deviationof corresponding climatologies

on the experience of the weather observer The observationshows better visibility codes in the present data climatologyA visibility code of 96 and above signifies that a well-definedobject (like a mobile phone tower) at least 1 km far can bedistinctly differentiable Among various cloud climatologydominant positiveΔ values are existed in high clouds throughout the year whichmay be pointed out as one of the reason forsubdued albedo effect which enhances greenhouse effect and

Journal of Climatology 9

50556065707580859095

100105110115120125

Tem

pera

ture

rang

e (∘ C)

(a)

0004081216202428

Date

Stan

dard

devi

atio

n(∘

C)

1964ndash19931979ndash2008

Jan

1 10 20 10 20M

ar 1 10 20

Apr

1 10 20M

ay 1 20

Jun

1 10 20Ju

l 1 10 20A

ug 1 10 20

Sep

1 10

Oct

1 10 20N

ov 1 10 20

Dec

1 10 20 D

ec 3

1

(b)

Figure 3 (a) Mean daily temperature range climatologies in 1964ndash1993 1979ndash2008 and their differences along with (b) standarddeviation of corresponding climatologies

285290295300305310315320325330335340345350

Max

imum

tem

pera

ture

(∘C)

(a)

00040812162024

Jan

1 10 20 10 20M

ar 1 10 20

Apr 1 10 20

May

1 20Ju

n 1 10 20

Jul 1 10 20

Aug

1 10 20Se

p 1 10

Oct

1 10 20N

ov 1 10 20

Dec

1 10 20 D

ec 3

1

Date

Stan

dard

devi

atio

n(∘

C)

1964ndash19931979ndash2008

(b)

Figure 4 (a) Maximum daily temperature climatologies in 1964ndash1993 1979ndash2008 and their differences along with (b) standarddeviation of corresponding climatologies

200205210215220225230235240245250255260265

Min

imum

tem

pera

ture

(∘C)

(a)

00040812162024

Date

Stan

dard

devi

atio

n(∘

C)

1964ndash19931979ndash2008

Jan

1 10 20Fe

b 1 10 20

Mar

1 10 20A

pr 1 10 20

May

1 10 20Ju

n 1 10 20

Jul 1 10 20

Aug

1 10 20Se

p 1 10 20

Oct

1 10 20N

ov 1 10 20

Dec

1 10 20 D

ec 3

1

(b)

Figure 5 (a) Minimum daily temperature climatologies in 1964ndash1993 1979ndash2008 and their differences along with (b) standarddeviation of corresponding climatologies

0102030405060708090100

Less than zero Zero Greater than zero0

20406080

100120140160180200220240260280300320340360

Occ

urre

nces

(day

s)

Daily max tempDaily min temp

Daily mean tempRange

Occ

urre

nces

()

Figure 6 Difference statistics for 365 days between present data andpast data on daily maximum minimum mean temperatures andrange in temperature within a day

hereby surface temperature escalationThis may be the resultof number of high cloud types (Ci and Cc) are less comparedto the varieties of low and middle cloud types which enableseasy estimation for the observer while making counts onhigh clouds The increase in high cloud climatology valuesin present data may be the result of increase in air trafficresulted contrails over the region which results an increasein cirrus cloud formations due to tropical dynamics unlike

10 Journal of Climatology

271273275277279281283285

Mea

n te

mpe

ratu

re (∘

C)

101214161820

Stan

dard

devi

atio

n(∘

C)

dydx = 0013

r = 0891

(a)

minus10minus08minus06minus04minus02

00204060810

Tem

pera

ture

anom

aly

(∘C)

1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010(year)

dydx = 0013

r = 0891

Mean temperature11pt soothed line

Fitted lineStandard deviation

(b)

Figure 7 (a) Yearly mean temperature along with standard devia-tion and (b) anomaly

308312316320324328

1517192123252729dydx = 0012

r = 0725

Max

imum

tem

pera

ture

(∘C)

Stan

dard

devi

atio

n(∘

C)

(a)

minus12minus08minus04

0040812

1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010(year)

dydx = 0012

r = 0725

Tem

pera

ture

anom

aly

(∘C)

Standard deviationFitted line

11pt soothed lineMaximum temperature

(b)

Figure 8 (a) Yearly mean maximum temperature along withstandard deviation and (b) anomaly

microphysical processes in mid-latitudes as in Minnis et al[28] Zerefos et al [29] Eleftheratos et al [30] have studiedthe variability of cirrus clouds over the tropics governedby the activity of El Nino Southern Oscillation the QuasiBiennial Oscillation and solar activity Possible radiationbudget alterations modifications at the time of occurrenceof minimum and maximum temperatures are to be criticallyexamined as a part of future investigations Prominent twomaxima (secondarymaximum is very shallower compared to

dydx = 0014

r = 0952

226230234238242246

1012141618202224

Min

imum

tem

pera

ture

(∘C)

Stan

dard

dev

iatio

n(∘

C)

(a)

minus12minus08minus04

0040812

1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

dydx = 0014

r = 0952

(year)

Standard deviationFitted line11pt soothed lineMinimum temperature

Tem

pera

ture

anom

aly

(∘C)

(b)

Figure 9 (a) Yearly mean minimum temperature along withstandard deviation and (b) anomaly

dydx = 0002

r = 0190

1620242832

Stan

dard

dev

iatio

n

6670747882869094

Tem

pera

ture

rang

e(∘ C)

(a)

minus12minus08minus04

0040812

dydx = 0002

r = 0190

1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

Tem

pera

ture

rang

ean

omal

y(∘

C)

(year)

Temperature range11pt soothed line

Fitted lineStandard deviation

(b)

Figure 10 (a) Yearly mean temperature range along with standarddeviation and (b) anomaly

the primary) and two minima were seen in middle high andtotal cloud climatology

33 Mean Daily Climatology in Temperature Mean of dailymaximum minimum mean and range in temperaturebetween daily maximum and minimum temperatures arecomputed and depicted for the 365 days in a year (Figures2 3 4 and 5) along with their standard deviations Theincrease inmean daily values in present data temperatures arequite obvious and standard deviation values are fallen within

Journal of Climatology 11

(year)

123456789

101112

(mon

th)

1964 1966 1968 1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008

No data

20181614121008060402minus00minus02minus04minus06minus08minus10minus12minus14minus16minus18minus20

(∘C)

Figure 11 Maximum temperature anomaly

27∘C for all the four mean daily climatologies A differencestatistics for 365 days between present data to past data ismade and is shown in Figure 6 Out of 365 days more than80 mean daily maximum minimum and mean tempera-tures are distributed as greater than zero occurrences in thedifference statistics An elevated frequency of occurrence ofmore than 65 under less than zero class is a concrete featurewhich implies that the range amongmaximumandminimumtemperature is alarmingly diminishing

34 Interannual Variability Inter annual variability has crit-ically examined for annual mean of minimum maximumand mean temperatures annual rainfall in the SW and NEmonsoon over the station and for theKerala State and averageannual surface pressure in the SW and NE monsoons forthe station Each inter annual variability data has undergonean 11 year moving average with end point extrapolation tillthe raw data availability to bring out long term trend andthe trend line also has shown in each inter annual variabilityfigures similar to Krishnakumar et al [22] for the interannualvariability of rainfall over Kerala Interpolated values areobtained for each year from the trend and such a data setobtained has been subjected to statistical significant testinterpolated data has not taken for a particular year if theraw data point is missing for the corresponding year Thismethod has enabled no reduction in the degrees of freedom(df ) To confirm the statistical significance on various 11year moving averaged data and also to assess the strength ofsample correlation coefficient (119903) linear regression t-test werecarried out and the results are presented (Table 6) Generallystrong and significant linear trend variations are observedEven though linear trends of maximum and minimumtemperatures have shown strong and significant statisticaltrends the derived variable-temperature range has resulteda weak and insignificant test statisticThis may be statisticallyinferred as a variable derived out of two variables whichfavours strong and significant test statistic separately need notshow the same test static of strong and significant

341 Interannual Variability in Temperature To assess theinterannual variability with temperature annual mean min-imum mean maximum and mean of mean temperaturesare found out for each year from 1964 to 2008 Also to

ascertain deviation from the normal each yearly mean valueis deducted from the mean of the entire values available forpresent data and thereby extracted the anomaly in tempera-ture Mean and standard deviation of daily mean maximumminimum and daily temperature range are computed for ayear and depicted in Figures 7 8 9 and 10 The fitted lineartrend line slope (dydx) as well as correlation coefficient (119903)values are annotated in graphs It is seen that from bothmeandaily temperature as well as from the maximum temperaturean abrupt prominent shift or a discernible upward trendis occurred after 1976 may be like the ldquoclimate shiftrdquo asstated by Trenberth [24] The 45 year rate in mean dailymaximum andminimum are obtained as +0585∘C +0540∘Cand +0630∘C respectively or with decadal rates of (+013 plusmn001)∘C (+012 plusmn 002)∘C and (+014 plusmn 00)∘C accordingly Inthe obtained value for the global mean surface temperatureas a whole (+007 plusmn 002)∘C surface temperatures over landhave risen at about double the ocean rate after 1979 (morethan (+027 plusmn 006)∘C per decade versus (+013 plusmn 004)∘Cper decade) as per the Trenberth et al [31] From 1950 to2004 the global land trend in diurnal temperature range wasextracted as negative (minus007∘C per decade) although tropicalareas are still underrepresented [31] Kumar et al [32] showedtrends of increase in diurnal temperature range significantincrease in annual maximum temperature and practicallytrendless annual minimum temperature over India in thelast century Our inter annual variability results coincidemostly with former studied data period which supports thedecrease of diurnal temperature range and the same is veryvivid from Figure 6 discussed earlier It infers that for thistropical coastal station the obtained decadal rate of (+0130plusmn001)∘C which is in agreement with global ocean rate maybe due to the station being coastal in origin The errorvalue reduction by plusmn003∘C for TERLS can be due to morestabilized single station data Also rate of increase in trend forminimum temperature is high in comparison to maximumtemperature A decreasing trend in maximum temperature isnoticed after 2005 with decreasing standard deviation valuesThis observation might be correct as a result of shifting theobservatory since 1964 to hardly 30m towards north in 2005were smooth and free sea-breeze flow which enables abruptreach of maximum temperature in the diurnal course aroundthe time of sea breeze onset The feature of attaining themaximum temperature of the day around the time of onset of

12 Journal of Climatology

Table 6 Linear trends of 11 year moving averaged data on various inter-annual variability Level of significance was choosen at 005 toread out critical 119905 values (119905

119888

) corresponding to the degree of freedom (df ) If 119903 gt 05 strong 119903 lt 05 weak 119905 gt 119905119888

significant and 119905 lt 119905119888

notsignificant

No Interannualvariability in 119903

Slope (119889119910119889119909) plusmnerror Calculated 119905 df Comments Data missing

1 Mean temperature 0891 0013 plusmn 0001 1208154 38Strong and

significant (Figures7(a) and 7(b))

1974 1975 19761982 and 1992

2 Mean maximumtemperature 0725 00121 plusmn 0002 650392 38

Strong andsignificant

(Figures 8(a) and 8(b)

1974 1975 19761982 and 1992

3 Mean minimumtemperature 0952 0014 plusmn 0000 1929677 38

Strong andsignificant

(Figures 9(a) and9(b))

1974 1975 19761982 and 1992

4 Mean temperaturerange minus0190 minus0002 plusmn 0002 minus119078 38

Weak and notsignificant

(Figure 10(a))

1974 1975 19761982 and 1992

5South West

monsoon rainfall(Thumba)

minus0477 minus2145 plusmn 0616 minus3483 41 Weak and significant(Figure 14) 1964 1998

6North East

monsoon rainfall(Thumba)

0848 3928 plusmn 0393 10000 39 Strong and significant(Figure 15)

1964 1977 1992and 1998

7South West

monsoon rainfall(Kerala)

minus0721 minus6149 plusmn 0934 minus6587 40 Strong and significant(Figure 16)

1964 2007 and2008

8North East

monsoon rainfall(Kerala)

0737 3430 plusmn 0491 6986 41 Strong and significant(Figure 17) 1964 2008

9South West

monsoon surfacepressure

0445 0006 plusmn 0002 2899 34 Weak and significant(Figure 18) 1964 to 1972

10North East

monsoon surfacepressure

minus0616 0010 plusmn 0002 minus4555 34 Strong and significant(Figure 19) 1964 to 1972

123456789

101112

(mon

th)

1964 1966 1968 1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008

No data

20181614121008060402minus00minus02minus04minus06minus08minus10minus12minus14minus16minus18minus20

(∘C)

Figure 12 Minimum temperature anomaly

sea breeze is known [33] As the station is of coastal in originthe occurrence of daily maximum temperature is very muchlinked to the setting and strong establishment of sea breezefront towards the land areas

Mean monthly anomaly structures in minimum max-imum and mean temperatures are presented in time sec-tion contour diagrams (Figures 11 12 and 13) All contour

depictions show well-marked temperature increase duringthe course of years and are so pronounced after 1976

342 Interannual Variability in SW and NE Monsoon Rain-fall and Surface Pressure Interannual variability in rainfalland surface pressure particularly for SW monsoon and NEmonsoon are studied A decrease in trend in SW monsoon

Journal of Climatology 13

123456789

101112

(mon

th)

(year)1964 1966 1968 1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008

No data

14121008060402

(∘C)

minus00minus02minus04minus06minus08minus10minus12minus14minus16minus18minus20minus22

Figure 13 Mean temperature anomaly

300400500600700800900

100011001200130014001500

1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010(year)

Rain

fall

(mm

)

dydx = minus2145

r = minus0477

Figure 14 South West monsoon rainfall over Thumba

(year)

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1000

1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

Rain

fall

(mm

)

dydx = 3928

r = 0848

Figure 15 North East monsoon rainfall over Thumba

and an increase in trend in NE monsoons are the observedfeatures over the station with decadal variability of (minus215 plusmn62)mm and (+393 plusmn 39)mm respectively (Figures 14and 15) Analysis by considering initial rainfall values (atthe beginning year on the fitted straight line) of SouthWest monsoon North East monsoon corresponding slopeof them as 817822mm 296535mm minus215mmdecade and

(year)

1000

1250

1500

1750

2000

2250

2500

2750

3000

3250

1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

Rain

fall

(mm

)

dydx = minus6149r = minus0721

Figure 16 South West monsoon rainfall over Kerala

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1000

1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010(year)

Rain

fall

(mm

)

r = 0737

dydx = 3430

Figure 17 North East monsoon rainfall over Kerala

393mmdecade respectively shows the likelihood exceedof North East monsoon rainfall over South West monsoonover this region after the year 2050 if the current trendcontinues Similar analyses are carried out on the slot 1965to 2007 for the Kerala meteorological subdivision from thelongest instrumental rainfall series of the Indian regions(1813ndash2006) ([34] httpwwwtropmetresin) The actualrainfall amount over Kerala during 2007 is obtained from the

14 Journal of Climatology

10070100751008010085100901009510100

Pres

sure

(mb)

dydx = 00061r = 04452

(a)

101214161820

1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008100012501500175020002250

Standard deviationNumber of observations

(year)

Stan

dard

de

viat

ion

(mb)

No

of o

bser

vatio

ns

(b)

Figure 18 (a) Interannual variability in surface pressure for SouthWest monsoon season along with (b) standard deviation andnumber of observations

100801008510090100951010010105101101011510120

Pres

sure

(mb)

dydx = minus0010r = minus0616

(a)

10

15

20

25

1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008500700900110013001500

Standard deviationNo of observations

(year)

Stan

dard

de

viat

ion

(mb)

No

of o

bser

vatio

ns

(b)

Figure 19 (a) Interannual variability in surface pressure for NorthEastmonsoon season alongwith (b) standard deviation and numberof observations

quarterly journal theMAUSAM (July 2008 andOctober 2008issues) Decadal variations show a decreasing trend in SWmonsoon by (minus615 plusmn 93)mm and increasing trend in NEmonsoon by (+340 plusmn 49)mm (Figures 16 and 17)

Interannual variability in surface pressure was derivedand depicted for SW monsoon (Figure 18) and NE monsoon(Figure 19) For this every hourly data available since 1973

was subjected to mean monthly value computation Numberof observations available ranges from 1100 to 2245 in SWmonsoon and 500 to 1495 in NE monsoon respectivelyand provided along with the standard deviation values inthe above figures Since atmospheric pressure is a highlystabilized property over a region for a particular season thedecadal trend variability observed is (+006 plusmn 002)mb and(ndash010plusmn002)mb for SWmonsoon andNEmonsoon respec-tively The positive (increase) and negative (decrease) inter-annual trends observed in SW monsoon and NE monsoonrespectively might have contributed possible implications inthe development of associated synoptic scale meteorologicalsystems (position and orientation of troughsridges and lowpressures) and thereby corresponding decrease and increasein SWmonsoon and NE monsoon rainfall trends

4 Conclusion

Long-term surface meteorological records from TERLS werecollected and analysed to study the long-term changes inoverall climatology climatology pertained to a particulartime of observation mean daily climatology in temperatureinterannual variability in temperature interannual variabilityin SW andNEmonsoon rainfall andmeanmonthly anomalystructure in temperature Results on various analyses showstrong and vivid features contributed by climate change Thesalient features observed contributed by climate change are asfollows

(1) All the temperatures show increase in their behaviourwith slight decrease in RH between the presentclimatology and past climatology

(2) Steadiness of wind decreases especially in non-SWmonsoon months which gives an indirect signatureof possible modifications in meso-scale systems

(3) High cloud climatology increases and thereby proba-ble modifications in radiation budget time of occur-rence of maximum and minimum temperatures

(4) Daily statistics for 365 days show more than 80exceedance in present climatology in comparison topast in minimum maximum andmean temperature

(5) Interannual variability analysis in mean temperaturefor this tropical coastal station shows +13∘C100 yearswhich is same as that of global ocean rate

(6) Observed interannual rainfall variability in SWmon-soon and North East monsoon shows decrease intrend by ndash2145mmdecade and increase in trendby +393mmdecade respectively Prognosis on thisobservation points out the likelihood exceedance ofNE monsoon rainfall over the South West monsoonafter the year 2050 for the station But it is prejudicialto infer that the rainfall increase in NE monsoon cancompensate the forecasted decrease in SWmonsoonsince NE monsoon is mostly of heavy rainfall innature as a result of meso-scale convective systemsSuch rainfall runoff is very fast than the slow waterinfiltration feature in association with SW monsoon

Journal of Climatology 15

rainfall which is essential for irrigation and agricul-tural needs

(7) Decadal variability in surface pressure has shown+006mb and minus010mb for SW monsoon and NEmonsoon respectively

The imprints due to climate change on various meteoro-logical parameters over this coastal station proved that theregion also faces vulnerable situation due to the phenom-ena and therefore necessary engineeringmethodssocioeco-nomic steps are to be undertaken

Acknowledgments

The availability of this unique data for a continuous periodof 45 years is the outcome of concerted and whole heartedefforts put in by the staffs of TERLSIndia MeteorologicalDepartment It is a pleasure to acknowledge with esteemedgratitude the team that worked since 1963 at the TERLSThumba whose efforts have yielded the voluminous uniquedata bank which is available for investigations The authorsare extremely grateful to Dr K Krishnamoorthy DirectorSpace Physics Laboratory VSSC and the reviewers for theirvaluable comments that helped to improve the paper to thefinal form

References

[1] N Oreskes ldquoThe scientific consensus on climatic changerdquoScience vol 306 p 1686 2004

[2] H Ayyar Effect of Pollution on Weather Science ReporterCouncil of Scientific and Industrial Research (CSIR) 1973

[3] K Rupa Kumar A K Sahai K Krishna Kumar et al ldquoHigh-resolution climate change scenarios for India for the 21stcenturyrdquo Current Science vol 90 no 3 pp 334ndash345 2006

[4] P Brohan J J Kennedy I Harris S F B Tett and P DJones ldquoUncertainty estimates in regional and global observedtemperature changes a new data set from 1850rdquo Journal ofGeophysical Research D vol 111 no 12 Article IDD12106 2006

[5] T M Smith and R W Reynolds ldquoA global merged land-air-sea surface temperature reconstruction based on historicalobservations (1880ndash1997)rdquo Journal of Climate vol 18 no 12 pp2021ndash2036 2005

[6] K M Lugina P Y Groisman K Y Vinnikov V V Koknaevaand N A Speranskaya ldquoMonthly surface air temperature timeseries area-averaged over the 30-degree latitudinal belts of theglobe 1881-2004 In Trends a compendium of data on globalchangerdquo Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Centre OakRidge National Laboratory US Department of Energy OakRidge TennUSA 2005 httpcdiacesdornlgovtrendstempluginaluginahtml

[7] J Hansen R RuedyM Sato et al ldquoA closer look atUnited Statesand global surface temperature changerdquo Journal of GeophysicalResearch D vol 106 no 20 pp 23947ndash23963 2001

[8] S Solomon D Quin M Manning et al ldquoContribution ofworking group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the IPCCrdquoTech Rep IPCC-AR4 2007

[9] R C Balling Jr and S W Brazel ldquoRecent changes in PhoenixArizona summertime diurnal precipitation patternsrdquo Theoreti-cal and Applied Climatology vol 38 no 1 pp 50ndash54 1987

[10] R Bornstein and Q Lin ldquoUrban heat islands and summertimeconvective thunderstorms in Atlanta three case studiesrdquoAtmo-spheric Environment vol 34 no 3 pp 507ndash516 2000

[11] P G Dixon and T L Mote ldquoPatterns and cause of Atlandarsquosurban heat island-initiated precipitationrdquo Journal of AppliedMeteorology vol 42 pp 1273ndash1284 2003

[12] F Fujibe ldquoLong-term surface wind changes in the Tokyometropolitan area in the afternoon of sunny days in the warmseasonrdquo Journal of the Meteorological Society of Japan vol 81no 1 pp 141ndash149 2003

[13] T Inoue and F Kimura ldquoUrban effects on low-level cloudsaround the Tokyo metropolitan area on clear summer daysrdquoGeophysical Research Letters vol 31 no 5 Article ID L051032004

[14] JM ShepherdH Pierce andA J Negri ldquoRainfallmodificationby major urban areas observations from spaceborne rain radaron the TRMM satelliterdquo Journal of Applied Meteorology vol 41no 7 pp 689ndash701 2002

[15] C Price SMichaelides S Pashiardis and P Alpert ldquoLong termchanges in diurnal temperature range in Cyprusrdquo AtmosphericResearch vol 51 no 2 pp 85ndash98 1999

[16] H N Singh S D Patil S D Bansod and N Singh ldquoSeasonalvariability in mean sea level pressure extremes over the Indianregionrdquo Atmospheric Research vol 101 no 1-2 pp 102ndash111 2011

[17] J Kingwell J Shimizu K Narita H Kawabata and I ShimizuldquoWeather factors affecting rocket operations a review and casehistoryrdquo American Meteorological Society vol 72 pp 778ndash7931991

[18] R E Turner and C K Hill Terrestrial Environment (Climatic)Guidlines for Use in Aerospace Vehicle Development 1982 Revi-sion Technical Memor 82473 National Aeronautics and SpaceAdministration 1982

[19] ldquoSpace Research in Indiardquo in Proceedings of the 38th COSPARMeeting pp 199ndash204 Bremen Germeny 2010

[20] P V Joseph and A Simon ldquoWeakening trend of the southwestmonsoon current through peninsular India from 1950 to thepresentrdquo Current Science vol 89 no 4 pp 687ndash694 2005

[21] S K Dash J R Kumar and M S Shekhar ldquoOn the decreasingfrequency of monsoon depressions over the Indian regionrdquoCurrent Science vol 86 no 10 pp 1404ndash1411 2004

[22] K N Krishnakumar G S L H V Prasada Rao and C SGopakumar ldquoRainfall trends in twentieth century over KeralaIndiardquo Atmospheric Environment vol 43 no 11 pp 1940ndash19442009

[23] National Council of Educational Research and Training(NCERT) India Text book of physicsmdashpart I for class 11 2006

[24] K E Trenberth ldquoRecent observed interdecadal climate changesin the Northern Hemisphererdquo Bulletin of the American Meteo-rological Society vol 71 no 7 pp 988ndash993 1990

[25] T K Karl H F Diaz and G Kukla ldquoUrbanization its detectionand effect in the United States climate recordrdquo Journal ofClimate vol 1 pp 1099ndash1123 1988

[26] M Rebetez andM Beniston ldquoChanges in sunshine duration arecorrelated with changes in daily temperature range this centuryan analysis of Swiss climatological datardquo Geophysical ResearchLetters vol 25 no 19 pp 3611ndash3613 1998

[27] K V S Namboodiri P K Dileep and K Mammen ldquoWindsteadiness up to 35 km and its variability before the SouthWestMonsoon onset and the withdrawalrdquoMausam vol 63 pp 275ndash282 2012

16 Journal of Climatology

[28] PMinnis A J Kirk P Rabindra and P Dung ldquoContrails cirrustrends and climaterdquo Journal of Climate vol 17 pp 1671ndash16852004

[29] C S Zerefos K Eleftheratos D S Balis P Zanis G Tselioudisand C Meleti ldquoEvidence of impact of aviation on cirrus cloudformationrdquoAtmospheric Chemistry and Physics vol 3 no 5 pp1633ndash1644 2003

[30] K Eleftheratos C S Zerefos C Varotsos and I KapsomenakisldquoInterannual variability of cirrus clouds in the tropics in elnino southern oscillation (ENSO) regions based on interna-tional satellite cloud climatology project (ISCCP) satellite datardquoInternational Journal of Remote Sensing vol 32 no 21 pp 6395ndash6405 2011

[31] K E Trenberth P D Jones and P Ambenje ldquoObservationssurface and climate changerdquo in Climate Change 2007 ThePhysical Science Basis Contribution of working group I to theFourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel onClimate Change S Solomon D Qin and M Manning EdsCambridge University Press Cambridge UK 2007

[32] K R Kumar K K Kumar and G B Pant ldquoDiurnal asymmetryof surface temperature trends over Indiardquo Geophysical ResearchLetters vol 21 no 8 pp 677ndash680 1994

[33] T R Sivaramakrishnan and P S Prakash Rao ldquoSea-breezefeatures over Sriharikota Indiardquo Meteorological Magazine vol118 no 1400 pp 64ndash67 1989

[34] NA SontakkeN Singh andHN Singh ldquoInstrumental periodrainfall series of the Indian region (AD 1813ndash2005) revisedreconstruction update and analysisrdquoHolocene vol 18 no 7 pp1055ndash1066 2008

Submit your manuscripts athttpwwwhindawicom

Forestry ResearchInternational Journal of

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Journal of

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Hindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

EcosystemsJournal of

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MeteorologyAdvances in

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Marine BiologyJournal of

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Hindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom

Applied ampEnvironmentalSoil Science

Volume 2014

Advances in

Hindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

Environmental Chemistry

Atmospheric SciencesInternational Journal of

Hindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

Hindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

Waste ManagementJournal of

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International Journal of

Geophysics

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Hindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

ClimatologyJournal of

Page 3: Research Article Climatic Variation at Thumba Equatorial Rocket Launching Station, India · 2016. 8. 22. · Research Article Climatic Variation at Thumba Equatorial Rocket Launching

Journal of Climatology 3

Table1Detailson

instrumentatio

ndatausedand

theo

bservedvaria

tionin

maxim

umabsoluteerrorinmon

thlymeanused

inthed

iscussio

nof

climatolog

yat0830

IST

Sno

Parameter

Datau

sed

Instrument

Height(agl)

(cm)

Expo

sure

Lowestand

high

est

maxim

umabsolute

error

Make

Maintenance

and

calib

ratio

nprotocol

1Maxim

umtemperature

(∘ C)

1964

ndash2008

Maxim

umthermom

eter

(Mercury-in

-glassthermom

eter)

122

Stevensonscreen

0087to

0132(∘ C

)IM

D

Daily

weeklymon

thly

halfyearly

annu

aland

perio

dic

2Minim

umtemperature

(∘ C)

1964

ndash2008

Minim

umthermom

eter

(spirit-in

-glass)

122

Stevensonscreen

0061to0145(∘ C

)IM

D

3Dry-bulbtemperature

(∘ C)

1964

ndash2008

Drybu

lbthermom

eter

(mercury-in

-glassthermom

eter)

122

Stevensonscreen

0088to

0125(∘ C

)IM

D

4Ra

infall(m

m)

Non

recordingrain

gaugeo

fcollector

area

20square

cm0

Groun

d

4Wet-bulbtemperature

(∘ C)

1964

ndash2008

Wet-bulbthermom

eter

122

Stevensonscreen

006

to0146(∘ C

)IM

D

5Re

lativeh

umidity

()

1964

ndash2008

Drybu

lbthermom

eterw

etbu

lbthermom

eterand

psychrom

eter

table

122

Stevensonscreen

0512to

0916(

)IM

D

6Soiltemperature

(∘ C)

1964

ndash2008

Soilthermom

eter

inmetallic

tube

minus5

0201to0261(∘

C)IM

D

7Pressure

(mb)

1974ndash2008

Aneroid

barograph(diaph

ragm

type)

670

mam

slIM

D

8Windspeed

1964

ndash2008

Anemom

eter

300

0043to

024

(ms)

IMDD

ynalab

9Winddirection

1964

ndash2008

Windvane

300

With

in1d

egree

IMDD

ynalab

4 Journal of Climatology

summation of errors [23] of past and present data sets Indi-vidual error is computed as the ratio of standard deviation tothe number of observations of a particular data set Trenberth[24] has established the climate shift as a prominent upwardtrend in temperature after 1976 In order to include thisobservation influence half portion (15 years) period from1979 to 1993 ismade common in the latter half of past data andin the former part of present data The difference obtainedamong present data and past data has been represented as Δin the discussions throughout To see genuineness in findingsattributed to climate change Δ values are compared withabsolute errors so as to see that Δ do not fall within absoluteerrors of corresponding meteorological parameters

3 Results and Discussion

31 Δ Climatology of the Past 24 hr Observations Maximumtemperature minimum temperature and 24 hr accumulatedrainfall are the only 3meteorological parameters registered at0830 IST having effect of the past 24 hr variability behaviourClimatology for various parameters has been derived for pastdata and present data and presented in Tables 2 3 4 and5 in which months that constitute the different seasons arementioned Derived Δ values are also incorporated in theabove tables Comparison between past data and present datamaximum temperature climatology shows marked increasein present data climatology in relation to the past datacounterpart and thereby positive values alone are observedin Δ Δ values vary from +001∘C in the North East monsoon(NE monsoon) month November to +043∘C in the pre-South West monsoon (SW monsoon) month May The NEmonsoon season comprises October and November whereasthe four months from June to September designate SWmonsoon season which are the main two Indian seasonsIn minimum temperature all Δ values are positive withmaximum value in the winter month February with a value+053∘C The observations among maximum and minimumtemperature climatology derived in past data and presentdata along with Δ values can infer that the minimum dailytemperatures have generally increased at a larger rate thanthe maximum daily temperatures Karl et al [25] studied thepossible cause of increased urbanisation effects and Rebetezand Beniston [26] justified the result of increased cloud coverin the large increase in minimum temperature and smallincrease in maximum temperatures

From each individual daily maximum and minimumtemperature mean daily temperatures ((maximum temper-ature + minimum temperature)2) are computed and furtherderive the past data and present data climatologies of meantemperatures Only positive Δ values are observed through-out the year which clearly indicate that the temperature overthis tropical coastal station is increasing Temperature clima-tologies have shown the tropical monsoonal characteristic oftwo maxima and two minima in monthly variation

The diurnal temperature range is calculated from indi-vidual maximum and minimum temperature value andcalculated past data and present data temperature rangeclimatologies Range climatologies are featured by annualvariation The prominent feature of negative Δ values in

range is seen which shows that the difference betweenmaximum temperature and minimum temperature in a dayis decreasing Also the larger rate of increase in minimumtemperatures than maximum temperatures results in thesenegative Δ values in the diurnal temperature range

The rainfall Δ shows decrease in rainfall in present datafor the summermonthsApril andMayWell-marked negativeΔ values of about 21mm are observed in the SW monsoonmonths (JunendashAugust) An increase in rainfall activity isdetected in the SW monsoon month September and in theNE monsoon months October and November (debted tomonsoonal climate) with maximum value of +3650mm inOctober The station weather is dominated by convectivemesoscale systems during the NE monsoon Probably thisinvestigation poses the doubt about whether suchmeso-scaleweather phenomena like thunderstorm formations are onincreasing trend duringNEMonsoon and thereby an increasein Δ

32 Climatology of a Particular Observation at 0830 ISTAnalyses are carried out on different parameters collected at0830 IST Δ in dry bulb temperature wet bulb temperatureand dew point temperature obtained from the two climatolo-gies show only positive values It ranges from +060∘C in Julyto +101∘C in January for dry bulb temperature Variations inΔ among the SW monsoon months are less in general for allthe above three variables even though a maximum value inΔ is observed in dry bulb temperature The less variation ofwet bulb and dew point temperatures may be as a result ofmoisture laden atmosphere during the period which impartscorresponding variations in the moisture parameters like wetbulb temperature and dew point temperature

Station relative humidity values at 0830 IST show morethan 70 throughout the year with maximum in SW mon-soon of the order 89 Low negative values in Δ relativehumidity are detected as the air becomes drier in present datacompared to past As the air is getting dried both dew pointand the wet bulb temperatures are supposed to show negativeΔ values but the feature is not detectedThis may be inferredas the dry bulb temperature is the key parameter in elevatingΔ values of both dew point and wet bulb temperatures andthe meagre relative humidity decrease in present data thanpast data is insignificant to impartΔ changes in dewpoint andwet bulb temperatures Climatologies of RH also have showntwomaxima and twominimawhereas the secondaryminimaaround the NE monsoon is shallow in character

Significant positive Δ values are observed among the twoclimatologies in soil temperature with a low value of +099∘Cto a high of +235∘C in July and January respectively Perhapsthe Δ increase observed in the winter months January andFebruary may contribute reduction in radiational coolingwhich leads to a reduction in fog formation probability overthe station Soil temperature climatologies also have showntropical monsoonal type with two maxima and minima

Wind speed (both scalar and resultant) is decreased inpresent climatologies Mathematically resultant wind speedshall be determined as the square root of the sum of thesquares of zonal and meridional wind components Theencountered Δ values that rise to a maximum value of

Journal of Climatology 5

Table2Clim

atolog

yandΔof

maxim

umtemperaturem

inim

umtemperaturem

eandaily

temperaturem

eanrangeintemperatureand

mon

thlyrainfall

Mon

thMaxim

umtemperature∘

CMinim

umtemperature∘

CMeandaily

temperature∘

CMeanrangeintemperature∘

CMon

thlyrainfallmm

1964

ndash1993

1979ndash2008Δ

1964

ndash1993

1979ndash2008Δ

1964

ndash1993

1979ndash2008Δ

1964

ndash1993

1979ndash2008Δ

1964

ndash1993

1979ndash2008Δ

JAN

3259

3276

+017

2130

2158

+028

2694

2716

+022

1129

1117

minus012

1180

1110

minus070

FEB

3312

3332

+020

2189

2242

+053

2751

2787

+036

1124

1091minus033

1620

1640

+020

MAR

3384

3407

+023

2375

2413

+038

2878

2909

+031

1006

992

minus014

3320

3480

+160

APR

3425

3441

+016

2524

2551

+027

2976

2995

+019

905

888

minus017

10410

9940minus470

MAY

3303

3346

+043

2514

2550

+036

2912

2948

+036

797

796

minus001

1792

016580minus1340

JUN

3036

3071

+035

2399

2436

+037

2720

2753

+033

643

635

minus008

29270

27220minus2050

JUL

2938

2948

+010

2336

2379

+043

2638

2663

+025

603

568

minus035

20300

1813

0minus2170

AUG

2927

2960

+033

2339

2380

+041

2635

2670

+035

592

579

minus013

1415

012090minus2060

SEP

3034

3070

+036

2368

2400

+032

2704

2734

+030

671

667

minus004

15820

1710

0+1280

OCT

3119

3153

+034

2374

2404

+030

2750

2776

+026

753

744

minus009

20490

2414

0+3

650

NOV

3176

3177

+001

2321

2357

+036

2748

2767

+019

853

820

minus033

16680

17070

+390

DEC

3230

3256

+026

2244

2244

+000

2735

2750

+015

983

1011

+028

6660

5370minus1290

DEC

JANand

FEB

winterMAR

APR

and

MAY

sum

merJUNJULAU

Gand

SEP

SWmon

soon

OCT

NOV

NEmon

soon

6 Journal of Climatology

Table3Clim

atolog

yandΔof

dry-bu

lbtemperaturew

etbu

lbtemperaturedew

pointtem

peraturerelativeh

umidityand

soiltemperature

Mon

thDry-bulbtemperature

(0830IST)∘

CWet-bulbtemperature

(0830IST)∘

CDew

pointtem

perature

(0830IST)∘

CRe

lativeh

umidity

()

(0830IST)

Soiltemperature

(0830IST)∘

C1964

ndash1993

1979ndash2008Δ

1964

ndash1993

1979ndash2008Δ

1964

ndash1993

1979ndash2008Δ

1964

ndash1993

1979ndash2008Δ

1964

ndash1993

1979ndash2008Δ

JAN

2606

2707

+101

2233

2290

+057

2035

2069

+034

7136

6885minus251

2903

3138

+235

FEB

2677

2771

+094

2304

2355

+051

2112

2143

+031

7176

6941minus235

3041

3254

+213

MAR

2831

2920

+089

2458

2494

+036

2281

2294

+013

7255

6953

minus302

3280

3425

+145

APR

2929

3000

+071

2609

2630

+021

2471

2472

+001

7656

7361minus295

3373

3511

+138

MAY

2870

2943

+073

2612

2643

+031

2502

2517

+015

8094

7833

minus261

3246

3416

+170

JUN

2661

2733

+072

2520

2557

+037

2455

2481

+026

8851

8643minus208

2955

3099

+144

JUL

2576

2636

+060

2455

2488

+033

2395

2421

+026

8980

8803minus17

72901

3000

+099

AUG

2590

2660

+070

2460

2496

+036

2397

2422

+025

8940

8698minus242

2960

3096

+136

SEP

2662

2737

+075

2484

2521

+037

2402

2425

+023

8577

8345minus232

3110

3223

+113

OCT

2681

2759

+078

2490

2533

+043

2402

2432

+030

8501

8261minus240

3140

3245

+105

NOV

2690

2763

+073

2440

2486

+046

2327

2358

+031

8084

7935minus14

93099

3202

+103

DEC

2670

2759

+089

2335

2372

+037

2161

2174

+013

7448

7139

minus309

3052

3209

+157

DEC

JANand

FEB

winterMAR

APR

and

MAY

sum

merJUNJULAU

Gand

SEP

SWmon

soon

OCT

NOV

NEmon

soon

Journal of Climatology 7

Table4Clim

atolog

yandΔof

visib

ilitycodelow

cloud

highclo

udand

totalcloud

Mon

thVisib

ilitycode

(0830IST)

Lowclo

ud(0830IST)

Middlec

loud

(0830IST)

Highclo

ud(0830IST)

Totalcloud

(0830IST)

1964

ndash1993

1979ndash2008Δ

1964

ndash1993

1979ndash2008Δ

1964

ndash1993

1979ndash2008Δ

1964

ndash1993

1979ndash2008Δ

1964

ndash1993

1979ndash2008Δ

JAN

9679

9698

+019

055

047

minus008

081

078

minus003

118

135

+017

251

253

+002

FEB

9675

9691

+016

048

047

minus001

066

058

minus008

108

116

+008

221

217

minus004

MAR

9661

9688

+027

062

071

+009

054

037

minus017

106

121

+015

220

224

+004

APR

9677

9686

+009

125

157

+032

100

087

minus013

172

179

+007

391

394

+003

MAY

9670

9668minus002

202

208

+006

145

143minus002

156

164

+008

487

468

minus019

JUN

9626

9643

+017

286

284

minus002

231

237

+006

116

149

+033

596

590

minus006

JUL

9610

9637

+027

274

274

+000

250

282

+032

126

167

+041

596

606

+010

AUG

9641

9658

+017

227

238

+011

231

228

minus003

131

186

+055

563

568

+005

SEP

9648

9663

+015

216

215

minus001

163

162minus001

134

162

+028

493

490

minus003

OCT

9676

9670minus006

175

196

+021

207

214

+007

129

173

+044

492

506

+014

NOV

9668

9665minus003

144

155

+011

186

194

+008

126

172

+046

440

465

+025

DEC

9681

9679minus002

101

091

minus010

140

115minus025

120

140

+020

356

325

minus031

DEC

JANand

FEB

winterMAR

APR

and

MAY

sum

merJUNJULAU

Gand

SEP

SWmon

soon

OCT

NOV

NEmon

soon

8 Journal of Climatology

Table 5 Climatology and Δ of wind speed (scalar) wind speed (resultant) and wind steadiness factor

MonthWind speed (scalar)(0830 IST) msminus1

Wind speed (resultant)(0830 IST) msminus1

Wind steadiness factor(0830 IST) ()

1964ndash1993 1979ndash2008 Δ 1979ndash2008 Δ 1964ndash1993 1979ndash2008 Δ

JAN 104 075 minus029 071 033 minus038 6889 4448 minus2441FEB 107 081 minus026 073 038 minus035 6795 4736 minus2059MAR 121 100 minus021 083 056 minus027 6849 5615 minus1234APR 129 100 minus029 092 063 minus029 7146 6315 minus831MAY 145 104 minus041 114 075 minus039 7840 7244 minus596JUN 149 109 minus040 103 08 minus023 6897 7365 +468JUL 168 135 minus033 115 094 minus021 6808 6960 +152AUG 161 131 minus030 136 105 minus031 8468 7999 minus469SEP 157 110 minus047 117 081 minus036 7457 7406 minus051OCT 110 082 minus028 064 040 minus024 5869 4926 minus943NOV 097 074 minus023 049 023 minus026 5029 3117 minus1912DEC 101 075 minus026 067 037 minus030 6644 4888 minus1756DEC JAN and FEB winter MAR APR and MAY summer JUN JUL AUG and SEP SWmonsoon OCT NOV NE monsoon

the order 05ms are due to decrease in wind speeds inthe present data climatology in comparison with past dataclimatology Wind steadiness factor values at 0830 IST arecomputed as the ratio of mean resultant wind speed to meanscalar wind (average value of scalar wind speeds) expressed in and the two slot climatologies are made Wind steadinessfactor is a general meteorological technique in order to derivethe quantitative estimate of steadiness of wind direction[27] The feature of losing controllability of blowing windsfrom a specific direction (computed from wind steadiness)as the demand of a particular season might be justified asa result of heat island effect of the very fast developingurbanisation hardly 8 km East South East of the observatoryand the increasing vehicle populations and thereby drasticmodifications in at 0830 IST observations which belongto land breeze prevalence over the station in the non-SWmonsoonal months (up to a maximum of 20 decrease)Throughout the day strong seabreeze is in prevalence in theSW monsoon months Even in the SW monsoon which isdominantly associated with unidirectional wind flow slightdeteriorations in the steadiness of the wind directions haveobserved Both the above observations brought out thephenomenal changes in the steadiness of offshorewinds (landbreeze) at 0830 IST during the non-SW monsoonal monthsat greater extend and onshore wind (sea breeze) at 0830 ISTduring the SW monsoon steadiness in smaller grades Thefeature of very prominent decrease in direction steadinessin preset data to the past is clearly detected As negative Δdominance exists in the non-SW monsoon months wherechange over of land-sea breezes are so pronounced for thestation this observation may be further studied in order tocheck any possible modifications in the meso-scale meteoro-logical phenomena like sealand breeze thunderstorms dueto associated thermal and moisture environment changes

Visibility and cloud climatologies are also studied Asthese observational procedures are non-instrumental thedata is too subjective and quality observation is solely vested

260265270275280285290295300305

Tem

pera

ture

(∘C)

(a)

00040812162024

Date

Stan

dard

devi

atio

n (∘

C)

1964ndash19931979ndash2008

Jan

1 10 20 10 20M

ar 1 10 20

Apr

1 10 20M

ay 1 20

Jun

1 10 20Ju

l 1 10 20A

ug 1 10 20

Sep

1 10

Oct

1 10 20N

ov 1 10 20

Dec

1 10 20 D

ec 3

1

(b)

Figure 2 (a) Mean daily temperature climatologies in 1964ndash19931979ndash2008 and their differences along with (b) standard deviationof corresponding climatologies

on the experience of the weather observer The observationshows better visibility codes in the present data climatologyA visibility code of 96 and above signifies that a well-definedobject (like a mobile phone tower) at least 1 km far can bedistinctly differentiable Among various cloud climatologydominant positiveΔ values are existed in high clouds throughout the year whichmay be pointed out as one of the reason forsubdued albedo effect which enhances greenhouse effect and

Journal of Climatology 9

50556065707580859095

100105110115120125

Tem

pera

ture

rang

e (∘ C)

(a)

0004081216202428

Date

Stan

dard

devi

atio

n(∘

C)

1964ndash19931979ndash2008

Jan

1 10 20 10 20M

ar 1 10 20

Apr

1 10 20M

ay 1 20

Jun

1 10 20Ju

l 1 10 20A

ug 1 10 20

Sep

1 10

Oct

1 10 20N

ov 1 10 20

Dec

1 10 20 D

ec 3

1

(b)

Figure 3 (a) Mean daily temperature range climatologies in 1964ndash1993 1979ndash2008 and their differences along with (b) standarddeviation of corresponding climatologies

285290295300305310315320325330335340345350

Max

imum

tem

pera

ture

(∘C)

(a)

00040812162024

Jan

1 10 20 10 20M

ar 1 10 20

Apr 1 10 20

May

1 20Ju

n 1 10 20

Jul 1 10 20

Aug

1 10 20Se

p 1 10

Oct

1 10 20N

ov 1 10 20

Dec

1 10 20 D

ec 3

1

Date

Stan

dard

devi

atio

n(∘

C)

1964ndash19931979ndash2008

(b)

Figure 4 (a) Maximum daily temperature climatologies in 1964ndash1993 1979ndash2008 and their differences along with (b) standarddeviation of corresponding climatologies

200205210215220225230235240245250255260265

Min

imum

tem

pera

ture

(∘C)

(a)

00040812162024

Date

Stan

dard

devi

atio

n(∘

C)

1964ndash19931979ndash2008

Jan

1 10 20Fe

b 1 10 20

Mar

1 10 20A

pr 1 10 20

May

1 10 20Ju

n 1 10 20

Jul 1 10 20

Aug

1 10 20Se

p 1 10 20

Oct

1 10 20N

ov 1 10 20

Dec

1 10 20 D

ec 3

1

(b)

Figure 5 (a) Minimum daily temperature climatologies in 1964ndash1993 1979ndash2008 and their differences along with (b) standarddeviation of corresponding climatologies

0102030405060708090100

Less than zero Zero Greater than zero0

20406080

100120140160180200220240260280300320340360

Occ

urre

nces

(day

s)

Daily max tempDaily min temp

Daily mean tempRange

Occ

urre

nces

()

Figure 6 Difference statistics for 365 days between present data andpast data on daily maximum minimum mean temperatures andrange in temperature within a day

hereby surface temperature escalationThis may be the resultof number of high cloud types (Ci and Cc) are less comparedto the varieties of low and middle cloud types which enableseasy estimation for the observer while making counts onhigh clouds The increase in high cloud climatology valuesin present data may be the result of increase in air trafficresulted contrails over the region which results an increasein cirrus cloud formations due to tropical dynamics unlike

10 Journal of Climatology

271273275277279281283285

Mea

n te

mpe

ratu

re (∘

C)

101214161820

Stan

dard

devi

atio

n(∘

C)

dydx = 0013

r = 0891

(a)

minus10minus08minus06minus04minus02

00204060810

Tem

pera

ture

anom

aly

(∘C)

1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010(year)

dydx = 0013

r = 0891

Mean temperature11pt soothed line

Fitted lineStandard deviation

(b)

Figure 7 (a) Yearly mean temperature along with standard devia-tion and (b) anomaly

308312316320324328

1517192123252729dydx = 0012

r = 0725

Max

imum

tem

pera

ture

(∘C)

Stan

dard

devi

atio

n(∘

C)

(a)

minus12minus08minus04

0040812

1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010(year)

dydx = 0012

r = 0725

Tem

pera

ture

anom

aly

(∘C)

Standard deviationFitted line

11pt soothed lineMaximum temperature

(b)

Figure 8 (a) Yearly mean maximum temperature along withstandard deviation and (b) anomaly

microphysical processes in mid-latitudes as in Minnis et al[28] Zerefos et al [29] Eleftheratos et al [30] have studiedthe variability of cirrus clouds over the tropics governedby the activity of El Nino Southern Oscillation the QuasiBiennial Oscillation and solar activity Possible radiationbudget alterations modifications at the time of occurrenceof minimum and maximum temperatures are to be criticallyexamined as a part of future investigations Prominent twomaxima (secondarymaximum is very shallower compared to

dydx = 0014

r = 0952

226230234238242246

1012141618202224

Min

imum

tem

pera

ture

(∘C)

Stan

dard

dev

iatio

n(∘

C)

(a)

minus12minus08minus04

0040812

1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

dydx = 0014

r = 0952

(year)

Standard deviationFitted line11pt soothed lineMinimum temperature

Tem

pera

ture

anom

aly

(∘C)

(b)

Figure 9 (a) Yearly mean minimum temperature along withstandard deviation and (b) anomaly

dydx = 0002

r = 0190

1620242832

Stan

dard

dev

iatio

n

6670747882869094

Tem

pera

ture

rang

e(∘ C)

(a)

minus12minus08minus04

0040812

dydx = 0002

r = 0190

1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

Tem

pera

ture

rang

ean

omal

y(∘

C)

(year)

Temperature range11pt soothed line

Fitted lineStandard deviation

(b)

Figure 10 (a) Yearly mean temperature range along with standarddeviation and (b) anomaly

the primary) and two minima were seen in middle high andtotal cloud climatology

33 Mean Daily Climatology in Temperature Mean of dailymaximum minimum mean and range in temperaturebetween daily maximum and minimum temperatures arecomputed and depicted for the 365 days in a year (Figures2 3 4 and 5) along with their standard deviations Theincrease inmean daily values in present data temperatures arequite obvious and standard deviation values are fallen within

Journal of Climatology 11

(year)

123456789

101112

(mon

th)

1964 1966 1968 1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008

No data

20181614121008060402minus00minus02minus04minus06minus08minus10minus12minus14minus16minus18minus20

(∘C)

Figure 11 Maximum temperature anomaly

27∘C for all the four mean daily climatologies A differencestatistics for 365 days between present data to past data ismade and is shown in Figure 6 Out of 365 days more than80 mean daily maximum minimum and mean tempera-tures are distributed as greater than zero occurrences in thedifference statistics An elevated frequency of occurrence ofmore than 65 under less than zero class is a concrete featurewhich implies that the range amongmaximumandminimumtemperature is alarmingly diminishing

34 Interannual Variability Inter annual variability has crit-ically examined for annual mean of minimum maximumand mean temperatures annual rainfall in the SW and NEmonsoon over the station and for theKerala State and averageannual surface pressure in the SW and NE monsoons forthe station Each inter annual variability data has undergonean 11 year moving average with end point extrapolation tillthe raw data availability to bring out long term trend andthe trend line also has shown in each inter annual variabilityfigures similar to Krishnakumar et al [22] for the interannualvariability of rainfall over Kerala Interpolated values areobtained for each year from the trend and such a data setobtained has been subjected to statistical significant testinterpolated data has not taken for a particular year if theraw data point is missing for the corresponding year Thismethod has enabled no reduction in the degrees of freedom(df ) To confirm the statistical significance on various 11year moving averaged data and also to assess the strength ofsample correlation coefficient (119903) linear regression t-test werecarried out and the results are presented (Table 6) Generallystrong and significant linear trend variations are observedEven though linear trends of maximum and minimumtemperatures have shown strong and significant statisticaltrends the derived variable-temperature range has resulteda weak and insignificant test statisticThis may be statisticallyinferred as a variable derived out of two variables whichfavours strong and significant test statistic separately need notshow the same test static of strong and significant

341 Interannual Variability in Temperature To assess theinterannual variability with temperature annual mean min-imum mean maximum and mean of mean temperaturesare found out for each year from 1964 to 2008 Also to

ascertain deviation from the normal each yearly mean valueis deducted from the mean of the entire values available forpresent data and thereby extracted the anomaly in tempera-ture Mean and standard deviation of daily mean maximumminimum and daily temperature range are computed for ayear and depicted in Figures 7 8 9 and 10 The fitted lineartrend line slope (dydx) as well as correlation coefficient (119903)values are annotated in graphs It is seen that from bothmeandaily temperature as well as from the maximum temperaturean abrupt prominent shift or a discernible upward trendis occurred after 1976 may be like the ldquoclimate shiftrdquo asstated by Trenberth [24] The 45 year rate in mean dailymaximum andminimum are obtained as +0585∘C +0540∘Cand +0630∘C respectively or with decadal rates of (+013 plusmn001)∘C (+012 plusmn 002)∘C and (+014 plusmn 00)∘C accordingly Inthe obtained value for the global mean surface temperatureas a whole (+007 plusmn 002)∘C surface temperatures over landhave risen at about double the ocean rate after 1979 (morethan (+027 plusmn 006)∘C per decade versus (+013 plusmn 004)∘Cper decade) as per the Trenberth et al [31] From 1950 to2004 the global land trend in diurnal temperature range wasextracted as negative (minus007∘C per decade) although tropicalareas are still underrepresented [31] Kumar et al [32] showedtrends of increase in diurnal temperature range significantincrease in annual maximum temperature and practicallytrendless annual minimum temperature over India in thelast century Our inter annual variability results coincidemostly with former studied data period which supports thedecrease of diurnal temperature range and the same is veryvivid from Figure 6 discussed earlier It infers that for thistropical coastal station the obtained decadal rate of (+0130plusmn001)∘C which is in agreement with global ocean rate maybe due to the station being coastal in origin The errorvalue reduction by plusmn003∘C for TERLS can be due to morestabilized single station data Also rate of increase in trend forminimum temperature is high in comparison to maximumtemperature A decreasing trend in maximum temperature isnoticed after 2005 with decreasing standard deviation valuesThis observation might be correct as a result of shifting theobservatory since 1964 to hardly 30m towards north in 2005were smooth and free sea-breeze flow which enables abruptreach of maximum temperature in the diurnal course aroundthe time of sea breeze onset The feature of attaining themaximum temperature of the day around the time of onset of

12 Journal of Climatology

Table 6 Linear trends of 11 year moving averaged data on various inter-annual variability Level of significance was choosen at 005 toread out critical 119905 values (119905

119888

) corresponding to the degree of freedom (df ) If 119903 gt 05 strong 119903 lt 05 weak 119905 gt 119905119888

significant and 119905 lt 119905119888

notsignificant

No Interannualvariability in 119903

Slope (119889119910119889119909) plusmnerror Calculated 119905 df Comments Data missing

1 Mean temperature 0891 0013 plusmn 0001 1208154 38Strong and

significant (Figures7(a) and 7(b))

1974 1975 19761982 and 1992

2 Mean maximumtemperature 0725 00121 plusmn 0002 650392 38

Strong andsignificant

(Figures 8(a) and 8(b)

1974 1975 19761982 and 1992

3 Mean minimumtemperature 0952 0014 plusmn 0000 1929677 38

Strong andsignificant

(Figures 9(a) and9(b))

1974 1975 19761982 and 1992

4 Mean temperaturerange minus0190 minus0002 plusmn 0002 minus119078 38

Weak and notsignificant

(Figure 10(a))

1974 1975 19761982 and 1992

5South West

monsoon rainfall(Thumba)

minus0477 minus2145 plusmn 0616 minus3483 41 Weak and significant(Figure 14) 1964 1998

6North East

monsoon rainfall(Thumba)

0848 3928 plusmn 0393 10000 39 Strong and significant(Figure 15)

1964 1977 1992and 1998

7South West

monsoon rainfall(Kerala)

minus0721 minus6149 plusmn 0934 minus6587 40 Strong and significant(Figure 16)

1964 2007 and2008

8North East

monsoon rainfall(Kerala)

0737 3430 plusmn 0491 6986 41 Strong and significant(Figure 17) 1964 2008

9South West

monsoon surfacepressure

0445 0006 plusmn 0002 2899 34 Weak and significant(Figure 18) 1964 to 1972

10North East

monsoon surfacepressure

minus0616 0010 plusmn 0002 minus4555 34 Strong and significant(Figure 19) 1964 to 1972

123456789

101112

(mon

th)

1964 1966 1968 1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008

No data

20181614121008060402minus00minus02minus04minus06minus08minus10minus12minus14minus16minus18minus20

(∘C)

Figure 12 Minimum temperature anomaly

sea breeze is known [33] As the station is of coastal in originthe occurrence of daily maximum temperature is very muchlinked to the setting and strong establishment of sea breezefront towards the land areas

Mean monthly anomaly structures in minimum max-imum and mean temperatures are presented in time sec-tion contour diagrams (Figures 11 12 and 13) All contour

depictions show well-marked temperature increase duringthe course of years and are so pronounced after 1976

342 Interannual Variability in SW and NE Monsoon Rain-fall and Surface Pressure Interannual variability in rainfalland surface pressure particularly for SW monsoon and NEmonsoon are studied A decrease in trend in SW monsoon

Journal of Climatology 13

123456789

101112

(mon

th)

(year)1964 1966 1968 1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008

No data

14121008060402

(∘C)

minus00minus02minus04minus06minus08minus10minus12minus14minus16minus18minus20minus22

Figure 13 Mean temperature anomaly

300400500600700800900

100011001200130014001500

1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010(year)

Rain

fall

(mm

)

dydx = minus2145

r = minus0477

Figure 14 South West monsoon rainfall over Thumba

(year)

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1000

1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

Rain

fall

(mm

)

dydx = 3928

r = 0848

Figure 15 North East monsoon rainfall over Thumba

and an increase in trend in NE monsoons are the observedfeatures over the station with decadal variability of (minus215 plusmn62)mm and (+393 plusmn 39)mm respectively (Figures 14and 15) Analysis by considering initial rainfall values (atthe beginning year on the fitted straight line) of SouthWest monsoon North East monsoon corresponding slopeof them as 817822mm 296535mm minus215mmdecade and

(year)

1000

1250

1500

1750

2000

2250

2500

2750

3000

3250

1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

Rain

fall

(mm

)

dydx = minus6149r = minus0721

Figure 16 South West monsoon rainfall over Kerala

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1000

1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010(year)

Rain

fall

(mm

)

r = 0737

dydx = 3430

Figure 17 North East monsoon rainfall over Kerala

393mmdecade respectively shows the likelihood exceedof North East monsoon rainfall over South West monsoonover this region after the year 2050 if the current trendcontinues Similar analyses are carried out on the slot 1965to 2007 for the Kerala meteorological subdivision from thelongest instrumental rainfall series of the Indian regions(1813ndash2006) ([34] httpwwwtropmetresin) The actualrainfall amount over Kerala during 2007 is obtained from the

14 Journal of Climatology

10070100751008010085100901009510100

Pres

sure

(mb)

dydx = 00061r = 04452

(a)

101214161820

1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008100012501500175020002250

Standard deviationNumber of observations

(year)

Stan

dard

de

viat

ion

(mb)

No

of o

bser

vatio

ns

(b)

Figure 18 (a) Interannual variability in surface pressure for SouthWest monsoon season along with (b) standard deviation andnumber of observations

100801008510090100951010010105101101011510120

Pres

sure

(mb)

dydx = minus0010r = minus0616

(a)

10

15

20

25

1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008500700900110013001500

Standard deviationNo of observations

(year)

Stan

dard

de

viat

ion

(mb)

No

of o

bser

vatio

ns

(b)

Figure 19 (a) Interannual variability in surface pressure for NorthEastmonsoon season alongwith (b) standard deviation and numberof observations

quarterly journal theMAUSAM (July 2008 andOctober 2008issues) Decadal variations show a decreasing trend in SWmonsoon by (minus615 plusmn 93)mm and increasing trend in NEmonsoon by (+340 plusmn 49)mm (Figures 16 and 17)

Interannual variability in surface pressure was derivedand depicted for SW monsoon (Figure 18) and NE monsoon(Figure 19) For this every hourly data available since 1973

was subjected to mean monthly value computation Numberof observations available ranges from 1100 to 2245 in SWmonsoon and 500 to 1495 in NE monsoon respectivelyand provided along with the standard deviation values inthe above figures Since atmospheric pressure is a highlystabilized property over a region for a particular season thedecadal trend variability observed is (+006 plusmn 002)mb and(ndash010plusmn002)mb for SWmonsoon andNEmonsoon respec-tively The positive (increase) and negative (decrease) inter-annual trends observed in SW monsoon and NE monsoonrespectively might have contributed possible implications inthe development of associated synoptic scale meteorologicalsystems (position and orientation of troughsridges and lowpressures) and thereby corresponding decrease and increasein SWmonsoon and NE monsoon rainfall trends

4 Conclusion

Long-term surface meteorological records from TERLS werecollected and analysed to study the long-term changes inoverall climatology climatology pertained to a particulartime of observation mean daily climatology in temperatureinterannual variability in temperature interannual variabilityin SW andNEmonsoon rainfall andmeanmonthly anomalystructure in temperature Results on various analyses showstrong and vivid features contributed by climate change Thesalient features observed contributed by climate change are asfollows

(1) All the temperatures show increase in their behaviourwith slight decrease in RH between the presentclimatology and past climatology

(2) Steadiness of wind decreases especially in non-SWmonsoon months which gives an indirect signatureof possible modifications in meso-scale systems

(3) High cloud climatology increases and thereby proba-ble modifications in radiation budget time of occur-rence of maximum and minimum temperatures

(4) Daily statistics for 365 days show more than 80exceedance in present climatology in comparison topast in minimum maximum andmean temperature

(5) Interannual variability analysis in mean temperaturefor this tropical coastal station shows +13∘C100 yearswhich is same as that of global ocean rate

(6) Observed interannual rainfall variability in SWmon-soon and North East monsoon shows decrease intrend by ndash2145mmdecade and increase in trendby +393mmdecade respectively Prognosis on thisobservation points out the likelihood exceedance ofNE monsoon rainfall over the South West monsoonafter the year 2050 for the station But it is prejudicialto infer that the rainfall increase in NE monsoon cancompensate the forecasted decrease in SWmonsoonsince NE monsoon is mostly of heavy rainfall innature as a result of meso-scale convective systemsSuch rainfall runoff is very fast than the slow waterinfiltration feature in association with SW monsoon

Journal of Climatology 15

rainfall which is essential for irrigation and agricul-tural needs

(7) Decadal variability in surface pressure has shown+006mb and minus010mb for SW monsoon and NEmonsoon respectively

The imprints due to climate change on various meteoro-logical parameters over this coastal station proved that theregion also faces vulnerable situation due to the phenom-ena and therefore necessary engineeringmethodssocioeco-nomic steps are to be undertaken

Acknowledgments

The availability of this unique data for a continuous periodof 45 years is the outcome of concerted and whole heartedefforts put in by the staffs of TERLSIndia MeteorologicalDepartment It is a pleasure to acknowledge with esteemedgratitude the team that worked since 1963 at the TERLSThumba whose efforts have yielded the voluminous uniquedata bank which is available for investigations The authorsare extremely grateful to Dr K Krishnamoorthy DirectorSpace Physics Laboratory VSSC and the reviewers for theirvaluable comments that helped to improve the paper to thefinal form

References

[1] N Oreskes ldquoThe scientific consensus on climatic changerdquoScience vol 306 p 1686 2004

[2] H Ayyar Effect of Pollution on Weather Science ReporterCouncil of Scientific and Industrial Research (CSIR) 1973

[3] K Rupa Kumar A K Sahai K Krishna Kumar et al ldquoHigh-resolution climate change scenarios for India for the 21stcenturyrdquo Current Science vol 90 no 3 pp 334ndash345 2006

[4] P Brohan J J Kennedy I Harris S F B Tett and P DJones ldquoUncertainty estimates in regional and global observedtemperature changes a new data set from 1850rdquo Journal ofGeophysical Research D vol 111 no 12 Article IDD12106 2006

[5] T M Smith and R W Reynolds ldquoA global merged land-air-sea surface temperature reconstruction based on historicalobservations (1880ndash1997)rdquo Journal of Climate vol 18 no 12 pp2021ndash2036 2005

[6] K M Lugina P Y Groisman K Y Vinnikov V V Koknaevaand N A Speranskaya ldquoMonthly surface air temperature timeseries area-averaged over the 30-degree latitudinal belts of theglobe 1881-2004 In Trends a compendium of data on globalchangerdquo Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Centre OakRidge National Laboratory US Department of Energy OakRidge TennUSA 2005 httpcdiacesdornlgovtrendstempluginaluginahtml

[7] J Hansen R RuedyM Sato et al ldquoA closer look atUnited Statesand global surface temperature changerdquo Journal of GeophysicalResearch D vol 106 no 20 pp 23947ndash23963 2001

[8] S Solomon D Quin M Manning et al ldquoContribution ofworking group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the IPCCrdquoTech Rep IPCC-AR4 2007

[9] R C Balling Jr and S W Brazel ldquoRecent changes in PhoenixArizona summertime diurnal precipitation patternsrdquo Theoreti-cal and Applied Climatology vol 38 no 1 pp 50ndash54 1987

[10] R Bornstein and Q Lin ldquoUrban heat islands and summertimeconvective thunderstorms in Atlanta three case studiesrdquoAtmo-spheric Environment vol 34 no 3 pp 507ndash516 2000

[11] P G Dixon and T L Mote ldquoPatterns and cause of Atlandarsquosurban heat island-initiated precipitationrdquo Journal of AppliedMeteorology vol 42 pp 1273ndash1284 2003

[12] F Fujibe ldquoLong-term surface wind changes in the Tokyometropolitan area in the afternoon of sunny days in the warmseasonrdquo Journal of the Meteorological Society of Japan vol 81no 1 pp 141ndash149 2003

[13] T Inoue and F Kimura ldquoUrban effects on low-level cloudsaround the Tokyo metropolitan area on clear summer daysrdquoGeophysical Research Letters vol 31 no 5 Article ID L051032004

[14] JM ShepherdH Pierce andA J Negri ldquoRainfallmodificationby major urban areas observations from spaceborne rain radaron the TRMM satelliterdquo Journal of Applied Meteorology vol 41no 7 pp 689ndash701 2002

[15] C Price SMichaelides S Pashiardis and P Alpert ldquoLong termchanges in diurnal temperature range in Cyprusrdquo AtmosphericResearch vol 51 no 2 pp 85ndash98 1999

[16] H N Singh S D Patil S D Bansod and N Singh ldquoSeasonalvariability in mean sea level pressure extremes over the Indianregionrdquo Atmospheric Research vol 101 no 1-2 pp 102ndash111 2011

[17] J Kingwell J Shimizu K Narita H Kawabata and I ShimizuldquoWeather factors affecting rocket operations a review and casehistoryrdquo American Meteorological Society vol 72 pp 778ndash7931991

[18] R E Turner and C K Hill Terrestrial Environment (Climatic)Guidlines for Use in Aerospace Vehicle Development 1982 Revi-sion Technical Memor 82473 National Aeronautics and SpaceAdministration 1982

[19] ldquoSpace Research in Indiardquo in Proceedings of the 38th COSPARMeeting pp 199ndash204 Bremen Germeny 2010

[20] P V Joseph and A Simon ldquoWeakening trend of the southwestmonsoon current through peninsular India from 1950 to thepresentrdquo Current Science vol 89 no 4 pp 687ndash694 2005

[21] S K Dash J R Kumar and M S Shekhar ldquoOn the decreasingfrequency of monsoon depressions over the Indian regionrdquoCurrent Science vol 86 no 10 pp 1404ndash1411 2004

[22] K N Krishnakumar G S L H V Prasada Rao and C SGopakumar ldquoRainfall trends in twentieth century over KeralaIndiardquo Atmospheric Environment vol 43 no 11 pp 1940ndash19442009

[23] National Council of Educational Research and Training(NCERT) India Text book of physicsmdashpart I for class 11 2006

[24] K E Trenberth ldquoRecent observed interdecadal climate changesin the Northern Hemisphererdquo Bulletin of the American Meteo-rological Society vol 71 no 7 pp 988ndash993 1990

[25] T K Karl H F Diaz and G Kukla ldquoUrbanization its detectionand effect in the United States climate recordrdquo Journal ofClimate vol 1 pp 1099ndash1123 1988

[26] M Rebetez andM Beniston ldquoChanges in sunshine duration arecorrelated with changes in daily temperature range this centuryan analysis of Swiss climatological datardquo Geophysical ResearchLetters vol 25 no 19 pp 3611ndash3613 1998

[27] K V S Namboodiri P K Dileep and K Mammen ldquoWindsteadiness up to 35 km and its variability before the SouthWestMonsoon onset and the withdrawalrdquoMausam vol 63 pp 275ndash282 2012

16 Journal of Climatology

[28] PMinnis A J Kirk P Rabindra and P Dung ldquoContrails cirrustrends and climaterdquo Journal of Climate vol 17 pp 1671ndash16852004

[29] C S Zerefos K Eleftheratos D S Balis P Zanis G Tselioudisand C Meleti ldquoEvidence of impact of aviation on cirrus cloudformationrdquoAtmospheric Chemistry and Physics vol 3 no 5 pp1633ndash1644 2003

[30] K Eleftheratos C S Zerefos C Varotsos and I KapsomenakisldquoInterannual variability of cirrus clouds in the tropics in elnino southern oscillation (ENSO) regions based on interna-tional satellite cloud climatology project (ISCCP) satellite datardquoInternational Journal of Remote Sensing vol 32 no 21 pp 6395ndash6405 2011

[31] K E Trenberth P D Jones and P Ambenje ldquoObservationssurface and climate changerdquo in Climate Change 2007 ThePhysical Science Basis Contribution of working group I to theFourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel onClimate Change S Solomon D Qin and M Manning EdsCambridge University Press Cambridge UK 2007

[32] K R Kumar K K Kumar and G B Pant ldquoDiurnal asymmetryof surface temperature trends over Indiardquo Geophysical ResearchLetters vol 21 no 8 pp 677ndash680 1994

[33] T R Sivaramakrishnan and P S Prakash Rao ldquoSea-breezefeatures over Sriharikota Indiardquo Meteorological Magazine vol118 no 1400 pp 64ndash67 1989

[34] NA SontakkeN Singh andHN Singh ldquoInstrumental periodrainfall series of the Indian region (AD 1813ndash2005) revisedreconstruction update and analysisrdquoHolocene vol 18 no 7 pp1055ndash1066 2008

Submit your manuscripts athttpwwwhindawicom

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Applied ampEnvironmentalSoil Science

Volume 2014

Advances in

Hindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

Environmental Chemistry

Atmospheric SciencesInternational Journal of

Hindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

Hindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

Waste ManagementJournal of

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International Journal of

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OceanographyInternational Journal of

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Hindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

ClimatologyJournal of

Page 4: Research Article Climatic Variation at Thumba Equatorial Rocket Launching Station, India · 2016. 8. 22. · Research Article Climatic Variation at Thumba Equatorial Rocket Launching

4 Journal of Climatology

summation of errors [23] of past and present data sets Indi-vidual error is computed as the ratio of standard deviation tothe number of observations of a particular data set Trenberth[24] has established the climate shift as a prominent upwardtrend in temperature after 1976 In order to include thisobservation influence half portion (15 years) period from1979 to 1993 ismade common in the latter half of past data andin the former part of present data The difference obtainedamong present data and past data has been represented as Δin the discussions throughout To see genuineness in findingsattributed to climate change Δ values are compared withabsolute errors so as to see that Δ do not fall within absoluteerrors of corresponding meteorological parameters

3 Results and Discussion

31 Δ Climatology of the Past 24 hr Observations Maximumtemperature minimum temperature and 24 hr accumulatedrainfall are the only 3meteorological parameters registered at0830 IST having effect of the past 24 hr variability behaviourClimatology for various parameters has been derived for pastdata and present data and presented in Tables 2 3 4 and5 in which months that constitute the different seasons arementioned Derived Δ values are also incorporated in theabove tables Comparison between past data and present datamaximum temperature climatology shows marked increasein present data climatology in relation to the past datacounterpart and thereby positive values alone are observedin Δ Δ values vary from +001∘C in the North East monsoon(NE monsoon) month November to +043∘C in the pre-South West monsoon (SW monsoon) month May The NEmonsoon season comprises October and November whereasthe four months from June to September designate SWmonsoon season which are the main two Indian seasonsIn minimum temperature all Δ values are positive withmaximum value in the winter month February with a value+053∘C The observations among maximum and minimumtemperature climatology derived in past data and presentdata along with Δ values can infer that the minimum dailytemperatures have generally increased at a larger rate thanthe maximum daily temperatures Karl et al [25] studied thepossible cause of increased urbanisation effects and Rebetezand Beniston [26] justified the result of increased cloud coverin the large increase in minimum temperature and smallincrease in maximum temperatures

From each individual daily maximum and minimumtemperature mean daily temperatures ((maximum temper-ature + minimum temperature)2) are computed and furtherderive the past data and present data climatologies of meantemperatures Only positive Δ values are observed through-out the year which clearly indicate that the temperature overthis tropical coastal station is increasing Temperature clima-tologies have shown the tropical monsoonal characteristic oftwo maxima and two minima in monthly variation

The diurnal temperature range is calculated from indi-vidual maximum and minimum temperature value andcalculated past data and present data temperature rangeclimatologies Range climatologies are featured by annualvariation The prominent feature of negative Δ values in

range is seen which shows that the difference betweenmaximum temperature and minimum temperature in a dayis decreasing Also the larger rate of increase in minimumtemperatures than maximum temperatures results in thesenegative Δ values in the diurnal temperature range

The rainfall Δ shows decrease in rainfall in present datafor the summermonthsApril andMayWell-marked negativeΔ values of about 21mm are observed in the SW monsoonmonths (JunendashAugust) An increase in rainfall activity isdetected in the SW monsoon month September and in theNE monsoon months October and November (debted tomonsoonal climate) with maximum value of +3650mm inOctober The station weather is dominated by convectivemesoscale systems during the NE monsoon Probably thisinvestigation poses the doubt about whether suchmeso-scaleweather phenomena like thunderstorm formations are onincreasing trend duringNEMonsoon and thereby an increasein Δ

32 Climatology of a Particular Observation at 0830 ISTAnalyses are carried out on different parameters collected at0830 IST Δ in dry bulb temperature wet bulb temperatureand dew point temperature obtained from the two climatolo-gies show only positive values It ranges from +060∘C in Julyto +101∘C in January for dry bulb temperature Variations inΔ among the SW monsoon months are less in general for allthe above three variables even though a maximum value inΔ is observed in dry bulb temperature The less variation ofwet bulb and dew point temperatures may be as a result ofmoisture laden atmosphere during the period which impartscorresponding variations in the moisture parameters like wetbulb temperature and dew point temperature

Station relative humidity values at 0830 IST show morethan 70 throughout the year with maximum in SW mon-soon of the order 89 Low negative values in Δ relativehumidity are detected as the air becomes drier in present datacompared to past As the air is getting dried both dew pointand the wet bulb temperatures are supposed to show negativeΔ values but the feature is not detectedThis may be inferredas the dry bulb temperature is the key parameter in elevatingΔ values of both dew point and wet bulb temperatures andthe meagre relative humidity decrease in present data thanpast data is insignificant to impartΔ changes in dewpoint andwet bulb temperatures Climatologies of RH also have showntwomaxima and twominimawhereas the secondaryminimaaround the NE monsoon is shallow in character

Significant positive Δ values are observed among the twoclimatologies in soil temperature with a low value of +099∘Cto a high of +235∘C in July and January respectively Perhapsthe Δ increase observed in the winter months January andFebruary may contribute reduction in radiational coolingwhich leads to a reduction in fog formation probability overthe station Soil temperature climatologies also have showntropical monsoonal type with two maxima and minima

Wind speed (both scalar and resultant) is decreased inpresent climatologies Mathematically resultant wind speedshall be determined as the square root of the sum of thesquares of zonal and meridional wind components Theencountered Δ values that rise to a maximum value of

Journal of Climatology 5

Table2Clim

atolog

yandΔof

maxim

umtemperaturem

inim

umtemperaturem

eandaily

temperaturem

eanrangeintemperatureand

mon

thlyrainfall

Mon

thMaxim

umtemperature∘

CMinim

umtemperature∘

CMeandaily

temperature∘

CMeanrangeintemperature∘

CMon

thlyrainfallmm

1964

ndash1993

1979ndash2008Δ

1964

ndash1993

1979ndash2008Δ

1964

ndash1993

1979ndash2008Δ

1964

ndash1993

1979ndash2008Δ

1964

ndash1993

1979ndash2008Δ

JAN

3259

3276

+017

2130

2158

+028

2694

2716

+022

1129

1117

minus012

1180

1110

minus070

FEB

3312

3332

+020

2189

2242

+053

2751

2787

+036

1124

1091minus033

1620

1640

+020

MAR

3384

3407

+023

2375

2413

+038

2878

2909

+031

1006

992

minus014

3320

3480

+160

APR

3425

3441

+016

2524

2551

+027

2976

2995

+019

905

888

minus017

10410

9940minus470

MAY

3303

3346

+043

2514

2550

+036

2912

2948

+036

797

796

minus001

1792

016580minus1340

JUN

3036

3071

+035

2399

2436

+037

2720

2753

+033

643

635

minus008

29270

27220minus2050

JUL

2938

2948

+010

2336

2379

+043

2638

2663

+025

603

568

minus035

20300

1813

0minus2170

AUG

2927

2960

+033

2339

2380

+041

2635

2670

+035

592

579

minus013

1415

012090minus2060

SEP

3034

3070

+036

2368

2400

+032

2704

2734

+030

671

667

minus004

15820

1710

0+1280

OCT

3119

3153

+034

2374

2404

+030

2750

2776

+026

753

744

minus009

20490

2414

0+3

650

NOV

3176

3177

+001

2321

2357

+036

2748

2767

+019

853

820

minus033

16680

17070

+390

DEC

3230

3256

+026

2244

2244

+000

2735

2750

+015

983

1011

+028

6660

5370minus1290

DEC

JANand

FEB

winterMAR

APR

and

MAY

sum

merJUNJULAU

Gand

SEP

SWmon

soon

OCT

NOV

NEmon

soon

6 Journal of Climatology

Table3Clim

atolog

yandΔof

dry-bu

lbtemperaturew

etbu

lbtemperaturedew

pointtem

peraturerelativeh

umidityand

soiltemperature

Mon

thDry-bulbtemperature

(0830IST)∘

CWet-bulbtemperature

(0830IST)∘

CDew

pointtem

perature

(0830IST)∘

CRe

lativeh

umidity

()

(0830IST)

Soiltemperature

(0830IST)∘

C1964

ndash1993

1979ndash2008Δ

1964

ndash1993

1979ndash2008Δ

1964

ndash1993

1979ndash2008Δ

1964

ndash1993

1979ndash2008Δ

1964

ndash1993

1979ndash2008Δ

JAN

2606

2707

+101

2233

2290

+057

2035

2069

+034

7136

6885minus251

2903

3138

+235

FEB

2677

2771

+094

2304

2355

+051

2112

2143

+031

7176

6941minus235

3041

3254

+213

MAR

2831

2920

+089

2458

2494

+036

2281

2294

+013

7255

6953

minus302

3280

3425

+145

APR

2929

3000

+071

2609

2630

+021

2471

2472

+001

7656

7361minus295

3373

3511

+138

MAY

2870

2943

+073

2612

2643

+031

2502

2517

+015

8094

7833

minus261

3246

3416

+170

JUN

2661

2733

+072

2520

2557

+037

2455

2481

+026

8851

8643minus208

2955

3099

+144

JUL

2576

2636

+060

2455

2488

+033

2395

2421

+026

8980

8803minus17

72901

3000

+099

AUG

2590

2660

+070

2460

2496

+036

2397

2422

+025

8940

8698minus242

2960

3096

+136

SEP

2662

2737

+075

2484

2521

+037

2402

2425

+023

8577

8345minus232

3110

3223

+113

OCT

2681

2759

+078

2490

2533

+043

2402

2432

+030

8501

8261minus240

3140

3245

+105

NOV

2690

2763

+073

2440

2486

+046

2327

2358

+031

8084

7935minus14

93099

3202

+103

DEC

2670

2759

+089

2335

2372

+037

2161

2174

+013

7448

7139

minus309

3052

3209

+157

DEC

JANand

FEB

winterMAR

APR

and

MAY

sum

merJUNJULAU

Gand

SEP

SWmon

soon

OCT

NOV

NEmon

soon

Journal of Climatology 7

Table4Clim

atolog

yandΔof

visib

ilitycodelow

cloud

highclo

udand

totalcloud

Mon

thVisib

ilitycode

(0830IST)

Lowclo

ud(0830IST)

Middlec

loud

(0830IST)

Highclo

ud(0830IST)

Totalcloud

(0830IST)

1964

ndash1993

1979ndash2008Δ

1964

ndash1993

1979ndash2008Δ

1964

ndash1993

1979ndash2008Δ

1964

ndash1993

1979ndash2008Δ

1964

ndash1993

1979ndash2008Δ

JAN

9679

9698

+019

055

047

minus008

081

078

minus003

118

135

+017

251

253

+002

FEB

9675

9691

+016

048

047

minus001

066

058

minus008

108

116

+008

221

217

minus004

MAR

9661

9688

+027

062

071

+009

054

037

minus017

106

121

+015

220

224

+004

APR

9677

9686

+009

125

157

+032

100

087

minus013

172

179

+007

391

394

+003

MAY

9670

9668minus002

202

208

+006

145

143minus002

156

164

+008

487

468

minus019

JUN

9626

9643

+017

286

284

minus002

231

237

+006

116

149

+033

596

590

minus006

JUL

9610

9637

+027

274

274

+000

250

282

+032

126

167

+041

596

606

+010

AUG

9641

9658

+017

227

238

+011

231

228

minus003

131

186

+055

563

568

+005

SEP

9648

9663

+015

216

215

minus001

163

162minus001

134

162

+028

493

490

minus003

OCT

9676

9670minus006

175

196

+021

207

214

+007

129

173

+044

492

506

+014

NOV

9668

9665minus003

144

155

+011

186

194

+008

126

172

+046

440

465

+025

DEC

9681

9679minus002

101

091

minus010

140

115minus025

120

140

+020

356

325

minus031

DEC

JANand

FEB

winterMAR

APR

and

MAY

sum

merJUNJULAU

Gand

SEP

SWmon

soon

OCT

NOV

NEmon

soon

8 Journal of Climatology

Table 5 Climatology and Δ of wind speed (scalar) wind speed (resultant) and wind steadiness factor

MonthWind speed (scalar)(0830 IST) msminus1

Wind speed (resultant)(0830 IST) msminus1

Wind steadiness factor(0830 IST) ()

1964ndash1993 1979ndash2008 Δ 1979ndash2008 Δ 1964ndash1993 1979ndash2008 Δ

JAN 104 075 minus029 071 033 minus038 6889 4448 minus2441FEB 107 081 minus026 073 038 minus035 6795 4736 minus2059MAR 121 100 minus021 083 056 minus027 6849 5615 minus1234APR 129 100 minus029 092 063 minus029 7146 6315 minus831MAY 145 104 minus041 114 075 minus039 7840 7244 minus596JUN 149 109 minus040 103 08 minus023 6897 7365 +468JUL 168 135 minus033 115 094 minus021 6808 6960 +152AUG 161 131 minus030 136 105 minus031 8468 7999 minus469SEP 157 110 minus047 117 081 minus036 7457 7406 minus051OCT 110 082 minus028 064 040 minus024 5869 4926 minus943NOV 097 074 minus023 049 023 minus026 5029 3117 minus1912DEC 101 075 minus026 067 037 minus030 6644 4888 minus1756DEC JAN and FEB winter MAR APR and MAY summer JUN JUL AUG and SEP SWmonsoon OCT NOV NE monsoon

the order 05ms are due to decrease in wind speeds inthe present data climatology in comparison with past dataclimatology Wind steadiness factor values at 0830 IST arecomputed as the ratio of mean resultant wind speed to meanscalar wind (average value of scalar wind speeds) expressed in and the two slot climatologies are made Wind steadinessfactor is a general meteorological technique in order to derivethe quantitative estimate of steadiness of wind direction[27] The feature of losing controllability of blowing windsfrom a specific direction (computed from wind steadiness)as the demand of a particular season might be justified asa result of heat island effect of the very fast developingurbanisation hardly 8 km East South East of the observatoryand the increasing vehicle populations and thereby drasticmodifications in at 0830 IST observations which belongto land breeze prevalence over the station in the non-SWmonsoonal months (up to a maximum of 20 decrease)Throughout the day strong seabreeze is in prevalence in theSW monsoon months Even in the SW monsoon which isdominantly associated with unidirectional wind flow slightdeteriorations in the steadiness of the wind directions haveobserved Both the above observations brought out thephenomenal changes in the steadiness of offshorewinds (landbreeze) at 0830 IST during the non-SW monsoonal monthsat greater extend and onshore wind (sea breeze) at 0830 ISTduring the SW monsoon steadiness in smaller grades Thefeature of very prominent decrease in direction steadinessin preset data to the past is clearly detected As negative Δdominance exists in the non-SW monsoon months wherechange over of land-sea breezes are so pronounced for thestation this observation may be further studied in order tocheck any possible modifications in the meso-scale meteoro-logical phenomena like sealand breeze thunderstorms dueto associated thermal and moisture environment changes

Visibility and cloud climatologies are also studied Asthese observational procedures are non-instrumental thedata is too subjective and quality observation is solely vested

260265270275280285290295300305

Tem

pera

ture

(∘C)

(a)

00040812162024

Date

Stan

dard

devi

atio

n (∘

C)

1964ndash19931979ndash2008

Jan

1 10 20 10 20M

ar 1 10 20

Apr

1 10 20M

ay 1 20

Jun

1 10 20Ju

l 1 10 20A

ug 1 10 20

Sep

1 10

Oct

1 10 20N

ov 1 10 20

Dec

1 10 20 D

ec 3

1

(b)

Figure 2 (a) Mean daily temperature climatologies in 1964ndash19931979ndash2008 and their differences along with (b) standard deviationof corresponding climatologies

on the experience of the weather observer The observationshows better visibility codes in the present data climatologyA visibility code of 96 and above signifies that a well-definedobject (like a mobile phone tower) at least 1 km far can bedistinctly differentiable Among various cloud climatologydominant positiveΔ values are existed in high clouds throughout the year whichmay be pointed out as one of the reason forsubdued albedo effect which enhances greenhouse effect and

Journal of Climatology 9

50556065707580859095

100105110115120125

Tem

pera

ture

rang

e (∘ C)

(a)

0004081216202428

Date

Stan

dard

devi

atio

n(∘

C)

1964ndash19931979ndash2008

Jan

1 10 20 10 20M

ar 1 10 20

Apr

1 10 20M

ay 1 20

Jun

1 10 20Ju

l 1 10 20A

ug 1 10 20

Sep

1 10

Oct

1 10 20N

ov 1 10 20

Dec

1 10 20 D

ec 3

1

(b)

Figure 3 (a) Mean daily temperature range climatologies in 1964ndash1993 1979ndash2008 and their differences along with (b) standarddeviation of corresponding climatologies

285290295300305310315320325330335340345350

Max

imum

tem

pera

ture

(∘C)

(a)

00040812162024

Jan

1 10 20 10 20M

ar 1 10 20

Apr 1 10 20

May

1 20Ju

n 1 10 20

Jul 1 10 20

Aug

1 10 20Se

p 1 10

Oct

1 10 20N

ov 1 10 20

Dec

1 10 20 D

ec 3

1

Date

Stan

dard

devi

atio

n(∘

C)

1964ndash19931979ndash2008

(b)

Figure 4 (a) Maximum daily temperature climatologies in 1964ndash1993 1979ndash2008 and their differences along with (b) standarddeviation of corresponding climatologies

200205210215220225230235240245250255260265

Min

imum

tem

pera

ture

(∘C)

(a)

00040812162024

Date

Stan

dard

devi

atio

n(∘

C)

1964ndash19931979ndash2008

Jan

1 10 20Fe

b 1 10 20

Mar

1 10 20A

pr 1 10 20

May

1 10 20Ju

n 1 10 20

Jul 1 10 20

Aug

1 10 20Se

p 1 10 20

Oct

1 10 20N

ov 1 10 20

Dec

1 10 20 D

ec 3

1

(b)

Figure 5 (a) Minimum daily temperature climatologies in 1964ndash1993 1979ndash2008 and their differences along with (b) standarddeviation of corresponding climatologies

0102030405060708090100

Less than zero Zero Greater than zero0

20406080

100120140160180200220240260280300320340360

Occ

urre

nces

(day

s)

Daily max tempDaily min temp

Daily mean tempRange

Occ

urre

nces

()

Figure 6 Difference statistics for 365 days between present data andpast data on daily maximum minimum mean temperatures andrange in temperature within a day

hereby surface temperature escalationThis may be the resultof number of high cloud types (Ci and Cc) are less comparedto the varieties of low and middle cloud types which enableseasy estimation for the observer while making counts onhigh clouds The increase in high cloud climatology valuesin present data may be the result of increase in air trafficresulted contrails over the region which results an increasein cirrus cloud formations due to tropical dynamics unlike

10 Journal of Climatology

271273275277279281283285

Mea

n te

mpe

ratu

re (∘

C)

101214161820

Stan

dard

devi

atio

n(∘

C)

dydx = 0013

r = 0891

(a)

minus10minus08minus06minus04minus02

00204060810

Tem

pera

ture

anom

aly

(∘C)

1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010(year)

dydx = 0013

r = 0891

Mean temperature11pt soothed line

Fitted lineStandard deviation

(b)

Figure 7 (a) Yearly mean temperature along with standard devia-tion and (b) anomaly

308312316320324328

1517192123252729dydx = 0012

r = 0725

Max

imum

tem

pera

ture

(∘C)

Stan

dard

devi

atio

n(∘

C)

(a)

minus12minus08minus04

0040812

1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010(year)

dydx = 0012

r = 0725

Tem

pera

ture

anom

aly

(∘C)

Standard deviationFitted line

11pt soothed lineMaximum temperature

(b)

Figure 8 (a) Yearly mean maximum temperature along withstandard deviation and (b) anomaly

microphysical processes in mid-latitudes as in Minnis et al[28] Zerefos et al [29] Eleftheratos et al [30] have studiedthe variability of cirrus clouds over the tropics governedby the activity of El Nino Southern Oscillation the QuasiBiennial Oscillation and solar activity Possible radiationbudget alterations modifications at the time of occurrenceof minimum and maximum temperatures are to be criticallyexamined as a part of future investigations Prominent twomaxima (secondarymaximum is very shallower compared to

dydx = 0014

r = 0952

226230234238242246

1012141618202224

Min

imum

tem

pera

ture

(∘C)

Stan

dard

dev

iatio

n(∘

C)

(a)

minus12minus08minus04

0040812

1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

dydx = 0014

r = 0952

(year)

Standard deviationFitted line11pt soothed lineMinimum temperature

Tem

pera

ture

anom

aly

(∘C)

(b)

Figure 9 (a) Yearly mean minimum temperature along withstandard deviation and (b) anomaly

dydx = 0002

r = 0190

1620242832

Stan

dard

dev

iatio

n

6670747882869094

Tem

pera

ture

rang

e(∘ C)

(a)

minus12minus08minus04

0040812

dydx = 0002

r = 0190

1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

Tem

pera

ture

rang

ean

omal

y(∘

C)

(year)

Temperature range11pt soothed line

Fitted lineStandard deviation

(b)

Figure 10 (a) Yearly mean temperature range along with standarddeviation and (b) anomaly

the primary) and two minima were seen in middle high andtotal cloud climatology

33 Mean Daily Climatology in Temperature Mean of dailymaximum minimum mean and range in temperaturebetween daily maximum and minimum temperatures arecomputed and depicted for the 365 days in a year (Figures2 3 4 and 5) along with their standard deviations Theincrease inmean daily values in present data temperatures arequite obvious and standard deviation values are fallen within

Journal of Climatology 11

(year)

123456789

101112

(mon

th)

1964 1966 1968 1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008

No data

20181614121008060402minus00minus02minus04minus06minus08minus10minus12minus14minus16minus18minus20

(∘C)

Figure 11 Maximum temperature anomaly

27∘C for all the four mean daily climatologies A differencestatistics for 365 days between present data to past data ismade and is shown in Figure 6 Out of 365 days more than80 mean daily maximum minimum and mean tempera-tures are distributed as greater than zero occurrences in thedifference statistics An elevated frequency of occurrence ofmore than 65 under less than zero class is a concrete featurewhich implies that the range amongmaximumandminimumtemperature is alarmingly diminishing

34 Interannual Variability Inter annual variability has crit-ically examined for annual mean of minimum maximumand mean temperatures annual rainfall in the SW and NEmonsoon over the station and for theKerala State and averageannual surface pressure in the SW and NE monsoons forthe station Each inter annual variability data has undergonean 11 year moving average with end point extrapolation tillthe raw data availability to bring out long term trend andthe trend line also has shown in each inter annual variabilityfigures similar to Krishnakumar et al [22] for the interannualvariability of rainfall over Kerala Interpolated values areobtained for each year from the trend and such a data setobtained has been subjected to statistical significant testinterpolated data has not taken for a particular year if theraw data point is missing for the corresponding year Thismethod has enabled no reduction in the degrees of freedom(df ) To confirm the statistical significance on various 11year moving averaged data and also to assess the strength ofsample correlation coefficient (119903) linear regression t-test werecarried out and the results are presented (Table 6) Generallystrong and significant linear trend variations are observedEven though linear trends of maximum and minimumtemperatures have shown strong and significant statisticaltrends the derived variable-temperature range has resulteda weak and insignificant test statisticThis may be statisticallyinferred as a variable derived out of two variables whichfavours strong and significant test statistic separately need notshow the same test static of strong and significant

341 Interannual Variability in Temperature To assess theinterannual variability with temperature annual mean min-imum mean maximum and mean of mean temperaturesare found out for each year from 1964 to 2008 Also to

ascertain deviation from the normal each yearly mean valueis deducted from the mean of the entire values available forpresent data and thereby extracted the anomaly in tempera-ture Mean and standard deviation of daily mean maximumminimum and daily temperature range are computed for ayear and depicted in Figures 7 8 9 and 10 The fitted lineartrend line slope (dydx) as well as correlation coefficient (119903)values are annotated in graphs It is seen that from bothmeandaily temperature as well as from the maximum temperaturean abrupt prominent shift or a discernible upward trendis occurred after 1976 may be like the ldquoclimate shiftrdquo asstated by Trenberth [24] The 45 year rate in mean dailymaximum andminimum are obtained as +0585∘C +0540∘Cand +0630∘C respectively or with decadal rates of (+013 plusmn001)∘C (+012 plusmn 002)∘C and (+014 plusmn 00)∘C accordingly Inthe obtained value for the global mean surface temperatureas a whole (+007 plusmn 002)∘C surface temperatures over landhave risen at about double the ocean rate after 1979 (morethan (+027 plusmn 006)∘C per decade versus (+013 plusmn 004)∘Cper decade) as per the Trenberth et al [31] From 1950 to2004 the global land trend in diurnal temperature range wasextracted as negative (minus007∘C per decade) although tropicalareas are still underrepresented [31] Kumar et al [32] showedtrends of increase in diurnal temperature range significantincrease in annual maximum temperature and practicallytrendless annual minimum temperature over India in thelast century Our inter annual variability results coincidemostly with former studied data period which supports thedecrease of diurnal temperature range and the same is veryvivid from Figure 6 discussed earlier It infers that for thistropical coastal station the obtained decadal rate of (+0130plusmn001)∘C which is in agreement with global ocean rate maybe due to the station being coastal in origin The errorvalue reduction by plusmn003∘C for TERLS can be due to morestabilized single station data Also rate of increase in trend forminimum temperature is high in comparison to maximumtemperature A decreasing trend in maximum temperature isnoticed after 2005 with decreasing standard deviation valuesThis observation might be correct as a result of shifting theobservatory since 1964 to hardly 30m towards north in 2005were smooth and free sea-breeze flow which enables abruptreach of maximum temperature in the diurnal course aroundthe time of sea breeze onset The feature of attaining themaximum temperature of the day around the time of onset of

12 Journal of Climatology

Table 6 Linear trends of 11 year moving averaged data on various inter-annual variability Level of significance was choosen at 005 toread out critical 119905 values (119905

119888

) corresponding to the degree of freedom (df ) If 119903 gt 05 strong 119903 lt 05 weak 119905 gt 119905119888

significant and 119905 lt 119905119888

notsignificant

No Interannualvariability in 119903

Slope (119889119910119889119909) plusmnerror Calculated 119905 df Comments Data missing

1 Mean temperature 0891 0013 plusmn 0001 1208154 38Strong and

significant (Figures7(a) and 7(b))

1974 1975 19761982 and 1992

2 Mean maximumtemperature 0725 00121 plusmn 0002 650392 38

Strong andsignificant

(Figures 8(a) and 8(b)

1974 1975 19761982 and 1992

3 Mean minimumtemperature 0952 0014 plusmn 0000 1929677 38

Strong andsignificant

(Figures 9(a) and9(b))

1974 1975 19761982 and 1992

4 Mean temperaturerange minus0190 minus0002 plusmn 0002 minus119078 38

Weak and notsignificant

(Figure 10(a))

1974 1975 19761982 and 1992

5South West

monsoon rainfall(Thumba)

minus0477 minus2145 plusmn 0616 minus3483 41 Weak and significant(Figure 14) 1964 1998

6North East

monsoon rainfall(Thumba)

0848 3928 plusmn 0393 10000 39 Strong and significant(Figure 15)

1964 1977 1992and 1998

7South West

monsoon rainfall(Kerala)

minus0721 minus6149 plusmn 0934 minus6587 40 Strong and significant(Figure 16)

1964 2007 and2008

8North East

monsoon rainfall(Kerala)

0737 3430 plusmn 0491 6986 41 Strong and significant(Figure 17) 1964 2008

9South West

monsoon surfacepressure

0445 0006 plusmn 0002 2899 34 Weak and significant(Figure 18) 1964 to 1972

10North East

monsoon surfacepressure

minus0616 0010 plusmn 0002 minus4555 34 Strong and significant(Figure 19) 1964 to 1972

123456789

101112

(mon

th)

1964 1966 1968 1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008

No data

20181614121008060402minus00minus02minus04minus06minus08minus10minus12minus14minus16minus18minus20

(∘C)

Figure 12 Minimum temperature anomaly

sea breeze is known [33] As the station is of coastal in originthe occurrence of daily maximum temperature is very muchlinked to the setting and strong establishment of sea breezefront towards the land areas

Mean monthly anomaly structures in minimum max-imum and mean temperatures are presented in time sec-tion contour diagrams (Figures 11 12 and 13) All contour

depictions show well-marked temperature increase duringthe course of years and are so pronounced after 1976

342 Interannual Variability in SW and NE Monsoon Rain-fall and Surface Pressure Interannual variability in rainfalland surface pressure particularly for SW monsoon and NEmonsoon are studied A decrease in trend in SW monsoon

Journal of Climatology 13

123456789

101112

(mon

th)

(year)1964 1966 1968 1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008

No data

14121008060402

(∘C)

minus00minus02minus04minus06minus08minus10minus12minus14minus16minus18minus20minus22

Figure 13 Mean temperature anomaly

300400500600700800900

100011001200130014001500

1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010(year)

Rain

fall

(mm

)

dydx = minus2145

r = minus0477

Figure 14 South West monsoon rainfall over Thumba

(year)

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1000

1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

Rain

fall

(mm

)

dydx = 3928

r = 0848

Figure 15 North East monsoon rainfall over Thumba

and an increase in trend in NE monsoons are the observedfeatures over the station with decadal variability of (minus215 plusmn62)mm and (+393 plusmn 39)mm respectively (Figures 14and 15) Analysis by considering initial rainfall values (atthe beginning year on the fitted straight line) of SouthWest monsoon North East monsoon corresponding slopeof them as 817822mm 296535mm minus215mmdecade and

(year)

1000

1250

1500

1750

2000

2250

2500

2750

3000

3250

1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

Rain

fall

(mm

)

dydx = minus6149r = minus0721

Figure 16 South West monsoon rainfall over Kerala

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1000

1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010(year)

Rain

fall

(mm

)

r = 0737

dydx = 3430

Figure 17 North East monsoon rainfall over Kerala

393mmdecade respectively shows the likelihood exceedof North East monsoon rainfall over South West monsoonover this region after the year 2050 if the current trendcontinues Similar analyses are carried out on the slot 1965to 2007 for the Kerala meteorological subdivision from thelongest instrumental rainfall series of the Indian regions(1813ndash2006) ([34] httpwwwtropmetresin) The actualrainfall amount over Kerala during 2007 is obtained from the

14 Journal of Climatology

10070100751008010085100901009510100

Pres

sure

(mb)

dydx = 00061r = 04452

(a)

101214161820

1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008100012501500175020002250

Standard deviationNumber of observations

(year)

Stan

dard

de

viat

ion

(mb)

No

of o

bser

vatio

ns

(b)

Figure 18 (a) Interannual variability in surface pressure for SouthWest monsoon season along with (b) standard deviation andnumber of observations

100801008510090100951010010105101101011510120

Pres

sure

(mb)

dydx = minus0010r = minus0616

(a)

10

15

20

25

1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008500700900110013001500

Standard deviationNo of observations

(year)

Stan

dard

de

viat

ion

(mb)

No

of o

bser

vatio

ns

(b)

Figure 19 (a) Interannual variability in surface pressure for NorthEastmonsoon season alongwith (b) standard deviation and numberof observations

quarterly journal theMAUSAM (July 2008 andOctober 2008issues) Decadal variations show a decreasing trend in SWmonsoon by (minus615 plusmn 93)mm and increasing trend in NEmonsoon by (+340 plusmn 49)mm (Figures 16 and 17)

Interannual variability in surface pressure was derivedand depicted for SW monsoon (Figure 18) and NE monsoon(Figure 19) For this every hourly data available since 1973

was subjected to mean monthly value computation Numberof observations available ranges from 1100 to 2245 in SWmonsoon and 500 to 1495 in NE monsoon respectivelyand provided along with the standard deviation values inthe above figures Since atmospheric pressure is a highlystabilized property over a region for a particular season thedecadal trend variability observed is (+006 plusmn 002)mb and(ndash010plusmn002)mb for SWmonsoon andNEmonsoon respec-tively The positive (increase) and negative (decrease) inter-annual trends observed in SW monsoon and NE monsoonrespectively might have contributed possible implications inthe development of associated synoptic scale meteorologicalsystems (position and orientation of troughsridges and lowpressures) and thereby corresponding decrease and increasein SWmonsoon and NE monsoon rainfall trends

4 Conclusion

Long-term surface meteorological records from TERLS werecollected and analysed to study the long-term changes inoverall climatology climatology pertained to a particulartime of observation mean daily climatology in temperatureinterannual variability in temperature interannual variabilityin SW andNEmonsoon rainfall andmeanmonthly anomalystructure in temperature Results on various analyses showstrong and vivid features contributed by climate change Thesalient features observed contributed by climate change are asfollows

(1) All the temperatures show increase in their behaviourwith slight decrease in RH between the presentclimatology and past climatology

(2) Steadiness of wind decreases especially in non-SWmonsoon months which gives an indirect signatureof possible modifications in meso-scale systems

(3) High cloud climatology increases and thereby proba-ble modifications in radiation budget time of occur-rence of maximum and minimum temperatures

(4) Daily statistics for 365 days show more than 80exceedance in present climatology in comparison topast in minimum maximum andmean temperature

(5) Interannual variability analysis in mean temperaturefor this tropical coastal station shows +13∘C100 yearswhich is same as that of global ocean rate

(6) Observed interannual rainfall variability in SWmon-soon and North East monsoon shows decrease intrend by ndash2145mmdecade and increase in trendby +393mmdecade respectively Prognosis on thisobservation points out the likelihood exceedance ofNE monsoon rainfall over the South West monsoonafter the year 2050 for the station But it is prejudicialto infer that the rainfall increase in NE monsoon cancompensate the forecasted decrease in SWmonsoonsince NE monsoon is mostly of heavy rainfall innature as a result of meso-scale convective systemsSuch rainfall runoff is very fast than the slow waterinfiltration feature in association with SW monsoon

Journal of Climatology 15

rainfall which is essential for irrigation and agricul-tural needs

(7) Decadal variability in surface pressure has shown+006mb and minus010mb for SW monsoon and NEmonsoon respectively

The imprints due to climate change on various meteoro-logical parameters over this coastal station proved that theregion also faces vulnerable situation due to the phenom-ena and therefore necessary engineeringmethodssocioeco-nomic steps are to be undertaken

Acknowledgments

The availability of this unique data for a continuous periodof 45 years is the outcome of concerted and whole heartedefforts put in by the staffs of TERLSIndia MeteorologicalDepartment It is a pleasure to acknowledge with esteemedgratitude the team that worked since 1963 at the TERLSThumba whose efforts have yielded the voluminous uniquedata bank which is available for investigations The authorsare extremely grateful to Dr K Krishnamoorthy DirectorSpace Physics Laboratory VSSC and the reviewers for theirvaluable comments that helped to improve the paper to thefinal form

References

[1] N Oreskes ldquoThe scientific consensus on climatic changerdquoScience vol 306 p 1686 2004

[2] H Ayyar Effect of Pollution on Weather Science ReporterCouncil of Scientific and Industrial Research (CSIR) 1973

[3] K Rupa Kumar A K Sahai K Krishna Kumar et al ldquoHigh-resolution climate change scenarios for India for the 21stcenturyrdquo Current Science vol 90 no 3 pp 334ndash345 2006

[4] P Brohan J J Kennedy I Harris S F B Tett and P DJones ldquoUncertainty estimates in regional and global observedtemperature changes a new data set from 1850rdquo Journal ofGeophysical Research D vol 111 no 12 Article IDD12106 2006

[5] T M Smith and R W Reynolds ldquoA global merged land-air-sea surface temperature reconstruction based on historicalobservations (1880ndash1997)rdquo Journal of Climate vol 18 no 12 pp2021ndash2036 2005

[6] K M Lugina P Y Groisman K Y Vinnikov V V Koknaevaand N A Speranskaya ldquoMonthly surface air temperature timeseries area-averaged over the 30-degree latitudinal belts of theglobe 1881-2004 In Trends a compendium of data on globalchangerdquo Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Centre OakRidge National Laboratory US Department of Energy OakRidge TennUSA 2005 httpcdiacesdornlgovtrendstempluginaluginahtml

[7] J Hansen R RuedyM Sato et al ldquoA closer look atUnited Statesand global surface temperature changerdquo Journal of GeophysicalResearch D vol 106 no 20 pp 23947ndash23963 2001

[8] S Solomon D Quin M Manning et al ldquoContribution ofworking group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the IPCCrdquoTech Rep IPCC-AR4 2007

[9] R C Balling Jr and S W Brazel ldquoRecent changes in PhoenixArizona summertime diurnal precipitation patternsrdquo Theoreti-cal and Applied Climatology vol 38 no 1 pp 50ndash54 1987

[10] R Bornstein and Q Lin ldquoUrban heat islands and summertimeconvective thunderstorms in Atlanta three case studiesrdquoAtmo-spheric Environment vol 34 no 3 pp 507ndash516 2000

[11] P G Dixon and T L Mote ldquoPatterns and cause of Atlandarsquosurban heat island-initiated precipitationrdquo Journal of AppliedMeteorology vol 42 pp 1273ndash1284 2003

[12] F Fujibe ldquoLong-term surface wind changes in the Tokyometropolitan area in the afternoon of sunny days in the warmseasonrdquo Journal of the Meteorological Society of Japan vol 81no 1 pp 141ndash149 2003

[13] T Inoue and F Kimura ldquoUrban effects on low-level cloudsaround the Tokyo metropolitan area on clear summer daysrdquoGeophysical Research Letters vol 31 no 5 Article ID L051032004

[14] JM ShepherdH Pierce andA J Negri ldquoRainfallmodificationby major urban areas observations from spaceborne rain radaron the TRMM satelliterdquo Journal of Applied Meteorology vol 41no 7 pp 689ndash701 2002

[15] C Price SMichaelides S Pashiardis and P Alpert ldquoLong termchanges in diurnal temperature range in Cyprusrdquo AtmosphericResearch vol 51 no 2 pp 85ndash98 1999

[16] H N Singh S D Patil S D Bansod and N Singh ldquoSeasonalvariability in mean sea level pressure extremes over the Indianregionrdquo Atmospheric Research vol 101 no 1-2 pp 102ndash111 2011

[17] J Kingwell J Shimizu K Narita H Kawabata and I ShimizuldquoWeather factors affecting rocket operations a review and casehistoryrdquo American Meteorological Society vol 72 pp 778ndash7931991

[18] R E Turner and C K Hill Terrestrial Environment (Climatic)Guidlines for Use in Aerospace Vehicle Development 1982 Revi-sion Technical Memor 82473 National Aeronautics and SpaceAdministration 1982

[19] ldquoSpace Research in Indiardquo in Proceedings of the 38th COSPARMeeting pp 199ndash204 Bremen Germeny 2010

[20] P V Joseph and A Simon ldquoWeakening trend of the southwestmonsoon current through peninsular India from 1950 to thepresentrdquo Current Science vol 89 no 4 pp 687ndash694 2005

[21] S K Dash J R Kumar and M S Shekhar ldquoOn the decreasingfrequency of monsoon depressions over the Indian regionrdquoCurrent Science vol 86 no 10 pp 1404ndash1411 2004

[22] K N Krishnakumar G S L H V Prasada Rao and C SGopakumar ldquoRainfall trends in twentieth century over KeralaIndiardquo Atmospheric Environment vol 43 no 11 pp 1940ndash19442009

[23] National Council of Educational Research and Training(NCERT) India Text book of physicsmdashpart I for class 11 2006

[24] K E Trenberth ldquoRecent observed interdecadal climate changesin the Northern Hemisphererdquo Bulletin of the American Meteo-rological Society vol 71 no 7 pp 988ndash993 1990

[25] T K Karl H F Diaz and G Kukla ldquoUrbanization its detectionand effect in the United States climate recordrdquo Journal ofClimate vol 1 pp 1099ndash1123 1988

[26] M Rebetez andM Beniston ldquoChanges in sunshine duration arecorrelated with changes in daily temperature range this centuryan analysis of Swiss climatological datardquo Geophysical ResearchLetters vol 25 no 19 pp 3611ndash3613 1998

[27] K V S Namboodiri P K Dileep and K Mammen ldquoWindsteadiness up to 35 km and its variability before the SouthWestMonsoon onset and the withdrawalrdquoMausam vol 63 pp 275ndash282 2012

16 Journal of Climatology

[28] PMinnis A J Kirk P Rabindra and P Dung ldquoContrails cirrustrends and climaterdquo Journal of Climate vol 17 pp 1671ndash16852004

[29] C S Zerefos K Eleftheratos D S Balis P Zanis G Tselioudisand C Meleti ldquoEvidence of impact of aviation on cirrus cloudformationrdquoAtmospheric Chemistry and Physics vol 3 no 5 pp1633ndash1644 2003

[30] K Eleftheratos C S Zerefos C Varotsos and I KapsomenakisldquoInterannual variability of cirrus clouds in the tropics in elnino southern oscillation (ENSO) regions based on interna-tional satellite cloud climatology project (ISCCP) satellite datardquoInternational Journal of Remote Sensing vol 32 no 21 pp 6395ndash6405 2011

[31] K E Trenberth P D Jones and P Ambenje ldquoObservationssurface and climate changerdquo in Climate Change 2007 ThePhysical Science Basis Contribution of working group I to theFourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel onClimate Change S Solomon D Qin and M Manning EdsCambridge University Press Cambridge UK 2007

[32] K R Kumar K K Kumar and G B Pant ldquoDiurnal asymmetryof surface temperature trends over Indiardquo Geophysical ResearchLetters vol 21 no 8 pp 677ndash680 1994

[33] T R Sivaramakrishnan and P S Prakash Rao ldquoSea-breezefeatures over Sriharikota Indiardquo Meteorological Magazine vol118 no 1400 pp 64ndash67 1989

[34] NA SontakkeN Singh andHN Singh ldquoInstrumental periodrainfall series of the Indian region (AD 1813ndash2005) revisedreconstruction update and analysisrdquoHolocene vol 18 no 7 pp1055ndash1066 2008

Submit your manuscripts athttpwwwhindawicom

Forestry ResearchInternational Journal of

Hindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

Environmental and Public Health

Journal of

Hindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

Hindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

EcosystemsJournal of

Hindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

MeteorologyAdvances in

EcologyInternational Journal of

Hindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

Marine BiologyJournal of

Hindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

Hindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom

Applied ampEnvironmentalSoil Science

Volume 2014

Advances in

Hindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

Environmental Chemistry

Atmospheric SciencesInternational Journal of

Hindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

Hindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

Waste ManagementJournal of

Hindawi Publishing Corporation httpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

International Journal of

Geophysics

Hindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

Geological ResearchJournal of

EarthquakesJournal of

Hindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

BiodiversityInternational Journal of

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ScientificaHindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

OceanographyInternational Journal of

Hindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

The Scientific World JournalHindawi Publishing Corporation httpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

Journal of Computational Environmental SciencesHindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

Hindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

ClimatologyJournal of

Page 5: Research Article Climatic Variation at Thumba Equatorial Rocket Launching Station, India · 2016. 8. 22. · Research Article Climatic Variation at Thumba Equatorial Rocket Launching

Journal of Climatology 5

Table2Clim

atolog

yandΔof

maxim

umtemperaturem

inim

umtemperaturem

eandaily

temperaturem

eanrangeintemperatureand

mon

thlyrainfall

Mon

thMaxim

umtemperature∘

CMinim

umtemperature∘

CMeandaily

temperature∘

CMeanrangeintemperature∘

CMon

thlyrainfallmm

1964

ndash1993

1979ndash2008Δ

1964

ndash1993

1979ndash2008Δ

1964

ndash1993

1979ndash2008Δ

1964

ndash1993

1979ndash2008Δ

1964

ndash1993

1979ndash2008Δ

JAN

3259

3276

+017

2130

2158

+028

2694

2716

+022

1129

1117

minus012

1180

1110

minus070

FEB

3312

3332

+020

2189

2242

+053

2751

2787

+036

1124

1091minus033

1620

1640

+020

MAR

3384

3407

+023

2375

2413

+038

2878

2909

+031

1006

992

minus014

3320

3480

+160

APR

3425

3441

+016

2524

2551

+027

2976

2995

+019

905

888

minus017

10410

9940minus470

MAY

3303

3346

+043

2514

2550

+036

2912

2948

+036

797

796

minus001

1792

016580minus1340

JUN

3036

3071

+035

2399

2436

+037

2720

2753

+033

643

635

minus008

29270

27220minus2050

JUL

2938

2948

+010

2336

2379

+043

2638

2663

+025

603

568

minus035

20300

1813

0minus2170

AUG

2927

2960

+033

2339

2380

+041

2635

2670

+035

592

579

minus013

1415

012090minus2060

SEP

3034

3070

+036

2368

2400

+032

2704

2734

+030

671

667

minus004

15820

1710

0+1280

OCT

3119

3153

+034

2374

2404

+030

2750

2776

+026

753

744

minus009

20490

2414

0+3

650

NOV

3176

3177

+001

2321

2357

+036

2748

2767

+019

853

820

minus033

16680

17070

+390

DEC

3230

3256

+026

2244

2244

+000

2735

2750

+015

983

1011

+028

6660

5370minus1290

DEC

JANand

FEB

winterMAR

APR

and

MAY

sum

merJUNJULAU

Gand

SEP

SWmon

soon

OCT

NOV

NEmon

soon

6 Journal of Climatology

Table3Clim

atolog

yandΔof

dry-bu

lbtemperaturew

etbu

lbtemperaturedew

pointtem

peraturerelativeh

umidityand

soiltemperature

Mon

thDry-bulbtemperature

(0830IST)∘

CWet-bulbtemperature

(0830IST)∘

CDew

pointtem

perature

(0830IST)∘

CRe

lativeh

umidity

()

(0830IST)

Soiltemperature

(0830IST)∘

C1964

ndash1993

1979ndash2008Δ

1964

ndash1993

1979ndash2008Δ

1964

ndash1993

1979ndash2008Δ

1964

ndash1993

1979ndash2008Δ

1964

ndash1993

1979ndash2008Δ

JAN

2606

2707

+101

2233

2290

+057

2035

2069

+034

7136

6885minus251

2903

3138

+235

FEB

2677

2771

+094

2304

2355

+051

2112

2143

+031

7176

6941minus235

3041

3254

+213

MAR

2831

2920

+089

2458

2494

+036

2281

2294

+013

7255

6953

minus302

3280

3425

+145

APR

2929

3000

+071

2609

2630

+021

2471

2472

+001

7656

7361minus295

3373

3511

+138

MAY

2870

2943

+073

2612

2643

+031

2502

2517

+015

8094

7833

minus261

3246

3416

+170

JUN

2661

2733

+072

2520

2557

+037

2455

2481

+026

8851

8643minus208

2955

3099

+144

JUL

2576

2636

+060

2455

2488

+033

2395

2421

+026

8980

8803minus17

72901

3000

+099

AUG

2590

2660

+070

2460

2496

+036

2397

2422

+025

8940

8698minus242

2960

3096

+136

SEP

2662

2737

+075

2484

2521

+037

2402

2425

+023

8577

8345minus232

3110

3223

+113

OCT

2681

2759

+078

2490

2533

+043

2402

2432

+030

8501

8261minus240

3140

3245

+105

NOV

2690

2763

+073

2440

2486

+046

2327

2358

+031

8084

7935minus14

93099

3202

+103

DEC

2670

2759

+089

2335

2372

+037

2161

2174

+013

7448

7139

minus309

3052

3209

+157

DEC

JANand

FEB

winterMAR

APR

and

MAY

sum

merJUNJULAU

Gand

SEP

SWmon

soon

OCT

NOV

NEmon

soon

Journal of Climatology 7

Table4Clim

atolog

yandΔof

visib

ilitycodelow

cloud

highclo

udand

totalcloud

Mon

thVisib

ilitycode

(0830IST)

Lowclo

ud(0830IST)

Middlec

loud

(0830IST)

Highclo

ud(0830IST)

Totalcloud

(0830IST)

1964

ndash1993

1979ndash2008Δ

1964

ndash1993

1979ndash2008Δ

1964

ndash1993

1979ndash2008Δ

1964

ndash1993

1979ndash2008Δ

1964

ndash1993

1979ndash2008Δ

JAN

9679

9698

+019

055

047

minus008

081

078

minus003

118

135

+017

251

253

+002

FEB

9675

9691

+016

048

047

minus001

066

058

minus008

108

116

+008

221

217

minus004

MAR

9661

9688

+027

062

071

+009

054

037

minus017

106

121

+015

220

224

+004

APR

9677

9686

+009

125

157

+032

100

087

minus013

172

179

+007

391

394

+003

MAY

9670

9668minus002

202

208

+006

145

143minus002

156

164

+008

487

468

minus019

JUN

9626

9643

+017

286

284

minus002

231

237

+006

116

149

+033

596

590

minus006

JUL

9610

9637

+027

274

274

+000

250

282

+032

126

167

+041

596

606

+010

AUG

9641

9658

+017

227

238

+011

231

228

minus003

131

186

+055

563

568

+005

SEP

9648

9663

+015

216

215

minus001

163

162minus001

134

162

+028

493

490

minus003

OCT

9676

9670minus006

175

196

+021

207

214

+007

129

173

+044

492

506

+014

NOV

9668

9665minus003

144

155

+011

186

194

+008

126

172

+046

440

465

+025

DEC

9681

9679minus002

101

091

minus010

140

115minus025

120

140

+020

356

325

minus031

DEC

JANand

FEB

winterMAR

APR

and

MAY

sum

merJUNJULAU

Gand

SEP

SWmon

soon

OCT

NOV

NEmon

soon

8 Journal of Climatology

Table 5 Climatology and Δ of wind speed (scalar) wind speed (resultant) and wind steadiness factor

MonthWind speed (scalar)(0830 IST) msminus1

Wind speed (resultant)(0830 IST) msminus1

Wind steadiness factor(0830 IST) ()

1964ndash1993 1979ndash2008 Δ 1979ndash2008 Δ 1964ndash1993 1979ndash2008 Δ

JAN 104 075 minus029 071 033 minus038 6889 4448 minus2441FEB 107 081 minus026 073 038 minus035 6795 4736 minus2059MAR 121 100 minus021 083 056 minus027 6849 5615 minus1234APR 129 100 minus029 092 063 minus029 7146 6315 minus831MAY 145 104 minus041 114 075 minus039 7840 7244 minus596JUN 149 109 minus040 103 08 minus023 6897 7365 +468JUL 168 135 minus033 115 094 minus021 6808 6960 +152AUG 161 131 minus030 136 105 minus031 8468 7999 minus469SEP 157 110 minus047 117 081 minus036 7457 7406 minus051OCT 110 082 minus028 064 040 minus024 5869 4926 minus943NOV 097 074 minus023 049 023 minus026 5029 3117 minus1912DEC 101 075 minus026 067 037 minus030 6644 4888 minus1756DEC JAN and FEB winter MAR APR and MAY summer JUN JUL AUG and SEP SWmonsoon OCT NOV NE monsoon

the order 05ms are due to decrease in wind speeds inthe present data climatology in comparison with past dataclimatology Wind steadiness factor values at 0830 IST arecomputed as the ratio of mean resultant wind speed to meanscalar wind (average value of scalar wind speeds) expressed in and the two slot climatologies are made Wind steadinessfactor is a general meteorological technique in order to derivethe quantitative estimate of steadiness of wind direction[27] The feature of losing controllability of blowing windsfrom a specific direction (computed from wind steadiness)as the demand of a particular season might be justified asa result of heat island effect of the very fast developingurbanisation hardly 8 km East South East of the observatoryand the increasing vehicle populations and thereby drasticmodifications in at 0830 IST observations which belongto land breeze prevalence over the station in the non-SWmonsoonal months (up to a maximum of 20 decrease)Throughout the day strong seabreeze is in prevalence in theSW monsoon months Even in the SW monsoon which isdominantly associated with unidirectional wind flow slightdeteriorations in the steadiness of the wind directions haveobserved Both the above observations brought out thephenomenal changes in the steadiness of offshorewinds (landbreeze) at 0830 IST during the non-SW monsoonal monthsat greater extend and onshore wind (sea breeze) at 0830 ISTduring the SW monsoon steadiness in smaller grades Thefeature of very prominent decrease in direction steadinessin preset data to the past is clearly detected As negative Δdominance exists in the non-SW monsoon months wherechange over of land-sea breezes are so pronounced for thestation this observation may be further studied in order tocheck any possible modifications in the meso-scale meteoro-logical phenomena like sealand breeze thunderstorms dueto associated thermal and moisture environment changes

Visibility and cloud climatologies are also studied Asthese observational procedures are non-instrumental thedata is too subjective and quality observation is solely vested

260265270275280285290295300305

Tem

pera

ture

(∘C)

(a)

00040812162024

Date

Stan

dard

devi

atio

n (∘

C)

1964ndash19931979ndash2008

Jan

1 10 20 10 20M

ar 1 10 20

Apr

1 10 20M

ay 1 20

Jun

1 10 20Ju

l 1 10 20A

ug 1 10 20

Sep

1 10

Oct

1 10 20N

ov 1 10 20

Dec

1 10 20 D

ec 3

1

(b)

Figure 2 (a) Mean daily temperature climatologies in 1964ndash19931979ndash2008 and their differences along with (b) standard deviationof corresponding climatologies

on the experience of the weather observer The observationshows better visibility codes in the present data climatologyA visibility code of 96 and above signifies that a well-definedobject (like a mobile phone tower) at least 1 km far can bedistinctly differentiable Among various cloud climatologydominant positiveΔ values are existed in high clouds throughout the year whichmay be pointed out as one of the reason forsubdued albedo effect which enhances greenhouse effect and

Journal of Climatology 9

50556065707580859095

100105110115120125

Tem

pera

ture

rang

e (∘ C)

(a)

0004081216202428

Date

Stan

dard

devi

atio

n(∘

C)

1964ndash19931979ndash2008

Jan

1 10 20 10 20M

ar 1 10 20

Apr

1 10 20M

ay 1 20

Jun

1 10 20Ju

l 1 10 20A

ug 1 10 20

Sep

1 10

Oct

1 10 20N

ov 1 10 20

Dec

1 10 20 D

ec 3

1

(b)

Figure 3 (a) Mean daily temperature range climatologies in 1964ndash1993 1979ndash2008 and their differences along with (b) standarddeviation of corresponding climatologies

285290295300305310315320325330335340345350

Max

imum

tem

pera

ture

(∘C)

(a)

00040812162024

Jan

1 10 20 10 20M

ar 1 10 20

Apr 1 10 20

May

1 20Ju

n 1 10 20

Jul 1 10 20

Aug

1 10 20Se

p 1 10

Oct

1 10 20N

ov 1 10 20

Dec

1 10 20 D

ec 3

1

Date

Stan

dard

devi

atio

n(∘

C)

1964ndash19931979ndash2008

(b)

Figure 4 (a) Maximum daily temperature climatologies in 1964ndash1993 1979ndash2008 and their differences along with (b) standarddeviation of corresponding climatologies

200205210215220225230235240245250255260265

Min

imum

tem

pera

ture

(∘C)

(a)

00040812162024

Date

Stan

dard

devi

atio

n(∘

C)

1964ndash19931979ndash2008

Jan

1 10 20Fe

b 1 10 20

Mar

1 10 20A

pr 1 10 20

May

1 10 20Ju

n 1 10 20

Jul 1 10 20

Aug

1 10 20Se

p 1 10 20

Oct

1 10 20N

ov 1 10 20

Dec

1 10 20 D

ec 3

1

(b)

Figure 5 (a) Minimum daily temperature climatologies in 1964ndash1993 1979ndash2008 and their differences along with (b) standarddeviation of corresponding climatologies

0102030405060708090100

Less than zero Zero Greater than zero0

20406080

100120140160180200220240260280300320340360

Occ

urre

nces

(day

s)

Daily max tempDaily min temp

Daily mean tempRange

Occ

urre

nces

()

Figure 6 Difference statistics for 365 days between present data andpast data on daily maximum minimum mean temperatures andrange in temperature within a day

hereby surface temperature escalationThis may be the resultof number of high cloud types (Ci and Cc) are less comparedto the varieties of low and middle cloud types which enableseasy estimation for the observer while making counts onhigh clouds The increase in high cloud climatology valuesin present data may be the result of increase in air trafficresulted contrails over the region which results an increasein cirrus cloud formations due to tropical dynamics unlike

10 Journal of Climatology

271273275277279281283285

Mea

n te

mpe

ratu

re (∘

C)

101214161820

Stan

dard

devi

atio

n(∘

C)

dydx = 0013

r = 0891

(a)

minus10minus08minus06minus04minus02

00204060810

Tem

pera

ture

anom

aly

(∘C)

1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010(year)

dydx = 0013

r = 0891

Mean temperature11pt soothed line

Fitted lineStandard deviation

(b)

Figure 7 (a) Yearly mean temperature along with standard devia-tion and (b) anomaly

308312316320324328

1517192123252729dydx = 0012

r = 0725

Max

imum

tem

pera

ture

(∘C)

Stan

dard

devi

atio

n(∘

C)

(a)

minus12minus08minus04

0040812

1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010(year)

dydx = 0012

r = 0725

Tem

pera

ture

anom

aly

(∘C)

Standard deviationFitted line

11pt soothed lineMaximum temperature

(b)

Figure 8 (a) Yearly mean maximum temperature along withstandard deviation and (b) anomaly

microphysical processes in mid-latitudes as in Minnis et al[28] Zerefos et al [29] Eleftheratos et al [30] have studiedthe variability of cirrus clouds over the tropics governedby the activity of El Nino Southern Oscillation the QuasiBiennial Oscillation and solar activity Possible radiationbudget alterations modifications at the time of occurrenceof minimum and maximum temperatures are to be criticallyexamined as a part of future investigations Prominent twomaxima (secondarymaximum is very shallower compared to

dydx = 0014

r = 0952

226230234238242246

1012141618202224

Min

imum

tem

pera

ture

(∘C)

Stan

dard

dev

iatio

n(∘

C)

(a)

minus12minus08minus04

0040812

1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

dydx = 0014

r = 0952

(year)

Standard deviationFitted line11pt soothed lineMinimum temperature

Tem

pera

ture

anom

aly

(∘C)

(b)

Figure 9 (a) Yearly mean minimum temperature along withstandard deviation and (b) anomaly

dydx = 0002

r = 0190

1620242832

Stan

dard

dev

iatio

n

6670747882869094

Tem

pera

ture

rang

e(∘ C)

(a)

minus12minus08minus04

0040812

dydx = 0002

r = 0190

1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

Tem

pera

ture

rang

ean

omal

y(∘

C)

(year)

Temperature range11pt soothed line

Fitted lineStandard deviation

(b)

Figure 10 (a) Yearly mean temperature range along with standarddeviation and (b) anomaly

the primary) and two minima were seen in middle high andtotal cloud climatology

33 Mean Daily Climatology in Temperature Mean of dailymaximum minimum mean and range in temperaturebetween daily maximum and minimum temperatures arecomputed and depicted for the 365 days in a year (Figures2 3 4 and 5) along with their standard deviations Theincrease inmean daily values in present data temperatures arequite obvious and standard deviation values are fallen within

Journal of Climatology 11

(year)

123456789

101112

(mon

th)

1964 1966 1968 1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008

No data

20181614121008060402minus00minus02minus04minus06minus08minus10minus12minus14minus16minus18minus20

(∘C)

Figure 11 Maximum temperature anomaly

27∘C for all the four mean daily climatologies A differencestatistics for 365 days between present data to past data ismade and is shown in Figure 6 Out of 365 days more than80 mean daily maximum minimum and mean tempera-tures are distributed as greater than zero occurrences in thedifference statistics An elevated frequency of occurrence ofmore than 65 under less than zero class is a concrete featurewhich implies that the range amongmaximumandminimumtemperature is alarmingly diminishing

34 Interannual Variability Inter annual variability has crit-ically examined for annual mean of minimum maximumand mean temperatures annual rainfall in the SW and NEmonsoon over the station and for theKerala State and averageannual surface pressure in the SW and NE monsoons forthe station Each inter annual variability data has undergonean 11 year moving average with end point extrapolation tillthe raw data availability to bring out long term trend andthe trend line also has shown in each inter annual variabilityfigures similar to Krishnakumar et al [22] for the interannualvariability of rainfall over Kerala Interpolated values areobtained for each year from the trend and such a data setobtained has been subjected to statistical significant testinterpolated data has not taken for a particular year if theraw data point is missing for the corresponding year Thismethod has enabled no reduction in the degrees of freedom(df ) To confirm the statistical significance on various 11year moving averaged data and also to assess the strength ofsample correlation coefficient (119903) linear regression t-test werecarried out and the results are presented (Table 6) Generallystrong and significant linear trend variations are observedEven though linear trends of maximum and minimumtemperatures have shown strong and significant statisticaltrends the derived variable-temperature range has resulteda weak and insignificant test statisticThis may be statisticallyinferred as a variable derived out of two variables whichfavours strong and significant test statistic separately need notshow the same test static of strong and significant

341 Interannual Variability in Temperature To assess theinterannual variability with temperature annual mean min-imum mean maximum and mean of mean temperaturesare found out for each year from 1964 to 2008 Also to

ascertain deviation from the normal each yearly mean valueis deducted from the mean of the entire values available forpresent data and thereby extracted the anomaly in tempera-ture Mean and standard deviation of daily mean maximumminimum and daily temperature range are computed for ayear and depicted in Figures 7 8 9 and 10 The fitted lineartrend line slope (dydx) as well as correlation coefficient (119903)values are annotated in graphs It is seen that from bothmeandaily temperature as well as from the maximum temperaturean abrupt prominent shift or a discernible upward trendis occurred after 1976 may be like the ldquoclimate shiftrdquo asstated by Trenberth [24] The 45 year rate in mean dailymaximum andminimum are obtained as +0585∘C +0540∘Cand +0630∘C respectively or with decadal rates of (+013 plusmn001)∘C (+012 plusmn 002)∘C and (+014 plusmn 00)∘C accordingly Inthe obtained value for the global mean surface temperatureas a whole (+007 plusmn 002)∘C surface temperatures over landhave risen at about double the ocean rate after 1979 (morethan (+027 plusmn 006)∘C per decade versus (+013 plusmn 004)∘Cper decade) as per the Trenberth et al [31] From 1950 to2004 the global land trend in diurnal temperature range wasextracted as negative (minus007∘C per decade) although tropicalareas are still underrepresented [31] Kumar et al [32] showedtrends of increase in diurnal temperature range significantincrease in annual maximum temperature and practicallytrendless annual minimum temperature over India in thelast century Our inter annual variability results coincidemostly with former studied data period which supports thedecrease of diurnal temperature range and the same is veryvivid from Figure 6 discussed earlier It infers that for thistropical coastal station the obtained decadal rate of (+0130plusmn001)∘C which is in agreement with global ocean rate maybe due to the station being coastal in origin The errorvalue reduction by plusmn003∘C for TERLS can be due to morestabilized single station data Also rate of increase in trend forminimum temperature is high in comparison to maximumtemperature A decreasing trend in maximum temperature isnoticed after 2005 with decreasing standard deviation valuesThis observation might be correct as a result of shifting theobservatory since 1964 to hardly 30m towards north in 2005were smooth and free sea-breeze flow which enables abruptreach of maximum temperature in the diurnal course aroundthe time of sea breeze onset The feature of attaining themaximum temperature of the day around the time of onset of

12 Journal of Climatology

Table 6 Linear trends of 11 year moving averaged data on various inter-annual variability Level of significance was choosen at 005 toread out critical 119905 values (119905

119888

) corresponding to the degree of freedom (df ) If 119903 gt 05 strong 119903 lt 05 weak 119905 gt 119905119888

significant and 119905 lt 119905119888

notsignificant

No Interannualvariability in 119903

Slope (119889119910119889119909) plusmnerror Calculated 119905 df Comments Data missing

1 Mean temperature 0891 0013 plusmn 0001 1208154 38Strong and

significant (Figures7(a) and 7(b))

1974 1975 19761982 and 1992

2 Mean maximumtemperature 0725 00121 plusmn 0002 650392 38

Strong andsignificant

(Figures 8(a) and 8(b)

1974 1975 19761982 and 1992

3 Mean minimumtemperature 0952 0014 plusmn 0000 1929677 38

Strong andsignificant

(Figures 9(a) and9(b))

1974 1975 19761982 and 1992

4 Mean temperaturerange minus0190 minus0002 plusmn 0002 minus119078 38

Weak and notsignificant

(Figure 10(a))

1974 1975 19761982 and 1992

5South West

monsoon rainfall(Thumba)

minus0477 minus2145 plusmn 0616 minus3483 41 Weak and significant(Figure 14) 1964 1998

6North East

monsoon rainfall(Thumba)

0848 3928 plusmn 0393 10000 39 Strong and significant(Figure 15)

1964 1977 1992and 1998

7South West

monsoon rainfall(Kerala)

minus0721 minus6149 plusmn 0934 minus6587 40 Strong and significant(Figure 16)

1964 2007 and2008

8North East

monsoon rainfall(Kerala)

0737 3430 plusmn 0491 6986 41 Strong and significant(Figure 17) 1964 2008

9South West

monsoon surfacepressure

0445 0006 plusmn 0002 2899 34 Weak and significant(Figure 18) 1964 to 1972

10North East

monsoon surfacepressure

minus0616 0010 plusmn 0002 minus4555 34 Strong and significant(Figure 19) 1964 to 1972

123456789

101112

(mon

th)

1964 1966 1968 1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008

No data

20181614121008060402minus00minus02minus04minus06minus08minus10minus12minus14minus16minus18minus20

(∘C)

Figure 12 Minimum temperature anomaly

sea breeze is known [33] As the station is of coastal in originthe occurrence of daily maximum temperature is very muchlinked to the setting and strong establishment of sea breezefront towards the land areas

Mean monthly anomaly structures in minimum max-imum and mean temperatures are presented in time sec-tion contour diagrams (Figures 11 12 and 13) All contour

depictions show well-marked temperature increase duringthe course of years and are so pronounced after 1976

342 Interannual Variability in SW and NE Monsoon Rain-fall and Surface Pressure Interannual variability in rainfalland surface pressure particularly for SW monsoon and NEmonsoon are studied A decrease in trend in SW monsoon

Journal of Climatology 13

123456789

101112

(mon

th)

(year)1964 1966 1968 1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008

No data

14121008060402

(∘C)

minus00minus02minus04minus06minus08minus10minus12minus14minus16minus18minus20minus22

Figure 13 Mean temperature anomaly

300400500600700800900

100011001200130014001500

1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010(year)

Rain

fall

(mm

)

dydx = minus2145

r = minus0477

Figure 14 South West monsoon rainfall over Thumba

(year)

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1000

1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

Rain

fall

(mm

)

dydx = 3928

r = 0848

Figure 15 North East monsoon rainfall over Thumba

and an increase in trend in NE monsoons are the observedfeatures over the station with decadal variability of (minus215 plusmn62)mm and (+393 plusmn 39)mm respectively (Figures 14and 15) Analysis by considering initial rainfall values (atthe beginning year on the fitted straight line) of SouthWest monsoon North East monsoon corresponding slopeof them as 817822mm 296535mm minus215mmdecade and

(year)

1000

1250

1500

1750

2000

2250

2500

2750

3000

3250

1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

Rain

fall

(mm

)

dydx = minus6149r = minus0721

Figure 16 South West monsoon rainfall over Kerala

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1000

1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010(year)

Rain

fall

(mm

)

r = 0737

dydx = 3430

Figure 17 North East monsoon rainfall over Kerala

393mmdecade respectively shows the likelihood exceedof North East monsoon rainfall over South West monsoonover this region after the year 2050 if the current trendcontinues Similar analyses are carried out on the slot 1965to 2007 for the Kerala meteorological subdivision from thelongest instrumental rainfall series of the Indian regions(1813ndash2006) ([34] httpwwwtropmetresin) The actualrainfall amount over Kerala during 2007 is obtained from the

14 Journal of Climatology

10070100751008010085100901009510100

Pres

sure

(mb)

dydx = 00061r = 04452

(a)

101214161820

1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008100012501500175020002250

Standard deviationNumber of observations

(year)

Stan

dard

de

viat

ion

(mb)

No

of o

bser

vatio

ns

(b)

Figure 18 (a) Interannual variability in surface pressure for SouthWest monsoon season along with (b) standard deviation andnumber of observations

100801008510090100951010010105101101011510120

Pres

sure

(mb)

dydx = minus0010r = minus0616

(a)

10

15

20

25

1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008500700900110013001500

Standard deviationNo of observations

(year)

Stan

dard

de

viat

ion

(mb)

No

of o

bser

vatio

ns

(b)

Figure 19 (a) Interannual variability in surface pressure for NorthEastmonsoon season alongwith (b) standard deviation and numberof observations

quarterly journal theMAUSAM (July 2008 andOctober 2008issues) Decadal variations show a decreasing trend in SWmonsoon by (minus615 plusmn 93)mm and increasing trend in NEmonsoon by (+340 plusmn 49)mm (Figures 16 and 17)

Interannual variability in surface pressure was derivedand depicted for SW monsoon (Figure 18) and NE monsoon(Figure 19) For this every hourly data available since 1973

was subjected to mean monthly value computation Numberof observations available ranges from 1100 to 2245 in SWmonsoon and 500 to 1495 in NE monsoon respectivelyand provided along with the standard deviation values inthe above figures Since atmospheric pressure is a highlystabilized property over a region for a particular season thedecadal trend variability observed is (+006 plusmn 002)mb and(ndash010plusmn002)mb for SWmonsoon andNEmonsoon respec-tively The positive (increase) and negative (decrease) inter-annual trends observed in SW monsoon and NE monsoonrespectively might have contributed possible implications inthe development of associated synoptic scale meteorologicalsystems (position and orientation of troughsridges and lowpressures) and thereby corresponding decrease and increasein SWmonsoon and NE monsoon rainfall trends

4 Conclusion

Long-term surface meteorological records from TERLS werecollected and analysed to study the long-term changes inoverall climatology climatology pertained to a particulartime of observation mean daily climatology in temperatureinterannual variability in temperature interannual variabilityin SW andNEmonsoon rainfall andmeanmonthly anomalystructure in temperature Results on various analyses showstrong and vivid features contributed by climate change Thesalient features observed contributed by climate change are asfollows

(1) All the temperatures show increase in their behaviourwith slight decrease in RH between the presentclimatology and past climatology

(2) Steadiness of wind decreases especially in non-SWmonsoon months which gives an indirect signatureof possible modifications in meso-scale systems

(3) High cloud climatology increases and thereby proba-ble modifications in radiation budget time of occur-rence of maximum and minimum temperatures

(4) Daily statistics for 365 days show more than 80exceedance in present climatology in comparison topast in minimum maximum andmean temperature

(5) Interannual variability analysis in mean temperaturefor this tropical coastal station shows +13∘C100 yearswhich is same as that of global ocean rate

(6) Observed interannual rainfall variability in SWmon-soon and North East monsoon shows decrease intrend by ndash2145mmdecade and increase in trendby +393mmdecade respectively Prognosis on thisobservation points out the likelihood exceedance ofNE monsoon rainfall over the South West monsoonafter the year 2050 for the station But it is prejudicialto infer that the rainfall increase in NE monsoon cancompensate the forecasted decrease in SWmonsoonsince NE monsoon is mostly of heavy rainfall innature as a result of meso-scale convective systemsSuch rainfall runoff is very fast than the slow waterinfiltration feature in association with SW monsoon

Journal of Climatology 15

rainfall which is essential for irrigation and agricul-tural needs

(7) Decadal variability in surface pressure has shown+006mb and minus010mb for SW monsoon and NEmonsoon respectively

The imprints due to climate change on various meteoro-logical parameters over this coastal station proved that theregion also faces vulnerable situation due to the phenom-ena and therefore necessary engineeringmethodssocioeco-nomic steps are to be undertaken

Acknowledgments

The availability of this unique data for a continuous periodof 45 years is the outcome of concerted and whole heartedefforts put in by the staffs of TERLSIndia MeteorologicalDepartment It is a pleasure to acknowledge with esteemedgratitude the team that worked since 1963 at the TERLSThumba whose efforts have yielded the voluminous uniquedata bank which is available for investigations The authorsare extremely grateful to Dr K Krishnamoorthy DirectorSpace Physics Laboratory VSSC and the reviewers for theirvaluable comments that helped to improve the paper to thefinal form

References

[1] N Oreskes ldquoThe scientific consensus on climatic changerdquoScience vol 306 p 1686 2004

[2] H Ayyar Effect of Pollution on Weather Science ReporterCouncil of Scientific and Industrial Research (CSIR) 1973

[3] K Rupa Kumar A K Sahai K Krishna Kumar et al ldquoHigh-resolution climate change scenarios for India for the 21stcenturyrdquo Current Science vol 90 no 3 pp 334ndash345 2006

[4] P Brohan J J Kennedy I Harris S F B Tett and P DJones ldquoUncertainty estimates in regional and global observedtemperature changes a new data set from 1850rdquo Journal ofGeophysical Research D vol 111 no 12 Article IDD12106 2006

[5] T M Smith and R W Reynolds ldquoA global merged land-air-sea surface temperature reconstruction based on historicalobservations (1880ndash1997)rdquo Journal of Climate vol 18 no 12 pp2021ndash2036 2005

[6] K M Lugina P Y Groisman K Y Vinnikov V V Koknaevaand N A Speranskaya ldquoMonthly surface air temperature timeseries area-averaged over the 30-degree latitudinal belts of theglobe 1881-2004 In Trends a compendium of data on globalchangerdquo Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Centre OakRidge National Laboratory US Department of Energy OakRidge TennUSA 2005 httpcdiacesdornlgovtrendstempluginaluginahtml

[7] J Hansen R RuedyM Sato et al ldquoA closer look atUnited Statesand global surface temperature changerdquo Journal of GeophysicalResearch D vol 106 no 20 pp 23947ndash23963 2001

[8] S Solomon D Quin M Manning et al ldquoContribution ofworking group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the IPCCrdquoTech Rep IPCC-AR4 2007

[9] R C Balling Jr and S W Brazel ldquoRecent changes in PhoenixArizona summertime diurnal precipitation patternsrdquo Theoreti-cal and Applied Climatology vol 38 no 1 pp 50ndash54 1987

[10] R Bornstein and Q Lin ldquoUrban heat islands and summertimeconvective thunderstorms in Atlanta three case studiesrdquoAtmo-spheric Environment vol 34 no 3 pp 507ndash516 2000

[11] P G Dixon and T L Mote ldquoPatterns and cause of Atlandarsquosurban heat island-initiated precipitationrdquo Journal of AppliedMeteorology vol 42 pp 1273ndash1284 2003

[12] F Fujibe ldquoLong-term surface wind changes in the Tokyometropolitan area in the afternoon of sunny days in the warmseasonrdquo Journal of the Meteorological Society of Japan vol 81no 1 pp 141ndash149 2003

[13] T Inoue and F Kimura ldquoUrban effects on low-level cloudsaround the Tokyo metropolitan area on clear summer daysrdquoGeophysical Research Letters vol 31 no 5 Article ID L051032004

[14] JM ShepherdH Pierce andA J Negri ldquoRainfallmodificationby major urban areas observations from spaceborne rain radaron the TRMM satelliterdquo Journal of Applied Meteorology vol 41no 7 pp 689ndash701 2002

[15] C Price SMichaelides S Pashiardis and P Alpert ldquoLong termchanges in diurnal temperature range in Cyprusrdquo AtmosphericResearch vol 51 no 2 pp 85ndash98 1999

[16] H N Singh S D Patil S D Bansod and N Singh ldquoSeasonalvariability in mean sea level pressure extremes over the Indianregionrdquo Atmospheric Research vol 101 no 1-2 pp 102ndash111 2011

[17] J Kingwell J Shimizu K Narita H Kawabata and I ShimizuldquoWeather factors affecting rocket operations a review and casehistoryrdquo American Meteorological Society vol 72 pp 778ndash7931991

[18] R E Turner and C K Hill Terrestrial Environment (Climatic)Guidlines for Use in Aerospace Vehicle Development 1982 Revi-sion Technical Memor 82473 National Aeronautics and SpaceAdministration 1982

[19] ldquoSpace Research in Indiardquo in Proceedings of the 38th COSPARMeeting pp 199ndash204 Bremen Germeny 2010

[20] P V Joseph and A Simon ldquoWeakening trend of the southwestmonsoon current through peninsular India from 1950 to thepresentrdquo Current Science vol 89 no 4 pp 687ndash694 2005

[21] S K Dash J R Kumar and M S Shekhar ldquoOn the decreasingfrequency of monsoon depressions over the Indian regionrdquoCurrent Science vol 86 no 10 pp 1404ndash1411 2004

[22] K N Krishnakumar G S L H V Prasada Rao and C SGopakumar ldquoRainfall trends in twentieth century over KeralaIndiardquo Atmospheric Environment vol 43 no 11 pp 1940ndash19442009

[23] National Council of Educational Research and Training(NCERT) India Text book of physicsmdashpart I for class 11 2006

[24] K E Trenberth ldquoRecent observed interdecadal climate changesin the Northern Hemisphererdquo Bulletin of the American Meteo-rological Society vol 71 no 7 pp 988ndash993 1990

[25] T K Karl H F Diaz and G Kukla ldquoUrbanization its detectionand effect in the United States climate recordrdquo Journal ofClimate vol 1 pp 1099ndash1123 1988

[26] M Rebetez andM Beniston ldquoChanges in sunshine duration arecorrelated with changes in daily temperature range this centuryan analysis of Swiss climatological datardquo Geophysical ResearchLetters vol 25 no 19 pp 3611ndash3613 1998

[27] K V S Namboodiri P K Dileep and K Mammen ldquoWindsteadiness up to 35 km and its variability before the SouthWestMonsoon onset and the withdrawalrdquoMausam vol 63 pp 275ndash282 2012

16 Journal of Climatology

[28] PMinnis A J Kirk P Rabindra and P Dung ldquoContrails cirrustrends and climaterdquo Journal of Climate vol 17 pp 1671ndash16852004

[29] C S Zerefos K Eleftheratos D S Balis P Zanis G Tselioudisand C Meleti ldquoEvidence of impact of aviation on cirrus cloudformationrdquoAtmospheric Chemistry and Physics vol 3 no 5 pp1633ndash1644 2003

[30] K Eleftheratos C S Zerefos C Varotsos and I KapsomenakisldquoInterannual variability of cirrus clouds in the tropics in elnino southern oscillation (ENSO) regions based on interna-tional satellite cloud climatology project (ISCCP) satellite datardquoInternational Journal of Remote Sensing vol 32 no 21 pp 6395ndash6405 2011

[31] K E Trenberth P D Jones and P Ambenje ldquoObservationssurface and climate changerdquo in Climate Change 2007 ThePhysical Science Basis Contribution of working group I to theFourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel onClimate Change S Solomon D Qin and M Manning EdsCambridge University Press Cambridge UK 2007

[32] K R Kumar K K Kumar and G B Pant ldquoDiurnal asymmetryof surface temperature trends over Indiardquo Geophysical ResearchLetters vol 21 no 8 pp 677ndash680 1994

[33] T R Sivaramakrishnan and P S Prakash Rao ldquoSea-breezefeatures over Sriharikota Indiardquo Meteorological Magazine vol118 no 1400 pp 64ndash67 1989

[34] NA SontakkeN Singh andHN Singh ldquoInstrumental periodrainfall series of the Indian region (AD 1813ndash2005) revisedreconstruction update and analysisrdquoHolocene vol 18 no 7 pp1055ndash1066 2008

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ClimatologyJournal of

Page 6: Research Article Climatic Variation at Thumba Equatorial Rocket Launching Station, India · 2016. 8. 22. · Research Article Climatic Variation at Thumba Equatorial Rocket Launching

6 Journal of Climatology

Table3Clim

atolog

yandΔof

dry-bu

lbtemperaturew

etbu

lbtemperaturedew

pointtem

peraturerelativeh

umidityand

soiltemperature

Mon

thDry-bulbtemperature

(0830IST)∘

CWet-bulbtemperature

(0830IST)∘

CDew

pointtem

perature

(0830IST)∘

CRe

lativeh

umidity

()

(0830IST)

Soiltemperature

(0830IST)∘

C1964

ndash1993

1979ndash2008Δ

1964

ndash1993

1979ndash2008Δ

1964

ndash1993

1979ndash2008Δ

1964

ndash1993

1979ndash2008Δ

1964

ndash1993

1979ndash2008Δ

JAN

2606

2707

+101

2233

2290

+057

2035

2069

+034

7136

6885minus251

2903

3138

+235

FEB

2677

2771

+094

2304

2355

+051

2112

2143

+031

7176

6941minus235

3041

3254

+213

MAR

2831

2920

+089

2458

2494

+036

2281

2294

+013

7255

6953

minus302

3280

3425

+145

APR

2929

3000

+071

2609

2630

+021

2471

2472

+001

7656

7361minus295

3373

3511

+138

MAY

2870

2943

+073

2612

2643

+031

2502

2517

+015

8094

7833

minus261

3246

3416

+170

JUN

2661

2733

+072

2520

2557

+037

2455

2481

+026

8851

8643minus208

2955

3099

+144

JUL

2576

2636

+060

2455

2488

+033

2395

2421

+026

8980

8803minus17

72901

3000

+099

AUG

2590

2660

+070

2460

2496

+036

2397

2422

+025

8940

8698minus242

2960

3096

+136

SEP

2662

2737

+075

2484

2521

+037

2402

2425

+023

8577

8345minus232

3110

3223

+113

OCT

2681

2759

+078

2490

2533

+043

2402

2432

+030

8501

8261minus240

3140

3245

+105

NOV

2690

2763

+073

2440

2486

+046

2327

2358

+031

8084

7935minus14

93099

3202

+103

DEC

2670

2759

+089

2335

2372

+037

2161

2174

+013

7448

7139

minus309

3052

3209

+157

DEC

JANand

FEB

winterMAR

APR

and

MAY

sum

merJUNJULAU

Gand

SEP

SWmon

soon

OCT

NOV

NEmon

soon

Journal of Climatology 7

Table4Clim

atolog

yandΔof

visib

ilitycodelow

cloud

highclo

udand

totalcloud

Mon

thVisib

ilitycode

(0830IST)

Lowclo

ud(0830IST)

Middlec

loud

(0830IST)

Highclo

ud(0830IST)

Totalcloud

(0830IST)

1964

ndash1993

1979ndash2008Δ

1964

ndash1993

1979ndash2008Δ

1964

ndash1993

1979ndash2008Δ

1964

ndash1993

1979ndash2008Δ

1964

ndash1993

1979ndash2008Δ

JAN

9679

9698

+019

055

047

minus008

081

078

minus003

118

135

+017

251

253

+002

FEB

9675

9691

+016

048

047

minus001

066

058

minus008

108

116

+008

221

217

minus004

MAR

9661

9688

+027

062

071

+009

054

037

minus017

106

121

+015

220

224

+004

APR

9677

9686

+009

125

157

+032

100

087

minus013

172

179

+007

391

394

+003

MAY

9670

9668minus002

202

208

+006

145

143minus002

156

164

+008

487

468

minus019

JUN

9626

9643

+017

286

284

minus002

231

237

+006

116

149

+033

596

590

minus006

JUL

9610

9637

+027

274

274

+000

250

282

+032

126

167

+041

596

606

+010

AUG

9641

9658

+017

227

238

+011

231

228

minus003

131

186

+055

563

568

+005

SEP

9648

9663

+015

216

215

minus001

163

162minus001

134

162

+028

493

490

minus003

OCT

9676

9670minus006

175

196

+021

207

214

+007

129

173

+044

492

506

+014

NOV

9668

9665minus003

144

155

+011

186

194

+008

126

172

+046

440

465

+025

DEC

9681

9679minus002

101

091

minus010

140

115minus025

120

140

+020

356

325

minus031

DEC

JANand

FEB

winterMAR

APR

and

MAY

sum

merJUNJULAU

Gand

SEP

SWmon

soon

OCT

NOV

NEmon

soon

8 Journal of Climatology

Table 5 Climatology and Δ of wind speed (scalar) wind speed (resultant) and wind steadiness factor

MonthWind speed (scalar)(0830 IST) msminus1

Wind speed (resultant)(0830 IST) msminus1

Wind steadiness factor(0830 IST) ()

1964ndash1993 1979ndash2008 Δ 1979ndash2008 Δ 1964ndash1993 1979ndash2008 Δ

JAN 104 075 minus029 071 033 minus038 6889 4448 minus2441FEB 107 081 minus026 073 038 minus035 6795 4736 minus2059MAR 121 100 minus021 083 056 minus027 6849 5615 minus1234APR 129 100 minus029 092 063 minus029 7146 6315 minus831MAY 145 104 minus041 114 075 minus039 7840 7244 minus596JUN 149 109 minus040 103 08 minus023 6897 7365 +468JUL 168 135 minus033 115 094 minus021 6808 6960 +152AUG 161 131 minus030 136 105 minus031 8468 7999 minus469SEP 157 110 minus047 117 081 minus036 7457 7406 minus051OCT 110 082 minus028 064 040 minus024 5869 4926 minus943NOV 097 074 minus023 049 023 minus026 5029 3117 minus1912DEC 101 075 minus026 067 037 minus030 6644 4888 minus1756DEC JAN and FEB winter MAR APR and MAY summer JUN JUL AUG and SEP SWmonsoon OCT NOV NE monsoon

the order 05ms are due to decrease in wind speeds inthe present data climatology in comparison with past dataclimatology Wind steadiness factor values at 0830 IST arecomputed as the ratio of mean resultant wind speed to meanscalar wind (average value of scalar wind speeds) expressed in and the two slot climatologies are made Wind steadinessfactor is a general meteorological technique in order to derivethe quantitative estimate of steadiness of wind direction[27] The feature of losing controllability of blowing windsfrom a specific direction (computed from wind steadiness)as the demand of a particular season might be justified asa result of heat island effect of the very fast developingurbanisation hardly 8 km East South East of the observatoryand the increasing vehicle populations and thereby drasticmodifications in at 0830 IST observations which belongto land breeze prevalence over the station in the non-SWmonsoonal months (up to a maximum of 20 decrease)Throughout the day strong seabreeze is in prevalence in theSW monsoon months Even in the SW monsoon which isdominantly associated with unidirectional wind flow slightdeteriorations in the steadiness of the wind directions haveobserved Both the above observations brought out thephenomenal changes in the steadiness of offshorewinds (landbreeze) at 0830 IST during the non-SW monsoonal monthsat greater extend and onshore wind (sea breeze) at 0830 ISTduring the SW monsoon steadiness in smaller grades Thefeature of very prominent decrease in direction steadinessin preset data to the past is clearly detected As negative Δdominance exists in the non-SW monsoon months wherechange over of land-sea breezes are so pronounced for thestation this observation may be further studied in order tocheck any possible modifications in the meso-scale meteoro-logical phenomena like sealand breeze thunderstorms dueto associated thermal and moisture environment changes

Visibility and cloud climatologies are also studied Asthese observational procedures are non-instrumental thedata is too subjective and quality observation is solely vested

260265270275280285290295300305

Tem

pera

ture

(∘C)

(a)

00040812162024

Date

Stan

dard

devi

atio

n (∘

C)

1964ndash19931979ndash2008

Jan

1 10 20 10 20M

ar 1 10 20

Apr

1 10 20M

ay 1 20

Jun

1 10 20Ju

l 1 10 20A

ug 1 10 20

Sep

1 10

Oct

1 10 20N

ov 1 10 20

Dec

1 10 20 D

ec 3

1

(b)

Figure 2 (a) Mean daily temperature climatologies in 1964ndash19931979ndash2008 and their differences along with (b) standard deviationof corresponding climatologies

on the experience of the weather observer The observationshows better visibility codes in the present data climatologyA visibility code of 96 and above signifies that a well-definedobject (like a mobile phone tower) at least 1 km far can bedistinctly differentiable Among various cloud climatologydominant positiveΔ values are existed in high clouds throughout the year whichmay be pointed out as one of the reason forsubdued albedo effect which enhances greenhouse effect and

Journal of Climatology 9

50556065707580859095

100105110115120125

Tem

pera

ture

rang

e (∘ C)

(a)

0004081216202428

Date

Stan

dard

devi

atio

n(∘

C)

1964ndash19931979ndash2008

Jan

1 10 20 10 20M

ar 1 10 20

Apr

1 10 20M

ay 1 20

Jun

1 10 20Ju

l 1 10 20A

ug 1 10 20

Sep

1 10

Oct

1 10 20N

ov 1 10 20

Dec

1 10 20 D

ec 3

1

(b)

Figure 3 (a) Mean daily temperature range climatologies in 1964ndash1993 1979ndash2008 and their differences along with (b) standarddeviation of corresponding climatologies

285290295300305310315320325330335340345350

Max

imum

tem

pera

ture

(∘C)

(a)

00040812162024

Jan

1 10 20 10 20M

ar 1 10 20

Apr 1 10 20

May

1 20Ju

n 1 10 20

Jul 1 10 20

Aug

1 10 20Se

p 1 10

Oct

1 10 20N

ov 1 10 20

Dec

1 10 20 D

ec 3

1

Date

Stan

dard

devi

atio

n(∘

C)

1964ndash19931979ndash2008

(b)

Figure 4 (a) Maximum daily temperature climatologies in 1964ndash1993 1979ndash2008 and their differences along with (b) standarddeviation of corresponding climatologies

200205210215220225230235240245250255260265

Min

imum

tem

pera

ture

(∘C)

(a)

00040812162024

Date

Stan

dard

devi

atio

n(∘

C)

1964ndash19931979ndash2008

Jan

1 10 20Fe

b 1 10 20

Mar

1 10 20A

pr 1 10 20

May

1 10 20Ju

n 1 10 20

Jul 1 10 20

Aug

1 10 20Se

p 1 10 20

Oct

1 10 20N

ov 1 10 20

Dec

1 10 20 D

ec 3

1

(b)

Figure 5 (a) Minimum daily temperature climatologies in 1964ndash1993 1979ndash2008 and their differences along with (b) standarddeviation of corresponding climatologies

0102030405060708090100

Less than zero Zero Greater than zero0

20406080

100120140160180200220240260280300320340360

Occ

urre

nces

(day

s)

Daily max tempDaily min temp

Daily mean tempRange

Occ

urre

nces

()

Figure 6 Difference statistics for 365 days between present data andpast data on daily maximum minimum mean temperatures andrange in temperature within a day

hereby surface temperature escalationThis may be the resultof number of high cloud types (Ci and Cc) are less comparedto the varieties of low and middle cloud types which enableseasy estimation for the observer while making counts onhigh clouds The increase in high cloud climatology valuesin present data may be the result of increase in air trafficresulted contrails over the region which results an increasein cirrus cloud formations due to tropical dynamics unlike

10 Journal of Climatology

271273275277279281283285

Mea

n te

mpe

ratu

re (∘

C)

101214161820

Stan

dard

devi

atio

n(∘

C)

dydx = 0013

r = 0891

(a)

minus10minus08minus06minus04minus02

00204060810

Tem

pera

ture

anom

aly

(∘C)

1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010(year)

dydx = 0013

r = 0891

Mean temperature11pt soothed line

Fitted lineStandard deviation

(b)

Figure 7 (a) Yearly mean temperature along with standard devia-tion and (b) anomaly

308312316320324328

1517192123252729dydx = 0012

r = 0725

Max

imum

tem

pera

ture

(∘C)

Stan

dard

devi

atio

n(∘

C)

(a)

minus12minus08minus04

0040812

1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010(year)

dydx = 0012

r = 0725

Tem

pera

ture

anom

aly

(∘C)

Standard deviationFitted line

11pt soothed lineMaximum temperature

(b)

Figure 8 (a) Yearly mean maximum temperature along withstandard deviation and (b) anomaly

microphysical processes in mid-latitudes as in Minnis et al[28] Zerefos et al [29] Eleftheratos et al [30] have studiedthe variability of cirrus clouds over the tropics governedby the activity of El Nino Southern Oscillation the QuasiBiennial Oscillation and solar activity Possible radiationbudget alterations modifications at the time of occurrenceof minimum and maximum temperatures are to be criticallyexamined as a part of future investigations Prominent twomaxima (secondarymaximum is very shallower compared to

dydx = 0014

r = 0952

226230234238242246

1012141618202224

Min

imum

tem

pera

ture

(∘C)

Stan

dard

dev

iatio

n(∘

C)

(a)

minus12minus08minus04

0040812

1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

dydx = 0014

r = 0952

(year)

Standard deviationFitted line11pt soothed lineMinimum temperature

Tem

pera

ture

anom

aly

(∘C)

(b)

Figure 9 (a) Yearly mean minimum temperature along withstandard deviation and (b) anomaly

dydx = 0002

r = 0190

1620242832

Stan

dard

dev

iatio

n

6670747882869094

Tem

pera

ture

rang

e(∘ C)

(a)

minus12minus08minus04

0040812

dydx = 0002

r = 0190

1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

Tem

pera

ture

rang

ean

omal

y(∘

C)

(year)

Temperature range11pt soothed line

Fitted lineStandard deviation

(b)

Figure 10 (a) Yearly mean temperature range along with standarddeviation and (b) anomaly

the primary) and two minima were seen in middle high andtotal cloud climatology

33 Mean Daily Climatology in Temperature Mean of dailymaximum minimum mean and range in temperaturebetween daily maximum and minimum temperatures arecomputed and depicted for the 365 days in a year (Figures2 3 4 and 5) along with their standard deviations Theincrease inmean daily values in present data temperatures arequite obvious and standard deviation values are fallen within

Journal of Climatology 11

(year)

123456789

101112

(mon

th)

1964 1966 1968 1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008

No data

20181614121008060402minus00minus02minus04minus06minus08minus10minus12minus14minus16minus18minus20

(∘C)

Figure 11 Maximum temperature anomaly

27∘C for all the four mean daily climatologies A differencestatistics for 365 days between present data to past data ismade and is shown in Figure 6 Out of 365 days more than80 mean daily maximum minimum and mean tempera-tures are distributed as greater than zero occurrences in thedifference statistics An elevated frequency of occurrence ofmore than 65 under less than zero class is a concrete featurewhich implies that the range amongmaximumandminimumtemperature is alarmingly diminishing

34 Interannual Variability Inter annual variability has crit-ically examined for annual mean of minimum maximumand mean temperatures annual rainfall in the SW and NEmonsoon over the station and for theKerala State and averageannual surface pressure in the SW and NE monsoons forthe station Each inter annual variability data has undergonean 11 year moving average with end point extrapolation tillthe raw data availability to bring out long term trend andthe trend line also has shown in each inter annual variabilityfigures similar to Krishnakumar et al [22] for the interannualvariability of rainfall over Kerala Interpolated values areobtained for each year from the trend and such a data setobtained has been subjected to statistical significant testinterpolated data has not taken for a particular year if theraw data point is missing for the corresponding year Thismethod has enabled no reduction in the degrees of freedom(df ) To confirm the statistical significance on various 11year moving averaged data and also to assess the strength ofsample correlation coefficient (119903) linear regression t-test werecarried out and the results are presented (Table 6) Generallystrong and significant linear trend variations are observedEven though linear trends of maximum and minimumtemperatures have shown strong and significant statisticaltrends the derived variable-temperature range has resulteda weak and insignificant test statisticThis may be statisticallyinferred as a variable derived out of two variables whichfavours strong and significant test statistic separately need notshow the same test static of strong and significant

341 Interannual Variability in Temperature To assess theinterannual variability with temperature annual mean min-imum mean maximum and mean of mean temperaturesare found out for each year from 1964 to 2008 Also to

ascertain deviation from the normal each yearly mean valueis deducted from the mean of the entire values available forpresent data and thereby extracted the anomaly in tempera-ture Mean and standard deviation of daily mean maximumminimum and daily temperature range are computed for ayear and depicted in Figures 7 8 9 and 10 The fitted lineartrend line slope (dydx) as well as correlation coefficient (119903)values are annotated in graphs It is seen that from bothmeandaily temperature as well as from the maximum temperaturean abrupt prominent shift or a discernible upward trendis occurred after 1976 may be like the ldquoclimate shiftrdquo asstated by Trenberth [24] The 45 year rate in mean dailymaximum andminimum are obtained as +0585∘C +0540∘Cand +0630∘C respectively or with decadal rates of (+013 plusmn001)∘C (+012 plusmn 002)∘C and (+014 plusmn 00)∘C accordingly Inthe obtained value for the global mean surface temperatureas a whole (+007 plusmn 002)∘C surface temperatures over landhave risen at about double the ocean rate after 1979 (morethan (+027 plusmn 006)∘C per decade versus (+013 plusmn 004)∘Cper decade) as per the Trenberth et al [31] From 1950 to2004 the global land trend in diurnal temperature range wasextracted as negative (minus007∘C per decade) although tropicalareas are still underrepresented [31] Kumar et al [32] showedtrends of increase in diurnal temperature range significantincrease in annual maximum temperature and practicallytrendless annual minimum temperature over India in thelast century Our inter annual variability results coincidemostly with former studied data period which supports thedecrease of diurnal temperature range and the same is veryvivid from Figure 6 discussed earlier It infers that for thistropical coastal station the obtained decadal rate of (+0130plusmn001)∘C which is in agreement with global ocean rate maybe due to the station being coastal in origin The errorvalue reduction by plusmn003∘C for TERLS can be due to morestabilized single station data Also rate of increase in trend forminimum temperature is high in comparison to maximumtemperature A decreasing trend in maximum temperature isnoticed after 2005 with decreasing standard deviation valuesThis observation might be correct as a result of shifting theobservatory since 1964 to hardly 30m towards north in 2005were smooth and free sea-breeze flow which enables abruptreach of maximum temperature in the diurnal course aroundthe time of sea breeze onset The feature of attaining themaximum temperature of the day around the time of onset of

12 Journal of Climatology

Table 6 Linear trends of 11 year moving averaged data on various inter-annual variability Level of significance was choosen at 005 toread out critical 119905 values (119905

119888

) corresponding to the degree of freedom (df ) If 119903 gt 05 strong 119903 lt 05 weak 119905 gt 119905119888

significant and 119905 lt 119905119888

notsignificant

No Interannualvariability in 119903

Slope (119889119910119889119909) plusmnerror Calculated 119905 df Comments Data missing

1 Mean temperature 0891 0013 plusmn 0001 1208154 38Strong and

significant (Figures7(a) and 7(b))

1974 1975 19761982 and 1992

2 Mean maximumtemperature 0725 00121 plusmn 0002 650392 38

Strong andsignificant

(Figures 8(a) and 8(b)

1974 1975 19761982 and 1992

3 Mean minimumtemperature 0952 0014 plusmn 0000 1929677 38

Strong andsignificant

(Figures 9(a) and9(b))

1974 1975 19761982 and 1992

4 Mean temperaturerange minus0190 minus0002 plusmn 0002 minus119078 38

Weak and notsignificant

(Figure 10(a))

1974 1975 19761982 and 1992

5South West

monsoon rainfall(Thumba)

minus0477 minus2145 plusmn 0616 minus3483 41 Weak and significant(Figure 14) 1964 1998

6North East

monsoon rainfall(Thumba)

0848 3928 plusmn 0393 10000 39 Strong and significant(Figure 15)

1964 1977 1992and 1998

7South West

monsoon rainfall(Kerala)

minus0721 minus6149 plusmn 0934 minus6587 40 Strong and significant(Figure 16)

1964 2007 and2008

8North East

monsoon rainfall(Kerala)

0737 3430 plusmn 0491 6986 41 Strong and significant(Figure 17) 1964 2008

9South West

monsoon surfacepressure

0445 0006 plusmn 0002 2899 34 Weak and significant(Figure 18) 1964 to 1972

10North East

monsoon surfacepressure

minus0616 0010 plusmn 0002 minus4555 34 Strong and significant(Figure 19) 1964 to 1972

123456789

101112

(mon

th)

1964 1966 1968 1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008

No data

20181614121008060402minus00minus02minus04minus06minus08minus10minus12minus14minus16minus18minus20

(∘C)

Figure 12 Minimum temperature anomaly

sea breeze is known [33] As the station is of coastal in originthe occurrence of daily maximum temperature is very muchlinked to the setting and strong establishment of sea breezefront towards the land areas

Mean monthly anomaly structures in minimum max-imum and mean temperatures are presented in time sec-tion contour diagrams (Figures 11 12 and 13) All contour

depictions show well-marked temperature increase duringthe course of years and are so pronounced after 1976

342 Interannual Variability in SW and NE Monsoon Rain-fall and Surface Pressure Interannual variability in rainfalland surface pressure particularly for SW monsoon and NEmonsoon are studied A decrease in trend in SW monsoon

Journal of Climatology 13

123456789

101112

(mon

th)

(year)1964 1966 1968 1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008

No data

14121008060402

(∘C)

minus00minus02minus04minus06minus08minus10minus12minus14minus16minus18minus20minus22

Figure 13 Mean temperature anomaly

300400500600700800900

100011001200130014001500

1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010(year)

Rain

fall

(mm

)

dydx = minus2145

r = minus0477

Figure 14 South West monsoon rainfall over Thumba

(year)

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1000

1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

Rain

fall

(mm

)

dydx = 3928

r = 0848

Figure 15 North East monsoon rainfall over Thumba

and an increase in trend in NE monsoons are the observedfeatures over the station with decadal variability of (minus215 plusmn62)mm and (+393 plusmn 39)mm respectively (Figures 14and 15) Analysis by considering initial rainfall values (atthe beginning year on the fitted straight line) of SouthWest monsoon North East monsoon corresponding slopeof them as 817822mm 296535mm minus215mmdecade and

(year)

1000

1250

1500

1750

2000

2250

2500

2750

3000

3250

1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

Rain

fall

(mm

)

dydx = minus6149r = minus0721

Figure 16 South West monsoon rainfall over Kerala

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1000

1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010(year)

Rain

fall

(mm

)

r = 0737

dydx = 3430

Figure 17 North East monsoon rainfall over Kerala

393mmdecade respectively shows the likelihood exceedof North East monsoon rainfall over South West monsoonover this region after the year 2050 if the current trendcontinues Similar analyses are carried out on the slot 1965to 2007 for the Kerala meteorological subdivision from thelongest instrumental rainfall series of the Indian regions(1813ndash2006) ([34] httpwwwtropmetresin) The actualrainfall amount over Kerala during 2007 is obtained from the

14 Journal of Climatology

10070100751008010085100901009510100

Pres

sure

(mb)

dydx = 00061r = 04452

(a)

101214161820

1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008100012501500175020002250

Standard deviationNumber of observations

(year)

Stan

dard

de

viat

ion

(mb)

No

of o

bser

vatio

ns

(b)

Figure 18 (a) Interannual variability in surface pressure for SouthWest monsoon season along with (b) standard deviation andnumber of observations

100801008510090100951010010105101101011510120

Pres

sure

(mb)

dydx = minus0010r = minus0616

(a)

10

15

20

25

1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008500700900110013001500

Standard deviationNo of observations

(year)

Stan

dard

de

viat

ion

(mb)

No

of o

bser

vatio

ns

(b)

Figure 19 (a) Interannual variability in surface pressure for NorthEastmonsoon season alongwith (b) standard deviation and numberof observations

quarterly journal theMAUSAM (July 2008 andOctober 2008issues) Decadal variations show a decreasing trend in SWmonsoon by (minus615 plusmn 93)mm and increasing trend in NEmonsoon by (+340 plusmn 49)mm (Figures 16 and 17)

Interannual variability in surface pressure was derivedand depicted for SW monsoon (Figure 18) and NE monsoon(Figure 19) For this every hourly data available since 1973

was subjected to mean monthly value computation Numberof observations available ranges from 1100 to 2245 in SWmonsoon and 500 to 1495 in NE monsoon respectivelyand provided along with the standard deviation values inthe above figures Since atmospheric pressure is a highlystabilized property over a region for a particular season thedecadal trend variability observed is (+006 plusmn 002)mb and(ndash010plusmn002)mb for SWmonsoon andNEmonsoon respec-tively The positive (increase) and negative (decrease) inter-annual trends observed in SW monsoon and NE monsoonrespectively might have contributed possible implications inthe development of associated synoptic scale meteorologicalsystems (position and orientation of troughsridges and lowpressures) and thereby corresponding decrease and increasein SWmonsoon and NE monsoon rainfall trends

4 Conclusion

Long-term surface meteorological records from TERLS werecollected and analysed to study the long-term changes inoverall climatology climatology pertained to a particulartime of observation mean daily climatology in temperatureinterannual variability in temperature interannual variabilityin SW andNEmonsoon rainfall andmeanmonthly anomalystructure in temperature Results on various analyses showstrong and vivid features contributed by climate change Thesalient features observed contributed by climate change are asfollows

(1) All the temperatures show increase in their behaviourwith slight decrease in RH between the presentclimatology and past climatology

(2) Steadiness of wind decreases especially in non-SWmonsoon months which gives an indirect signatureof possible modifications in meso-scale systems

(3) High cloud climatology increases and thereby proba-ble modifications in radiation budget time of occur-rence of maximum and minimum temperatures

(4) Daily statistics for 365 days show more than 80exceedance in present climatology in comparison topast in minimum maximum andmean temperature

(5) Interannual variability analysis in mean temperaturefor this tropical coastal station shows +13∘C100 yearswhich is same as that of global ocean rate

(6) Observed interannual rainfall variability in SWmon-soon and North East monsoon shows decrease intrend by ndash2145mmdecade and increase in trendby +393mmdecade respectively Prognosis on thisobservation points out the likelihood exceedance ofNE monsoon rainfall over the South West monsoonafter the year 2050 for the station But it is prejudicialto infer that the rainfall increase in NE monsoon cancompensate the forecasted decrease in SWmonsoonsince NE monsoon is mostly of heavy rainfall innature as a result of meso-scale convective systemsSuch rainfall runoff is very fast than the slow waterinfiltration feature in association with SW monsoon

Journal of Climatology 15

rainfall which is essential for irrigation and agricul-tural needs

(7) Decadal variability in surface pressure has shown+006mb and minus010mb for SW monsoon and NEmonsoon respectively

The imprints due to climate change on various meteoro-logical parameters over this coastal station proved that theregion also faces vulnerable situation due to the phenom-ena and therefore necessary engineeringmethodssocioeco-nomic steps are to be undertaken

Acknowledgments

The availability of this unique data for a continuous periodof 45 years is the outcome of concerted and whole heartedefforts put in by the staffs of TERLSIndia MeteorologicalDepartment It is a pleasure to acknowledge with esteemedgratitude the team that worked since 1963 at the TERLSThumba whose efforts have yielded the voluminous uniquedata bank which is available for investigations The authorsare extremely grateful to Dr K Krishnamoorthy DirectorSpace Physics Laboratory VSSC and the reviewers for theirvaluable comments that helped to improve the paper to thefinal form

References

[1] N Oreskes ldquoThe scientific consensus on climatic changerdquoScience vol 306 p 1686 2004

[2] H Ayyar Effect of Pollution on Weather Science ReporterCouncil of Scientific and Industrial Research (CSIR) 1973

[3] K Rupa Kumar A K Sahai K Krishna Kumar et al ldquoHigh-resolution climate change scenarios for India for the 21stcenturyrdquo Current Science vol 90 no 3 pp 334ndash345 2006

[4] P Brohan J J Kennedy I Harris S F B Tett and P DJones ldquoUncertainty estimates in regional and global observedtemperature changes a new data set from 1850rdquo Journal ofGeophysical Research D vol 111 no 12 Article IDD12106 2006

[5] T M Smith and R W Reynolds ldquoA global merged land-air-sea surface temperature reconstruction based on historicalobservations (1880ndash1997)rdquo Journal of Climate vol 18 no 12 pp2021ndash2036 2005

[6] K M Lugina P Y Groisman K Y Vinnikov V V Koknaevaand N A Speranskaya ldquoMonthly surface air temperature timeseries area-averaged over the 30-degree latitudinal belts of theglobe 1881-2004 In Trends a compendium of data on globalchangerdquo Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Centre OakRidge National Laboratory US Department of Energy OakRidge TennUSA 2005 httpcdiacesdornlgovtrendstempluginaluginahtml

[7] J Hansen R RuedyM Sato et al ldquoA closer look atUnited Statesand global surface temperature changerdquo Journal of GeophysicalResearch D vol 106 no 20 pp 23947ndash23963 2001

[8] S Solomon D Quin M Manning et al ldquoContribution ofworking group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the IPCCrdquoTech Rep IPCC-AR4 2007

[9] R C Balling Jr and S W Brazel ldquoRecent changes in PhoenixArizona summertime diurnal precipitation patternsrdquo Theoreti-cal and Applied Climatology vol 38 no 1 pp 50ndash54 1987

[10] R Bornstein and Q Lin ldquoUrban heat islands and summertimeconvective thunderstorms in Atlanta three case studiesrdquoAtmo-spheric Environment vol 34 no 3 pp 507ndash516 2000

[11] P G Dixon and T L Mote ldquoPatterns and cause of Atlandarsquosurban heat island-initiated precipitationrdquo Journal of AppliedMeteorology vol 42 pp 1273ndash1284 2003

[12] F Fujibe ldquoLong-term surface wind changes in the Tokyometropolitan area in the afternoon of sunny days in the warmseasonrdquo Journal of the Meteorological Society of Japan vol 81no 1 pp 141ndash149 2003

[13] T Inoue and F Kimura ldquoUrban effects on low-level cloudsaround the Tokyo metropolitan area on clear summer daysrdquoGeophysical Research Letters vol 31 no 5 Article ID L051032004

[14] JM ShepherdH Pierce andA J Negri ldquoRainfallmodificationby major urban areas observations from spaceborne rain radaron the TRMM satelliterdquo Journal of Applied Meteorology vol 41no 7 pp 689ndash701 2002

[15] C Price SMichaelides S Pashiardis and P Alpert ldquoLong termchanges in diurnal temperature range in Cyprusrdquo AtmosphericResearch vol 51 no 2 pp 85ndash98 1999

[16] H N Singh S D Patil S D Bansod and N Singh ldquoSeasonalvariability in mean sea level pressure extremes over the Indianregionrdquo Atmospheric Research vol 101 no 1-2 pp 102ndash111 2011

[17] J Kingwell J Shimizu K Narita H Kawabata and I ShimizuldquoWeather factors affecting rocket operations a review and casehistoryrdquo American Meteorological Society vol 72 pp 778ndash7931991

[18] R E Turner and C K Hill Terrestrial Environment (Climatic)Guidlines for Use in Aerospace Vehicle Development 1982 Revi-sion Technical Memor 82473 National Aeronautics and SpaceAdministration 1982

[19] ldquoSpace Research in Indiardquo in Proceedings of the 38th COSPARMeeting pp 199ndash204 Bremen Germeny 2010

[20] P V Joseph and A Simon ldquoWeakening trend of the southwestmonsoon current through peninsular India from 1950 to thepresentrdquo Current Science vol 89 no 4 pp 687ndash694 2005

[21] S K Dash J R Kumar and M S Shekhar ldquoOn the decreasingfrequency of monsoon depressions over the Indian regionrdquoCurrent Science vol 86 no 10 pp 1404ndash1411 2004

[22] K N Krishnakumar G S L H V Prasada Rao and C SGopakumar ldquoRainfall trends in twentieth century over KeralaIndiardquo Atmospheric Environment vol 43 no 11 pp 1940ndash19442009

[23] National Council of Educational Research and Training(NCERT) India Text book of physicsmdashpart I for class 11 2006

[24] K E Trenberth ldquoRecent observed interdecadal climate changesin the Northern Hemisphererdquo Bulletin of the American Meteo-rological Society vol 71 no 7 pp 988ndash993 1990

[25] T K Karl H F Diaz and G Kukla ldquoUrbanization its detectionand effect in the United States climate recordrdquo Journal ofClimate vol 1 pp 1099ndash1123 1988

[26] M Rebetez andM Beniston ldquoChanges in sunshine duration arecorrelated with changes in daily temperature range this centuryan analysis of Swiss climatological datardquo Geophysical ResearchLetters vol 25 no 19 pp 3611ndash3613 1998

[27] K V S Namboodiri P K Dileep and K Mammen ldquoWindsteadiness up to 35 km and its variability before the SouthWestMonsoon onset and the withdrawalrdquoMausam vol 63 pp 275ndash282 2012

16 Journal of Climatology

[28] PMinnis A J Kirk P Rabindra and P Dung ldquoContrails cirrustrends and climaterdquo Journal of Climate vol 17 pp 1671ndash16852004

[29] C S Zerefos K Eleftheratos D S Balis P Zanis G Tselioudisand C Meleti ldquoEvidence of impact of aviation on cirrus cloudformationrdquoAtmospheric Chemistry and Physics vol 3 no 5 pp1633ndash1644 2003

[30] K Eleftheratos C S Zerefos C Varotsos and I KapsomenakisldquoInterannual variability of cirrus clouds in the tropics in elnino southern oscillation (ENSO) regions based on interna-tional satellite cloud climatology project (ISCCP) satellite datardquoInternational Journal of Remote Sensing vol 32 no 21 pp 6395ndash6405 2011

[31] K E Trenberth P D Jones and P Ambenje ldquoObservationssurface and climate changerdquo in Climate Change 2007 ThePhysical Science Basis Contribution of working group I to theFourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel onClimate Change S Solomon D Qin and M Manning EdsCambridge University Press Cambridge UK 2007

[32] K R Kumar K K Kumar and G B Pant ldquoDiurnal asymmetryof surface temperature trends over Indiardquo Geophysical ResearchLetters vol 21 no 8 pp 677ndash680 1994

[33] T R Sivaramakrishnan and P S Prakash Rao ldquoSea-breezefeatures over Sriharikota Indiardquo Meteorological Magazine vol118 no 1400 pp 64ndash67 1989

[34] NA SontakkeN Singh andHN Singh ldquoInstrumental periodrainfall series of the Indian region (AD 1813ndash2005) revisedreconstruction update and analysisrdquoHolocene vol 18 no 7 pp1055ndash1066 2008

Submit your manuscripts athttpwwwhindawicom

Forestry ResearchInternational Journal of

Hindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

Environmental and Public Health

Journal of

Hindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

Hindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

EcosystemsJournal of

Hindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

MeteorologyAdvances in

EcologyInternational Journal of

Hindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

Marine BiologyJournal of

Hindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

Hindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom

Applied ampEnvironmentalSoil Science

Volume 2014

Advances in

Hindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

Environmental Chemistry

Atmospheric SciencesInternational Journal of

Hindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

Hindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

Waste ManagementJournal of

Hindawi Publishing Corporation httpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

International Journal of

Geophysics

Hindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

Geological ResearchJournal of

EarthquakesJournal of

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BiodiversityInternational Journal of

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ScientificaHindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

OceanographyInternational Journal of

Hindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

The Scientific World JournalHindawi Publishing Corporation httpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

Journal of Computational Environmental SciencesHindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

Hindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

ClimatologyJournal of

Page 7: Research Article Climatic Variation at Thumba Equatorial Rocket Launching Station, India · 2016. 8. 22. · Research Article Climatic Variation at Thumba Equatorial Rocket Launching

Journal of Climatology 7

Table4Clim

atolog

yandΔof

visib

ilitycodelow

cloud

highclo

udand

totalcloud

Mon

thVisib

ilitycode

(0830IST)

Lowclo

ud(0830IST)

Middlec

loud

(0830IST)

Highclo

ud(0830IST)

Totalcloud

(0830IST)

1964

ndash1993

1979ndash2008Δ

1964

ndash1993

1979ndash2008Δ

1964

ndash1993

1979ndash2008Δ

1964

ndash1993

1979ndash2008Δ

1964

ndash1993

1979ndash2008Δ

JAN

9679

9698

+019

055

047

minus008

081

078

minus003

118

135

+017

251

253

+002

FEB

9675

9691

+016

048

047

minus001

066

058

minus008

108

116

+008

221

217

minus004

MAR

9661

9688

+027

062

071

+009

054

037

minus017

106

121

+015

220

224

+004

APR

9677

9686

+009

125

157

+032

100

087

minus013

172

179

+007

391

394

+003

MAY

9670

9668minus002

202

208

+006

145

143minus002

156

164

+008

487

468

minus019

JUN

9626

9643

+017

286

284

minus002

231

237

+006

116

149

+033

596

590

minus006

JUL

9610

9637

+027

274

274

+000

250

282

+032

126

167

+041

596

606

+010

AUG

9641

9658

+017

227

238

+011

231

228

minus003

131

186

+055

563

568

+005

SEP

9648

9663

+015

216

215

minus001

163

162minus001

134

162

+028

493

490

minus003

OCT

9676

9670minus006

175

196

+021

207

214

+007

129

173

+044

492

506

+014

NOV

9668

9665minus003

144

155

+011

186

194

+008

126

172

+046

440

465

+025

DEC

9681

9679minus002

101

091

minus010

140

115minus025

120

140

+020

356

325

minus031

DEC

JANand

FEB

winterMAR

APR

and

MAY

sum

merJUNJULAU

Gand

SEP

SWmon

soon

OCT

NOV

NEmon

soon

8 Journal of Climatology

Table 5 Climatology and Δ of wind speed (scalar) wind speed (resultant) and wind steadiness factor

MonthWind speed (scalar)(0830 IST) msminus1

Wind speed (resultant)(0830 IST) msminus1

Wind steadiness factor(0830 IST) ()

1964ndash1993 1979ndash2008 Δ 1979ndash2008 Δ 1964ndash1993 1979ndash2008 Δ

JAN 104 075 minus029 071 033 minus038 6889 4448 minus2441FEB 107 081 minus026 073 038 minus035 6795 4736 minus2059MAR 121 100 minus021 083 056 minus027 6849 5615 minus1234APR 129 100 minus029 092 063 minus029 7146 6315 minus831MAY 145 104 minus041 114 075 minus039 7840 7244 minus596JUN 149 109 minus040 103 08 minus023 6897 7365 +468JUL 168 135 minus033 115 094 minus021 6808 6960 +152AUG 161 131 minus030 136 105 minus031 8468 7999 minus469SEP 157 110 minus047 117 081 minus036 7457 7406 minus051OCT 110 082 minus028 064 040 minus024 5869 4926 minus943NOV 097 074 minus023 049 023 minus026 5029 3117 minus1912DEC 101 075 minus026 067 037 minus030 6644 4888 minus1756DEC JAN and FEB winter MAR APR and MAY summer JUN JUL AUG and SEP SWmonsoon OCT NOV NE monsoon

the order 05ms are due to decrease in wind speeds inthe present data climatology in comparison with past dataclimatology Wind steadiness factor values at 0830 IST arecomputed as the ratio of mean resultant wind speed to meanscalar wind (average value of scalar wind speeds) expressed in and the two slot climatologies are made Wind steadinessfactor is a general meteorological technique in order to derivethe quantitative estimate of steadiness of wind direction[27] The feature of losing controllability of blowing windsfrom a specific direction (computed from wind steadiness)as the demand of a particular season might be justified asa result of heat island effect of the very fast developingurbanisation hardly 8 km East South East of the observatoryand the increasing vehicle populations and thereby drasticmodifications in at 0830 IST observations which belongto land breeze prevalence over the station in the non-SWmonsoonal months (up to a maximum of 20 decrease)Throughout the day strong seabreeze is in prevalence in theSW monsoon months Even in the SW monsoon which isdominantly associated with unidirectional wind flow slightdeteriorations in the steadiness of the wind directions haveobserved Both the above observations brought out thephenomenal changes in the steadiness of offshorewinds (landbreeze) at 0830 IST during the non-SW monsoonal monthsat greater extend and onshore wind (sea breeze) at 0830 ISTduring the SW monsoon steadiness in smaller grades Thefeature of very prominent decrease in direction steadinessin preset data to the past is clearly detected As negative Δdominance exists in the non-SW monsoon months wherechange over of land-sea breezes are so pronounced for thestation this observation may be further studied in order tocheck any possible modifications in the meso-scale meteoro-logical phenomena like sealand breeze thunderstorms dueto associated thermal and moisture environment changes

Visibility and cloud climatologies are also studied Asthese observational procedures are non-instrumental thedata is too subjective and quality observation is solely vested

260265270275280285290295300305

Tem

pera

ture

(∘C)

(a)

00040812162024

Date

Stan

dard

devi

atio

n (∘

C)

1964ndash19931979ndash2008

Jan

1 10 20 10 20M

ar 1 10 20

Apr

1 10 20M

ay 1 20

Jun

1 10 20Ju

l 1 10 20A

ug 1 10 20

Sep

1 10

Oct

1 10 20N

ov 1 10 20

Dec

1 10 20 D

ec 3

1

(b)

Figure 2 (a) Mean daily temperature climatologies in 1964ndash19931979ndash2008 and their differences along with (b) standard deviationof corresponding climatologies

on the experience of the weather observer The observationshows better visibility codes in the present data climatologyA visibility code of 96 and above signifies that a well-definedobject (like a mobile phone tower) at least 1 km far can bedistinctly differentiable Among various cloud climatologydominant positiveΔ values are existed in high clouds throughout the year whichmay be pointed out as one of the reason forsubdued albedo effect which enhances greenhouse effect and

Journal of Climatology 9

50556065707580859095

100105110115120125

Tem

pera

ture

rang

e (∘ C)

(a)

0004081216202428

Date

Stan

dard

devi

atio

n(∘

C)

1964ndash19931979ndash2008

Jan

1 10 20 10 20M

ar 1 10 20

Apr

1 10 20M

ay 1 20

Jun

1 10 20Ju

l 1 10 20A

ug 1 10 20

Sep

1 10

Oct

1 10 20N

ov 1 10 20

Dec

1 10 20 D

ec 3

1

(b)

Figure 3 (a) Mean daily temperature range climatologies in 1964ndash1993 1979ndash2008 and their differences along with (b) standarddeviation of corresponding climatologies

285290295300305310315320325330335340345350

Max

imum

tem

pera

ture

(∘C)

(a)

00040812162024

Jan

1 10 20 10 20M

ar 1 10 20

Apr 1 10 20

May

1 20Ju

n 1 10 20

Jul 1 10 20

Aug

1 10 20Se

p 1 10

Oct

1 10 20N

ov 1 10 20

Dec

1 10 20 D

ec 3

1

Date

Stan

dard

devi

atio

n(∘

C)

1964ndash19931979ndash2008

(b)

Figure 4 (a) Maximum daily temperature climatologies in 1964ndash1993 1979ndash2008 and their differences along with (b) standarddeviation of corresponding climatologies

200205210215220225230235240245250255260265

Min

imum

tem

pera

ture

(∘C)

(a)

00040812162024

Date

Stan

dard

devi

atio

n(∘

C)

1964ndash19931979ndash2008

Jan

1 10 20Fe

b 1 10 20

Mar

1 10 20A

pr 1 10 20

May

1 10 20Ju

n 1 10 20

Jul 1 10 20

Aug

1 10 20Se

p 1 10 20

Oct

1 10 20N

ov 1 10 20

Dec

1 10 20 D

ec 3

1

(b)

Figure 5 (a) Minimum daily temperature climatologies in 1964ndash1993 1979ndash2008 and their differences along with (b) standarddeviation of corresponding climatologies

0102030405060708090100

Less than zero Zero Greater than zero0

20406080

100120140160180200220240260280300320340360

Occ

urre

nces

(day

s)

Daily max tempDaily min temp

Daily mean tempRange

Occ

urre

nces

()

Figure 6 Difference statistics for 365 days between present data andpast data on daily maximum minimum mean temperatures andrange in temperature within a day

hereby surface temperature escalationThis may be the resultof number of high cloud types (Ci and Cc) are less comparedto the varieties of low and middle cloud types which enableseasy estimation for the observer while making counts onhigh clouds The increase in high cloud climatology valuesin present data may be the result of increase in air trafficresulted contrails over the region which results an increasein cirrus cloud formations due to tropical dynamics unlike

10 Journal of Climatology

271273275277279281283285

Mea

n te

mpe

ratu

re (∘

C)

101214161820

Stan

dard

devi

atio

n(∘

C)

dydx = 0013

r = 0891

(a)

minus10minus08minus06minus04minus02

00204060810

Tem

pera

ture

anom

aly

(∘C)

1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010(year)

dydx = 0013

r = 0891

Mean temperature11pt soothed line

Fitted lineStandard deviation

(b)

Figure 7 (a) Yearly mean temperature along with standard devia-tion and (b) anomaly

308312316320324328

1517192123252729dydx = 0012

r = 0725

Max

imum

tem

pera

ture

(∘C)

Stan

dard

devi

atio

n(∘

C)

(a)

minus12minus08minus04

0040812

1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010(year)

dydx = 0012

r = 0725

Tem

pera

ture

anom

aly

(∘C)

Standard deviationFitted line

11pt soothed lineMaximum temperature

(b)

Figure 8 (a) Yearly mean maximum temperature along withstandard deviation and (b) anomaly

microphysical processes in mid-latitudes as in Minnis et al[28] Zerefos et al [29] Eleftheratos et al [30] have studiedthe variability of cirrus clouds over the tropics governedby the activity of El Nino Southern Oscillation the QuasiBiennial Oscillation and solar activity Possible radiationbudget alterations modifications at the time of occurrenceof minimum and maximum temperatures are to be criticallyexamined as a part of future investigations Prominent twomaxima (secondarymaximum is very shallower compared to

dydx = 0014

r = 0952

226230234238242246

1012141618202224

Min

imum

tem

pera

ture

(∘C)

Stan

dard

dev

iatio

n(∘

C)

(a)

minus12minus08minus04

0040812

1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

dydx = 0014

r = 0952

(year)

Standard deviationFitted line11pt soothed lineMinimum temperature

Tem

pera

ture

anom

aly

(∘C)

(b)

Figure 9 (a) Yearly mean minimum temperature along withstandard deviation and (b) anomaly

dydx = 0002

r = 0190

1620242832

Stan

dard

dev

iatio

n

6670747882869094

Tem

pera

ture

rang

e(∘ C)

(a)

minus12minus08minus04

0040812

dydx = 0002

r = 0190

1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

Tem

pera

ture

rang

ean

omal

y(∘

C)

(year)

Temperature range11pt soothed line

Fitted lineStandard deviation

(b)

Figure 10 (a) Yearly mean temperature range along with standarddeviation and (b) anomaly

the primary) and two minima were seen in middle high andtotal cloud climatology

33 Mean Daily Climatology in Temperature Mean of dailymaximum minimum mean and range in temperaturebetween daily maximum and minimum temperatures arecomputed and depicted for the 365 days in a year (Figures2 3 4 and 5) along with their standard deviations Theincrease inmean daily values in present data temperatures arequite obvious and standard deviation values are fallen within

Journal of Climatology 11

(year)

123456789

101112

(mon

th)

1964 1966 1968 1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008

No data

20181614121008060402minus00minus02minus04minus06minus08minus10minus12minus14minus16minus18minus20

(∘C)

Figure 11 Maximum temperature anomaly

27∘C for all the four mean daily climatologies A differencestatistics for 365 days between present data to past data ismade and is shown in Figure 6 Out of 365 days more than80 mean daily maximum minimum and mean tempera-tures are distributed as greater than zero occurrences in thedifference statistics An elevated frequency of occurrence ofmore than 65 under less than zero class is a concrete featurewhich implies that the range amongmaximumandminimumtemperature is alarmingly diminishing

34 Interannual Variability Inter annual variability has crit-ically examined for annual mean of minimum maximumand mean temperatures annual rainfall in the SW and NEmonsoon over the station and for theKerala State and averageannual surface pressure in the SW and NE monsoons forthe station Each inter annual variability data has undergonean 11 year moving average with end point extrapolation tillthe raw data availability to bring out long term trend andthe trend line also has shown in each inter annual variabilityfigures similar to Krishnakumar et al [22] for the interannualvariability of rainfall over Kerala Interpolated values areobtained for each year from the trend and such a data setobtained has been subjected to statistical significant testinterpolated data has not taken for a particular year if theraw data point is missing for the corresponding year Thismethod has enabled no reduction in the degrees of freedom(df ) To confirm the statistical significance on various 11year moving averaged data and also to assess the strength ofsample correlation coefficient (119903) linear regression t-test werecarried out and the results are presented (Table 6) Generallystrong and significant linear trend variations are observedEven though linear trends of maximum and minimumtemperatures have shown strong and significant statisticaltrends the derived variable-temperature range has resulteda weak and insignificant test statisticThis may be statisticallyinferred as a variable derived out of two variables whichfavours strong and significant test statistic separately need notshow the same test static of strong and significant

341 Interannual Variability in Temperature To assess theinterannual variability with temperature annual mean min-imum mean maximum and mean of mean temperaturesare found out for each year from 1964 to 2008 Also to

ascertain deviation from the normal each yearly mean valueis deducted from the mean of the entire values available forpresent data and thereby extracted the anomaly in tempera-ture Mean and standard deviation of daily mean maximumminimum and daily temperature range are computed for ayear and depicted in Figures 7 8 9 and 10 The fitted lineartrend line slope (dydx) as well as correlation coefficient (119903)values are annotated in graphs It is seen that from bothmeandaily temperature as well as from the maximum temperaturean abrupt prominent shift or a discernible upward trendis occurred after 1976 may be like the ldquoclimate shiftrdquo asstated by Trenberth [24] The 45 year rate in mean dailymaximum andminimum are obtained as +0585∘C +0540∘Cand +0630∘C respectively or with decadal rates of (+013 plusmn001)∘C (+012 plusmn 002)∘C and (+014 plusmn 00)∘C accordingly Inthe obtained value for the global mean surface temperatureas a whole (+007 plusmn 002)∘C surface temperatures over landhave risen at about double the ocean rate after 1979 (morethan (+027 plusmn 006)∘C per decade versus (+013 plusmn 004)∘Cper decade) as per the Trenberth et al [31] From 1950 to2004 the global land trend in diurnal temperature range wasextracted as negative (minus007∘C per decade) although tropicalareas are still underrepresented [31] Kumar et al [32] showedtrends of increase in diurnal temperature range significantincrease in annual maximum temperature and practicallytrendless annual minimum temperature over India in thelast century Our inter annual variability results coincidemostly with former studied data period which supports thedecrease of diurnal temperature range and the same is veryvivid from Figure 6 discussed earlier It infers that for thistropical coastal station the obtained decadal rate of (+0130plusmn001)∘C which is in agreement with global ocean rate maybe due to the station being coastal in origin The errorvalue reduction by plusmn003∘C for TERLS can be due to morestabilized single station data Also rate of increase in trend forminimum temperature is high in comparison to maximumtemperature A decreasing trend in maximum temperature isnoticed after 2005 with decreasing standard deviation valuesThis observation might be correct as a result of shifting theobservatory since 1964 to hardly 30m towards north in 2005were smooth and free sea-breeze flow which enables abruptreach of maximum temperature in the diurnal course aroundthe time of sea breeze onset The feature of attaining themaximum temperature of the day around the time of onset of

12 Journal of Climatology

Table 6 Linear trends of 11 year moving averaged data on various inter-annual variability Level of significance was choosen at 005 toread out critical 119905 values (119905

119888

) corresponding to the degree of freedom (df ) If 119903 gt 05 strong 119903 lt 05 weak 119905 gt 119905119888

significant and 119905 lt 119905119888

notsignificant

No Interannualvariability in 119903

Slope (119889119910119889119909) plusmnerror Calculated 119905 df Comments Data missing

1 Mean temperature 0891 0013 plusmn 0001 1208154 38Strong and

significant (Figures7(a) and 7(b))

1974 1975 19761982 and 1992

2 Mean maximumtemperature 0725 00121 plusmn 0002 650392 38

Strong andsignificant

(Figures 8(a) and 8(b)

1974 1975 19761982 and 1992

3 Mean minimumtemperature 0952 0014 plusmn 0000 1929677 38

Strong andsignificant

(Figures 9(a) and9(b))

1974 1975 19761982 and 1992

4 Mean temperaturerange minus0190 minus0002 plusmn 0002 minus119078 38

Weak and notsignificant

(Figure 10(a))

1974 1975 19761982 and 1992

5South West

monsoon rainfall(Thumba)

minus0477 minus2145 plusmn 0616 minus3483 41 Weak and significant(Figure 14) 1964 1998

6North East

monsoon rainfall(Thumba)

0848 3928 plusmn 0393 10000 39 Strong and significant(Figure 15)

1964 1977 1992and 1998

7South West

monsoon rainfall(Kerala)

minus0721 minus6149 plusmn 0934 minus6587 40 Strong and significant(Figure 16)

1964 2007 and2008

8North East

monsoon rainfall(Kerala)

0737 3430 plusmn 0491 6986 41 Strong and significant(Figure 17) 1964 2008

9South West

monsoon surfacepressure

0445 0006 plusmn 0002 2899 34 Weak and significant(Figure 18) 1964 to 1972

10North East

monsoon surfacepressure

minus0616 0010 plusmn 0002 minus4555 34 Strong and significant(Figure 19) 1964 to 1972

123456789

101112

(mon

th)

1964 1966 1968 1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008

No data

20181614121008060402minus00minus02minus04minus06minus08minus10minus12minus14minus16minus18minus20

(∘C)

Figure 12 Minimum temperature anomaly

sea breeze is known [33] As the station is of coastal in originthe occurrence of daily maximum temperature is very muchlinked to the setting and strong establishment of sea breezefront towards the land areas

Mean monthly anomaly structures in minimum max-imum and mean temperatures are presented in time sec-tion contour diagrams (Figures 11 12 and 13) All contour

depictions show well-marked temperature increase duringthe course of years and are so pronounced after 1976

342 Interannual Variability in SW and NE Monsoon Rain-fall and Surface Pressure Interannual variability in rainfalland surface pressure particularly for SW monsoon and NEmonsoon are studied A decrease in trend in SW monsoon

Journal of Climatology 13

123456789

101112

(mon

th)

(year)1964 1966 1968 1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008

No data

14121008060402

(∘C)

minus00minus02minus04minus06minus08minus10minus12minus14minus16minus18minus20minus22

Figure 13 Mean temperature anomaly

300400500600700800900

100011001200130014001500

1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010(year)

Rain

fall

(mm

)

dydx = minus2145

r = minus0477

Figure 14 South West monsoon rainfall over Thumba

(year)

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1000

1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

Rain

fall

(mm

)

dydx = 3928

r = 0848

Figure 15 North East monsoon rainfall over Thumba

and an increase in trend in NE monsoons are the observedfeatures over the station with decadal variability of (minus215 plusmn62)mm and (+393 plusmn 39)mm respectively (Figures 14and 15) Analysis by considering initial rainfall values (atthe beginning year on the fitted straight line) of SouthWest monsoon North East monsoon corresponding slopeof them as 817822mm 296535mm minus215mmdecade and

(year)

1000

1250

1500

1750

2000

2250

2500

2750

3000

3250

1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

Rain

fall

(mm

)

dydx = minus6149r = minus0721

Figure 16 South West monsoon rainfall over Kerala

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1000

1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010(year)

Rain

fall

(mm

)

r = 0737

dydx = 3430

Figure 17 North East monsoon rainfall over Kerala

393mmdecade respectively shows the likelihood exceedof North East monsoon rainfall over South West monsoonover this region after the year 2050 if the current trendcontinues Similar analyses are carried out on the slot 1965to 2007 for the Kerala meteorological subdivision from thelongest instrumental rainfall series of the Indian regions(1813ndash2006) ([34] httpwwwtropmetresin) The actualrainfall amount over Kerala during 2007 is obtained from the

14 Journal of Climatology

10070100751008010085100901009510100

Pres

sure

(mb)

dydx = 00061r = 04452

(a)

101214161820

1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008100012501500175020002250

Standard deviationNumber of observations

(year)

Stan

dard

de

viat

ion

(mb)

No

of o

bser

vatio

ns

(b)

Figure 18 (a) Interannual variability in surface pressure for SouthWest monsoon season along with (b) standard deviation andnumber of observations

100801008510090100951010010105101101011510120

Pres

sure

(mb)

dydx = minus0010r = minus0616

(a)

10

15

20

25

1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008500700900110013001500

Standard deviationNo of observations

(year)

Stan

dard

de

viat

ion

(mb)

No

of o

bser

vatio

ns

(b)

Figure 19 (a) Interannual variability in surface pressure for NorthEastmonsoon season alongwith (b) standard deviation and numberof observations

quarterly journal theMAUSAM (July 2008 andOctober 2008issues) Decadal variations show a decreasing trend in SWmonsoon by (minus615 plusmn 93)mm and increasing trend in NEmonsoon by (+340 plusmn 49)mm (Figures 16 and 17)

Interannual variability in surface pressure was derivedand depicted for SW monsoon (Figure 18) and NE monsoon(Figure 19) For this every hourly data available since 1973

was subjected to mean monthly value computation Numberof observations available ranges from 1100 to 2245 in SWmonsoon and 500 to 1495 in NE monsoon respectivelyand provided along with the standard deviation values inthe above figures Since atmospheric pressure is a highlystabilized property over a region for a particular season thedecadal trend variability observed is (+006 plusmn 002)mb and(ndash010plusmn002)mb for SWmonsoon andNEmonsoon respec-tively The positive (increase) and negative (decrease) inter-annual trends observed in SW monsoon and NE monsoonrespectively might have contributed possible implications inthe development of associated synoptic scale meteorologicalsystems (position and orientation of troughsridges and lowpressures) and thereby corresponding decrease and increasein SWmonsoon and NE monsoon rainfall trends

4 Conclusion

Long-term surface meteorological records from TERLS werecollected and analysed to study the long-term changes inoverall climatology climatology pertained to a particulartime of observation mean daily climatology in temperatureinterannual variability in temperature interannual variabilityin SW andNEmonsoon rainfall andmeanmonthly anomalystructure in temperature Results on various analyses showstrong and vivid features contributed by climate change Thesalient features observed contributed by climate change are asfollows

(1) All the temperatures show increase in their behaviourwith slight decrease in RH between the presentclimatology and past climatology

(2) Steadiness of wind decreases especially in non-SWmonsoon months which gives an indirect signatureof possible modifications in meso-scale systems

(3) High cloud climatology increases and thereby proba-ble modifications in radiation budget time of occur-rence of maximum and minimum temperatures

(4) Daily statistics for 365 days show more than 80exceedance in present climatology in comparison topast in minimum maximum andmean temperature

(5) Interannual variability analysis in mean temperaturefor this tropical coastal station shows +13∘C100 yearswhich is same as that of global ocean rate

(6) Observed interannual rainfall variability in SWmon-soon and North East monsoon shows decrease intrend by ndash2145mmdecade and increase in trendby +393mmdecade respectively Prognosis on thisobservation points out the likelihood exceedance ofNE monsoon rainfall over the South West monsoonafter the year 2050 for the station But it is prejudicialto infer that the rainfall increase in NE monsoon cancompensate the forecasted decrease in SWmonsoonsince NE monsoon is mostly of heavy rainfall innature as a result of meso-scale convective systemsSuch rainfall runoff is very fast than the slow waterinfiltration feature in association with SW monsoon

Journal of Climatology 15

rainfall which is essential for irrigation and agricul-tural needs

(7) Decadal variability in surface pressure has shown+006mb and minus010mb for SW monsoon and NEmonsoon respectively

The imprints due to climate change on various meteoro-logical parameters over this coastal station proved that theregion also faces vulnerable situation due to the phenom-ena and therefore necessary engineeringmethodssocioeco-nomic steps are to be undertaken

Acknowledgments

The availability of this unique data for a continuous periodof 45 years is the outcome of concerted and whole heartedefforts put in by the staffs of TERLSIndia MeteorologicalDepartment It is a pleasure to acknowledge with esteemedgratitude the team that worked since 1963 at the TERLSThumba whose efforts have yielded the voluminous uniquedata bank which is available for investigations The authorsare extremely grateful to Dr K Krishnamoorthy DirectorSpace Physics Laboratory VSSC and the reviewers for theirvaluable comments that helped to improve the paper to thefinal form

References

[1] N Oreskes ldquoThe scientific consensus on climatic changerdquoScience vol 306 p 1686 2004

[2] H Ayyar Effect of Pollution on Weather Science ReporterCouncil of Scientific and Industrial Research (CSIR) 1973

[3] K Rupa Kumar A K Sahai K Krishna Kumar et al ldquoHigh-resolution climate change scenarios for India for the 21stcenturyrdquo Current Science vol 90 no 3 pp 334ndash345 2006

[4] P Brohan J J Kennedy I Harris S F B Tett and P DJones ldquoUncertainty estimates in regional and global observedtemperature changes a new data set from 1850rdquo Journal ofGeophysical Research D vol 111 no 12 Article IDD12106 2006

[5] T M Smith and R W Reynolds ldquoA global merged land-air-sea surface temperature reconstruction based on historicalobservations (1880ndash1997)rdquo Journal of Climate vol 18 no 12 pp2021ndash2036 2005

[6] K M Lugina P Y Groisman K Y Vinnikov V V Koknaevaand N A Speranskaya ldquoMonthly surface air temperature timeseries area-averaged over the 30-degree latitudinal belts of theglobe 1881-2004 In Trends a compendium of data on globalchangerdquo Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Centre OakRidge National Laboratory US Department of Energy OakRidge TennUSA 2005 httpcdiacesdornlgovtrendstempluginaluginahtml

[7] J Hansen R RuedyM Sato et al ldquoA closer look atUnited Statesand global surface temperature changerdquo Journal of GeophysicalResearch D vol 106 no 20 pp 23947ndash23963 2001

[8] S Solomon D Quin M Manning et al ldquoContribution ofworking group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the IPCCrdquoTech Rep IPCC-AR4 2007

[9] R C Balling Jr and S W Brazel ldquoRecent changes in PhoenixArizona summertime diurnal precipitation patternsrdquo Theoreti-cal and Applied Climatology vol 38 no 1 pp 50ndash54 1987

[10] R Bornstein and Q Lin ldquoUrban heat islands and summertimeconvective thunderstorms in Atlanta three case studiesrdquoAtmo-spheric Environment vol 34 no 3 pp 507ndash516 2000

[11] P G Dixon and T L Mote ldquoPatterns and cause of Atlandarsquosurban heat island-initiated precipitationrdquo Journal of AppliedMeteorology vol 42 pp 1273ndash1284 2003

[12] F Fujibe ldquoLong-term surface wind changes in the Tokyometropolitan area in the afternoon of sunny days in the warmseasonrdquo Journal of the Meteorological Society of Japan vol 81no 1 pp 141ndash149 2003

[13] T Inoue and F Kimura ldquoUrban effects on low-level cloudsaround the Tokyo metropolitan area on clear summer daysrdquoGeophysical Research Letters vol 31 no 5 Article ID L051032004

[14] JM ShepherdH Pierce andA J Negri ldquoRainfallmodificationby major urban areas observations from spaceborne rain radaron the TRMM satelliterdquo Journal of Applied Meteorology vol 41no 7 pp 689ndash701 2002

[15] C Price SMichaelides S Pashiardis and P Alpert ldquoLong termchanges in diurnal temperature range in Cyprusrdquo AtmosphericResearch vol 51 no 2 pp 85ndash98 1999

[16] H N Singh S D Patil S D Bansod and N Singh ldquoSeasonalvariability in mean sea level pressure extremes over the Indianregionrdquo Atmospheric Research vol 101 no 1-2 pp 102ndash111 2011

[17] J Kingwell J Shimizu K Narita H Kawabata and I ShimizuldquoWeather factors affecting rocket operations a review and casehistoryrdquo American Meteorological Society vol 72 pp 778ndash7931991

[18] R E Turner and C K Hill Terrestrial Environment (Climatic)Guidlines for Use in Aerospace Vehicle Development 1982 Revi-sion Technical Memor 82473 National Aeronautics and SpaceAdministration 1982

[19] ldquoSpace Research in Indiardquo in Proceedings of the 38th COSPARMeeting pp 199ndash204 Bremen Germeny 2010

[20] P V Joseph and A Simon ldquoWeakening trend of the southwestmonsoon current through peninsular India from 1950 to thepresentrdquo Current Science vol 89 no 4 pp 687ndash694 2005

[21] S K Dash J R Kumar and M S Shekhar ldquoOn the decreasingfrequency of monsoon depressions over the Indian regionrdquoCurrent Science vol 86 no 10 pp 1404ndash1411 2004

[22] K N Krishnakumar G S L H V Prasada Rao and C SGopakumar ldquoRainfall trends in twentieth century over KeralaIndiardquo Atmospheric Environment vol 43 no 11 pp 1940ndash19442009

[23] National Council of Educational Research and Training(NCERT) India Text book of physicsmdashpart I for class 11 2006

[24] K E Trenberth ldquoRecent observed interdecadal climate changesin the Northern Hemisphererdquo Bulletin of the American Meteo-rological Society vol 71 no 7 pp 988ndash993 1990

[25] T K Karl H F Diaz and G Kukla ldquoUrbanization its detectionand effect in the United States climate recordrdquo Journal ofClimate vol 1 pp 1099ndash1123 1988

[26] M Rebetez andM Beniston ldquoChanges in sunshine duration arecorrelated with changes in daily temperature range this centuryan analysis of Swiss climatological datardquo Geophysical ResearchLetters vol 25 no 19 pp 3611ndash3613 1998

[27] K V S Namboodiri P K Dileep and K Mammen ldquoWindsteadiness up to 35 km and its variability before the SouthWestMonsoon onset and the withdrawalrdquoMausam vol 63 pp 275ndash282 2012

16 Journal of Climatology

[28] PMinnis A J Kirk P Rabindra and P Dung ldquoContrails cirrustrends and climaterdquo Journal of Climate vol 17 pp 1671ndash16852004

[29] C S Zerefos K Eleftheratos D S Balis P Zanis G Tselioudisand C Meleti ldquoEvidence of impact of aviation on cirrus cloudformationrdquoAtmospheric Chemistry and Physics vol 3 no 5 pp1633ndash1644 2003

[30] K Eleftheratos C S Zerefos C Varotsos and I KapsomenakisldquoInterannual variability of cirrus clouds in the tropics in elnino southern oscillation (ENSO) regions based on interna-tional satellite cloud climatology project (ISCCP) satellite datardquoInternational Journal of Remote Sensing vol 32 no 21 pp 6395ndash6405 2011

[31] K E Trenberth P D Jones and P Ambenje ldquoObservationssurface and climate changerdquo in Climate Change 2007 ThePhysical Science Basis Contribution of working group I to theFourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel onClimate Change S Solomon D Qin and M Manning EdsCambridge University Press Cambridge UK 2007

[32] K R Kumar K K Kumar and G B Pant ldquoDiurnal asymmetryof surface temperature trends over Indiardquo Geophysical ResearchLetters vol 21 no 8 pp 677ndash680 1994

[33] T R Sivaramakrishnan and P S Prakash Rao ldquoSea-breezefeatures over Sriharikota Indiardquo Meteorological Magazine vol118 no 1400 pp 64ndash67 1989

[34] NA SontakkeN Singh andHN Singh ldquoInstrumental periodrainfall series of the Indian region (AD 1813ndash2005) revisedreconstruction update and analysisrdquoHolocene vol 18 no 7 pp1055ndash1066 2008

Submit your manuscripts athttpwwwhindawicom

Forestry ResearchInternational Journal of

Hindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

Environmental and Public Health

Journal of

Hindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

Hindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

EcosystemsJournal of

Hindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

MeteorologyAdvances in

EcologyInternational Journal of

Hindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

Marine BiologyJournal of

Hindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

Hindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom

Applied ampEnvironmentalSoil Science

Volume 2014

Advances in

Hindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

Environmental Chemistry

Atmospheric SciencesInternational Journal of

Hindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

Hindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

Waste ManagementJournal of

Hindawi Publishing Corporation httpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

International Journal of

Geophysics

Hindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

Geological ResearchJournal of

EarthquakesJournal of

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BiodiversityInternational Journal of

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ScientificaHindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

OceanographyInternational Journal of

Hindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

The Scientific World JournalHindawi Publishing Corporation httpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

Journal of Computational Environmental SciencesHindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

Hindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

ClimatologyJournal of

Page 8: Research Article Climatic Variation at Thumba Equatorial Rocket Launching Station, India · 2016. 8. 22. · Research Article Climatic Variation at Thumba Equatorial Rocket Launching

8 Journal of Climatology

Table 5 Climatology and Δ of wind speed (scalar) wind speed (resultant) and wind steadiness factor

MonthWind speed (scalar)(0830 IST) msminus1

Wind speed (resultant)(0830 IST) msminus1

Wind steadiness factor(0830 IST) ()

1964ndash1993 1979ndash2008 Δ 1979ndash2008 Δ 1964ndash1993 1979ndash2008 Δ

JAN 104 075 minus029 071 033 minus038 6889 4448 minus2441FEB 107 081 minus026 073 038 minus035 6795 4736 minus2059MAR 121 100 minus021 083 056 minus027 6849 5615 minus1234APR 129 100 minus029 092 063 minus029 7146 6315 minus831MAY 145 104 minus041 114 075 minus039 7840 7244 minus596JUN 149 109 minus040 103 08 minus023 6897 7365 +468JUL 168 135 minus033 115 094 minus021 6808 6960 +152AUG 161 131 minus030 136 105 minus031 8468 7999 minus469SEP 157 110 minus047 117 081 minus036 7457 7406 minus051OCT 110 082 minus028 064 040 minus024 5869 4926 minus943NOV 097 074 minus023 049 023 minus026 5029 3117 minus1912DEC 101 075 minus026 067 037 minus030 6644 4888 minus1756DEC JAN and FEB winter MAR APR and MAY summer JUN JUL AUG and SEP SWmonsoon OCT NOV NE monsoon

the order 05ms are due to decrease in wind speeds inthe present data climatology in comparison with past dataclimatology Wind steadiness factor values at 0830 IST arecomputed as the ratio of mean resultant wind speed to meanscalar wind (average value of scalar wind speeds) expressed in and the two slot climatologies are made Wind steadinessfactor is a general meteorological technique in order to derivethe quantitative estimate of steadiness of wind direction[27] The feature of losing controllability of blowing windsfrom a specific direction (computed from wind steadiness)as the demand of a particular season might be justified asa result of heat island effect of the very fast developingurbanisation hardly 8 km East South East of the observatoryand the increasing vehicle populations and thereby drasticmodifications in at 0830 IST observations which belongto land breeze prevalence over the station in the non-SWmonsoonal months (up to a maximum of 20 decrease)Throughout the day strong seabreeze is in prevalence in theSW monsoon months Even in the SW monsoon which isdominantly associated with unidirectional wind flow slightdeteriorations in the steadiness of the wind directions haveobserved Both the above observations brought out thephenomenal changes in the steadiness of offshorewinds (landbreeze) at 0830 IST during the non-SW monsoonal monthsat greater extend and onshore wind (sea breeze) at 0830 ISTduring the SW monsoon steadiness in smaller grades Thefeature of very prominent decrease in direction steadinessin preset data to the past is clearly detected As negative Δdominance exists in the non-SW monsoon months wherechange over of land-sea breezes are so pronounced for thestation this observation may be further studied in order tocheck any possible modifications in the meso-scale meteoro-logical phenomena like sealand breeze thunderstorms dueto associated thermal and moisture environment changes

Visibility and cloud climatologies are also studied Asthese observational procedures are non-instrumental thedata is too subjective and quality observation is solely vested

260265270275280285290295300305

Tem

pera

ture

(∘C)

(a)

00040812162024

Date

Stan

dard

devi

atio

n (∘

C)

1964ndash19931979ndash2008

Jan

1 10 20 10 20M

ar 1 10 20

Apr

1 10 20M

ay 1 20

Jun

1 10 20Ju

l 1 10 20A

ug 1 10 20

Sep

1 10

Oct

1 10 20N

ov 1 10 20

Dec

1 10 20 D

ec 3

1

(b)

Figure 2 (a) Mean daily temperature climatologies in 1964ndash19931979ndash2008 and their differences along with (b) standard deviationof corresponding climatologies

on the experience of the weather observer The observationshows better visibility codes in the present data climatologyA visibility code of 96 and above signifies that a well-definedobject (like a mobile phone tower) at least 1 km far can bedistinctly differentiable Among various cloud climatologydominant positiveΔ values are existed in high clouds throughout the year whichmay be pointed out as one of the reason forsubdued albedo effect which enhances greenhouse effect and

Journal of Climatology 9

50556065707580859095

100105110115120125

Tem

pera

ture

rang

e (∘ C)

(a)

0004081216202428

Date

Stan

dard

devi

atio

n(∘

C)

1964ndash19931979ndash2008

Jan

1 10 20 10 20M

ar 1 10 20

Apr

1 10 20M

ay 1 20

Jun

1 10 20Ju

l 1 10 20A

ug 1 10 20

Sep

1 10

Oct

1 10 20N

ov 1 10 20

Dec

1 10 20 D

ec 3

1

(b)

Figure 3 (a) Mean daily temperature range climatologies in 1964ndash1993 1979ndash2008 and their differences along with (b) standarddeviation of corresponding climatologies

285290295300305310315320325330335340345350

Max

imum

tem

pera

ture

(∘C)

(a)

00040812162024

Jan

1 10 20 10 20M

ar 1 10 20

Apr 1 10 20

May

1 20Ju

n 1 10 20

Jul 1 10 20

Aug

1 10 20Se

p 1 10

Oct

1 10 20N

ov 1 10 20

Dec

1 10 20 D

ec 3

1

Date

Stan

dard

devi

atio

n(∘

C)

1964ndash19931979ndash2008

(b)

Figure 4 (a) Maximum daily temperature climatologies in 1964ndash1993 1979ndash2008 and their differences along with (b) standarddeviation of corresponding climatologies

200205210215220225230235240245250255260265

Min

imum

tem

pera

ture

(∘C)

(a)

00040812162024

Date

Stan

dard

devi

atio

n(∘

C)

1964ndash19931979ndash2008

Jan

1 10 20Fe

b 1 10 20

Mar

1 10 20A

pr 1 10 20

May

1 10 20Ju

n 1 10 20

Jul 1 10 20

Aug

1 10 20Se

p 1 10 20

Oct

1 10 20N

ov 1 10 20

Dec

1 10 20 D

ec 3

1

(b)

Figure 5 (a) Minimum daily temperature climatologies in 1964ndash1993 1979ndash2008 and their differences along with (b) standarddeviation of corresponding climatologies

0102030405060708090100

Less than zero Zero Greater than zero0

20406080

100120140160180200220240260280300320340360

Occ

urre

nces

(day

s)

Daily max tempDaily min temp

Daily mean tempRange

Occ

urre

nces

()

Figure 6 Difference statistics for 365 days between present data andpast data on daily maximum minimum mean temperatures andrange in temperature within a day

hereby surface temperature escalationThis may be the resultof number of high cloud types (Ci and Cc) are less comparedto the varieties of low and middle cloud types which enableseasy estimation for the observer while making counts onhigh clouds The increase in high cloud climatology valuesin present data may be the result of increase in air trafficresulted contrails over the region which results an increasein cirrus cloud formations due to tropical dynamics unlike

10 Journal of Climatology

271273275277279281283285

Mea

n te

mpe

ratu

re (∘

C)

101214161820

Stan

dard

devi

atio

n(∘

C)

dydx = 0013

r = 0891

(a)

minus10minus08minus06minus04minus02

00204060810

Tem

pera

ture

anom

aly

(∘C)

1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010(year)

dydx = 0013

r = 0891

Mean temperature11pt soothed line

Fitted lineStandard deviation

(b)

Figure 7 (a) Yearly mean temperature along with standard devia-tion and (b) anomaly

308312316320324328

1517192123252729dydx = 0012

r = 0725

Max

imum

tem

pera

ture

(∘C)

Stan

dard

devi

atio

n(∘

C)

(a)

minus12minus08minus04

0040812

1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010(year)

dydx = 0012

r = 0725

Tem

pera

ture

anom

aly

(∘C)

Standard deviationFitted line

11pt soothed lineMaximum temperature

(b)

Figure 8 (a) Yearly mean maximum temperature along withstandard deviation and (b) anomaly

microphysical processes in mid-latitudes as in Minnis et al[28] Zerefos et al [29] Eleftheratos et al [30] have studiedthe variability of cirrus clouds over the tropics governedby the activity of El Nino Southern Oscillation the QuasiBiennial Oscillation and solar activity Possible radiationbudget alterations modifications at the time of occurrenceof minimum and maximum temperatures are to be criticallyexamined as a part of future investigations Prominent twomaxima (secondarymaximum is very shallower compared to

dydx = 0014

r = 0952

226230234238242246

1012141618202224

Min

imum

tem

pera

ture

(∘C)

Stan

dard

dev

iatio

n(∘

C)

(a)

minus12minus08minus04

0040812

1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

dydx = 0014

r = 0952

(year)

Standard deviationFitted line11pt soothed lineMinimum temperature

Tem

pera

ture

anom

aly

(∘C)

(b)

Figure 9 (a) Yearly mean minimum temperature along withstandard deviation and (b) anomaly

dydx = 0002

r = 0190

1620242832

Stan

dard

dev

iatio

n

6670747882869094

Tem

pera

ture

rang

e(∘ C)

(a)

minus12minus08minus04

0040812

dydx = 0002

r = 0190

1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

Tem

pera

ture

rang

ean

omal

y(∘

C)

(year)

Temperature range11pt soothed line

Fitted lineStandard deviation

(b)

Figure 10 (a) Yearly mean temperature range along with standarddeviation and (b) anomaly

the primary) and two minima were seen in middle high andtotal cloud climatology

33 Mean Daily Climatology in Temperature Mean of dailymaximum minimum mean and range in temperaturebetween daily maximum and minimum temperatures arecomputed and depicted for the 365 days in a year (Figures2 3 4 and 5) along with their standard deviations Theincrease inmean daily values in present data temperatures arequite obvious and standard deviation values are fallen within

Journal of Climatology 11

(year)

123456789

101112

(mon

th)

1964 1966 1968 1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008

No data

20181614121008060402minus00minus02minus04minus06minus08minus10minus12minus14minus16minus18minus20

(∘C)

Figure 11 Maximum temperature anomaly

27∘C for all the four mean daily climatologies A differencestatistics for 365 days between present data to past data ismade and is shown in Figure 6 Out of 365 days more than80 mean daily maximum minimum and mean tempera-tures are distributed as greater than zero occurrences in thedifference statistics An elevated frequency of occurrence ofmore than 65 under less than zero class is a concrete featurewhich implies that the range amongmaximumandminimumtemperature is alarmingly diminishing

34 Interannual Variability Inter annual variability has crit-ically examined for annual mean of minimum maximumand mean temperatures annual rainfall in the SW and NEmonsoon over the station and for theKerala State and averageannual surface pressure in the SW and NE monsoons forthe station Each inter annual variability data has undergonean 11 year moving average with end point extrapolation tillthe raw data availability to bring out long term trend andthe trend line also has shown in each inter annual variabilityfigures similar to Krishnakumar et al [22] for the interannualvariability of rainfall over Kerala Interpolated values areobtained for each year from the trend and such a data setobtained has been subjected to statistical significant testinterpolated data has not taken for a particular year if theraw data point is missing for the corresponding year Thismethod has enabled no reduction in the degrees of freedom(df ) To confirm the statistical significance on various 11year moving averaged data and also to assess the strength ofsample correlation coefficient (119903) linear regression t-test werecarried out and the results are presented (Table 6) Generallystrong and significant linear trend variations are observedEven though linear trends of maximum and minimumtemperatures have shown strong and significant statisticaltrends the derived variable-temperature range has resulteda weak and insignificant test statisticThis may be statisticallyinferred as a variable derived out of two variables whichfavours strong and significant test statistic separately need notshow the same test static of strong and significant

341 Interannual Variability in Temperature To assess theinterannual variability with temperature annual mean min-imum mean maximum and mean of mean temperaturesare found out for each year from 1964 to 2008 Also to

ascertain deviation from the normal each yearly mean valueis deducted from the mean of the entire values available forpresent data and thereby extracted the anomaly in tempera-ture Mean and standard deviation of daily mean maximumminimum and daily temperature range are computed for ayear and depicted in Figures 7 8 9 and 10 The fitted lineartrend line slope (dydx) as well as correlation coefficient (119903)values are annotated in graphs It is seen that from bothmeandaily temperature as well as from the maximum temperaturean abrupt prominent shift or a discernible upward trendis occurred after 1976 may be like the ldquoclimate shiftrdquo asstated by Trenberth [24] The 45 year rate in mean dailymaximum andminimum are obtained as +0585∘C +0540∘Cand +0630∘C respectively or with decadal rates of (+013 plusmn001)∘C (+012 plusmn 002)∘C and (+014 plusmn 00)∘C accordingly Inthe obtained value for the global mean surface temperatureas a whole (+007 plusmn 002)∘C surface temperatures over landhave risen at about double the ocean rate after 1979 (morethan (+027 plusmn 006)∘C per decade versus (+013 plusmn 004)∘Cper decade) as per the Trenberth et al [31] From 1950 to2004 the global land trend in diurnal temperature range wasextracted as negative (minus007∘C per decade) although tropicalareas are still underrepresented [31] Kumar et al [32] showedtrends of increase in diurnal temperature range significantincrease in annual maximum temperature and practicallytrendless annual minimum temperature over India in thelast century Our inter annual variability results coincidemostly with former studied data period which supports thedecrease of diurnal temperature range and the same is veryvivid from Figure 6 discussed earlier It infers that for thistropical coastal station the obtained decadal rate of (+0130plusmn001)∘C which is in agreement with global ocean rate maybe due to the station being coastal in origin The errorvalue reduction by plusmn003∘C for TERLS can be due to morestabilized single station data Also rate of increase in trend forminimum temperature is high in comparison to maximumtemperature A decreasing trend in maximum temperature isnoticed after 2005 with decreasing standard deviation valuesThis observation might be correct as a result of shifting theobservatory since 1964 to hardly 30m towards north in 2005were smooth and free sea-breeze flow which enables abruptreach of maximum temperature in the diurnal course aroundthe time of sea breeze onset The feature of attaining themaximum temperature of the day around the time of onset of

12 Journal of Climatology

Table 6 Linear trends of 11 year moving averaged data on various inter-annual variability Level of significance was choosen at 005 toread out critical 119905 values (119905

119888

) corresponding to the degree of freedom (df ) If 119903 gt 05 strong 119903 lt 05 weak 119905 gt 119905119888

significant and 119905 lt 119905119888

notsignificant

No Interannualvariability in 119903

Slope (119889119910119889119909) plusmnerror Calculated 119905 df Comments Data missing

1 Mean temperature 0891 0013 plusmn 0001 1208154 38Strong and

significant (Figures7(a) and 7(b))

1974 1975 19761982 and 1992

2 Mean maximumtemperature 0725 00121 plusmn 0002 650392 38

Strong andsignificant

(Figures 8(a) and 8(b)

1974 1975 19761982 and 1992

3 Mean minimumtemperature 0952 0014 plusmn 0000 1929677 38

Strong andsignificant

(Figures 9(a) and9(b))

1974 1975 19761982 and 1992

4 Mean temperaturerange minus0190 minus0002 plusmn 0002 minus119078 38

Weak and notsignificant

(Figure 10(a))

1974 1975 19761982 and 1992

5South West

monsoon rainfall(Thumba)

minus0477 minus2145 plusmn 0616 minus3483 41 Weak and significant(Figure 14) 1964 1998

6North East

monsoon rainfall(Thumba)

0848 3928 plusmn 0393 10000 39 Strong and significant(Figure 15)

1964 1977 1992and 1998

7South West

monsoon rainfall(Kerala)

minus0721 minus6149 plusmn 0934 minus6587 40 Strong and significant(Figure 16)

1964 2007 and2008

8North East

monsoon rainfall(Kerala)

0737 3430 plusmn 0491 6986 41 Strong and significant(Figure 17) 1964 2008

9South West

monsoon surfacepressure

0445 0006 plusmn 0002 2899 34 Weak and significant(Figure 18) 1964 to 1972

10North East

monsoon surfacepressure

minus0616 0010 plusmn 0002 minus4555 34 Strong and significant(Figure 19) 1964 to 1972

123456789

101112

(mon

th)

1964 1966 1968 1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008

No data

20181614121008060402minus00minus02minus04minus06minus08minus10minus12minus14minus16minus18minus20

(∘C)

Figure 12 Minimum temperature anomaly

sea breeze is known [33] As the station is of coastal in originthe occurrence of daily maximum temperature is very muchlinked to the setting and strong establishment of sea breezefront towards the land areas

Mean monthly anomaly structures in minimum max-imum and mean temperatures are presented in time sec-tion contour diagrams (Figures 11 12 and 13) All contour

depictions show well-marked temperature increase duringthe course of years and are so pronounced after 1976

342 Interannual Variability in SW and NE Monsoon Rain-fall and Surface Pressure Interannual variability in rainfalland surface pressure particularly for SW monsoon and NEmonsoon are studied A decrease in trend in SW monsoon

Journal of Climatology 13

123456789

101112

(mon

th)

(year)1964 1966 1968 1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008

No data

14121008060402

(∘C)

minus00minus02minus04minus06minus08minus10minus12minus14minus16minus18minus20minus22

Figure 13 Mean temperature anomaly

300400500600700800900

100011001200130014001500

1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010(year)

Rain

fall

(mm

)

dydx = minus2145

r = minus0477

Figure 14 South West monsoon rainfall over Thumba

(year)

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1000

1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

Rain

fall

(mm

)

dydx = 3928

r = 0848

Figure 15 North East monsoon rainfall over Thumba

and an increase in trend in NE monsoons are the observedfeatures over the station with decadal variability of (minus215 plusmn62)mm and (+393 plusmn 39)mm respectively (Figures 14and 15) Analysis by considering initial rainfall values (atthe beginning year on the fitted straight line) of SouthWest monsoon North East monsoon corresponding slopeof them as 817822mm 296535mm minus215mmdecade and

(year)

1000

1250

1500

1750

2000

2250

2500

2750

3000

3250

1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

Rain

fall

(mm

)

dydx = minus6149r = minus0721

Figure 16 South West monsoon rainfall over Kerala

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1000

1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010(year)

Rain

fall

(mm

)

r = 0737

dydx = 3430

Figure 17 North East monsoon rainfall over Kerala

393mmdecade respectively shows the likelihood exceedof North East monsoon rainfall over South West monsoonover this region after the year 2050 if the current trendcontinues Similar analyses are carried out on the slot 1965to 2007 for the Kerala meteorological subdivision from thelongest instrumental rainfall series of the Indian regions(1813ndash2006) ([34] httpwwwtropmetresin) The actualrainfall amount over Kerala during 2007 is obtained from the

14 Journal of Climatology

10070100751008010085100901009510100

Pres

sure

(mb)

dydx = 00061r = 04452

(a)

101214161820

1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008100012501500175020002250

Standard deviationNumber of observations

(year)

Stan

dard

de

viat

ion

(mb)

No

of o

bser

vatio

ns

(b)

Figure 18 (a) Interannual variability in surface pressure for SouthWest monsoon season along with (b) standard deviation andnumber of observations

100801008510090100951010010105101101011510120

Pres

sure

(mb)

dydx = minus0010r = minus0616

(a)

10

15

20

25

1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008500700900110013001500

Standard deviationNo of observations

(year)

Stan

dard

de

viat

ion

(mb)

No

of o

bser

vatio

ns

(b)

Figure 19 (a) Interannual variability in surface pressure for NorthEastmonsoon season alongwith (b) standard deviation and numberof observations

quarterly journal theMAUSAM (July 2008 andOctober 2008issues) Decadal variations show a decreasing trend in SWmonsoon by (minus615 plusmn 93)mm and increasing trend in NEmonsoon by (+340 plusmn 49)mm (Figures 16 and 17)

Interannual variability in surface pressure was derivedand depicted for SW monsoon (Figure 18) and NE monsoon(Figure 19) For this every hourly data available since 1973

was subjected to mean monthly value computation Numberof observations available ranges from 1100 to 2245 in SWmonsoon and 500 to 1495 in NE monsoon respectivelyand provided along with the standard deviation values inthe above figures Since atmospheric pressure is a highlystabilized property over a region for a particular season thedecadal trend variability observed is (+006 plusmn 002)mb and(ndash010plusmn002)mb for SWmonsoon andNEmonsoon respec-tively The positive (increase) and negative (decrease) inter-annual trends observed in SW monsoon and NE monsoonrespectively might have contributed possible implications inthe development of associated synoptic scale meteorologicalsystems (position and orientation of troughsridges and lowpressures) and thereby corresponding decrease and increasein SWmonsoon and NE monsoon rainfall trends

4 Conclusion

Long-term surface meteorological records from TERLS werecollected and analysed to study the long-term changes inoverall climatology climatology pertained to a particulartime of observation mean daily climatology in temperatureinterannual variability in temperature interannual variabilityin SW andNEmonsoon rainfall andmeanmonthly anomalystructure in temperature Results on various analyses showstrong and vivid features contributed by climate change Thesalient features observed contributed by climate change are asfollows

(1) All the temperatures show increase in their behaviourwith slight decrease in RH between the presentclimatology and past climatology

(2) Steadiness of wind decreases especially in non-SWmonsoon months which gives an indirect signatureof possible modifications in meso-scale systems

(3) High cloud climatology increases and thereby proba-ble modifications in radiation budget time of occur-rence of maximum and minimum temperatures

(4) Daily statistics for 365 days show more than 80exceedance in present climatology in comparison topast in minimum maximum andmean temperature

(5) Interannual variability analysis in mean temperaturefor this tropical coastal station shows +13∘C100 yearswhich is same as that of global ocean rate

(6) Observed interannual rainfall variability in SWmon-soon and North East monsoon shows decrease intrend by ndash2145mmdecade and increase in trendby +393mmdecade respectively Prognosis on thisobservation points out the likelihood exceedance ofNE monsoon rainfall over the South West monsoonafter the year 2050 for the station But it is prejudicialto infer that the rainfall increase in NE monsoon cancompensate the forecasted decrease in SWmonsoonsince NE monsoon is mostly of heavy rainfall innature as a result of meso-scale convective systemsSuch rainfall runoff is very fast than the slow waterinfiltration feature in association with SW monsoon

Journal of Climatology 15

rainfall which is essential for irrigation and agricul-tural needs

(7) Decadal variability in surface pressure has shown+006mb and minus010mb for SW monsoon and NEmonsoon respectively

The imprints due to climate change on various meteoro-logical parameters over this coastal station proved that theregion also faces vulnerable situation due to the phenom-ena and therefore necessary engineeringmethodssocioeco-nomic steps are to be undertaken

Acknowledgments

The availability of this unique data for a continuous periodof 45 years is the outcome of concerted and whole heartedefforts put in by the staffs of TERLSIndia MeteorologicalDepartment It is a pleasure to acknowledge with esteemedgratitude the team that worked since 1963 at the TERLSThumba whose efforts have yielded the voluminous uniquedata bank which is available for investigations The authorsare extremely grateful to Dr K Krishnamoorthy DirectorSpace Physics Laboratory VSSC and the reviewers for theirvaluable comments that helped to improve the paper to thefinal form

References

[1] N Oreskes ldquoThe scientific consensus on climatic changerdquoScience vol 306 p 1686 2004

[2] H Ayyar Effect of Pollution on Weather Science ReporterCouncil of Scientific and Industrial Research (CSIR) 1973

[3] K Rupa Kumar A K Sahai K Krishna Kumar et al ldquoHigh-resolution climate change scenarios for India for the 21stcenturyrdquo Current Science vol 90 no 3 pp 334ndash345 2006

[4] P Brohan J J Kennedy I Harris S F B Tett and P DJones ldquoUncertainty estimates in regional and global observedtemperature changes a new data set from 1850rdquo Journal ofGeophysical Research D vol 111 no 12 Article IDD12106 2006

[5] T M Smith and R W Reynolds ldquoA global merged land-air-sea surface temperature reconstruction based on historicalobservations (1880ndash1997)rdquo Journal of Climate vol 18 no 12 pp2021ndash2036 2005

[6] K M Lugina P Y Groisman K Y Vinnikov V V Koknaevaand N A Speranskaya ldquoMonthly surface air temperature timeseries area-averaged over the 30-degree latitudinal belts of theglobe 1881-2004 In Trends a compendium of data on globalchangerdquo Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Centre OakRidge National Laboratory US Department of Energy OakRidge TennUSA 2005 httpcdiacesdornlgovtrendstempluginaluginahtml

[7] J Hansen R RuedyM Sato et al ldquoA closer look atUnited Statesand global surface temperature changerdquo Journal of GeophysicalResearch D vol 106 no 20 pp 23947ndash23963 2001

[8] S Solomon D Quin M Manning et al ldquoContribution ofworking group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the IPCCrdquoTech Rep IPCC-AR4 2007

[9] R C Balling Jr and S W Brazel ldquoRecent changes in PhoenixArizona summertime diurnal precipitation patternsrdquo Theoreti-cal and Applied Climatology vol 38 no 1 pp 50ndash54 1987

[10] R Bornstein and Q Lin ldquoUrban heat islands and summertimeconvective thunderstorms in Atlanta three case studiesrdquoAtmo-spheric Environment vol 34 no 3 pp 507ndash516 2000

[11] P G Dixon and T L Mote ldquoPatterns and cause of Atlandarsquosurban heat island-initiated precipitationrdquo Journal of AppliedMeteorology vol 42 pp 1273ndash1284 2003

[12] F Fujibe ldquoLong-term surface wind changes in the Tokyometropolitan area in the afternoon of sunny days in the warmseasonrdquo Journal of the Meteorological Society of Japan vol 81no 1 pp 141ndash149 2003

[13] T Inoue and F Kimura ldquoUrban effects on low-level cloudsaround the Tokyo metropolitan area on clear summer daysrdquoGeophysical Research Letters vol 31 no 5 Article ID L051032004

[14] JM ShepherdH Pierce andA J Negri ldquoRainfallmodificationby major urban areas observations from spaceborne rain radaron the TRMM satelliterdquo Journal of Applied Meteorology vol 41no 7 pp 689ndash701 2002

[15] C Price SMichaelides S Pashiardis and P Alpert ldquoLong termchanges in diurnal temperature range in Cyprusrdquo AtmosphericResearch vol 51 no 2 pp 85ndash98 1999

[16] H N Singh S D Patil S D Bansod and N Singh ldquoSeasonalvariability in mean sea level pressure extremes over the Indianregionrdquo Atmospheric Research vol 101 no 1-2 pp 102ndash111 2011

[17] J Kingwell J Shimizu K Narita H Kawabata and I ShimizuldquoWeather factors affecting rocket operations a review and casehistoryrdquo American Meteorological Society vol 72 pp 778ndash7931991

[18] R E Turner and C K Hill Terrestrial Environment (Climatic)Guidlines for Use in Aerospace Vehicle Development 1982 Revi-sion Technical Memor 82473 National Aeronautics and SpaceAdministration 1982

[19] ldquoSpace Research in Indiardquo in Proceedings of the 38th COSPARMeeting pp 199ndash204 Bremen Germeny 2010

[20] P V Joseph and A Simon ldquoWeakening trend of the southwestmonsoon current through peninsular India from 1950 to thepresentrdquo Current Science vol 89 no 4 pp 687ndash694 2005

[21] S K Dash J R Kumar and M S Shekhar ldquoOn the decreasingfrequency of monsoon depressions over the Indian regionrdquoCurrent Science vol 86 no 10 pp 1404ndash1411 2004

[22] K N Krishnakumar G S L H V Prasada Rao and C SGopakumar ldquoRainfall trends in twentieth century over KeralaIndiardquo Atmospheric Environment vol 43 no 11 pp 1940ndash19442009

[23] National Council of Educational Research and Training(NCERT) India Text book of physicsmdashpart I for class 11 2006

[24] K E Trenberth ldquoRecent observed interdecadal climate changesin the Northern Hemisphererdquo Bulletin of the American Meteo-rological Society vol 71 no 7 pp 988ndash993 1990

[25] T K Karl H F Diaz and G Kukla ldquoUrbanization its detectionand effect in the United States climate recordrdquo Journal ofClimate vol 1 pp 1099ndash1123 1988

[26] M Rebetez andM Beniston ldquoChanges in sunshine duration arecorrelated with changes in daily temperature range this centuryan analysis of Swiss climatological datardquo Geophysical ResearchLetters vol 25 no 19 pp 3611ndash3613 1998

[27] K V S Namboodiri P K Dileep and K Mammen ldquoWindsteadiness up to 35 km and its variability before the SouthWestMonsoon onset and the withdrawalrdquoMausam vol 63 pp 275ndash282 2012

16 Journal of Climatology

[28] PMinnis A J Kirk P Rabindra and P Dung ldquoContrails cirrustrends and climaterdquo Journal of Climate vol 17 pp 1671ndash16852004

[29] C S Zerefos K Eleftheratos D S Balis P Zanis G Tselioudisand C Meleti ldquoEvidence of impact of aviation on cirrus cloudformationrdquoAtmospheric Chemistry and Physics vol 3 no 5 pp1633ndash1644 2003

[30] K Eleftheratos C S Zerefos C Varotsos and I KapsomenakisldquoInterannual variability of cirrus clouds in the tropics in elnino southern oscillation (ENSO) regions based on interna-tional satellite cloud climatology project (ISCCP) satellite datardquoInternational Journal of Remote Sensing vol 32 no 21 pp 6395ndash6405 2011

[31] K E Trenberth P D Jones and P Ambenje ldquoObservationssurface and climate changerdquo in Climate Change 2007 ThePhysical Science Basis Contribution of working group I to theFourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel onClimate Change S Solomon D Qin and M Manning EdsCambridge University Press Cambridge UK 2007

[32] K R Kumar K K Kumar and G B Pant ldquoDiurnal asymmetryof surface temperature trends over Indiardquo Geophysical ResearchLetters vol 21 no 8 pp 677ndash680 1994

[33] T R Sivaramakrishnan and P S Prakash Rao ldquoSea-breezefeatures over Sriharikota Indiardquo Meteorological Magazine vol118 no 1400 pp 64ndash67 1989

[34] NA SontakkeN Singh andHN Singh ldquoInstrumental periodrainfall series of the Indian region (AD 1813ndash2005) revisedreconstruction update and analysisrdquoHolocene vol 18 no 7 pp1055ndash1066 2008

Submit your manuscripts athttpwwwhindawicom

Forestry ResearchInternational Journal of

Hindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

Environmental and Public Health

Journal of

Hindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

Hindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

EcosystemsJournal of

Hindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

MeteorologyAdvances in

EcologyInternational Journal of

Hindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

Marine BiologyJournal of

Hindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

Hindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom

Applied ampEnvironmentalSoil Science

Volume 2014

Advances in

Hindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

Environmental Chemistry

Atmospheric SciencesInternational Journal of

Hindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

Hindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

Waste ManagementJournal of

Hindawi Publishing Corporation httpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

International Journal of

Geophysics

Hindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

Geological ResearchJournal of

EarthquakesJournal of

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BiodiversityInternational Journal of

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ScientificaHindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

OceanographyInternational Journal of

Hindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

The Scientific World JournalHindawi Publishing Corporation httpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

Journal of Computational Environmental SciencesHindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

Hindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

ClimatologyJournal of

Page 9: Research Article Climatic Variation at Thumba Equatorial Rocket Launching Station, India · 2016. 8. 22. · Research Article Climatic Variation at Thumba Equatorial Rocket Launching

Journal of Climatology 9

50556065707580859095

100105110115120125

Tem

pera

ture

rang

e (∘ C)

(a)

0004081216202428

Date

Stan

dard

devi

atio

n(∘

C)

1964ndash19931979ndash2008

Jan

1 10 20 10 20M

ar 1 10 20

Apr

1 10 20M

ay 1 20

Jun

1 10 20Ju

l 1 10 20A

ug 1 10 20

Sep

1 10

Oct

1 10 20N

ov 1 10 20

Dec

1 10 20 D

ec 3

1

(b)

Figure 3 (a) Mean daily temperature range climatologies in 1964ndash1993 1979ndash2008 and their differences along with (b) standarddeviation of corresponding climatologies

285290295300305310315320325330335340345350

Max

imum

tem

pera

ture

(∘C)

(a)

00040812162024

Jan

1 10 20 10 20M

ar 1 10 20

Apr 1 10 20

May

1 20Ju

n 1 10 20

Jul 1 10 20

Aug

1 10 20Se

p 1 10

Oct

1 10 20N

ov 1 10 20

Dec

1 10 20 D

ec 3

1

Date

Stan

dard

devi

atio

n(∘

C)

1964ndash19931979ndash2008

(b)

Figure 4 (a) Maximum daily temperature climatologies in 1964ndash1993 1979ndash2008 and their differences along with (b) standarddeviation of corresponding climatologies

200205210215220225230235240245250255260265

Min

imum

tem

pera

ture

(∘C)

(a)

00040812162024

Date

Stan

dard

devi

atio

n(∘

C)

1964ndash19931979ndash2008

Jan

1 10 20Fe

b 1 10 20

Mar

1 10 20A

pr 1 10 20

May

1 10 20Ju

n 1 10 20

Jul 1 10 20

Aug

1 10 20Se

p 1 10 20

Oct

1 10 20N

ov 1 10 20

Dec

1 10 20 D

ec 3

1

(b)

Figure 5 (a) Minimum daily temperature climatologies in 1964ndash1993 1979ndash2008 and their differences along with (b) standarddeviation of corresponding climatologies

0102030405060708090100

Less than zero Zero Greater than zero0

20406080

100120140160180200220240260280300320340360

Occ

urre

nces

(day

s)

Daily max tempDaily min temp

Daily mean tempRange

Occ

urre

nces

()

Figure 6 Difference statistics for 365 days between present data andpast data on daily maximum minimum mean temperatures andrange in temperature within a day

hereby surface temperature escalationThis may be the resultof number of high cloud types (Ci and Cc) are less comparedto the varieties of low and middle cloud types which enableseasy estimation for the observer while making counts onhigh clouds The increase in high cloud climatology valuesin present data may be the result of increase in air trafficresulted contrails over the region which results an increasein cirrus cloud formations due to tropical dynamics unlike

10 Journal of Climatology

271273275277279281283285

Mea

n te

mpe

ratu

re (∘

C)

101214161820

Stan

dard

devi

atio

n(∘

C)

dydx = 0013

r = 0891

(a)

minus10minus08minus06minus04minus02

00204060810

Tem

pera

ture

anom

aly

(∘C)

1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010(year)

dydx = 0013

r = 0891

Mean temperature11pt soothed line

Fitted lineStandard deviation

(b)

Figure 7 (a) Yearly mean temperature along with standard devia-tion and (b) anomaly

308312316320324328

1517192123252729dydx = 0012

r = 0725

Max

imum

tem

pera

ture

(∘C)

Stan

dard

devi

atio

n(∘

C)

(a)

minus12minus08minus04

0040812

1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010(year)

dydx = 0012

r = 0725

Tem

pera

ture

anom

aly

(∘C)

Standard deviationFitted line

11pt soothed lineMaximum temperature

(b)

Figure 8 (a) Yearly mean maximum temperature along withstandard deviation and (b) anomaly

microphysical processes in mid-latitudes as in Minnis et al[28] Zerefos et al [29] Eleftheratos et al [30] have studiedthe variability of cirrus clouds over the tropics governedby the activity of El Nino Southern Oscillation the QuasiBiennial Oscillation and solar activity Possible radiationbudget alterations modifications at the time of occurrenceof minimum and maximum temperatures are to be criticallyexamined as a part of future investigations Prominent twomaxima (secondarymaximum is very shallower compared to

dydx = 0014

r = 0952

226230234238242246

1012141618202224

Min

imum

tem

pera

ture

(∘C)

Stan

dard

dev

iatio

n(∘

C)

(a)

minus12minus08minus04

0040812

1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

dydx = 0014

r = 0952

(year)

Standard deviationFitted line11pt soothed lineMinimum temperature

Tem

pera

ture

anom

aly

(∘C)

(b)

Figure 9 (a) Yearly mean minimum temperature along withstandard deviation and (b) anomaly

dydx = 0002

r = 0190

1620242832

Stan

dard

dev

iatio

n

6670747882869094

Tem

pera

ture

rang

e(∘ C)

(a)

minus12minus08minus04

0040812

dydx = 0002

r = 0190

1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

Tem

pera

ture

rang

ean

omal

y(∘

C)

(year)

Temperature range11pt soothed line

Fitted lineStandard deviation

(b)

Figure 10 (a) Yearly mean temperature range along with standarddeviation and (b) anomaly

the primary) and two minima were seen in middle high andtotal cloud climatology

33 Mean Daily Climatology in Temperature Mean of dailymaximum minimum mean and range in temperaturebetween daily maximum and minimum temperatures arecomputed and depicted for the 365 days in a year (Figures2 3 4 and 5) along with their standard deviations Theincrease inmean daily values in present data temperatures arequite obvious and standard deviation values are fallen within

Journal of Climatology 11

(year)

123456789

101112

(mon

th)

1964 1966 1968 1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008

No data

20181614121008060402minus00minus02minus04minus06minus08minus10minus12minus14minus16minus18minus20

(∘C)

Figure 11 Maximum temperature anomaly

27∘C for all the four mean daily climatologies A differencestatistics for 365 days between present data to past data ismade and is shown in Figure 6 Out of 365 days more than80 mean daily maximum minimum and mean tempera-tures are distributed as greater than zero occurrences in thedifference statistics An elevated frequency of occurrence ofmore than 65 under less than zero class is a concrete featurewhich implies that the range amongmaximumandminimumtemperature is alarmingly diminishing

34 Interannual Variability Inter annual variability has crit-ically examined for annual mean of minimum maximumand mean temperatures annual rainfall in the SW and NEmonsoon over the station and for theKerala State and averageannual surface pressure in the SW and NE monsoons forthe station Each inter annual variability data has undergonean 11 year moving average with end point extrapolation tillthe raw data availability to bring out long term trend andthe trend line also has shown in each inter annual variabilityfigures similar to Krishnakumar et al [22] for the interannualvariability of rainfall over Kerala Interpolated values areobtained for each year from the trend and such a data setobtained has been subjected to statistical significant testinterpolated data has not taken for a particular year if theraw data point is missing for the corresponding year Thismethod has enabled no reduction in the degrees of freedom(df ) To confirm the statistical significance on various 11year moving averaged data and also to assess the strength ofsample correlation coefficient (119903) linear regression t-test werecarried out and the results are presented (Table 6) Generallystrong and significant linear trend variations are observedEven though linear trends of maximum and minimumtemperatures have shown strong and significant statisticaltrends the derived variable-temperature range has resulteda weak and insignificant test statisticThis may be statisticallyinferred as a variable derived out of two variables whichfavours strong and significant test statistic separately need notshow the same test static of strong and significant

341 Interannual Variability in Temperature To assess theinterannual variability with temperature annual mean min-imum mean maximum and mean of mean temperaturesare found out for each year from 1964 to 2008 Also to

ascertain deviation from the normal each yearly mean valueis deducted from the mean of the entire values available forpresent data and thereby extracted the anomaly in tempera-ture Mean and standard deviation of daily mean maximumminimum and daily temperature range are computed for ayear and depicted in Figures 7 8 9 and 10 The fitted lineartrend line slope (dydx) as well as correlation coefficient (119903)values are annotated in graphs It is seen that from bothmeandaily temperature as well as from the maximum temperaturean abrupt prominent shift or a discernible upward trendis occurred after 1976 may be like the ldquoclimate shiftrdquo asstated by Trenberth [24] The 45 year rate in mean dailymaximum andminimum are obtained as +0585∘C +0540∘Cand +0630∘C respectively or with decadal rates of (+013 plusmn001)∘C (+012 plusmn 002)∘C and (+014 plusmn 00)∘C accordingly Inthe obtained value for the global mean surface temperatureas a whole (+007 plusmn 002)∘C surface temperatures over landhave risen at about double the ocean rate after 1979 (morethan (+027 plusmn 006)∘C per decade versus (+013 plusmn 004)∘Cper decade) as per the Trenberth et al [31] From 1950 to2004 the global land trend in diurnal temperature range wasextracted as negative (minus007∘C per decade) although tropicalareas are still underrepresented [31] Kumar et al [32] showedtrends of increase in diurnal temperature range significantincrease in annual maximum temperature and practicallytrendless annual minimum temperature over India in thelast century Our inter annual variability results coincidemostly with former studied data period which supports thedecrease of diurnal temperature range and the same is veryvivid from Figure 6 discussed earlier It infers that for thistropical coastal station the obtained decadal rate of (+0130plusmn001)∘C which is in agreement with global ocean rate maybe due to the station being coastal in origin The errorvalue reduction by plusmn003∘C for TERLS can be due to morestabilized single station data Also rate of increase in trend forminimum temperature is high in comparison to maximumtemperature A decreasing trend in maximum temperature isnoticed after 2005 with decreasing standard deviation valuesThis observation might be correct as a result of shifting theobservatory since 1964 to hardly 30m towards north in 2005were smooth and free sea-breeze flow which enables abruptreach of maximum temperature in the diurnal course aroundthe time of sea breeze onset The feature of attaining themaximum temperature of the day around the time of onset of

12 Journal of Climatology

Table 6 Linear trends of 11 year moving averaged data on various inter-annual variability Level of significance was choosen at 005 toread out critical 119905 values (119905

119888

) corresponding to the degree of freedom (df ) If 119903 gt 05 strong 119903 lt 05 weak 119905 gt 119905119888

significant and 119905 lt 119905119888

notsignificant

No Interannualvariability in 119903

Slope (119889119910119889119909) plusmnerror Calculated 119905 df Comments Data missing

1 Mean temperature 0891 0013 plusmn 0001 1208154 38Strong and

significant (Figures7(a) and 7(b))

1974 1975 19761982 and 1992

2 Mean maximumtemperature 0725 00121 plusmn 0002 650392 38

Strong andsignificant

(Figures 8(a) and 8(b)

1974 1975 19761982 and 1992

3 Mean minimumtemperature 0952 0014 plusmn 0000 1929677 38

Strong andsignificant

(Figures 9(a) and9(b))

1974 1975 19761982 and 1992

4 Mean temperaturerange minus0190 minus0002 plusmn 0002 minus119078 38

Weak and notsignificant

(Figure 10(a))

1974 1975 19761982 and 1992

5South West

monsoon rainfall(Thumba)

minus0477 minus2145 plusmn 0616 minus3483 41 Weak and significant(Figure 14) 1964 1998

6North East

monsoon rainfall(Thumba)

0848 3928 plusmn 0393 10000 39 Strong and significant(Figure 15)

1964 1977 1992and 1998

7South West

monsoon rainfall(Kerala)

minus0721 minus6149 plusmn 0934 minus6587 40 Strong and significant(Figure 16)

1964 2007 and2008

8North East

monsoon rainfall(Kerala)

0737 3430 plusmn 0491 6986 41 Strong and significant(Figure 17) 1964 2008

9South West

monsoon surfacepressure

0445 0006 plusmn 0002 2899 34 Weak and significant(Figure 18) 1964 to 1972

10North East

monsoon surfacepressure

minus0616 0010 plusmn 0002 minus4555 34 Strong and significant(Figure 19) 1964 to 1972

123456789

101112

(mon

th)

1964 1966 1968 1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008

No data

20181614121008060402minus00minus02minus04minus06minus08minus10minus12minus14minus16minus18minus20

(∘C)

Figure 12 Minimum temperature anomaly

sea breeze is known [33] As the station is of coastal in originthe occurrence of daily maximum temperature is very muchlinked to the setting and strong establishment of sea breezefront towards the land areas

Mean monthly anomaly structures in minimum max-imum and mean temperatures are presented in time sec-tion contour diagrams (Figures 11 12 and 13) All contour

depictions show well-marked temperature increase duringthe course of years and are so pronounced after 1976

342 Interannual Variability in SW and NE Monsoon Rain-fall and Surface Pressure Interannual variability in rainfalland surface pressure particularly for SW monsoon and NEmonsoon are studied A decrease in trend in SW monsoon

Journal of Climatology 13

123456789

101112

(mon

th)

(year)1964 1966 1968 1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008

No data

14121008060402

(∘C)

minus00minus02minus04minus06minus08minus10minus12minus14minus16minus18minus20minus22

Figure 13 Mean temperature anomaly

300400500600700800900

100011001200130014001500

1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010(year)

Rain

fall

(mm

)

dydx = minus2145

r = minus0477

Figure 14 South West monsoon rainfall over Thumba

(year)

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1000

1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

Rain

fall

(mm

)

dydx = 3928

r = 0848

Figure 15 North East monsoon rainfall over Thumba

and an increase in trend in NE monsoons are the observedfeatures over the station with decadal variability of (minus215 plusmn62)mm and (+393 plusmn 39)mm respectively (Figures 14and 15) Analysis by considering initial rainfall values (atthe beginning year on the fitted straight line) of SouthWest monsoon North East monsoon corresponding slopeof them as 817822mm 296535mm minus215mmdecade and

(year)

1000

1250

1500

1750

2000

2250

2500

2750

3000

3250

1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

Rain

fall

(mm

)

dydx = minus6149r = minus0721

Figure 16 South West monsoon rainfall over Kerala

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1000

1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010(year)

Rain

fall

(mm

)

r = 0737

dydx = 3430

Figure 17 North East monsoon rainfall over Kerala

393mmdecade respectively shows the likelihood exceedof North East monsoon rainfall over South West monsoonover this region after the year 2050 if the current trendcontinues Similar analyses are carried out on the slot 1965to 2007 for the Kerala meteorological subdivision from thelongest instrumental rainfall series of the Indian regions(1813ndash2006) ([34] httpwwwtropmetresin) The actualrainfall amount over Kerala during 2007 is obtained from the

14 Journal of Climatology

10070100751008010085100901009510100

Pres

sure

(mb)

dydx = 00061r = 04452

(a)

101214161820

1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008100012501500175020002250

Standard deviationNumber of observations

(year)

Stan

dard

de

viat

ion

(mb)

No

of o

bser

vatio

ns

(b)

Figure 18 (a) Interannual variability in surface pressure for SouthWest monsoon season along with (b) standard deviation andnumber of observations

100801008510090100951010010105101101011510120

Pres

sure

(mb)

dydx = minus0010r = minus0616

(a)

10

15

20

25

1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008500700900110013001500

Standard deviationNo of observations

(year)

Stan

dard

de

viat

ion

(mb)

No

of o

bser

vatio

ns

(b)

Figure 19 (a) Interannual variability in surface pressure for NorthEastmonsoon season alongwith (b) standard deviation and numberof observations

quarterly journal theMAUSAM (July 2008 andOctober 2008issues) Decadal variations show a decreasing trend in SWmonsoon by (minus615 plusmn 93)mm and increasing trend in NEmonsoon by (+340 plusmn 49)mm (Figures 16 and 17)

Interannual variability in surface pressure was derivedand depicted for SW monsoon (Figure 18) and NE monsoon(Figure 19) For this every hourly data available since 1973

was subjected to mean monthly value computation Numberof observations available ranges from 1100 to 2245 in SWmonsoon and 500 to 1495 in NE monsoon respectivelyand provided along with the standard deviation values inthe above figures Since atmospheric pressure is a highlystabilized property over a region for a particular season thedecadal trend variability observed is (+006 plusmn 002)mb and(ndash010plusmn002)mb for SWmonsoon andNEmonsoon respec-tively The positive (increase) and negative (decrease) inter-annual trends observed in SW monsoon and NE monsoonrespectively might have contributed possible implications inthe development of associated synoptic scale meteorologicalsystems (position and orientation of troughsridges and lowpressures) and thereby corresponding decrease and increasein SWmonsoon and NE monsoon rainfall trends

4 Conclusion

Long-term surface meteorological records from TERLS werecollected and analysed to study the long-term changes inoverall climatology climatology pertained to a particulartime of observation mean daily climatology in temperatureinterannual variability in temperature interannual variabilityin SW andNEmonsoon rainfall andmeanmonthly anomalystructure in temperature Results on various analyses showstrong and vivid features contributed by climate change Thesalient features observed contributed by climate change are asfollows

(1) All the temperatures show increase in their behaviourwith slight decrease in RH between the presentclimatology and past climatology

(2) Steadiness of wind decreases especially in non-SWmonsoon months which gives an indirect signatureof possible modifications in meso-scale systems

(3) High cloud climatology increases and thereby proba-ble modifications in radiation budget time of occur-rence of maximum and minimum temperatures

(4) Daily statistics for 365 days show more than 80exceedance in present climatology in comparison topast in minimum maximum andmean temperature

(5) Interannual variability analysis in mean temperaturefor this tropical coastal station shows +13∘C100 yearswhich is same as that of global ocean rate

(6) Observed interannual rainfall variability in SWmon-soon and North East monsoon shows decrease intrend by ndash2145mmdecade and increase in trendby +393mmdecade respectively Prognosis on thisobservation points out the likelihood exceedance ofNE monsoon rainfall over the South West monsoonafter the year 2050 for the station But it is prejudicialto infer that the rainfall increase in NE monsoon cancompensate the forecasted decrease in SWmonsoonsince NE monsoon is mostly of heavy rainfall innature as a result of meso-scale convective systemsSuch rainfall runoff is very fast than the slow waterinfiltration feature in association with SW monsoon

Journal of Climatology 15

rainfall which is essential for irrigation and agricul-tural needs

(7) Decadal variability in surface pressure has shown+006mb and minus010mb for SW monsoon and NEmonsoon respectively

The imprints due to climate change on various meteoro-logical parameters over this coastal station proved that theregion also faces vulnerable situation due to the phenom-ena and therefore necessary engineeringmethodssocioeco-nomic steps are to be undertaken

Acknowledgments

The availability of this unique data for a continuous periodof 45 years is the outcome of concerted and whole heartedefforts put in by the staffs of TERLSIndia MeteorologicalDepartment It is a pleasure to acknowledge with esteemedgratitude the team that worked since 1963 at the TERLSThumba whose efforts have yielded the voluminous uniquedata bank which is available for investigations The authorsare extremely grateful to Dr K Krishnamoorthy DirectorSpace Physics Laboratory VSSC and the reviewers for theirvaluable comments that helped to improve the paper to thefinal form

References

[1] N Oreskes ldquoThe scientific consensus on climatic changerdquoScience vol 306 p 1686 2004

[2] H Ayyar Effect of Pollution on Weather Science ReporterCouncil of Scientific and Industrial Research (CSIR) 1973

[3] K Rupa Kumar A K Sahai K Krishna Kumar et al ldquoHigh-resolution climate change scenarios for India for the 21stcenturyrdquo Current Science vol 90 no 3 pp 334ndash345 2006

[4] P Brohan J J Kennedy I Harris S F B Tett and P DJones ldquoUncertainty estimates in regional and global observedtemperature changes a new data set from 1850rdquo Journal ofGeophysical Research D vol 111 no 12 Article IDD12106 2006

[5] T M Smith and R W Reynolds ldquoA global merged land-air-sea surface temperature reconstruction based on historicalobservations (1880ndash1997)rdquo Journal of Climate vol 18 no 12 pp2021ndash2036 2005

[6] K M Lugina P Y Groisman K Y Vinnikov V V Koknaevaand N A Speranskaya ldquoMonthly surface air temperature timeseries area-averaged over the 30-degree latitudinal belts of theglobe 1881-2004 In Trends a compendium of data on globalchangerdquo Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Centre OakRidge National Laboratory US Department of Energy OakRidge TennUSA 2005 httpcdiacesdornlgovtrendstempluginaluginahtml

[7] J Hansen R RuedyM Sato et al ldquoA closer look atUnited Statesand global surface temperature changerdquo Journal of GeophysicalResearch D vol 106 no 20 pp 23947ndash23963 2001

[8] S Solomon D Quin M Manning et al ldquoContribution ofworking group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the IPCCrdquoTech Rep IPCC-AR4 2007

[9] R C Balling Jr and S W Brazel ldquoRecent changes in PhoenixArizona summertime diurnal precipitation patternsrdquo Theoreti-cal and Applied Climatology vol 38 no 1 pp 50ndash54 1987

[10] R Bornstein and Q Lin ldquoUrban heat islands and summertimeconvective thunderstorms in Atlanta three case studiesrdquoAtmo-spheric Environment vol 34 no 3 pp 507ndash516 2000

[11] P G Dixon and T L Mote ldquoPatterns and cause of Atlandarsquosurban heat island-initiated precipitationrdquo Journal of AppliedMeteorology vol 42 pp 1273ndash1284 2003

[12] F Fujibe ldquoLong-term surface wind changes in the Tokyometropolitan area in the afternoon of sunny days in the warmseasonrdquo Journal of the Meteorological Society of Japan vol 81no 1 pp 141ndash149 2003

[13] T Inoue and F Kimura ldquoUrban effects on low-level cloudsaround the Tokyo metropolitan area on clear summer daysrdquoGeophysical Research Letters vol 31 no 5 Article ID L051032004

[14] JM ShepherdH Pierce andA J Negri ldquoRainfallmodificationby major urban areas observations from spaceborne rain radaron the TRMM satelliterdquo Journal of Applied Meteorology vol 41no 7 pp 689ndash701 2002

[15] C Price SMichaelides S Pashiardis and P Alpert ldquoLong termchanges in diurnal temperature range in Cyprusrdquo AtmosphericResearch vol 51 no 2 pp 85ndash98 1999

[16] H N Singh S D Patil S D Bansod and N Singh ldquoSeasonalvariability in mean sea level pressure extremes over the Indianregionrdquo Atmospheric Research vol 101 no 1-2 pp 102ndash111 2011

[17] J Kingwell J Shimizu K Narita H Kawabata and I ShimizuldquoWeather factors affecting rocket operations a review and casehistoryrdquo American Meteorological Society vol 72 pp 778ndash7931991

[18] R E Turner and C K Hill Terrestrial Environment (Climatic)Guidlines for Use in Aerospace Vehicle Development 1982 Revi-sion Technical Memor 82473 National Aeronautics and SpaceAdministration 1982

[19] ldquoSpace Research in Indiardquo in Proceedings of the 38th COSPARMeeting pp 199ndash204 Bremen Germeny 2010

[20] P V Joseph and A Simon ldquoWeakening trend of the southwestmonsoon current through peninsular India from 1950 to thepresentrdquo Current Science vol 89 no 4 pp 687ndash694 2005

[21] S K Dash J R Kumar and M S Shekhar ldquoOn the decreasingfrequency of monsoon depressions over the Indian regionrdquoCurrent Science vol 86 no 10 pp 1404ndash1411 2004

[22] K N Krishnakumar G S L H V Prasada Rao and C SGopakumar ldquoRainfall trends in twentieth century over KeralaIndiardquo Atmospheric Environment vol 43 no 11 pp 1940ndash19442009

[23] National Council of Educational Research and Training(NCERT) India Text book of physicsmdashpart I for class 11 2006

[24] K E Trenberth ldquoRecent observed interdecadal climate changesin the Northern Hemisphererdquo Bulletin of the American Meteo-rological Society vol 71 no 7 pp 988ndash993 1990

[25] T K Karl H F Diaz and G Kukla ldquoUrbanization its detectionand effect in the United States climate recordrdquo Journal ofClimate vol 1 pp 1099ndash1123 1988

[26] M Rebetez andM Beniston ldquoChanges in sunshine duration arecorrelated with changes in daily temperature range this centuryan analysis of Swiss climatological datardquo Geophysical ResearchLetters vol 25 no 19 pp 3611ndash3613 1998

[27] K V S Namboodiri P K Dileep and K Mammen ldquoWindsteadiness up to 35 km and its variability before the SouthWestMonsoon onset and the withdrawalrdquoMausam vol 63 pp 275ndash282 2012

16 Journal of Climatology

[28] PMinnis A J Kirk P Rabindra and P Dung ldquoContrails cirrustrends and climaterdquo Journal of Climate vol 17 pp 1671ndash16852004

[29] C S Zerefos K Eleftheratos D S Balis P Zanis G Tselioudisand C Meleti ldquoEvidence of impact of aviation on cirrus cloudformationrdquoAtmospheric Chemistry and Physics vol 3 no 5 pp1633ndash1644 2003

[30] K Eleftheratos C S Zerefos C Varotsos and I KapsomenakisldquoInterannual variability of cirrus clouds in the tropics in elnino southern oscillation (ENSO) regions based on interna-tional satellite cloud climatology project (ISCCP) satellite datardquoInternational Journal of Remote Sensing vol 32 no 21 pp 6395ndash6405 2011

[31] K E Trenberth P D Jones and P Ambenje ldquoObservationssurface and climate changerdquo in Climate Change 2007 ThePhysical Science Basis Contribution of working group I to theFourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel onClimate Change S Solomon D Qin and M Manning EdsCambridge University Press Cambridge UK 2007

[32] K R Kumar K K Kumar and G B Pant ldquoDiurnal asymmetryof surface temperature trends over Indiardquo Geophysical ResearchLetters vol 21 no 8 pp 677ndash680 1994

[33] T R Sivaramakrishnan and P S Prakash Rao ldquoSea-breezefeatures over Sriharikota Indiardquo Meteorological Magazine vol118 no 1400 pp 64ndash67 1989

[34] NA SontakkeN Singh andHN Singh ldquoInstrumental periodrainfall series of the Indian region (AD 1813ndash2005) revisedreconstruction update and analysisrdquoHolocene vol 18 no 7 pp1055ndash1066 2008

Submit your manuscripts athttpwwwhindawicom

Forestry ResearchInternational Journal of

Hindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

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Journal of

Hindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

Hindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

EcosystemsJournal of

Hindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

MeteorologyAdvances in

EcologyInternational Journal of

Hindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

Marine BiologyJournal of

Hindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

Hindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom

Applied ampEnvironmentalSoil Science

Volume 2014

Advances in

Hindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

Environmental Chemistry

Atmospheric SciencesInternational Journal of

Hindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

Hindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

Waste ManagementJournal of

Hindawi Publishing Corporation httpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

International Journal of

Geophysics

Hindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

Geological ResearchJournal of

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BiodiversityInternational Journal of

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ScientificaHindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

OceanographyInternational Journal of

Hindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

The Scientific World JournalHindawi Publishing Corporation httpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

Journal of Computational Environmental SciencesHindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

Hindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

ClimatologyJournal of

Page 10: Research Article Climatic Variation at Thumba Equatorial Rocket Launching Station, India · 2016. 8. 22. · Research Article Climatic Variation at Thumba Equatorial Rocket Launching

10 Journal of Climatology

271273275277279281283285

Mea

n te

mpe

ratu

re (∘

C)

101214161820

Stan

dard

devi

atio

n(∘

C)

dydx = 0013

r = 0891

(a)

minus10minus08minus06minus04minus02

00204060810

Tem

pera

ture

anom

aly

(∘C)

1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010(year)

dydx = 0013

r = 0891

Mean temperature11pt soothed line

Fitted lineStandard deviation

(b)

Figure 7 (a) Yearly mean temperature along with standard devia-tion and (b) anomaly

308312316320324328

1517192123252729dydx = 0012

r = 0725

Max

imum

tem

pera

ture

(∘C)

Stan

dard

devi

atio

n(∘

C)

(a)

minus12minus08minus04

0040812

1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010(year)

dydx = 0012

r = 0725

Tem

pera

ture

anom

aly

(∘C)

Standard deviationFitted line

11pt soothed lineMaximum temperature

(b)

Figure 8 (a) Yearly mean maximum temperature along withstandard deviation and (b) anomaly

microphysical processes in mid-latitudes as in Minnis et al[28] Zerefos et al [29] Eleftheratos et al [30] have studiedthe variability of cirrus clouds over the tropics governedby the activity of El Nino Southern Oscillation the QuasiBiennial Oscillation and solar activity Possible radiationbudget alterations modifications at the time of occurrenceof minimum and maximum temperatures are to be criticallyexamined as a part of future investigations Prominent twomaxima (secondarymaximum is very shallower compared to

dydx = 0014

r = 0952

226230234238242246

1012141618202224

Min

imum

tem

pera

ture

(∘C)

Stan

dard

dev

iatio

n(∘

C)

(a)

minus12minus08minus04

0040812

1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

dydx = 0014

r = 0952

(year)

Standard deviationFitted line11pt soothed lineMinimum temperature

Tem

pera

ture

anom

aly

(∘C)

(b)

Figure 9 (a) Yearly mean minimum temperature along withstandard deviation and (b) anomaly

dydx = 0002

r = 0190

1620242832

Stan

dard

dev

iatio

n

6670747882869094

Tem

pera

ture

rang

e(∘ C)

(a)

minus12minus08minus04

0040812

dydx = 0002

r = 0190

1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

Tem

pera

ture

rang

ean

omal

y(∘

C)

(year)

Temperature range11pt soothed line

Fitted lineStandard deviation

(b)

Figure 10 (a) Yearly mean temperature range along with standarddeviation and (b) anomaly

the primary) and two minima were seen in middle high andtotal cloud climatology

33 Mean Daily Climatology in Temperature Mean of dailymaximum minimum mean and range in temperaturebetween daily maximum and minimum temperatures arecomputed and depicted for the 365 days in a year (Figures2 3 4 and 5) along with their standard deviations Theincrease inmean daily values in present data temperatures arequite obvious and standard deviation values are fallen within

Journal of Climatology 11

(year)

123456789

101112

(mon

th)

1964 1966 1968 1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008

No data

20181614121008060402minus00minus02minus04minus06minus08minus10minus12minus14minus16minus18minus20

(∘C)

Figure 11 Maximum temperature anomaly

27∘C for all the four mean daily climatologies A differencestatistics for 365 days between present data to past data ismade and is shown in Figure 6 Out of 365 days more than80 mean daily maximum minimum and mean tempera-tures are distributed as greater than zero occurrences in thedifference statistics An elevated frequency of occurrence ofmore than 65 under less than zero class is a concrete featurewhich implies that the range amongmaximumandminimumtemperature is alarmingly diminishing

34 Interannual Variability Inter annual variability has crit-ically examined for annual mean of minimum maximumand mean temperatures annual rainfall in the SW and NEmonsoon over the station and for theKerala State and averageannual surface pressure in the SW and NE monsoons forthe station Each inter annual variability data has undergonean 11 year moving average with end point extrapolation tillthe raw data availability to bring out long term trend andthe trend line also has shown in each inter annual variabilityfigures similar to Krishnakumar et al [22] for the interannualvariability of rainfall over Kerala Interpolated values areobtained for each year from the trend and such a data setobtained has been subjected to statistical significant testinterpolated data has not taken for a particular year if theraw data point is missing for the corresponding year Thismethod has enabled no reduction in the degrees of freedom(df ) To confirm the statistical significance on various 11year moving averaged data and also to assess the strength ofsample correlation coefficient (119903) linear regression t-test werecarried out and the results are presented (Table 6) Generallystrong and significant linear trend variations are observedEven though linear trends of maximum and minimumtemperatures have shown strong and significant statisticaltrends the derived variable-temperature range has resulteda weak and insignificant test statisticThis may be statisticallyinferred as a variable derived out of two variables whichfavours strong and significant test statistic separately need notshow the same test static of strong and significant

341 Interannual Variability in Temperature To assess theinterannual variability with temperature annual mean min-imum mean maximum and mean of mean temperaturesare found out for each year from 1964 to 2008 Also to

ascertain deviation from the normal each yearly mean valueis deducted from the mean of the entire values available forpresent data and thereby extracted the anomaly in tempera-ture Mean and standard deviation of daily mean maximumminimum and daily temperature range are computed for ayear and depicted in Figures 7 8 9 and 10 The fitted lineartrend line slope (dydx) as well as correlation coefficient (119903)values are annotated in graphs It is seen that from bothmeandaily temperature as well as from the maximum temperaturean abrupt prominent shift or a discernible upward trendis occurred after 1976 may be like the ldquoclimate shiftrdquo asstated by Trenberth [24] The 45 year rate in mean dailymaximum andminimum are obtained as +0585∘C +0540∘Cand +0630∘C respectively or with decadal rates of (+013 plusmn001)∘C (+012 plusmn 002)∘C and (+014 plusmn 00)∘C accordingly Inthe obtained value for the global mean surface temperatureas a whole (+007 plusmn 002)∘C surface temperatures over landhave risen at about double the ocean rate after 1979 (morethan (+027 plusmn 006)∘C per decade versus (+013 plusmn 004)∘Cper decade) as per the Trenberth et al [31] From 1950 to2004 the global land trend in diurnal temperature range wasextracted as negative (minus007∘C per decade) although tropicalareas are still underrepresented [31] Kumar et al [32] showedtrends of increase in diurnal temperature range significantincrease in annual maximum temperature and practicallytrendless annual minimum temperature over India in thelast century Our inter annual variability results coincidemostly with former studied data period which supports thedecrease of diurnal temperature range and the same is veryvivid from Figure 6 discussed earlier It infers that for thistropical coastal station the obtained decadal rate of (+0130plusmn001)∘C which is in agreement with global ocean rate maybe due to the station being coastal in origin The errorvalue reduction by plusmn003∘C for TERLS can be due to morestabilized single station data Also rate of increase in trend forminimum temperature is high in comparison to maximumtemperature A decreasing trend in maximum temperature isnoticed after 2005 with decreasing standard deviation valuesThis observation might be correct as a result of shifting theobservatory since 1964 to hardly 30m towards north in 2005were smooth and free sea-breeze flow which enables abruptreach of maximum temperature in the diurnal course aroundthe time of sea breeze onset The feature of attaining themaximum temperature of the day around the time of onset of

12 Journal of Climatology

Table 6 Linear trends of 11 year moving averaged data on various inter-annual variability Level of significance was choosen at 005 toread out critical 119905 values (119905

119888

) corresponding to the degree of freedom (df ) If 119903 gt 05 strong 119903 lt 05 weak 119905 gt 119905119888

significant and 119905 lt 119905119888

notsignificant

No Interannualvariability in 119903

Slope (119889119910119889119909) plusmnerror Calculated 119905 df Comments Data missing

1 Mean temperature 0891 0013 plusmn 0001 1208154 38Strong and

significant (Figures7(a) and 7(b))

1974 1975 19761982 and 1992

2 Mean maximumtemperature 0725 00121 plusmn 0002 650392 38

Strong andsignificant

(Figures 8(a) and 8(b)

1974 1975 19761982 and 1992

3 Mean minimumtemperature 0952 0014 plusmn 0000 1929677 38

Strong andsignificant

(Figures 9(a) and9(b))

1974 1975 19761982 and 1992

4 Mean temperaturerange minus0190 minus0002 plusmn 0002 minus119078 38

Weak and notsignificant

(Figure 10(a))

1974 1975 19761982 and 1992

5South West

monsoon rainfall(Thumba)

minus0477 minus2145 plusmn 0616 minus3483 41 Weak and significant(Figure 14) 1964 1998

6North East

monsoon rainfall(Thumba)

0848 3928 plusmn 0393 10000 39 Strong and significant(Figure 15)

1964 1977 1992and 1998

7South West

monsoon rainfall(Kerala)

minus0721 minus6149 plusmn 0934 minus6587 40 Strong and significant(Figure 16)

1964 2007 and2008

8North East

monsoon rainfall(Kerala)

0737 3430 plusmn 0491 6986 41 Strong and significant(Figure 17) 1964 2008

9South West

monsoon surfacepressure

0445 0006 plusmn 0002 2899 34 Weak and significant(Figure 18) 1964 to 1972

10North East

monsoon surfacepressure

minus0616 0010 plusmn 0002 minus4555 34 Strong and significant(Figure 19) 1964 to 1972

123456789

101112

(mon

th)

1964 1966 1968 1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008

No data

20181614121008060402minus00minus02minus04minus06minus08minus10minus12minus14minus16minus18minus20

(∘C)

Figure 12 Minimum temperature anomaly

sea breeze is known [33] As the station is of coastal in originthe occurrence of daily maximum temperature is very muchlinked to the setting and strong establishment of sea breezefront towards the land areas

Mean monthly anomaly structures in minimum max-imum and mean temperatures are presented in time sec-tion contour diagrams (Figures 11 12 and 13) All contour

depictions show well-marked temperature increase duringthe course of years and are so pronounced after 1976

342 Interannual Variability in SW and NE Monsoon Rain-fall and Surface Pressure Interannual variability in rainfalland surface pressure particularly for SW monsoon and NEmonsoon are studied A decrease in trend in SW monsoon

Journal of Climatology 13

123456789

101112

(mon

th)

(year)1964 1966 1968 1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008

No data

14121008060402

(∘C)

minus00minus02minus04minus06minus08minus10minus12minus14minus16minus18minus20minus22

Figure 13 Mean temperature anomaly

300400500600700800900

100011001200130014001500

1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010(year)

Rain

fall

(mm

)

dydx = minus2145

r = minus0477

Figure 14 South West monsoon rainfall over Thumba

(year)

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1000

1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

Rain

fall

(mm

)

dydx = 3928

r = 0848

Figure 15 North East monsoon rainfall over Thumba

and an increase in trend in NE monsoons are the observedfeatures over the station with decadal variability of (minus215 plusmn62)mm and (+393 plusmn 39)mm respectively (Figures 14and 15) Analysis by considering initial rainfall values (atthe beginning year on the fitted straight line) of SouthWest monsoon North East monsoon corresponding slopeof them as 817822mm 296535mm minus215mmdecade and

(year)

1000

1250

1500

1750

2000

2250

2500

2750

3000

3250

1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

Rain

fall

(mm

)

dydx = minus6149r = minus0721

Figure 16 South West monsoon rainfall over Kerala

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1000

1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010(year)

Rain

fall

(mm

)

r = 0737

dydx = 3430

Figure 17 North East monsoon rainfall over Kerala

393mmdecade respectively shows the likelihood exceedof North East monsoon rainfall over South West monsoonover this region after the year 2050 if the current trendcontinues Similar analyses are carried out on the slot 1965to 2007 for the Kerala meteorological subdivision from thelongest instrumental rainfall series of the Indian regions(1813ndash2006) ([34] httpwwwtropmetresin) The actualrainfall amount over Kerala during 2007 is obtained from the

14 Journal of Climatology

10070100751008010085100901009510100

Pres

sure

(mb)

dydx = 00061r = 04452

(a)

101214161820

1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008100012501500175020002250

Standard deviationNumber of observations

(year)

Stan

dard

de

viat

ion

(mb)

No

of o

bser

vatio

ns

(b)

Figure 18 (a) Interannual variability in surface pressure for SouthWest monsoon season along with (b) standard deviation andnumber of observations

100801008510090100951010010105101101011510120

Pres

sure

(mb)

dydx = minus0010r = minus0616

(a)

10

15

20

25

1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008500700900110013001500

Standard deviationNo of observations

(year)

Stan

dard

de

viat

ion

(mb)

No

of o

bser

vatio

ns

(b)

Figure 19 (a) Interannual variability in surface pressure for NorthEastmonsoon season alongwith (b) standard deviation and numberof observations

quarterly journal theMAUSAM (July 2008 andOctober 2008issues) Decadal variations show a decreasing trend in SWmonsoon by (minus615 plusmn 93)mm and increasing trend in NEmonsoon by (+340 plusmn 49)mm (Figures 16 and 17)

Interannual variability in surface pressure was derivedand depicted for SW monsoon (Figure 18) and NE monsoon(Figure 19) For this every hourly data available since 1973

was subjected to mean monthly value computation Numberof observations available ranges from 1100 to 2245 in SWmonsoon and 500 to 1495 in NE monsoon respectivelyand provided along with the standard deviation values inthe above figures Since atmospheric pressure is a highlystabilized property over a region for a particular season thedecadal trend variability observed is (+006 plusmn 002)mb and(ndash010plusmn002)mb for SWmonsoon andNEmonsoon respec-tively The positive (increase) and negative (decrease) inter-annual trends observed in SW monsoon and NE monsoonrespectively might have contributed possible implications inthe development of associated synoptic scale meteorologicalsystems (position and orientation of troughsridges and lowpressures) and thereby corresponding decrease and increasein SWmonsoon and NE monsoon rainfall trends

4 Conclusion

Long-term surface meteorological records from TERLS werecollected and analysed to study the long-term changes inoverall climatology climatology pertained to a particulartime of observation mean daily climatology in temperatureinterannual variability in temperature interannual variabilityin SW andNEmonsoon rainfall andmeanmonthly anomalystructure in temperature Results on various analyses showstrong and vivid features contributed by climate change Thesalient features observed contributed by climate change are asfollows

(1) All the temperatures show increase in their behaviourwith slight decrease in RH between the presentclimatology and past climatology

(2) Steadiness of wind decreases especially in non-SWmonsoon months which gives an indirect signatureof possible modifications in meso-scale systems

(3) High cloud climatology increases and thereby proba-ble modifications in radiation budget time of occur-rence of maximum and minimum temperatures

(4) Daily statistics for 365 days show more than 80exceedance in present climatology in comparison topast in minimum maximum andmean temperature

(5) Interannual variability analysis in mean temperaturefor this tropical coastal station shows +13∘C100 yearswhich is same as that of global ocean rate

(6) Observed interannual rainfall variability in SWmon-soon and North East monsoon shows decrease intrend by ndash2145mmdecade and increase in trendby +393mmdecade respectively Prognosis on thisobservation points out the likelihood exceedance ofNE monsoon rainfall over the South West monsoonafter the year 2050 for the station But it is prejudicialto infer that the rainfall increase in NE monsoon cancompensate the forecasted decrease in SWmonsoonsince NE monsoon is mostly of heavy rainfall innature as a result of meso-scale convective systemsSuch rainfall runoff is very fast than the slow waterinfiltration feature in association with SW monsoon

Journal of Climatology 15

rainfall which is essential for irrigation and agricul-tural needs

(7) Decadal variability in surface pressure has shown+006mb and minus010mb for SW monsoon and NEmonsoon respectively

The imprints due to climate change on various meteoro-logical parameters over this coastal station proved that theregion also faces vulnerable situation due to the phenom-ena and therefore necessary engineeringmethodssocioeco-nomic steps are to be undertaken

Acknowledgments

The availability of this unique data for a continuous periodof 45 years is the outcome of concerted and whole heartedefforts put in by the staffs of TERLSIndia MeteorologicalDepartment It is a pleasure to acknowledge with esteemedgratitude the team that worked since 1963 at the TERLSThumba whose efforts have yielded the voluminous uniquedata bank which is available for investigations The authorsare extremely grateful to Dr K Krishnamoorthy DirectorSpace Physics Laboratory VSSC and the reviewers for theirvaluable comments that helped to improve the paper to thefinal form

References

[1] N Oreskes ldquoThe scientific consensus on climatic changerdquoScience vol 306 p 1686 2004

[2] H Ayyar Effect of Pollution on Weather Science ReporterCouncil of Scientific and Industrial Research (CSIR) 1973

[3] K Rupa Kumar A K Sahai K Krishna Kumar et al ldquoHigh-resolution climate change scenarios for India for the 21stcenturyrdquo Current Science vol 90 no 3 pp 334ndash345 2006

[4] P Brohan J J Kennedy I Harris S F B Tett and P DJones ldquoUncertainty estimates in regional and global observedtemperature changes a new data set from 1850rdquo Journal ofGeophysical Research D vol 111 no 12 Article IDD12106 2006

[5] T M Smith and R W Reynolds ldquoA global merged land-air-sea surface temperature reconstruction based on historicalobservations (1880ndash1997)rdquo Journal of Climate vol 18 no 12 pp2021ndash2036 2005

[6] K M Lugina P Y Groisman K Y Vinnikov V V Koknaevaand N A Speranskaya ldquoMonthly surface air temperature timeseries area-averaged over the 30-degree latitudinal belts of theglobe 1881-2004 In Trends a compendium of data on globalchangerdquo Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Centre OakRidge National Laboratory US Department of Energy OakRidge TennUSA 2005 httpcdiacesdornlgovtrendstempluginaluginahtml

[7] J Hansen R RuedyM Sato et al ldquoA closer look atUnited Statesand global surface temperature changerdquo Journal of GeophysicalResearch D vol 106 no 20 pp 23947ndash23963 2001

[8] S Solomon D Quin M Manning et al ldquoContribution ofworking group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the IPCCrdquoTech Rep IPCC-AR4 2007

[9] R C Balling Jr and S W Brazel ldquoRecent changes in PhoenixArizona summertime diurnal precipitation patternsrdquo Theoreti-cal and Applied Climatology vol 38 no 1 pp 50ndash54 1987

[10] R Bornstein and Q Lin ldquoUrban heat islands and summertimeconvective thunderstorms in Atlanta three case studiesrdquoAtmo-spheric Environment vol 34 no 3 pp 507ndash516 2000

[11] P G Dixon and T L Mote ldquoPatterns and cause of Atlandarsquosurban heat island-initiated precipitationrdquo Journal of AppliedMeteorology vol 42 pp 1273ndash1284 2003

[12] F Fujibe ldquoLong-term surface wind changes in the Tokyometropolitan area in the afternoon of sunny days in the warmseasonrdquo Journal of the Meteorological Society of Japan vol 81no 1 pp 141ndash149 2003

[13] T Inoue and F Kimura ldquoUrban effects on low-level cloudsaround the Tokyo metropolitan area on clear summer daysrdquoGeophysical Research Letters vol 31 no 5 Article ID L051032004

[14] JM ShepherdH Pierce andA J Negri ldquoRainfallmodificationby major urban areas observations from spaceborne rain radaron the TRMM satelliterdquo Journal of Applied Meteorology vol 41no 7 pp 689ndash701 2002

[15] C Price SMichaelides S Pashiardis and P Alpert ldquoLong termchanges in diurnal temperature range in Cyprusrdquo AtmosphericResearch vol 51 no 2 pp 85ndash98 1999

[16] H N Singh S D Patil S D Bansod and N Singh ldquoSeasonalvariability in mean sea level pressure extremes over the Indianregionrdquo Atmospheric Research vol 101 no 1-2 pp 102ndash111 2011

[17] J Kingwell J Shimizu K Narita H Kawabata and I ShimizuldquoWeather factors affecting rocket operations a review and casehistoryrdquo American Meteorological Society vol 72 pp 778ndash7931991

[18] R E Turner and C K Hill Terrestrial Environment (Climatic)Guidlines for Use in Aerospace Vehicle Development 1982 Revi-sion Technical Memor 82473 National Aeronautics and SpaceAdministration 1982

[19] ldquoSpace Research in Indiardquo in Proceedings of the 38th COSPARMeeting pp 199ndash204 Bremen Germeny 2010

[20] P V Joseph and A Simon ldquoWeakening trend of the southwestmonsoon current through peninsular India from 1950 to thepresentrdquo Current Science vol 89 no 4 pp 687ndash694 2005

[21] S K Dash J R Kumar and M S Shekhar ldquoOn the decreasingfrequency of monsoon depressions over the Indian regionrdquoCurrent Science vol 86 no 10 pp 1404ndash1411 2004

[22] K N Krishnakumar G S L H V Prasada Rao and C SGopakumar ldquoRainfall trends in twentieth century over KeralaIndiardquo Atmospheric Environment vol 43 no 11 pp 1940ndash19442009

[23] National Council of Educational Research and Training(NCERT) India Text book of physicsmdashpart I for class 11 2006

[24] K E Trenberth ldquoRecent observed interdecadal climate changesin the Northern Hemisphererdquo Bulletin of the American Meteo-rological Society vol 71 no 7 pp 988ndash993 1990

[25] T K Karl H F Diaz and G Kukla ldquoUrbanization its detectionand effect in the United States climate recordrdquo Journal ofClimate vol 1 pp 1099ndash1123 1988

[26] M Rebetez andM Beniston ldquoChanges in sunshine duration arecorrelated with changes in daily temperature range this centuryan analysis of Swiss climatological datardquo Geophysical ResearchLetters vol 25 no 19 pp 3611ndash3613 1998

[27] K V S Namboodiri P K Dileep and K Mammen ldquoWindsteadiness up to 35 km and its variability before the SouthWestMonsoon onset and the withdrawalrdquoMausam vol 63 pp 275ndash282 2012

16 Journal of Climatology

[28] PMinnis A J Kirk P Rabindra and P Dung ldquoContrails cirrustrends and climaterdquo Journal of Climate vol 17 pp 1671ndash16852004

[29] C S Zerefos K Eleftheratos D S Balis P Zanis G Tselioudisand C Meleti ldquoEvidence of impact of aviation on cirrus cloudformationrdquoAtmospheric Chemistry and Physics vol 3 no 5 pp1633ndash1644 2003

[30] K Eleftheratos C S Zerefos C Varotsos and I KapsomenakisldquoInterannual variability of cirrus clouds in the tropics in elnino southern oscillation (ENSO) regions based on interna-tional satellite cloud climatology project (ISCCP) satellite datardquoInternational Journal of Remote Sensing vol 32 no 21 pp 6395ndash6405 2011

[31] K E Trenberth P D Jones and P Ambenje ldquoObservationssurface and climate changerdquo in Climate Change 2007 ThePhysical Science Basis Contribution of working group I to theFourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel onClimate Change S Solomon D Qin and M Manning EdsCambridge University Press Cambridge UK 2007

[32] K R Kumar K K Kumar and G B Pant ldquoDiurnal asymmetryof surface temperature trends over Indiardquo Geophysical ResearchLetters vol 21 no 8 pp 677ndash680 1994

[33] T R Sivaramakrishnan and P S Prakash Rao ldquoSea-breezefeatures over Sriharikota Indiardquo Meteorological Magazine vol118 no 1400 pp 64ndash67 1989

[34] NA SontakkeN Singh andHN Singh ldquoInstrumental periodrainfall series of the Indian region (AD 1813ndash2005) revisedreconstruction update and analysisrdquoHolocene vol 18 no 7 pp1055ndash1066 2008

Submit your manuscripts athttpwwwhindawicom

Forestry ResearchInternational Journal of

Hindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

Environmental and Public Health

Journal of

Hindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

Hindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

EcosystemsJournal of

Hindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

MeteorologyAdvances in

EcologyInternational Journal of

Hindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

Marine BiologyJournal of

Hindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

Hindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom

Applied ampEnvironmentalSoil Science

Volume 2014

Advances in

Hindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

Environmental Chemistry

Atmospheric SciencesInternational Journal of

Hindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

Hindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

Waste ManagementJournal of

Hindawi Publishing Corporation httpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

International Journal of

Geophysics

Hindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

Geological ResearchJournal of

EarthquakesJournal of

Hindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

BiodiversityInternational Journal of

Hindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

ScientificaHindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

OceanographyInternational Journal of

Hindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

The Scientific World JournalHindawi Publishing Corporation httpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

Journal of Computational Environmental SciencesHindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

Hindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

ClimatologyJournal of

Page 11: Research Article Climatic Variation at Thumba Equatorial Rocket Launching Station, India · 2016. 8. 22. · Research Article Climatic Variation at Thumba Equatorial Rocket Launching

Journal of Climatology 11

(year)

123456789

101112

(mon

th)

1964 1966 1968 1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008

No data

20181614121008060402minus00minus02minus04minus06minus08minus10minus12minus14minus16minus18minus20

(∘C)

Figure 11 Maximum temperature anomaly

27∘C for all the four mean daily climatologies A differencestatistics for 365 days between present data to past data ismade and is shown in Figure 6 Out of 365 days more than80 mean daily maximum minimum and mean tempera-tures are distributed as greater than zero occurrences in thedifference statistics An elevated frequency of occurrence ofmore than 65 under less than zero class is a concrete featurewhich implies that the range amongmaximumandminimumtemperature is alarmingly diminishing

34 Interannual Variability Inter annual variability has crit-ically examined for annual mean of minimum maximumand mean temperatures annual rainfall in the SW and NEmonsoon over the station and for theKerala State and averageannual surface pressure in the SW and NE monsoons forthe station Each inter annual variability data has undergonean 11 year moving average with end point extrapolation tillthe raw data availability to bring out long term trend andthe trend line also has shown in each inter annual variabilityfigures similar to Krishnakumar et al [22] for the interannualvariability of rainfall over Kerala Interpolated values areobtained for each year from the trend and such a data setobtained has been subjected to statistical significant testinterpolated data has not taken for a particular year if theraw data point is missing for the corresponding year Thismethod has enabled no reduction in the degrees of freedom(df ) To confirm the statistical significance on various 11year moving averaged data and also to assess the strength ofsample correlation coefficient (119903) linear regression t-test werecarried out and the results are presented (Table 6) Generallystrong and significant linear trend variations are observedEven though linear trends of maximum and minimumtemperatures have shown strong and significant statisticaltrends the derived variable-temperature range has resulteda weak and insignificant test statisticThis may be statisticallyinferred as a variable derived out of two variables whichfavours strong and significant test statistic separately need notshow the same test static of strong and significant

341 Interannual Variability in Temperature To assess theinterannual variability with temperature annual mean min-imum mean maximum and mean of mean temperaturesare found out for each year from 1964 to 2008 Also to

ascertain deviation from the normal each yearly mean valueis deducted from the mean of the entire values available forpresent data and thereby extracted the anomaly in tempera-ture Mean and standard deviation of daily mean maximumminimum and daily temperature range are computed for ayear and depicted in Figures 7 8 9 and 10 The fitted lineartrend line slope (dydx) as well as correlation coefficient (119903)values are annotated in graphs It is seen that from bothmeandaily temperature as well as from the maximum temperaturean abrupt prominent shift or a discernible upward trendis occurred after 1976 may be like the ldquoclimate shiftrdquo asstated by Trenberth [24] The 45 year rate in mean dailymaximum andminimum are obtained as +0585∘C +0540∘Cand +0630∘C respectively or with decadal rates of (+013 plusmn001)∘C (+012 plusmn 002)∘C and (+014 plusmn 00)∘C accordingly Inthe obtained value for the global mean surface temperatureas a whole (+007 plusmn 002)∘C surface temperatures over landhave risen at about double the ocean rate after 1979 (morethan (+027 plusmn 006)∘C per decade versus (+013 plusmn 004)∘Cper decade) as per the Trenberth et al [31] From 1950 to2004 the global land trend in diurnal temperature range wasextracted as negative (minus007∘C per decade) although tropicalareas are still underrepresented [31] Kumar et al [32] showedtrends of increase in diurnal temperature range significantincrease in annual maximum temperature and practicallytrendless annual minimum temperature over India in thelast century Our inter annual variability results coincidemostly with former studied data period which supports thedecrease of diurnal temperature range and the same is veryvivid from Figure 6 discussed earlier It infers that for thistropical coastal station the obtained decadal rate of (+0130plusmn001)∘C which is in agreement with global ocean rate maybe due to the station being coastal in origin The errorvalue reduction by plusmn003∘C for TERLS can be due to morestabilized single station data Also rate of increase in trend forminimum temperature is high in comparison to maximumtemperature A decreasing trend in maximum temperature isnoticed after 2005 with decreasing standard deviation valuesThis observation might be correct as a result of shifting theobservatory since 1964 to hardly 30m towards north in 2005were smooth and free sea-breeze flow which enables abruptreach of maximum temperature in the diurnal course aroundthe time of sea breeze onset The feature of attaining themaximum temperature of the day around the time of onset of

12 Journal of Climatology

Table 6 Linear trends of 11 year moving averaged data on various inter-annual variability Level of significance was choosen at 005 toread out critical 119905 values (119905

119888

) corresponding to the degree of freedom (df ) If 119903 gt 05 strong 119903 lt 05 weak 119905 gt 119905119888

significant and 119905 lt 119905119888

notsignificant

No Interannualvariability in 119903

Slope (119889119910119889119909) plusmnerror Calculated 119905 df Comments Data missing

1 Mean temperature 0891 0013 plusmn 0001 1208154 38Strong and

significant (Figures7(a) and 7(b))

1974 1975 19761982 and 1992

2 Mean maximumtemperature 0725 00121 plusmn 0002 650392 38

Strong andsignificant

(Figures 8(a) and 8(b)

1974 1975 19761982 and 1992

3 Mean minimumtemperature 0952 0014 plusmn 0000 1929677 38

Strong andsignificant

(Figures 9(a) and9(b))

1974 1975 19761982 and 1992

4 Mean temperaturerange minus0190 minus0002 plusmn 0002 minus119078 38

Weak and notsignificant

(Figure 10(a))

1974 1975 19761982 and 1992

5South West

monsoon rainfall(Thumba)

minus0477 minus2145 plusmn 0616 minus3483 41 Weak and significant(Figure 14) 1964 1998

6North East

monsoon rainfall(Thumba)

0848 3928 plusmn 0393 10000 39 Strong and significant(Figure 15)

1964 1977 1992and 1998

7South West

monsoon rainfall(Kerala)

minus0721 minus6149 plusmn 0934 minus6587 40 Strong and significant(Figure 16)

1964 2007 and2008

8North East

monsoon rainfall(Kerala)

0737 3430 plusmn 0491 6986 41 Strong and significant(Figure 17) 1964 2008

9South West

monsoon surfacepressure

0445 0006 plusmn 0002 2899 34 Weak and significant(Figure 18) 1964 to 1972

10North East

monsoon surfacepressure

minus0616 0010 plusmn 0002 minus4555 34 Strong and significant(Figure 19) 1964 to 1972

123456789

101112

(mon

th)

1964 1966 1968 1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008

No data

20181614121008060402minus00minus02minus04minus06minus08minus10minus12minus14minus16minus18minus20

(∘C)

Figure 12 Minimum temperature anomaly

sea breeze is known [33] As the station is of coastal in originthe occurrence of daily maximum temperature is very muchlinked to the setting and strong establishment of sea breezefront towards the land areas

Mean monthly anomaly structures in minimum max-imum and mean temperatures are presented in time sec-tion contour diagrams (Figures 11 12 and 13) All contour

depictions show well-marked temperature increase duringthe course of years and are so pronounced after 1976

342 Interannual Variability in SW and NE Monsoon Rain-fall and Surface Pressure Interannual variability in rainfalland surface pressure particularly for SW monsoon and NEmonsoon are studied A decrease in trend in SW monsoon

Journal of Climatology 13

123456789

101112

(mon

th)

(year)1964 1966 1968 1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008

No data

14121008060402

(∘C)

minus00minus02minus04minus06minus08minus10minus12minus14minus16minus18minus20minus22

Figure 13 Mean temperature anomaly

300400500600700800900

100011001200130014001500

1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010(year)

Rain

fall

(mm

)

dydx = minus2145

r = minus0477

Figure 14 South West monsoon rainfall over Thumba

(year)

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1000

1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

Rain

fall

(mm

)

dydx = 3928

r = 0848

Figure 15 North East monsoon rainfall over Thumba

and an increase in trend in NE monsoons are the observedfeatures over the station with decadal variability of (minus215 plusmn62)mm and (+393 plusmn 39)mm respectively (Figures 14and 15) Analysis by considering initial rainfall values (atthe beginning year on the fitted straight line) of SouthWest monsoon North East monsoon corresponding slopeof them as 817822mm 296535mm minus215mmdecade and

(year)

1000

1250

1500

1750

2000

2250

2500

2750

3000

3250

1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

Rain

fall

(mm

)

dydx = minus6149r = minus0721

Figure 16 South West monsoon rainfall over Kerala

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1000

1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010(year)

Rain

fall

(mm

)

r = 0737

dydx = 3430

Figure 17 North East monsoon rainfall over Kerala

393mmdecade respectively shows the likelihood exceedof North East monsoon rainfall over South West monsoonover this region after the year 2050 if the current trendcontinues Similar analyses are carried out on the slot 1965to 2007 for the Kerala meteorological subdivision from thelongest instrumental rainfall series of the Indian regions(1813ndash2006) ([34] httpwwwtropmetresin) The actualrainfall amount over Kerala during 2007 is obtained from the

14 Journal of Climatology

10070100751008010085100901009510100

Pres

sure

(mb)

dydx = 00061r = 04452

(a)

101214161820

1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008100012501500175020002250

Standard deviationNumber of observations

(year)

Stan

dard

de

viat

ion

(mb)

No

of o

bser

vatio

ns

(b)

Figure 18 (a) Interannual variability in surface pressure for SouthWest monsoon season along with (b) standard deviation andnumber of observations

100801008510090100951010010105101101011510120

Pres

sure

(mb)

dydx = minus0010r = minus0616

(a)

10

15

20

25

1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008500700900110013001500

Standard deviationNo of observations

(year)

Stan

dard

de

viat

ion

(mb)

No

of o

bser

vatio

ns

(b)

Figure 19 (a) Interannual variability in surface pressure for NorthEastmonsoon season alongwith (b) standard deviation and numberof observations

quarterly journal theMAUSAM (July 2008 andOctober 2008issues) Decadal variations show a decreasing trend in SWmonsoon by (minus615 plusmn 93)mm and increasing trend in NEmonsoon by (+340 plusmn 49)mm (Figures 16 and 17)

Interannual variability in surface pressure was derivedand depicted for SW monsoon (Figure 18) and NE monsoon(Figure 19) For this every hourly data available since 1973

was subjected to mean monthly value computation Numberof observations available ranges from 1100 to 2245 in SWmonsoon and 500 to 1495 in NE monsoon respectivelyand provided along with the standard deviation values inthe above figures Since atmospheric pressure is a highlystabilized property over a region for a particular season thedecadal trend variability observed is (+006 plusmn 002)mb and(ndash010plusmn002)mb for SWmonsoon andNEmonsoon respec-tively The positive (increase) and negative (decrease) inter-annual trends observed in SW monsoon and NE monsoonrespectively might have contributed possible implications inthe development of associated synoptic scale meteorologicalsystems (position and orientation of troughsridges and lowpressures) and thereby corresponding decrease and increasein SWmonsoon and NE monsoon rainfall trends

4 Conclusion

Long-term surface meteorological records from TERLS werecollected and analysed to study the long-term changes inoverall climatology climatology pertained to a particulartime of observation mean daily climatology in temperatureinterannual variability in temperature interannual variabilityin SW andNEmonsoon rainfall andmeanmonthly anomalystructure in temperature Results on various analyses showstrong and vivid features contributed by climate change Thesalient features observed contributed by climate change are asfollows

(1) All the temperatures show increase in their behaviourwith slight decrease in RH between the presentclimatology and past climatology

(2) Steadiness of wind decreases especially in non-SWmonsoon months which gives an indirect signatureof possible modifications in meso-scale systems

(3) High cloud climatology increases and thereby proba-ble modifications in radiation budget time of occur-rence of maximum and minimum temperatures

(4) Daily statistics for 365 days show more than 80exceedance in present climatology in comparison topast in minimum maximum andmean temperature

(5) Interannual variability analysis in mean temperaturefor this tropical coastal station shows +13∘C100 yearswhich is same as that of global ocean rate

(6) Observed interannual rainfall variability in SWmon-soon and North East monsoon shows decrease intrend by ndash2145mmdecade and increase in trendby +393mmdecade respectively Prognosis on thisobservation points out the likelihood exceedance ofNE monsoon rainfall over the South West monsoonafter the year 2050 for the station But it is prejudicialto infer that the rainfall increase in NE monsoon cancompensate the forecasted decrease in SWmonsoonsince NE monsoon is mostly of heavy rainfall innature as a result of meso-scale convective systemsSuch rainfall runoff is very fast than the slow waterinfiltration feature in association with SW monsoon

Journal of Climatology 15

rainfall which is essential for irrigation and agricul-tural needs

(7) Decadal variability in surface pressure has shown+006mb and minus010mb for SW monsoon and NEmonsoon respectively

The imprints due to climate change on various meteoro-logical parameters over this coastal station proved that theregion also faces vulnerable situation due to the phenom-ena and therefore necessary engineeringmethodssocioeco-nomic steps are to be undertaken

Acknowledgments

The availability of this unique data for a continuous periodof 45 years is the outcome of concerted and whole heartedefforts put in by the staffs of TERLSIndia MeteorologicalDepartment It is a pleasure to acknowledge with esteemedgratitude the team that worked since 1963 at the TERLSThumba whose efforts have yielded the voluminous uniquedata bank which is available for investigations The authorsare extremely grateful to Dr K Krishnamoorthy DirectorSpace Physics Laboratory VSSC and the reviewers for theirvaluable comments that helped to improve the paper to thefinal form

References

[1] N Oreskes ldquoThe scientific consensus on climatic changerdquoScience vol 306 p 1686 2004

[2] H Ayyar Effect of Pollution on Weather Science ReporterCouncil of Scientific and Industrial Research (CSIR) 1973

[3] K Rupa Kumar A K Sahai K Krishna Kumar et al ldquoHigh-resolution climate change scenarios for India for the 21stcenturyrdquo Current Science vol 90 no 3 pp 334ndash345 2006

[4] P Brohan J J Kennedy I Harris S F B Tett and P DJones ldquoUncertainty estimates in regional and global observedtemperature changes a new data set from 1850rdquo Journal ofGeophysical Research D vol 111 no 12 Article IDD12106 2006

[5] T M Smith and R W Reynolds ldquoA global merged land-air-sea surface temperature reconstruction based on historicalobservations (1880ndash1997)rdquo Journal of Climate vol 18 no 12 pp2021ndash2036 2005

[6] K M Lugina P Y Groisman K Y Vinnikov V V Koknaevaand N A Speranskaya ldquoMonthly surface air temperature timeseries area-averaged over the 30-degree latitudinal belts of theglobe 1881-2004 In Trends a compendium of data on globalchangerdquo Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Centre OakRidge National Laboratory US Department of Energy OakRidge TennUSA 2005 httpcdiacesdornlgovtrendstempluginaluginahtml

[7] J Hansen R RuedyM Sato et al ldquoA closer look atUnited Statesand global surface temperature changerdquo Journal of GeophysicalResearch D vol 106 no 20 pp 23947ndash23963 2001

[8] S Solomon D Quin M Manning et al ldquoContribution ofworking group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the IPCCrdquoTech Rep IPCC-AR4 2007

[9] R C Balling Jr and S W Brazel ldquoRecent changes in PhoenixArizona summertime diurnal precipitation patternsrdquo Theoreti-cal and Applied Climatology vol 38 no 1 pp 50ndash54 1987

[10] R Bornstein and Q Lin ldquoUrban heat islands and summertimeconvective thunderstorms in Atlanta three case studiesrdquoAtmo-spheric Environment vol 34 no 3 pp 507ndash516 2000

[11] P G Dixon and T L Mote ldquoPatterns and cause of Atlandarsquosurban heat island-initiated precipitationrdquo Journal of AppliedMeteorology vol 42 pp 1273ndash1284 2003

[12] F Fujibe ldquoLong-term surface wind changes in the Tokyometropolitan area in the afternoon of sunny days in the warmseasonrdquo Journal of the Meteorological Society of Japan vol 81no 1 pp 141ndash149 2003

[13] T Inoue and F Kimura ldquoUrban effects on low-level cloudsaround the Tokyo metropolitan area on clear summer daysrdquoGeophysical Research Letters vol 31 no 5 Article ID L051032004

[14] JM ShepherdH Pierce andA J Negri ldquoRainfallmodificationby major urban areas observations from spaceborne rain radaron the TRMM satelliterdquo Journal of Applied Meteorology vol 41no 7 pp 689ndash701 2002

[15] C Price SMichaelides S Pashiardis and P Alpert ldquoLong termchanges in diurnal temperature range in Cyprusrdquo AtmosphericResearch vol 51 no 2 pp 85ndash98 1999

[16] H N Singh S D Patil S D Bansod and N Singh ldquoSeasonalvariability in mean sea level pressure extremes over the Indianregionrdquo Atmospheric Research vol 101 no 1-2 pp 102ndash111 2011

[17] J Kingwell J Shimizu K Narita H Kawabata and I ShimizuldquoWeather factors affecting rocket operations a review and casehistoryrdquo American Meteorological Society vol 72 pp 778ndash7931991

[18] R E Turner and C K Hill Terrestrial Environment (Climatic)Guidlines for Use in Aerospace Vehicle Development 1982 Revi-sion Technical Memor 82473 National Aeronautics and SpaceAdministration 1982

[19] ldquoSpace Research in Indiardquo in Proceedings of the 38th COSPARMeeting pp 199ndash204 Bremen Germeny 2010

[20] P V Joseph and A Simon ldquoWeakening trend of the southwestmonsoon current through peninsular India from 1950 to thepresentrdquo Current Science vol 89 no 4 pp 687ndash694 2005

[21] S K Dash J R Kumar and M S Shekhar ldquoOn the decreasingfrequency of monsoon depressions over the Indian regionrdquoCurrent Science vol 86 no 10 pp 1404ndash1411 2004

[22] K N Krishnakumar G S L H V Prasada Rao and C SGopakumar ldquoRainfall trends in twentieth century over KeralaIndiardquo Atmospheric Environment vol 43 no 11 pp 1940ndash19442009

[23] National Council of Educational Research and Training(NCERT) India Text book of physicsmdashpart I for class 11 2006

[24] K E Trenberth ldquoRecent observed interdecadal climate changesin the Northern Hemisphererdquo Bulletin of the American Meteo-rological Society vol 71 no 7 pp 988ndash993 1990

[25] T K Karl H F Diaz and G Kukla ldquoUrbanization its detectionand effect in the United States climate recordrdquo Journal ofClimate vol 1 pp 1099ndash1123 1988

[26] M Rebetez andM Beniston ldquoChanges in sunshine duration arecorrelated with changes in daily temperature range this centuryan analysis of Swiss climatological datardquo Geophysical ResearchLetters vol 25 no 19 pp 3611ndash3613 1998

[27] K V S Namboodiri P K Dileep and K Mammen ldquoWindsteadiness up to 35 km and its variability before the SouthWestMonsoon onset and the withdrawalrdquoMausam vol 63 pp 275ndash282 2012

16 Journal of Climatology

[28] PMinnis A J Kirk P Rabindra and P Dung ldquoContrails cirrustrends and climaterdquo Journal of Climate vol 17 pp 1671ndash16852004

[29] C S Zerefos K Eleftheratos D S Balis P Zanis G Tselioudisand C Meleti ldquoEvidence of impact of aviation on cirrus cloudformationrdquoAtmospheric Chemistry and Physics vol 3 no 5 pp1633ndash1644 2003

[30] K Eleftheratos C S Zerefos C Varotsos and I KapsomenakisldquoInterannual variability of cirrus clouds in the tropics in elnino southern oscillation (ENSO) regions based on interna-tional satellite cloud climatology project (ISCCP) satellite datardquoInternational Journal of Remote Sensing vol 32 no 21 pp 6395ndash6405 2011

[31] K E Trenberth P D Jones and P Ambenje ldquoObservationssurface and climate changerdquo in Climate Change 2007 ThePhysical Science Basis Contribution of working group I to theFourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel onClimate Change S Solomon D Qin and M Manning EdsCambridge University Press Cambridge UK 2007

[32] K R Kumar K K Kumar and G B Pant ldquoDiurnal asymmetryof surface temperature trends over Indiardquo Geophysical ResearchLetters vol 21 no 8 pp 677ndash680 1994

[33] T R Sivaramakrishnan and P S Prakash Rao ldquoSea-breezefeatures over Sriharikota Indiardquo Meteorological Magazine vol118 no 1400 pp 64ndash67 1989

[34] NA SontakkeN Singh andHN Singh ldquoInstrumental periodrainfall series of the Indian region (AD 1813ndash2005) revisedreconstruction update and analysisrdquoHolocene vol 18 no 7 pp1055ndash1066 2008

Submit your manuscripts athttpwwwhindawicom

Forestry ResearchInternational Journal of

Hindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

Environmental and Public Health

Journal of

Hindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

Hindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

EcosystemsJournal of

Hindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

MeteorologyAdvances in

EcologyInternational Journal of

Hindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

Marine BiologyJournal of

Hindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

Hindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom

Applied ampEnvironmentalSoil Science

Volume 2014

Advances in

Hindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

Environmental Chemistry

Atmospheric SciencesInternational Journal of

Hindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

Hindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

Waste ManagementJournal of

Hindawi Publishing Corporation httpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

International Journal of

Geophysics

Hindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

Geological ResearchJournal of

EarthquakesJournal of

Hindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

BiodiversityInternational Journal of

Hindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

ScientificaHindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

OceanographyInternational Journal of

Hindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

The Scientific World JournalHindawi Publishing Corporation httpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

Journal of Computational Environmental SciencesHindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

Hindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

ClimatologyJournal of

Page 12: Research Article Climatic Variation at Thumba Equatorial Rocket Launching Station, India · 2016. 8. 22. · Research Article Climatic Variation at Thumba Equatorial Rocket Launching

12 Journal of Climatology

Table 6 Linear trends of 11 year moving averaged data on various inter-annual variability Level of significance was choosen at 005 toread out critical 119905 values (119905

119888

) corresponding to the degree of freedom (df ) If 119903 gt 05 strong 119903 lt 05 weak 119905 gt 119905119888

significant and 119905 lt 119905119888

notsignificant

No Interannualvariability in 119903

Slope (119889119910119889119909) plusmnerror Calculated 119905 df Comments Data missing

1 Mean temperature 0891 0013 plusmn 0001 1208154 38Strong and

significant (Figures7(a) and 7(b))

1974 1975 19761982 and 1992

2 Mean maximumtemperature 0725 00121 plusmn 0002 650392 38

Strong andsignificant

(Figures 8(a) and 8(b)

1974 1975 19761982 and 1992

3 Mean minimumtemperature 0952 0014 plusmn 0000 1929677 38

Strong andsignificant

(Figures 9(a) and9(b))

1974 1975 19761982 and 1992

4 Mean temperaturerange minus0190 minus0002 plusmn 0002 minus119078 38

Weak and notsignificant

(Figure 10(a))

1974 1975 19761982 and 1992

5South West

monsoon rainfall(Thumba)

minus0477 minus2145 plusmn 0616 minus3483 41 Weak and significant(Figure 14) 1964 1998

6North East

monsoon rainfall(Thumba)

0848 3928 plusmn 0393 10000 39 Strong and significant(Figure 15)

1964 1977 1992and 1998

7South West

monsoon rainfall(Kerala)

minus0721 minus6149 plusmn 0934 minus6587 40 Strong and significant(Figure 16)

1964 2007 and2008

8North East

monsoon rainfall(Kerala)

0737 3430 plusmn 0491 6986 41 Strong and significant(Figure 17) 1964 2008

9South West

monsoon surfacepressure

0445 0006 plusmn 0002 2899 34 Weak and significant(Figure 18) 1964 to 1972

10North East

monsoon surfacepressure

minus0616 0010 plusmn 0002 minus4555 34 Strong and significant(Figure 19) 1964 to 1972

123456789

101112

(mon

th)

1964 1966 1968 1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008

No data

20181614121008060402minus00minus02minus04minus06minus08minus10minus12minus14minus16minus18minus20

(∘C)

Figure 12 Minimum temperature anomaly

sea breeze is known [33] As the station is of coastal in originthe occurrence of daily maximum temperature is very muchlinked to the setting and strong establishment of sea breezefront towards the land areas

Mean monthly anomaly structures in minimum max-imum and mean temperatures are presented in time sec-tion contour diagrams (Figures 11 12 and 13) All contour

depictions show well-marked temperature increase duringthe course of years and are so pronounced after 1976

342 Interannual Variability in SW and NE Monsoon Rain-fall and Surface Pressure Interannual variability in rainfalland surface pressure particularly for SW monsoon and NEmonsoon are studied A decrease in trend in SW monsoon

Journal of Climatology 13

123456789

101112

(mon

th)

(year)1964 1966 1968 1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008

No data

14121008060402

(∘C)

minus00minus02minus04minus06minus08minus10minus12minus14minus16minus18minus20minus22

Figure 13 Mean temperature anomaly

300400500600700800900

100011001200130014001500

1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010(year)

Rain

fall

(mm

)

dydx = minus2145

r = minus0477

Figure 14 South West monsoon rainfall over Thumba

(year)

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1000

1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

Rain

fall

(mm

)

dydx = 3928

r = 0848

Figure 15 North East monsoon rainfall over Thumba

and an increase in trend in NE monsoons are the observedfeatures over the station with decadal variability of (minus215 plusmn62)mm and (+393 plusmn 39)mm respectively (Figures 14and 15) Analysis by considering initial rainfall values (atthe beginning year on the fitted straight line) of SouthWest monsoon North East monsoon corresponding slopeof them as 817822mm 296535mm minus215mmdecade and

(year)

1000

1250

1500

1750

2000

2250

2500

2750

3000

3250

1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

Rain

fall

(mm

)

dydx = minus6149r = minus0721

Figure 16 South West monsoon rainfall over Kerala

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1000

1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010(year)

Rain

fall

(mm

)

r = 0737

dydx = 3430

Figure 17 North East monsoon rainfall over Kerala

393mmdecade respectively shows the likelihood exceedof North East monsoon rainfall over South West monsoonover this region after the year 2050 if the current trendcontinues Similar analyses are carried out on the slot 1965to 2007 for the Kerala meteorological subdivision from thelongest instrumental rainfall series of the Indian regions(1813ndash2006) ([34] httpwwwtropmetresin) The actualrainfall amount over Kerala during 2007 is obtained from the

14 Journal of Climatology

10070100751008010085100901009510100

Pres

sure

(mb)

dydx = 00061r = 04452

(a)

101214161820

1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008100012501500175020002250

Standard deviationNumber of observations

(year)

Stan

dard

de

viat

ion

(mb)

No

of o

bser

vatio

ns

(b)

Figure 18 (a) Interannual variability in surface pressure for SouthWest monsoon season along with (b) standard deviation andnumber of observations

100801008510090100951010010105101101011510120

Pres

sure

(mb)

dydx = minus0010r = minus0616

(a)

10

15

20

25

1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008500700900110013001500

Standard deviationNo of observations

(year)

Stan

dard

de

viat

ion

(mb)

No

of o

bser

vatio

ns

(b)

Figure 19 (a) Interannual variability in surface pressure for NorthEastmonsoon season alongwith (b) standard deviation and numberof observations

quarterly journal theMAUSAM (July 2008 andOctober 2008issues) Decadal variations show a decreasing trend in SWmonsoon by (minus615 plusmn 93)mm and increasing trend in NEmonsoon by (+340 plusmn 49)mm (Figures 16 and 17)

Interannual variability in surface pressure was derivedand depicted for SW monsoon (Figure 18) and NE monsoon(Figure 19) For this every hourly data available since 1973

was subjected to mean monthly value computation Numberof observations available ranges from 1100 to 2245 in SWmonsoon and 500 to 1495 in NE monsoon respectivelyand provided along with the standard deviation values inthe above figures Since atmospheric pressure is a highlystabilized property over a region for a particular season thedecadal trend variability observed is (+006 plusmn 002)mb and(ndash010plusmn002)mb for SWmonsoon andNEmonsoon respec-tively The positive (increase) and negative (decrease) inter-annual trends observed in SW monsoon and NE monsoonrespectively might have contributed possible implications inthe development of associated synoptic scale meteorologicalsystems (position and orientation of troughsridges and lowpressures) and thereby corresponding decrease and increasein SWmonsoon and NE monsoon rainfall trends

4 Conclusion

Long-term surface meteorological records from TERLS werecollected and analysed to study the long-term changes inoverall climatology climatology pertained to a particulartime of observation mean daily climatology in temperatureinterannual variability in temperature interannual variabilityin SW andNEmonsoon rainfall andmeanmonthly anomalystructure in temperature Results on various analyses showstrong and vivid features contributed by climate change Thesalient features observed contributed by climate change are asfollows

(1) All the temperatures show increase in their behaviourwith slight decrease in RH between the presentclimatology and past climatology

(2) Steadiness of wind decreases especially in non-SWmonsoon months which gives an indirect signatureof possible modifications in meso-scale systems

(3) High cloud climatology increases and thereby proba-ble modifications in radiation budget time of occur-rence of maximum and minimum temperatures

(4) Daily statistics for 365 days show more than 80exceedance in present climatology in comparison topast in minimum maximum andmean temperature

(5) Interannual variability analysis in mean temperaturefor this tropical coastal station shows +13∘C100 yearswhich is same as that of global ocean rate

(6) Observed interannual rainfall variability in SWmon-soon and North East monsoon shows decrease intrend by ndash2145mmdecade and increase in trendby +393mmdecade respectively Prognosis on thisobservation points out the likelihood exceedance ofNE monsoon rainfall over the South West monsoonafter the year 2050 for the station But it is prejudicialto infer that the rainfall increase in NE monsoon cancompensate the forecasted decrease in SWmonsoonsince NE monsoon is mostly of heavy rainfall innature as a result of meso-scale convective systemsSuch rainfall runoff is very fast than the slow waterinfiltration feature in association with SW monsoon

Journal of Climatology 15

rainfall which is essential for irrigation and agricul-tural needs

(7) Decadal variability in surface pressure has shown+006mb and minus010mb for SW monsoon and NEmonsoon respectively

The imprints due to climate change on various meteoro-logical parameters over this coastal station proved that theregion also faces vulnerable situation due to the phenom-ena and therefore necessary engineeringmethodssocioeco-nomic steps are to be undertaken

Acknowledgments

The availability of this unique data for a continuous periodof 45 years is the outcome of concerted and whole heartedefforts put in by the staffs of TERLSIndia MeteorologicalDepartment It is a pleasure to acknowledge with esteemedgratitude the team that worked since 1963 at the TERLSThumba whose efforts have yielded the voluminous uniquedata bank which is available for investigations The authorsare extremely grateful to Dr K Krishnamoorthy DirectorSpace Physics Laboratory VSSC and the reviewers for theirvaluable comments that helped to improve the paper to thefinal form

References

[1] N Oreskes ldquoThe scientific consensus on climatic changerdquoScience vol 306 p 1686 2004

[2] H Ayyar Effect of Pollution on Weather Science ReporterCouncil of Scientific and Industrial Research (CSIR) 1973

[3] K Rupa Kumar A K Sahai K Krishna Kumar et al ldquoHigh-resolution climate change scenarios for India for the 21stcenturyrdquo Current Science vol 90 no 3 pp 334ndash345 2006

[4] P Brohan J J Kennedy I Harris S F B Tett and P DJones ldquoUncertainty estimates in regional and global observedtemperature changes a new data set from 1850rdquo Journal ofGeophysical Research D vol 111 no 12 Article IDD12106 2006

[5] T M Smith and R W Reynolds ldquoA global merged land-air-sea surface temperature reconstruction based on historicalobservations (1880ndash1997)rdquo Journal of Climate vol 18 no 12 pp2021ndash2036 2005

[6] K M Lugina P Y Groisman K Y Vinnikov V V Koknaevaand N A Speranskaya ldquoMonthly surface air temperature timeseries area-averaged over the 30-degree latitudinal belts of theglobe 1881-2004 In Trends a compendium of data on globalchangerdquo Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Centre OakRidge National Laboratory US Department of Energy OakRidge TennUSA 2005 httpcdiacesdornlgovtrendstempluginaluginahtml

[7] J Hansen R RuedyM Sato et al ldquoA closer look atUnited Statesand global surface temperature changerdquo Journal of GeophysicalResearch D vol 106 no 20 pp 23947ndash23963 2001

[8] S Solomon D Quin M Manning et al ldquoContribution ofworking group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the IPCCrdquoTech Rep IPCC-AR4 2007

[9] R C Balling Jr and S W Brazel ldquoRecent changes in PhoenixArizona summertime diurnal precipitation patternsrdquo Theoreti-cal and Applied Climatology vol 38 no 1 pp 50ndash54 1987

[10] R Bornstein and Q Lin ldquoUrban heat islands and summertimeconvective thunderstorms in Atlanta three case studiesrdquoAtmo-spheric Environment vol 34 no 3 pp 507ndash516 2000

[11] P G Dixon and T L Mote ldquoPatterns and cause of Atlandarsquosurban heat island-initiated precipitationrdquo Journal of AppliedMeteorology vol 42 pp 1273ndash1284 2003

[12] F Fujibe ldquoLong-term surface wind changes in the Tokyometropolitan area in the afternoon of sunny days in the warmseasonrdquo Journal of the Meteorological Society of Japan vol 81no 1 pp 141ndash149 2003

[13] T Inoue and F Kimura ldquoUrban effects on low-level cloudsaround the Tokyo metropolitan area on clear summer daysrdquoGeophysical Research Letters vol 31 no 5 Article ID L051032004

[14] JM ShepherdH Pierce andA J Negri ldquoRainfallmodificationby major urban areas observations from spaceborne rain radaron the TRMM satelliterdquo Journal of Applied Meteorology vol 41no 7 pp 689ndash701 2002

[15] C Price SMichaelides S Pashiardis and P Alpert ldquoLong termchanges in diurnal temperature range in Cyprusrdquo AtmosphericResearch vol 51 no 2 pp 85ndash98 1999

[16] H N Singh S D Patil S D Bansod and N Singh ldquoSeasonalvariability in mean sea level pressure extremes over the Indianregionrdquo Atmospheric Research vol 101 no 1-2 pp 102ndash111 2011

[17] J Kingwell J Shimizu K Narita H Kawabata and I ShimizuldquoWeather factors affecting rocket operations a review and casehistoryrdquo American Meteorological Society vol 72 pp 778ndash7931991

[18] R E Turner and C K Hill Terrestrial Environment (Climatic)Guidlines for Use in Aerospace Vehicle Development 1982 Revi-sion Technical Memor 82473 National Aeronautics and SpaceAdministration 1982

[19] ldquoSpace Research in Indiardquo in Proceedings of the 38th COSPARMeeting pp 199ndash204 Bremen Germeny 2010

[20] P V Joseph and A Simon ldquoWeakening trend of the southwestmonsoon current through peninsular India from 1950 to thepresentrdquo Current Science vol 89 no 4 pp 687ndash694 2005

[21] S K Dash J R Kumar and M S Shekhar ldquoOn the decreasingfrequency of monsoon depressions over the Indian regionrdquoCurrent Science vol 86 no 10 pp 1404ndash1411 2004

[22] K N Krishnakumar G S L H V Prasada Rao and C SGopakumar ldquoRainfall trends in twentieth century over KeralaIndiardquo Atmospheric Environment vol 43 no 11 pp 1940ndash19442009

[23] National Council of Educational Research and Training(NCERT) India Text book of physicsmdashpart I for class 11 2006

[24] K E Trenberth ldquoRecent observed interdecadal climate changesin the Northern Hemisphererdquo Bulletin of the American Meteo-rological Society vol 71 no 7 pp 988ndash993 1990

[25] T K Karl H F Diaz and G Kukla ldquoUrbanization its detectionand effect in the United States climate recordrdquo Journal ofClimate vol 1 pp 1099ndash1123 1988

[26] M Rebetez andM Beniston ldquoChanges in sunshine duration arecorrelated with changes in daily temperature range this centuryan analysis of Swiss climatological datardquo Geophysical ResearchLetters vol 25 no 19 pp 3611ndash3613 1998

[27] K V S Namboodiri P K Dileep and K Mammen ldquoWindsteadiness up to 35 km and its variability before the SouthWestMonsoon onset and the withdrawalrdquoMausam vol 63 pp 275ndash282 2012

16 Journal of Climatology

[28] PMinnis A J Kirk P Rabindra and P Dung ldquoContrails cirrustrends and climaterdquo Journal of Climate vol 17 pp 1671ndash16852004

[29] C S Zerefos K Eleftheratos D S Balis P Zanis G Tselioudisand C Meleti ldquoEvidence of impact of aviation on cirrus cloudformationrdquoAtmospheric Chemistry and Physics vol 3 no 5 pp1633ndash1644 2003

[30] K Eleftheratos C S Zerefos C Varotsos and I KapsomenakisldquoInterannual variability of cirrus clouds in the tropics in elnino southern oscillation (ENSO) regions based on interna-tional satellite cloud climatology project (ISCCP) satellite datardquoInternational Journal of Remote Sensing vol 32 no 21 pp 6395ndash6405 2011

[31] K E Trenberth P D Jones and P Ambenje ldquoObservationssurface and climate changerdquo in Climate Change 2007 ThePhysical Science Basis Contribution of working group I to theFourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel onClimate Change S Solomon D Qin and M Manning EdsCambridge University Press Cambridge UK 2007

[32] K R Kumar K K Kumar and G B Pant ldquoDiurnal asymmetryof surface temperature trends over Indiardquo Geophysical ResearchLetters vol 21 no 8 pp 677ndash680 1994

[33] T R Sivaramakrishnan and P S Prakash Rao ldquoSea-breezefeatures over Sriharikota Indiardquo Meteorological Magazine vol118 no 1400 pp 64ndash67 1989

[34] NA SontakkeN Singh andHN Singh ldquoInstrumental periodrainfall series of the Indian region (AD 1813ndash2005) revisedreconstruction update and analysisrdquoHolocene vol 18 no 7 pp1055ndash1066 2008

Submit your manuscripts athttpwwwhindawicom

Forestry ResearchInternational Journal of

Hindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

Environmental and Public Health

Journal of

Hindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

Hindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

EcosystemsJournal of

Hindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

MeteorologyAdvances in

EcologyInternational Journal of

Hindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

Marine BiologyJournal of

Hindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

Hindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom

Applied ampEnvironmentalSoil Science

Volume 2014

Advances in

Hindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

Environmental Chemistry

Atmospheric SciencesInternational Journal of

Hindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

Hindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

Waste ManagementJournal of

Hindawi Publishing Corporation httpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

International Journal of

Geophysics

Hindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

Geological ResearchJournal of

EarthquakesJournal of

Hindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

BiodiversityInternational Journal of

Hindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

ScientificaHindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

OceanographyInternational Journal of

Hindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

The Scientific World JournalHindawi Publishing Corporation httpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

Journal of Computational Environmental SciencesHindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

Hindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

ClimatologyJournal of

Page 13: Research Article Climatic Variation at Thumba Equatorial Rocket Launching Station, India · 2016. 8. 22. · Research Article Climatic Variation at Thumba Equatorial Rocket Launching

Journal of Climatology 13

123456789

101112

(mon

th)

(year)1964 1966 1968 1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008

No data

14121008060402

(∘C)

minus00minus02minus04minus06minus08minus10minus12minus14minus16minus18minus20minus22

Figure 13 Mean temperature anomaly

300400500600700800900

100011001200130014001500

1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010(year)

Rain

fall

(mm

)

dydx = minus2145

r = minus0477

Figure 14 South West monsoon rainfall over Thumba

(year)

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1000

1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

Rain

fall

(mm

)

dydx = 3928

r = 0848

Figure 15 North East monsoon rainfall over Thumba

and an increase in trend in NE monsoons are the observedfeatures over the station with decadal variability of (minus215 plusmn62)mm and (+393 plusmn 39)mm respectively (Figures 14and 15) Analysis by considering initial rainfall values (atthe beginning year on the fitted straight line) of SouthWest monsoon North East monsoon corresponding slopeof them as 817822mm 296535mm minus215mmdecade and

(year)

1000

1250

1500

1750

2000

2250

2500

2750

3000

3250

1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

Rain

fall

(mm

)

dydx = minus6149r = minus0721

Figure 16 South West monsoon rainfall over Kerala

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1000

1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010(year)

Rain

fall

(mm

)

r = 0737

dydx = 3430

Figure 17 North East monsoon rainfall over Kerala

393mmdecade respectively shows the likelihood exceedof North East monsoon rainfall over South West monsoonover this region after the year 2050 if the current trendcontinues Similar analyses are carried out on the slot 1965to 2007 for the Kerala meteorological subdivision from thelongest instrumental rainfall series of the Indian regions(1813ndash2006) ([34] httpwwwtropmetresin) The actualrainfall amount over Kerala during 2007 is obtained from the

14 Journal of Climatology

10070100751008010085100901009510100

Pres

sure

(mb)

dydx = 00061r = 04452

(a)

101214161820

1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008100012501500175020002250

Standard deviationNumber of observations

(year)

Stan

dard

de

viat

ion

(mb)

No

of o

bser

vatio

ns

(b)

Figure 18 (a) Interannual variability in surface pressure for SouthWest monsoon season along with (b) standard deviation andnumber of observations

100801008510090100951010010105101101011510120

Pres

sure

(mb)

dydx = minus0010r = minus0616

(a)

10

15

20

25

1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008500700900110013001500

Standard deviationNo of observations

(year)

Stan

dard

de

viat

ion

(mb)

No

of o

bser

vatio

ns

(b)

Figure 19 (a) Interannual variability in surface pressure for NorthEastmonsoon season alongwith (b) standard deviation and numberof observations

quarterly journal theMAUSAM (July 2008 andOctober 2008issues) Decadal variations show a decreasing trend in SWmonsoon by (minus615 plusmn 93)mm and increasing trend in NEmonsoon by (+340 plusmn 49)mm (Figures 16 and 17)

Interannual variability in surface pressure was derivedand depicted for SW monsoon (Figure 18) and NE monsoon(Figure 19) For this every hourly data available since 1973

was subjected to mean monthly value computation Numberof observations available ranges from 1100 to 2245 in SWmonsoon and 500 to 1495 in NE monsoon respectivelyand provided along with the standard deviation values inthe above figures Since atmospheric pressure is a highlystabilized property over a region for a particular season thedecadal trend variability observed is (+006 plusmn 002)mb and(ndash010plusmn002)mb for SWmonsoon andNEmonsoon respec-tively The positive (increase) and negative (decrease) inter-annual trends observed in SW monsoon and NE monsoonrespectively might have contributed possible implications inthe development of associated synoptic scale meteorologicalsystems (position and orientation of troughsridges and lowpressures) and thereby corresponding decrease and increasein SWmonsoon and NE monsoon rainfall trends

4 Conclusion

Long-term surface meteorological records from TERLS werecollected and analysed to study the long-term changes inoverall climatology climatology pertained to a particulartime of observation mean daily climatology in temperatureinterannual variability in temperature interannual variabilityin SW andNEmonsoon rainfall andmeanmonthly anomalystructure in temperature Results on various analyses showstrong and vivid features contributed by climate change Thesalient features observed contributed by climate change are asfollows

(1) All the temperatures show increase in their behaviourwith slight decrease in RH between the presentclimatology and past climatology

(2) Steadiness of wind decreases especially in non-SWmonsoon months which gives an indirect signatureof possible modifications in meso-scale systems

(3) High cloud climatology increases and thereby proba-ble modifications in radiation budget time of occur-rence of maximum and minimum temperatures

(4) Daily statistics for 365 days show more than 80exceedance in present climatology in comparison topast in minimum maximum andmean temperature

(5) Interannual variability analysis in mean temperaturefor this tropical coastal station shows +13∘C100 yearswhich is same as that of global ocean rate

(6) Observed interannual rainfall variability in SWmon-soon and North East monsoon shows decrease intrend by ndash2145mmdecade and increase in trendby +393mmdecade respectively Prognosis on thisobservation points out the likelihood exceedance ofNE monsoon rainfall over the South West monsoonafter the year 2050 for the station But it is prejudicialto infer that the rainfall increase in NE monsoon cancompensate the forecasted decrease in SWmonsoonsince NE monsoon is mostly of heavy rainfall innature as a result of meso-scale convective systemsSuch rainfall runoff is very fast than the slow waterinfiltration feature in association with SW monsoon

Journal of Climatology 15

rainfall which is essential for irrigation and agricul-tural needs

(7) Decadal variability in surface pressure has shown+006mb and minus010mb for SW monsoon and NEmonsoon respectively

The imprints due to climate change on various meteoro-logical parameters over this coastal station proved that theregion also faces vulnerable situation due to the phenom-ena and therefore necessary engineeringmethodssocioeco-nomic steps are to be undertaken

Acknowledgments

The availability of this unique data for a continuous periodof 45 years is the outcome of concerted and whole heartedefforts put in by the staffs of TERLSIndia MeteorologicalDepartment It is a pleasure to acknowledge with esteemedgratitude the team that worked since 1963 at the TERLSThumba whose efforts have yielded the voluminous uniquedata bank which is available for investigations The authorsare extremely grateful to Dr K Krishnamoorthy DirectorSpace Physics Laboratory VSSC and the reviewers for theirvaluable comments that helped to improve the paper to thefinal form

References

[1] N Oreskes ldquoThe scientific consensus on climatic changerdquoScience vol 306 p 1686 2004

[2] H Ayyar Effect of Pollution on Weather Science ReporterCouncil of Scientific and Industrial Research (CSIR) 1973

[3] K Rupa Kumar A K Sahai K Krishna Kumar et al ldquoHigh-resolution climate change scenarios for India for the 21stcenturyrdquo Current Science vol 90 no 3 pp 334ndash345 2006

[4] P Brohan J J Kennedy I Harris S F B Tett and P DJones ldquoUncertainty estimates in regional and global observedtemperature changes a new data set from 1850rdquo Journal ofGeophysical Research D vol 111 no 12 Article IDD12106 2006

[5] T M Smith and R W Reynolds ldquoA global merged land-air-sea surface temperature reconstruction based on historicalobservations (1880ndash1997)rdquo Journal of Climate vol 18 no 12 pp2021ndash2036 2005

[6] K M Lugina P Y Groisman K Y Vinnikov V V Koknaevaand N A Speranskaya ldquoMonthly surface air temperature timeseries area-averaged over the 30-degree latitudinal belts of theglobe 1881-2004 In Trends a compendium of data on globalchangerdquo Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Centre OakRidge National Laboratory US Department of Energy OakRidge TennUSA 2005 httpcdiacesdornlgovtrendstempluginaluginahtml

[7] J Hansen R RuedyM Sato et al ldquoA closer look atUnited Statesand global surface temperature changerdquo Journal of GeophysicalResearch D vol 106 no 20 pp 23947ndash23963 2001

[8] S Solomon D Quin M Manning et al ldquoContribution ofworking group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the IPCCrdquoTech Rep IPCC-AR4 2007

[9] R C Balling Jr and S W Brazel ldquoRecent changes in PhoenixArizona summertime diurnal precipitation patternsrdquo Theoreti-cal and Applied Climatology vol 38 no 1 pp 50ndash54 1987

[10] R Bornstein and Q Lin ldquoUrban heat islands and summertimeconvective thunderstorms in Atlanta three case studiesrdquoAtmo-spheric Environment vol 34 no 3 pp 507ndash516 2000

[11] P G Dixon and T L Mote ldquoPatterns and cause of Atlandarsquosurban heat island-initiated precipitationrdquo Journal of AppliedMeteorology vol 42 pp 1273ndash1284 2003

[12] F Fujibe ldquoLong-term surface wind changes in the Tokyometropolitan area in the afternoon of sunny days in the warmseasonrdquo Journal of the Meteorological Society of Japan vol 81no 1 pp 141ndash149 2003

[13] T Inoue and F Kimura ldquoUrban effects on low-level cloudsaround the Tokyo metropolitan area on clear summer daysrdquoGeophysical Research Letters vol 31 no 5 Article ID L051032004

[14] JM ShepherdH Pierce andA J Negri ldquoRainfallmodificationby major urban areas observations from spaceborne rain radaron the TRMM satelliterdquo Journal of Applied Meteorology vol 41no 7 pp 689ndash701 2002

[15] C Price SMichaelides S Pashiardis and P Alpert ldquoLong termchanges in diurnal temperature range in Cyprusrdquo AtmosphericResearch vol 51 no 2 pp 85ndash98 1999

[16] H N Singh S D Patil S D Bansod and N Singh ldquoSeasonalvariability in mean sea level pressure extremes over the Indianregionrdquo Atmospheric Research vol 101 no 1-2 pp 102ndash111 2011

[17] J Kingwell J Shimizu K Narita H Kawabata and I ShimizuldquoWeather factors affecting rocket operations a review and casehistoryrdquo American Meteorological Society vol 72 pp 778ndash7931991

[18] R E Turner and C K Hill Terrestrial Environment (Climatic)Guidlines for Use in Aerospace Vehicle Development 1982 Revi-sion Technical Memor 82473 National Aeronautics and SpaceAdministration 1982

[19] ldquoSpace Research in Indiardquo in Proceedings of the 38th COSPARMeeting pp 199ndash204 Bremen Germeny 2010

[20] P V Joseph and A Simon ldquoWeakening trend of the southwestmonsoon current through peninsular India from 1950 to thepresentrdquo Current Science vol 89 no 4 pp 687ndash694 2005

[21] S K Dash J R Kumar and M S Shekhar ldquoOn the decreasingfrequency of monsoon depressions over the Indian regionrdquoCurrent Science vol 86 no 10 pp 1404ndash1411 2004

[22] K N Krishnakumar G S L H V Prasada Rao and C SGopakumar ldquoRainfall trends in twentieth century over KeralaIndiardquo Atmospheric Environment vol 43 no 11 pp 1940ndash19442009

[23] National Council of Educational Research and Training(NCERT) India Text book of physicsmdashpart I for class 11 2006

[24] K E Trenberth ldquoRecent observed interdecadal climate changesin the Northern Hemisphererdquo Bulletin of the American Meteo-rological Society vol 71 no 7 pp 988ndash993 1990

[25] T K Karl H F Diaz and G Kukla ldquoUrbanization its detectionand effect in the United States climate recordrdquo Journal ofClimate vol 1 pp 1099ndash1123 1988

[26] M Rebetez andM Beniston ldquoChanges in sunshine duration arecorrelated with changes in daily temperature range this centuryan analysis of Swiss climatological datardquo Geophysical ResearchLetters vol 25 no 19 pp 3611ndash3613 1998

[27] K V S Namboodiri P K Dileep and K Mammen ldquoWindsteadiness up to 35 km and its variability before the SouthWestMonsoon onset and the withdrawalrdquoMausam vol 63 pp 275ndash282 2012

16 Journal of Climatology

[28] PMinnis A J Kirk P Rabindra and P Dung ldquoContrails cirrustrends and climaterdquo Journal of Climate vol 17 pp 1671ndash16852004

[29] C S Zerefos K Eleftheratos D S Balis P Zanis G Tselioudisand C Meleti ldquoEvidence of impact of aviation on cirrus cloudformationrdquoAtmospheric Chemistry and Physics vol 3 no 5 pp1633ndash1644 2003

[30] K Eleftheratos C S Zerefos C Varotsos and I KapsomenakisldquoInterannual variability of cirrus clouds in the tropics in elnino southern oscillation (ENSO) regions based on interna-tional satellite cloud climatology project (ISCCP) satellite datardquoInternational Journal of Remote Sensing vol 32 no 21 pp 6395ndash6405 2011

[31] K E Trenberth P D Jones and P Ambenje ldquoObservationssurface and climate changerdquo in Climate Change 2007 ThePhysical Science Basis Contribution of working group I to theFourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel onClimate Change S Solomon D Qin and M Manning EdsCambridge University Press Cambridge UK 2007

[32] K R Kumar K K Kumar and G B Pant ldquoDiurnal asymmetryof surface temperature trends over Indiardquo Geophysical ResearchLetters vol 21 no 8 pp 677ndash680 1994

[33] T R Sivaramakrishnan and P S Prakash Rao ldquoSea-breezefeatures over Sriharikota Indiardquo Meteorological Magazine vol118 no 1400 pp 64ndash67 1989

[34] NA SontakkeN Singh andHN Singh ldquoInstrumental periodrainfall series of the Indian region (AD 1813ndash2005) revisedreconstruction update and analysisrdquoHolocene vol 18 no 7 pp1055ndash1066 2008

Submit your manuscripts athttpwwwhindawicom

Forestry ResearchInternational Journal of

Hindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

Environmental and Public Health

Journal of

Hindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

Hindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

EcosystemsJournal of

Hindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

MeteorologyAdvances in

EcologyInternational Journal of

Hindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

Marine BiologyJournal of

Hindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

Hindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom

Applied ampEnvironmentalSoil Science

Volume 2014

Advances in

Hindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

Environmental Chemistry

Atmospheric SciencesInternational Journal of

Hindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

Hindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

Waste ManagementJournal of

Hindawi Publishing Corporation httpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

International Journal of

Geophysics

Hindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

Geological ResearchJournal of

EarthquakesJournal of

Hindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

BiodiversityInternational Journal of

Hindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

ScientificaHindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

OceanographyInternational Journal of

Hindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

The Scientific World JournalHindawi Publishing Corporation httpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

Journal of Computational Environmental SciencesHindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

Hindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

ClimatologyJournal of

Page 14: Research Article Climatic Variation at Thumba Equatorial Rocket Launching Station, India · 2016. 8. 22. · Research Article Climatic Variation at Thumba Equatorial Rocket Launching

14 Journal of Climatology

10070100751008010085100901009510100

Pres

sure

(mb)

dydx = 00061r = 04452

(a)

101214161820

1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008100012501500175020002250

Standard deviationNumber of observations

(year)

Stan

dard

de

viat

ion

(mb)

No

of o

bser

vatio

ns

(b)

Figure 18 (a) Interannual variability in surface pressure for SouthWest monsoon season along with (b) standard deviation andnumber of observations

100801008510090100951010010105101101011510120

Pres

sure

(mb)

dydx = minus0010r = minus0616

(a)

10

15

20

25

1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008500700900110013001500

Standard deviationNo of observations

(year)

Stan

dard

de

viat

ion

(mb)

No

of o

bser

vatio

ns

(b)

Figure 19 (a) Interannual variability in surface pressure for NorthEastmonsoon season alongwith (b) standard deviation and numberof observations

quarterly journal theMAUSAM (July 2008 andOctober 2008issues) Decadal variations show a decreasing trend in SWmonsoon by (minus615 plusmn 93)mm and increasing trend in NEmonsoon by (+340 plusmn 49)mm (Figures 16 and 17)

Interannual variability in surface pressure was derivedand depicted for SW monsoon (Figure 18) and NE monsoon(Figure 19) For this every hourly data available since 1973

was subjected to mean monthly value computation Numberof observations available ranges from 1100 to 2245 in SWmonsoon and 500 to 1495 in NE monsoon respectivelyand provided along with the standard deviation values inthe above figures Since atmospheric pressure is a highlystabilized property over a region for a particular season thedecadal trend variability observed is (+006 plusmn 002)mb and(ndash010plusmn002)mb for SWmonsoon andNEmonsoon respec-tively The positive (increase) and negative (decrease) inter-annual trends observed in SW monsoon and NE monsoonrespectively might have contributed possible implications inthe development of associated synoptic scale meteorologicalsystems (position and orientation of troughsridges and lowpressures) and thereby corresponding decrease and increasein SWmonsoon and NE monsoon rainfall trends

4 Conclusion

Long-term surface meteorological records from TERLS werecollected and analysed to study the long-term changes inoverall climatology climatology pertained to a particulartime of observation mean daily climatology in temperatureinterannual variability in temperature interannual variabilityin SW andNEmonsoon rainfall andmeanmonthly anomalystructure in temperature Results on various analyses showstrong and vivid features contributed by climate change Thesalient features observed contributed by climate change are asfollows

(1) All the temperatures show increase in their behaviourwith slight decrease in RH between the presentclimatology and past climatology

(2) Steadiness of wind decreases especially in non-SWmonsoon months which gives an indirect signatureof possible modifications in meso-scale systems

(3) High cloud climatology increases and thereby proba-ble modifications in radiation budget time of occur-rence of maximum and minimum temperatures

(4) Daily statistics for 365 days show more than 80exceedance in present climatology in comparison topast in minimum maximum andmean temperature

(5) Interannual variability analysis in mean temperaturefor this tropical coastal station shows +13∘C100 yearswhich is same as that of global ocean rate

(6) Observed interannual rainfall variability in SWmon-soon and North East monsoon shows decrease intrend by ndash2145mmdecade and increase in trendby +393mmdecade respectively Prognosis on thisobservation points out the likelihood exceedance ofNE monsoon rainfall over the South West monsoonafter the year 2050 for the station But it is prejudicialto infer that the rainfall increase in NE monsoon cancompensate the forecasted decrease in SWmonsoonsince NE monsoon is mostly of heavy rainfall innature as a result of meso-scale convective systemsSuch rainfall runoff is very fast than the slow waterinfiltration feature in association with SW monsoon

Journal of Climatology 15

rainfall which is essential for irrigation and agricul-tural needs

(7) Decadal variability in surface pressure has shown+006mb and minus010mb for SW monsoon and NEmonsoon respectively

The imprints due to climate change on various meteoro-logical parameters over this coastal station proved that theregion also faces vulnerable situation due to the phenom-ena and therefore necessary engineeringmethodssocioeco-nomic steps are to be undertaken

Acknowledgments

The availability of this unique data for a continuous periodof 45 years is the outcome of concerted and whole heartedefforts put in by the staffs of TERLSIndia MeteorologicalDepartment It is a pleasure to acknowledge with esteemedgratitude the team that worked since 1963 at the TERLSThumba whose efforts have yielded the voluminous uniquedata bank which is available for investigations The authorsare extremely grateful to Dr K Krishnamoorthy DirectorSpace Physics Laboratory VSSC and the reviewers for theirvaluable comments that helped to improve the paper to thefinal form

References

[1] N Oreskes ldquoThe scientific consensus on climatic changerdquoScience vol 306 p 1686 2004

[2] H Ayyar Effect of Pollution on Weather Science ReporterCouncil of Scientific and Industrial Research (CSIR) 1973

[3] K Rupa Kumar A K Sahai K Krishna Kumar et al ldquoHigh-resolution climate change scenarios for India for the 21stcenturyrdquo Current Science vol 90 no 3 pp 334ndash345 2006

[4] P Brohan J J Kennedy I Harris S F B Tett and P DJones ldquoUncertainty estimates in regional and global observedtemperature changes a new data set from 1850rdquo Journal ofGeophysical Research D vol 111 no 12 Article IDD12106 2006

[5] T M Smith and R W Reynolds ldquoA global merged land-air-sea surface temperature reconstruction based on historicalobservations (1880ndash1997)rdquo Journal of Climate vol 18 no 12 pp2021ndash2036 2005

[6] K M Lugina P Y Groisman K Y Vinnikov V V Koknaevaand N A Speranskaya ldquoMonthly surface air temperature timeseries area-averaged over the 30-degree latitudinal belts of theglobe 1881-2004 In Trends a compendium of data on globalchangerdquo Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Centre OakRidge National Laboratory US Department of Energy OakRidge TennUSA 2005 httpcdiacesdornlgovtrendstempluginaluginahtml

[7] J Hansen R RuedyM Sato et al ldquoA closer look atUnited Statesand global surface temperature changerdquo Journal of GeophysicalResearch D vol 106 no 20 pp 23947ndash23963 2001

[8] S Solomon D Quin M Manning et al ldquoContribution ofworking group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the IPCCrdquoTech Rep IPCC-AR4 2007

[9] R C Balling Jr and S W Brazel ldquoRecent changes in PhoenixArizona summertime diurnal precipitation patternsrdquo Theoreti-cal and Applied Climatology vol 38 no 1 pp 50ndash54 1987

[10] R Bornstein and Q Lin ldquoUrban heat islands and summertimeconvective thunderstorms in Atlanta three case studiesrdquoAtmo-spheric Environment vol 34 no 3 pp 507ndash516 2000

[11] P G Dixon and T L Mote ldquoPatterns and cause of Atlandarsquosurban heat island-initiated precipitationrdquo Journal of AppliedMeteorology vol 42 pp 1273ndash1284 2003

[12] F Fujibe ldquoLong-term surface wind changes in the Tokyometropolitan area in the afternoon of sunny days in the warmseasonrdquo Journal of the Meteorological Society of Japan vol 81no 1 pp 141ndash149 2003

[13] T Inoue and F Kimura ldquoUrban effects on low-level cloudsaround the Tokyo metropolitan area on clear summer daysrdquoGeophysical Research Letters vol 31 no 5 Article ID L051032004

[14] JM ShepherdH Pierce andA J Negri ldquoRainfallmodificationby major urban areas observations from spaceborne rain radaron the TRMM satelliterdquo Journal of Applied Meteorology vol 41no 7 pp 689ndash701 2002

[15] C Price SMichaelides S Pashiardis and P Alpert ldquoLong termchanges in diurnal temperature range in Cyprusrdquo AtmosphericResearch vol 51 no 2 pp 85ndash98 1999

[16] H N Singh S D Patil S D Bansod and N Singh ldquoSeasonalvariability in mean sea level pressure extremes over the Indianregionrdquo Atmospheric Research vol 101 no 1-2 pp 102ndash111 2011

[17] J Kingwell J Shimizu K Narita H Kawabata and I ShimizuldquoWeather factors affecting rocket operations a review and casehistoryrdquo American Meteorological Society vol 72 pp 778ndash7931991

[18] R E Turner and C K Hill Terrestrial Environment (Climatic)Guidlines for Use in Aerospace Vehicle Development 1982 Revi-sion Technical Memor 82473 National Aeronautics and SpaceAdministration 1982

[19] ldquoSpace Research in Indiardquo in Proceedings of the 38th COSPARMeeting pp 199ndash204 Bremen Germeny 2010

[20] P V Joseph and A Simon ldquoWeakening trend of the southwestmonsoon current through peninsular India from 1950 to thepresentrdquo Current Science vol 89 no 4 pp 687ndash694 2005

[21] S K Dash J R Kumar and M S Shekhar ldquoOn the decreasingfrequency of monsoon depressions over the Indian regionrdquoCurrent Science vol 86 no 10 pp 1404ndash1411 2004

[22] K N Krishnakumar G S L H V Prasada Rao and C SGopakumar ldquoRainfall trends in twentieth century over KeralaIndiardquo Atmospheric Environment vol 43 no 11 pp 1940ndash19442009

[23] National Council of Educational Research and Training(NCERT) India Text book of physicsmdashpart I for class 11 2006

[24] K E Trenberth ldquoRecent observed interdecadal climate changesin the Northern Hemisphererdquo Bulletin of the American Meteo-rological Society vol 71 no 7 pp 988ndash993 1990

[25] T K Karl H F Diaz and G Kukla ldquoUrbanization its detectionand effect in the United States climate recordrdquo Journal ofClimate vol 1 pp 1099ndash1123 1988

[26] M Rebetez andM Beniston ldquoChanges in sunshine duration arecorrelated with changes in daily temperature range this centuryan analysis of Swiss climatological datardquo Geophysical ResearchLetters vol 25 no 19 pp 3611ndash3613 1998

[27] K V S Namboodiri P K Dileep and K Mammen ldquoWindsteadiness up to 35 km and its variability before the SouthWestMonsoon onset and the withdrawalrdquoMausam vol 63 pp 275ndash282 2012

16 Journal of Climatology

[28] PMinnis A J Kirk P Rabindra and P Dung ldquoContrails cirrustrends and climaterdquo Journal of Climate vol 17 pp 1671ndash16852004

[29] C S Zerefos K Eleftheratos D S Balis P Zanis G Tselioudisand C Meleti ldquoEvidence of impact of aviation on cirrus cloudformationrdquoAtmospheric Chemistry and Physics vol 3 no 5 pp1633ndash1644 2003

[30] K Eleftheratos C S Zerefos C Varotsos and I KapsomenakisldquoInterannual variability of cirrus clouds in the tropics in elnino southern oscillation (ENSO) regions based on interna-tional satellite cloud climatology project (ISCCP) satellite datardquoInternational Journal of Remote Sensing vol 32 no 21 pp 6395ndash6405 2011

[31] K E Trenberth P D Jones and P Ambenje ldquoObservationssurface and climate changerdquo in Climate Change 2007 ThePhysical Science Basis Contribution of working group I to theFourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel onClimate Change S Solomon D Qin and M Manning EdsCambridge University Press Cambridge UK 2007

[32] K R Kumar K K Kumar and G B Pant ldquoDiurnal asymmetryof surface temperature trends over Indiardquo Geophysical ResearchLetters vol 21 no 8 pp 677ndash680 1994

[33] T R Sivaramakrishnan and P S Prakash Rao ldquoSea-breezefeatures over Sriharikota Indiardquo Meteorological Magazine vol118 no 1400 pp 64ndash67 1989

[34] NA SontakkeN Singh andHN Singh ldquoInstrumental periodrainfall series of the Indian region (AD 1813ndash2005) revisedreconstruction update and analysisrdquoHolocene vol 18 no 7 pp1055ndash1066 2008

Submit your manuscripts athttpwwwhindawicom

Forestry ResearchInternational Journal of

Hindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

Environmental and Public Health

Journal of

Hindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

Hindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

EcosystemsJournal of

Hindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

MeteorologyAdvances in

EcologyInternational Journal of

Hindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

Marine BiologyJournal of

Hindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

Hindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom

Applied ampEnvironmentalSoil Science

Volume 2014

Advances in

Hindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

Environmental Chemistry

Atmospheric SciencesInternational Journal of

Hindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

Hindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

Waste ManagementJournal of

Hindawi Publishing Corporation httpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

International Journal of

Geophysics

Hindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

Geological ResearchJournal of

EarthquakesJournal of

Hindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

BiodiversityInternational Journal of

Hindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

ScientificaHindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

OceanographyInternational Journal of

Hindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

The Scientific World JournalHindawi Publishing Corporation httpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

Journal of Computational Environmental SciencesHindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

Hindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

ClimatologyJournal of

Page 15: Research Article Climatic Variation at Thumba Equatorial Rocket Launching Station, India · 2016. 8. 22. · Research Article Climatic Variation at Thumba Equatorial Rocket Launching

Journal of Climatology 15

rainfall which is essential for irrigation and agricul-tural needs

(7) Decadal variability in surface pressure has shown+006mb and minus010mb for SW monsoon and NEmonsoon respectively

The imprints due to climate change on various meteoro-logical parameters over this coastal station proved that theregion also faces vulnerable situation due to the phenom-ena and therefore necessary engineeringmethodssocioeco-nomic steps are to be undertaken

Acknowledgments

The availability of this unique data for a continuous periodof 45 years is the outcome of concerted and whole heartedefforts put in by the staffs of TERLSIndia MeteorologicalDepartment It is a pleasure to acknowledge with esteemedgratitude the team that worked since 1963 at the TERLSThumba whose efforts have yielded the voluminous uniquedata bank which is available for investigations The authorsare extremely grateful to Dr K Krishnamoorthy DirectorSpace Physics Laboratory VSSC and the reviewers for theirvaluable comments that helped to improve the paper to thefinal form

References

[1] N Oreskes ldquoThe scientific consensus on climatic changerdquoScience vol 306 p 1686 2004

[2] H Ayyar Effect of Pollution on Weather Science ReporterCouncil of Scientific and Industrial Research (CSIR) 1973

[3] K Rupa Kumar A K Sahai K Krishna Kumar et al ldquoHigh-resolution climate change scenarios for India for the 21stcenturyrdquo Current Science vol 90 no 3 pp 334ndash345 2006

[4] P Brohan J J Kennedy I Harris S F B Tett and P DJones ldquoUncertainty estimates in regional and global observedtemperature changes a new data set from 1850rdquo Journal ofGeophysical Research D vol 111 no 12 Article IDD12106 2006

[5] T M Smith and R W Reynolds ldquoA global merged land-air-sea surface temperature reconstruction based on historicalobservations (1880ndash1997)rdquo Journal of Climate vol 18 no 12 pp2021ndash2036 2005

[6] K M Lugina P Y Groisman K Y Vinnikov V V Koknaevaand N A Speranskaya ldquoMonthly surface air temperature timeseries area-averaged over the 30-degree latitudinal belts of theglobe 1881-2004 In Trends a compendium of data on globalchangerdquo Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Centre OakRidge National Laboratory US Department of Energy OakRidge TennUSA 2005 httpcdiacesdornlgovtrendstempluginaluginahtml

[7] J Hansen R RuedyM Sato et al ldquoA closer look atUnited Statesand global surface temperature changerdquo Journal of GeophysicalResearch D vol 106 no 20 pp 23947ndash23963 2001

[8] S Solomon D Quin M Manning et al ldquoContribution ofworking group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the IPCCrdquoTech Rep IPCC-AR4 2007

[9] R C Balling Jr and S W Brazel ldquoRecent changes in PhoenixArizona summertime diurnal precipitation patternsrdquo Theoreti-cal and Applied Climatology vol 38 no 1 pp 50ndash54 1987

[10] R Bornstein and Q Lin ldquoUrban heat islands and summertimeconvective thunderstorms in Atlanta three case studiesrdquoAtmo-spheric Environment vol 34 no 3 pp 507ndash516 2000

[11] P G Dixon and T L Mote ldquoPatterns and cause of Atlandarsquosurban heat island-initiated precipitationrdquo Journal of AppliedMeteorology vol 42 pp 1273ndash1284 2003

[12] F Fujibe ldquoLong-term surface wind changes in the Tokyometropolitan area in the afternoon of sunny days in the warmseasonrdquo Journal of the Meteorological Society of Japan vol 81no 1 pp 141ndash149 2003

[13] T Inoue and F Kimura ldquoUrban effects on low-level cloudsaround the Tokyo metropolitan area on clear summer daysrdquoGeophysical Research Letters vol 31 no 5 Article ID L051032004

[14] JM ShepherdH Pierce andA J Negri ldquoRainfallmodificationby major urban areas observations from spaceborne rain radaron the TRMM satelliterdquo Journal of Applied Meteorology vol 41no 7 pp 689ndash701 2002

[15] C Price SMichaelides S Pashiardis and P Alpert ldquoLong termchanges in diurnal temperature range in Cyprusrdquo AtmosphericResearch vol 51 no 2 pp 85ndash98 1999

[16] H N Singh S D Patil S D Bansod and N Singh ldquoSeasonalvariability in mean sea level pressure extremes over the Indianregionrdquo Atmospheric Research vol 101 no 1-2 pp 102ndash111 2011

[17] J Kingwell J Shimizu K Narita H Kawabata and I ShimizuldquoWeather factors affecting rocket operations a review and casehistoryrdquo American Meteorological Society vol 72 pp 778ndash7931991

[18] R E Turner and C K Hill Terrestrial Environment (Climatic)Guidlines for Use in Aerospace Vehicle Development 1982 Revi-sion Technical Memor 82473 National Aeronautics and SpaceAdministration 1982

[19] ldquoSpace Research in Indiardquo in Proceedings of the 38th COSPARMeeting pp 199ndash204 Bremen Germeny 2010

[20] P V Joseph and A Simon ldquoWeakening trend of the southwestmonsoon current through peninsular India from 1950 to thepresentrdquo Current Science vol 89 no 4 pp 687ndash694 2005

[21] S K Dash J R Kumar and M S Shekhar ldquoOn the decreasingfrequency of monsoon depressions over the Indian regionrdquoCurrent Science vol 86 no 10 pp 1404ndash1411 2004

[22] K N Krishnakumar G S L H V Prasada Rao and C SGopakumar ldquoRainfall trends in twentieth century over KeralaIndiardquo Atmospheric Environment vol 43 no 11 pp 1940ndash19442009

[23] National Council of Educational Research and Training(NCERT) India Text book of physicsmdashpart I for class 11 2006

[24] K E Trenberth ldquoRecent observed interdecadal climate changesin the Northern Hemisphererdquo Bulletin of the American Meteo-rological Society vol 71 no 7 pp 988ndash993 1990

[25] T K Karl H F Diaz and G Kukla ldquoUrbanization its detectionand effect in the United States climate recordrdquo Journal ofClimate vol 1 pp 1099ndash1123 1988

[26] M Rebetez andM Beniston ldquoChanges in sunshine duration arecorrelated with changes in daily temperature range this centuryan analysis of Swiss climatological datardquo Geophysical ResearchLetters vol 25 no 19 pp 3611ndash3613 1998

[27] K V S Namboodiri P K Dileep and K Mammen ldquoWindsteadiness up to 35 km and its variability before the SouthWestMonsoon onset and the withdrawalrdquoMausam vol 63 pp 275ndash282 2012

16 Journal of Climatology

[28] PMinnis A J Kirk P Rabindra and P Dung ldquoContrails cirrustrends and climaterdquo Journal of Climate vol 17 pp 1671ndash16852004

[29] C S Zerefos K Eleftheratos D S Balis P Zanis G Tselioudisand C Meleti ldquoEvidence of impact of aviation on cirrus cloudformationrdquoAtmospheric Chemistry and Physics vol 3 no 5 pp1633ndash1644 2003

[30] K Eleftheratos C S Zerefos C Varotsos and I KapsomenakisldquoInterannual variability of cirrus clouds in the tropics in elnino southern oscillation (ENSO) regions based on interna-tional satellite cloud climatology project (ISCCP) satellite datardquoInternational Journal of Remote Sensing vol 32 no 21 pp 6395ndash6405 2011

[31] K E Trenberth P D Jones and P Ambenje ldquoObservationssurface and climate changerdquo in Climate Change 2007 ThePhysical Science Basis Contribution of working group I to theFourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel onClimate Change S Solomon D Qin and M Manning EdsCambridge University Press Cambridge UK 2007

[32] K R Kumar K K Kumar and G B Pant ldquoDiurnal asymmetryof surface temperature trends over Indiardquo Geophysical ResearchLetters vol 21 no 8 pp 677ndash680 1994

[33] T R Sivaramakrishnan and P S Prakash Rao ldquoSea-breezefeatures over Sriharikota Indiardquo Meteorological Magazine vol118 no 1400 pp 64ndash67 1989

[34] NA SontakkeN Singh andHN Singh ldquoInstrumental periodrainfall series of the Indian region (AD 1813ndash2005) revisedreconstruction update and analysisrdquoHolocene vol 18 no 7 pp1055ndash1066 2008

Submit your manuscripts athttpwwwhindawicom

Forestry ResearchInternational Journal of

Hindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

Environmental and Public Health

Journal of

Hindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

Hindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

EcosystemsJournal of

Hindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

MeteorologyAdvances in

EcologyInternational Journal of

Hindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

Marine BiologyJournal of

Hindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

Hindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom

Applied ampEnvironmentalSoil Science

Volume 2014

Advances in

Hindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

Environmental Chemistry

Atmospheric SciencesInternational Journal of

Hindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

Hindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

Waste ManagementJournal of

Hindawi Publishing Corporation httpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

International Journal of

Geophysics

Hindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

Geological ResearchJournal of

EarthquakesJournal of

Hindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

BiodiversityInternational Journal of

Hindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

ScientificaHindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

OceanographyInternational Journal of

Hindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

The Scientific World JournalHindawi Publishing Corporation httpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

Journal of Computational Environmental SciencesHindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

Hindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

ClimatologyJournal of

Page 16: Research Article Climatic Variation at Thumba Equatorial Rocket Launching Station, India · 2016. 8. 22. · Research Article Climatic Variation at Thumba Equatorial Rocket Launching

16 Journal of Climatology

[28] PMinnis A J Kirk P Rabindra and P Dung ldquoContrails cirrustrends and climaterdquo Journal of Climate vol 17 pp 1671ndash16852004

[29] C S Zerefos K Eleftheratos D S Balis P Zanis G Tselioudisand C Meleti ldquoEvidence of impact of aviation on cirrus cloudformationrdquoAtmospheric Chemistry and Physics vol 3 no 5 pp1633ndash1644 2003

[30] K Eleftheratos C S Zerefos C Varotsos and I KapsomenakisldquoInterannual variability of cirrus clouds in the tropics in elnino southern oscillation (ENSO) regions based on interna-tional satellite cloud climatology project (ISCCP) satellite datardquoInternational Journal of Remote Sensing vol 32 no 21 pp 6395ndash6405 2011

[31] K E Trenberth P D Jones and P Ambenje ldquoObservationssurface and climate changerdquo in Climate Change 2007 ThePhysical Science Basis Contribution of working group I to theFourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel onClimate Change S Solomon D Qin and M Manning EdsCambridge University Press Cambridge UK 2007

[32] K R Kumar K K Kumar and G B Pant ldquoDiurnal asymmetryof surface temperature trends over Indiardquo Geophysical ResearchLetters vol 21 no 8 pp 677ndash680 1994

[33] T R Sivaramakrishnan and P S Prakash Rao ldquoSea-breezefeatures over Sriharikota Indiardquo Meteorological Magazine vol118 no 1400 pp 64ndash67 1989

[34] NA SontakkeN Singh andHN Singh ldquoInstrumental periodrainfall series of the Indian region (AD 1813ndash2005) revisedreconstruction update and analysisrdquoHolocene vol 18 no 7 pp1055ndash1066 2008

Submit your manuscripts athttpwwwhindawicom

Forestry ResearchInternational Journal of

Hindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

Environmental and Public Health

Journal of

Hindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

Hindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

EcosystemsJournal of

Hindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

MeteorologyAdvances in

EcologyInternational Journal of

Hindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

Marine BiologyJournal of

Hindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

Hindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom

Applied ampEnvironmentalSoil Science

Volume 2014

Advances in

Hindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

Environmental Chemistry

Atmospheric SciencesInternational Journal of

Hindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

Hindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

Waste ManagementJournal of

Hindawi Publishing Corporation httpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

International Journal of

Geophysics

Hindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

Geological ResearchJournal of

EarthquakesJournal of

Hindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

BiodiversityInternational Journal of

Hindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

ScientificaHindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

OceanographyInternational Journal of

Hindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

The Scientific World JournalHindawi Publishing Corporation httpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

Journal of Computational Environmental SciencesHindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

Hindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

ClimatologyJournal of

Page 17: Research Article Climatic Variation at Thumba Equatorial Rocket Launching Station, India · 2016. 8. 22. · Research Article Climatic Variation at Thumba Equatorial Rocket Launching

Submit your manuscripts athttpwwwhindawicom

Forestry ResearchInternational Journal of

Hindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

Environmental and Public Health

Journal of

Hindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

Hindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

EcosystemsJournal of

Hindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

MeteorologyAdvances in

EcologyInternational Journal of

Hindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

Marine BiologyJournal of

Hindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

Hindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom

Applied ampEnvironmentalSoil Science

Volume 2014

Advances in

Hindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

Environmental Chemistry

Atmospheric SciencesInternational Journal of

Hindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

Hindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

Waste ManagementJournal of

Hindawi Publishing Corporation httpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

International Journal of

Geophysics

Hindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

Geological ResearchJournal of

EarthquakesJournal of

Hindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

BiodiversityInternational Journal of

Hindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

ScientificaHindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

OceanographyInternational Journal of

Hindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

The Scientific World JournalHindawi Publishing Corporation httpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

Journal of Computational Environmental SciencesHindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

Hindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

ClimatologyJournal of