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Rhode Island Convention Center • Providence, Rhode Island
Resilience Overview
Session: Regional Resiliency Planning in the Federal Sector
Nicolas BakerDOE-FEMP
August 11, 2016
Energy Exchange: Federal Sustainability for the Next Decade
Welcome!
2
Photos: top left, visiting a solar PV array in Antigua designed to enhance resiliency; top right, ASEAN nations addressing climate change resilience at the 4th Annual RE Week in Iloilo City; bottom left, Antigua and Barbuda acknowledge risks of sea level rise in their NDCs for COP21; bottom right, Cities like Frankfurt, Germany are beginning to discus s climate change and resilience. Photo credits: Eliza Hotchkiss, NREL
Energy Exchange: Federal Sustainability for the Next Decade
Overview
Resilience has many definitions, varying within sectors and between sectors:
Federal definitions:– Executive Order 13693 defines resilience as "the ability to anticipate, prepare for, and adapt to changing
conditions and withstand, respond to, and recover rapidly from disruptions".
– DOE's Office of Electricity has a definition of resilience as "the ability of an energy facility to recover quickly from damage to any of its components or to any of the external systems on which it depends".
– Resilience is defined in the Presidential Policy Directive 21 (PPD-21) as the ability to prepare for and adapt to changing conditions and withstand and recover rapidly from disruptions. Resilience includes the ability to withstand and recover from deliberate attacks, accidents, or naturally occurring threats or incidents.
– NIST has a number of definitions for resilience in their Community Resilience Planning Guide resulting from a series of stakeholder groups.
An example of a state’s definition:– The Colorado Resiliency and Recovery Office (CRRO) defines resiliency as “the ability of communities to
rebound and positively adapt to or thrive amidst changing conditions or challenges -- including disasters and changes in climate -- and maintain quality of life, healthy growth, economic vitality, durable systems and conservation of resources for present and future generations.”
An example of definitions cities can use:– The Rockefeller Foundation’s 100 Resilient Cities defines urban resilience as “the capacity of individuals,
communities, institutions, businesses, and systems within a city to survive, adapt, and grow no matter what kinds of chronic stresses and acute shocks they experience.”
3
Energy Exchange: Federal Sustainability for the Next Decade
Overview
Resilience is being used across the globe and is a new ‘buzz’ word.
4
Disaster Recovery
Resilience
Energy Exchange: Federal Sustainability for the Next Decade
Overview
Resilience and Climate Adaptation are not technically the same thing.
5
Resiliency
Climate Adaptation
Progress Report of
the Interagency
Climate Change
Adaptation Task
Force
1st National
Disaster
Recovery
Framework
National
Action Plan for
Managing
Freshwater
Resources
Federal Agencies
Released Climate
Change Adaptation
Plans
Progress
Report:
Highlighting
Federal
Actions on
Climate
Preparednes
s &
Resilience
1st National
Preparedness
report
Exec Order
13514,
Federal
Leadership in
Environmenta
l, Energy &
Economic
Performance
Executive Order
13547
Stewardship of
the Ocean, Our
Coasts, and the
Great Lakes
Presidential
Policy
Directive/
PPD-8:
National
Preparedness
Presidential
Policy Directive
(PPD) on
Critical
Infrastructure
Security and
Resilience
Exec
Order
136531,
Preparing
the U.S.
for the
Impacts of
Climate
Change
National
Policy for
the
Stewardship
of the
Ocean, Our
Coasts, and
the Great
Lakes
Implement-
ation Plan
CCA Plans of
Federal
Departments
& Agencies
CCA
Policy
(EPA)
Exec Order
13690:
Establishing a
Federal Flood
Risk
Management
Standard & a
Process for
Further Soliciting
and Considering
Stakeholder Input
Exec Order
13693--
Planning for
Federal
Sustainability
in the Next
Decade
President’s
Climate
Action Plan
announced
Exec Order
13677-Climate
Resilient
International
Development
1st National Climate
Adaptation SummitWorkshop on U.S. energy sector
vulnerabilities to climate change and
extreme weather
Interagency Climate Change
Adaptation Task Force
Climate Change and Water Workgroup of
the Advisory Committee on Water
Information (ACWI)
Task Force on
State, Local, and
Tribal Leaders
Task Force on
Climate
Prepared-ness
and Resilience
Hurricane Sandy
Rebuilding Task Force
Energy Exchange: Federal Sustainability for the Next Decade
Overview
7
Snapshot of DOE + Resilience:- FEMP
- CEQ Preparedness Pilot for the State of Colorado
- Resiliency tools and analyses- Office of Electricity
- CEQ Preparedness Pilot for the State of Colorado
- Resiliency tools and analyses- EPSA
- Partnership for Energy Sector Climate Resilience
- U.S. Energy Sector Climate Change Vulnerability Report
- Office of Indian Energy- Strategic, resilient energy planning
workshops with tribes- Sustainability Performance Office
- Vulnerability and resilience assessments of DOE’s own facilities
Just to name a few…
Energy Exchange: Federal Sustainability for the Next Decade
Overview
8
NREL is helping others explore the interdependencies between operations, lifestyles, energy, and water in the context of resilience. Illustration: Bill Gillies, NREL (modified).
Energy Exchange: Federal Sustainability for the Next Decade
Our Speakers
Dr. Judsen Bruzgul, ICF Kathleen Judd, PNNL
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Rhode Island Convention Center • Providence, Rhode Island
Regional and Municipal Resiliency Planning
Session: Regional Resilience Planning in the Federal Sector
Judsen Bruzgul, PhDICF InternationalAugust 11, 2016
Energy Exchange: Federal Sustainability for the Next Decade11
Resilience Planning at Many Scales
Energy Exchange: Federal Sustainability for the Next Decade12
Aligning Level of Analysis with Decisions
Source: DOE unpublished
NED elevation Updated Lidar Local GPS surveys
SLR with local tide gauge adjustments
SLOSH storm surge modeling
Advanced storm surge modeling on top of SLR projections
Asset capacity estimates
Regional asset cost estimates
Local asset cost estimates
Regional VOLL estimates from literature Local VOLL study
Land Elevation
Sea Level Rise
Storm Surge
Asset capacity Local asset capacities
Asset Replacement Costs
Asset Damage
Assume 100% damage
Generic damage functionsAsset-specific damage functions
Rapid screening analysis Detailed engineering-level analysis
Indirect cost estimates
Dir
ect
an
d
Ind
ire
ct C
ost
s o
f Im
pac
ts
Exp
osu
reV
uln
era
bili
ty
Energy Exchange: Federal Sustainability for the Next Decade
• Variation in:– Climate hazards
– Asset base and data quality
– Stakeholders (including their interests and responsibilities)
– Decisions
• Interdependencies
• Alignment of local and regional resilience strategies
13
Challenges to Resilience Planning across and within Regions
Figure: Wilbanks, et al. 2012
Energy Exchange: Federal Sustainability for the Next Decade14
Resilience Planning at the Regional Scale
Energy Exchange: Federal Sustainability for the Next Decade
USFWS Vulnerability Assessments
Objective: Provide the Pacific Region with information on the constructed assets most likely to be at risk to climate change impacts • Wildlife Refuges (63)
• Fish Hatcheries (25)
• Other (18)
Energy Exchange: Federal Sustainability for the Next Decade
USFWS Vulnerability Assessments
Objective: Provide the Pacific Region with information on the constructed assets most likely to be at risk to climate change impacts • Wildlife Refuges (63)
• Fish Hatcheries (25)
• Other (18)
Energy Exchange: Federal Sustainability for the Next Decade
Climate Stressor Coverage within the Region
Sea Level Rise Inland Flooding
Landslides Wildfire Extreme Heat
Washington
Oregon
Idaho
Hawaii -- n/a n/a
Midway n/a n/a n/a n/a
Guam n/a n/a n/a n/a
Baker Island n/a n/a n/a n/a
Howland Island n/a n/a n/a n/a
Jarvis Island n/a n/a n/a n/a
American Samoa n/a n/a n/a n/a
= Yes, with primary data source = Yes, with location-specific data sourcen/a = not applicable-- No coverage, though stressor may be applicable
Energy Exchange: Federal Sustainability for the Next Decade
Building Blocks of Vulnerability
Asset location & spatial analysis of exposure
Facility Condition Index (SAMMS)
Historic Status (SAMMS)
Adaptive Capacity
Sensitivity
Exposure
Current Replacement Value (SAMMS)
Asset Material (SAMMS)
Remaining Service Life (RIP)
Pavement Condition Rating (RIP)
Road/Trail Class (RIP)
Vulnerability
Energy Exchange: Federal Sustainability for the Next Decade19
Linking Vulnerability Assessment to Resilience Planning within a Region
Energy Exchange: Federal Sustainability for the Next Decade20
Resilience Planning at the Municipal Scale
Energy Exchange: Federal Sustainability for the Next Decade
• Why Climate Change Matters to Philadelphia– Sea Level Rise, Storm
Flooding, and Extreme Heat– Potential costs of climate
change
• Reducing the Risks– Existing resilience efforts– Early implementation
opportunities– Interdependencies and
opportunities for collaboration—system based strategies
• Capital Planning
Resilience Planning at the Municipal Scale: Philadelphia
Energy Exchange: Federal Sustainability for the Next Decade
Collaboration: Every Department!
Energy Exchange: Federal Sustainability for the Next Decade
Energy Exchange: Federal Sustainability for the Next Decade
Increase stormwater system capacity and functionality
Integrate flood protection strategies at vulnerable water and water pollution control plants and pump stations
Consider installing pumps at gravity-driven Philadelphia Water outfalls that discharge into tidal zones
Support a regional transportation and utility sea level rise vulnerability assessment to determine hot spots or weak links
Determine low-lying substation vulnerabilities and outline options for adaptation and mitigation; coordinate with DOE on vulnerable infrastructure
24
System-Based Strategies
Energy Exchange: Federal Sustainability for the Next Decade
Example Decision Tree: Discrete Project, Existing Asset/Retrofit• Does the facility house
people, or contents that are climate or temperature sensitive?
• What is the lifetime of the facility?
• Is there a plan to install an HVAC system?
• If needed:– Reduce building thermal load– Increase HVAC reliability– Monitor temperatures over
time
Risk Screening: Extreme Heat
Energy Exchange: Federal Sustainability for the Next Decade26
Lessons Learned
• Understand the decision context and stakeholders
• Use cost-effective and tiered vulnerability assessment approaches tailored to decision needs
• Use readily available data (asset, climate, etc.)
• Consider system-level impacts and resilience measures (even when assessing asset-level vulnerability)
• Utilize maps and other tools to reach varied audiences
• Integrate resilience planning into existing processes
Energy Exchange: Federal Sustainability for the Next Decade
Judsen [email protected]
http://www.icfi.com/markets/climate
27
THANK YOU!!
Rhode Island Convention Center • Providence, Rhode Island
Climate Resilience Planning at the Site-Level: A Tale of Two DOE Sites
Session: Regional resilience planning in the federal sector
Kathleen JuddPacific Northwest National Laboratory
August 11, 2016
PNNL-SA-119801
Energy Exchange: Federal Sustainability for the Next Decade29
Site-Level Resilience Planning Framework
Impacts
Vulnerability of Core Systems & Infrastructure
• Sensitivity• Adaptive capacity
Climate Exposures• Past / Current • Future
Adaptation Plans• Reinforce existing measures• Identify new measures• Integrate into operations• Monitor change
Significance for Mission & Operations• Mission attainment• Operating/maintenance costs• System reliability• Safety
Adapted from Moss et al, 2016. http://www.osti.gov/scitech/biblio/1240754
Energy Exchange: Federal Sustainability for the Next Decade
• 1 mi2, developed and agric. land• 4,400 employees• 89 buildings, footprint growing• Lab-intensive facilities
30
A Tale of Two DOE Sites… that share a border
• 586 mi2 of shrub-steppe desert• 5,000 employees• 1002 buildings, footprint shrinking• Extensive infrastructure (power, water…)
PNNL Site Hanford Site
Completing the safe cleanup of the Hanford Site and support the transition to
post-cleanup activities
Advancing the frontiers of science and addressing some of the most challenging problems in energy, the environment and
national security
Energy Exchange: Federal Sustainability for the Next Decade31
Climate Exposures of Concern at Site Level
Energy Exchange: Federal Sustainability for the Next Decade
Pacific Northwest National Laboratory
• Buildings
• Power supply
• Water supply
• IT services
• Worker safety & health
• Transportation
Hanford Site
• Buildings & temporary structures
• Power supply
• Water supply
• Worker safety & health
• Transportation
• Public health
• Ecosystem health
32
Core Systems & Infrastructure Assessed for Potential Vulnerability
Energy Exchange: Federal Sustainability for the Next Decade
Key Internal Stakeholders• Sustainability Program
• Climate & Earth Scientists
• Facilities/Campus Planning
• Facilities Engineering
• Energy Management
• Water & Sewer Management
• Facilities & Grounds Maintenance
• Ecological / Environmental Health
• Worker Safety & Health
• IT Services
• Emergency Services
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Targeted Stakeholder Engagement
Other External
Stakeholders
Key External Stakeholders
Key Internal Stakeholders
Core Planning
Team
May use/benefit from site vulnerability
assessment
Make decisions that influence site
vulnerability
Knowledge of climate impacts and
ownership of sustainability planning
Energy Exchange: Federal Sustainability for the Next Decade
5575
88 8974
97
117
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
# D
ays
>95
F
Days Per Year with Maximum Temperature above 95F in Benton County, WA
Observed Days Max Temp >95F Projected Median Days >95F (RCP4.5)
Projected Median Days >95F (RCP8.5)
34
Example Input to Climate Exposure Assessment:More High Temperature Days
Source: Climate Explorer http://climateexplorer.habitatseven.work/
Energy Exchange: Federal Sustainability for the Next Decade35
Review of Plans, Procedures & Assessments
Example Internal Plans
• Master construction & siting plans
• Emergency management plans
• Facility hazard assessments
• Environmental impact studies
• Building engineering design standards
• Adverse weather procedures
Example External Plans
• WA State Climate Response Strategy
• Columbia River Basin Climate Impact Assessment
• Utility infrastructure replacement redundancy/replacement plans
Energy Exchange: Federal Sustainability for the Next Decade
Defining Disruption Thresholds: Heat Stress Example
Acclimatized Worker(Wet Bulb Globe Temperature )
Work Demands Light Moderate Heavy Very Heavy
100% 85.1°F 81.5°F 78.8°F
75% Work;25% Rest
86.9°F 83.3°F 81.5°F
50% Work;50% Rest
88.7°F 85.1°F 83.3°F 81.5°F
25% Work;75% Rest
90.5°F 87.8°F 86.0°F 85.1°F
Screening Criteria for Heat Stress Exposure
36
Energy Exchange: Federal Sustainability for the Next Decade
Increased degradation rate of building exterior and HVAC
Increased costs for energy use and facility maintenance; Setbacks and evaporative cooling will be less effective
Higher initial cost of building (envelope, HVAC)
Utility could limit power distribution if taxed by higher demand/lower supply
37
PNNL Vulnerability Assessment Example:Impact of High Temperatures on Buildings
Preventative maintenance plans
reviewed annually
Cool roofs are the design default
Maximize use of light-colored materials
for roofs & hard-paved areas
Shade trees placed near buildings
Building orientation optimized
Evaluating a mobile chiller to boost
systems stressed by heat
Vulnerabilities
Assessment New Measures Integrate system degradation checks into
preventative maintenance plans
Add a check for remaining life expectancy in
the 5-year condition assessment
Track equipment life relative to life expectancy
assumptions; adjust in LCC analyses if needed
Use building control system to alternate
schedules to reduce power load if needed
Model temperature increases in new designs
Energy Exchange: Federal Sustainability for the Next Decade
High temperatures increase potential for heat stress on outdoor workers (high)
Worker productivity, work schedules, and costs are affected by more frequent enactment of heat stress management procedures (high)
38
Hanford Vulnerability Assessment Example:Impact of High Temperatures on Worker Health & Safety (& Restrictions)
Outdoor workers are primarily at tank farms,
remediation sites, building demolition and
construction sites
Contractors have Heat Stress Control
Procedures in place, which manage risk for
different work conditions including use of
personal protective equipment (PPE)
Control strategies (e.g. 50/50 work rest regimens,
tropical shifts) protect worker health and safety
but impact schedule; can require more workers
Have 3 year baseline of wet bulb globe temp
(WBGT) data, but not examined for trends
Vulnerabilities
New Measures
Implement centralized data collection of
heat-related activity restrictions (days
exceeding WBGT work limits) and assess
impacts on long-term basis
Explore increased use of robotics and
automation in jobs subject to heat stress
Investigate new types of PPE to prevent
overheating in outdoor workers
Assessment
Energy Exchange: Federal Sustainability for the Next Decade39
Risk Categorization: PNNL
What PNNL systems are most likely to be affected by climate change in ways that pose risks to mission or operations?
Core System for Mission
DeliveryWildfire
High
Temperatures
Intense
Precipitation
& Flooding
DroughtStorms and
WindsIce Storms
Buildings High High High Medium Medium Medium
Power Supply Low High Low Medium Medium Low
Water Supply Low Low Low Low Low Low
IT Services Low Medium Medium Low Medium Low
Worker Safety & Health Medium Low Low Low Low Low
Transportation Low Low Low Low Low Low
Climate Exposure
Energy Exchange: Federal Sustainability for the Next Decade
What Hanford systems are most likely to be affected by climate change in ways that pose risks to mission or operations?
40
Risk Categorization: Hanford
WildfireHigh
Temperatures
Intense
Precipitation
& Flooding
DroughtStorms and
WindsIce Storms
Buildings & Temporary
Structures 1.5 1.3 1.2 1.0 1.4 1.3
Power Supply1.3 1.42 1.1 1.1 1.4 1.5
Water Supply (and
Quality) 1.1 1.6 1.0 1.8 1.1 1.1
Public Health 2.1 1.6 1.4 1.4 1.7 1.6
Worker Safety & Health
(& Restrictions) 2.3 2.4 1.4 1.2 2.2 1.8
Ecosystem Recovery 2.5 1.5 1.3 1.8 1.2 1.9
Climate Exposures
Core Systems for
Mission Delivery
Energy Exchange: Federal Sustainability for the Next Decade
• Stakeholder engagement strategy should be site and topic-specific
• A well-planned data collection strategy improves the process
• Make it participatory but expert-driven - let core system reps prioritize actions that they’ll own
• Integrate resilience planning as an immediate follow-up to vulnerability assessment
• Don’t end the process without establishing real metrics to monitor and a plan for reviewing changes in vulnerability
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Lessons Learned
Energy Exchange: Federal Sustainability for the Next Decade
Climate Resilience Planning Project Leads
Richard Moss, Joint Global Change Research Institute [email protected]
Kathleen Judd, Building Performance Team [email protected]
Hanford Site POC
Scott Davis, Sustainability Coordinator [email protected]
PNNL POC
Mike Moran, Sustainability Program Mgr, [email protected]
More information on PNNL’s work with climate change
42
Questions
Energy Exchange: Federal Sustainability for the Next Decade
Climate exposures & core systems identified
• Review regional climate hazards
• Identify at risk systems and infrastructure
Stakeholder team & roles established
• Planning leads
• Core system owners
• External system owners (targeted)
• Climate/earth science SMEs
Current plans & adaptive capacity assessed
• Review plans to manage core systems
• Interview core system owners
• Document potential vulnerabilities and measures in place
Vulnerabilities assessed
• Core system owners review draft vulnerabilities
• Vet assessment with climate SMEs and broader group
• Establish most significant vulnerabilities to focus planning
Adaptation plans defined
• Define measures to build resilience to priority vulnerabilities
• Plan to integrate measures
• Share with other stakeholders
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Climate Resilience Planning Process
Energy Exchange: Federal Sustainability for the Next Decade
Temperature Change in Pacific Northwest
Figure source: Climate Impacts Group, based on projections used in IPCC 2013 Mote et al. 2013
Projected Change in Average Annual PNW Temperature
(relative to 1950-1999 average)
44
Energy Exchange: Federal Sustainability for the Next Decade
Example Input to Exposure Assessment: Increased Wildfire Risk
496 CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS IN THE UNITED STATES
2 1 : N O R T H WES T
Adaptive Capacity and Implications for VulnerabilityAbility to prepare for these changes varies with land ownership
and management priorities. Adaptation actions that decrease
forest vulnerability exist, but none is appropriate across all of
the Northwest’s diverse climate threats, land-use histories, and management objectives.
86,110 Surface and canopy thinning
can reduce the occurrence and effects of high severity fire in
currently low severity fire systems, like drier eastern Cascades
forests,111
but may be ineffective in historically high-severity-
fire forests, like the western Cascades, Olympics, and some
subalpine forests. It is possible to use thinning to reduce tree mortality from insect outbreaks,
86,112 but not on the scale of
the current outbreaks in much of the West.
Key Message 4: Adapting Agriculture
While the agriculture sector’s technical ability to adapt to changing condit ions can of f set
some adverse impacts of a changing climate , there remain crit ical concerns f or agriculture
w ith respect to costs of adaptat ion, development of more climate resilient technologies
and management, and availability and t iming of w ater.
Agriculture provides the economic and cultural foundation
for Northwest rural populations and contributes substantively to the overall economy. Agricultural commodities and food
production systems contributed 3% and 11% of the region’s
gross domestic product, respectively, in 2009.113
Although the overall consequences of climate change will probably be lower
Figure 21.7.
(Top) Insects and fire have cumulatively
affected large areas of the Northwest and
are projected to be the dominant drivers
of forest change in the near future. Map
shows areas recently burned (1984
to 2008)97,98
or affected by insects or
disease (1997 to 2008).99
(Middle) Map indicates the increases in
area burned that would result from the
regional temperature and precipitation
changes associated with a 2.2°F global
warming100
across areas that share broad
climatic and vegetation characteristics.101
Local impacts will vary greatly within
these broad areas with sensitivity of fuels
to climate.14
(Bottom) Projected changes in the
probability of climatic suitability for
mountain pine beetles for the period
2001 to 2030 (relative to 1961 to 1990),
where brown indicates areas where pine
beetles are projected to increase in the
future and green indicates areas where
pine beetles are expected to decrease
in the future. Changes in probability of
survival are based on climate-dependent
factors important in beetle population
success, including cold tolerance,102
spring precipitation,103
and seasonal heat
accumulation.91,92
Insects and Fire in Northwest Forests
Source: 2014 National Climate Assessment, “Climate Impacts in the United States, Chapter 21 Northwest., p 496; Mote. et alAvailable at: http://nca2014.globalchange.gov/report/regions/northwest
45
Energy Exchange: Federal Sustainability for the Next Decade46
1970’s
1980’s
1990’s
2000’s
Inputs to Exposure Assessment: Hanford Wildfires
Energy Exchange: Federal Sustainability for the Next Decade
Questions and Answers
47
Questions for the Panel?
Energy Exchange: Federal Sustainability for the Next Decade
Questions and Answers
1. What are the drivers behind Federal resiliency planning?
2. Regional resiliency planning should be done in collaboration with multiple stakeholders.
3. Campus resiliency should be done in isolation without communicating broadly across jurisdictions.
4. What is the vulnerability of a site to climate change impacts a function of, exactly?
5. Are two installations or campuses in the same geographic area likely to have the same vulnerabilities to climate change?
Other questions from the audience?
48
Energy Exchange: Federal Sustainability for the Next Decade
Conclusion and Resources
Thank you for joining us today!
Looking for more information? Please visit:Resilience Roadmap
www.nrel.gov/tech_deployment/tech_assistance_resiliency_planning.html
ICF’s Climate Change Work:
http://www.icfi.com/markets/climate
PNNL Atmospheric Sciences & Global Change
http://www.pnnl.gov/atmospheric/
U.S. Climate Resilience Toolkit + Energyhttps://toolkit.climate.gov/topics/energy-supply-and-use
49
Energy Exchange: Federal Sustainability for the Next Decade
Stay in Touch
Email Us:
- Nic Baker (FEMP)
- Judsen Bruzgul (ICF)
- Kathleen Judd (PNNL)
- Eliza Hotchkiss (NREL)
50