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Please refer to important disclosures at the end of this report 1
Senin, 16 Maret 2020
Weekly Strategic
Reversal vs Covid-19
Untuk meredam dampak dari virus corona (Covid-19), pemerintah saat ini tengah memfinalisasi paket
kebijakan stimulus jilid kedua setelah sebelumnya menerbitkan stimulus jilid pertama yang bertujuan
untuk menjaga daya beli masyarakat, diantaranya peluncuran kartu pekerja untuk dua juta penerima
manfaat, pemberian bantuan sosial bagi 50 ribu keluarga penerima manfaat, insentif bagi agen
perjalanan termasuk pemberian diskon pesawat terbang agar sektor pariwisata tetap kuat. Paket
kebijakan stimulus jilid kedua terdiri dari insentif fiskal dan non fiskal. Paket kebijakan stimulus fiskal
diantaranya: a) Penanggungan pembayaran Pajak Penghasilan (PPh) Pasal 21 yang berisikan pajak
atas penghasilan berupa gaji, upah, honorarium, tunjangan, dan pembayaran lain terkait dengan
pekerjaan atau jabatan, jasa, dan kegiatan yang dilakukan orang pribadi dalam negeri. b)
Penanggungan PPh Pasal 22 yang berisikan Pajak Penghasilan Badan atas kegiatan impor barang
konsumsi yang dipungut dari wajib pajak yang melakukan impor atau dari pembeli atas penjualan
barang mewah. c) Penanggungan PPh Pasal 25 selama enam bulan yang berisikan pungutan pajak
kepada Wajib Pajak Orang Pribadi maupun Badan yang memiliki kegiatan usaha dan diwajibkan
membayar angsuran PPh setiap bulan. Sedangkan paket kebijakan stimulus non fiskal tujuannya
untuk mempermudah impor bagi importir bereputasi baik terutama yang termasuk dalam daftar
Authorized Economic Operator (AEO) dan Mitra Utama Ditjen Bea dan Cukai, melalui penghapusan
749 kode HS bagi barang larangan dan pembatasan di sektor tertentu. Selain itu pemerintah juga
tengah mempersiapkan satu stimulus lagi untuk menggerakkan UMKM sebagai langkah antisipasi
untuk tetap mempertahankan daya beli masyarakat. Guna memastikan masyarakat membeli produk
UKM dan memastikan suplai produk UKM ke market tetap terjaga, dimana salah satunya melalui
penyelenggaraan pameran seperti indocraft 2020. Pemerintah juga tengah mendorong upaya untuk
memperkuat kerja sama ASEAN untuk meringankan dampak ekonomi dan sosial bagi masyarakat
ASEAN. Menjalarnya Covid-19 juga membuat Bank Indonesia (BI) menurunkan proyeksi pertumbuhan
ekonomi dunia di tahun 2020 menjadi sekitar 2.7% – 2.8% dan pertumbuhan ekonomi Indonesia
dikisaran 5.1%. Menurut BI, pertumbuhan ekonomi dunia akan lebih rendah karena adanya gangguan
global supply chain dan distribusi di negara maju. Adapun proyeksi revisi laju pertumbuhan ekonomi
Indonesia berasal dari perkiraan pertumbuhan sebesar 4.9% pada kuartal pertama, 0.5% pada kuartal
kedua, 5.1% pada kuartal ketiga, dan 5.2% pada kuartal keempat 2020. Sementara, inflasi
diperkirakan masih dapat terjaga sesuai target awal sebesar 3% +/- 1% dan defisit transaksi berjalan
(CAD) sebesar 2.5% - 3% dari PDB. Pertumbuhan Dana Pihak Ketiga (DPK) perbankan juga
diperkirakan masih dapat mencapai kisaran target 8% sampai 10% di tahun 2020, sedangkan di tahun
2021 dengan adanya stimulus baru dapat meningkat menjadi 9% sampai 12%.
Secara keseluruhan dalam sepekan terakhir IHSG melemah sebesar 10.75% atau 590.97 point,
ditutup di level 4,907.57. Akumulasi minat jual asing dalam sepekan terakhir tercatatkan mewarnai
pergerakan IHSG sebesar Rp.1.3 triliun diantaranya pada saham BBCA, BBRI, BBNI, BMRI, BSIM,
ROTI, ASII, UNVR, LINK, TLKM. Dan dalam dua pekan sampai dengan empat pekan perdagangan
terakhir juga tercatatkan akumulasi minat jual asing masing masing sebesar Rp.3.06 triliun, Rp.4.43
triliun, dan Rp.5.89 triliun. Dalam sepekan terakhir nilai tukar rupiah terhadap dolar AS tercatatkan
melemah dari Rp.14.267 menjadi Rp.14.815. Melemahnya IHSG dalam sepekan terakhir berhasil
menguji target koreksi dikisaran level 5,182.71 – 5,170. Walaupun saat ini valuasi IHSG relatif murah
serta masih terus berada di area jenuh jual (oversold) dengan siklus harian yang terus berada di
bawah -1 standard deviasi, namun terus melebarnya isu Covid-19 membuat IHSG sulit untuk
membentuk pola reversal. Dalam sepekan kedepan pergerakan IHSG diperkirakan masih akan
berfluktuatif dan berpeluang untuk membentuk konsolidasi baru. Beberapa saham di LQ45 yang saat
ini secara histori mendekati PE ratio terendah diantaranya ADRO, AKRA, ANTM, ASII, BBNI, BBTN,
BMRI, BSDE, CTRA, EXCL, GGRM, HMSP, INCO, INDF, INTP, ITMG, JPFA, JSMR, KLBF, LPPF,
MEDC, MNCN, PGAS, PTBA, PTPP, PWON, SCMA, TLKM, UNTR, UNVR, WIKA, dan WSKT. Berita
ekonomi domestik di pekan ini diantaranya neraca perdagangan Februari (ekspor & impor), penjualan
sepeda motor Januari dan Februari, serta kebijakan tingkat bunga BI.
Widhi Indratmo Nugroho Analyst
+62 21 2395 1000 (Ext.2051)
Close
Weekly Return ▼
Yield to Date ▼
PE (X)
Volume (miliar) ▲
Value (Rp. triliun) ▼
BI 7-Day RR
IDR/USD Rp.
COMPOSITE LAST
TOTAL TRANSACTION
-10.75%
ECONOMIC INDICATORS
14,815
4.75%
39.10
31.65
11.38
-22.10%
4,907.57
Sumber: Lotus Sekuritas
JCI vs Foreign Net Buy (Sell) YTD
4,700
5,225
5,750
6,275
6,800
2-Jan-20 6-Feb-20 12-Mar-20
(10,000)
(6,500)
(3,000)
500
4,000
Composite (left) Net Buy YTD in Rp.bn (right)
Sumber: Lotus Sekuritas
SECTOR
Agriculture ▼ -17.45% ▲ 2.75%
Basic Industry ▼ -18.68% ▲ 2.09%
Consumer Goods ▼ -5.76% ▲ 3.91%
Finance ▼ -9.60% ▼ -1.23%
Infrastructure ▼ -12.08% ▲ 4.02%
Manufacture ▼ -10.97% ▲ 3.07%
Mining ▼ -12.96% ▲ 1.27%
Misc. Industry ▼ -13.20% ▲ 2.25%
Property ▼ -14.01% ▼ -1.16%
Trade & Service ▼ -8.74% ▼ -0.80%
WEEKLY RETURN
13-Mar-19 6-Mar-19
Sumber: Lotus Sekuritas
SECTOR
Agriculture ▼ -2.24% ▲ 0.92%
Basic Industry ▼ -5.45% ▼ -5.17%
Consumer Goods ▼ -2.24% ▼ -2.48%
Finance ▼ -42.63% ▼ -43.33%
Infrastructure ▼ -16.78% ▲ 8.20%
Manufacture ▼ -11.74% ▼ -21.31%
Mining ▼ -3.27% ▲ 4.75%
Misc. Industry ▼ -4.72% ▲ 6.14%
Property ▼ -3.76% ▼ -2.26%
Trade & Service ▼ -7.17% ▼ -5.45%
13-Mar-19 6-Mar-19
WEEKLY CAPITAL FLOW
Sumber: Lotus Sekuritas
2
Weekly Strategic Senin, 16 Maret 2020
IDR Volatility
3.2%
5. 1%
1.9%
1.4%
Ave 2015, 2.1%
Ave 2016, 1.9%
Ave 2017, 0.9%
Ave 2018, 1.6%
Ave 2019, 1.4%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Ave 2015 Ave 2016 Ave 2017 Ave 2018 Ave 2019 Note: Penghitungan berdasarkan nilai tengah rupiah
Sumber: Lotus Sekuritas
Yield to Date – Sector
Y ield t o D at e 2 0 2 0
Agr icultur e
-35.64%Basic Industr y
-35.60%Consumer Good
-16.84%Finance
-17.65%Inf r astr uctur e
-23.08%Manuf actur e
-24.92%Mining
-23.78%Misc.Industr y
-28.25%Propert y & Const ; -
1.77%
Trade & Service
-21.05%
-50% -40% -30% -20% -10% 0%
Y ield t o D at e 2 0 19
Agr icultur e
-2.55%Basic Industr y
14.44%Consumer Good
-20.11%Finance
15.22%Inf r astr uctur e
6.88%Manuf actur e
-9.72%Mining
-12.83%Misc.Industr y
-12.23%
Tr ade & Ser vice
-1.79%
Pr oper ty & Const
12.54%
-30% -15% 0% 15% 30%
Sumber: Lotus Sekuritas
Sector Performance of the JCI
Perf o rmance 2 0 2 0
Agr icul tur e
Basic Industr y
Consumer Good
Finance
Inf r astr uctur e
Manuf actur e
Mining
Misc.Industr y
Tr ade & Ser vice
Pr oper ty & Const
-20 -15 -10 -5 0 5 10
Perf ormance 2 0 19
Agr icul tur e
Basic Industr y
Consumer Good
Finance
Inf r astr uctur e
Manuf actur e
Mining
Misc.Industr y
Tr ade & Ser vice
Pr oper ty & Const
-34 -17 0 17 34
Note: Cumulative Return Rebase to JCI = 0
Sumber: Lotus Sekuritas
Volatilitas nilai tukar rupiah terus menurun dan terjaga di bawah 2% (rata rata volatilitas 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, dan 2019: 2.1%, 1.9%, 0.9%, 1.6%, & 1.4%) seiring dengan kebijakan pre-emptive & ahead the curve untuk mendukung kestabilan nilai tukar rupiah dan pertumbuhan ekonomi. Volatilitas IDR dalam sepekan terakhir sebesar 2.32% dan selama bulan Maret sebesar 3.25%, terbesar sepanjang tahun 2020.
Selama 2019, sektor finance menguat (+15.22% ytd) menjadi penggerak positif terbesar IHSG dan berkinerja terbaik. Sedangkan sektor consumer goods menjadi penahan terbesar pergerakan IHSG (-20.11% ytd), dan berkinerja terburuk. Secara keseluruhan sektor finance, basic industry, property & constructions, dan infrastructure menjadi penggerak positif pergerakan IHSG sepanjang 2019. Dalam sepekan terakhir semua sektor melemah. Koreksi terbesar terjadi pada sektor basic industry (-18.68%), dan secara keseluruhan melemah (-35.6% ytd), dan saat ini kinerjanya terburuk kedua. Sedangkan koreksi terkecil terjadi pada sektor consumers (-5.76%), dan secara keseluruhan melemah (-16.84% ytd), dan saat ini berkinerja terbaik.
Sentimen pernyataan the Fed yang pertama kali akan menaikan tingkat bunganya di akhir 2015 membuat volatilitas IDR Oktober 2015 mencapai 5.1%
3
Weekly Strategic Senin, 16 Maret 2020
IHSG – P/E Trade
7.38x
10.36x
13.34x
16.32x
19.29x
-
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
Dec-03 Feb-06 Apr-08 May-10 Jun-12 Aug-14 Sep-16 Oct -18 Dec-20
Sumber: Lotus Sekuritas Siklus Pergerakan IHSG
J CI
Cy c le
Average
+1 STDEV
-1 STDEV
-
875
1,750
2,625
3,500
4,375
5,250
6,125
7,000
Jan-03 Sep-04 May-06 Feb-08 Oct -09 Jun-11 Feb-13 Nov-14 Jul-16 Mar-18 Dec-19
0.43
0.56
0.69
0.82
0.95
1.08
1.21
1.34
1.47
1.60
1.73
Sumber: Lotus Sekuritas
Siklus Pergerakan Harian Beberapa Saham LQ45 & Lainnya
Stock Cycle -1 STDEV Average +1 STDEV Area TP Upside Stock Cycle -1 STDEV Average +1 STDEV Area TP Upside
ACES 0.83 0.99 1.17 1.35 BoW 1,636 16.4% INTP 0.58 0.91 1.12 1.32 BoW 20,193 79.09%
ADRO 0.64 0.83 1.04 1.25 BoW 1,522 83.3% ITMG 0.72 0.91 1.12 1.32 BoW 13,007 63.10%
AKRA 0.48 0.92 1.13 1.34 BoW 4,200 132.7% JPFA 0.74 0.88 1.19 1.51 BoW 2,014 73.6%
ANTM 0.55 0.77 0.98 1.19 BoW 1,006 110.5% JSMR 0.69 0.96 1.14 1.31 BoW 6,503 75.8%
ASII 0.73 0.90 1.12 1.34 BoW 7,329 50.5% KLBF 0.68 1.00 1.20 1.39 BoW 1,563 50.25%
BBCA 0.91 1.00 1.10 1.21 BoW 33,250 17.5% LPPF 0.61 0.02 1.54 3.07 Trading 3,418 61.20%
BBNI 0.67 0.90 1.14 1.38 BoW 8,910 71.4% MNCN 0.73 0.86 1.18 1.50 BoW 1,888 88.75%
BBRI 0.87 0.97 1.08 1.19 BoW 4,812 29.4% PGAS 0.50 0.92 1.08 1.23 BoW 2,160 120.4%
BBTN 0.63 0.82 0.97 1.13 BoW 2,170 62.5% PTBA 0.78 0.83 1.03 1.23 BoW 2,715 37.8%
BMRI 0.86 0.95 1.06 1.16 BoW 8,802 38.61% PTPP 0.46 -4.73 1.82 8.37 Trading 1,956 150.8%
BRPT 0.65 0.75 0.86 0.97 BoW 840 28.24% PWON 0.63 0.92 1.09 1.25 BoW 674 71.1%
BSDE 0.62 0.95 1.03 1.10 BoW 1,591 95.2% SCMA 0.61 0.91 1.25 1.60 BoW 1,771 117.3%
BTPS 0.92 -8.66 3.70 16.05 Trading 4,150 22.06% SMGR 0.62 0.96 1.11 1.26 BoW 15,338 102.5%
CPIN 0.94 0.82 1.28 1.73 Trading 5,773 4.0% SRIL 0.57 -9.21 3.52 16.24 Trading 320 93.9%
CTRA 0.66 0.88 1.07 1.26 BoW 1,294 82.23% TBIG 1.02 1.21 1.24 1.26 BoW 1,284 16.7%
ERAA 0.81 -4.89 1.69 8.26 Trading 2,100 51.6% TKIM 0.59 0.73 1.01 1.29 BoW 12,350 100.8%
EXCL 0.57 0.83 1.10 1.37 BoW 3,830 112.8% TLKM 0.84 1.05 1.15 0.95 BoW 4,683 38.2%
GGRM 0.68 0.89 1.18 1.48 BoW 59,922 44.0% TOWR 1.04 -4.94 1.95 8.84 Trading 991 29.6%
HMSP 0.62 0.95 1.12 1.29 BoW 2,180 44.4% UNTR 0.71 0.84 1.08 1.33 BoW 23,398 50.0%
ICBP 0.98 -4.76 1.72 8.20 Trading 12,321 12.3% UNVR 0.87 0.98 1.10 1.23 BoW 8,788 17.2%
INCO 0.59 0.80 1.02 1.24 BoW 3,723 94.9% WIKA 0.57 0.88 0.95 0.80 BoW 2,600 120.4%
INDF 0.92 1.11 1.37 0.86 BoW 9,361 35.7% WSKT 0.40 0.87 1.12 1.37 BoW 1,649 159.7%
INKP 0.66 0.76 0.99 1.23 BoW 10,400 113.55%
Note: 1. TP (Target Price) Konsensus Bloomberg
2. Cycle: Posisi harga close saham di minggu terakhir
3. Posisi Cycle yang berada dibawah (-1) standard deviation, diperkirakan mempunyai ruang koreksi yang mulai terbatas
Sumber: Lotus Sekuritas
Closing 13 Maret 2020
Saat ini IHSG berada pada PE ratio 11.38x.
Bottom Fishing Buy on Weakness
Trading Area
Sell on Strength
Closing 13 Maret 2020
Krisis Global 2008
Saat ini siklus IHSG di bawah
level -1 standard deviasi.
4
Weekly Strategic Senin, 16 Maret 2020
Stock Pick
ACES
ADRO
AKRA
ASII
BBCA
BBNI
BBRI
BBTN
BSDE
CPIN
CTRA
EXCL
HMSP
ICBP
INCO
INTPJPFA JSMR
KLBF
LPPF
PGAS
PTBA
PTPP
PWON
SCMA
SMGR
TBIG
TKIM
TOWR
UNTR
UNVR
WSKT
BMRI
SRIL
ANTM
GGRM
ERAA
INDF
TLKM
WIKA
BRPT
INKP
ITMG
MNCN
-10%
80%
170%
0.5 1.1 1.7
Sumber: Lotus Sekuritas
Saham Underprice dan mendekati PE ratio terendah
ADRO PE Band AKRA PE Band
3.22x
7x
10.77x
14.54x
18.31x
300
1,100
1,900
2,700
3,500
Dec-11 Dec-12 Dec-13 Dec-14 Dec-15 Dec-16 Dec-17 Dec-18 Dec-19 Dec-20
5.26x
12.78x
20.31x
27.84x35.37x
1,000
4,000
7,000
10,000
Dec-11 Dec-12 Dec-13 Dec-14 Dec-15 Dec-16 Dec-17 Dec-18 Dec-19 Dec-20
Sumber: Lotus Sekuritas Sumber: Lotus Sekuritas
ANTM PE Band ASII PE Band
3.99x
3.99x
13.13x
13.13x
22.28x
22.28x
150.32x296.65x
100
600
1,100
1,600
2,100
Dec-11 Dec-12 Dec-13 Dec-14 Dec-15 Dec-16 Dec-17 Dec-18 Dec-19 Dec-20
7.56x
11.61x
15.66x
19.71x
23.77x
4,000
5,750
7,500
9,250
11,000
Dec-11 Dec-12 Dec-13 Dec-14 Dec-15 Dec-16 Dec-17 Dec-18 Dec-19 Dec-20
Sumber: Lotus Sekuritas Sumber: Lotus Sekuritas
Fairly Price Line
Overprice Area
(Negative Alpha)
Underprice Area
(Positive Alpha)
Beberapa saham yang berada di atas fairly price line (security market line) mencerminkan kondisi underprice. Investor dapat melakukan posisi beli maupun menambah proporsi (overweight) pada saham ini. Sedangkan beberapa saham yang berada di bawah fairly price line mencerminkan kondisi overprice. Investor dapat melakukan posisi jual atau mengurangi proporsi (underweight) pada saham ini. investasi pada aset berisiko seperti saham seharusnya memberi return lebih besar dari investasi pada aset bebas risiko. Investor harus mendapat kompensasi dari investasi di aset berisiko (risk premium). Makin besar kompensasi (risk premium) yang diterima investor dicerminkan oleh gradient (m) garis fairly price line yang bernilai positif menjauhi nol (m>0).
Closing 13 Maret 2020
Sensitivity to Market
Expected Return
Risk Free
Negative Earnings
5
Weekly Strategic Senin, 16 Maret 2020
BBNI PE Band BBTN PE Band
4.68x
7.09x
9.2x
11.46x
13.72x
2,000
4,500
7,000
9,500
12,000
Dec-11 Dec-12 Dec-13 Dec-14 Dec-15 Dec-16 Dec-17 Dec-18 Dec-19 Dec-20
5.68x
8.37x
11.06x
13.75x
500
1,500
2,500
3,500
4,500
Dec-11 Dec-12 Dec-13 Dec-14 Dec-15 Dec-16 Dec-17 Dec-18 Dec-19 Dec-20
Sumber: Lotus Sekuritas Sumber: Lotus Sekuritas
BMRI PE Band BSDE PE Band
8.65x
11.45x
14.24x
17.03x19.83x
2,000
4,500
7,000
9,500
12,000
Dec-11 Dec-12 Dec-13 Dec-14 Dec-15 Dec-16 Dec-17 Dec-18 Dec-19 Nov-20
5.18x
10.42x
15.67x
20.92x
26.16x
500
1,200
1,900
2,600
3,300
Dec-11 Dec-12 Dec-13 Dec-14 Dec-15 Dec-16 Dec-17 Dec-18 Dec-19 Dec-20
Sumber: Lotus Sekuritas Sumber: Lotus Sekuritas
CTRA PE Band EXCL PE Band
9.21x
14.96x
20.71x
26.46x
32.2x
200
700
1,200
1,700
2,200
Dec-11 Dec-12 Dec-13 Dec-14 Dec-15 Dec-16 Dec-17 Dec-18 Dec-19 Dec-20
13.42x
13.42x
38.05x
38.05x
38.05x
62.69x
62.69x
87.32x
111.95x
500
3,000
5,500
8,000
10,500
Dec-11 Dec-12 Dec-13 Dec-14 Dec-15 Dec-16 Dec-17 Dec-18 Dec-19 Dec-20
Sumber: Lotus Sekuritas Sumber: Lotus Sekuritas
GGRM PE Band HMSP PE Band
7.59x
12.84x
18.09x
23.34x28.59x
25,000
51,000
77,000
103,000
129,000
Dec-11 Dec-12 Dec-13 Dec-14 Dec-15 Dec-16 Dec-17 Dec-18 Dec-19 Dec-20
10.15x
20.25x
30.2x
40.22x
50.24x
1,000
2,500
4,000
5,500
7,000
Dec-11 Dec-12 Dec-13 Dec-14 Dec-15 Dec-16 Dec-17 Dec-18 Dec-19 Dec-20
Sumber: Lotus Sekuritas Sumber: Lotus Sekuritas
Negative Earnings
6
Weekly Strategic Senin, 16 Maret 2020
INCO PE Band INDF PE Band
10.13x
10.13x
21.53x
21.53x
32.92x
32.92x
44.31x44.31x55.71x 55.71x
500
2,250
4,000
5,750
7,500
Dec-11 Dec-12 Dec-13 Dec-14 Dec-15 Dec-16 Dec-17 Dec-18 Dec-19 Nov-20
9.92x
15.46x
21x26.54x32.08x
2,000
5,000
8,000
11,000
14,000
Dec-11 Dec-12 Dec-13 Dec-14 Dec-15 Dec-16 Dec-17 Dec-18 Dec-19 Dec-20
Sumber: Lotus Sekuritas Sumber: Lotus Sekuritas
INTP PE Band ITMG PE Band
13.01x
25.92x
38.83x
51.74x
64.64x
2,000
11,000
20,000
29,000
38,000
Dec-11 Dec-12 Dec-13 Dec-14 Dec-15 Dec-16 Dec-17 Dec-18 Dec-19 Dec-20
4.26x
6.33x
8.95x
11.3x
12.72x
2,000
14,000
26,000
38,000
50,000
Dec-11 Dec-12 Dec-13 Dec-14 Dec-15 Dec-16 Dec-17 Dec-18 Dec-19 Dec-20
Sumber: Lotus Sekuritas Sumber: Lotus Sekuritas
JPFA PE Band JSMR PE Band
7.09x
14.34x
21.44x
28.54x
35.64x
100
1,100
2,100
3,100
4,100
Dec-11 Dec-12 Dec-13 Dec-14 Dec-15 Dec-16 Dec-17 Dec-18 Dec-19 Dec-20
11.31x
17.07x
22.84x
28.6x
37.37x
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
Dec-11 Dec-12 Dec-13 Dec-14 Dec-15 Dec-16 Dec-17 Dec-18 Dec-19 Dec-20
Sumber: Lotus Sekuritas Sumber: Lotus Sekuritas
KLBF PE Band LPPF PE Band
14.75x
22.33x
29.2x
43.64x
500
950
1,400
1,850
2,300
Dec-11 Dec-12 Dec-13 Dec-14 Dec-15 Dec-16 Dec-17 Dec-18 Dec-19 Dec-20
2.89x
11.79x
20.69x
29.59x
38.49x
200
7,200
14,200
21,200
28,200
Dec-13 Dec-14 Dec-15 Dec-16 Dec-17 Dec-18 Dec-19 Dec-20
Sumber: Lotus Sekuritas Sumber: Lotus Sekuritas
7
Weekly Strategic Senin, 16 Maret 2020
MEDC PE Band MNCN PE Band
1.39x
1.39x
4.97x
4.97x
8.43x
8.43x
11.89x
11.89x
15.35x15.35x
50
600
1,150
1,700
2,250
Dec-16 Dec-17 Dec-18 Dec-19 Dec-20
4.93x
11.21x
17.5x23.79x30.08x
200
1,200
2,200
3,200
4,200
Dec-11 Dec-12 Dec-13 Dec-14 Dec-15 Dec-16 Dec-17 Dec-18 Dec-19 Dec-20
Sumber: Lotus Sekuritas Sumber: Lotus Sekuritas
PGAS PE Band PTBA PE Band
4.19x
9.04x
13.89x
18.74x
23.59x
500
2,500
4,500
6,500
8,500
Dec-11 Dec-12 Dec-13 Dec-14 Dec-15 Dec-16 Dec-17 Dec-18 Dec-19 Dec-20
4.42x
7.45x
10.48x
13.51x
16.54x
250
1,750
3,250
4,750
6,250
Dec-11 Dec-12 Dec-13 Dec-14 Dec-15 Dec-16 Dec-17 Dec-18 Dec-19 Nov-20
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PTPP PE Band PWON PE Band
2.58x
10.96x
19.35x27.74x36.12x
200
1,500
2,800
4,100
5,400
Dec-11 Dec-12 Dec-13 Dec-14 Dec-15 Dec-16 Dec-17 Dec-18 Dec-19 Dec-20
6.43x
10.72x
15x19.28x
23.56x
100
325
550
775
1,000
Dec-12 Dec-13 Dec-14 Dec-15 Dec-16 Dec-17 Dec-18 Dec-19 Dec-20
Sumber: Lotus Sekuritas Sumber: Lotus Sekuritas
SCMA PE Band TLKM PE Band
6.6x
15.65x
24.71x
33.76x42.81x
500
1,750
3,000
4,250
5,500
Dec-11 Dec-12 Dec-13 Dec-14 Dec-15 Dec-16 Dec-17 Dec-18 Dec-19 Dec-20
11.5x
14.98x
18.45x
21.93x25.4x
1,000
2,200
3,400
4,600
5,800
Dec-11 Dec-12 Dec-13 Dec-14 Dec-15 Dec-16 Dec-17 Dec-18 Dec-19 Dec-20
Sumber: Lotus Sekuritas Sumber: Lotus Sekuritas
8
Weekly Strategic Senin, 16 Maret 2020
UNTR PE Band UNVR PE Band
4.22x
8.27x
12.24x
16.25x20.25x
5,000
17,000
29,000
41,000
53,000
Dec-11 Dec-12 Dec-13 Dec-14 Dec-15 Dec-16 Dec-17 Dec-18 Dec-19 Dec-20
29.92x
37.79x
45.67x
53.54x61.42x
2,600
5,200
7,800
10,400
13,000
Dec-11 Dec-12 Dec-13 Dec-14 Dec-15 Dec-16 Dec-17 Dec-18 Dec-19 Nov-20
Sumber: Lotus Sekuritas Sumber: Lotus Sekuritas
WIKA PE Band WSKT PE Band
4.08x
12.67x
21.25x
29.83x38.41x
100
1,300
2,500
3,700
4,900
Dec-11 Dec-12 Dec-13 Dec-14 Dec-15 Dec-16 Dec-17 Dec-18 Dec-19 Dec-20
2.26x
9.93x
17.61x25.29x
32.97x
100
1,100
2,100
3,100
4,100
Dec-12 Dec-13 Dec-14 Dec-15 Dec-16 Dec-17 Dec-18 Dec-19 Dec-20
Sumber: Lotus Sekuritas Sumber: Lotus Sekuritas
9
Weekly Strategic Senin, 16 Maret 2020
Support Resistance Beta Volatility Bearish Bullish
MINING
Coal, Oil & Gas, Metal & Other Resources
Adaro Energy Tbk ADRO 1,160 1,100 1,225 1.15 6.40% -25.40% Overweight 1,095 1,220
Indo Tambangraya Megah Tbk ITMG 10,425 10,400 11,225 0.92 6.62% -9.15% Overweight 9,975 10,850
Tambang Batu Bara Bukit Asam Tbk PTBA 2,450 2,170 2,540 1.16 5.75% -7.89% Underweight 2,320 2,580
Aneka Tambang Tbk ANTM 610 570 650 1.62 6.44% -27.38% Overweight 565 655
Vale Indonesia INCO 2,570 2,350 2,780 1.55 6.39% -29.40% Overweight 2,390 2,750
BASIC INDUSTRY
Cement, Chemistry, & Others
Indocement Tunggal Perkasa Tbk. INTP 14,950 14,050 15,775 1.56 5.65% -21.42% Overweight 13,875 16,000
Semen Gresik Tbk SMGR 10,800 10,300 11,575 1.43 5.04% -10.00% Overweight 10,075 11,500
Barito Pacific BRPT 970 935 1,065 1.21 6.68% -35.76% Underweight 915 1,020
Sarana Menara Nusantara Tbk TOWR 840 785 860 0.69 4.58% 4.35% Neutral 810 865
Charoen Pokphand Indonesia Tbk CPIN 6,200 5,600 6,675 1.53 6.84% -4.62% Underweight 5,750 6,625
JAPFA JPFA 1,480 1,395 1,545 1.23 6.53% -3.58% Overweight 1,395 1,560
Indah Kiat Pulp and Paper Tbk INKP 6,000 5,350 6,650 2.04 9.11% -22.08% Overweight 5,425 6,550
Pabrik Kertas Tjiwi Kimia Tbk TKIM 7,300 5,750 8,000 2.55 11.38% -28.95% Overweight 6,450 8,125
MISC.INDUSTRY
Otomotif & Manufacturing of Garments
Astra International Tbk ASII 5,675 5,625 6,050 1.33 3.77% -18.05% Overweight 5,325 6,000
Sri Rejeki Isman Tbk SRIL 200 190 214 0.85 3.56% -23.08% Overweight 192 208
CONSUMER GOODS
Foods, Cigarette, Pharmacy & Others
Indofood CBP Sukses Makmur Tbk ICBP 10,950 9,975 11,125 0.77 3.10% -1.79% Underweight 10,550 11,325
Indofood Sukses Makmur Tbk INDF 6,950 6,500 7,300 1.19 4.25% -12.30% Overweight 6,575 7,325
Gudang Garam Tbk. GGRM 50,400 49,500 52,900 0.97 4.22% -4.91% Underweight 48,175 52,625
HM Sampoerna Tbk HMSP 1,715 1,655 1,820 1.06 4.15% -18.33% Neutral 1,630 1,795
Kalbe Farma Tbk KLBF 1,235 1,185 1,340 1.36 4.45% -23.77% Neutral 1,155 1,310
Unilever Indonesia Tbk UNVR 7,450 6,800 7,600 1.00 3.17% -11.31% Underweight 7,100 7,775
PROPERTY & CONSTRUCTION
Bumi Serpong Damai Tbk BSDE 1,015 965 1,150 1.45 5.33% -19.12% Overweight 945 1,080
Ciputra Development Tbk CTRA 885 880 960 1.49 6.49% -14.90% Overweight 825 945
Pakuwon Jati Tbk PWON 530 520 570 1.27 4.99% -7.02% Underweight 498 560
PP (Persero) Tbk PTPP 1,105 1,100 1,220 1.66 6.74% -30.28% Overweight 1,020 1,185
Wijaya Karya (Persero) Tbk WIKA 1,795 1,765 1,910 1.40 5.80% -9.80% Overweight 1,680 1,910
Waskita Karya (Persero) Tbk WSKT 975 950 1,070 1.62 6.00% -34.34% Overweight 900 1,045
INFRASTRUCTURE
Energy, Telecommunication, Transportation & Highway, Non Building Construction
Perusahaan Gas Negara Tbk PGAS 1,345 1,270 1,465 1.48 6.00% -38.02% Overweight 1,255 1,435
XL Axiata Tbk EXCL 2,310 2,300 2,610 0.93 6.48% -26.67% Overweight 2,210 2,400
Tower Bersama Infrastructure TBIG 1,085 1,025 1,135 1.04 6.39% -11.79% Underweight 1,030 1,135
Telekomunikasi Indonesia Tbk TLKM 3,750 3,440 3,880 0.95 3.42% -5.54% Neutral 3,580 3,910
Sarana Menara Nusantara Tbk TOWR 840 785 860 0.69 4.58% 4.35% Neutral 810 865
Jasa Marga Tbk JSMR 4,740 4,560 4,920 1.22 4.57% -8.41% Overweight 4,470 5,000
FINANCE
Bank
Bank Central Asia Tbk BBCA 31,000 30,175 32,700 1.01 2.58% -7.26% Underweight 29,575 32,425
Bank Negara Indonesia BBNI 6,400 6,400 7,050 1.34 4.14% -18.47% Overweight 6,000 6,775
Bank Rakyat Indonesia (Persero) Tbk BBRI 4,010 3,980 4,300 1.27 3.61% -8.86% Underweight 3,780 4,240
Bank Tabungan Negara (Persero) Tbk BBTN 1,660 1,635 1,795 1.63 5.69% -21.70% Underweight 1,535 1,780
Bank Mandiri (Persero) Tbk BMRI 7,250 6,950 7,650 1.25 3.80% -5.54% Underweight 6,825 7,650
Bank Tabungan Pensiunan Nasional Syariah TbkBTPS 4,090 3,560 4,190 0.84 4.46% -3.76% Underweight 3,930 4,240
TRADE & SERVICE
Wholesale. Media, & Investment Company
Ace Hardware Indonesia Tbk ACES 1,460 1,435 1,550 1.05 4.90% -2.34% Underweight 1,390 1,530
AKR Corporindo Tbk AKRA 2,430 2,420 2,680 1.08 5.44% -38.48% Overweight 2,310 2,550
United Tractors Tbk UNTR 17,300 16,550 18,850 0.92 4.54% -19.63% Overweight 16,575 18,000
Erajaya Swasembada Tbk ERAA 1,730 1,565 1,805 1.72 10.05% -3.62% Underweight 1,590 1,865
Matahari Department Store Tbk LPPF 2,850 2,810 3,270 1.00 8.54% -32.30% Underweight 2,720 2,980
Media Nusantara Citra Tbk MNCN 1,290 1,250 1,420 1.02 6.84% -20.86% Overweight 1,230 1,350
Surya Citra Media Tbk SCMA 1,085 1,055 1,200 1.33 5.47% -23.05% Overweight 1,010 1,150.
Emiten Ticker CloseWeekly Indicator
YTD PerformanceWeekly Forecast
Sumber: Lotus Sekuritas
10
Weekly Strategic Senin, 16 Maret 2020
DISCLAMER
This report has been prepared by PT. Lotus Sekuritas on behalf of itself and its affiliated companies and is provided for information purposes only. Under no circumstances is it to be used or considered as an offer to sell, or a solicitation of any offer to buy. This report has been produced independently and the forecasts,
opinions and expectations contained herein are entirely those of PT. Lotus Sekuritas.
While all reasonable care has been taken to ensure that information contained herein is not untrue or misleading at the time of publication, PT. Lotus Sekuritas
makes no representation as to its accuracy or completeness and it should not be relied upon as such. This report is provided solely for the information of clients of
PT. Lotus Sekuritas who are expected to make their own investment decisions without reliance on this report. Neither PT. Lotus Sekuritas nor any officer or
employee of PT. Lotus Sekuritas accept any liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential loss arising from any use of this report or its contents. PT. Lotus
Sekuritas and/or person connected with it may have acted upon or used the information herein contained, or the research or analysis on which it is based, before
publication.
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