Revised 3.7.2011. Meeting. Black Legislative Caucus. 2.28.2011

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    Overview

    2010 Population ChangesRedistricting CriteriaAnalysis of Voting Patterns

    Mathematical ModelsRecommendations

    Texas Redistricting 2011: Karen Callaghan, PhD, Michael Adams, PhD, Texas Southern University

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    2010 Census

    Once it is clear that everyone was counted in the2010 Census . . .

    If districts are unbalanced in population, statesand localities must reconfigure existing districtlines

    Texas Redistricting 2011: Karen Callaghan, PhD, Michael Adams, PhD, Texas Southern University

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    2000-2010 State Population Changes

    Source: 2010 Census PL94- 171; Plans 100

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    Reapportionment Redistricting

    Determines the numberof electoral seatsapportioned to Texas

    The boundaries of elective districts areredrawn to maintainequal population

    Texas Redistricting 2011: Karen Callaghan, PhD, Michael Adams, PhD, Texas Southern University

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    Racial and Ethnic Population Changes

    As an overall percentage:- African American population remains constant

    - Anglo population declines- Hispanic and Asian populations increase

    Texas Redistricting 2011: Karen Callaghan, PhD, Michael Adams, PhD, Texas Southern University

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    Redistricting Criteria

    Relatively equal population districtsPreserve county lines and other political divisions

    Compactness and contiguity Legislators remain in their districtPreserve geographic boundary lines

    Maintain communities of interestNo retrogression

    Texas Redistricting 2011: Karen Callaghan, PhD, Michael Adams, PhD, Texas Southern University

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    Equal Population and the 10% Rule

    Source: 2010 Census PL94- 171; Plans 100

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    Preserve Boundary Lines

    Maps made with GIS mapping software and Census TIGER/Line Shp.files, by Callaghan and Adams,Texas Southern University

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    Compactness and Contiguity

    CompactnessA measure of how tightly packed a district is

    Contiguity A district is contiguous if one can reach any otherpart without crossing a district boundary

    Texas Redistricting 2011: Karen Callaghan, PhD, Michael Adams, PhD, Texas Southern University

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    ContiguousPerfectly Compact

    Not CompactNot Contiguous

    Map made with GIS mapping software and Census TIGER/Line Shp.files, by Callaghan and Adams, Texas Southern University

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    Communities of Interest

    Defined by many characteristics, the most commonbeing:

    Race

    Economic StatusNeighborhood

    Relevant interests must be tangible and must extendbeyond race itself (e.g., political views)

    Texas Redistricting 2011: Karen Callaghan, PhD, Michael Adams , PhD, Texas Southern University

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    No Retrogression

    Does the plan cause a reduction of a minority

    Are minority concentrations fragmented among

    different districts?Are minorities over concentrated in one or moredistricts?Does the plan depart from existing criteria?

    Texas Redistricting 2011: Karen Callaghan, PhD, Michael Adams, PhD, Texas Southern University

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    Retrogression

    Potential for retrogression exists in some districtsdue to diverse populations

    Difficult to draw racially compact districts

    African-Americans elected to districts where African-American populations are typically less than 50% of the total district population

    Texas Redistricting 2011: Karen Callaghan, PhD, Michael Adams, PhD, Texas Southern University

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    Packing

    Putting as many people with the same characteristic into asfew districts as possible.

    *adapted from Redistricting 2010 , Justin Levitt, Brennan Center for Justice

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    Cracking

    Splitting groups of people with the samecharacteristics into more than one district.

    *adapted from Redistricting 2010 , Justin Levitt, Brennan Center for Justice

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    City A

    DemocratsRepublicans

    *adapted from Redistricting 2010 , Justin Levitt, Brennan Center for Justice

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    *adapted from Redistricting 2010 , Justin Levitt, Brennan Center for Justice

    Republican Majority Districts 3Democrat Majority Districts 1

    Gerrymandering - Republicans

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    Maps made with GIS mapping software and Census TIGER/Line Shp.files by Callaghan and Adams, Texas Southern University

    The 1 st Congressional District as Passed by theIllinois Legislature

    LakeMichigan

    1

    1

    Barack House

    1

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    Analysis of Voting Patterns

    Provides minority voters the tools they need toextract from voting officials in the government ameaningful and equitable result

    Election history and voting patterns within ajurisdiction to assess racially polarized voting

    Analysis of voter registration and turnout

    Texas Redistricting 2011: Karen Callaghan, PhD, Michael Adams, PhD, Texas Southern University

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    Assessment of Racially Polarized Voting

    # 1 Bivariate Correlations: % African American VAPand support of African American candidate

    In each electoral contest, compare the proportion of VAP population that is African American and notAfrican American with the proportion of voterssupporting the African American candidate

    Texas Redistricting 2011: Karen Callaghan, PhD, Michael Adams, PhD, Texas Southern University

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    # 2 Racially Homogenous Precinct Analysis

    Compare vote preferences in the most heavily populated African American areas (at or above 90%)with the most heavily populated non-African American

    areas (at or above 90%).

    Texas Redistricting 2011: Karen Callaghan, PhD, Michael Adams, PhD, Texas Southern University

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    #3 Bivariate Ecological Regression Analysis

    Uses all information, not just homogenous precincts

    Texas Redistricting 2011: Karen Callaghan, PhD, Michael Adams , PhD, Texas Southern University

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    Scatterplot Example

    Texas Redistricting 2011: Karen Callaghan, PhD, Michael Adams PhD, Texas Southern University

    y = 0.9671x + 0.0335

    0%

    25%

    50%

    75%

    100%

    0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

    % Vote for African-American Candidates

    % African-American VAP in Precinct

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    #4 Ecological Inference Models

    A more advanced technique now in vogue

    Resolves weaknesses of prior approachesIs used in most voting rights litigation

    Texas Redistricting 2011: Karen Callaghan, PhD, Michael Adams, PhD, Texas Southern University

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    Other Considerations

    Population Demographics: (race, income, education,employment, housing patterns-home ownership/

    rentals)

    Population Projections: What will districtdemographics look like in 2020?

    Projected Voting Patterns

    Texas Redistricting 2011: Karen Callaghan, PhD, Michael Adams, PhD, Texas Southern University

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    Census Undercounts

    Inequities in political representation and revenuesharing

    Not all racial groups undercounted at the same rateAfrican Americans have a larger undercount thanAnglo Americans (as in all prior censuses)African American communities disadvantaged in allgovernment programs where population is used forfund allocation

    Texas Redistricting 2011: Karen Callaghan, PhD, Michael Adams, PhD, Texas Southern University

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    Recommendations

    Districting principles that advance a particular planmust be those that actually guided the construction

    of the plan (not an afterthought)Districting principles must be applied consistently across districtsAssemble a team (attorneys, statisticians, mappingspecialists)For additional guidance, talk to the JusticeDepartment.

    Texas Redistricting 2011: Karen Callaghan, PhD, Michael Adams , PhD, Texas Southern University

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    Bio: Dr. Michael O. Adams

    - Professor of Political Science, Texas Southern University, Director of MPA andeMPA Programs

    - Author of six books covering the fields of American Government, PublicAdministration and Public Policy; and more than twenty five peer reviewedarticles in scholarly journals

    - Published articles on racial minority vote dilution in at-large city councildistricting plans

    - 2009 Barbara Jordan-Mickey Leland International Service Award- 2009 Korean Fellowship Award, Seoul Korea-

    2008 Quiester Craig Teaching Award- 2008 Defense of Democracy Fellowship, Tel Aviv University, Israel-

    China- Ph.D in Political Science, The Atlanta University. Fields: Urban Politics and

    Minority Political Participation and Public AdministrationTexas Redistricting 2011: Karen Callaghan, PhD, Michael Adams , PhD, Texas Southern University

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    Bio: Dr. Karen Callaghan

    Associate Professor, Political Science, Former Director, Barbara Jordan-Mickey Leland School of Public Affairs Survey Center, Texas Southern University Visiting Professor, Vanderbilt University, Postdoctoral Fellow, Rice University Published author in several prestigious journals and pressesProbability models of minority vote dilution in Boston

    Former Director, Quantitative Methods, Public Policy Ph.D. Program,University of Massachusetts, BostonGoldsmith Research Award, Harvard University National Science Foundation Doctoral Dissertation AwardBarbara Jordan-Mickey Leland Scholar Award

    Recently served as Sr. Research Scientist, United States Defense Departmentcontractor in Afghanistan. Survey research and GIS mappingPh.D. in Political Science New York University at Stony Brook. Fields:Statistical Methodology and Political Psychology/Behavior

    Texas Redistricting 2011: Karen Callaghan, PhD, Michael Adams , PhD, Texas Southern University

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    Acknowledgements

    Jay Ayier, J.D., Esquire Attorney

    LaRecca Monique Coxeff Graduate Research Assistant

    Texas Southern University

    Texas Redistricting 2011: Karen Callaghan PhD Michael Adams PhD Texas Southern University