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Seatbelts and the dynamics of policy and practice: Revisiting successful behavioural change Nicola Spurling and Andrew McMeekin Manchester Institute of Innovation Research & Sustainable Practices Research Group Contact: [email protected]

Revisiting successful behavioural change · Seatbelts: A behaviour change success story? •Legislation made the wearing of seatbelts compulsory in 1983. • By Feb 1983 there was

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Page 1: Revisiting successful behavioural change · Seatbelts: A behaviour change success story? •Legislation made the wearing of seatbelts compulsory in 1983. • By Feb 1983 there was

Seatbelts and the dynamics of policy and practice: Revisiting successful behavioural change

Nicola Spurling and Andrew McMeekin Manchester Institute of Innovation Research & Sustainable Practices Research Group

Contact: [email protected]

Page 2: Revisiting successful behavioural change · Seatbelts: A behaviour change success story? •Legislation made the wearing of seatbelts compulsory in 1983. • By Feb 1983 there was

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

1930 1945 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

Great Britain injuries and fatalities in road traffic accidents since 1930 (Dept of Transport stats)

Total ('000s)

Road safety: A policy success story?

Page 3: Revisiting successful behavioural change · Seatbelts: A behaviour change success story? •Legislation made the wearing of seatbelts compulsory in 1983. • By Feb 1983 there was

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20

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Un

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Mal

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Ger

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Rate of road deaths (2010) per million population, European Comparison (Dept of Transport stats)

Page 4: Revisiting successful behavioural change · Seatbelts: A behaviour change success story? •Legislation made the wearing of seatbelts compulsory in 1983. • By Feb 1983 there was

Seatbelts: A behaviour change success story? •Legislation made the wearing of seatbelts compulsory in 1983. • By Feb 1983 there was high compliance of 90% of car drivers (Harvey and Durbin, 1985) - compliance levels have remained high since that time. •Over the past 25 years estimated that wearing a seatbelt has saved at least 60,000 lives and stopped 600,000 severe injuries. “The notable success of this example of behaviour change can be attributed to: clear and unambiguous legislation; clearly evident benefits; high quality media campaigns preceding and accompanying legislation; vociferous support outweighing the presence of vociferous opposition. “(Avineri et al, 2009:5) What explanations for this observable large-scale change in behaviour, in which wearing seatbelts became a normal, taken-for-granted aspect of driving a car?

Page 5: Revisiting successful behavioural change · Seatbelts: A behaviour change success story? •Legislation made the wearing of seatbelts compulsory in 1983. • By Feb 1983 there was

85 81 82 83 84

2500 2400 2300 2200 2100 2000 1900 1800 1700 1600 1500 1400 1300 1200 1100 1000

900 800 700

Cas

ual

ties

YEAR

Car drivers killed and seriously injured from Harvey and Durbin, 1985:206

Actual values

Prediction with intervention effect included

Prediction with intervention effect excluded

Seatbelts: A behaviour change success story?

Page 6: Revisiting successful behavioural change · Seatbelts: A behaviour change success story? •Legislation made the wearing of seatbelts compulsory in 1983. • By Feb 1983 there was

Our research • What happened in the case of seatbelts? – policy

debate, intervention and the practice of driving.

• What are the implications of this intervention for practices other than the ‘target’ practice?

• How do interventions related to seatbelts fit into road safety interventions more broadly?

Parliamentary papers – the journey of seatbelts through parliamentary debate. Literature on road safety research and road safety policy – the other interventions (of varying type and scale) that happened across this period. Road safety statistics – the changes in accidents, fatalities and injuries of different road users across the period.

Page 7: Revisiting successful behavioural change · Seatbelts: A behaviour change success story? •Legislation made the wearing of seatbelts compulsory in 1983. • By Feb 1983 there was

The journey of seatbelts through UK parliament

Pro

ble

m f

ram

ing

In

terv

enti

on

E

vid

ence

Ro

ad R

esea

rch

La

bo

rato

ry

Ro

ad R

esea

rch

La

bo

rato

ry R

epo

rt

An

e cd

ote

Ro

ad R

esea

rch

La

bo

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An

e c

do

te

Seatbelts enter parliamentary debate. Many lives could be saved if seatbelts were used. The main problem is that anchorages are not provided by car manufacturers

1959/60

1966 manufacturers provide anchorage points

1963-65

Seatbelts are not fitted in new cars.

First need a British seatbelt standard

1964-66: Fitting & wearing

1966

Individuals not choosing to wear seatbelts

Seatbelts are poor design

Old vehicles need retrofitting

Individuals not choosing to fit seatbelts

1966 manufacturers provide front seatbelts

1967-68

1967: wearing

‘you know it makes sense’

1967 compulsory in all cars. Included in MOT – leads to retrofit of seatbelts and anchorage points

1965: British standard agreed

Regulation of design*

1970

Belief that only need seatbelts on long/fast journeys

Wearing a seatbelt can be socially awkward

1971: ‘clunk click every trip’

1971-74

How can government persuade individuals to wear seatbelts?

R&D contract for fully automatic seatbelt

Compulsory wearing: legislative process begins

Technology Legislation

Inte

rnat

ion

al e

.g.–

fro

m

Scan

din

avia

& U

S

Inte

rnat

ion

al e

.g.–

fro

m

New

Zea

lan

d &

Au

stra

lia

Page 8: Revisiting successful behavioural change · Seatbelts: A behaviour change success story? •Legislation made the wearing of seatbelts compulsory in 1983. • By Feb 1983 there was

Ph

iloso

ph

y o

f la

w a

nd

d

emo

crac

y

An

e cd

ote

N

HS

Stat

isti

cs

i) It will be difficult to administer such a law

ii) The Law will be too complicated (e.g. What about van drivers)

iii) Debate over effectiveness of seatbelts

iv) Democratic principle

1974

Costs of seatbelts should be included in vehicle pricing to assist consumers.

1974 Road Traffic Bill – 1st Reading in Lords. Clause added to give Secretary of State the right to introduce the compulsory wearing of seatbelts

1976: Law amended to include seatbelts in pricing

Nov 1974: Bill resumed. Incomplete debate stands adjourned

2nd reading clause removed

1977-78

Fuel crisis pushes seatbelts off the agenda.

April 1977: Bill read in Lords. Does not pass

Individual choices not to wear seatbelts cost the taxpayer. E.g. In 1975 injuries caused from not wearing seatbelts cost the NHS £15 million

Spec

ula

tio

n

1976

March 1976: Debate resumed. Free vote to the house. 100 in favour of Bill

Jan 1979: Road Traffic (Seat Belts) Bill read in Parliament for the first time

Contd...

Page 9: Revisiting successful behavioural change · Seatbelts: A behaviour change success story? •Legislation made the wearing of seatbelts compulsory in 1983. • By Feb 1983 there was

Evaluating interventions: dynamic practices

(1966) Unsuccessful? (1983) Successful?

Page 10: Revisiting successful behavioural change · Seatbelts: A behaviour change success story? •Legislation made the wearing of seatbelts compulsory in 1983. • By Feb 1983 there was

Evaluating interventions: dynamic practices

(1966) Unsuccessful?

Page 11: Revisiting successful behavioural change · Seatbelts: A behaviour change success story? •Legislation made the wearing of seatbelts compulsory in 1983. • By Feb 1983 there was

Evaluating interventions: dynamic practices (1983) Successful?

Page 12: Revisiting successful behavioural change · Seatbelts: A behaviour change success story? •Legislation made the wearing of seatbelts compulsory in 1983. • By Feb 1983 there was

Evaluating interventions: dynamic practices

“Taking those indirectly affected by the law, our model gave an increase of 27 per cent for rear seat passengers, 8 per cent for pedestrians and 13 per cent for cyclists.” (Harvey and Durbin, 1985)

“...the law had no effect on total fatalities, but was associated with a redistribution of danger from car occupants to pedestrians and cyclists” (Adams, 2006:145)

making seatbelts compulsory reshaped driving practice which overall became faster, associated less with awareness and care, more with speed.

Models based on the assumption that all other aspects of driving practice would remain the same

Models based on the assumption that relationship of driving to other practices would remain the same

Page 13: Revisiting successful behavioural change · Seatbelts: A behaviour change success story? •Legislation made the wearing of seatbelts compulsory in 1983. • By Feb 1983 there was

Evaluating interventions: multiple interventions in practice

“... The decrease in road deaths between 10 at night and 4 in the morning was 23 per cent, while in all other hours it was only 3 per cent – in line with the prevailing trend” (Adams, 2006:143)

Page 14: Revisiting successful behavioural change · Seatbelts: A behaviour change success story? •Legislation made the wearing of seatbelts compulsory in 1983. • By Feb 1983 there was

Multiple forms of intervention in practice

A very brief history of government road research/intervention:

Road materials -skidding -dust -road quality

1935-1945 1945-1965

Road Design -- road layout -The width of streets -- curvature and gradient of road -- quality of surface -- flow/speed of traffic -- pedestrian crossings

1965-1975

Vehicle Design -- Anti-locking brakes -- fitting safety harnesses i.e. seatbelts -- recognised importance of vehicles for injuries. Road Design --effects of street-lighting --removal of skidding accident black spots -- building bypasses -Improving junctions -Effects of speed limits

Individual -- effect of drink driving

To be contd...

Page 15: Revisiting successful behavioural change · Seatbelts: A behaviour change success story? •Legislation made the wearing of seatbelts compulsory in 1983. • By Feb 1983 there was

Interventions in practice

Framing road safety and the seatbelts case as interventions in practice highlights:

• Intervention isn’t ‘one-off’ but has a before and an after within the dynamics of practice

• Intervention doesn’t only affect the ‘target practice’ but also the other practices with which the target practice interconnects

• That the behaviour change success of seatbelts legislation was a small part of a much bigger picture that included road engineering, road planning and design, vehicle design, as well as individuals’ performances