Salmon Decision Process

Salmon Decision Process

• Procedure for adaptively managing Chinook Salmon in the Delta

• Specific criteria for physical and biological monitoring developed from 1995-2002

• Basis for decision on DCC gate closures and use of (b)(2) and EWA for export reductions

• Primarily focused on juvenile Chinook Salmon

50% Increase in tributary

average daily flow

Tributary Juvenile Migration Status

Fry/Pre-Smolt< 70 mm length range

Smolt / yearling70 mm - 150 mm length range

No Action Observed at mouth

of tributaries

FIRST ALERTFIRST ALERT

20% Increase SacramentoRiver Flow at Wilkins Slough

SECOND ALERTSECOND ALERT

LeaveDCC Open

ConsiderClosing

DCC

Close DCCfor 4 Days

within 24 hrs

Close DCCuntil < 5.0 fish

Knights LandingCatch Index of “older

juveniles” (KLCI)and/or SacramentoCatch Index (SCI) **

CI < 3

3 < CI < 5

5 < CI <10

CI > 10

THIRD ALERTTHIRD ALERTProceed to Chart 2Proceed to Chart 2

2001/2002 Chinook decision process October through March (Chart 1 of 2).

Water Quality CriteriaJersey Point < 1.8Bethel Island < 1.0Holland Tract < 0.8

Tide CycleWeather ConditionsExport Magnitude

Fail WQcriteria

Meet WQcriteria

ElevateRecommendations

to WOMT forDecision

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4 5

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2001/2002 Chinook decision process October through March (Chart 2 of 2).

Daily SWP/CVPloss density “olderjuveniles” > 8/taf

or CNHF CWT LFRcumulative loss .5%

Reduce exports to6,000 cfs at SWP or3,000 cfs at CVP for

3 days, depending onsource of greatest loss

FOURTH ALERTFOURTH ALERT

Compare winter-runChinook loss, delta

smelt 14-day mean andmonthly salvage, andsteelhead cumulativesalvage to take levels

of concern

Daily SWP/CVPloss density “older

juveniles” > 15

FIFTH ALERTFIFTH ALERT

Reduce exports to4,000 cfs at SWP or2,000 cfs at CVP for

3 days, depending onsource of greatest loss

SufficientEWA and/

or b(2) assets

Daily SWP/CVPloss density “olderjuveniles” < 8/taf

and CNFH CWT LFRcumulative loss < .5%

THIRD ALERT

KLCI “older juveniles” or SCI> 10 Oct - Feb and > 15 Mar

InsufficientEWA and/

or b(2) assets

Monitor Chinook lossat SWP and CVP Delta Exports

ElevateRecommendations

to WOMT forDecision

Initiate 10-day export/survival test of 4,000 cfs total export if Sac. Flow increase of 20% at Wilkins Sl. is

expected to continue for at least 7 days

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Annotation - 2003 Salmon Decision Process

1 - Mill, Deer and Butte creeks are the most important populations of spring Chinook today (DFG. June 1998. Report to the Fish and Game Commission: A Status Review of the Spring-runChinook Salmon in the Sacramento River Drainage. Candidate Species Status Report 98-01). DFG operates rotary screw traps near the mouths of these three tributaries to monitor theemigration of spring run yearlings, and later, spring run and fall run fry.

2 - Juvenile Chinook in the spring Chinook tributaries less than 70 mm between October and April arefall run or spring run fry or pre-smolts (Figure 1) and not the focus of the Salmon DecisionProcess actions.

3 - Juvenile Chinook in the spring run tributaries greater than 70 mm between October and April arespring run yearlings (Figure 1) and the focus of the Salmon Decision Process actions.

4 - Yearling spring run are difficult to trap, due to their low numbers and strong swimming ability,therefore a significant increase in flow is a surrogate for trapping yearling spring run. The firstsignificant flow in October is associated with the beginning of emigration (Figures 2 - 4).

5 - Yearling spring run at the mouths of the spring run tributaries are in the Sacramento River and aresusceptible to Delta mortality factors associated with the Delta Cross Channel (DCC) andSWP/CVP export operations.

6 - The “First Alert” is the early warning criteria for closing the DCC..

7 - Wilkins Slough is the flow gage near Knights Landing, and about 35 miles upstream of the Delta. A significant flow increase at Wilkins Slough is associated with juvenile emigration past KnightsLanding (Figure 5).

8 - The “Second Alert” is the warning criteria for closing the DCC. The First and Second alerts alertsare important warning criteria because information and data dissemination, and agencycoordination for an action can take several days.

9 - Catches Indexes at Knights Landing and/or Sacramento are the criteria upon which the first actionis based; closing the Delta Cross Channel Gates (DCC) (Figures 6 and 7). The raw catchesare standardized to one day of effort, but do not include catch efficiency. Depending on thecatch magnitude, there are several options for closing the DCC, ranging from not closing them,and continuing to monitor catch at KL and/or Sac, to closing them until the catch indexdecreases to 5 fish per day.

10 - Closing the DCC for fish protection can adversely impact Delta salinity from November throughJanuary. Without Sacramento River freshwater flowing through the DCC and into the centralDelta to the bay, saline ocean water can intrude into the central and southern Delta. Waterproject operators developed an objective set of water salinity criteria that indicate when theDelta becomes susceptible to salinity intrusion if the DCC is closed and exports are maintained.

11 - Fish and water salinity needs are frequently mutually exclusive, with respect to the DCC position,from November through January. Under the situation, if the Data Assessment Team (DAT)and Operations and Fish Forum (OFF) can’t resolve the contradiction, they elevate it to theWater Operations Management Team (WOMT).

12 - The KL and/or Sac catch index of > 10 from November through February, and > 15 from Marchthrough April indicates the “Third Alert”. A significant number of juvenile Chinook are in theDelta and potentially exposed to the south Delta exports in the following weeks.

13 - FWS conducts a juvenile Chinook Delta survival experiment each year in December and January. The goal is to try to determine the relationship between survival, exports and flow. Theobjective is 10 consecutive days of consistent environmental parameters, exports and inflow. The criteria to achieve the objective is a KL and/or Sac catch index > 10, and projectedSacramento River flow increased by 20%.

14 - Juvenile Chinook loss at the exports is the only export reduction criteria. The two loss criteria arebased on non-clipped Chinook loss density (Figure 8), and Coleman late fall hatchery Chinookcumulative loss. Non-clipped Chinook loss density and hatchery Chinook cumulative loss arethe “Fourth and Fifth alerts”.

15 - Fish Management Agencies (MA) determine whether there is sufficient EWA assets to reduceexports. If there are insufficient EWA assets, the MAs elevate the issue to WOMT forresolution.

16 - If EWA assets are sufficient, the MAs reduce exports for a number of days and resume monitoringloss.

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Figure 1

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NUM BER O F O LDER JUVEN ILE CH INO O K RECO VERED IN T HEDEER CREEK RO T A RY SCREW T RA P, 1995/ 96 - 2001/ 02

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Figure 2

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NUM BER O F O LDER JUVEN ILE CH INO O K RECO VERED IN T HEM ILL CREEK RO T ARY SCREW T RAP, 1995/ 96 - 2001/ 02

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Figure 3

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NUM BER O F O LDER JUVEN ILE CH INO O K RECO VERED IN T HEBUT T E CREEK RO T A RY SCREW T RA P A T O K IE DA M , 1995/ 96 - 2001/ 02

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1 16A ug 96 1 16Sep 96 1 16O ct 96 1 16N ov 96 1 16D ec 96 1 16Jan 97 1 15Feb 97 1 16M ar 97 1 16A pr 97 1 16M ay 97 1 16Jun 97 1 16Ju l 97 31

1 16A ug- 95 1 16A ep 1 16O ct- 95 1 16N ov- 95 1 16D ec- 95 1 16Jan- 96 1 15Feb- 961 16M ar- 96 1 16A pr- 96 1 16M ay- 96 1 16Jun- 96 1 16Ju l- 96 31


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1 16A ug 99

1 16Sep 99

1 16O ct 99

1 16N ov 99

1 16D ec 99

1 16Jan 00

1 15Feb 00

1 16M ar 00

1 16A pr 00

1 16M ay 00

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1 16Ju l 00

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1 16A pr 01

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1 16Ju l 01

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1 16O ct 01

1 16N ov 01

1 16D ec 01

1 16Jan 02

1 15Feb 02

1 16M ar 02

1 16A pr 02

1 16M ay 02

1 16Jun 02

1 16Ju l 02

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Figure 4

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NUM BER O F O LDER JUVEN ILE CH INO O K RECO VERED IN T HEKN IGHT S LA NDING RO T A RY SCREW T RAP, 1995/ 96 - 2001/ 02

1995/ 1996

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1998/ 1999

1 16A ug 95

1 16Sep 95

1 16O ct 95

1 16N ov 95

1 16D ec 95

1 16Jan 96

1 15Feb 96

1 16M ar 96

1 16A pr 96

1 16M ay 96

1 16Ju 96

1 16Ju l 96

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1 16A ug 96

1 16Sep 96

1 16O ct 96

1 16N ov 96

1 16D ec 96

1 16Jan 97

1 15Feb 97

1 16M ar 97

1 16A pr 97

1 16M ay 97

1 16Jun 97

1 16Ju l 97

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1 16A ug 97

1 16Sep 97

1 16O ct 97

1 16N ov 97

1 16D ec 97

1 16Jan 98

1 15Feb 98

1 16M ar 98

1 16A pr 98

1 16M ay 98

1 16Jun 98

1 16Ju l 98

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1 16A ug 98

1 16Sep 98

1 16O cy 98

1 16N ov 98

1 16D ec 98

1 16Jan 99

1 15Feb 99

1 16M ar 99

1 16A pr 99

1 16M ay 99

1 16Jun 99

1 16Ju l 99

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1 16A ug 00

1 16Sep 00

1 16O ct 00

1 16N ov 00

1 16D ec 00

1 16Jan 01

1 15Feb 01

1 16M ar 01

1 16A pr 01

1 16M ay 01

1 16Jun 01

1 16Ju l 01

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1 16A ug 01

1 16Sep 01

1 16O ct 01

1 16N ov 01

1 16D ec 01

1 16Jan 01

1 15Feb 01

1 16M ar 01

1 16A pr 01

1 16M ay 01

1 16Jun 01

1 16Ju l 01

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1 16A ug 99

1 16Sep 99

1 16O ct 99

1 16N ov 99

1 16D ec 99

1 16Jan 00

1 15Feb 00

1 16M ar 00

1 16A pr 00

1 16M ay 00

1 16Jun 00

1 16Ju l 00

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Figure 5

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NUM BER OF OLDER JUVEN ILE CH INOOK RECOVERED IN THEKN IGHT S LANDING ROTARY SCREW TRAP, 1995/ 96 - 2001/ 02

1995/ 1996

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1 16A ug 95

1 16Sep 95

1 16O ct 95

1 16Nov 95

1 16D ec 95

1 16Jan 96

1 15Feb 96

1 16M ar 96

1 16A pr 96

1 16M ay 96

1 16Ju 96

1 16Ju l 96

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1 16A ug 96

1 16Sep 96

1 16O ct 96

1 16Nov 96

1 16D ec 96

1 16Jan 97

1 15Feb 97

1 16M ar 97

1 16A pr 97

1 16M ay 97

1 16Jun 97

1 16Ju l 97

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1 16A ug 97

1 16Sep 97

1 16O ct 97

1 16Nov 97

1 16D ec 97

1 16Jan 98

1 15Feb 98

1 16M ar 98

1 16A pr 98

1 16M ay 98

1 16Jun 98

1 16Ju l 98

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1 16A ug 98

1 16Sep 98

1 16O cy 98

1 16Nov 98

1 16D ec 98

1 16Jan 99

1 15Feb 99

1 16M ar 99

1 16A pr 99

1 16M ay 99

1 16Jun 99

1 16Ju l 99

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1 16A ug 00

1 16Sep 00

1 16O ct 00

1 16Nov 00

1 16D ec 00

1 16Jan 01

1 15Feb 01

1 16M ar 01

1 16A pr 01

1 16M ay 01

1 16Jun 01

1 16Ju l 01

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1 16A ug 01

1 16Sep 01

1 16O ct 01

1 16Nov 01

1 16D ec 01

1 16Jan 01

1 15Feb 01

1 16M ar 01

1 16A pr 01

1 16M ay 01

1 16Jun 01

1 16Ju l 01

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1 16A ug 99

1 16Sep 99

1 16O ct 99

1 16Nov 99

1 16D ec 99

1 16Jan 00

1 15Feb 00

1 16M ar 00

1 16A pr 00

1 16M ay 00

1 16Jun 00

1 16Ju l 00

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Figure 6

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NUM BER OF O LDER JUVEN ILE CHINOOK RECOVEREDIN T HE SACRAM ENT O TRAWL, 1995/ 96 - 2001/ 02

1995/ 1996

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1 16A ug 95

1 16Sep 95

1 16O ct 95

1 16Nov 95

1 16D ec 95

1 16Jan 96

1 15Feb 96

1 16M ar 96

1 16A pr 96

1 16M ay 96

1 16Ju 96

1 16Ju l 96

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1 16A ug 96

1 16Sep 96

1 16O ct 96

1 16Nov 96

1 16D ec 96

1 16Jan 97

1 15Feb 97

1 16M ar 97

1 16A pr 97

1 16M ay 97

1 16Jun 97

1 16Ju l 97

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1 16A ug 97

1 16Sep 97

1 16O ct 97

1 16Nov 97

1 16D ec 97

1 16Jan 98

1 15Feb 98

1 16M ar 98

1 16A pr 98

1 16M ay 98

1 16Jun 98

1 16Ju l 98

31

1 16A ug 98

1 16Sep 98

1 16O cy 98

1 16Nov 98

1 16D ec 98

1 16Jan 99

1 15Feb 99

1 16M ar 99

1 16A pr 99

1 16M ay 99

1 16Jun 99

1 16Ju l 99

31

1 16A ug 00

1 16Sep 00

1 16O ct 00

1 16Nov 00

1 16D ec 00

1 16Jan 01

1 15Feb 01

1 16M ar 01

1 16A pr 01

1 16M ay 01

1 16Jun 01

1 16Ju l 01

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1 16A ug 01

1 16Sep 01

1 16O ct 01

1 16Nov 01

1 16D ec 01

1 16Jan 01

1 15Feb 01

1 16M ar 01

1 16A pr 01

1 16M ay 01

1 16Jun 01

1 16Ju l 01

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1 16A ug 99

1 16Sep 99

1 16O ct 99

1 16Nov 99

1 16D ec 99

1 16Jan 00

1 15Feb 00

1 16M ar 00

1 16A pr 00

1 16M ay 00

1 16Jun 00

1 16Ju l 00

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Figure 7

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LO SS PER EXPO RT S (taf) O F O LDER JUVEN ILE CH INO O K SALVAGEDAT THE SWP & CVP EXPO RT FAC ILIT IES, 1995/ 96 - 2001/ 02

1995/ 1996

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Figure 8

Documents

Salmon Decision Process