Schooling, Literacy and the Labour Market: Towards a 'Literacy Shortage'?

Canadian Public Policy

Schooling, Literacy and the Labour Market: Towards a 'Literacy Shortage'?Author(s): Daniel BoothbySource: Canadian Public Policy / Analyse de Politiques, Vol. 19, No. 1 (Mar., 1993), pp. 29-35Published by: University of Toronto Press on behalf of Canadian Public PolicyStable URL: http://www.jstor.org/stable/3551788 .

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Schooling, Literacy and the Labour Market: Towards a 'Literacy Shortage'? DANIEL BOOTHBY*

Ce texte essaie de d6terminer si le systkme d'6ducation canadien r6ussit 9 produire une offre adequate de personnes ayant les habilet6s d'6criture et de lecture requises par une 6conomie moderne. Cette 6tude est r6alisbe g partir de l'Enqubte sur les habilet6s d'6criture et de lecture utilisbes dans les activites quotidiennes. Deux aspects de la question sont consideres: premierement, nous examinons si les habilet6s d'6criture et de lecture de cohortes successives se sont ambliorbes; deuxibmement, nous cherchons g savoir si les besoins futurs du march6 dans ce domaine ont de bonnes chances d'etre combl6s. Nous concluons que les habilet6s d'6criture et de lecture se sont ambliorbes dans le temps, et que la demande du march6 du travail canadien pour ces habilet6s sera combl~e au tournant du sidcle.

This essay attempts to determine whether the Canadian educational system is failing to produce an adequate supply of persons with the basic literacy skills required by a modern economy, using unpublished data from the Survey of Literacy Skills Used in Daily Activities. Two aspects of the issue are examined: first, the extent to which the literacy skills of succeeding age cohorts have improved; second, whether future labour market needs for literacy skills are likely to be met. We conclude that Canadians' literacy skills have improved over time, and that the Canadian labour market's demand for literacy skills will be met by the available level of these skills through the turn of the century.

ssues involving literacy and the adequacy of education in Canada have received

considerable attention of late, in part because of concern with Canada's international economic competitiveness, in part because the results of the Southam Liter- acy Survey (Calamai, 1987) and the Statis- tics Canada (1991) Survey of Literacy Skills Used in Daily Activities (Literacy Survey) seem to indicate very high levels of illiteracy among Canadians. The complexity of the relations among economic performance, schooling and literacy is reflected in the very broad range of specific questions raised in connection with these issues.

This essay attempts to determine

whether the Canadian educational system is failing to produce an adequate supply of persons with the basic literacy skills required by a modern economy, using unpublished data from the Literacy Survey and from Employment and Immigration Canada occupational demand forecasts. Two aspects of this issue are examined: first, the extent to which the literacy skills of succeeding age cohorts have improved (or failed to improve); second, whether given future labour market needs for literacy skills, these needs are likely to be met by the skills of future labour market en- trants.

Although these two issues lie at the heart

Canadian Public Policy - Analyse de Politiques, XIX:1:29-35 1993 Printed in Canada/Imprim~ au Canada



Table 1 Age, education and reading ability

Highest level of education completed Age group 16-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-69

Less than high school (% age group) 29 21 24 41 54 % at reading level:

Reading level 1-2 12 20 19 30 50 Reading level 3 34 33 36 36 30 Reading level 4-5 54 47 44 34 20

High School diploma (% age group) 47 41 38 29 25 % at reading level:

Reading level 1-3 27 23 25 48 52 Reading level 4 56 60 59 41 44 Reading level 5 17 17 16 11 -

Post-secondary diploma (% age group) 18 22 21 16 11 % at reading level:

Reading level 1-3 11 9 15 30 33 Reading level 4 54 60 55 53 56 Reading level 5 36 30 29 16 -

University degree (% age group) 5 16 16 14 10 % at reading level:

Reading level 1-3 .. Reading level 4 64 50 51 52 55

Reading level 5 33 45 43 37 36

All levels (% age group) 100 100 100 100 100 % at reading level:

Reading level 1-2 6 7 9 21 35 Reading level 3 23 17 20 28 29 Reading level 4 52 54 52 39 30 Reading level 5 18 23 19 12 6

of any consideration of whether Canada faces a 'literacy crisis,' limiting discussion to them excludes consideration of other im- portant issues. For instance, no international comparisons are undertaken here, for the simple reason that there is no data source for any other country measuring the literacy skills of a representative sample of its population (as the Literacy Survey does for Canada). No analysis of the adequacy of skills at levels beyond that of basic literacy is carried out. Finally, the consequences of illiteracy considered here are the consequences for the economy as a whole, and not the consequences for individuals with low levels of literacy skills. Thus, while this essay does not pretend to resolve, or even to address, the entire range of issues involving literacy, schooling and the labour market, we do claim that it provides useful

evidence on whether or not the Canadian labour market faces a lack of workers with adequate literacy skills.

Schooling and Literacy

The first topic discussed is the relation between schooling and literacy, specifically whether the Canadian educational system is doing a better or worse job than in the past in teaching basic literacy skills. Since the publication of the Southam and Statis- tics Canada Literacy Surveys, there have been some alarming statements made in this connection. For instance, the Econom- ic Council of Canada describes the functional illiteracy rate of Canadian born persons 16-24 years old as 'appallingly high,' warns that 'our school system will produce well over one million new

30 Daniel Boothby



functional illiterates over the next ten years,' and claims that the language skills of the 16-24 year old age group have dete- riorated relative to earlier age cohorts (1992:8).

We will argue that the situation is not as black as painted. Table 1 shows the distribution by reading ability level, education level and age group of persons in the Liter- acy Survey sample to whom the literacy assessment was administered. Roughly speaking, persons at levels 1 and 2 cannot read or can only recognize words in texts, persons at level 3 read and interpret simple texts, but not relatively complex texts, persons at level 4 meet most everyday reading demands, but may have difficulty in making judgments based on texts (for ex- ample, the purpose of a newspaper opinion report), and persons at level 5 can perform all of these tasks.

The most striking feature of Table 1 is the contrast in the literacy skills of pre- and post-World War II age cohorts. Slightly more than a third of the oldest age group has literacy skills at levels 4-5. This rises to about half of the group 45-54 years old, while at least 70 per cent of each of the three age cohorts born since 1945 has literacy skills at levels 4-5.

It is hard to see what can explain this increase in reading skills, other than the ris- ing levels of schooling over time, as shown in Table 1. Furthermore, within each age cohort, higher levels of schooling are as- sociated with higher levels of literacy skills. Finally, we note that the postwar age cohorts have higher levels of reading ability at every schooling level than the prewar age cohorts, suggesting perhaps an increasing quality of education.

A specific problem is posed by the results for the 16-24 year old age group. Overall, this cohort has a smaller proportion of persons at reading levels 4 and 5 than the two immediately preceding cohorts (70%, as op- posed to 77% for persons 25-34 years old in April 1989, and 71% for persons 35-44 years old at this date). The Economic Council of Canada simply interprets this as a 'deteri-

oration of performance among young people' (1992:8).

This conclusion is supported in part by reference to the deterioration of language skill results in Nelson Canada's 'Canadian Test of Basic Skills,' administered in grade 8. It is difficult to know whether this decline occurred because the test was administered to a broader group, or because there is an actual decline in skills in the grade 8 population. (Note also that Quebec is excluded from the test group.) Moreover, the decline referred to began in 1966 and was followed by a slight improvement from 1973 to 1980. The period 1966 to 1973 coincides with the grade 8 years of part of the 35-44 age cohort in the Literacy Survey, the cohort with the highest levels of reading achievement in the Literacy Survey sample.

An alternative explanation of the lower reading scores of 16-24 year olds is simply that many of them have not completed their schooling, unlike most of the 25-34 year old cohort. A definitive answer to these questions could be furnished if the Literacy Sur- vey were repeated in 1994, otherwise they are likely to remain a subject of con- troversy.

In any event, we would claim that the principal conclusions to be drawn from Table 1 are that the reading abilities of Canadians born since World War II are dramatically higher than those of earlier cohorts, that this difference is primarily due to increased schooling (although other factors, such as deterioration of reading skills over time may play a role), and that reading abilities at each level of completed schooling are higher for younger than for older age cohorts. Whether or not there has been some deterioration of skills in the 16- 24 year old age cohort can only be settled in the future, as this group's schooling is not yet completed.

Literacy and Job Requirements

One interesting feature of the Literacy Sur- vey is that it collected data on the use of literacy skills on the job. Several points

Schooling, Literacy and the Labour Market 31



60

50

40

30 -. .

2 0 .................. ??--?-~\Yi" -- .............. 20

10 I_

GED 2 GED 3 GED 4 GED 5 GED 6

~ Level 1-2 • Level 3 f Level 4 Level 5

SOURCE: Computation from Literacy Survey

Figure 1 Reading ability level and general educational development required by job

emerge clearly from this data. First, the use of literacy skills at work is widespread in the Canadian economy. Limiting ourselves to only the highest level of literacy skills about which information was sought, 63 per cent of non-student respondents read reports, articles or books for their job, and 48 per cent wrote reports, articles or books for their job.

Second, the use of literacy skills at work is closely related to the level of reading ability. Of respondents reading at level 5, 80 per cent read and 65 per cent write reports, articles or books at work, compared to 52 per cent and 37 per cent respectively of respondents at reading level 3. Use of literacy skills at work is also closely related to the educational requirements of the job, as measured by General Educational Develop- ment (GED). Among non-student respondents with jobs at GED level 6, 95 per cent read, and 93 per cent write reports, articles or books at work, compared to 71 per cent and 46 per cent respectively at GED level 4, and 28 per cent and 17 per cent at GED level 2.2

GED thus seems to be a reasonable

measure of the literacy requirements of jobs. In what follows predicted occupational distributions will be translated into predicted literacy requirements of jobs using the GED levels attached to occupations. First, however, we consider more closely the relation between reading ability and the literacy requirements of jobs.

Figure 1 shows the reading ability distribution of Literacy Survey non-student respondents by the GED level of their job. A relatively high level of reading ability is clearly a prerequisite for jobs at high levels of GED. It is not true, however, that all persons with jobs at low levels of GED have low levels of reading ability. Over 40 per cent of those with jobs at GED level 2, and over 50 per cent of those with jobs at GED level 3, read at reading ability levels 4 and 5. These 3.5 million individuals make up 25 per cent of non-students with jobs at reading level 5, and 45 per cent of those at reading level 4. In contrast, fewer than 200,000 non-students at reading levels 1 and 2 held jobs at GED levels 4 and 5.

On the basis of Figure 1 alone, there are grounds for scepticism about a shortage of

32 Daniel Boothby



50

?40

30

20 1

00..\\ "

GED 2 GED 3 GED 4 GED 5-6

~~ Jobs: 1986 E Jobs: 2000 New Jobs: 1986-2000

SOURCE: COPS variable coefficients model

Figure 2 General educational development (GED) requirements of jobs, 1986-2000

literacy skills in the Canadian economy. If literacy skills are in short supply, it is difficult to understand why three and a half million Canadians with relatively high levels of reading ability should be working in jobs which make little, if any, call on these skills. (Incidentally, this group is about evenly divided between women and men.)

Figure 2 compares predictions of requirements of GED for jobs in Canada in 2000 to GED requirements of jobs in 1986. The information in figure 2 is derived from the detailed occupational forecasts from the variable coefficients model of the Canadian Occupational Projections System (COPS), Employment and Immigration Canada. These projections show a slight drop in the proportions of jobs at GED levels 2, 3 and 4, and a corresponding rise in the proportion at GED levels 5-6.

These tendencies are naturally am- plified in the new jobs distribution. (New jobs in a category is predicted jobs in 2000 less actual jobs in 1986.) While almost 50

per cent of new job creation is predicted to occur at GED levels 5-6, more than 40 per cent is predicted at GED levels 2 and 3. These predictions thus tend to confirm the idea of a 'disappearing middle' of the labour market, advanced in the Economic Council of Canada's 1990 statement on Good Jobs, Bad Jobs.

On the basis of these projections, it is difficult to believe that Canada will find itself with a shortage of workers with adequate literacy skills for available jobs. Enrolment rates in post-secondary education are likely to continue to rise from now until 2000, leading to a more educated workforce with correspondingly higher literacy skills. Re- turning to Table 1, moreover, 73 per cent of persons 16-24 years old in 1989 already read at levels 4 or 5, the levels which pre- dominate at GED levels 5-6.

Some Conclusions

This essay sought to examine two aspects




of the relations between literacy, schooling and the labour market: first, whether the Canadian educational system is producing students with higher levels of literacy skills than in the past; second, whether the Canadian labour market is threatened with a shortage of workers with the levels of literacy skills required by a modern economy.

Aside from their interest in their own right, both of these issues have been the subject of alarming commentary from pres- tigous sources in the recent past. The Economic Council of Canada (1992) claims that the literacy skills acquired in the schools have declined, threatening Cana- da's competitive position. The Conference Board (DesLauriers, 1990:2) reports that '70 per cent of Canadian establishments employing over 50 people were aware of significant literary deficits affecting from 1 to more than 30 per cent of their workforce' and that these were 'now a significant im- pediment to attaining strategic objectives'.

The conclusions reached here are some- what more reassuring. Large increases in the level of schooling among age groups born since World War II have led to corresponding gains in literacy skills. These gains have continued over the postwar period (except, perhaps in the most recent years), and have been accompanied by gains in literacy skills for successive age cohorts at each highest completed level of schooling. It is argued here that the ap- parent deterioration of results in the age group 16-24 years old in 1989 may be due to the fact that many individuals in this group have not yet completed their schooling.

Given that there are three and a half million Canadians at relatively high levels of reading skills with jobs that make little demand on these skills, it seems unlikely that the Canadian economy will face a 'literacy shortage' in the near future. This conclusion is reinforced by occupational projections showing that over 40 per cent of new job creation from 1986 to 2000 will be in occupations with low literacy skill requirements. With a probable continued rise

in the proportion of youth completing some form of post-secondary education, there should be an ample supply of new literates to the labour market.

These conclusions are not grounds for complacency - no country with a secondary school dropout rate over 30 per cent can af- ford to be complacent about its school system. No international comparisons are carried out here, because there is no data source for another country which furnishes literacy data for a representative sample of the population. The conclusions drawn here relate only to how Canada is doing relative to how it has done in the past and to how it is likely to do relative to its labour market requirements in the near future. Canada is not compared here to its international competitors.

While the Canadian educational system faces enormous challenges it would be foolish to minimize, it would be equally foolish not to recognize its considerable accom- plishments over the postwar period. At any rate, it seems to this observer to be producing a level of literacy skills which meets the overall needs of the Canadian labour market.

Notes

* This research was carried out under contract to Strategic Policy and Planning, Employment and Immigration Canada for the Canadian Employ- ment Research Forum. The author gratefully ac- knowledges the assistance of the Special Surveys Division, Labour and Household Surveys, Statis- tics Canada, and in particular of its director, T.S. Murray. The sole responsibility for the use made of the data cited here, the interpretation of the data, and any error of fact or fancy is the author's.

1 Interpretation of differences between age cohorts in reading skills at a given level of schooling is difficult, because reading skills may be lost or reinforced after finishing school. Alternative ex- planations of the fact that reading skills are lower for older age cohorts at every schooling level in- clude deterioration of reading skills over time, greater gains in reading skills following schooling for younger age cohorts, and better test-taking skills among younger age cohorts.

2 GED is assigned to seven digit occupations in the Canadian Classification and Dictionary of Oc-

34 Daniel Boothby



cupations, based on the opinions of a panel of ex- perts on the reasoning, mathematical and language development required in the occupation. GED is assigned to jobs here based on the 4-digit Standard Occupational Classification, using an aggregation developed by the Canadian Occu- pational Projections System, Employment and Immigration Canada. A rough equivalence of GED levels and years of schooling is: GED 6, 17 or more years, GED 5, 13-16 years, GED 4, 11-12 years, GED 3, 9-10 years, GED 2, 6-8 years. For further details, and for the detailed tables under- lying these two paragraphs, see Boothby (1992).

References

Boothby, Daniel (1992) 'Literacy, Schooling and the Labour Market: Results from the Survey of Literacy Skills Used in Daily Activities,' unpublished.

Calamai, Peter (1987) Broken Words: A Special Southam Survey (Toronto: Southam News- paper Group).

DesLauriers, Robert (1990) The Impact of Em- ployee Illiteracy on Canadian Business (Ot- tawa: Conference Board of Canada).

Economic Council of Canada (1990) Good Jobs, Bad Jobs: Employment in the Service Economy (Ottawa, Ministry of Supply and Services Canada). - (1992) A Lot to Learn: Education and Training in Canada (Ottawa: Ministry of Supply and Services Canada).

Statistics Canada (1991) The Survey of Literacy Skills Used in Daily Activities: Microdata User's Guide (Ottawa: Special Surveys Group, Labour and Household Surveys, Statistics Canada).

The Centre for Research on Economic and Social Policy announces a discussion paper series:

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Schooling, Literacy and the Labour Market: Towards a 'Literacy Shortage'?