Scientific Advice for the Scientific Advice for the Management of Management of

Transboundary Marine Transboundary Marine EutrophicationEutrophication

Characteristics of the Characteristics of the BalticBaltic

Enclosed and shallowEnclosed and shallow– Long residence (memory) of pollutantsLong residence (memory) of pollutants– All countries interdependentAll countries interdependent– Large advective (water flow) inputs to Large advective (water flow) inputs to

coast from offshore and between basinscoast from offshore and between basins Non point nutrient sources dominateNon point nutrient sources dominate Large regional variations inLarge regional variations in

– Sources (natural and anthropogenic)Sources (natural and anthropogenic)– Socio-economics Socio-economics

Management objectiveManagement objective

““a healthy Baltic Sea environment a healthy Baltic Sea environment with diverse biological with diverse biological components functioning in components functioning in balance, resulting in a good balance, resulting in a good ecological status and supporting a ecological status and supporting a wide range of sustainable human wide range of sustainable human economic and social activities” economic and social activities” (HELCOM’s strategic vision)(HELCOM’s strategic vision)

The role of scientific The role of scientific decision supportdecision support

There is a mismatch between the kind of There is a mismatch between the kind of ecosystem people want and what is actually ecosystem people want and what is actually attainableattainable

What is attainable is also dependent on costs and What is attainable is also dependent on costs and how long we are willing to wait how long we are willing to wait

There is a large risk to implement inefficient and There is a large risk to implement inefficient and expensive measures – science can help us avoid expensive measures – science can help us avoid thisthis

Science can describe these choices and help us set Science can describe these choices and help us set realistic environmental goals what are actually realistic environmental goals what are actually attainableattainable

The ultimate goal for linking The ultimate goal for linking science & managementscience & management

Environmental state

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The cost for The cost for improvements in improvements in the Baltic will the Baltic will follow the upper follow the upper curve without a curve without a good good understanding of understanding of cost effective cost effective measures. measures.

With good With good science, we will science, we will provide options provide options to reduce cost to to reduce cost to the lower curve. the lower curve.

Nutrient inputs

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Key Variables 1Key Variables 1

Calculate the cost for nutrient reductionsat the source from different measures

Nutrient inputs

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Key Variables 2Key Variables 2

Calculate the retention of nutrients fromdifferent sources in drainage basins

Nutrient inputs

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Key Variable 1+2Key Variable 1+2

Nutrient inputs

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Calculate to costs of nutrient reductions to the coast

Nutrient inputsC

ost

, E

uro

B

Nutrient concentration

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inp

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Key Variables 3Key Variables 3

Calculate the nutrient concentrationsin different sea areas in relation toinputs

Relate nutrient concentrations tospecific environmental conditions

Environmental state

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nB

Nutrient concentration

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inp

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Key Variables 3Key Variables 3

A

Environmental state

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co

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en

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Nutrient concentration

Nu

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Nutrient inputs

Co

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, E

UR

O

Environmental state

Co

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, E

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O

Linking Key VariablesLinking Key Variables

Basic Modules Basic Modules (Changing..)(Changing..)

LOADLOADNUTRIENT NUTRIENT BUDGETSBUDGETS

COST CALCULATIONSCOST CALCULATIONShttp://WWW.MARE.SU.SE

MODELMODELRESULTSRESULTS

FISHFISHWEBWEB

NUTRIENT MODELNUTRIENT MODEL

EMEPEMEPLOADLOAD