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February 2016
SCOTTISH PUBLIC OPINION MONITOR
VOTING INTENTIONS
3
Scottish Parliament Voting Intention
(Constituency)
Base: All giving a voting intention = 888 . All likely to vote = 708 Data collected among 1,000 Scottish adults 16+,
1st – 7th February 2016
HOW WOULD YOU USE YOUR FIRST VOTE IF THERE WERE ELECTIONS TO THE SCOTTISH PARLIAMENT TOMORROW?
Source: Ipsos MORI Scottish Public Opinion Monitor
52%
22%
15%
7% 4%
All giving a voting intention All likely to vote
SNP lead +30 SNP lead +33
SNP
LABOUR
CONSERVATIVE
LIB DEM
OTHER
53%
20%
16%
6% 4%
4
Holyrood- Constituency vote trend IF THERE WERE ELECTIONS TO THE SCOTTISH PARLIAMENT TOMORROW, HOW WOULD YOU USE YOUR FIRST VOTE?
Base: All certain/likely to vote. Data collected among c1,000 Scottish adults. Source: Ipsos MORI Scottish Public Opinion Monitor
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Labour SNP Conservative Liberal Democrats Other
5
Scottish Parliament Voting Intention (Party List)
HOW WOULD YOU USE YOUR SECOND VOTE IF THERE WERE ELECTIONS TO THE SCOTTISH PARLIAMENT TOMORROW?
Source: Ipsos MORI Scottish Public Opinion Monitor
49%
21%
14%
8% 6% 2%
All giving a voting intention All likely to vote
SNP lead +28 SNP lead +30
SNP
LABOUR
CONSERVATIVE
LIB DEM
GREEN
OTHER
49%
19%
15%
8%
6% 2%
Base: All giving a voting intention = 887 . All likely to vote = 708 Data collected among 1,000 Scottish adults 16+,
1st – 7th February 2016
SATISFACTION WITH PARTY LEADERS
7
DAVID CAMERON NICOLA STURGEON JOHN SWINNEY
-2% swing from November
0% swing from November
-10% swing from November
-38 Net +39 Net +9% Net SATISFIED 28% SATISFIED 66% SATISFIED 44%
DISSATISFIED 66% DISSATISFIED 27% DISSATISFIED 36%
Satisfaction with Prime Minister, First Minister
and Deputy First Minister
Base: 1,000 Scottish adults 16+, 1st – 7th February 2016
Swing is calculated as the average of change in % “satisfied” and % “dissatisfied”
HOW SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED ARE YOU WITH THE WAY … IS RUNNING THE COUNTRY / DOING HIS/ HER JOB
AS PRIME MINISTER / FIRST MINISTER/ DEPUTY FIRST MINISTER
0
-100
+100
Source: Ipsos MORI Scottish Public Opinion Monitor
8
KEZIA DUGDALE RUTH DAVIDSON WILLIE RENNIE PATRICK HARVIE JEREMY CORBYN
+1% swing from November
-6% swing from November
-1% swing from November
-5%
swing from November
+5 Net +8 Net -4 Net +19 Net -13 Net SATISFIED 39% SATISFIED 41% SATISFIED 27% SATISFIED 39% SATISFIED 34%
DISSATISFIED 34% DISSATISFIED 33% DISSATISFIED 31% DISSATISFIED 20% DISSATISFIED 47%
Satisfaction with Scottish party leaders
HOW SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED ARE YOU WITH THE WAY … IS DOING HIS/HER JOB AS LEADER OF THE XXXX PARTY?
0
-100
+100
Source: Ipsos MORI Scottish Public Opinion Monitor
Base: 1,000 Scottish adults 16+, 1st – 7th February 2016
Swing is calculated as the average of change in % “satisfied” and % “dissatisfied”
9
Net Satisfaction with party leaders trend ARE YOU SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY … IS DOING HIS/HER JOB AS FIRST MINISTER//PRIME MINISTER/LEADER OF SCOTTISH LABOUR/THE SCOTTISH LIBERAL DEMOCRATS/THE SCOTTISH CONSERVATIVES?
Base: All . Data collected among c1,000 Scottish adults.
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
Aug-11 Dec-11 Jan-12 Jun-12 Oct-12 Feb-13 May-13 Sep-13 Dec-13 Feb-14 May-14 Aug-14 Oct-14 Jan-15 Apr-15 Aug-15 Nov-15 Feb-16
Ruth Davidson Willie Rennie Patrick HarvieDavid Cameron Nicola Sturgeon Kezia DugdaleJohn Swinney Jeremy Corbyn
Source: Ipsos MORI Scottish Public Opinion Monitor
THE EUROPEAN UNION
11
-3%
+4%
-1%
EU Referendum:
Should the UK remain a member of the EU? SHOULD THE UNITED KINGDOM REMAIN A MEMBER OF THE EUROPEAN UNION OR LEAVE THE EUROPEAN UNION?
Base: 1,000 Scottish adults 16+, 1st – 7th February 2016. Source: Ipsos MORI Scottish Public Opinion Monitor. Changes compared to November 2015
Source: Ipsos MORI
SCOTLAND
REMAIN LEAVE DON’T KNOW
26%
62%
12%
GB
36%
9%
-3%
+4%
-1%
55%
Base: 513 British adults 18+, 23rd-29th January 2016. Source Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
Changes compared to December 2015
12
Have voters decided yet? AS YOU MAY KNOW, THERE WILL BE A REFERENDUM ON BRITAIN’S MEMBERSHIP OF THE EUROPEAN UNION BY 2017.
Source: Ipsos MORI
February 2016
DEFINITELY DECIDED
MAY CHANGE MIND
DON’T KNOW
62%
36%
2%
HAVE YOU DEFINITELY DECIDED TO VOTE FOR BRITAIN TO REMAIN/LEAVE THE EUROPEAN UNION OR IS THERE A CHANCE YOU
MAY CHANGE YOUR MIND BEFORE YOU VOTE?
Base: All giving an opinion (878), 1st – 7th February 2016
13
Have voters decided yet? AS YOU MAY KNOW, THERE WILL BE A REFERENDUM ON BRITAIN’S MEMBERSHIP OF THE EUROPEAN UNION BY 2017.
Source: Ipsos MORI
DEFINITELY DECIDED
MAY CHANGE MIND
DON’T KNOW
65%
33%
2%
HAVE YOU DEFINITELY DECIDED TO VOTE FOR BRITAIN TO REMAIN/LEAVE THE EUROPEAN UNION OR IS THERE A CHANCE YOU
MAY CHANGE YOUR MIND BEFORE YOU VOTE?
54%
44%
1%
Remain a member of EU Leave EU
Base: All saying that they would vote to remain in the EU (618) Base: All saying that they would vote to leave the EU (260)
Base: All who would vote to remain in the EU (618); All who would vote to leave the EU (260), 1st – 7th February 2016
SCOTTISH INDEPENDENCE
15
#IndyRef2
Source: Ipsos MORI Scottish Public Opinion Monitor
And if there was a referendum on
Scottish Independence held
tomorrow, how would you vote in
response to the question “Should
Scotland be an independent
country?”
I WOULD VOTE ‘YES’ I WOULD VOTE ‘NO’ UNDECIDED
49%
5%
Imagine the UK as a whole votes to
leave the EU in the referendum when
voters in Scotland vote to remain in
the EU. If this led to another Scottish
Independence referendum being
held, how would you vote in
response to the question ‘Should
Scotland be an independent
country’?
39%
7%
54%
Base: 1,000Scottish adults 16+, 1st – 7th February 2016
45%
16
Source: Ipsos MORI Scottish Public Opinion Monitor
30%
10% 54%
7%
Scottish Rate of Income Tax
INCOME TAX
RAISED BY 1P IN
POUND
INCOME TAX
LOWERED BY 1P IN
POUND
INCOME TAX KEPT
THE SAME AS IT IS
DON’T KNOW
AS YOU MAY KNOW, NEW INCOME TAX RATES SET BY THE SCOTTISH PARLIAMENT COME INTO EFFECT IN SCOTLAND FROM APRIL THIS YEAR. A DECISION TO INCREASE OR LOWER THE RATE OF INCOME TAX WILL APPLY TO TAXPAYERS WHO PAY THE BASIC RATE OF INCOME TAX AND THOSE WHO PAY HIGHER RATES.
WHICH OF THESE COMES CLOSEST TO YOUR VIEW?
Base: All from 2nd – 7th February 2016 (933)
NUCLEAR WEAPONS
18
Nuclear weapons
COULD YOU PLEASE TELL ME WHETHER YOU SUPPORT OR OPPOSE THE FOLLOWING POLICY?
Source: Ipsos MORI Scottish Public Opinion Monitor
Get rid of all nuclear weapons in
Britain.
SUPPORT OPPOSE DON’T KNOW
22%
51%
9%
Get rid of all nuclear weapons in
Britain, even if other countries keep
theirs.
46%
10%
44%
Base: 495 Scottish adults 16+, 1st – 7th February 2016. Base: 505 Scottish adults 16+, 1st – 7th February 2016
40%
19
Technical details
This presents the topline results from Scotland.
Results are based on a survey of 1,000 respondents (adults aged 16+) conducted by telephone
Fieldwork dates: 1st – 7th February 2016.
Data are weighted by: age, sex and working status using census data; tenure using SHS data; and
public-private sector employment using Scottish Government Quarterly Public Sector Employment
series data
Where results do not sum to 100%, this may be due to computer rounding, multiple responses, or the
exclusion of “don’t know” categories
Results are based on all respondents (1,000) unless otherwise stated.
Contact us: Mark Diffley: [email protected];
0131 220 5699
