Scottish Public Opinion Monitor - October 2012

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Scottish Public Opinion Monitor October 2012

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Independence

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Version 1 | Public (DELETE CLASSIFICATION) Version 1 | Internal Use Only Version 1 | Confidential Version 1 | Strictly Confidential © Ipsos MORI

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Q. Do you agree that Scotland should be an independent country?

28%

52%

19% Yes

No

Undecided

30%

58%

12% Yes

No

Undecided

All Certain to vote

Base: All = 1,003; all certain to vote = 66% (688). Data collected among 1,003 Scottish adults 18+, 8-15 October 2012

„Yes‟ change since June = -4% „Yes‟ change since June = -5%

Support for independence has fallen to 30% among those

certain to vote, down five points since June

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Base: All certain to vote = 66% (688). Data collected among 1,003 Scottish adults 18+, 8-15 October 2012

54% 61% 63%

49% 55% 62%

17%

79% 92% 86%

37% 24% 27% 30% 35%

27%

67%

11% 4% 7% Yes

No

Men Women 18-24 25-34 35-54 55+ SNP Labour Cons. Lib

Dem

Support for independence is highest among men, those aged 35-

54 and SNP supporters

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Base: All certain to vote. Data collected among c1,000 Scottish adults.

50% 55% 58%

39% 35% 30%

Yes

No

January 2012 June 2012 October 2012

Support for independence has fallen by nine points since

January

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here Support for independence – 35 year trend

Data taken from MORI and Ipsos MORI polling (1999-07 data taken from Scottish Social Attitudes Survey)

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

19

78

19

79

19

80

19

81

19

82

19

83

19

84

19

85

19

86

19

87

19

88

19

89

19

90

19

91

19

92

19

93

19

94

19

95

19

96

19

97

19

98

19

99

20

00

20

01

20

02

20

03

20

04

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

Su

pp

ort

fo

r in

de

pe

nd

en

ce

(%

)

Introduction of the poll tax

in Scotland Devolution referendum

Scottish Parliament opens

Devolution referendum

SNP form minority

government

SNP form majority

government

7 7 7 7 7 7

Scottish Parliament voting

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Q. If there were elections to the Scottish Parliament tomorrow, how would you use your first vote?

36%

39%

12%

8% 5% SNP

Labour

Others

40%

35%

13%

8% 4% SNP

Labour

Others

All giving a voting

intention (91%)

All who are certain to

vote (63%)

Base: All giving a voting intention = 88% (880); all certain to vote = 63% (642). Data collected among 1,003 Scottish adults 18+, 8-15 October 2012

Cons.

Lib Dem

Cons.

Lib Dem

SNP lead over Labour = -3% SNP lead over Labour = +5%

The SNP have a five point lead over Labour among those certain

to vote…

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Q. If there were elections to the Scottish Parliament tomorrow, how would you use your first vote?

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Labour SNP Conservative Liberal Democrats Other

40%

35%

13%

8% 4%

Scottish Parliament Election

Result

Scottish Parliament Election

Result


… although Labour have closed the gap considerably since

January

10 10 10 10 10 10

Satisfaction with party leaders

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Q. How satisfied or dissatisfied are you with the way … is doing his/her job as First Minister//Prime

Minister/Leader of Scottish Labour/the Scottish Liberal Democrats/the Scottish Conservatives?

Base: 1,003 Scottish adults 18+, 8-15 October 2012

Don‟t know Net satisfaction Net satisfaction

change (Jun

‟12)

9% +10% -3%

34% +5% -4%

39% -9% -2%

47% -7% -3%

62% +6% -6%

8% -35% +11%

Satisfaction with all party leaders has fallen since June – except for the

Prime Minister

64%

16%

30%

35%

30%

40%

29%

22%

23%

26%

35%

50%

David Cameron

Patrick Harvie

Willie Rennie

Ruth Davidson

Johann Lamont

Alex Salmond

Dissatisfied Satisfied

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Base: 1,003 Scottish adults 18+, 8-15 October 2012

Don‟t know Net satisfaction Net satisfaction

change (Jun

‟12)

8% +74% -10%

24% +40% -6%

23% +41% +15%

31% +39% +5%

9% +59% +27%

Satisfaction with Alex Salmond and Johann Lamont has fallen among their

own party’s supporters

16%

15%

18%

18%

9%

75%

54%

59%

58%

83%

David Cameron

Willie Rennie

Ruth Davidson

Johann Lamont

Alex Salmond

Dissatisfied Satisfied

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Satisfaction with party leader trends

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

Feb-10 Apr-10 Aug-10 Nov-10 Feb-11 Apr-11 Aug-11 Dec-11 Jan-12 Jun-12 Oct-12

Alex Salmond Johann Lamont Ruth Davidson Willie Rennie Patrick Harvie

50%

35%

26% 23% 22%


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• This presents the topline results from Scotland

• Results are based on a survey of 1,003 respondents

conducted by telephone

• Fieldwork dates: 8th October – 15th October 2012

• Data are weight by: age, sex and working status using

census data; tenure using SHS data; and public-private

sector employment using Scottish Government Quarterly

Public Sector Employment series data

• Where results do not sum to 100%, this may be due to

computer rounding, multiple responses, or the exclusion of

“don‟t know” categories

• Results are based on all respondents (1,003) unless

otherwise stated

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Thank you [email protected] | 0131 240 3269

[email protected] | 0131 240 3264 18.10.12

This work was carried out in accordance with the requirements of the international quality standard for market research, ISO 20252:2006. © Ipsos MORI

@IpsosMORIScot

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Scottish Public Opinion Monitor - October 2012