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Senate Special Committee on Aging

Why Population Aging Matters: A Global Perspective

 Joseph Chamie

Director of ResearchCenter for Migration Studies

New York, NY

21 May 2007Congressional Briefing

Dirksen Senate Office Building Washington, D.C.

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Historians may well conclude that the most

significant event of the 20th century was ...?

the growth of world population.

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And in the 21st century, the most significant event

may likely be ...?

the ageing of humanity.

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Population ageing is a triumph of civilization.

It is the inevitable consequence of attaining low levels of fertility and mortality and long life.

However, this achievement requires vital social and economic adjustments to current and expected future demographic realities.

In particular, population ageing raises critical issues for countries, states and cities in areas such as economic growth, employment and retirement, pensions, health care and social support services.

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Proportions Aged 65+ and Under Five: 1950-2050

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Oldest and Youngest Countries: (median age)

Nation 2005 2050Japan 43 55Italy 42 51Germany 42 49 WORLD 28 38Mali 16 25Niger 16 21Uganda 15 23

USA 36 41 China 33 45 India 24 39

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Percent 65 Years or Older for World and Italy:

1950, 2000 and 2050

57

16

8

18

36

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

1950 2000 2050Year

Pe

rce

nt

65

ye

ars

or

old

er

World

Italy

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Percent 80 Years or Older for World and Italy:

1950, 2000 and 2050

0.5 1

4

0.5

15

5

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

14.0

16.0

1950 2000 2050Year

Pe

rce

nt

80

ye

ars

or

old

er

World

Italy

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Potential Support Ratio (PSR) for World and Italy:1950-2050

11.6

9.1

4.1

7.9

3.7

1.5

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

1950 2000 2050

Year

Po

ten

tial

su

pp

ort

rat

io

(per

son

s 15

-64

per

p

erso

n 6

5 o

r o

lder

)

World

Italy

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Ratio of Workers to Pensioner and Pensioners in China: 1980-2005

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National Population Decline: 2006-2030(millions)

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Closing Points:

1. Population aging is an achievement of humanity.

2. Population aging is unprecedented, profound and pervasive.

3. Population aging presents enormous social, economic and political challenges for societies.

4. Finally, the sooner the necessary adjustments for population aging are made, the better because they will be easier and less costly!

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Thank you!