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March 17, 2015

Build, build, blast off

Sharda Ugra7 Share on Facebook Share on Twitter CommentIn contrast to previous World Cups, this time most teams seem to have followed a strategy of constructing an inningstill about the last quarter and then launching an all-out attack shares 7

Will AB de Villiers be brave enough to repeat his kamikaze batting in the heat of the knockouts?

In the southern hemisphere, where, as urban legend has it, water circles into a drain in the opposite direction to thatup north (not true), there has emerged one certainty. The rules, conventions and theories relating to ODI crickethave been stood on their head.

The smash-bang of the first 15 overs; the acceleration of the Powerplay, taken before the tail end of an innings; thedoubling of the 30-over score - that is all so 2011.

Through the group stages of this World Cup, there has been a change of tempo: with a bat-first innings paced like along-distance race: few frenzied starts, and the kick is kept for the end, like with Gebreselassie in his prime.

The statistics reveal the pattern: over the course of the last five World Cups, the shift in run rates has taken placenot in the first 15 overs despite batting-friendly fielding rules but rather in the death overs.

Run rates across the first ten overs in the last four World Cups have been fairly similar: from 4.54 (2003) to 4.38(2007), 4.73 (2011) and 4.74 (2015). The rationale for the change of ODI rules, bringing in Powerplays and fieldrestrictions, was to make 50-over games free of their turgid middle overs. The Powerplays were meant to lurebatsmen into taking the six-or-out cavalier approach, and at one point they did end up making batsmen overthink,and made them profligate in their shot selection as they tried to force the scoring rate, squandering wickets in theprocess.

Yet like water, the middle overs have found their level again - full of singles and steady cricket, nurdles and low-risk

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scoring. The new rules - a new ball at every end and only four fielders allowed outside the 30-yard circle - have addedto overs Nos. 15 to 35 being dealt with fairly respectfully by batsmen. Each World Cup has marked small changes inscoring rates in overs 15 to 35: from 4.33 in 2003 to 4.69 in 2007, dropping to 4.58 in 2011.

At the current World Cup teams have been content to score at 5.01 runs an over in the first innings, due to whattakes place in the last 12 or so overs.The big numbers - a direct reflection of the influence of T20, as well as of thenew rules - are to be found at the far end of a 50-over innings, in the last ten overs: from 6.98 in the West Indies2007 to 7.01 in India, Sri Lanka and Bangladesh 2011. And in 2015, the stratosphere is the limit; at the end of thegroup stage, it was 8.44 runs an over.

David Warner says Australia approach their 50 overs in two ways: "positive", aka attack in the first ten, and from thenon, "pick the gaps until the last 15". Teams with tall totals in the World Cup have, he said, "pretty much batted at anice rate to about the 30-over mark without losing too many wickets, and then they've gone from there for the last15 or 10 overs, accelerated and got 125 to 150 off that last 15 overs".

Pakistan's strategy is to let their pace bowlers go full t ilt early on and look for wickets

South Africa's Morne Morkel had sympathy for a fellow fast bowler. "Poor old Jason Holder bowled well against us andthen came back and went for 80. With two new hard balls, Powerplays at the back end, if teams have wickets inhand - those last 15 overs, you can easily go for ten an over if you don't have proper control. It's things we asbowlers are aware of."

A bowler knows, Morkel says, run-rate security is a misnomer for ODI bowlers: if he goes for seven apiece in his firstspell, it could well be 100 at the far end.

The way to tackle the onslaught is to take wickets. Pakistan captain Misbah-ul-Haq has said that asking his pacers togo full t ilt is the only way. For Pakistan, two spinners in the side is difficult, "because sometimes you lose that pressurewhich is built by the pacers, especially up front. Our approach is straightforward, simple: go out there, be positive,and especially when you are there to bowl, just try to get wickets."

Occasional Australia ODI captain George Bailey agrees that the bowling side must make the opening aggressive playwith the new ball and upset a team's innings construction all the way up to the 35th over. "As a bowling team, thebest way to negate that is to get a team five or six down by the time you get to that 35th-over mark. That makes itreally hard for the batting team to launch, or to know when to launch."

In helpful conditions, India with their spinners do the opposite of Pakistan and use scoreboard-pressure strangulationbetter than most teams. The rules that have changed the pattern of ODI play are not loved at all by MS Dhoni, asthey have made India play with one specialist batsman fewer. But it is the Indian pace bowling that has stepped upand given India a storm trooper performance in the group stage.

Everyone is largely in agreement about how the rules have impacted the tempo of the ODI at this World Cup, butMitchell Johnson wonders if the "fearlessness" of the last 12-15 overs may have to do with the relatively lower

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pressure of group games. Johnson said he always expects kamikaze batting at the end of a 50-over innings. "It iswhat we accept in this day and age. Two new balls with four fielders out makes it a litt le bit predictable." Will theapproach remain the same when the temperature of the tournament rises, as it will, starting on Wednesday? "It willbe interesting to see if there's a bit more pressure on how guys play the game. Coming into a quarter-final, we'll seeif guys are still prepared to play that type of cricket."

In the case of these latest ODI rules, the change has done the opposite of what the rules intended. They will be upfor review after this World Cup, and any new rules, if passed, will come into play only in October, for the next WorldCup cycle. The 50-over game is once again seeking to get the balance right between attack and defence.

With inputs from Firdose Moonda, Daniel Brettig and Brydon Coverdale

Sharda Ugra is senior editor at ESPNcricinfo

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