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Shocks and rural livelihoods in theOkavango Delta, BotswanaDonald L Kgathi , Barbara N Ngwenya & Julie WilkPublished online: 21 Jun 2007.

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Shocks and rural livelihoods in theOkavango Delta, Botswana

Donald L Kgathi, Barbara N Ngwenya & Julie Wilk1

This paper describes the impacts that three shocks in the Okavango Delta, Botswana, have had on

rural livelihoods: the desiccation of river channels, animal diseases, and HIV/AIDS. Primary data

was collected from five study areas, using formal questionnaire interviews and focus group discus-

sions. The paper reveals the adverse effects on rural livelihoods. It describes the way households

have been exposed to poverty and vulnerability and the various ways they have coped or adapted,

such as by re-allocating their labour, liquidating their assets to cover medical expenses and

funeral costs, reducing the area ploughed for crops, hiring labour, digging wells and switching

from flood recession agriculture to dryland farming. The Botswana government has provided

safety nets to help households cope, but this paper recommends that people’s responses to these

shocks should be taken into account in future policy and programme formulation.

1. INTRODUCTION

Households of the Okavango Delta in Botswana are prone to risk as they depend on

natural resources, which in turn depend on erratic rainfall and the variable water flow

of the Okavango River (Wolski et al., 2006). They are often adversely affected by

shocks, defined as large, unpredictable, irregular disturbances, as distinct from stresses,

which are smaller, predictable, regular and sometimes continuous (Pearce et al., 1989).

Shocks have a greater adverse effect on social, economic and environmental sustainabil-

ity than stresses, since they destroy assets (Ellis, 2000; Wisner et al., 2004).

Households’ responses to shocks include various ways of coping and adapting.

According to Ellis (2000), coping strategies are ‘short-term responses to an unplanned

crisis’ and are a form of ex post diversification. Coping strategies are not the same as

adaptive strategies, defined as long-term responses to shocks aimed at improving liveli-

hood security and poverty. According to Holzmann and Jorgensen (2000), poor

households are more vulnerable to shocks since they are more exposed and have

fewer instruments for risk management. Vulnerable households tend to be ‘defenceless’

because they are economically and socially dependent.

Knowing how households respond to shocks is of critical importance since it reveals

what the poor can do to help themselves in these circumstances. There has been only

limited research into these responses in the Okavango Delta (Kgathi et al., 2004), as is

the case with research into such responses worldwide, because they tend to be

‘ephemeral and change quickly’ and therefore ‘remain unnoticed and understudied’

1Respectively, Associate Professor, and Senior Research Fellow, Harry Oppenheimer OkavangoResearch Centre, University of Botswana; and Lecturer, Department of Water and EnvironmentalStudies, Linkoping University, Sweden. This study would not have been possible without the gen-erous financial support from the European Union (INCO-DC Programme, contract IC4-CT-2001-10040) and the University of Botswana. The authors’ special thanks also go to Professor PiersBlaikie of the University of East Anglia for critically reviewing the earlier draft of this paper,and to their colleagues at HOORC, Keta Mosepele and Monica Morrison, for reviewing thefinal draft.

Development Southern Africa Vol. 24, No. 2, June 2007

ISSN 0376-835X print/ISSN 1470-3637 online/07/020289-20# 2007 Development Bank of Southern AfricaDOI: 10.1080/03768350701327186

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(Wisner et al., 2004: 112). It is useful to understand people’s response strategies so as to

guide the formulation of interventions aimed at helping the poor.

The study described in this paper examined the impacts of shocks on rural livelihoods in

the Delta and how households respond to them. Its specific research objectives were to

(1) analyse the socio-economic impacts of shocks to rural livelihoods in the Delta;

(2) examine households’ adaptive strategies in response to these shocks; and finally

(3) determine the policy implications of the research findings.

The following section outlines the sustainable livelihoods framework, which is used as

an organising tool for the discussion. Section 3 describes the study areas and Section 4

outlines the methodology for the study. Section 5 presents the research results. Section 6

summarises the discussion and considers implications for policy.

2. THE SUSTAINABLE LIVELIHOODS FRAMEWORK

The sustainable rural livelihoods framework links the broader socio-economic com-

ponents of household assets, livelihood activities, outcomes of livelihood activities,

and factors mediating access to livelihood activities (Scoones, 1998; Ellis, 2000;

Farrington et al., 2004). According to Ellis (2000: 19), ‘a livelihood comprises the

assets (natural, physical, human, financial and social capital), the activities, and the

access to these (mediated by institutions and social relations) that together determine

the living gained by the individual or household’. Activities are strategies or various

ways in which households generate their livelihoods (Ellis, 2000). The means of securing

livelihoods are usually diversified, and can be natural resource or non-natural resource

based (Ellis, 2000). Examples of natural resource based activities in the Delta are

arable farming, livestock farming, collection of veld products, basket-making, fishing

and community based tourism. Non-natural resource based activities include formal

employment, rural trade and social protection programmes (see Figure 1; also Kgathi

et al., 2004).

Households use a combination of assets to secure livelihoods. These comprise natural,

physical, human, financial and social capital (Ellis, 2000). Different forms of livelihood

activities require access to different forms of capital in order to generate a livelihood.

Access to assets and adoption of livelihood strategies are mediated by social relations

and institutions or organisations and are also affected by trends and shocks (Ellis, 2000;

Figure 1). While institutions and social relations are factors endogenous to the household,

trends and shocks are exogenous (Ellis, 2000; Farrington et al., 2004). Scholars of the new

institutional economics define institutions as ‘rules, enforcement characteristics of rules,

and norms of behaviour that structure the repeated interaction’ (North, 1989: 1321).

Social relations are the way individuals and households are positioned in society. Such

positioning is determined by factors such as religion, class, age, ethnicity and gender

(Ellis, 2000). Trends include population change, economic growth, technological change

and change in development policies, whereas shocks include drought, diseases (of

crops, animals, and humans), pests, floods and civil war (Ellis, 2000).

According to Dercon (2001), the impacts of a shock will depend on its frequency and

intensity. Long lasting and persistent shocks make coping very difficult (Dercon,

2001), hence they have greater adverse impacts on rural livelihoods. In the Okavango

Delta, shocks include animal and human diseases, recurrent droughts and changing

flooding patterns. The flooding of the Delta, which depends on rainfall in the catchment

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area, influences access to natural capital such as land for flood recession agriculture and

water for human and animal consumption (Kgathi et al., 2005; Wolski et al., 2006).

Desiccation of river channels and flooding are common shocks in the Delta and they

result in adverse impacts on rural livelihoods. Droughts deplete assets such as natural

and financial capital, hence adversely affecting the diversification of livelihood

portfolios.

3. THE STUDY AREAS

Though this study focused on certain specific villages, the Okavango Delta – situated in

Ngamiland District in northern Botswana – was the general study area. According to the

2001 census, the population of Ngamiland was estimated at 125 000, of which 76 per

cent was based in the Delta area. This Delta, a globally renowned Ramsar site, is an

important feature of Ngamiland. It is estimated that 95 per cent of the Okavango

River water that flows into this alluvial fan is generated in the upper headwaters in

Angola. The Delta and its wetland are a great attraction for tourism, the second most

important economic activity in Botswana after diamonds (Kgathi et al., 2005). Botswana,

with a per capita income of US$3430 (2003) has one of the fastest growing economies in

Africa (World Bank, 2005), though its performance in human development has declined

since the 1990s as a result of the HIV/AIDS pandemic.

The specific study areas, situated in both the lower and upper parts of the Delta, were the

villages of Shorobe, Etsha 6, Seronga, Gudigwa and Sehitwa (Figure 2), whose main

livelihood activities are arable farming, social protection programmes, livestock

agriculture and formal employment (Kgathi et al., 2005). Table 1 shows that the 2001

population in these villages ranged from 732 in Gudigwa to 2629 in Etsha 6.

Figure 1: A framework for livelihood analysis of rural households

(Slightly adapted from Ellis (2000) for application to the Okavango Delta region):

Notes: CBNRM – Community Based Natural Resources Management; ITK –

Indigenous Technical Knowledge (ITK)

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Figure 2: Map of the Okavango Delta showing the study areas (Source: Fieldwork, 2003)

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4. METHODOLOGY

4.1 Data collection

The primary data was collected from the five study areas, using formal questionnaire

interviews, informal interviews and focus group discussions. The formal interview

questionnaire survey was undertaken in August, September and October 2003, after

a pre-test had been done in the village of Tubu, near the town of Gumare (Figure 2).

A detailed questionnaire, with closed and open ended questions, was used to collect

household data. Since the level of literacy in the study areas was low, individual ques-

tionnaires were administered to households face-to-face in Setswana, the national

language. The number of households interviewed in the study areas was 129, the

numbers for the individual study areas being as shown in Table 1. A two-stage stratified

random sampling method was used to select the sample. A random sample of enumer-

ations was selected, and within each enumeration area a systematic random sample was

selected using a list drawn for the 2001 Census. The sampling unit was a household,

and those interviewed were heads of households. The households were categorised

into poor, middle and rich peasants, based on the assets they held and the income

earned.

Information was also collected through six focus group discussions in the villages of

Gudigwa, Sehitwa, Shorobe and Seronga from key informants from different parts of

the village who shared similar characteristics (such as age, gender and social standing).

A set of interview instructions was used to steer the interview process and help focus

discussion on key themes. Each group discussion had a facilitator and a transcriber.

Group discussions lasted for about two hours, depending on the dynamics of the

group. The issues covered varied with the village, but were generally: 1) livelihood

activities in the village and their ranking; 2) the drying up of river channels; 3) the

killing of cattle to eradicate cattle lung disease; 4) drought; 5) damage of crops by

wildlife; and 6) HIV/AIDS.

4.2 Data analysis

The quantitative household questionnaire data was coded, cleaned up and entered for

analysis in Statistical Package for the Social Sciences (SPSS) (12.1). Analysis was in

the form of frequency distributions, measures of central tendency, and variation. In

addition, the Chi Square Test of Independence was used to test for association

between variables. Qualitative data from informal interviews, focus group discussions

and open ended questions were analysed thematically (Weiss, 1994). This involved

reduction, display and summarising of data into themes.

Table 1: Population, number of households and sample sizes in the study areas

Etsha 6 Gudigwa Sehitwa Shorobe Seronga

Population (2001) 2629 732 1478 955 1641

Number of households (2001) 580 112 416 201 364

Number of households interviewed 36 18 28 17 30

Source: CSO, 2002a.

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5. RESULTS

5.1 Overview of the patterns of livelihoods

In recent years, new livelihood activities such as social welfare schemes, tourism, sale of

veld products, and new employment opportunities have emerged in Ngamiland. The tra-

ditional livelihood activities of agriculture (both arable and livestock), fishing, and

hunting and gathering still play a significant role, but their importance has been

reduced, partly because the land they depended on (and its resources) is now used for

other activities such as tourism and conservation. There has been a marked increase in

the development of tourism in the Delta. The policies and regulations for its promotion

have curtailed access to veld products and hunting, with some increase in commercial

opportunities in craftwork, cultural tourism, tracking and guide-work. In particular,

the poor socio-economic groups have been more negatively affected by these changes

as they are more dependent on the collection of veld products and hunting (Kgathi

et al., 2004). There is therefore an increase in vulnerability to shocks in the Delta and

the rest of Ngamiland. A substantial number of households are now increasingly

relying on social protection programmes such as food rations and the old age pension,

which act as important safety nets.

Arable agriculture was ranked by 23 per cent of the households as the first most import-

ant livelihood activity (column A in Table 2). The second most important livelihood

activity in the first most important category (column A in the table) was formal employ-

ment (mainly tourism related), which was ranked by 21 per cent of the households. This

was followed by livestock farming and government protection programmes (excluding

drought relief programme), which were both ranked third by 9 per cent of the households.

However, when the ranking of the livelihood activities of the second most important cat-

egory (column B) is examined, arable agriculture still takes a lead as the most frequently

ranked livelihood activity (17 per cent of the households), followed by government pro-

tection programmes (11 per cent) and livestock farming (9 per cent).

Table 2: Livelihood activities of the Okavango Delta ranked by how households

accord importance

A B C

Livelihood activity

% of h/h ranking

livelihoods as

first n ¼ 129

% of h/h ranking

livelihoods as

second n ¼ 129

% of h/h ranking

livelihoods as

third n ¼ 129

D

Average % of a,

b, and c

Arable agriculture 23.3 17.1 7.0 15.8

Livestock farming 9.3 8.5 5.4 7.7

Formal employment 20.9 7.0 0.8 9.6

Basket making 1.6 7.0 4.7 4.4

Remittances 7.0 3.1 4.1 4.7

Government assistance 9.3 10.9 9.3 9.8

Drought relief projects 4.7 1.6 5.4 3.9

Beer brewing 3.9 10.1 1.6 5.2

Others 11.6 5.4 7.8 8.3

Note: These columns do not add up to 100% because households mentioned more than livelihood strategy.

However, the percentages are generally low because some of the households did not do the ranking of liveli-

hood activities.

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However, social protection programmes became the most frequently ranked activity

among the activities of the third most important category (column C). Livestock

farming and drought relief were ranked the third most important livelihood activities.

Although livestock farming was once the most important livelihood activity in

Ngamiland before the eradication of livestock in 1995/96, it is now significantly less

important (Fidzani et al., 1999). When the frequencies of choices in the first, second,

and third categories (columns A, B and C) are added together and averaged, arable

agriculture is still perceived to be the most important livelihood activity (16 per cent)

followed by government protection programmes (9.8 per cent) and formal employment

(9.6 per cent) (Table 2). These frequencies should be considered the most accurate as

they have been averaged from the first, second and third most important choices.

Other studies have also revealed that arable agriculture, formal employment and social

protection programmes are the most important livelihood activities in Ngamiland

(Fidzani et al., 1999). A comprehensive survey undertaken in Ngamiland in 1997

revealed that arable farming, salaries and social protection programmes were ranked

as the first most important sources of livelihood in Ngamiland by 37 per cent, 17 per

cent and 15 per cent of the households, respectively (Fidzani et al., 1999). The Every

River Has Its People (ERHIP) survey undertaken in 22 villages of the Delta revealed

that arable agriculture was the most important livelihood activity in these villages,

ranked by 39 per cent of the households as the first most important livelihood activity,

followed by formal employment, ranked by 18 per cent of the households.

5.2 Impacts of shocks and household responses

Common shocks in the Delta are animal and human diseases, recurrent droughts and

changing flood distribution patterns. Animal diseases include cattle lung disease, conta-

gious bovine pleuropneumonia (CBPP) and African animal trypanosomiasis (nagana),

and human diseases include HIV/AIDS and malaria. In Ngamiland, droughts were

experienced in the periods 1964–1965, 1982–1988 and 1995. During the 1982–1988

droughts, 28 per cent of the cattle died. Figure 3 shows that the average crop yields

Figure 3: Maize yield variations in relation to precipitation in Ngamiland (Source:Bendsen & Meyer, 2003)

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for the period 1982–1986 were lower than 100 kg/ha. In the study areas, 73 per cent and65 per cent of the households perceived drought to be a constraint on arable and livestock

agriculture, respectively. Drought mainly affects dryland farming, which is dependent on

rainfall, but does not affect molapo farming (flood recession farming) which is more

dependent on the Okavango River floods. There are more farmers involved in dryland

farming than in molapo farming in Ngamiland. For instance, in 1997 and 1998

dryland farmers accounted for 73 per cent and 84 per cent of all the farmers, respectively,

whereas molapo farmers accounted for the remaining 27 per cent and 16 per cent,

respectively (Kgathi et al., 2005).

Crops being damaged by wildlife and livestock killed by predators were two of the main

constraints on livelihood security in the study areas. The number of cases of livestock

killings in Ngamiland ranged from 326 in 2000 to 1200 in 2003, and the cases of crop

damage from 121 in 1999 to 196 in 2003. Elephants are the main cause of crop

damage. There is a general concern that there are too many elephants in the North

West District. This is mainly attributed to the international embargo imposed by the Con-

vention on International Trade in Endangered Species (CITES) on elephant products in

local and international markets (Darkoh & Mbaiwa, 2002). The following sections

analyse in detail three particular shocks to rural livelihoods and the way households

respond to them: the desiccation of river channels, cattle lung disease (contagious

bovine pleuropneumonia), and the HIV/AIDS pandemic.

5.2.1 Desiccation of river channels

Although the Okavango River Basin is relatively pristine, a number of the Delta channels

and floodplains have dried up at various periods (Figure 4), particularly in the past 30

years. This has adversely affected the livelihoods of those who depend on river water

and the associated resources. Two reasons for the drying up of river channels have

been identified: shifts in flow distribution patterns, caused by sedimentation, and a

general decline in the inflow of the Okavango River and local rainfall observed

between the 1970s and 2000s (Wolski & Murray-Hudson, 2006). The sedimentation

process, caused by the low topographic gradient, may lead to blockages and eventually

to avulsions – ‘the diversion of a channel to a new course at a lower elevation in the

floodplain’ (McCarthy et al., 1992), a process that could also be triggered by tectonics.

The desiccation of river channels and the formation of new ones is a natural process

caused by the accumulation of sediments, resulting in the growth of vegetation that

causes blockages and avulsions. Changes in flood distribution are of two kinds,

causing two kinds of desiccation. Sedimentation makes the flow switch to another part

of the river system, causing some parts to dry up. With a reduction in inflow and local

rainfall, however, the flood water is still distributed throughout the system, but in

reduced quantities.

The Thaoge River, which used to flow to Lake Ngami, became desiccated in the 1880s

because of blockages caused by floating plant debris, leading to the formation of the

Nqoga channel in the early 1900s (McCarthy et al., 1992). The Gomoti and Santantadibe

rivers, which used to flow to the Thamalakane River, have dried up, adversely affecting

the supply of water to Shorobe village. The Santantadibe last flowed to the Thamalakane

in the 1980s, and the flow of the Gomoti has been sporadic since the 1950s. The

desiccation of these rivers is attributed partly to the blockage of the Mboroga River,

which has affected the flow of the water to the Gomoti and Santantadibe River channels

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(Bernard & Moetapele, 2003), and partly to the general decline of flood extent observed

between the 1970s and 1990s (Wolski et al., 2003).

A number of rivers and floodplains dried up in the 1970s and 1980s because of the

general decline in inflow and local rainfall: the Nhabe River, which used to flow to

Lake Ngami near the study area of Sehitwa, the floodplains that supplied the study

area of Gudigwa, and the Thaoge River that supplied the villages of Gumare, Nokaneng

and Tsau (near the study area of Etsha 6).

Figure 4: Map of the Okavango Delta showing channels and flood plains that have

dried up

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5.2.2 Impacts of desiccation

The desiccation of river channels and floodplains has adversely affected access to water

resources (for humans and livestock), molapo farming, fishing and the harvesting of veld

products in the study areas. In Shorobe and Sehitwa, the drying up of the nearby rivers

has resulted in a serious shortage of water for both humans and livestock. Edible veld

products (tsita, tswii, mokotsumo, mochaba) and others used for various purposes (for

example mokola palm, which is used for making baskets) became depleted, and can

nowadays be described as economically scarce.

Focus group discussions clearly revealed that the drying up of the river channels in

Shorobe was a disaster with more dramatic impacts than the 1996 eradication of cattle

in the area, because only a few households owned cattle and those affected were

partly compensated, whereas the desiccation of the river channels has affected everyone

and there has not been subsequent compensation for the losses.

5.2.3 Adaptive strategies

The people whose livelihoods have been affected by the drying up of the river channels

and floodplains have coped and adapted in various ways. As the river dried up, some of

the households dug wells. Others had no means to cope and adapt and no access to safety

nets, and so became poor and vulnerable. Our survey revealed the main strategies

adopted by Sehitwa households as a reaction to the drying up of the Nhabe River and

Lake Ngami, rated in the following order of importance: 1) digging wells (28 per

cent), switching from molapo farming to dryland farming (28 per cent), and depending

on the government for water supply (20 per cent) (Figure 5). It was necessary to dig wells

to provide water for humans and livestock to drink.

Figure 5: Adaptive strategies to the drying up of the river in three villages

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In Sehitwa people switched from molapo farming to dryland farming because the soils

were suitable for this, but in Shorobe the soils were generally not suitable (being

sandy and infertile) and here only 11 per cent of the households switched to dryland

farming, while the rest continued to plough their molapo fields under dry conditions.

Dryland molapo farming is a special type of dryland farming done in depressions

where run-off rainwater may collect. Social protection programmes acted as a buffer

against loss of livelihood owing to the desiccation of the rivers. In Shorobe a significant

proportion of households (43 per cent) relied on government assistance for their water

supply. In Gudigwa, 55 per cent of the households said they dug wells in response to

the drying up of the nearby floodplains; in Sehitwa only 14 per cent did this, and 5

per cent in Shorobe. The high proportion in Gudigwa could be because most of the

households there did not previously have wells as they had just been resettled.

5.2.4 Internal migration and local mobility

In addition to the above-mentioned adaptive strategies, some households out-migrated or

moved to other areas because of the desiccation: 27 per cent of the households reported

that some people had done this. The most striking movements, in the form of both

internal migration and short-term mobility, occurred in Shorobe, Sehitwa and Etsha

6. In Shorobe, 59 per cent of the households interviewed said the drying up of the

Gomoti River had acted as a push factor for some of the households to move as their

shallow wells dried up, some to a number of localities close to Shorobe (which had

water resources supplied by the government) and some to other villages such as Matsaudi

and Matlapaneng. Table 3 illustrates the impact of the drying up of the Gomoti on the

population of a number of localities near Shorobe.

The 1981–1991 inter-censual growth rates for these villages were positive, except for

Makoba. However, the growth rates for the 1991–2001 inter-censual period were nega-

tive as a result of the decrease in their population. For instance, the growth rates for the

inter-censual period 1991–1991 for Xabe, Gobomochaa and Xuxao were29.4 per cent,

22 per cent and 212.9 per cent, respectively. As a result of such migrations and local

mobility, the population of Shorobe grew by 2.3 per cent from 758 in 1991 to 955 in

2001, despite the fact that some of the Shorobe people had also out-migrated to Maun

Table 3: Trends in the population of Shorobe village and associated localities

1981 1991 2001

Population growth

rate (%): 1981–1991

Population growth

rate (%): 1991–2001

Shorobe 539 758 955 3.4 2.3

Xabe 78 126 49 4.8 29.4

Shokomokwe 86 118 79 3.2 24.0

Gobomochaa 109 89 23 2.0 213.5

Xuxau 125 252 69 7.0 212.9

Makoba 59 51 41 21.5 22.2

Mochaba 82 105 151 2.5 3.6

Source: CSO, 1982, 1992, 2002b.

Note: Population growth rates estimated by one of the authors using the exponential formula: Pn ¼ Poern, where e

is a mathematical constant with the value 2.71827, r is the population growth rate, and n is the inter-census period.

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and other places. Informal interviews revealed that those who remained in the above

localities when others out-migrated to Shorobe were mainly the poor households, as

they could not afford the costs of relocation. On the other hand, those who out-migrated

to Maun from Shorobe were mainly the economically active. This is confirmed by the

fact that the village of Shorobe’s population now has a very high proportion of people

over the age of 65 (Kgathi et al., 2004).

In Sehitwa, 54 per cent of the households reported that some people had out-migrated as

a result of the drying up of Nhabe River and Lake Ngami to a number of areas such as

Tsau, Maun, Setlatla, Maila, Naune and Dobe, where groundwater or surface water could

easily be obtained (Table 4). It was also reported that others had moved their livestock to

other areas such as Kgomotshwaana and Habu, where there was plenty of groundwater.

However, most of the respondents complained that in these areas predators were a

problem for their livestock.

Studies on rural settlement in Botswana have revealed that scarcity of water is one of the

reasons why people do not permanently settle in the lands areas (masimo) in Botswana

(Silitshena, 1982). Lack of water drives them away from the lands areas and draws them

towards the villages, where schools, health services, employment and social amenities

can be found. It is expected that this kind of movement will continue in response to

the ongoing desiccation.

5.3 Eradication of cattle lung disease

Besides the drought and the desiccation of river channels and the killing of livestock by

predators, there are other factors that constrain livestock production in the Delta, such as

animal diseases and lack of veterinary and marketing services. The livelihood survey

revealed that the majority of the households (83 per cent) saw livestock diseases as a

major constraint, followed by drought (65 per cent) and desiccation of river channels

(30 per cent). Animal diseases have adversely affected livelihoods in the past 30 years

in Ngamiland. Some of the diseases which have affected cattle are CBPP, trypanosomia-

sis and foot and mouth. For illustrative purposes, this section examines the impacts of the

eradication of CBPP on rural livelihoods in the Ngamiland, and the coping and adaptive

mechanisms adopted by households to mitigate these impacts.

5.3.1 Impacts of the killing of cattle

In an attempt to eradicate CBPP, all the 320 000 cattle in Ngamiland were killed in

1995/1996, to protect the lucrative European Union beef market, as the disease would

Table 4: Frequencies of households who said other households emigrated

Village Frequencies

Number of

households (N) % frequencies

Gudigwa 2 18 11.1

Sehitwa 15 28 53.6

Shorobe 10 17 58.8

Etsha 8 36 22.2

Source: Fieldwork.

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spread to other areas (Townsend & Segwele, 1998). Restocking took place in 1997. In

the study areas, 69 per cent of the households reported that they were among those

whose cattle were killed. There was an association between the frequencies of those

whose cattle were killed and the households’ socio-economic status, at a 5 per cent

level of significance (x2 ¼ 16.8, probability less than .0005). For instance, all the rich

households (100 per cent) said their cattle had been eradicated, as compared to 79 per

cent of the middle and 53 per cent of the poor households. According to Ndozi et al.

(1999), before the eradication of cattle in 1996, 70 per cent of the households interviewed

in Ngamiland said they owned cattle, as compared to 30 per cent after the eradication in

1999.

The government compensated farmers in cash or cattle or both, depending on their

choice (Fidzani et al., 1999). Informal interviews revealed that the majority of the house-

holds in the study areas, particularly those with small herds, received 100 per cent cash

compensation, rather than being compensated with cattle. The killing of cattle had drastic

effects on the livelihoods of the rural people in Ngamiland, the principal ones being the

loss of draught power, milk, meat and social security. The eradication of cattle also

reduced the number of people who depended on arable agriculture as a source of liveli-

hood: in 1996, before the eradication, 52 per cent of the households ranked it as their first

most important livelihood activity, compared to 37 per cent in 1997 (Fidzani et al.,

1999). This decline is attributed to a reduction in the availability of draught power

(Ndozi et al., 1999), which was mentioned as a major constraint on arable agriculture

by 41 per cent of the respondents. The lack of milk and meat because of the eradication

caused increased malnutrition in the under-fives (Fidzani et al., 1999). According to

Ndozi et al. (1999), malnutrition due to lack of protein increased from 4.2 per cent in

1995 before the eradication to 8.8 per cent in 1996, 11.3 per cent in 1997 and 8.4 per

cent, in 1998. The number of male agricultural labourers was reduced by 33 per cent

in Ngamiland from 1325 before the eradication to 884 after it, mainly because herd

boys lost their employment (Fidzani et al., 1999).

Focus group discussions and informal interviews revealed that the killing of cattle was

one of the worst shocks experienced in the past 20 years (although its effects were

less severe than those of HIV/AIDS and the desiccation of river channels in Sehitwa

and Shorobe). However, it is important to note that the direct costs of the eradication

of the disease were far lower than the accumulated costs to the economy would have

been if the disease had not been controlled (Townsend & Segwele, 1998). Eradicating

all the cattle in Ngamiland was the most realistic strategy to pursue.

5.3.2 Household coping mechanisms

The livelihood survey revealed that the coping strategies adopted to ameliorate the

effects of cattle eradication in the study areas included reducing the area of land

ploughed, resorting to donkeys as a form of draught power, switching to hoeing, and

hiring draught power. In Sehitwa, where livestock farming is an important activity,

more than 44 per cent of the households whose cattle were eradicated reported that

they had resorted to donkeys (provided by the government), despite a general concern

that donkeys are not as suitable as cattle for draught power because they are very

slow, with the result that less land is being ploughed. Other households either switched

to hoeing as a method of ploughing or gave up arable farming to engage in alternative

activities, such as formal employment and beer brewing.

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Although the government supplied the affected households with donkey draught power

and temporary food rations, most households reported that the eradication of cattle had

made them poorer and more vulnerable to poverty. They also reported that their arable

production had declined because of the lack of draught power, that they had reduced

access to meat, milk, and meat and milk products (for home consumption and sale),

and had lost their revenue from the sale of cattle.

The way the cash compensation for the killing of cattle was used made a number of

households in Ngamiland more vulnerable to poverty. Focus group discussions and

informal interviews revealed that some of the households were registered as destitute

persons after their cattle were killed, particularly those who had fewer cattle before

the eradication. This category of households also tended to be those who had obtained

100 per cent cash compensation for the eradication of their cattle. The cash was in

most cases spent rather than invested. According to Fidzani et al. (1999), 58 per cent

of households received 100 per cent cash compensation, 24 per cent received 70 per

cent, 13 per cent received 30 per cent, and 3.5 per cent did not know what type of com-

pensation they had received. Although it was a realistic strategy for the government to

eradicate all the cattle, the giving of cash compensation to some of the households

should have been avoided.

5.4 HIV/AIDS

The HIV/AIDS epidemic, an issue of major concern worldwide, poses a major threat to

households in the Delta and the rest of Botswana. Though it is a global problem, it is con-

centrated in the developing countries, particularly in sub-Saharan Africa (Cohen, 2001).

HIV/AIDS differs from other shocks because it 1) has long-term impacts, 2) attacks the

most productive cohorts, 3) puts heavy pressure on women as they play a leading role in

caring for the sick and orphans, and 4) significantly reduces the gross national product

(GNP) (Barnett & Blaikie, 1992; White & Robinson, 2000; Bayles, 2002). Shocks

such as animal diseases and the desiccation of river channels do not have such

devastating impacts on human welfare.

5.4.1 Magnitude and impacts of the epidemic

Barnett and Blaikie (1992) categorise households associated with the impacts of HIV/AIDS as ‘AIDS-affected’ or ‘AIDS-afflicted’, the former being those that are not infected

but have used their resources to support households afflicted by HIV/AIDS (support of

orphans), and the latter being households with members who are ill or have died from

HIV/AIDS. They refer to households that are neither affected nor afflicted by HIV/AIDS as ‘unaffected households’. However, this distinction was not apparent in our

study area as almost all the households had suffered from the HIV epidemic. Hence a

more useful categorisation of households would be one that indicated the level of

effect, e.g. the ‘most affected households’ or the ‘least affected households’.

The Botswana AIDS Impact Survey II of 2004 revealed that the percentage of people

who are HIV/AIDS positive was 16 per cent in Ngamiland South and 13 per cent in

Ngamiland North, as compared to the national figure of 17 per cent (CSO, 2004).

The livelihood survey revealed that 46 per cent of the households had chronically ill

members in the past year, and some of them had already died. The perceived impacts

of HIV/AIDS in the study areas included increased financial costs (46 per cent of the

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households), pressure on agricultural labour (22 per cent) and loss of employment (22 per

cent). The epidemic has negative effects on financial resources because of the costs of

transporting patients to health services, medical fees and funerals. There is pressure

on the agricultural sector because the availability of labour has been reduced owing to

the morbidity and mortality of prime age adults, and employment is lost because of

the long-term illness of some of the household members, which is particularly serious

in the case of breadwinners.

By implication, as adult mortality increases, regardless of the causes of death, so does the

possibility of surviving dependants, especially children, being displaced from estab-

lished family relations. The 2001 population census indicates that there were 40 994

orphans in Botswana, the highest incidence being in Ngamiland West, where orphans

account for 4 per cent of the total population. In the research areas, registered orphans

accounted for 4.2 per cent of the population in Gudigwa, 6.2 per cent in Etsha 6, 5.4

per cent in Sehitwa, 7.1 per cent in Seronga and 9.4 per cent in Shorobe.

Focus group discussions in Shorobe, Gudigwa and Seronga revealed that the HIV/AIDSepidemic was the most devastating shock they had ever experienced, not comparable

with other shocks in Botswana, since it resulted in illness and death. All members of

the focus group mentioned that they had experienced the death of either a household

member or a close relative. In their opinion, shocks such as drought, desiccation of

river channels and damage of crops by wildlife also had adverse effects on their liveli-

hoods, but these impacts did not compare with those of HIV/AIDS.

5.4.2 Coping and vulnerability

Focus group discussions and informal interviews revealed various ways that households

coped with HIV/AIDS in the study areas. The principal strategies included reduction in

child-bearing, intra-household re-allocation of labour, liquidating assets such as live-

stock to cover medical expenses and funeral costs, seeking the support of the extended

family and participating in burial societies.

Informal interviews in the study areas revealed that child-bearing is no longer an attrac-

tive option for women because of the risk of HIV infection. This demographic change

has partly contributed to a reduction in fertility, as confirmed by national and district

data from the 1981, 1991 and 2001 censuses. The total fertility rate (births per

woman) in Botswana dropped from 6.6 in 1981 to 4.2 in 1991 and 3.27 in 2001

(Ramolemana & Shongwe, 2003). Despite the high mortality rates of the prime age

population, the dependency ratios in Ngamiland have decreased from 124 per cent in

1991 to 83 per cent in 2001 (Majelantle, 2003). This could be attributed to low fertility

rates and the increase in infant mortality.

Besides liquidating assets and sharing labour amongst households, another strategy used

by some households was to abandon their livelihood activities when some of the house-

hold members who were actively involved in production activities became sick or died.

Informal interviews in Sehitwa and Shorobe revealed that most households either

reduced the area they ploughed or abandoned both arable and livestock agriculture

altogether. The adverse impacts on livelihood activities resulting from HIV/AIDShave marginalised and impoverished a number of households in the study areas. Accord-

ing to several respondents in our informal interviews, the most affected were female-

headed households and poor households in general.

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The extended family still plays an important role in caring for the sick and orphans in

Botswana. The focus group discussions revealed that most of the orphans in the study

areas of Seronga, Gudigwa and Shorobe were taken care of by their relatives.

This suggests that social capital is an important safety net for the afflicted households.

However, the family institution is now under great pressure as a result of the

increasing number of orphans, and the question is whether it will continue to cope

in future.

Apart from the extended family, there are social support groups, which help afflicted

households in the event of death. These include formal groups such as burial societies

and informal social groups that provide financial, social and psychological support.

Informal interviews in Shorobe and Sehitwa revealed that some of the ethnic

groups such as Herero and Batawana have burial societies and, in the event of

death, the members make financial contributions to the afflicted households, besides

providing their labour and psychological support. Relatives of the deceased also

provide financial, psychological and social support, and the level of such support nor-

mally depends on the degree of closeness to the deceased and the socio-economic

status of the provider.

6. DISCUSSION AND CONCLUSION

6.1 Summary of shocks

The drying up of the channels and flood plains has adversely affected access to water

resources (for humans and livestock), flood recession agriculture, fishing and veld pro-

ducts, and is perceived to be a worse disaster than the 1996 eradication of cattle. House-

holds have responded by digging wells, switching from flood recession to dryland

agriculture, depending on the government for water supply, and out-migrating to areas

with reliable water sources. The findings support other studies in developing countries

which reveal that out-migration is usually adopted as one of the strategies for ex post

diversification (Ellis, 2000).

Another shock, the killing of cattle in Ngamiland to eradicate CBPP, has resulted in loss

of draught power, milk, meat and social security. Households have responded by redu-

cing the area ploughed, using donkeys for draught power, and resorting to hoeing as a

method of ploughing. Government compensation of households was poorly handled:

many consumed rather than invested the cash, thus increasing their vulnerability to

poverty and destitution.

Furthermore, the HIV/AIDS pandemic has had the most devastating effects on liveli-

hoods. It has put pressure on agricultural labour as a result of the morbidity and mortality

of prime age adults, increased financial costs, and caused loss of employment. It has mar-

ginalised and impoverished a number of households in the study areas, the most affected

socio-economic groups being female-headed households and other poor peasants. The

principal coping strategies for households have included re-allocating household

labour, liquidating assets to cover medical expenses and funeral costs, seeking the

support of the extended family, participating in burial societies and enrolling in govern-

ment social welfare support programmes.

It was revealed that the impact of HIV/AIDS is significantly different from that of other

shocks since it results in illness and death, with very adverse impacts on livelihoods.

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The epidemic tended to affect the economically active population more than other

population groups, and this is likely to have adverse impacts on the economy.

6.2 Implications for interventions

The research results on the impacts of desiccation of river channels and the strategies

adopted by households to adapt to this problem could be used to construct scenarios

for assessing the possible socio-economic impacts of desiccation of river channels in

the Okavango Basin, and may be useful to researchers in other river basins for designing

similar surveys.

The outbreak of animal diseases is a worldwide problem, and other countries can draw

lessons from the Botswana experience. Although it was realistic to kill all the cattle

before the disease spread to other parts of the country in order to protect the lucrative

European Union beef market, this may be a difficult option to pursue for low-income

developing countries with limited financial resources, particularly if the costs of compen-

sation are high.

Although interventions aimed at addressing the impacts of other shocks such as the

desiccation of river channels and drought could also be useful for addressing the

impacts of HIV/AIDS, they may not necessarily be appropriate for mitigating its

impacts, owing to the distinct nature of the epidemic. Those who support the view

that general anti-poverty strategies are relevant to the mitigation of the impacts of

HIV/AIDS (White & Robinson, 2000) are ignoring the uniqueness of the impacts of

the epidemic, as revealed by this study. Policy makers need to take account of house-

holds’ responses to shocks when making policy interventions, in order not to make

wrong decisions, as the impacts of shocks are not necessarily similar.

Shocks tend to adversely affect environmental entitlements, which are important sources

of livelihoods for the rural population. It is generally known that a decline in environ-

mental entitlements further aggravates poverty and environmental degradation (Leach

et al., 1999), and although poverty is not an underlying cause of this degradation, it accel-

erates the process (Barbier, 1991). Thus, the extent to which poverty causes environ-

mental degradation depends on the options available to the poor to respond to the

problem, but usually such options are limited and consequently the poor often resort

to the overuse of natural resources (Barbier, 1991). The shocks and the subsequent

poverty may result in the degradation of the biodiversity of the Delta, particularly if

appropriate management measures are not taken.

Finally, diversification of livelihood strategies can be useful for poverty alleviation in

Ngamiland. For instance, households that depend on natural resource based activities

are more affected by drought or desiccation, whereas those that depend on non-natural

resource based activities are less affected (Kgathi et al., 2004). The sustainable

livelihood framework is therefore a useful tool for guiding interventions on poverty alle-

viation, as it also allows for the categorisation of livelihood activities and the factors

influencing them. This research will be of use in the formulation of the Delta

Management Plan, which aims at promoting the integrated sustainable management of

the Delta’s natural resources so that future generations can also derive benefits from

these resources (ODMP Secretariat, 2006). As already stated, if the socio-economic

sub-system is negatively affected by shocks, it is likely to negatively affect the bio-

physical sub-system, further reducing its ability to provide goods and services.

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