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Shutting Down Nuclear Power Plants: Economic and Environmental Impacts. 15 June 2011 Professor Paul Fischbeck Carnegie Mellon University [email protected] 412-268-3240 David Rode DAI Management Consultants, Inc. [email protected] 412-220-8920. Shutting Down Nuclear Power Plants. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
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Shutting Down Nuclear Power Plants: Economic and Environmental Impacts
15 June 2011
Professor Paul FischbeckCarnegie Mellon University
David RodeDAI Management Consultants, Inc.
1
Shutting Down Nuclear Power Plants• Since Fukushima, there has been discussion of the risks imposed by
nuclear power plants and several countries have taken steps to reduce use of nuclear power– Scheduled complete shutdowns of all reactors in Germany by 2022
and Switzerland by 2032– June 2011 Italian referendum curtails development
• Question: Given various criteria for shutting down nuclear plants, what would be the impact on environmental and economic metrics in the United States?– Individual plants– All plants exposed to natural risks (earthquakes, hurricanes, tornados)– Plants with specific characteristics (individual, age, manufacturer)– Characteristics of surrounding region (population, political support)
• Interactive spreadsheet to allow users to investigate various combinations of shutdown rules– Model and background information can be downloaded from: http
://www.cedm.epp.cmu.edu/tools.php2
Reasons for Curtailing
Operations?
3http://theboldcorsicanflame.wordpress.com/2011/03/26/u-s-nuclear-reactor-power-plant-seismic-hazard-and-historical-earthquakes/
http://www.mapcruzin.com/nuclear-plants-risk-us/
http://www.emsei.psu.edu/hazards/hurr2.htm
Method• All power generation facilities for each North American Electric Reliability
Council (NERC) region were modeled (total over 16,000 plants)– Historical capacity factor– Emissions rates– Variable costs (sorted)
• Nuclear plants were turned off based on risk/decision criteria• Lost production made up by increasing the output of non-nuclear power
plants with extra capacity in order of marginal cost (cheapest first)– Used NERC forced outage rates for coal and gas to determine available capacity– Assumed all production made up within each NERC region
• Calculated cost of generation with new mix of plants is a lower bound– Infinitely elastic (did not model change in cost caused by additional demand)– Does not include transmission and distribution costs– Pipeline capacity would be reached for some regions well before demand is met– For some scenarios, increase demand would send NG prices much higher
4
The Model• All “yellow” cells are user selectable• Options for shutting down all plants or using a filter to select a subset of plants• Filter criteria
– Three levels of hurricane, earthquake, or tornado risks– Population of surrounding county– Age of reactor– Politics of state (Red or Blue) based on 2008 Presidential election
• Natural disaster risks are approximate based on various sources – Risk levels are designed to show general trends, not a detailed quantitative risk study
• Multiple criteria can be selected with either “and” or “or” logic– Shutdown plants that have both tornado and hurricane risk (few plants would pass filter)– Shutdown plants with either tornado or hurricane risk (many more plants would pass filter)
• National and regional metrics– Cost increase measured in $/MWh– Increase in emissions (NOx, SO2, and CO2) measured in millions of tons– Increase in coal consumption measured in millions of tons– Increase in additional natural gas consumption measured in millions of mmBTUs
• Regional analysis is done for one metric at a time and can be shown for amount of increase or percent change
• Number of replacement wind turbines estimated using 70 meter, 2.5 MW turbines operating at 25% capacity
5
Shutdown Based on Natural Risks
7
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
18%
Gen
erati
on L
ost
Add
ition
al C
ost
Add
ition
al S
O2
Add
ition
al N
Ox
Add
ition
al C
O2
Add
ition
al C
oal
Add
ition
al N
G
Perc
ent C
hang
e fr
om C
urre
nt
Tornado
Gen
erati
on L
ost
Add
ition
al C
ost
Add
ition
al S
O2
Add
ition
al N
Ox
Add
ition
al C
O2
Add
ition
al C
oal
Add
ition
al N
G
Hurricane
Gen
erati
on L
ost
Add
ition
al C
ost
Add
ition
al S
O2
Add
ition
al N
Ox
Add
ition
al C
O2
Add
ition
al C
oal
Add
ition
al N
G
EarthquakeLow, Moderate, or High Risk
Moderate or High Risk
Only High Risk
Impact on percentage change of national measures
Shutdown Based on Demographics and
Plant Characteristics
Percentage change of national measures
8
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
18%
Gen
erati
on L
ost
Add
ition
al C
ost
Add
ition
al S
O2
Add
ition
al N
Ox
Add
ition
al C
O2
Add
ition
al C
oal
Add
ition
al N
G
Perc
ent C
hang
e fr
om C
urre
nt
County Population
Over 100,000
Over 500,000
Over 1,000,000
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
Gen
erati
on L
ost
Add
ition
al C
ost
Add
ition
al S
O2
Add
ition
al N
Ox
Add
ition
al C
O2
Add
ition
al C
oal
Add
ition
al N
G
Perc
ent C
hang
e fr
om C
urre
nt
Plant Age
Over 20 Years Old
Over 30 Years Old
Over 40 Years Old
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
18%
20%
Gen
erati
on L
ost
Add
ition
al C
ost
Add
ition
al S
O2
Add
ition
al N
Ox
Add
ition
al C
O2
Add
ition
al C
oal
Add
ition
al N
G
Perc
ent C
hang
e fr
om C
urre
nt
State Politics
Red States
Blue States
Impact on US Generation and Costs
9
-
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
Low
, Mod
erat
e, o
r H
igh
Risk
Mod
erat
e or
Hig
h Ri
sk
Onl
y H
igh
Risk
Low
, Mod
erat
e, o
r H
igh
Mod
erat
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Hig
h
Onl
y H
igh
Low
, Mod
erat
e, o
r H
igh
Mod
erat
e or
Hig
h
Onl
y H
igh
Ove
r 100
,000
Ove
r 500
,000
Ove
r 1,0
00,0
00
Ove
r 20
Year
s O
ld
Ove
r 30
Year
s O
ld
Ove
r 40
Year
s O
ld
Red
Stat
es
Blue
Sta
tes
Tornado Hurricane Earthquake County Population Reactor Age Politics
TWh
Generation Lost
-
1
2
3
4
5
6
Low
, Mod
erat
e, o
r H
igh
Risk
Mod
erat
e or
Hig
h Ri
sk
Onl
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igh
Risk
Low
, Mod
erat
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Mod
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Hig
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Low
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Ove
r 100
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Ove
r 500
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Ove
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00
Ove
r 20
Year
s O
ld
Ove
r 30
Year
s O
ld
Ove
r 40
Year
s O
ld
Red
Stat
es
Blue
Sta
tes
Tornado Hurricane Earthquake County Population Reactor Age Politics
$/M
Wh
Additional Cost
Impact on US Emissions
10
-
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
Low
, Mod
erat
e, o
r H
igh
Risk
Mod
erat
e or
Hig
h Ri
sk
Onl
y H
igh
Risk
Low
, Mod
erat
e, o
r H
igh
Mod
erat
e or
Hig
h
Onl
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igh
Low
, Mod
erat
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r H
igh
Mod
erat
e or
Hig
h
Onl
y H
igh
Ove
r 100
,000
Ove
r 500
,000
Ove
r 1,0
00,0
00
Ove
r 20
Year
s O
ld
Ove
r 30
Year
s O
ld
Ove
r 40
Year
s O
ld
Red
Stat
es
Blue
Sta
tes
Tornado Hurricane Earthquake County Population Reactor Age Politics
Mill
ion
Tons
Additional SO2
-
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
Low
, Mod
erat
e, o
r H
igh
Risk
Mod
erat
e or
Hig
h Ri
sk
Onl
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igh
Risk
Low
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erat
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r H
igh
Mod
erat
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Hig
h
Onl
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Low
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erat
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r H
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erat
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Hig
h
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igh
Ove
r 100
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Ove
r 500
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Ove
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00,0
00
Ove
r 20
Year
s O
ld
Ove
r 30
Year
s O
ld
Ove
r 40
Year
s O
ld
Red
Stat
es
Blue
Sta
tes
Tornado Hurricane Earthquake County Population Reactor Age Politics
Mill
ion
Ton
Additional NOx
-
100.0
200.0
300.0
400.0
500.0
600.0
700.0
Low
, Mod
erat
e, o
r H
igh
Risk
Mod
erat
e or
Hig
h Ri
sk
Onl
y H
igh
Risk
Low
, Mod
erat
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r H
igh
Mod
erat
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Hig
h
Onl
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igh
Low
, Mod
erat
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r H
igh
Mod
erat
e or
Hig
h
Onl
y H
igh
Ove
r 100
,000
Ove
r 500
,000
Ove
r 1,0
00,0
00
Ove
r 20
Year
s O
ld
Ove
r 30
Year
s O
ld
Ove
r 40
Year
s O
ld
Red
Stat
es
Blue
Sta
tes
Tornado Hurricane Earthquake County Population Reactor Age Politics
Mill
ion
Tons
Additional CO2
Impact on US Demand for Fuel Sources
11
-
50
100
150
200
250
300
Low
, Mod
erat
e, o
r H
igh
Risk
Mod
erat
e or
Hig
h Ri
sk
Onl
y H
igh
Risk
Low
, Mod
erat
e, o
r H
igh
Mod
erat
e or
Hig
h
Onl
y H
igh
Low
, Mod
erat
e, o
r H
igh
Mod
erat
e or
Hig
h
Onl
y H
igh
Ove
r 100
,000
Ove
r 500
,000
Ove
r 1,0
00,0
00
Ove
r 20
Year
s O
ld
Ove
r 30
Year
s O
ld
Ove
r 40
Year
s O
ld
Red
Stat
es
Blue
Sta
tes
Tornado Hurricane Earthquake County Population Reactor Age Politics
Mill
ion
Tons
Additional Coal
-
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
Low
, Mod
erat
e, o
r H
igh
Risk
Mod
erat
e or
Hig
h Ri
sk
Onl
y H
igh
Risk
Low
, Mod
erat
e, o
r H
igh
Mod
erat
e or
Hig
h
Onl
y H
igh
Low
, Mod
erat
e, o
r H
igh
Mod
erat
e or
Hig
h
Onl
y H
igh
Ove
r 100
,000
Ove
r 500
,000
Ove
r 1,0
00,0
00
Ove
r 20
Year
s O
ld
Ove
r 30
Year
s O
ld
Ove
r 40
Year
s O
ld
Red
Stat
es
Blue
Sta
tes
Tornado Hurricane Earthquake County Population Reactor Age Politics
Mill
ions
mm
BTU
Additional NG
Shutting Down Individual Plants
• Regional impact of shutting down individual facilities– 104 reactors at 65 facilities– Shutdown all reactors at a single location
• Impact measures– Cost increase measured in $/MWh– Increase in emissions (NOx, SO2, and CO2) measured in
millions of tons– Increase in coal consumption measured in millions of tons
• Impacts determined at the NERC region level– National Electricity Reliability Council– 15 regions used (2 regions have no nuclear plants)
12
13
0.00
0.50
1.00
1.50
2.00
2.50
3.00
3.50
4.00
4.50
5.00
Palo
Ver
de -
AZM
illst
-CT
Indi
an P
oint
-N
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Can
yon
-CA
San
Ono
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ile P
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Brow
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Arka
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Sout
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TXCa
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MO
Sequ
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GA
Oco
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Com
anch
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TXCo
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FLW
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MN
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NY
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NC
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Additional Cost ($/MWh)
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2%
4%
6%
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14%
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Cata
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Additional Cost (% change)
Costs
0.00
0.01
0.01
0.02
0.02
0.03
0.03
0.04
0.04
0.05
0.05
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Additional NOx (Millions of Tons)
0%
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10%
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20%
25%
Indi
an P
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NY
Mill
ston
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erfo
rd -
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rmon
t Yan
kee
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r Ben
d -L
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cone
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taw
ba -
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cGui
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NC
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oint
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Brun
swic
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Ann
a -V
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Diab
lo C
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ar -
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-TX
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f Cre
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MN
Crys
tal R
iver
-FL
Coop
er -
NE
Duan
e Ar
nold
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Mon
ticel
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MN
Kew
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rt C
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ook
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NC
Beav
er V
alle
y -PA
Calv
ert C
liffs -
MD
Dres
den
-IL
Qua
d Ci
ties -
ILH
. B. R
obin
son
-SC
Perr
y -O
HFe
rmi -
MI
Hop
e Cr
eek
-NJ
Poin
t Bea
ch -
WI
Davi
s-Be
sse
-OH
Thre
e M
ile Is
land
-PA
Palis
ades
-M
IO
yste
r Cre
ek -
NJ
Additional NOx (% change)
NOx
14
0.00
0.02
0.04
0.06
0.08
0.10
0.12
0.14
0.16
Vogt
le -
GA
Edw
in I.
Hat
ch -
GA
Jose
ph M
. Far
ley -
ALO
cone
e -S
CBr
aidw
ood
-IL
Sale
m -
NJ
Byro
n -I
lSu
sque
hann
a -P
ALi
mer
ick -
PALa
Salle
Cou
nty
-IL
Peac
h Bo
ttom
-PA
Brow
ns F
erry
-AL
Dona
ld C
. Coo
k -M
IBe
aver
Val
ley -
PACa
lver
t Cliff
s -M
DDr
esde
n -I
LQ
uad
Citie
s -IL
Cata
wba
-SC
McG
uire
-N
CBr
unsw
ick -
NC
Sequ
oyah
-TN
Nor
th A
nna
-VA
Sout
h Te
xas -
TXCo
man
che
Peak
-TX
Perr
y -O
HSu
rry -
VAIn
dian
Poi
nt -
NY
Nin
e M
ile P
oint
-N
YFe
rmi -
MI
Hop
e Cr
eek
-NJ
Poin
t Bea
ch -
WI
Davi
s-Be
sse
-OH
Thre
e M
ile Is
land
-PA
Palis
ades
-M
IO
yste
r Cre
ek -
NJ
Arka
nsas
-AR
Virg
il C.
Sum
mer
-SC
Shea
ron
Har
ris -
NC
St. L
ucie
-FL
H. B
. Rob
inso
n -S
CTu
rkey
Poi
nt -
FLM
illst
one
-CT
Seab
rook
-N
HJa
mes
A. F
itzPa
tric
k -N
YW
atts B
ar -
TNW
olf C
reek
-KS
Gra
nd G
ulf -
MS
Wat
erfo
rd -
LACa
llaw
ay -
MO
Prai
rie Is
land
-M
NPi
lgrim
-M
ARi
ver B
end
-LA
Clin
ton
-IL
R.E.
Gin
na -
NY
Coop
er -
NE
Verm
ont Y
anke
e -V
TPa
lo V
erde
-AZ
Duan
e Ar
nold
-IA
Mon
ticel
lo -
MN
Kew
aune
e -W
IFo
rt C
alho
un -
NE
Crys
tal R
iver
-FL
Colu
mbi
a -W
ADi
ablo
Can
yon
-CA
San
Ono
fre
-CA
Additional SO2 (Millions of Tons)
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
Mill
ston
e -C
TSe
abro
ok -
NH
Arka
nsas
-AR
Indi
an P
oint
-N
YN
ine
Mile
Poi
nt -
NY
Pilg
rim -
MA
Gra
nd G
ulf -
MS
Wat
erfo
rd -
LAVe
rmon
t Yan
kee
-VT
Jam
es A
. Fitz
Patr
ick -
NY
Rive
r Ben
d -L
APa
lo V
erde
-AZ
Colu
mbi
a -W
ASo
uth
Texa
s -TX
Com
anch
e Pe
ak -
TXVo
gtle
-G
ABr
owns
Fer
ry -
ALR.
E. G
inna
-N
YSt
. Luc
ie -
FLEd
win
I. H
atch
-G
AJo
seph
M. F
arle
y -AL
Sequ
oyah
-TN
Oco
nee
-SC
Turk
ey P
oint
-FL
Cata
wba
-SC
McG
uire
-N
CBr
unsw
ick -
NC
Nor
th A
nna
-VA
Wol
f Cre
ek -
KSCa
llaw
ay -
MO
Surr
y -VA
Diab
lo C
anyo
n -C
ASa
n O
nofr
e -C
ACl
into
n -I
LVi
rgil
C. S
umm
er -
SCW
atts B
ar -
TNSh
earo
n H
arris
-N
CH
. B. R
obin
son
-SC
Prai
rie Is
land
-M
NCr
ysta
l Riv
er -
FLCo
oper
-N
EBr
aidw
ood
-IL
Sale
m -
NJ
Byro
n -I
lSu
sque
hann
a -P
ALi
mer
ick -
PALa
Salle
Cou
nty
-IL
Peac
h Bo
ttom
-PA
Dona
ld C
. Coo
k -M
IDu
ane
Arno
ld -
IAM
ontic
ello
-M
NKe
wau
nee
-WI
Beav
er V
alle
y -PA
Calv
ert C
liffs -
MD
Dres
den
-IL
Qua
d Ci
ties -
ILFo
rt C
alho
un -
NE
Perr
y -O
HFe
rmi -
MI
Hop
e Cr
eek
-NJ
Poin
t Bea
ch -
WI
Davi
s-Be
sse
-OH
Thre
e M
ile Is
land
-PA
Palis
ades
-M
IO
yste
r Cre
ek -
NJ
Additional SO2 (% change)
SO2
15
0.00
5.00
10.00
15.00
20.00
25.00
30.00
Brow
ns F
erry
-AL
Oco
nee
-SC
Sout
h Te
xas -
TXBr
aidw
ood
-IL
Com
anch
e Pe
ak -
TXSa
lem
-N
JPa
lo V
erde
-AZ
Byro
n -I
lSu
sque
hann
a -P
ACa
taw
ba -
SCLi
mer
ick -
PAVo
gtle
-G
ALa
Salle
Cou
nty
-IL
Peac
h Bo
ttom
-PA
McG
uire
-N
CSe
quoy
ah -
TNDo
nald
C. C
ook
-MI
Arka
nsas
-AR
Brun
swic
k -N
CN
orth
Ann
a -V
AEd
win
I. H
atch
-G
ABe
aver
Val
ley -
PACa
lver
t Cliff
s -M
DDr
esde
n -I
LQ
uad
Citie
s -IL
Jose
ph M
. Far
ley -
ALIn
dian
Poi
nt -
NY
Nin
e M
ile P
oint
-N
YSu
rry -
VASt
. Luc
ie -
FLM
illst
one
-CT
Gra
nd G
ulf -
MS
Perr
y -O
HTu
rkey
Poi
nt -
FLCa
llaw
ay -
MO
Wol
f Cre
ek -
KSW
ater
ford
-LA
Ferm
i -M
ICl
into
n -I
LDi
ablo
Can
yon
-CA
Hop
e Cr
eek
-NJ
Prai
rie Is
land
-M
NSe
abro
ok -
NH
San
Ono
fre
-CA
Poin
t Bea
ch -
WI
Watt
s Bar
-TN
Rive
r Ben
d -L
AVi
rgil
C. S
umm
er -
SCJa
mes
A. F
itzPa
tric
k -N
YSh
earo
n H
arris
-N
CDa
vis-
Bess
e -O
HCo
lum
bia
-WA
Thre
e M
ile Is
land
-PA
Palis
ades
-M
ICr
ysta
l Riv
er -
FLCo
oper
-N
EH
. B. R
obin
son
-SC
Pilg
rim -
MA
Verm
ont Y
anke
e -V
TO
yste
r Cre
ek -
NJ
Duan
e Ar
nold
-IA
Mon
ticel
lo -
MN
R.E.
Gin
na -
NY
Kew
aune
e -W
IFo
rt C
alho
un -
NE
Additional CO2 (Millions of Tons)
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
Mill
ston
e -C
TSe
abro
ok -
NH
Indi
an P
oint
-N
YN
ine
Mile
Poi
nt -
NY
Palo
Ver
de -
AZAr
kans
as -
ARPi
lgrim
-M
ACo
lum
bia
-WA
Brow
ns F
erry
-AL
Verm
ont Y
anke
e -V
TJa
mes
A. F
itzPa
tric
k -N
YO
cone
e -S
CDi
ablo
Can
yon
-CA
San
Ono
fre
-CA
Gra
nd G
ulf -
MS
Cata
wba
-SC
McG
uire
-N
CW
ater
ford
-LA
Vogt
le -
GA
Sequ
oyah
-TN
Brun
swic
k -N
CSt
. Luc
ie -
FLN
orth
Ann
a -V
ASo
uth
Texa
s -TX
Rive
r Ben
d -L
ACa
llaw
ay -
MO
Com
anch
e Pe
ak -
TXSu
rry -
VAEd
win
I. H
atch
-G
AJo
seph
M. F
arle
y -AL
Clin
ton
-IL
Turk
ey P
oint
-FL
R.E.
Gin
na -
NY
Wol
f Cre
ek -
KSPr
airie
Isla
nd -
MN
Watt
s Bar
-TN
Virg
il C.
Sum
mer
-SC
Crys
tal R
iver
-FL
Shea
ron
Har
ris -
NC
H. B
. Rob
inso
n -S
CCo
oper
-N
EBr
aidw
ood
-IL
Duan
e Ar
nold
-IA
Sale
m -
NJ
Byro
n -I
lM
ontic
ello
-M
NSu
sque
hann
a -P
ALi
mer
ick -
PALa
Salle
Cou
nty
-IL
Kew
aune
e -W
IPe
ach
Bott
om -
PADo
nald
C. C
ook
-MI
Fort
Cal
houn
-N
EBe
aver
Val
ley -
PACa
lver
t Cliff
s -M
DDr
esde
n -I
LQ
uad
Citie
s -IL
Perr
y -O
HFe
rmi -
MI
Hop
e Cr
eek
-NJ
Poin
t Bea
ch -
WI
Davi
s-Be
sse
-OH
Thre
e M
ile Is
land
-PA
Palis
ades
-M
IO
yste
r Cre
ek -
NJ
Additional CO2 (% change)
CO2
16
0.00
2.00
4.00
6.00
8.00
10.00
12.00
Brow
ns F
erry
-AL
Oco
nee
-SC
Brai
dwoo
d -I
LSa
lem
-N
JBy
ron
-Il
Susq
ueha
nna
-PA
Cata
wba
-SC
Lim
eric
k -PA
Vogt
le -
GA
LaSa
lle C
ount
y -I
LPe
ach
Bott
om -
PAM
cGui
re -
NC
Com
anch
e Pe
ak -
TXSo
uth
Texa
s -TX
Dona
ld C
. Coo
k -M
ISe
quoy
ah -
TNBr
unsw
ick -
NC
Arka
nsas
-AR
Nor
th A
nna
-VA
Edw
in I.
Hat
ch -
GA
Beav
er V
alle
y -PA
Calv
ert C
liffs -
MD
Dres
den
-IL
Qua
d Ci
ties -
ILJo
seph
M. F
arle
y -AL
Surr
y -VA
St. L
ucie
-FL
Palo
Ver
de -
AZIn
dian
Poi
nt -
NY
Nin
e M
ile P
oint
-N
YG
rand
Gul
f -M
SPe
rry
-OH
Turk
ey P
oint
-FL
Calla
way
-M
OW
olf C
reek
-KS
Wat
erfo
rd -
LAFe
rmi -
MI
Hop
e Cr
eek
-NJ
Clin
ton
-IL
Poin
t Bea
ch -
WI
Prai
rie Is
land
-M
NW
atts B
ar -
TNRi
ver B
end
-LA
Virg
il C.
Sum
mer
-SC
Jam
es A
. Fitz
Patr
ick -
NY
Mill
ston
e -C
TSe
abro
ok -
NH
Shea
ron
Har
ris -
NC
Davi
s-Be
sse
-OH
Thre
e M
ile Is
land
-PA
Palis
ades
-M
ICr
ysta
l Riv
er -
FLH
. B. R
obin
son
-SC
Coop
er -
NE
Pilg
rim -
MA
Colu
mbi
a -W
AO
yste
r Cre
ek -
NJ
Verm
ont Y
anke
e -V
TDu
ane
Arno
ld -
IAR.
E. G
inna
-N
YM
ontic
ello
-M
NKe
wau
nee
-WI
Fort
Cal
houn
-N
EDi
ablo
Can
yon
-CA
San
Ono
fre
-CA
Additional Coal (Millions of Tons)
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
50%
Indi
an P
oint
-N
YN
ine
Mile
Poi
nt -
NY
Mill
ston
e -C
TSe
abro
ok -
NH
Jam
es A
. Fitz
Patr
ick -
NY
Arka
nsas
-AR
Pilg
rim -
MA
Verm
ont Y
anke
e -V
TG
rand
Gul
f -M
SW
ater
ford
-LA
St. L
ucie
-FL
R.E.
Gin
na -
NY
Rive
r Ben
d -L
ATu
rkey
Poi
nt -
FLPa
lo V
erde
-AZ
Colu
mbi
a -W
ABr
owns
Fer
ry -
ALCo
man
che
Peak
-TX
Sout
h Te
xas -
TXO
cone
e -S
CCa
taw
ba -
SCM
cGui
re -
NC
Vogt
le -
GA
Brun
swic
k -N
CSe
quoy
ah -
TNCr
ysta
l Riv
er -
FLN
orth
Ann
a -V
ADi
ablo
Can
yon
-CA
San
Ono
fre
-CA
Calla
way
-M
OSu
rry -
VAEd
win
I. H
atch
-G
AJo
seph
M. F
arle
y -AL
Clin
ton
-IL
Wol
f Cre
ek -
KSPr
airie
Isla
nd -
MN
Virg
il C.
Sum
mer
-SC
Watt
s Bar
-TN
Shea
ron
Har
ris -
NC
H. B
. Rob
inso
n -S
CCo
oper
-N
EBr
aidw
ood
-IL
Sale
m -
NJ
Byro
n -I
lSu
sque
hann
a -P
ALi
mer
ick -
PALa
Salle
Cou
nty
-IL
Duan
e Ar
nold
-IA
Peac
h Bo
ttom
-PA
Mon
ticel
lo -
MN
Kew
aune
e -W
IDo
nald
C. C
ook
-MI
Fort
Cal
houn
-N
EBe
aver
Val
ley -
PACa
lver
t Cliff
s -M
DDr
esde
n -I
LQ
uad
Citie
s -IL
Perr
y -O
HFe
rmi -
MI
Hop
e Cr
eek
-NJ
Poin
t Bea
ch -
WI
Davi
s-Be
sse
-OH
Thre
e M
ile Is
land
-PA
Palis
ades
-M
IO
yste
r Cre
ek -
NJ
Additional Coal (% change)
Coal
17
0.00
20.00
40.00
60.00
80.00
100.00
120.00
140.00
Diab
lo C
anyo
n -C
ASa
n O
nofr
e -C
APa
lo V
erde
-AZ
Mill
ston
e -C
TIn
dian
Poi
nt -
NY
Nin
e M
ile P
oint
-N
YSo
uth
Texa
s -TX
Colu
mbi
a -W
ASe
abro
ok -
NH
Com
anch
e Pe
ak -
TXAr
kans
as -
ARBe
aver
Val
ley -
PABr
aidw
ood
-IL
Brow
ns F
erry
-AL
Brun
swic
k -N
CBy
ron
-Il
Calla
way
-M
OCa
lver
t Cliff
s -M
DCa
taw
ba -
SCCl
into
n -I
LCo
oper
-N
ECr
ysta
l Riv
er -
FLDa
vis-
Bess
e -O
HDo
nald
C. C
ook
-MI
Dres
den
-IL
Duan
e Ar
nold
-IA
Edw
in I.
Hat
ch -
GA
Ferm
i -M
IFo
rt C
alho
un -
NE
Gra
nd G
ulf -
MS
H. B
. Rob
inso
n -S
CH
ope
Cree
k -N
JJa
mes
A. F
itzPa
tric
k -N
YJo
seph
M. F
arle
y -AL
Kew
aune
e -W
ILa
Salle
Cou
nty
-IL
Lim
eric
k -PA
McG
uire
-N
CM
ontic
ello
-M
NN
orth
Ann
a -V
AO
cone
e -S
CO
yste
r Cre
ek -
NJ
Palis
ades
-M
IPe
ach
Bott
om -
PAPe
rry
-OH
Pilg
rim -
MA
Poin
t Bea
ch -
WI
Prai
rie Is
land
-M
NQ
uad
Citie
s -IL
R.E.
Gin
na -
NY
Rive
r Ben
d -L
ASa
lem
-N
JSe
quoy
ah -
TNSh
earo
n H
arris
-N
CSt
. Luc
ie -
FLSu
rry -
VASu
sque
hann
a -P
ATh
ree
Mile
Isla
nd -
PATu
rkey
Poi
nt -
FLVe
rmon
t Yan
kee
-VT
Virg
il C.
Sum
mer
-SC
Vogt
le -
GA
Wat
erfo
rd -
LAW
atts B
ar -
TNW
olf C
reek
-KS
Additional Natural Gas (Millions of mmBTU)
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
Mill
ston
e -C
TPa
lo V
erde
-AZ
Colu
mbi
a -W
AIn
dian
Poi
nt -
NY
Diab
lo C
anyo
n -C
ASa
n O
nofr
e -C
AN
ine
Mile
Poi
nt -
NY
Seab
rook
-N
HSo
uth
Texa
s -TX
Com
anch
e Pe
ak -
TXAr
kans
as -
ARBe
aver
Val
ley -
PABr
aidw
ood
-IL
Brow
ns F
erry
-AL
Brun
swic
k -N
CBy
ron
-Il
Calla
way
-M
OCa
lver
t Cliff
s -M
DCa
taw
ba -
SCCl
into
n -I
LCo
oper
-N
ECr
ysta
l Riv
er -
FLDa
vis-
Bess
e -O
HDo
nald
C. C
ook
-MI
Dres
den
-IL
Duan
e Ar
nold
-IA
Edw
in I.
Hat
ch -
GA
Ferm
i -M
IFo
rt C
alho
un -
NE
Gra
nd G
ulf -
MS
H. B
. Rob
inso
n -S
CH
ope
Cree
k -N
JJa
mes
A. F
itzPa
tric
k -N
YJo
seph
M. F
arle
y -AL
Kew
aune
e -W
ILa
Salle
Cou
nty
-IL
Lim
eric
k -PA
McG
uire
-N
CM
ontic
ello
-M
NN
orth
Ann
a -V
AO
cone
e -S
CO
yste
r Cre
ek -
NJ
Palis
ades
-M
IPe
ach
Bott
om -
PAPe
rry
-OH
Pilg
rim -
MA
Poin
t Bea
ch -
WI
Prai
rie Is
land
-M
NQ
uad
Citie
s -IL
R.E.
Gin
na -
NY
Rive
r Ben
d -L
ASa
lem
-N
JSe
quoy
ah -
TNSh
earo
n H
arris
-N
CSt
. Luc
ie -
FLSu
rry -
VASu
sque
hann
a -P
ATh
ree
Mile
Isla
nd -
PATu
rkey
Poi
nt -
FLVe
rmon
t Yan
kee
-VT
Virg
il C.
Sum
mer
-SC
Vogt
le -
GA
Wat
erfo
rd -
LAW
atts B
ar -
TNW
olf C
reek
-KS
Additional Natural Gas (% change)
Gas
18
Relationship between
Regional Impacts
Change in Additional Coal and Costs
19
Arkansas - AR
Braidwood - IL
Browns Ferry - AL
Brunswick - NC
Callaway - MO
Catawba - SC
Columbia - WA
Diablo Canyon - CA
Indian Point - NY
McGuire - NC
Millstone - CT
Nine Mile Point - NY
Oconee - SC
Oyster Creek - NJ
Palo Verde - AZ
Pilgrim - MA
San Onofre - CA
Seabrook - NH
South Texas - TX
Surry - VA
Vogtle - GA
$0.00
$0.50
$1.00
$1.50
$2.00
$2.50
$3.00
$3.50
$4.00
$4.50
$5.00
0 2 4 6 8 10 12
Add
ition
al C
ost
($/M
Wh)
Additional Coal (million tons)
20
Relationship between
Regional Impacts
Percentage Change in Generation Costs and CO2
Arkansas - AR
Browns Ferry - AL
Callaway - MO
Columbia - WA
Diablo Canyon - CAGrand Gulf - MS
Indian Point - NY
Joseph M. Farley - AL
Millstone - CT
Nine Mile Point - NY
Oconee - SC
Oyster Creek - NJ
Palo Verde - AZ
Pilgrim - MA
San Onofre - CA
Seabrook - NH
Sequoyah - TN
Vermont Yankee - VT
Vogtle - GA
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
0% 5% 10% 15% 20%
Perc
ent C
hang
e in
CO
2 Em
issi
ons
Percent Change in Regional Cost
Relationship between
Regional Impacts
Percentage Change in SO2 and NOx
21
Arkansas - AR
Browns Ferry - AL
Catawba - SC
Columbia - WA
Comanche Peak - TX
Grand Gulf - MS
Indian Point - NY
McGuire - NC
Millstone - CT
Nine Mile Point - NY
Oconee - SC
Oyster Creek - NJ
Palo Verde - AZPilgrim - MA
R.E. Ginna - NY
River Bend - LA
Seabrook - NH
Sequoyah - TN
South Texas - TX
Turkey Point - FL
Vermont Yankee - VT
Vogtle - GA
Waterford - LA
Wolf Creek - KS
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40%
Perc
ent C
hang
e in
NO
x Em
issi
ons
Percent Change in SO2
Conclusions
• Nuclear power plants are a major source of electricity generation in the US
• Shutdown of plants could lead to large increases in multiple outcome measures both at the regional and national scale
• Significant unintended negative consequences could result from nuclear plant shutdowns for well-intentioned risk-reduction reasons if careful long-term planning is not done
22
