Silver Inks and Pastes Markets—2012

7/31/2019 Silver Inks and Pastes Markets2012

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NanoMarkets, LC | PO Box 3840 | Glen Allen, VA 23058 | TEL: 804-360-2967| FAX: 804-360-7259

www.nanomarkets.net

Silver Inks and Pastes Markets2012

Nano-451

Published December 2011

NanoMarkets, LC

NanoMarkets, LC

PO Box 3840

Glen Allen, VA 23058

Tel: 804-360-2967

Web: www.nanomarkets.net


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Entire contents copyright NanoMarkets, LC. The information contained in this report is based

on the best information available to us, but accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed.

NanoMarkets, LC and its author(s) shall not stand liable for possible errors of fact or judgment.

The information in this report is for the exclusive use of representative purchasing companies

and may be used only by personnel at the purchasing site per sales agreement terms.

Reproduction in whole or in any part is prohibited, except with the express written permission

of NanoMarkets, LC.


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Table of Contents

Executive Summary ............................................................................................................... 1

E.1 The Future of Silver Inks and Pastes When Silver Prices are So High .............................. 1

E.2 Thick-Film Electronics: New Opportunities in this Old Market?...................................... 3

E.3 Will the Nanosilver Ink Revolution Ever Happen? .......................................................... 3

E.4 The Solar Industry: Do No More Subsidies Mean No More Silver? ................................. 5

E.5 Displays and Lighting: What the Decline of Plasma Displays and the Rise of Flexible

Displays and OLEDs Mean for Silver .................................................................................... 6

E.6 Winners and Losers in the Silver Inks and Pastes Market ............................................... 7

E.7 Will China Become a Major Player in Printed Silver? ..................................................... 9

E.8 Summary of Eight-Year Forecasts for Silver Inks and Pastes ......................................... 10

Chapter One: An Introduction to This Report ........................................................................ 12

1.1Ongoing Importance of Silver Inks and Pastes to Industrial Electronics Markets .......... 12

1.1.1 The Effect of the High Price of Silver on the Industrial Inks and Pastes Market ....................................... 12

1.1.2 Where is the Growth for Silver Inks? ......................................................................................................... 131.1.3 Prospects for Silver Inks and Pastes in Photovoltaic Panels ...................................................................... 15

1.1.4 Up-and-Coming MaterialsHybrids, Nanosilver and Silver Substitutes ..................................................... 16

1.2 Objectives and Scope of This Report ........................................................................... 18

1.3 Methodology .............................................................................................................. 18

1.4 Plan of This Report ..................................................................................................... 19

Chapter Two: Silver Inks and Paste Materials ....................................................................... 21

2.1 Developments Since Our Last Report .......................................................................... 21

2.1.1 The Impact of Continuing High (and Volatile) Silver Prices ........................................................................ 21

2.1.2 New Products and New Companies ........................................................................................................... 22

2.1.3 New Regulations on Nanosilver: Impact on Silver Inks and Pastes ............................................................ 23

2.2 The Growing Competitive Challenges to Silver from Other Materials ........................... 26

2.1.1 Copper Solutions ........................................................................................................................................ 27

2.2.2 Carbon-Based Inks and Pastes ................................................................................................................... 27


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2.2.3 Nanotubes, Conductive Polymers, and Other Emerging Threats .............................................................. 28

2.3 Is the Nanosilver Inks Revolution Postponed, or Will It Never Happen? ....................... 29

2.3.1 What the Nanosilver Ink Firms Say They are Doing Now ........................................................................... 29

2.3.2 Nanosilver Inks and the Future of Jetted Electronics ................................................................................ 31

2.4 Key Points from This Chapter ...................................................................................... 33

Chapter Three: Applications for Silver Inks and Pastes .......................................................... 36

3.1 Are There Emerging Niche Applications in Traditional Thick-Film Electronics? ............. 36

3.1.1 Printed Circuit Boards ................................................................................................................................ 37

3.1.2 Membrane Switches .................................................................................................................................. 37

3.1.3 Resistive Heaters ........................................................................................................................................ 38

3.1.4 Capacitors and Other Discrete Components ............................................................................................. 39

3.2 Solar Panels ................................................................................................................ 40

3.2.1 Reduced Government Subsidies for Solar: Should the Silver Inks and Pastes Firms Worry? ................... 41

3.2.2 What to Expect from the Crystalline Silicon PV Sector .............................................................................. 42

3.2.3 New Opportunities for Printed Silver in TFPV ............................................................................................ 46

3.2.4 Will New Forms of PVOPV and DSCNeed Printed Silver in the Future? ............................................. 49

3.3 Displays, Lighting, and Silver ....................................................................................... 50

3.3.1 Prospects for Silver Inks and Pastes in LCDs .............................................................................................. 50

3.3.2 Plasma Displays: A Big Silver User, But Until When? ................................................................................. 50

3.3.3 The Rise of OLED Displays and Lighting: Are There Opportunities for Silver Inks and Pastes?.................. 51

3.3.4 Electrophoretic Displays: How Might They Use Silver Inks and Pastes? .................................................... 52

3.4 RFIDs and Printed Silver .............................................................................................. 53

3.4.1 Is Printed Silver in RFIDs an Opportunity Whose Time has Passed? .......................................................... 53

3.4.2 Nanosilver in RFID Antennas ...................................................................................................................... 54

3.5 Sensors ...................................................................................................................... 55

3.5.1 Printed Silver and the Biosensors and Medical Diagnostics Markets ........................................................ 56

3.5.2 Silver in the Motion and Security Sensors Market ..................................................................................... 57

3.5.3 Sensors and Nanosilver Inks ...................................................................................................................... 58

3.6 Key Points from this Chapter ...................................................................................... 58

Chapter Four: Recent Developments in the Supplier Industry Structure for Silver Inks and

Pastes and their Implications ............................................................................................... 61

4.1 An Overview of the Supplier Base ............................................................................... 61

4.1.1 New and Notable Start-Ups? ..................................................................................................................... 61


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4.1.2 Chinas Goal to Become a High-Tech Powerhouse and the Impact on the Silver Inks and Pastes Markets

............................................................................................................................................................................ 62

4.2Analysis of the Latest Product and Marketing Strategies by Leading and Influential

Suppliers .......................................................................................................................... 64

4.2.1 Advanced Nano Products ........................................................................................................................... 66

4.2.2 Cima NanoTech .......................................................................................................................................... 69

4.3.3 Creative Materials ...................................................................................................................................... 70

4.3.4 Sun Chemical Group (U.S.)/DIC Global (Japan) .......................................................................................... 72

4.3.5 DuPont (U.S.).............................................................................................................................................. 74

4.3.6 Ferro Corporation (U.S.) ............................................................................................................................. 76

4.3.7 Harima Chemical (Japan) ........................................................................................................................... 80

4.3.8 Henkel Electronics (Germany).................................................................................................................... 81

4.3.9 Heraeus (Germany) .................................................................................................................................... 84

4.3.10 InkTec (Korea) .......................................................................................................................................... 864.3.11 Methode Electronics (U.S.) ...................................................................................................................... 87

Chapter Five: Eight-Year Forecasts for Silver Inks and Pastes ................................................ 90

5.1 Forecasting Methodology and Assumptions ................................................................ 90

5.1.1 Changes in Assumptions and Methodology Since the Last Report ............................................................ 92

5.1.2 Pricing of Silver Inks and Pastes ................................................................................................................. 93

5.2 Forecasts by Application ............................................................................................. 95

5.2.1 Photovoltaics ............................................................................................................................................. 95

5.2.2 Plasma Displays ........................................................................................................................................ 103

5.2.3 OLED Lighting ........................................................................................................................................... 106

5.2.3 RFIDs and Sensors .................................................................................................................................... 109

5.2.4 Traditional Thick-Film Applications .......................................................................................................... 116

5.3 Forecasts by Material ............................................................................................... 120

5.3.1 Silver Screen-Printing Pastes Conventional vs. Nanosilver ................................................................... 120

5.3.2 Silver Ink-Jet Inks in Electronics Conventional vs. Nanosilver ............................................................... 124

5.3.3 Silver Inks: Gravure, Flexographic, and Other ......................................................................................... 127

5.4 Summary of Silver Inks and Pastes Markets .............................................................. 130

5.5 Alternative Scenarios ................................................................................................ 134

Acronyms and Abbreviations Used In this Report ........................................................... 136

About the Author ........................................................................................................... 137


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List of Exhibits

Exhibit E-1 GRAND TOTALS - Summary Eight-Year Forecasts of Silver Printing Inks and Pastes ................................. 10

Exhibit 4-1 Overview of Product Portfolios of Selected Silver Ink and Paste Suppliers .............................................. 64

Exhibit 4-2 ANP Nanosilver Pastes ............................................................................................................................... 67

Exhibit 4-3 ANP Nanosilver Inkjet Inks ........................................................................................................................ 67

Exhibit 4-4 Creative Materials: Silver Ink Product Range ........................................................................................... 71

Exhibit 4-5 Selected Sun Chemical Silver Ink and Paste Products .............................................................................. 73

Exhibit 4-6 Selected Silver-Only Screen Printing Paste Products in the Ferro Portfolio .............................................. 77

Exhibit 4-7 Selected Silver And Nanosilver Printing Products From Harima ............................................................... 81

Exhibit 4-8 Henkel Electronics: Selected Acheson Silver Inks and Pastes .................................................................. 82Exhibit 4-9 Overview of Selected Silver Pastes from Heraeus for Thick Film Electronics Applications ....................... 84

Exhibit 4-10 Overview of Selected Silver Pastes for PV Applications from Heraeus ................................................... 85

Exhibit 4-11 InkTec Silver and Nanosilver Printing Inks and Pastes ............................................................................ 86

Exhibit 4-12 Selected Methode Silver Conductive Paste and Ink Products ................................................................. 88

Exhibit 5-1 Pricing of Silver and Silver Inks/Pastes 2012-2019 .................................................................................... 94

Exhibit 5-2 Eight-Year Forecasts of Silver Inks and Pastes in Crystalline Silicon (c-Si) PV ............................................ 96

Exhibit 5-3 Eight-Year Forecasts of Silver Inks and Pastes for TFPV (all types), DSC, and OPV.................................... 99

Exhibit 5-4 Eight-Year Forecasts of Silver Inks and Pastes in PV Applications by Printing Method ........................... 101

Exhibit 5-5 Eight-Year Forecasts of Silver Inks and Pastes in Plasma Display Panels (PDPs) ..................................... 104

Exhibit 5-6 Eight-Year Forecasts of Silver Inks and Pastes in OLED Lighting Applications ......................................... 107

Exhibit 5-7 Eight-Year Forecasts of Silver Inks and Pastes in RFIDs (Antennas and Chips) ........................................ 110

Exhibit 5-8 Eight Year Forecasts of Silver Inks and Pastes for Sensor Applications ................................................... 114

Exhibit 5-9 Eight-Year Forecasts of Silver Inks and Pastes for Traditional Thick-Film Applications ........................... 117

Exhibit 5-10 Eight-Year Forecasts of Conventional Silver and Nanosilver Screen Printing Pastes by Application .... 121

Exhibit 5-11 Eight-Year Forecasts of Conventional Silver and Nanosilver Inkjet Printing Inks by Application .......... 124

Exhibit 5-12 Eight-Year Forecasts of Conventional Silver and Nanosilver Flexographic, Gravure, and Other Printing

Inks by Application ........................................................................................................................................... 128

Exhibit 5-13 GRAND TOTALS - Summary of Eight-Year Forecasts of Silver Printing Inks and Pastes ......................... 131


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Executive Summary

E.1 The Future of Silver Inks and Pastes When Silver Prices are So High

NanoMarkets estimates that the total market for silver inks and pastes will grow to a value of

about $7.6 billion in 2012, but that it will contract over the forecast period to about $6.8 billion

by 2018.

Several factors are behind our prediction that the value of the silver inks and pastes market will

drop:

Perhaps the biggest challenge facing the silver inks and pastes industry is the persistent

environment of relentlessly high silver priceswell over $30 per troy ounce, with no

relief in sight. And given the increasing popularity of silver exchange traded funds (ETFs)combined with global economic unease, we do not expect that prices will come down

any time soon. In this environment, manufacturers of silver inks and pastes are faced

with a new paradigm for their cost basis, which means new business strategies are

needed.

The photovoltaics (PV) market, which saw a big increase in both global PV cell

production and in consumption of silver inks and pastes in the last couple of years, will

not grow at the same pace going forward. Instead, growth rates for PV, while still good,

seem certain to decline, in no small part due to a decrease in governments support for

PV installations. And to make matters worse, more and more PV is going to thin-film

which does not use nearly as much silver as the traditional crystalline silicon (c-Si) PV

that dominates the market today. Our forecasts suggest that as early as 2013, the value

of silver inks and pastes consumed by the PV sector will start to decline.

Plasma display panels, historically large consumers of silver printing pastes, are in long-

term decline in the face of serious competition from liquid crystal displays (LCDs).

While traditional silver usersmembrane switches, printed circuit boards, capacitors,

etc.will still be major silver users, it is also clear that they will be in need of finding

more profitable markets and products. This indicates a strong trend towards highervalue-added inks that target specific niches. These new inks will take some time to

develop, and will probably not immediately offset lost revenues from substitutes or soft

demand.

Customers across the applications spectrum will be looking very hard for ways to reduce

silver usageor replace it altogetherwherever they can, even if the opportunities to


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do so are limited. In this environment, silver ink and paste manufacturers will need to

work equally hard to maintain their market share, and they will need to offer new

products that convincingly mitigate rising silver costs. Historically, alternatives to silver

inks and pastes have always done well when silver prices spiked, but they have also

always disappeared when silver prices settled down again. But since todays high silver

prices look as if they are here to stay for a while, the situation may be different, and

manufacturers of alternatives may face a much more stable market for their products.

There is, however, some good news that might soften the negative impact of the high silver

prices. Silver is simply too conductive, too compatible with printing, and too entrenched in too

many applications for lower-cost/lower-performance alternatives to make a very large dent.

Specifically:

The high price of silver is a longstanding unpleasant fact for the electronics industry,

perhaps more so at todays prices, but still not catastrophic to sellers of silver materials.

Silvers unique conductivity characteristics make it very difficult to find alternatives, so

higher precious metal costs, in most cases, are simply passed along to the customers.

A number of interesting applications are just emerging that may turn out to be the next

big waves that the silver inks and pastes industry can ride the way it has ridden PV for

the last five years. They include, for example, flexible displays and lighting based on

organic light emitting diodes (OLED), both of which could turn out to eventually be large

consumers of printed silver circuitry. The sensors market is also very promising, both in

the (bio)medical sensors area and in everyday, ubiquitous consumer electronics

applications that seek to create a world of pervasive computing.

More good news is that despite ongoing worldwide economic sluggishness, increased

industrialization and urbanization of the developing world should increase the per

capita expenditures on the kinds of products in which silver inks and pastes are used.

And, of course, silver inks and pastes are now used in so many consumer products that

the increase in the world population is itself a spur to demand for silver inks and pastes.

In summary, high silver prices lead electronics manufacturersthe consumers of silver inks and

pastesto seek to create greater added value in their products, in the hope of gaining better

margins, or at least preserving their margins. This means that there is clearly room for

innovation in the silver ink and paste industry. New silver ink and paste formulations are

needed, and the needs of the electronics industry are producing a fertile field for silver ink and

paste product development.


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E.2 Thick-Film Electronics: New Opportunities in this Old Market?

Traditional thick-film electronics, which comprises a vast number of printed circuit board

applications as well as printed membrane switches and the like, has traditionally been one ofthe largest users of conventional silver inks and pastes (mostly pastes). We expect it absent a

serious worldwide financial crisisto remain a relatively stable high-volume market with a few

genuine opportunities for silver suppliers:

With so many mature processes in place and so much accumulated manufacturing

experience in the thick-film sector, it will be especially hard for firms to eliminate silver

inks and pastes altogether, unless very close substitutes can be found. And very close

substitutes are, as previously noted, hard to find. Furthermore, replacing printed silver

with some entirely different processsuch as etched copper or another subtractive

processwould be hard to achieve in many production lines. New production may

consider using alternatives, but existing production lines are unlikely to install

completely new equipment.

There may be some substitution of traditional thick film pastes with othersilver-based

products, like silver or nanosilver inks. This shift will be driven by the trend toward

miniaturization of consumer electronics and the need for finer lines and higher

resolution of conductive traces. Here again is an opportunity of sorts for the silver inks

and pastes suppliers. Innovative suppliers that can provide new inks or pastes that

address specific needs of customers, with either conventionally sized silver ornanosilver, can eke out gains in market share.

In fact, suppliers of silver inks and pastes cannot afford to ignore the thick-film sector, simply

because it is so large. Getting into (or more deeply into) this market with new products will not

be easy, though. It is, after all, highly mature. In this market, customers will continue to

balance the risks of switching to a new material against attempting to ride out the high silver

commodity prices while sticking with conventional silver pastes. For materials suppliers of all

kinds in this sector, the business development struggle for the next few years will center on

these switching economics issues and arguments that either turn customers to a new material

or calm their concerns about the high price of silver.

E.3 Will the Nanosilver Ink Revolution Ever Happen?

Will nanosilver ever become a major factor in the printed circuitry market? It has long been

touted as having a big future in (currently nonexistent) novel printed electronics applications,

but this has yet to be proven. The market pull for printed electronics has just never materialized


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in a meaningful way. Nanosilver ink makers have had a hard time of it as they have chased after

new markets that do not really exist yet.

Printable nanosilver makers claim other seemingly compelling advantages over conventional

silver inks and pastes, too. These include lower temperature processing and less usage of

precious silver. But nanosilver-based inks and pastes have been around for nearly a decade

now, and they have yet to take off in the conventional printed silver markets. What is behind

the lack of progress?

The notion that nanosilver can accomplish what conventional silver can but at much

lower loading, thereby reducing costs substantially, has come into serious question.

Savings from using less silver are still largely eaten up by the higher cost of the

nanosilver itself, let alone the changes in design and equipment that are needed to useit. This remains at least partially true despite high silver prices that should have led to a

bigger narrowing of the cost-in-use gap between conventional silver and nanosilver.

Economic uncertainty leads to risk aversion and causes device manufacturers to stick

with the conventional silver materials with which they are already comfortable.

The outlook for printed nanosilver is complicated by a murky regulatory environment

for silver specifically and nanomaterials in general

These factors have led NanoMarkets to reduce our expectations for nanosilver over the next

decade. We are feeling decidedly less optimistic about nanosilvers future than we were a

couple of years ago, and have reduced growth rates considerably. We are now estimating that

the printed nanosilver market will grow from its very small base today of about $85 million to

only about $145 million by 2019. We hope we are wrong, but we have no reason to be more

bullish about nanosilver at this point.

In the midst of this pessimism, there is at least some good news:

High silver commodity prices willat the marginencourage more customers to

evaluate moving to higher-performance nanosilver.High silver commodity prices havenarrowed the cost-in-use gap between nanosilver and silver in a meaningful way, even

though more can be done.

Today a large fraction of nanosilver ink costs is still tied up in processing, scale-up, and

production but these costs should decline as the material matures.


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There is growth in high-resolution printing inks, especially inkjet nanosilver inks, and

especially in sensors for emerging printed electronics, where traditional silver pastes are

generally not suitable. High-resolution printing is tailor-made for nanosilver, and these

new applications may be able to support nanosilvers higher price, at least for a few

more years.

In this new market, nanosilver inks (and nanosilver pastes) may finally have a chance to grow

beyond niche status, although probably not into a big business. After years of watching not

much happen in the nanosilver inks business NanoMarkets now believes that only modest

growth will come from this segment until some clear advantage of application emerges in the

marketplace.

E.4 The Solar Industry: Do No More Subsidies Mean No More Silver?The answer to this question is, of course, no. Printed silver in the PV market is here to stay,

but silver ink and paste firms shouldworry. The solar panel industry was for several years one

of the fastest growing sectors for printed silver, primarily because crystalline silicon (c-Si) solar

panels use large quantities of silver paste to create both electrodes and tabbing strips.

However, a lot is happening to discourage manufacturers of silver inks and pastes in this sector:

Silver pastes for back electrodes and for tabbing pastes in c-Si PV are seeing increased

competition from lower-cost substitutes, like aluminum for back electrodes/reflectors,

and non-silver soldering pastes in tabbing applications.

The newer thin-film PV technologiesespecially CdTe PVare taking an ever greater

share of the solar panel industry and are less likely to use silver for electrodes.

The badly depressed construction industry in much of the world has reduced the size of

many major addressable markets for solar panels, and although 2010 was a banner year

for PV production despite the global recession, growth rates are not expected to stay at

2010 levels. In addition, a lot of the PV production occurred in China, and some PV

industry observers believe that China is sitting on a large, unsold inventory of panels

that will take some time to work off.

And most importantly, governmental support in the form of consumer subsidies and loan

guarantees are under considerable challenge around the world, as governments look for ways

to rein in spending. The opportunities available to suppliers of materials to the PV sector are

thus highly dependent on policy consideration rather than economics. This could have very


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serious consequences for silver ink and paste firms that rely on PV for a large portion of their

revenue, and should be judged as a significant risk factor.

Although we expect that silver ink and paste suppliers will not have it especially easy in the near

future, there are some signs of hope:

The end of subsidies, although certainly chilling in the near-term, could be good news in

the longer term since it encourages market-oriented PV technologies to compete.

Silver inks and pastes used in crystalline silicon (c-Si) PV electrode fabrication make up

the largest share of the PV market. We expect this sector to retain a strong position in

the solar panel market, especially in front electrodes where there are few suitable

alternatives.

Silver ink manufacturers have developed silver ink products specifically for TFPV that

help to address TFPV-specific challenges. Next-generation PV technologies, not yet out

of the lab, may use more silver.

In summary, PV of all kinds is very sensitive to materials costs, especially in the current era of

rapidly declining solar panel costs and reduced government incentives. Therefore, innovations

to reduce the cost of the printed silver electrodes will be welcomed by the marketplace in the

next few years. These innovations might include not only ways of making silver more effective

as a conductorsuch as through the use of nanosilver inksbut also through ways of using less

silver in conventional inks and pastes.

E.5 Displays and Lighting: What the Decline of Plasma Displays and the Rise of FlexibleDisplays and OLEDs Mean for Silver

The market for silver inks and pastes in one important sectorplasma display panels (PDPs)is

almost certainly in a period of slow and steady decline. We do not anticipate that this market

will completely disappear, but it is facing serious challenges. The latest LCDs rival the

performance of PDPs in almost every characteristic important to the consumer, and this means

that PDPs are now competing primarily on price.

This situation robs the silver ink and paste industry of a major consumer of printed silver.

Suppliers of silver inks and pastes will need to find alternative markets in which to sell their

products or face declining volumes. The good news is that we think there are sizeable,

emerging opportunities that will offer a way out. The bad news, however, is that these

emerging applications are not yet mature and are, in fact, probably at least several years out.


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It is too early to say with much certainty what opportunities will ultimately succeed in this

segment, but some possibilities are as follows:

Flexible displays have been talked about for many years, but now seem to be on the verge of

commercialization (thanks largely to Samsung). Commercialization of flexible displays implies

the arrival of flexible backplanesa huge challenge. Such backplanes will require flexible

interconnects that could be provided with silver traces of some kind. Flexible displays are

unlikely to appear on the market until 2012 or 2013, and no one can be sure if consumers will

like them. But if (say) they were to attract an iPad-like following, they might represent a

significant opportunity for silver inks going forward.

Another and, we think, even more promising future opportunity is the OLED lighting market.

OLED lighting is poised for very rapid growth, especially after 2015, which is when it isanticipated that OLED lightings technical performance will be sufficient to meet market needs.

Currently, OLED lighting does not employ printed silver, but silver ink and paste suppliers

should make the case nowto OLED panel manufacturers that printed silver grids can enable the

market to meet its full potential:

Printed silver could be used beneficially in bus bars or grids to prevent visible brightness

gradients and resistive heat losses caused by significant voltage drops across long spans

of (less) conductive transparent electrodes, and

Printed silver could be useful for interconnects for concatenated OLED lighting panels.

If OLED lighting ultimately attracts consumer attention, it could be another mass-market silver

ink and paste consumer. A good sign is that OLED lighting is attracting the attention of an

impressive list of electronics and lighting companies, some of whom are building pilot plants to

build OLED lighting panels.

E.6 Winners and Losers in the Silver Inks and Pastes Market

The winners in the silver inks and pastes market over the next eight years will be defined by

those companies that understand the new environment and figure out how to reorganize their

product lines to adjust to the new market realities. The losers, of course, will be those firms

that fail to understand the new paradigm. Some firms to watch are as follows:

Heraeus has emerged in the past two years as a major force in the PV pastes business

and claims to supply most of the top PV panel makers. The firm appears to have

entered the market at exactly the right time, when PV was booming, and it managed to

quickly develop and commercialize PV pastes that reduced silver usage and lowered


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manufacturing costs. But how long can this last? As noted, the PV sector is in for a

bumpy road in the next several years, and it is not clear to us how Heraeus will handle it,

having few other outlets for its silver pastes. In all likelihood, the firm will do better than

many other PV paste companies; its recent market successes signal to us that it will

remain a preferred supplier and should be able to hold onto a significant market share.

But there is caveat: the story at Heraeus may be quite different if DuPonts legal

challenge to Heraeus IP is successful.

Henkel is another interesting firm. It is already a giant in the silver inks and pastes

business, and interestingly, it has not focused heavily on the PV sector for new

developments. This move may have been less strategy than necessityHenkel is more

adept at developing lower temperature curing inks and pastes than the high-fire

products used by (most of) the PV industrybut it may turn out to be a benefit. If the

PV sector falters even more than expected, Henkels volumes should be largely

unaffected. And it already well entrenched in the thick film and other silver ink/paste

markets.

The prospects at DuPont are mixed. On one hand, DuPonts PDP paste business is going

to decline. In addition, it is facing serious competition in inks and pastes for the PV

sector from Heraeus and the large number of Chinese silver paste firms. Fortunately for

DuPont, there is much else that the company has going for it that will soften the impact

of this dual blow. It has a large legacy business in high-fire silver inks for electronics inwhich there are few suitable alternatives. It is also in a good position to hold onto

market share wherever it can by relying on its status as a major global materials supplier

with production, marketing, and logistics infrastructure throughout the world.

Unless we are wrong about the future of the PV market, far too many firms in China are

focused on inks and pastes specifically for PV. If the market share of c-Si PV loses

ground, as is expected over the next decade, to alternative PV technologies that use

much less silver, then what will these firms do? We do not think all of them will survive.

There are also too many nanosilver firms to support the size of the nanosilver inks andpastes market. Larger materials firms that have nanosilver programs but that do not rely

on nanosilver for revenue, such as Bayer MaterialScience and Methode, can simply shut

down their programs. But smaller technology start-ups, whose business is significantly

focused on printable nanosilver, like NanoMas, will face real problems. The market has

simply not developed as expected, and there is only so long one can survive with

balance sheets in the red. Unless some of the smaller firms can convincingly shift


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toward other technologies, as Cima Nanotech is doing with transparent conductors, for

example, we do not think all the nanosilver ink firms can survive the next decade. One

potential exception is PChem Associates, which is betting on high-speed nanosilver

printing inks (not ink-jet) and which are claimed to deliver cost-in-use savings of 75

percent compared to conventional silver inks.

E.7 Will China Become a Major Player in Printed Silver?

As spelled out in its latest Five-Year Plan, China is making a concerted effort to shift its

economy from one based on exports to one driven by domestic demand from the Chinese

middle class. China recognizes that it is simply not possible to grow its realper capita income at

recent historic rates using its current low-cost manufacturing strategy; instead, it now needs to

internally capture more of the added value of the products it produces. Part of the Chinese

strategy involves investment in areas directly related to printed silver: alternative energy (PV),

displays, and the required enabling materials for these application areas.

Currently, the Chinese ink/paste suppliers have limited activities outside of the region, but we

do not expect the situation to remain static:

Small Chinese firms have been producing generic silver pastes and inks for quite a long

time with the apparent goal of selling these materials at low prices to the R&D

community in relatively small quantities for applications that do not need high

performances.

Going forward, any success the country has in spurring domestic demand only

accelerates the potential for growth in silver inks and pastes.

Under the new policy, we expect that Chinese firms will ramp up to a point where they

are competitive with American, Japanese, Korean and European materials firms. This

implies both increasing quality and performance of products and developing new

advanced materials.

While increased competition from Chinese suppliers in the near term may be troubling to

Western suppliers of printable silver materials, in the long run, we believe the shift described

above will be beneficial to the market overall. A more successful Chinaand especially a larger,

wealthier customer base for the electronics products produced in high-tech manufacturing

will increase the size of the addressable market for silver inks and paste suppliers worldwide

andabsent import controlsshould help to grow the market for inks and paste suppliers

around the world.


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Global suppliers with the right materials and right supply partnerships in China can prosper if

Chinas strategy is successful. Specifically, the big silver ink and paste firms that already have a

strong presence in AsiaDuPont, Henkel, Heraeus, and so forthwill have an easier time

capitalizing on increased domestic demand in China than smaller firms.

E.8 Summary of Eight-Year Forecasts for Silver Inks and Pastes

A summary of NanoMarkets eight-year forecasts for silver inks and pastes is shown in Exhibit E-

1.

Exhibit E-1 GRAND TOTALS - Summary Eight-Year Forecasts of Silver Printing Inks and Pastes($ Millions)

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

By Application:Photovoltaics

PDPsOLED LightingRFIDsSensorsTraditional Thick FilmGRAND TOTAL

By Ink Composition:Conventional SilverInks and PastesNanosilver Inks andPastesGRAND TOTAL

By Printing Method:Screen PastesInk-Jet InksFlexo/Gravure/OtherInksGRAND TOTAL

NanoMarkets 2011

Note: Rounding may cause minor discrepancies in last digit of totals.


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To obtain a full copy of this report please contact NanoMarkets at [email protected]

via telephone at (804) 938-0030 or visit us atwww.nanomarkets.net.

0.0

1000.0

2000.0

3000.0

4000.0

5000.0

6000.0

7000.0

8000.09000.0

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Year

Summary of Eight-Year Forecasts of Silver Inks and Pastes by

Application ($ Millions)

Traditional Thick Film

Sensors

RFIDs

OLED Lighting

PDPs

Photovoltaics

NanoMarkets, LC

6200.0

6400.0

6600.0

6800.0

7000.0

7200.0

7400.0

7600.0

7800.0

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Year

Total Value of Silver Inks and Pastes Market ($ Millions)

NanoMarkets, LC
mailto:[email protected]://www.nanomarkets.net/http://www.nanomarkets.net/http://www.nanomarkets.net/http://www.nanomarkets.net/mailto:[email protected]


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Chapter One: An Introduction to This Report

1.1Ongoing Importance of Silver Inks and Pastes to Industrial Electronics Markets

1.1.1 The Effect of the High Price of Silver on the Industrial Inks andPastes Market

Silver has always been an expensive metal and probably always will be. But the most obvious

change in the silver inks/pastes market since our last report is the seemingly persistenthigh

price of silver, with no relief in sight. Silver commodity prices have been pushed upward

because of the uncertain global economic environment in which investors have shifted

increasingly toward hard assets. Silver ETFs have accumulated large stores of silver in order to

handle the increased demand for precious metal investments.

At the time of writing, silver prices have somewhat stabilized, but they have done so at a level

nearly twice that of just two years ago (in inflation-adjusted dollars). And there are no good

reasons that the situation will change very much over the next five years or so.

None of this is especially good news for the silver inks and pastes business, since the price of

these materials is largely determined by the price of silver and these materials are often sold

into moderately price sensitive environments. Despite these negatives, however, there are

some reasons for executives in the silver inks and pastes business not to feel too depressed:

The high price of silver is now a fact of life for the electronics industry. On the one hand,its unique conductivity characteristics ensure that silver is hard to dispense with in many

applications.

Where silver inks and pastes can be dispensed with their high price will enable supplier

firms to develop silver inks and pastes substitutes with an assurance that the market for

them will persist. In the past, silver ink/paste substitutes have appeared and then

disappeared when the price of silver fell again. Given the current economic climate, it

seems that the manufacturers of silver ink/paste substitutes are in for the long haul this

time around.

Counteracting ongoing worldwide economic sluggishness will be increased

industrialization and urbanization of the developing world; which is likely to increase the

per capita expenditures on the kinds of products in which silver inks and pastes are

used. And, of course, silver inks and pastes are now used in so many consumer products

that the increase in the world population is itself a spur to demand for silver inks and

pastes.


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There are a number of interesting applications for silver inks and pastes that are just

emerging. They include, for example, OLED lighting, and sensors. NanoMarkets

believes that there are real opportunities here, but we also caution that some

traditional applications that use quite a lot of silver paste at the present time are likely

to experience at best modest growth, and this could hurt the silver inks and pastes

business in the next few years. Examples here are plasma TVs (in long-term decline) and

crystalline silicon solar panels (a market likely to see a decline in government support).

1.1.2 Where is the Growth for Silver Inks?

Despite high silver prices (indeed, partially because of them), NanoMarkets expects that

revenues from silver inks and pastes will remain substantial in a number of applications.

Traditional thick-film electronics: Thick-film electronics, which comprises a vast number ofprinted circuit board applications as well as printed membrane switches and the like, has

traditionally been the largest user of conventional silver inks and pastes (mostly pastes), and we

expect itabsent a serious worldwide financial crisisto remain a relatively stable high-volume

market with even a few genuine opportunities appearing from time to time:

We think that with so many mature processes in place and so much accumulated

manufacturing experience in the thick-film sector, it is going to be very hard for firms to

get rid of silver pastes and inks in a wholesale manner, unless very close substitutes can

be found. As to replacing printed silver with some entirely different process, this would

also be hard to achieve. Printed silver provides not only higher resolution and fewer

process steps than subtractive processes such as etched copper, but also the option of

applying conductive traces at different times.

Substitution of traditional thick film pastes with silver inks, including potentially

nanosilver inks, in this segment will be driven by the trend toward miniaturization of

consumer electronics and the need for finer lines and higher resolution of conductive

traces. Here, again, is an opportunity of sorts for the silver inks and pastes business.

Even without high volume growthand with some negative growth in certain sub-sectors like membrane switchesincreases in silver prices will drive substantial revenue

growth. An open question for suppliers of inks and pastes is how they are going to

capture some of the new value encapsulated in silver metal.

Suppliers of silver inks and pastes (except maybe, boutique suppliers of nanosilver products)

cannot afford to ignore the thick-film sector, simply because it is so large; traditional thick-film


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paste sales will still make up nearly half of the total silver inks and pastes market for the

foreseeable and thus present significant opportunities. Still, we think that silver paste suppliers

should not expect too much from this sector. It is, after all, highly mature. In this market,

customers for inks and pastes will continue to balance the risks of switching to a new material

against attempting to ride out the high silver commodity prices while sticking with conventional

silver pastes. For materials suppliers of all kinds in this sector, the business development

struggle for the next few years is going to center around these switching economics issues and

arguments that either turn customers to a new material or calm their concerns about the high

price of silver.

Displays, OLEDs, and solid-state lighting (SSL): Silver inks and pastes are used to create

electrodes and interconnects in a broad array of displays and lighting products:

Here the good news for the silver inks and pastes business is that new types of

technologies are apparently coming to market quite quickly in this sector and could

emerge as sizeable markets for silver inks and pastes over the next five years.

The bad news is that one sectorplasma displays (PDPs)that has been a large user of

silver in the past seems to be in slow and steady decline. We think it will be hard for the

newer applications that fall into this segment to offset the declining demand from PDPs

for quite a few years; these newer applications arent mature enough yet.

It is too early to say with much certainty what opportunities will appear in this segment. Butthere are a couple of such opportunities that seem to be looming:

Flexible displays have been talked about for many years, but now seem to be at the cusp

of commercialization (thanks largely to Samsung). This implies the arrival of flexible

backplanes; a huge challenge. Such backplanes would seem to require flexible

interconnects that could be provided with silver traces of some kind. Flexible displays

are unlikely to appear on the market until 2012 and nobody can be really sure if

consumers will like them. But if (say) they were to attract an iPad-like following they

might represent a significant opportunity for silver inks going forward.

The OLED lighting market seems poised for very rapid growth, especially after 2015

when it is anticipated that the technical performance of this kind of lighting will be

sufficient to meet market needs. In addition, the demise of the historically dominant

incandescent bulb is creating a market opening in the general lighting market, which

may partially filled by OLED lighting panels. OLED lighting may employ printed silver,


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mainly in the form of (1) bus bars, to prevent visible brightness gradients due to the

significant voltage drops and resistive heat losses across long spans of (less) conductive

transparent electrodes and (2) interconnects for concatenated OLED lighting panels. If

OLED lighting ultimately attracts consumer attention this could be another mass market

silver ink user. A good sign is that OLED lighting is attracting the attention of an

impressive list of electronics and lighting companies, some of whom are constructing

pilot plants to build OLED lighting panels.

Silver inks: The long-term trajectory of such products and markets is still very uncertain, but it

is quite possible, as we have already noted, that they will end up using plenty of silver. In

particular, we see the thin silver traces that OLED lighting and flexible displays might need as an

opportunity for nanosilver inks. One reason for this is that historically nanosilver inks were

developed specifically with these applications in mind. (This was the area that Cabot activelypursued when this company heavily marketed its silver inks for printed electronics a few years

back.) It seems to be the applications not the inks that failed to emerge.

If some of the applications listed and hinted at above, take off, then a variety of opportunities

open up for ink makers, including inks that are designed to work specifically with inkjet, gravure,

flexographic, etc. Unfortunately, this is not exactly news. There are quite a few firms that have

emerged in the past five to seven years with ambitions to supply novel silver inks fine-tuned to

emerging applications. For the most part they have not found the market very encouraging.

Some of these firms have already gone out of business and OLED lighting, flexible displays and

the like might turn out to be their last best opportunity.

1.1.3 Prospects for Silver Inks and Pastes in Photovoltaic Panels

The solar panel industry was, for several years, one of the fastest growing sectors for printed

silver; primarily because crystalline silicon solar panels use silver paste to create the front

electrode. However, in the past few years a lot has happened to discourage manufacturers of

silver inks and pastes in this sector:

The newer thin-film PV technologies that are taking an ever greater share of the solar

panel industry are less likely to use silver for electrodes;

The badly depressed construction industry in much of the world has reduced many

major addressable markets for solar panels generally;

Governmental support in the form of consumer subsidies and loan guarantees is under

considerable challenge around the world as governments look for areas to cut back on.


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This could have very serious consequences for firms selling materials into the PV sector.

When Spain ended PV subsidies, the market in Spain lost 90 percent of its value.

All of this suggests that the opportunities available for suppliers of silver and silver products into

the PV space are highly dependent on policy consideration, which should be judged a significant

risk factor in view of the current worldwide financial problems. It also suggests that silver inks

and pastes firms are not going to have it especially easy in the near future. There are some

signs of hope though:

The end of subsidies could be good news in the long run since it encourages market

oriented PV technologies (although the near-term effects are certainly chilling).

Silver inks and pastes used in crystalline silicon (c-Si) PV electrode fabrication make up

the largest share of the PV market. We expect this sector to retain a strong position in

the solar panel market, but expect growth rates in this sector to cool significantly.

Silver ink manufacturers have developed silver ink products specifically for TFPV that

help to address TFPV-specific challenges. It is also possible that next-generation PV

technologies, not out the lab, may use silver.

PV of all kinds is very sensitive to materials costs, especially in the current era of collapsing solar

panel prices. Therefore innovations to reduce the cost of the printed silver electrodes are going

to be welcomed by the marketplace in the next few years. These innovations might include not

only ways of making silver more effective as a conductorsuch as through the use of

nanosilver inksbut also through ways of using less silver in conventional inks and pastes.

1.1.4 Up-and-Coming MaterialsHybrids, Nanosilver and Silver Substitutes

Inexpensive alternatives: Hybrid inks and pastescombining silver and carbon or silver and

copper, for instancecan offer modest savings when a high level of performance is not critical.

In the paste sector materials of this kind have been available for decades.

This kind of material generally disappears from the market as soon as silver prices start to come

down. But, as we explained earlier, this is precisely what seems unlikely to happen in the nearterm. As a result, as we also mentioned earlier, it seems likely that there may be more of an

opportunity for these inexpensive alternatives than in the past.

Printed nanosilver: A more strategic alternative to conventional silver inks and pastes is

nanosilver. As we have mentioned, this may have a future in printed electronics, but this has


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yet to be proven and nanosilver ink makers have had a hard time of it as they have chased after

new markets that dont really exist yet.

Printed nanosilver makers claim other advantages over more conventional materials, too.

These include lower temperature processing and less usage/wastage of precious silver. These

advantages would seem highly compelling. But nanosilver-based inks and pastes have been

around for nearly a decade now, and they have yet to take off in the market. What is behind

the lack of progress?

That nanosilver can accomplish what conventional silver can but at much lower loading,

thereby reducing costs substantiallyhas come into serious question. Savings from using

less silver are still largely eaten up by the higher cost of the nanosilver itself, let alone

the changes in design and equipment that are needed to use it. This remains at leastpartially true despite the recent spike in silver prices that should have led to a bigger

narrowing of the cost-in-use gap between conventional silver and nanosilver.

Economic uncertainty leads to risk aversion and causes device manufacturers to stick

with the conventional silver materials with which they are already comfortable.

The outlook for printed nanosilver is complicated by a murky regulatory environment

for silver specifically and nanomaterials.

There is some good news:

High silver commodity prices over $30 per troy ounce are a relatively recent

phenomenon that willat the marginencourage more customers to switch to higher-

performance nanosilver. High silver commodity prices have narrowed the cost-in-use

gap between nanosilver and silver in a meaningful way, even though more can be done.

Today, a large fraction of nanosilver ink costs is still tied up in processing, scale-up, and

production costs, and these costs should decline further as the material matures.

There is growth in high-resolution printing inks, especially in emerging printedelectronics, where traditional silver pastes are generally not suitable. High resolution

printing is tailor-made for nanosilver, and these new applications may be able to

support nanosilvers higher price, at least for a few more years.

In this new market, nanosilver inks (and nanosilver pastes) may finally have a chance to grow

beyond niche status, although this is a long way from saying they are going to be big business.


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After years of watching not much happen in the nanosilver inks business NanoMarkets now

believes that only modest growth will come from this segment until some clear advantage of

application emerges in the marketplace. For the time being, nanosilver firms have done just

about all they can do in terms of market development; they are going to have to wait until the

silver ink users catch up!

1.2 Objectives and Scope of This Report

The primary objective of this report is to identify and quantify the opportunities for silver inks

and pastes. NanoMarkets has been covering the electronics markets for silver for over five

years, and is widely regarded as the premier supplier of industry information in this segment.

With this in mind, the goal of this report is to adjust and expand our previous forecasts and

strategic analysis with the constantly changing markets for these materials in mind.

In addition, as part of this analysis, we critically examine the strategies of the key players in the

silver inks/pastes markets, and identify what we believe to be the trends indicating likely

success (or not) at different firms. Finally, as always in NanoMarkets reports, we include eight-

year market forecasts for silver inks and pastes by application and by material.

The scope of the materials covered in this report is silver and nanosilver inks and pastes. We

have excluded from coverage here transparent nanosilver inks (covered in other NanoMarkets

reports and involving different players and markets than the materials covered here); printed

antimicrobial silver (better covered as part of a broader consideration of antimicrobial silver),

and silver-based conductive adhesives. The applications covered are the ones in which printed

silver of various kinds is a major factor including the traditional thick-film electronics

applications, solar panels, and next-generation printed electronics (especially displays).

This report is international in scope. The forecasts are worldwide forecasts and we have not

been geographically selective in the firms that we have covered in the report or interviewed in

order to collect information. Where there are geographical factors at workas is the case in

the display sectorwe discuss this more fully in the report.

1.3 MethodologyThe methodology for this report is explained in more detail in Chapter Five of this report which

deals with forecasts. Here we note that in general the approach we take, broadly speaking, is

to apply economic analysis to the information that NanoMarkets continues to collect on the

silver inks and pastes market and other related sectors.


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The information for this work is derived from a variety of sources, but principally comes from

primary sources, including NanoMarkets' ongoing interview program of entrepreneurs,

business development and marketing managers, and technologists involved with silver

materials and emerging electronics of all kinds. We also drew on the technical literature,

relevant company Web sites, trade journals, government resources, and various collateral items

from trade shows and conferences.

Some of the applications-related market information in this report comes from our most recent

reports on the covered applications areas. Reports from which some data have been shared

include: Nanosilver Markets 2011, Silver Powders and Flakes 2011 and Silver in

Photovoltaics 2010. In addition, some of the historical information on silver and silver

inks/pastes has been carried over from the last version of this report, "Silver Inks and Pastes

2011," from December 2010. Where information has been used in an earlier report, it has beenreconsidered in light of current developments and updated accordingly.

The forecasting approach used in this report is to identify and quantify the underlying

applications markets, the materials needs that are or can be served by silver inks/pastes, and

the technological and market pressures that affect ink/paste usage in those markets. The stated

plans of the key firms are, of course, of special interest, although NanoMarkets critically

considers these claims in light of all available data.

1.4 Plan of This Report

In Chapter Two, we examine the silver inks and pastes that are used in the electronics industry;

the strategies to reduce cost, increase performance, and customize materials to specific uses;

and the materials that are used or likely to emerge as partial substitutes for silver in inks and

pastes.

In Chapter Three, we discuss the applications and markets for silver inks and pastes. We discuss

printed silver in the traditional thick-film applications and identify opportunities that may still

exist for suppliers to make money is this mature market. We also examine the other

applications for silver inks and pastes in displays, solid-state lighting, photovoltaics, RFIDs and

security printing, and sensors. We identify trends in these sub-sectors that will affect silver inkand paste suppliers abilities to sell into them, and we identify key areas that show promise for

making money.

In Chapter Four we discuss the profiles and strategies of the major suppliers of silver inks and

pastes of various types, and Chapter Five contains our eight-year forecasts of silver inks and


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pastes used in the electronics industry. These forecasts are presented by market segment and

by type of silver ink/paste wherever possible.

Documents

Silver Inks and Pastes Markets—2012