Social class and men’s childbearingMiten sosiaaliluokka vaikuttaa miesten perheellistymiseen?

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Launching seminar ’Precarious family formation’

Väestöliitto, Helsinki 19th April 2012

Lassi Lainiala and Anneli MiettinenVäestöliitto, Väestöntutkimuslaitos

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19601964

19681972

19761980

19841988

19921996

20002004

1

1,2

1,4

1,6

1,8

2

2,2

2,4

2,6

2,8

3

3,2

3,4

Western Europe

Southern Europe

USSR/Russia+others

Middle Europe

Transition countries

Nordic countries

Council of Europe 2006; Eurostat 2005,2006

19601964

19681972

19761980

19841988

19921996

20002004

20

21

22

23

24

25

26

27

28

29

30

31

32

Fertility in Europe: Decreasing TFR and postponement of parenthood

Age at first birthTFR

West E: Be, Irl, Fr, Lu, Net, UK Middle E: Au, Ge, SwiSouth-E: Cy, Gr, It, Mt, Por, Sp Transition: BH, Bul, Cr, CzR, Est, Hun, La,Russia/USSR: Ar, Az, Blr, Ge, Mo, Li, Mc, Po, Ro, Sk, Sl, SM RFed, Ukr Nordic De, Fin, Icl, No, Swe

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Fertility in Europe

Increasing convergence?

• Between countries?

• Between socioeconomic groups?

Social status and fertility

• General trend: a shift from a positive to a negative or neutral status-fertility relation

• Industrialized countries forerunners

• For example: Educational differences persist

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SES and fertility

Does the overall decline in fertilty and ’two-child norm’ mean that socioeconomic factors explaining childbearing behaviour have become less important?

Are there gender differences?

Higher status men/women: more or fewer children?

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Status and fertility: the highest relative to the lowest status groups

1950-74 1990-2006

Income, wealth Europe, North America

-13.9 6.7

Asia, Africa, Middle East, Latin America

14.2 -14.9

Occupation/Social class

Europe, North America

-6.0 -7.9

Asia, Africa, Middle East, Latin America

0.2 -25.9

Education Europe, North America

-21.8 -17.8

Asia, Africa, Middle East, Latin America

-25.2 -33.3

Skirbekk 2008

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Fertility in the Nordic countriesHave socioeconomic differences in fertility disappeared?

Educational differences in age at first birth, yrs (high vs. low)

1945-49 cohort

1965-69 cohort

Sweden 4.5 yrs 5.2 yrs

Norway 5.4 yrs 7.1 yrs

Denmark 4.7 yrs 4.9 yrs

Finland 4.8 yrs 4.8 yrs

Andersson et al. 2008

-> NO: SES differences in fertility behaviour still notable, or even increasing…

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Fertility in the Nordic countriesHave socioeconomic differences in fertility disappeared?

Childlessness at age 40, %

Educational level 1945-49 cohort 1955-59 cohort

Low 7.8 8.6

Norway Middle 8.3 11.0

High 13.1 14.9

Diff. highest vs lowest +5.3 pp +6.3 pp

Low 16.9 19.2

Finland Middle 15.4 16.7

High 18.5 17.0

Diff. highest vs lowest +3.1 pp +2.5 pp

Andersson et al. 2008

-> …AND YES: differences disappearing/changing

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SES-differences in fertility in a highly developed country: case FINLAND

Mainly the relationship between educational level and fertility (intentions, timing, completed fertility)

Other SES-indicators?

In most cases focus on women: very little research on men’s fertility behaviour or attitudes and expectations concerning childbearing

SES & Women: contradicting resultsSES & Men: ??

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1,92,01

1,92 1,871,76

1,94

1,621,74

1,91 1,932

1,77

ei perusastkeskiaste

alin korkea astealempi kk

ylempiTOTAL

0

0,5

1

1,5

2

2,5

MENWOMEN

45-49-v. = 1955-59 kohortti

children

Completed fertility: Mean number of children at age 45-49, men and women by education

Statistics Finland 2004, own calculations

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24,8

30,9

25,7

19,218 17,8

16,3 16,418,3

14,515,8

1921,2

27

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tal

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en

jälk

.

Keskia

ste

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ko

rkea-a

ste

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mp

i ko

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ste

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8 T

utk

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tkijako

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0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

% WOMENMEN

Childlessness among men and women aged 45-49 yrs in 2004, by education, Finland

Statistics Finland 2004, own calculations

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Low Middle High Low Middle High0

0,5

1

1,5

2

2,5

3

Ideal Current

MENWOMEN

Ideal family size and current number of children,20-45-year-old men and women by education

Miten SES-erot näkyvät lastenhankinta-aikeissa ja kumppanin löytämisessä? (SES-differences, fertility intentions and finding a partner)

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Miehet (0- ja 1-lapsiset), jotka aikovat ”varmasti” hankkia lapsia koulutustason mukaan

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(Men (0 & 1 –parities) who intend to have children by educ. Level)

basic High school & vocational educ.

universityHigher vocational education

Lasta ”varmasti”aikovat lapsettomat miehet kuntatyypeittäin

(Men who ”certainly” intend to have children by Town size)

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CountrysideThe biggest urban area in Finland

Kumppania vailla olevat lapsettomat miehet koulutustason ja ikäryhmän mukaan

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Childless men without a partner by age group and educational level

Lowest

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Miesten ensimmäiset avioliitot vuosina 1990 & 2010First marriages of men in years 1990 & 2010

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Miesten oma koulutustaso & kumppanin koulutustasoMen´s educational level & educ. level of his partner)

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No money, no honey

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Miesten parisuhdestatus ja nettotulot ikäryhmittäin(Relationship status of men and net income by age group)

Green = married & cohabiting, Orange = else

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Kiitos!