Social Policy: EducationDevelopment Economics (Hons)Nic Spaull

Nicspaull.com/research 23 April 2014

Social Policy & EducationFirstly, what is social policy?

Social policyprimarily refers to the guidelines, principles, legislation and activities that affect the living conditions conducive tohuman welfare

Public policy and practice in the areas of health care, human services, criminal justice, inequality, education, and labour

Social Policy is defined as actions that affect the well-being of members of a society through shaping the distribution of and access to goods and resources in that society

Social Policy & EducationSecondly, how does education fit into it?

Most areas of social policy influence education (in some way), and are influenced by education (in some way)

Bidirectional causality

Multiple benefits of education

Benefits of education

Improvements in productivityEconomic growthReduction of inter-generational cycles of povertyReductions in inequality

Lower fertilityImproved child healthPreventative health careDemographic transition

Improved human rightsEmpowerment of womenReduced societal violencePromotion of a national (as opposed to regional or ethnic) identityIncreased social cohesion

SocietyHealthEconomySpecific references: lower fertility (Glewwe, 2002), improved child health (Currie, 2009), reduced societal violence (Salmi, 2006), promotion of a national - as opposed to a regional or ethnic - identity (Glewwe, 2002), improved human rights (Salmi, 2006), increased social cohesion (Heyneman, 2003), Economic growth see any decent Macro textbook, specifically for cognitive skills see (Hanushek & Woessman 2008)

Social Policy & EducationSecondly, how does education fit into it?

Education itself affects society & the individual in real and meaningful ways:Transforms individual capabilities, values, aspirations and desires (see Sen)Allows individuals to think, feel and act in different waysEnables new ways of organizing and supporting social action that depend on numeracy and literacy, technologies of communication and abstract thinking skills (Lewin, 2007). Democratic participation, knowledge creation etc.Education increases peoples ability to add value (productivity)Modernising societies use educational access and attainment as a primary mechanism to sort and select subsequent generations into different social and economic roles (Lewin, 2007: 3) Distribution of incomeNB NB Education is different to the other forms of social policy in that it has the potential to change the GENERATIVE MECHANISMS of the income distribution, not simply re-allocating it once earned (as with grants)

Theory: Human CapitalEducation increases peoples ability to add value (productivity) HCM

+=

The failure to treat human resources explicitly as a form of capital, as a produced means of production, as the product of investment, has fostered the retention of the classical notion of labour as a capacity to do manual work requiring little knowledge and skill, a capacity with which, according to this notion, labourers are endowed about equally. This notion of labour was wrong in the classical period and it is patently wrong now. Counting individuals who can and want to work and treating such a count as a measure of the quantity of an economic factor is no more meaningful than it would be to count the number of all manner of machines to determine their economic importance (Schultz, 1961, p. 3).

Theory: Sorting & signallingEducation does not improve productivity or produce HC, instead acts as a signal of innate productivity/IQ/motivation.Those with higher productivity/IQ/motivation will find it easier to get higher levels of education than those with lower P/IQ/M

Do we care if it is HCM or Signalling?Yes! Implications for public investment.

Elusive equityGiven the strong links between education and income, educational inequality is a fundamental determinant of income inequality.

Clear need to understand SA educational inequality if we are to understand SA income inequality.

High inequality + unemployment 2 of the most severe problems facing SAEducational quality is intimately intertwined with both of these.

Education shall be free, compulsory, universal and equal for all children (Freedom Charter)

Fiske and Ladds (2004) notions of:Equal treatmentEqual educational opportunityEducational adequacy

Not all schools are born equal*SA public schools??Pretoria Boys High School

Education and inequality?IQMotivationSocial networksDiscrimination

*Leibbrandt et al 2010

*High productivity jobs and incomes (17%)Mainly professional, managerial & skilled jobsRequires graduates, good quality matric or good vocational skillsHistorically mainly whiteLow productivity jobs & incomesOften manual or low skill jobsLimited or low quality educationMinimum wage can exceed productivityUniversity/FET

Type of institution (FET or University)Quality of institution Type of qualification (diploma, degree etc.)Field of study (Engineering, Arts etc.)Majority (80%)Minority (20%)cf. Servaas van der Berg QLFS 2011

Bimodality indisputable fact*PIRLS / TIMSS / SACMEQ / NSES / ANA / Matric by Wealth / Language / Location / Dept

Student performance 2003-2011TIMSS (2003) PIRLS (2006) SACMEQ (2007) ANA (2011)TIMSS 2003 (Gr8 Maths & Science)

Out of 50 participating countries (including 6 African countries) SA came lastOnly 10% reached low international benchmarkNo improvement from TIMSS 1999-TIMSS 2003PIRLS 2006 (Gr 4/5 Reading)

Out of 45 participating countries SA came last87% of gr4 and 78% of Gr 5 learners deemed to be at serious risk of not learning to readSACMEQ III 2007 (Gr6 Reading & Maths)SA came 10/15 for reading and 8/15 for maths behind countries such as Swaziland, Kenya and TanzaniaANA 2011 (Gr 1-6 Reading & Maths)Mean literacy score gr3: 35%Mean numeracy score gr3: 28%Mean literacy score gr6: 28%Mean numeracy score gr6: 30%

* TIMSS (2011) prePIRLS (2011)TIMSS 2011 (Gr9 Maths & Science)SA has joint lowest performance of 42 countriesImprovement by 1.5 grade levels (2003-2011)76% of grade nine students in 2011 still had not acquired a basic understanding about whole numbers, decimals, operations or basic graphs, and this is at the improved level of performanceprePIRLS2011 (Gr 4 Reading)29% of SA Gr4 learners completely illiterate (cannot decode text in any langauge)

NSES 2007/8/9

Systemic Evaluations 2007

Matric exams

NSES question 42NSES followed about 15000 students (266 schools) and tested them in Grade 3 (2007), Grade 4 (2008) and Grade 5 (2009). Grade 3 maths curriculum: Can perform calculations using appropriate symbols to solve problems involving: division of at least 2-digit by 1-digit numbers

*Even at the end of Grade 5 most (55%+) quintile 1-4 students cannot answer this simple Grade-3-level problem.

The powerful notions of ratio, rate and proportion are built upon the simpler concepts of whole number, multiplication and division, fraction and rational number, and are themselves the precursors to the development of yet more complex concepts such as triangle similarity, trigonometry, gradient and calculus (Taylor & Reddi, 2013: 194)(Spaull & Viljoen, forthcoming)

550,000 students drop out before matric99% do not get a non-matric qualification (Gustafsson, 2011: p11)What happens to them? 50% youth unemployment.*

*Insurmountable learning deficits: 0.3 SDSpaull & Viljoen, 2014 (SAHRC Report)

The impact of SES on reading/maths (SACMEQ III 2007 Gr 6)Spaull, 2013Almost 40% of SA student reading achievement can be explained by socioeconomic status (31 assets, books, parental education) alone.

In South Africa socioeconomic status largely determines outcomes (with a very small number of exceptions see newspapers for examples)

Indication of wasted human capital potential (see Schleicher, 2009)

Intergenerational povertyIdeal world (AKA Finland )Means blindIdeally, an education system should be means blind in that it offers equal educational opportunities to all students.MeritocraticIdeally, an individuals success at school (and later in the labour-market) should depend on ability and effort not class or wealth.In SA, neither of these criteria are met. Low quality education is a poverty trap.

SA educational inequality

QuestionsIf not the quality of education, what is the driving force behind income inequality?Demand-side factors > supply-side?!

Why is it so difficult to change educational outcomes? (20 years since 1994!)

What are the key interactions between education and health/social-security?

ConclusionEducational inequality is at the heart of income inequality and povertyIncreasing wages for the majority of Black labour market entrants is necessary to lower income inequalityThis is not possible without improving the quality of education they receiveSA has 2 education systems not oneImplications for reporting (means are misleading)Implications for policySA cannot convert material advantage into cognitive skillsInefficient use of resources

Persistent patterns of poverty and privilege

Conclusions & Implications*Persistent patterns of poverty and privilege

SuggestionsAcknowledge the extent of the problem Low quality education is one of the three largest crises facing our country (along with HIV/AIDS and unemployment). Need the political will and public support for widespread reform.Experiment to figure out what worksMore of the same hasnt worked Need to try new things and rigorously evaluate them to see what works. Workbooks & ANAs are a positive sign (Workbook delivery?)Failed programmes provide useful information when acknowledged & disseminated. Leave existing salaries the same but pay good teachers more why not?Increase accountability, information & transparencyWhere is the money going? Deal ruthlessly with corruption this is a social crime. For at least one grade (Gr6?) get ANA externally validated by an independent body like Umalusi and get this information to parents need to empower parents with information in an accessible format

ReferencesBecker, G. (1962). Investment in Human Capital: A Theoretical Analysis. The Journal of Political Economy, 70(5), 9-49.Currie, J. (2009). Healthy, Wealthy, and Wise: Socioeconomic Status, Poor Health in Childhood, and Human Capital Development. Journal of Economic Literature, 47(1), 87-122.Donalson, A. (1992). Content, Quality and Flexibility: The Economics of Education System Change. Spotlight 5/92. Johannesburg: South African Institute of Race Relations.Fleisch, B. (2008). Primary Education in Crisis: Why South African schoolchildren underachieve in reading and mathematics. Cape Town. : Juta & Co.Hanushek, E. & Woessmann, L. (2008). The Role of Cognitive Skills in Economic Development. Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research Working Paper No. 07-34.Hoadley, U. (2010). What do we know about teaching and learning in primary schools in South Africa? Stellenbosch: Appendix B to Van der Berg, S; Meyer, H; Reeves, C; van Wyk, C; Hoadley, U; Bot, M; & Armstrong, P 2010. 'Grade 3 Improvement Project: Main report and Recommendations" for Western Cape Education Department.Schultz, T. (1961). Investment in Human Capital. The American Economic Review , 51 (1), 1-17.Shepherd, D. (2011). Constraints to School Effectiveness: What prevents poor schools from delivering results? Stellenbosch Economic Working Papers 05/11.Spaull, N. (2011). Primary School Performance in Botswana, Mozambique, Namibia and South Africa: A Comparative Analysis of SACMEQ III. SACMEQ Working Papers , 1-74.Taylor, S. (2011). Uncovering Indicators of Effective School Management in South Africa using the National School Effectiveness Study. Stellenbosch Economic Working Papers .Van der Berg, S. (2007). Apartheid's Enduring Legacy: Inequalities in Education. Journal of African Economies, 16(5), 849-880.

Thank youwww.nicspaull.com/researchnicholasspaull@gmail.com@NicSpaull

*Foundation PhaseIntermediate PhaseSenior PhaseFET PhaseGr 1 - Gr 2 - Gr 3 Gr 4 Gr 5 Gr 6 Gr 7 Gr 8 Gr 9 - Gr 10 Gr 11 Gr 12 Foundation PhaseIntermediate PhaseSenior PhaseFET PhaseECD

Theory education in SA

Cost of tertiary education (explicit & implicit costs)Parental & personal aspirations and perceptionsSociety/culture

Parental IQ (assortative mating)Maternal healthNutritionEarly cognitive stimulation: preschool (quantity & quality), home environmentAverage school SESLanguage of learning & teaching (LOLT)Teacher qualityPeer effectsSubject choice

Type of tertiary education (quality) - institution and field of studyDemand and supplyIndividual motivation

(See Taylor, 2010)

Overview of what we know about inequality and underperformance in South Africa

Gr 1 - Gr 2 - Gr 3 Gr 4 Gr 5 Gr 6 Gr 7 Gr 8 Gr 9 - Gr 10 Gr 11 Gr 12

*Foundation PhaseIntermediate PhaseSenior PhaseFET PhaseNational School Effectiveness Study (NSES)

Grade 3 (2007); Grade 4 (2008); Grade 5 (2009) Panel 268 schools [All provinces except Gauteng]____________________________________

UnderperformanceLanguage: In 44% of Gr4 and 32% of Gr5 classes there was no paragraph writing done over the year (from best learner).Mathematics: 88% of Gr5 maths teachers covered no more than 35 of the 89 topics (40%) in the gr5 maths curriculum

InequalityFrequency of paragraph writing (half a page or less) EC/KZN=1.7; WC=5.8 /yearGrade 3 students in historically white schools perform much better on the same test than grade 5 students from historically black schools

Gr 1 - Gr 2 - Gr 3 Gr 4 Gr 5 Gr 6 Gr 7 Gr 8 Gr 9 - Gr 10 Gr 11 Gr 12

*Foundation PhaseIntermediate PhaseSenior PhaseFET PhaseprePIRLS 2011

Grade 4 all 11 languages 433 schools, 19259 students____________________________________

Underperformance29% of gr4 students did not reach the low international benchmark they could not read SA performs similarly to Botswana, but 3 years learning behind average Columbian Gr4

InequalityLinguistic inequalities: Large differences by home language Xitsonga, Tshivenda and Sepedi students particularly disadvantaged

PIRLS (2006) showed LARGE differences between African language schools and Eng/Afr schools

Howie et al (2011)

*Data now available for download

PIRLS 2006 see Shepherd (2011)

Gr 1 - Gr 2 - Gr 3 Gr 4 Gr 5 Gr 6 Gr 7 Gr 8 Gr 9 - Gr 10 Gr 11 Gr 12

*Foundation PhaseIntermediate PhaseSenior PhaseFET PhaseSACMEQ 2007

Grade 6 Numeracy and literacy392 schools, 9071 students____________________________________

Underperformance27% of students functionally illiterateSA performs worse than many low-income African countries (Tanzania, Kenya, Swaziland, Zimbabwe) No improvement between SACMEQ II (2000) and SACMEQ III (2007)Although majority (98%) of students are enrolled, sometimes almost no learning

InequalityLarge differences between quintiles (see table later)Large inequalities in maths teacher content knowledge

Gr 6 Teacher Content Knowledge - see McKay & Spaull (2013)

SACMEQ III (Spaull & Taylor, 2012)LiteracyNumeracy

Gr 1 - Gr 2 - Gr 3 Gr 4 Gr 5 Gr 6 Gr 7 Gr 8 Gr 9 - Gr 10 Gr 11 Gr 12

*Foundation PhaseIntermediate PhaseSenior PhaseFET PhaseTIMSS 2011

Grade 9 Maths and science285 schools, 11969 students____________________________________

Underperformance76% of Gr9 students had not acquired a basic understanding about whole numbers, decimals, operations or basic graphs (i.e. had not reached low int. benchmark)Avg. Gr 9 SA student is 2yrs (2.8yrs) behind the average Gr8 student from a middle income country in maths (science) Contrary to popular belief, even South Africas top schools do not perform well by international standardsInequalityAvg Q1/Q2 Gr9 student is 3yrs (4yrs) worth of learning behind the average Q5 student in maths (science)Avg Gr 9 student in ECA is 2yrs worth of learning behind avg Gr9 student in GAU

*Data now available for download

Performance of quintile five schools in TIMSS 2003 Maths see Taylor MST (2011)Even Q5 schools in SA perform at a comparatively low level

Gr 1 - Gr 2 - Gr 3 Gr 4 Gr 5 Gr 6 Gr 7 Gr 8 Gr 9 - Gr 10 Gr 11 Gr 12

*Foundation PhaseIntermediate PhaseSenior PhaseFET PhaseMatric

Grade 12 VariousRoughly half the cohort____________________________________

UnderperformanceOf 100 students that enroll in grade 1 approximately 50 will make it to matric, 40 will pass and 12 will qualify for university

InequalitySubject combinations differ between rich and poor differential access to higher educationMaths / Maths-lit case in pointAre more students taking maths literacy because THEY cannot do pure-maths, or because their TEACHERS cannot teach pure-maths?

See Taylor (2012)See Taylor (2012)The ratio of grade 2 enrolments ten years prior to matric to matric passes by provinceMatric

More students making it to grade 10 but not more making it to matricPartially due to less repetition at lower grades

LARGE differences in the ability of provinces to convert grade 1 enrolments into matric passes

Why are more students taking maths literacy?

*No early cognitive stimulationWeak culture of T&LLow curric coverageLow quality teachersLow time-on-taskMATRICPre-MATRICMatric pass rateNo. endorsementsSubject choiceThroughputLow accountability50% dropoutHUGE learning deficitsQuality?What are the root causes of low and unequal achievement? Media sees only this

Social policy implications?

Questions, conclusions & recommendations

Speaking of a single education system in SA is a misnomer the average South African student does not exist in any meaningful sense. Bimodality is a fact.

South Africa is not able to convert material advantage into cognitive skills Highly inefficient

While the survey was conducted in 2007, and things may have changed, the outcomes certainly havent (see ANAs, 2011; and (?) PIRLS/TIMSS 2011) More of the same?ConclusionsSerious blight on the national consciencePersistent patterns of poverty and privilege

When faced with an exceedingly low and unequal quality of education do we.A) Increase accountability {US model}Create a fool-proof highly specified, sequenced curriculum (CAPS/workbooks)Measure learning better and more frequently (ANA)Increase choice/information in a variety of ways

B) Improve the quality of teachers {Finnish model}Attract better candidates into teaching degrees draw candidates from the top (rather than the bottom) of the matric distributionIncrease the competence of existing teachers (Capacitation)Long term endeavor which requires sustained, committed, strategic, thoughtful leadership (something we dont have)

C) All of the above {Utopian model}

Perhaps A while we set out on the costly and difficult journey of B??

*

Get the basics rightTeachers need to be in school teachingEvery child (teacher) needs access to adequate learning (teaching) materialsEvery school should meet basic sanitation and health requirementsEvery child should receive one year of adequate quality preschool educationNo child should be hungry at school (for social & cognitive reasons)Continuous diagnostic testing to figure out what children actually knowMake sure that the curriculum is tailored to the educational needs of the majority of students, not the top 15%Every student MUST master the basics of foundational numeracy and literacy these are the building blocks of further education weak foundations = recipe for disaster

SA is a middle income country which spends 20% (!) of all government expenditure on education this is not rocket science.[ANAs and workbooks are a very good sign (but) need consistency and time]Suggestions

*********78% and 85% figures were taken from research reports by Van der Berg and Leibbrandt**The QLFS classifies professions as follows: Highly skilled (legislators, senior officials and managers, professionals, technicians and associate profesionals); Semi-skilled (Clerks, service workers and shop and market personnel, skilled agricultural and fishery workers, craft and related trade workers, plant and machinery operators and assembly), Unskilled (Elementary occupations, domestic workers).**The most comprehensive reports for each of these datasets are as follows: SACMEQ (Moloi & Chetty, 2011), TIMSS (Reddy, 2006), PIRLS (Howie, et al., 2008), Systemic Evaluations (Department of Education, 2008), National School Effectiveness Study (Taylor, 2011b),and the Annual National Assessments (Department of Basic Education, 2011).

*Taylor, N., & Reddi, B. (2013). Writing and learning mathematics. In N. Taylor, S. Van der Berg, & T. Mabogoane, Creating Effective Schools. Cape Town: Pearson.

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