Socio-Economic Impacts of Climate Change in

Afghanistan

Background

Support NAPA Process (UNEP/NEPA)

Review climate projections

Temperature, Precipitation to 2100

Assessment of ANDS and Sector Strategies

Agriculture, Social Protection, Energy & Water

Consultation with key stakeholders

Donors, Ministries, NGOs,

Field Visits

Kabul, Bamyan, Balkh, Jowzjan

Challenges

Climate projection models require refinement due to

the lack of reliable historic meteorological records.

Complex topography means variations in climate

response, particularly precipitation, are likely to be

large.

Sporadic & poor quality socio-economic data make

modelling of costs and benefits of adaptation difficult

Poor national security also restricts the ability to

monitor impacts and mainstream effective responses.

Historic Climate Trends

Arid and semi-arid continental climate with

cold winters and hot summers, with drought

ongoing since 1990s

Mean annual temperature has increased by

0.6°C since 1960, at an average rate of around

0.13°C Warming trends are most pronounced in

Autumn (SON).

Mean rainfall over Afghanistan has decreased

slightly (at an average rate of 0.5mm per month

(or 2 percent per decade) since 1960, due to

lower spring rainfall.

Projected Significant warming across all regions of

Afghanistan

Average increases in temperature of between 2C and

6.2C by 2100

Warming is most rapid in spring/summer with this

trend being marked in the north and the central plains

of Afghanistan.

Substantial increases in the frequency of days and

nights that are considered ‘hot’ in current climate,

especially during summer months.

Up to 2030s, the amount of warming is not sensitive

to global emission scenarios. By 2060, impacts are

sensitive to global emissions projections.

Projections - Temperature

Projections - Temperature

Projections - Rainfall

In the short term, average rainfall is projected to

show to be fairly flat with potential for small

increase, 10-20mm.

Long term changes 2090s show conditions are

generally drier (-40 mm high, -20 mm medium, -

10 mm low)

Much of the drying is due to decreases in spring

rainfall (MAM).

Winters are expected to be significantly drier in

the South.

Projections - Rainfall

Climatic Hazards

Exacerbation of existing hazards

Increased heat stress

Drought/changes in precipitation

Floods due to rapid snow melt

Lower river flow rates

Climatic Hazards

Sectoral Impacts - Agriculture

Increased soil evaporation, reduced river flow from earlier

snow melt, and less frequent rain during peak cultivation

seasons

Increased crop failure levels due to water shortages, with

increase in amount of potentially productive land left

uncultivated.

Narrower choice of crop options with water-intensive

varieties less attractive compared to drought hardy varieties,

including poppy.

Large parts of the agricultural economy will become

marginal without significant expansion of irrigation and water

management.

The existing irrigation system is operating at a low

efficiency rate of about 25 percent, with significant potential

for improvement.

Sectoral Impacts – Water

Cumulative effects of more frequent and intense droughts on

reservoirs and groundwater could threaten the water supply of

entire communities in the most arid regions of Afghanistan,

Rises in winter and spring temperatures will lead to more

rapid and earlier snow melt, creating risk of flash flooding

exacerbated by hardened drought effected soils.

The lack of water availability will increase pressure on

Afghanistan and surrounding states to claim the greatest

possible share of regional water sources in the longer term

with potential likelihood for political dispute.

Sectoral Impacts – LivelihoodsThe poor are most vulnerable to climate change impacts, with

food security deteriorating and impacts felt most by those in the

agricultural economy.

Distributional effects are more likely to fall upon women and

children, and upon those involved in subsistence agriculture or

pastoralism.

A large proportion of the Afghan population live just above the

poverty line - climatic shocks have the potential to tip a large

%of population into poverty.

Impacts on human health, such as increased prevalence of

disease affect the amount of labour available for agriculture and

non-farm rural activities.

The effects of environmental degradation reduce the availability

of animal feed, and the funds available for livestock husbandry.

Sectoral Impacts - EnergyMitigation

GHG emissions in absolute and per capita terms are extremely low (0.5 tons Co2e pc). Electricity sourced from indigenous/imported hydro.

Low carbon growth is sensible under development/population growth scenarios but should not preclude indigenous fossil fuel resources.

Developmental impact should take precedence over emissions considerations in order to build resilience and adaptive capacity.

The limited reach of regional grids mean that off grid renewable technologies, (small hydro, solar PV, solar thermal and wind) are important.

Adaptation

Impacts are most likely to be felt in hydro-electricity production, with higher winter (rapid snow melt)and lower summer flow rates (drought, irrigation)

Large thermal power plant and transmission infrastructure are also susceptible to heat stress and flooding

Going ForwardImprove modelling work and climatic data collection in

country, using existing available data and expanded climate

station network

Improve 'climate awareness and resilience' of development

strategies and programmes at Ministry and Donor level,

through risk screening and mainstreaming

Ensure better integration of Agriculture and Water

management strategies and pooling of resources

Work towards costed adaptation investment plans to access

climate adaptation funding mechanisms currently under

development (eg UNDP)

Government experts should continue to engage with wider

regional planning and development bodies to share best

practice from central and south Asia