Soda Ash Commodity Report (2)

7/27/2019 Soda Ash Commodity Report (2)

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SODAASHCOMMODITYREPORT

EER396GEOLOGYOFEARTHRESOURCES

PREPAREDBY:JOHNMAXWELLSEPTEMBER22,2011


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Abstract

Asanimportantpartofmanyfinishedproductsofmodernlifesodaashisakeyindustrialmineral.Soda

ashhasbothnaturalandsyntheticmeansofproduction.TheSolvayProcessisthedominantsynthetic

process.TheUnitedStatesisblessedwithlargenaturaldepositsofnaturalsodaashintheformoftrona

ore.Themainusesforsodaashareintheproductionofglass,chemicals,soapanddetergent. Glass

manufacturingismostcommonuseforsodaash.Fromflatglassforwindowsandautomobile

windshieldstocontainerglassforfood,sodaandbeer,sodaashisachiefinputforallofthoseproducts.

Theproductionofsodaashhasgenerallyincreasedforthepasttenyears.Thepercentofsodaashused

inthe

develop

world

has

slowed

due

to

astagnant

economy.

However,

China

and

India

have

provided

a

strongdemandforsodaashastheireconomieshavenotslowedandarestillgrowingathighrates.Like

anyindustrialmineral,growthistiedtoGDPdemand,butsincethemanufacturingofglassisakey

componentinhigherlivingstandards(windowsinhomes,automobiles)ChinaandIndiaprovidealarge

marketforthecontinuedgrowthintheuseofsodaash.


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Introduction

Sodaashorsodiumcarbonate,Na2CO3,analkalinematerial,hasbeenusedthroughouthistoryfor

variousindustrialpurposes(Kostick,1995,p.99100).Whennecessarymaterialsbecomescarcehumans

adapttofindalternativewaystoproducetheitem.DuringtheIndustrialRevolution,theFrenchneeded

sodaashformanufacturingglassandtextiles.Franceneededareliablesupplyofsodaashasitwas

becomingincreasinglydifficulttofind.Anincentiveof2400livreswasofferedbytheFrenchAcademyof

Sciencestoderivesodaasheconomicallyfromseasalt.NicolasLeblancwasthemanwhodevelopeda

processtocultivatesodaashfromasaltcakeandhydrochloricacid.Leblancneverreceivedhisprize,

buthe

showed

it

was

possible

to

extract

prized

alkalis

from

other

sources

(Kiefer,

2002

Jan.).Today,

soda

ashcanbeproducedthroughnaturalorsyntheticmeans.Asof2006,70%oftheworldssodaashis

producedsyntheticallyandthemajorityproducedviatheSolvayProcesswhiletherestisproducedvia

naturaldeposits(Santini,Fastert,Harris,2006,p.872).Bothnaturalandsyntheticallyproducedsodaash

arekeyinputstoproducingmanyitemsthatarepartofeverydaylife.

LocationandGeneralGeologyofNaturalSodaAsh

Inigneousandmetamorphicgroundwaterenvironmentsthereisalackofchlorideandsulfate.Withthe

absenceofthesematerials,thefluidissaturatedwithcarbonandsodium.Sodiumcarbonatewill

emergefromtheweatheringofigneousrocks.Oneideatheorizedforthegeneralformationofsodium

carbonateistheevaporationofwatersaturatedwithsodiumcarbonateinshallowwater. Naturalsoda

ashoccursinsemiaridregionswheretherateofevaporationisgradualandisconcentratedintotrona

ore.Sodaashoccursnaturallyintrona(sodiumsequicarbonate)depositswhichisamineralwhich

containssodiumcarbonate.Monohydrate,Wegscheiderite,andSodiumBicarbonateareothersodium

carbonatecontainingminerals.(Santini,Fastert,Harris,2006,p.860861)Someofthegeologic

propertiesoftronaare:perfectcleavage,unevenfracture,2.53hardness,andsolubleinH20(Anthony,


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Bideaux,Bladh,andNichols,2005).Althoughthesesodiumcarbonatesolutionsoccurnaturally,

economicallyviabledepositsarerareduetothesolubilityandsoftnessoftheminerals. Trona

concentrationsaregeologicallyyoungduetheseproperties(Santini,Fastert,Harris,2006,p.861).The

largestsingledepositoftronaislocatedinWyoming,U.S.A.intheGreenRiverBasinwithknown

reservesof47billionmetrictons(Kostick,2011,p.2).China,Botswana,Kenya,Turkey,andEthiopiaare

othercountrieswithlargedepositsofnaturalsodaash(Kostick,2010,70.3).Brineswithsodium

carbonateareanothermainnaturalformforsodaashproduction.Inadditiontothenaturaldeposits,

thesyntheticproductionofsodaashisderivedfromvariousnaturalmaterialssuchassalt,limestone,

coal(Santini,Fastert,Harris,2006,p.871).

Consumption

WhetherSodaashisproducednaturallyorsyntheticallytheusesarethesame.Sodaashhasbeenused

forthousandsofyears.OneinterestingusewasbyAncientEgyptianswhousedmadeglassfromit

(Kostick,1995,p.99).Historically,themostcommonusesareglassandsoap.Thesetwousescontinueto

besignificant(Santini,Fastert,Harris,2006,p.873).In2010,theconsumptionpercentageofsodaashin

theU.S.was:48%glassproduction,26%chemicalproduction,10%soapanddetergents,4%

desulfurizationoffluegas,4%pulpandpaperand8%otheruses.Thereportedconsumptionofsodaash

in2010intheU.S.was5,270metrictonsandhasbeenincreasingsincetheendoftherecessionof2008

(SeeChart1forU.S.consumption)(Kostick,2010,p.70.2).

PrimaryUsesofSodaAsh:Glass,Chemicals,SoapandDetergents

Thechiefinwhichsodaashisusedisglassmanufacturing.Flat,container,fiberandspecialtyglassare

differenttypesofglassinwhichsodaashisconsumed(Santini,Fastert,Harris,2006,p.873874).51%of

theglassproducedin2010withsodaashwascontainerglass.Containerglassisproducedforfood,

beer,liquor,andotherconsumerproducts.Flatglassistheothermajorglassproductinwhichthekey


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endproductsarevehicleglassandbuildingconstruction(Kostick,2010,p.70.2).Manychemicalsare

createdindirectlywithsodaashbeingprimerawmaterial.Someexamplesofchemicalsthatusesoda

asharebakingsoda,causticsoda,sodiumphosphates(Santini,Fastert,Harris,2006,p.874).Sodaash

hasthreemainusesintheproductionofdetergents:Directadditiontoenhancethecleaningactionof

thedetergent,feedstockbuilderofvariouscleaningsurfactants,andlaundrywatersoftener(Santini,

Fastert,Harris,2006,p.874).

ProductionandPriceHistoryofSodaAsh

Sincethereisbothnaturalandsyntheticsodaash,therearetwodifferentproductionprocesses.The

twomajorprocessesofnaturalsodaashareabrineprocessandaTronaoreprocess.Thebrineprocess

consistsofdryingoutsodiumcarbonaterichwaterandcollectingtheresultingsolidproduct.The

secondprocessconsistsofrockandpillarminestoproducetronaore,whichis90%puresodium

carbonate,thatiscrushed,dissolved,filtered,anddriedtoeliminatethe10%tracematerialstoproduce

>99%sodaash(Santini,Fastert,Harris,2006,p.870).(SeeChart2forTronaOreProcessingdiagram)

About30%ofsodaashisproducednaturallywiththemajorityintheU.S.Therearenumerouswaysto

producesodaashsynthetically(Santini,Fastert,Harris,2006,p.871).Thetwosyntheticprocesses

createdinthe19thcenturytosolvethesupplyshortageofsodaashweretheLeblancProcessandthe

SolvayProcess. Thesetwoprocesseswereinstrugglewitheachotherforsupremacy.TheSolvay

Processbecamethestandardprocessbecauseitwaslesswastefulofinputsandcausedlesspolluting

thantherivalLeblancProcess(Kiefer,2002Feb).ThemainrawmaterialsintheSolvayProcessaresalt,

limestone,water

and

coal

to

fire

the

ovens

to

make

steam

(Santini,

Fastert,

Harris,

2006,

p.

872).

The

basicprocessconsistsofcreatingammoniabrinethatisthenmixedwithCO2.ThereactionoftheCO2

andthesaltscreatessodiumbicarbonatewhichiseasilydecomposedintosodiumcarbonatebyheating

(SeeChart3foraSolvayProcessdiagram)(Kiefer,2002Feb).Theproductionofsodaashworldwidein


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2010was47,500,000metrictons.(SeeChart4forWorldSodaAshProduction)Sodaashisvaluedper

metrictonbytheUSGS.Theguidelinevalueisanaverageoffreeonboardbulk(f.o.b.),densenatural

sodaashfromGreenRiver,WYandSearlesValley,CA.Thedifferencebetweenvalueandpriceisthat

theUSGSreportsthevalueofcombinedrevenueonlongtermcontractswithnovalueaddcosts

includedinthevalue.Thevaluein2010was$128.39(PleaseSeeChart5forSodaAshValue)(Kostick,

2010,p.70.2).

GrowthForecast

Sincethepriceofsodaashisnotalwaysdirectlylinkedtothevalue,forecastingtherateofproductionis

amoredirectprocess. Therateofgrowthinthesodaashindustryismainlydependentonitsprimary

product:glass.Duetotherecession,thedevelopedworldislikelytoexperienceflatgrowthinglass

demand.However,developingcountriesoftheworldleadtwopowerfultrendsofgrowthinglass

manufacturing:buildingconstructionandautomobilesmanufacturing.From2010 2020,therewillbe

growthof26%intotalcommercialandresidentialfloorspace(PikeResearch,2011). From2004to

2010,therewasa150%increaseinautomobilespercapitainChinawithalikelihoodofanother

doublinginthenextyenyears(Heymann,E.,2010) Demandforflatglasswindowforbuildingsand

automobilewindshieldswillmirrorthedemandtrendsforthefinishedproducts.Inthedeveloped

world,thereisonemainfactornegativelyaffectingsodaashdemandenvironmentalconcerns.There

hasbeeneffortputintoincreasingglassrecyclingaswellasadoptionofplasticcontainersforfoodand

beverage(Santini,Fastert,Harris,2006,p.873).Bothofthoseconcernsreducetheneedforproduced

glass.In

Chart

4the

average

production

growth

for

pre

recession

time

period

was

4%,

with

low

and

negativegrowthexperiencedduringtherecession.However,2010shows7%growth.Thisistheeffect

oftheGDPgrowthinthedevelopingworldespeciallyChina,whereGDPgrowthwillbe9.5%in2011and

2012(IMF,2011,p.72).Although7%maybeanoutlier,aregressiontoaprerecession4%growthrate


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isafairlylikelyestimateforsodaashproduction.Thisisduetothedemandinthedevelopingworld,

whichwilllikelybeastrongerforcethantheenvironmentalconcernsandthelingeringrecessioninthe

developedworld(PleaseseeChart6forWorldSodaAshProductionForecast) AsmoreChineseand

Indianpeoplewanttodrivecarsinsteadofscooters,ownmultistoryhomeswithmanywindowsand

workinhighrisebuildingsthathaveanallglassfaade,itiscertainlypossiblethatsodaashdemandwill

mirrorGDPgrowthindevelopingcountries.

Conclusion

AlthoughtheLeblancprocessisnotusedtoday,thesyntheticproductionofsodaashisaveryimportant

source. EvenaftertheIndustrialRevolutionandworldwars,sodaashcontinuestobeanimportant

commodityfortheworld.Itwouldbemuchhardertoproduceglassandwashclotheswithoutsodaash.

Asfarasindustrialmineralsgo,sodaashisfairlyanonymous,butitsimpactisinvaluableformodern

standardsofliving.Theriseoflivingstandardsinthedevelopingworldwillcreatedemandforsodaash

fortheforeseeablefuture.


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rt1:U.S.SodaAshConsumption:ReportedSoda Ash Consumption: Reported

2001 6,380

2002 6,430

2003 6,270

2004 6,260

2005 6,2002006 6,110

2007 5,940

2008 5,700

2009 5,020

2010 5,270

(Thousand metric tons)

eproduced from 2001-2010 Soda Ash Minerals Yearbook from United States Geological Survey

aterials located at http://minerals.usgs.gov/minerals/pubs/commodity/soda_ash/

sed on September 16th, 2011

8

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

000'sMetricTonsofSodaAshConsum

ption

U.S.SODAASHCONSUMPTION:REP


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Chart4:EstimatedWorldSodaAshProductionSODA ASH: ESTIMATED WORLD PRODUCTION

Year Metric Tons % Change from prior year

2001 35,700

2002 37,200 4%

2003 38,400 3%

2004 40,300 5%2005 41,900 4%

2006 43,700 4%

2007 45,900 5%

2008 46,700 2%

2009 44,300 -5%

2010 47,500 7%


Data reproduced from 2001-2010 Soda Ash Minerals Yearbook from United States Geological Survey

All materials located at http://minerals.usgs.gov/minerals/pubs/commodity/soda_ash/

Accessed on September 16th, 2011

11

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

45,000

50,000

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 200

000'sMetricTonSodaAshProduction

SODAASH: ESTIMATEDWORLDPRBYYEAR


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Chart5: SodaAshValueYear Avg. ($) Value f.o.b. per metric ton

2001 74.73

2002 74.96

2003 71.88

2004 70.272005 88.39

2006 100.52

2007 114.12

2008 134.6

2009 143.17

2010 128.39

Data reproduced from 2001-2010 Soda Ash Minerals Yearbook from United States Geological Survey

All materials located at http://minerals.usgs.gov/minerals/pubs/commodity/soda_ash/

Accessed on September 16th, 2011

12

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 )ValueofMetricTonF.O.B.

SodaAsh

SODAASH($)VALUEF.O.B.PERMEBYYEAR


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Chart6: Forecasted10yearSodaAshProduction

SODA ASH: ESTIMATED WORLD PRODUCTION

Year Metric Tons*

2011 49,400

2012 51,376

2013 53,431

2014 55,5682015 57,791

2016 60,103

2017 62,507

2018 65,007

2019 67,607

2020 70,312


*Assuming 4% growth rate for next 10 years

13

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

80,000

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2

000

'sMetrictonsofSodaAshProduction

ForecastedGrowthofSodaAshP

2020


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http://www.handbookofmineralogy.com/pdfs/trona.pdf

(last

revised

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Commodities,

and

Capital

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p.

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Soda Ash Commodity Report (2)