SOMALIAStrategic Towns Recaptured

There is a broad optimism aboutrecent military successes.

Transitional Federal Government(TFG), Amisom (African Union), Ethio-pian and Kenyan troops are graduallysqueezing Al Haraka al Shabaab alMujahideen (al Shabaab) forces out oftheir bases and main sources ofincome.

AU forces entered the southern Somalitown of Afmadow on May 30th, one ofthe few remaining bases held by al Sha-baab. Afmadow has been a long-termtarget ever since Kenyan troopsinvaded southern Somalia in October,before later joining Amisom.

Al Shabaab fighters in Afmadow,which lies some 120 kilometres (75miles) into Somalia from the Kenyanborder, had held back Kenyan troopsfor months, blocking the advancetowards the key al Shabaab-held portof Kismayo. (� AFP, Nairobi 30 ⁄ 5)

Days earlier al Shabaab had lost its keystronghold of Afgoye in a campaigndubbed ‘‘Operation Free Lower Shabe-elle Region’’. The town controls keyroads some 30km northwest of the cap-ital Mogadishu.

The loss of Afgoye had been anothermajor blow for the insurgents who havebeen on the backfoot for severalmonths, although al Shabaab fightersdescribed it as a tactical retreat. Offi-cials hoped that the capture of Afgoyewould deny al Shabaab a base fromwhich to continue its recent spate ofguerrilla attacks on the capital.

More than 400,000 people were livingin the Afgoye region at the start of2012, the world’s largest concentrationof displaced people. The hope is thatits capture will allow access by aidworkers until now banned by al Sha-baab.

Al Shabaab’s withdrawal from Afgoyewithout fierce resistance follows a pat-tern of retreat, including a pull-out frompositions in Mogadishu August 2011,and their abandonment of the key cityof Baidoa to Ethiopian and Somalitroops in February. However, the fight-ers have since launched a brutal cam-paign using guerrilla tactics includingsuicide, grenade and mortar attacks,and analysts warn they remain a seriousthreat. (� AFP, Mogadishu 26 ⁄ 5)

The Battle for Kismayo Begins

With Afgoye and Afmadow behind itthe Kenya Defence Force is poised towrest control of the strategic southernport city of Kismayo, it hopes by

August. The fall of Kismayo will dealthe extremist group a major blow. Avital source of revenue that has under-pinned its political prestige and influ-ence and allowed it to mollify the clansand buy consent will be choked.

More significant, the fall of the citymay sow further dissension in its ranksand foment a fatal process of internalorganisational disintegration anddecomposition, impossible to reverse.

But one must not lose sight of thepotential military pitfalls, said DailyNation, Nairobi.

Owing to the city’s economic, politicaland symbolic significance, it is highlylikely Al-Shabaab hard-liners mayattempt to put up a stiff resistance,even though there have been reportsclan elders have been busy piling thepressure on the movement to avoid ablood bath and to pull out.

Even if this pressure succeeds and theKenyan forces and their Amisom alliestake the city without any major com-bat, the struggle to secure Kismayo andmaintain control could prove long,arduous and complicated.

Remnants of Al-Shabaab will continueto wage a low-intensity guerrilla cam-paign and operate discreetly in somepockets of the vast city.

As has happened elsewhere, the take-over of the city will see a correspondingrise in insurgent suicide and ImprovisedExplosive Device (IED) attacks as wellas targeted assassinations.

The greater overriding imperative mustbe to win over the trust of the publicand create the context for wider stabili-sation — a gradual restoration of peace,law and order and the creation of acredible and legitimate political dispen-sation at the local and national level.

It is impossible for the political elitejostling for national leadership in Mog-adishu to win over the sullen mass ofdesperate and despaired citizenry, muchless interest them in what is happeningthere, in the absence of any scheme toprovide basic services and improve liv-ing conditions.

A number of donors are now trying tochange this and funding modest pro-jects to rehabilitate infrastructure andprovide basic services in major townsrecovered from Al-Shabaab, such asMogadishu. Such schemes are positiveand must be extended to other areas,such as Kismayo, when the situationpermits and the active combat phase isconcluded. (Daily Nation, Nairobi 18 ⁄ 6)

Guerrilla Tactics

Despite the confident claims of the Am-isom Force Commander and his US

Conferences

Istanbul

The Second Istanbul Conference onSomalia, under the theme ‘‘PreparingSomalia’s Future: Goals for 2015,’’ tookplace on May 31st and June 1st 2012.The Conference reaffirmed its respect forthe sovereignty, territorial integrity, polit-ical independence and unity of Somalia.It agreed that for genuine peace to takehold in Somalia, Somali people shouldseek dialogue, reconciliation and politicalcooperation including in establishinginclusive, accountable and legitimategovernance.

The Conference highlighted that primaryresponsibility for establishing a politicalsolution in the country lies with Somalis.The role of the international communityis to support Somalis to provide leader-ship and ownership in rebuilding afunctioning state and local governmentsthat can provide security, ensure the ruleof law and respect for human rights, pro-vide basic social services and create anenabling environment that allows foreconomic opportunity for all its citizens.(puntlandi.com 2 ⁄ 6)

Somalia ⁄Somaliland

Two days of the first-ever formal talksbetween Somalia and the breakawayregion of Somaliland ended in Cheven-ing, near London (UK), on June 21st.

Both sides sent a team of five memberswho ratified an 8-point plan, the Cheven-ing Declaration, with observers from theEuropean Union, Norway and the Britishgovernment:

• Agreed that the talks would take placebetween two sides;

• Noted the need to adopt a commonapproach to avoid anything thatwould undermine the continuation ofthe talks as defined above;

• Committed to the continuation of thetalks and called on the two presidentsto meet to review progress as soon aspossible;

• Called on the international communityto continue to facilitate the talks,including providing the two sides withexternal experts on legal, economicand security matters;

• Agreed to share experience on workingmore effectively with the internationalcommunity on the use of developmentand humanitarian assistance for thepeople of both sides and called for theinternational community to increasethat assistance;

• Agreed to cooperate in the fightagainst terrorism, extremism and seri-ous crimes;

• Agreed to cooperate in the fightagainst piracy at sea and on land,maritime crime, illegal fishing andtoxic dumping; and

• Reiterated their support for ending theTransition in Somalia.

(Shabelle Media Network 22 ⁄ 6)

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advisors that Al Shabaab is on the run,the overall military situation is hard togauge, said Africa Confidential. Overthe last 15 months, Al Shabaab hassuccessfully implemented a policy ofnot holding ground if it meant a highhuman cost to the organisation. Withtraditional guerrilla tactics, fighterswithdraw in the face of overwhelmingforce, after having cached militaryequipment and organised clandestinecells.

Shabaab leaders have learned from theexperience of their counterparts inAfghanistan that their enemy will notcommit enough troops to ensure con-trol of the territory. Moreover, whileAmisom and Ethiopian forces may takea town centre and deal a major sym-bolic blow to Al Shabaab, securing theoutskirts and rural areas is left to theTFG army or other proxies, such asAhlu Sunna wal Jama’ah in Galgadudand Gedo. Al Shabaab concentrates itsattacks on these forces because they areweaker. The danger is that it will endup controlling the countryside, whileconducting urban guerrilla warfareagainst Amisom and its allies.

Al Shabaab is also betting on discon-tent among the population under TFGcontrol. The poor behaviour of govern-ment forces and security officers, theTFG’s lack of interest in reconciliationwith clans previously allied to Al Sha-baab and the marginalisation of someclans by new local administrationscould all prove able recruiting sergeantsfor the jihadists. If Amisom is to con-tain the threats, it will need a newsurge and to get involved in local poli-tics, which it has kept out of until now.That could prove dangerous to its cur-rently positive image. (Africa Confidential22 ⁄ 6)

Ceel Ma’an Port Captured: Amisomforces captured the strategic CeelMa’an port and Isaley airstrip, in Mid-dle Shabeelle Region [southern Soma-lia] on June 22nd.

Ceel Ma’an and Isaley lie 37km northof the capital, Mogadishu and al Sha-baab used Ceel Ma’an to bring in for-eign fighters and weapons. (Jowharwebsite, Mogadishu 23 ⁄ 6)

Aweys Defects: Reliable sources withinSomalia’s presidency say the formerleader of the now defunct, HisbulIslam, who joined al Shabaab, HasanDahir Aweys, has defected to the gov-ernment.

Relations between Aweys and al Sha-baab were lately strained. Aweys hasseveral times launched verbal attacksagainst al Shabaab and he lately fearedthe sect might kill him after he opposedthe way it operates, particularly the

way it carried out killings and bomb-ings. (AllPuntland.com website 4 ⁄ 6)

US Offers Bounties and Troops: Thebounties for seven members of theSomalia-based Islamist network will beadministered by the State Depart-ment’s Rewards for Justice pro-gramme. It will pay up to $7m for al-Shabaab’s founder, Ahmed Abdi aw-Mohamed; up to $5m each for hisassociates, Ibrahim Haji Jama, FuadMohamed Khalaf, Bashir MohamedMahamoud and Mukhtar Robow; andup to $3m for two other members.(The Independent, London 8 ⁄ 6)

American troops have also arrived inMogadishu. The more than 390 troopswill be setting up their base there, withthe aim of training Somali governmentforces in the capital. Reports add thatthe troops will also interrogate sus-pected al Shabaab members who haveeither been captured or have surren-dered themselves.

The US used to carry out drone attackson Somalia but now wants to bedirectly involved in the war on al Sha-baab. (AllPuntland.com 24 ⁄ 6)

SUDAN‘‘Rise Up! Rise Up!’’

Ostensibly angry at austerity mea-sures, demonstrators call for govern-ment overthrow.

Protesters hurled stones, burned tyresand blocked roads in the Sudanese cap-ital on June 23rd, the eighth day ofwidening unrest sparked by risingprices. Witnesses reported five separatedemonstrations across the city afternightfall despite a police order to stampout the unrest.

The demonstrations, which began withstudents outside the University ofKhartoum on June 16th, now involve across-section of the population, thereporter said. Throughout the city,shouts against high food prices mixedwith calls for freedom and an end tothe 33-year regime of President OmarHassan Ahmed Al-Bashir.

Police and plain-clothed state intelli-gence agents have adopted a zero-toler-ance policy, using tear gas, batons andwhips against protesters.

The Sudanese Media Centre (SMC),which is close to the security apparatus,reported that police have been given anorder for ‘‘immediate suppression ofthe demonstrations and rioters, underthe law.’’

London-based watchdog Amnesty Inter-national said ‘‘scores of activists’’ hadbeen arrested.

The demonstrations symbolise ‘‘massrejection of the regime’s oppressive pol-icies and its failure in governing thiscountry,’’ said Sudan Change Now, anactivist youth movement.

Inflation has risen each month, hitting30.4% in May, before Finance MinisterAli Mahmud al-Rasul announced thescrapping of fuel subsidies, causing animmediate jump in the price of petrol.

Bankrupt Sudan has lost billions ofdollars in oil receipts since South Sudangained independence in July 2011 leav-ing the north struggling for revenue,plagued by inflation, and with a severeshortage of dollars to pay for imports.

‘‘The government must immediatelyretract the austerity measures it hasadopted which reflect the distortion inits expenditure which continues to pri-oritise defence and security at theexpense of social services,’’ SudanChange Now said. (� AFP 23 ⁄ 6)

Though the protests in the capital wereostensibly against austerity measures,demonstrators were calling for the gov-ernment’s overthrow: ‘Khartoum riseup, rise up, we won’t be ruled by athief!’ They even marched pastNational Congress Party (NCP) head-quarters in Khartoum North. ‘Peopleare not scared any more – this is whythe government is so scared,’ a veteranleft-wing activist told Africa Confiden-tial.

Protestors were greeted by throngs ofululating women – and by securitypolice, many wielding iron bars. These,often reinforcing rods, are a hallmarkof National Islamic Front (now NCP)militia. Police used them to beat femalestudents when they invaded KhartoumUniversity dormitories on June 17th, abreach of social convention that willstrengthen opposition resolve. Onebrave soul told state television on June20th that this was not about raising sal-aries, it was about receiving them. Suchoutspokenness was unthinkable onlymonths ago. It reminded the publicthat the civilian uprising that oustedPresident Ja’afar Numeiry in 1985began with rioting by shamasha (streetchildren).

Under pressure to negotiate seriouslyover security and oil issues with SouthSudan or face United Nations sanctionsin six weeks, the NCP is running out ofoptions. On June 20th, President OmarHassan Ahmed Al-Bashir called a crisissummit of ministers and state gover-nors. They endorsed his earlierannouncements that fuel subsidieswould end, national and regional gov-ernment would be halved and so wouldthe value of the Sudanese pound to theUS dollar, from Sudanese Pound 2.7 toSDG4.4. Inflation was already over

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